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CryptoCATS Chat (Public) ... http://tinyurl.com/cryptoCats > main charts thread


This is the main Forum for the Crypto Meet-up & Viber Chat Group.
The first trial meeting will happen at 9:30am, One Hour before the next REINTA Meetup.
That is Sat. Feb.10 at Seattle's Best - Corner of Dela Rosa and Palanca St., Makati PH.
We will have a general discussion about Crypto's, and maybe discuss a project
that I am considering: A Crypto Currency Trading mentoring program.
The Crypto talk will end sharply at 10:30, when the Usual REINTA Meetup
begins.  If there is an interest in doing so, and people cannot come early,
then we may (also?) meet after the REINTA, possibly at a different location.
COMMENTS on this idea are welcome.  M.H./ "dr Bubb"


Learning Experience? I am still learning the idiosyncraticies of trading BTC, and I am aiming to optimize ST entry & exit points using MA's and other trading signals.

BTC trades 24-hours, and so the ST moving averages are different than for stocks & commodities.

I may change some of the MA-periods in the links below, as I acquire more experience.

KEY MAs : All: 8yr: 4yr: 2yr: 1yrL: 12mo: 5mo: 2mo: 1mo B-6d : : 10d B C: 5d B: 2d B/ BTC : ETH : LTC : mktCap / TestBM

Almost Live / Recent prices over 5-days


(( Historical charts )) : 8yr : 2yr :


2-yrs w/Weekly price data : 2yr-w.D : 2yr :



CryptoCATS Chat:
(8 original members were on a Viber chat started the same day as this chat / now XX members)

INVITE Yourself : LINK : To cryptoCATS chat (host: DrBubb):


=== Related MeetUps ===

REINTA Property Meet-Up    :

BGC CC Meetup / 2nd THU : CryptoTalk Manila - Discuss, Trade & Network

Bitcoin China, 2017 thread : The Bitcoin Jump of 2017

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/ Beyond the day-to-day chatting about market trends, opportunities, and methods... /

" I am considering: A Crypto Currency Trading mentoring program "

I want to give some flavor for the sorts of things that Traders interested in the Mentoring program might be focusing upon

Of course, and Big Part of it will be... WHERE TO, and HOW TO,  and I will be sharing my own experience in this field


In the mentoring sessions (assuming they happen),  I will talk about how people can set up a low risk BTC investing & trading activity.  I have been doing a Trading & Hedging activity intensively for Cryptos for over a year, and so have some real experience with my charts & systems.  Plus I have many DECADES of profitable trading in a wide range of investing and trading areas.

WARNING: No one can make money all the time.  But if you understand the risks, you can manage them, and gain an edge over other traders.

 I will put together some charts taken from Real time so you can see if any of this stuff works - It doesn't work all the time. but it works often enough to give a trader an edge, if he understands it.  There still remain many challenges in trading.  MAIN ONE: is getting over-confident when you are on a hot streak.

Common Pattern

 I have seen many people trade very carefully over days, weeks, or months, and then get into a HOT streak, which after a while causes them to become much less careful.  Then in a very short time, they blow all their profits.  I have done this myself.  But I usually manage to hold onto a piece of what I made


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REAL TRADE - from an actual Live discussion on the CryptoCats Viber Chat

Earlier Today I posted this: (with some minor edits)

"Here at/below BTC-8900 region, I will be adding to my BTC longs"

"I will share a chart showing why shortly.  This should be a good trade if the support at/near the support level(s) holds: / 2d: 49x890 : 49x384 :


"The Green line is an obvious support level, but it isn't the only one - there are others too.
I have two main ways to identify support levels: Fibonacci retracement levels, and Moving Averages.
8,900 is the HIGHEST support level that I would want to trade at."

Identifying "Fibonacci Support Levels"
9500 H:
8150 L: Low : +Chg. + Low :: Support Levels
1350 x .618 = 832 + 8150 = $8,982
1350 x .500 = 675 + 8150 = $8,825
1350 x .382 = 516 + 8150 = $8,666

Later: My main line in the sand is 8666 - that level now looks like it will get tested


I added some minor BTC longs near 8666 and above

I also watch moving averages, and these were an important reason that I considering going long today.

Very recently the was a Moving Average crossover ("MA Cross") that looked bullish:


This 10 day period shows movements in BTC prices in 5-minute packets.  It was Bearish, when the 84-period MA (see Red down arrow) broke below the long term 500-period early on the 29th of Jan. and BTC subsequently lost about 3800 points - 33% in just 4 1/2 days, falling from about $11,500 to eventually hit a low below $7,700.  I considered it potentially Bullish yesterday on Feb 3rd, when the ...

