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Charts:: All: 8yr: 4yr: 2yr: 1yrL: 12mo: 5mo: 2mo: 1mo B-6d : : 10d B C: 5d B: 2d B/ BTC : ETH : LTC : mktCap / TestBM

"BTC over $11,000 - my hedge is 20%, and I am sticking with that"

After producing THIS chart...

i2TDYtG.png

... I decided to move to 25% Hedged if BTC hits $12,000.  Orders are in already

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BTC has been stronger than ETH :..... LTC : mktCap :

VCCV4rQ.png

xWFGzQg.png

qA6ZElb.png

 

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No easy trades?

BTC : 10d : alt-settings: 10d-C:110x864(3d)

KLcROfw.png

Just when I started to see a clear pathway to $12,000 - we got a correction from near $11,250.  Still, the uptrend remains in place.

Meantime, ETH is down from $976 to $933 : -$43 = - 4.2%

Other Alt-Coins are down 8-9% against BTC over the last 24 hours

ADA/Cardano, down 8.32% in BTC / Last: 0.00376% BTC = $0.39.

GE1rS0J.png

The drop got more volume when it broke 0.0042% of BTC

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1 hour ago, hector said:

I'd say the trading is still easier than fx pairs. Still, not as easy as last year

Yeah.  maybe fewer surprises.

BTW, what time frames do you trade?

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15 minutes ago, drbubb said:

Yeah.  maybe fewer surprises.

BTW, what time frames do you trade?

I don't actually day trade but I've observed the market for over a year like you and have experience holding positions over several months. 

I think there's little reward for the accompanying stress trading the current market regime. My goal is to continue focusing on strategic medium to long term positions. At the moment the only thing to do is wait, I think bitcoin can go a whole lot lower when the block size issue and the failure of the lightning network is properly priced in. 

I will go long when mainstream media proclaims the death of crypto once again. Honey badger don't care. 

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I am trying to do something beyond: Buy, Hold & Hope. 

I am Now Adjusting my positions a little as I go. But that was not true for most of last year.
The unfortunate thing for 2017 was that I had a very simple plan: Wait for BTC to hit the price of Gold,
and then Hedge.  That strategy assured me a Double on my original investment.
But it also meant that I was almost 100% hedged the whole way up, & gained little as prices rose.
Thank goodness, I retained most of my hedge as it dropped.
So now I am more flexible and adjusting my position and my hedge more aggressively, hoping
to keep a BTC long as the market moves higher, but with more and more hedge as it goes back up.

My account value is > 3X my original cost, which is actually way below where I would be with no hedge at all.

But I see the account value growing again in terms of USD. since I have removed the Hedge

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Weak Alt.Coins

Many Alt-Coins trading on the Bitmex platform look weak... over the last day or more

Coin- Mon. : BTC price-- : 24hrChg/ $10,711
ADA  H18 : 0.00003706: - 8.63%   / $0.397     - Cardano
BCH   H18 : 0.1402        : - 2.30%   /  $1,502    - Bitcoin Cash
DASH H18 : 0.066380   : - 3.33%   /  $711.      - Dash
ETH   H18 : 0.08713      : - 3.29%   /  $933.      - Ethereum
ETC   7D-  : 0.03277       :  - 2.03%  /  $351.      - Ethereum Classic
LTC    H18 : 0.02016      :  - 6.41%  /  $216.      - LiteCoin
NEO   G18 : 0.012070   :   - 4.25%  /  $129.      - Neo
XMR   H18 : 0.029397  :   - 7.68%  /  $315.      - Monero
XRP   H18 : 0.00010540  - 5.27%  /  $   1.13   - Ripple
XLM   H18 : 0.0004268 :  - 6.77%  /  $   4.57   - Stellar
ZEC   H18 : 0.044804   :   - 5.22%  /  $480.      - ZCash
=====
H18= Mar.2018

Example:     ADA / Cardano ... update / Last: ADA  H18 : 0.00003706: - 8.63%  / 39.7 Cents

Y1tjGpI.png

... which may now be Testing/ & breaking an important support level near BTC-0.000037 (0.0000366 x $10,711= $0.3920)

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Original Post on LTC - later edited

LTC / Litecoin ... update / Last: LTC H18 : 0.02016 :  - 6.41%   / $215.93

IMwIshz.png

Can LTC get to $400?  That's almost a double from where it is now ($216)

Anything is possible - that's my usual trading mantra after seeing so much in markets. and especially with Cryptos.

Qfe2KgV.png

After looking at the chart, I see no urgency to buy it.  Here's why

+ LTC HAS been relative stronger than BTC since it made a low below 0.5 BTC in early Dec.
+ (( More ))
Overall, I reckon LTC will need another big surge in Volume to get above the recent 2.5% BTC high

=== Unquote ===

Litecoin, after a nice 20% Pop... more patience was needed, as the price slid back down

Update - to 3/1/2018 ... update

4Rlxrcg.png

 

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Thank you for the technical analysis - something I am not experienced at to the level you are.

I think you are right. No real urgency - let bitcoin lead the alts down first.

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TEST of 10d/5min MA Combinations

Let's see how this one works out ... 10d-#1 :

FWFbzUg.png

If BTC falls from here, it is a decent combination

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Got Lots of Coins?  Better keep it quiet, eh?

In the beach resort of Phuket, Thailand, last month, the assailants pushed their victim, a young Russian man, into his apartment and kept him there, blindfolded, until he logged onto his computer and transferred about $100,000 worth of Bitcoin to an online wallet they controlled.

