drbubb Posted February 18, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 Charts:: All: 8yr: 4yr: 2yr: 1yrL: 12mo: 5mo: 2mo: 1mo B-6d : : 10d B C: 5d B: 2d B/ BTC : ETH : LTC : mktCap / TestBM "BTC over $11,000 - my hedge is 20%, and I am sticking with that" After producing THIS chart... ... I decided to move to 25% Hedged if BTC hits $12,000. Orders are in already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted February 18, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 BTC has been stronger than ETH :..... LTC : mktCap : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted February 18, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 No easy trades? BTC : 10d : alt-settings: 10d-C:110x864(3d) Just when I started to see a clear pathway to $12,000 - we got a correction from near $11,250. Still, the uptrend remains in place. Meantime, ETH is down from $976 to $933 : -$43 = - 4.2% Other Alt-Coins are down 8-9% against BTC over the last 24 hours ADA/Cardano, down 8.32% in BTC / Last: 0.00376% BTC = $0.39. The drop got more volume when it broke 0.0042% of BTC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hector Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 I'd say the trading is still easier than fx pairs. Still, not as easy as last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted February 18, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 1 hour ago, hector said: I'd say the trading is still easier than fx pairs. Still, not as easy as last year Yeah. maybe fewer surprises. BTW, what time frames do you trade? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hector Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 15 minutes ago, drbubb said: Yeah. maybe fewer surprises. BTW, what time frames do you trade? I don't actually day trade but I've observed the market for over a year like you and have experience holding positions over several months. I think there's little reward for the accompanying stress trading the current market regime. My goal is to continue focusing on strategic medium to long term positions. At the moment the only thing to do is wait, I think bitcoin can go a whole lot lower when the block size issue and the failure of the lightning network is properly priced in. I will go long when mainstream media proclaims the death of crypto once again. Honey badger don't care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted February 18, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 I am trying to do something beyond: Buy, Hold & Hope. I am Now Adjusting my positions a little as I go. But that was not true for most of last year. The unfortunate thing for 2017 was that I had a very simple plan: Wait for BTC to hit the price of Gold, and then Hedge. That strategy assured me a Double on my original investment. But it also meant that I was almost 100% hedged the whole way up, & gained little as prices rose. Thank goodness, I retained most of my hedge as it dropped. So now I am more flexible and adjusting my position and my hedge more aggressively, hoping to keep a BTC long as the market moves higher, but with more and more hedge as it goes back up. My account value is > 3X my original cost, which is actually way below where I would be with no hedge at all. But I see the account value growing again in terms of USD. since I have removed the Hedge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted February 18, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 Weak Alt.Coins Many Alt-Coins trading on the Bitmex platform look weak... over the last day or more Coin- Mon. : BTC price-- : 24hrChg/ $10,711ADA H18 : 0.00003706: - 8.63% / $0.397 - Cardano BCH H18 : 0.1402 : - 2.30% / $1,502 - Bitcoin Cash DASH H18 : 0.066380 : - 3.33% / $711. - Dash ETH H18 : 0.08713 : - 3.29% / $933. - Ethereum ETC 7D- : 0.03277 : - 2.03% / $351. - Ethereum Classic LTC H18 : 0.02016 : - 6.41% / $216. - LiteCoin NEO G18 : 0.012070 : - 4.25% / $129. - Neo XMR H18 : 0.029397 : - 7.68% / $315. - Monero XRP H18 : 0.00010540 - 5.27% / $ 1.13 - Ripple XLM H18 : 0.0004268 : - 6.77% / $ 4.57 - Stellar ZEC H18 : 0.044804 : - 5.22% / $480. - ZCash ===== H18= Mar.2018 Example: ADA / Cardano ... update / Last: ADA H18 : 0.00003706: - 8.63% / 39.7 Cents ... which may now be Testing/ & breaking an important support level near BTC-0.000037 (0.0000366 x $10,711= $0.3920) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hector Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 How attractive do you think Litecoin looks? Can it retest the $400 level? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted February 18, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 Original Post on LTC - later edited LTC / Litecoin ... update / Last: LTC H18 : 0.02016 : - 6.41% / $215.93 Can LTC get to $400? That's almost a double from where it is now ($216) Anything is possible - that's my usual trading mantra after seeing so much in markets. and especially with Cryptos. After looking at the chart, I see no urgency to buy it. Here's why + LTC HAS been relative stronger than BTC since it made a low below 0.5 BTC in early Dec. + (( More )) Overall, I reckon LTC will need another big surge in Volume to get above the recent 2.5% BTC high === Unquote === Litecoin, after a nice 20% Pop... more patience was needed, as the price slid back down Update - to 3/1/2018 ... update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hector Posted February 19, 2018 Report Share Posted February 19, 2018 Thank you for the technical analysis - something I am not experienced at to the level you are. I think you are right. No real urgency - let bitcoin lead the alts down first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted February 19, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 19, 2018 TEST of 10d/5min MA Combinations Let's see how this one works out ... 10d-#1 : If BTC falls from here, it is a decent combination Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted February 19, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 19, 2018 Got Lots of Coins? Better keep it quiet, eh? In the beach resort of Phuket, Thailand, last month, the assailants pushed their victim, a young Russian man, into his apartment and kept him there, blindfolded, until he logged onto his computer and transferred about $100,000 worth of Bitcoin to an online wallet they controlled. A few weeks before that, the head of a Bitcoin exchange in Ukraine was taken hostage and only released after the company paid a ransom of $1 million in Bitcoin. In New York City, a man was held captive by a friend until he transferred over $1.8 million worth of Ether, a virtual currency second in value only to Bitcoin. > https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/18/technology/virtual-currency-extortion.