A few weeks before that, the head of a Bitcoin exchange in Ukraine was taken hostage and only released after the company paid a ransom of $1 million in Bitcoin.

In New York City, a man was held captive by a friend until he transferred over $1.8 million worth of Ether, a virtual currency second in value only to Bitcoin.

> https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/18/technology/virtual-currency-extortion.html

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Some Support for BTC? ... maybe at last ... update : v.3d - Last $10,610

TgLWHQQ.png

As a posted this, the middle uptrend line was broken - That's Bearish!

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10-Day chart - this MA combination (5-min: 110 x 768 ) worked well

BTC ... 10d : 2d :

Suggests most likely will break lower channel, and head lower, according to how I read it

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BTC-March Forward has TESTED $10,000 on relatively high volume,

so there is an excellent chance that level will be tested again, and may even be broken ... 10d : 2d :

g4yYXTE.png

FQEzHAy.png

The retest of $10,000 and the TRENDLINE, if it comes soon, could be setting up a nice Buy.

But I will wait to see the volume (lighter than the last drop is important), and also to see evidence

that it is actually bouncing off the Trendline.

BTW, there was a nice SELL signal inside the Red Circle - Did you see it??

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LONGER TERM:

The 110 day MA looks good on the one year chart : Daily:110dx21d

sVUIxcu.png

 

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Looking for signs we have seen a secondary Low

BT - 5mo

ifuyEhN.png

BT - 1mo : 1dX13d :

cZ0mppf.png

The 1 month chart has some elements of a Low - at near 9,400 (21d-MA, hit yesterday) ... 5d : 2d :

JcKOcjM.png

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COMMENTS from the Viber Chat

10d chart : 15-min: 167x2106(21d)

rXmkeD5.png

Not many recently, as I wait patiently for a Buy signal (w/o buying yet)
(Feb.22)
+ The retest of $10,000 and the TRENDLINE, if it comes soon, could be setting up a nice Buy.
But I will wait to see the volume (lighter than the last drop is important), and also to see evidence
that it is actually bouncing off the Trendline.
BTW, there was a nice SELL signal inside the Red Circle - Did you see it??
+ SEE CHARTS on GEI - going with the signal above
+ BROKE HARD now ... $9880
+ But volume is lighter.  $9700 coming maybe
+ BOUNCED off $9,712... might nibble on a retest there (but set-up looked wrong)
(Feb.23)
+ As low as $9600 overnight. A bit higher now.  Presently, I am targeting $9200-9300, but may adjust that
(Feb.25)
+ Putting in some Buy orders now... near $9400 and lower on March

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OVERNIGHT BUYING - with my orders left in getting Hit

Looking Good! - 5mo : 3mo : 1mo : 10d : 2d :

CmAnhq1.png

(posted this morning, 2/26):

+ Several BUY orders left in overnight got fille, and my Hedge position has come down

+ Hedge reduced from near 26% to 18.5% Now. If BTC rallies from here, usdNAV will increase faster, with less hedge

+ Also, I have gained some profits in BTC terms.  The account balance is Now around 0.625 BTC, up from about 0.600 BTC when the BTC price was last near $9500. That's a 4,2% gain in BTC. Not a huge win, but it shows you can gain Bitcoins through trading, not just through mining. The Gain in BTC, worth just : 0.025xBTC = $238 at $9500

That is Not huge, Not impressive even as a percentage. But I am expecting these gains to get bigger when I gain more confidence in my Chart methods and MA choices - and trade more aggressively. So keep watching, and see how I go.

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BEST BUY in Weeks?

BETTING on the 21d MA (that is 120 periods on a Hourly, 24hr chart) ... 12mo : 5mo : 3mo : x : 2d :

NPFCvyB.png

Here are some comments I posted to a Viber friend:

+ Looks like the BTC price is taking another dip. I will watch the volume to decide if I want to close down more of my hedge - about $1100 / 18.5% is left now

+ I am doing more small buying in my acct - if we get a decent bounce from about $9400, I may step it up

+ The support is holding okay, so I am buying more to reduce my Hedge. You may want to add some BTC here. But leave some powder dry just in case

+ Best Buying opportunity in many days (or weeks) may be set up here

+ To be right about this the 21d MA (near $9,400) needs to hold, and price push higher.

2day chart - 1 min ... update

lPaAMAH.png

+ Pushed down my Hedge to just 11%

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I called it "a coiled spring" yesterday, as I was buying March 2018 BTC forwards at below $9.400

BTC Spot ... 1 mo :

lQFC8N6.png

The price is now up almost 10% from yesterday's lows

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A tag-along trade in BCH?

I bought into Bitcoin Cash (BCH-Mar) using the Bitmex Forward

KspURNF.png

Often the Alt-coins have gained some momentum when BTC moves higher, they have seem to be more "leveraged".

In edit - BCH (in BTC) dropped to a longer term trendline

CVkA3TB.jpg

Let's see if this trade works again.  Volume is light so far, as it is relatively weak (so far)

Having said that - The Reality today is something very different!
XBT: +10.17% / LTC:-11.59%, ETH:-6.82%, DASH:-5.33%, BCH:-0.32%

in edit: where are the buyers?

LhGtEjk.gif

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A RISE TO (about)  $12,000 may be coming fairly soon

BTS spot ... 5mo :

https://i.imgur.com/N0uHSLc.png

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The Run-up from $9300 to $11.000+ (+18.3%) may need a little more correction

BTS ... 10d

EBHEiiZ.png

 I did do a tiny sale at near $11,000, because I thought it was moving up too fast

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