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted February 21, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 21, 2018 Some Support for BTC? ... maybe at last ... update : v.3d - Last $10,610 As a posted this, the middle uptrend line was broken - That's Bearish! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted February 21, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 21, 2018 10-Day chart - this MA combination (5-min: 110 x 768 ) worked well BTC ... 10d : 2d : Suggests most likely will break lower channel, and head lower, according to how I read it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted February 22, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 22, 2018 BTC-March Forward has TESTED $10,000 on relatively high volume, so there is an excellent chance that level will be tested again, and may even be broken ... 10d : 2d : The retest of $10,000 and the TRENDLINE, if it comes soon, could be setting up a nice Buy. But I will wait to see the volume (lighter than the last drop is important), and also to see evidence that it is actually bouncing off the Trendline. BTW, there was a nice SELL signal inside the Red Circle - Did you see it?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted February 22, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 22, 2018 LONGER TERM: The 110 day MA looks good on the one year chart : Daily:110dx21d Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted February 25, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 25, 2018 Looking for signs we have seen a secondary Low BT - 5mo BT - 1mo : 1dX13d : The 1 month chart has some elements of a Low - at near 9,400 (21d-MA, hit yesterday) ... 5d : 2d : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted February 25, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 25, 2018 COMMENTS from the Viber Chat 10d chart : 15-min: 167x2106(21d) Not many recently, as I wait patiently for a Buy signal (w/o buying yet)(Feb.22) + The retest of $10,000 and the TRENDLINE, if it comes soon, could be setting up a nice Buy. But I will wait to see the volume (lighter than the last drop is important), and also to see evidence that it is actually bouncing off the Trendline. BTW, there was a nice SELL signal inside the Red Circle - Did you see it?? + SEE CHARTS on GEI - going with the signal above + BROKE HARD now ... $9880 + But volume is lighter. $9700 coming maybe + BOUNCED off $9,712... might nibble on a retest there (but set-up looked wrong)(Feb.23) + As low as $9600 overnight. A bit higher now. Presently, I am targeting $9200-9300, but may adjust that(Feb.25) + Putting in some Buy orders now... near $9400 and lower on March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted February 26, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 26, 2018 OVERNIGHT BUYING - with my orders left in getting Hit Looking Good! - 5mo : 3mo : 1mo : 10d : 2d : (posted this morning, 2/26): + Several BUY orders left in overnight got fille, and my Hedge position has come down + Hedge reduced from near 26% to 18.5% Now. If BTC rallies from here, usdNAV will increase faster, with less hedge + Also, I have gained some profits in BTC terms. The account balance is Now around 0.625 BTC, up from about 0.600 BTC when the BTC price was last near $9500. That's a 4,2% gain in BTC. Not a huge win, but it shows you can gain Bitcoins through trading, not just through mining. The Gain in BTC, worth just : 0.025xBTC = $238 at $9500 That is Not huge, Not impressive even as a percentage. But I am expecting these gains to get bigger when I gain more confidence in my Chart methods and MA choices - and trade more aggressively. So keep watching, and see how I go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted February 26, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 26, 2018 BEST BUY in Weeks? BETTING on the 21d MA (that is 120 periods on a Hourly, 24hr chart) ... 12mo : 5mo : 3mo : x : 2d : Here are some comments I posted to a Viber friend: + Looks like the BTC price is taking another dip. I will watch the volume to decide if I want to close down more of my hedge - about $1100 / 18.5% is left now + I am doing more small buying in my acct - if we get a decent bounce from about $9400, I may step it up + The support is holding okay, so I am buying more to reduce my Hedge. You may want to add some BTC here. But leave some powder dry just in case + Best Buying opportunity in many days (or weeks) may be set up here + To be right about this the 21d MA (near $9,400) needs to hold, and price push higher. 2day chart - 1 min ... update + Pushed down my Hedge to just 11% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted February 27, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 27, 2018 I called it "a coiled spring" yesterday, as I was buying March 2018 BTC forwards at below $9.400 BTC Spot ... 1 mo : The price is now up almost 10% from yesterday's lows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted February 27, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 27, 2018 A tag-along trade in BCH? I bought into Bitcoin Cash (BCH-Mar) using the Bitmex Forward Often the Alt-coins have gained some momentum when BTC moves higher, they have seem to be more "leveraged". In edit - BCH (in BTC) dropped to a longer term trendline Let's see if this trade works again. Volume is light so far, as it is relatively weak (so far) Having said that - The Reality today is something very different!XBT: +10.17% / LTC:-11.59%, ETH:-6.82%, DASH:-5.33%, BCH:-0.32% in edit: where are the buyers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted February 27, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 27, 2018 A RISE TO (about) $12,000 may be coming fairly soon BTS spot ... 5mo : https://i.imgur.com/N0uHSLc.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted February 28, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2018 The Run-up from $9300 to $11.000+ (+18.3%) may need a little more correction BTS ... 10d I did do a tiny sale at near $11,000, because I thought it was moving up too fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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