One Year MA ... update :


5-Months ... update :




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CHANGING settings : Short term MA Cross - on the 2-day charts

(from the Viber chat):

After the previous  BEARISH short term MA Cross, BTC dropped to $7,800.  

Now we finally got a bullish MA Cross on the 2 day chart ... Update  : 2d-as revised: 207/cc


Let's see how long this bullish signal lasts.

It did not work well, prices have turned down again.  And so I have revised the 2d-X-MA's that I am using.

I moved from 1st-MA's : 49 x 890 / to New-MA's: 208 x 890*


This is how I try to perfect this signal... through Trial and error.

Watching the 2Day chart for BTC is something new for me, so I am very ready to make changes in the MA's that I use.

The longer periods I have been using more frequently.  And BTC has some special quirks because it trades 24 hours


*Why these "weird" numbers: 49, 208, 890? for 1-minute charts?

Once again, it is based on the Fibonacci expansion.  I have found these MA's work well in most markets.

Here's how I get them...

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Two Month Chart suggests the BTC could go lower ... 2-mo : 1-mo : : 10d : 5d : 2d :


I would have to Target something like $7700-7800, perhaps a bit lower.

I note that: High: $19,800 (say) x 38.2% = $7,564


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Fibonacci retracement is a very popular tool among technical traders and is based on the key numbers identified by mathematician Leonardo Fibonacci in the thirteenth century. However, Fibonacci's sequence of numbers is not as important as the mathematical relationships, expressed as ratios, between the numbers in the series.

In technical analysis, Fibonacci retracement is created by taking two extreme points (usually a major peak and trough) on a stock chart and dividing the vertical distance by the key Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% and 100%. Once these levels are identified, horizontal lines are drawn and used to identify possible support and resistance levels. Before we can understand why these ratios were chosen, we need to have a better understanding of the Fibonacci number series. (For a more in-depth discussion of this subject, see Fibonacci And The Golden Ratio.)

[ Fibonacci retracement is a popular technical indicator that can become even more powerful when used in conjunction with other indicators. If you want to learn more about this as well as how to transform patterns into actionable trading plans, Investopedia Academy's technical analysis course is a great start. ]

The Fibonacci sequence of numbers is as follows: 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, etc. Each term in this sequence is simply the sum of the two preceding terms and the sequence continues infinitely. One of the remarkable characteristics of this numerical sequence is that each number is approximately 1.618 times greater than the preceding number. This common relationship between every number in the series is the foundation of the common ratios used in retracement studies.

The key Fibonacci ratio of 61.8% - also referred to as "the golden ratio" or "the golden mean" - is found by dividing one number in the series by the number that follows it. For example: 8/13 = 0.6153, and 55/89 = 0.6179.
The 38.2% ratio is found by dividing one number in the series by the number that is found two places to the right. For example: 55/144 = 0.3819.
The 23.6% ratio is found by dividing one number in the series by the number that is three places to the right. For example: 8/34 = 0.2352.
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fibonacci_retracement


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THE "ideal" Bitcoin BOTTOM that did not hold... as Negative News poured out

Yesterday's drop was a shocker for some.  Those who use Fibonacci numbers as a key part of their analysis might have expect BTC Prices to hold above $7400.

That's a logical support level, using Peak Price x Fibo. Ratio, or $19,500 x 38.2% = $7,450. 

But that bottom which would have been something like a retest of the Feb 2nd Low did not hold.  Here's what happened instead : Update-10d chart : 5d :


A lower Low of about $6,000 was made. (That's 30.8% of the peak price - a number of no particular Fibonacci significance, as far as I know.)

Why did it go so low?

There was some very strongly negative news from China, which made the front page of the SCMP in Hong Kong:

Bitcoin bombs below US$7,000 as sell-off accelerates amid bank bans ...

China puts the final nail in the cryptocurrency coffin. Bullion edged higher as other safe havens – the yen, Swiss franc and European bonds – also gained. Weeks of negative news and commercial setbacks have buffeted digital tokens. A growing number of big credit-card issuers have said they're halting ...

Beijing bans bitcoin, but when did it all go wrong for cryptocurrencies ...

After conducting investigations at China's three biggest bitcoin exchanges – BTC China, Huobi and OkCoin – in Beijing and Shanghai, the central bank accuses them of a lack of internal risk controls and ...

No chart analysis can overcome really powerful negative surprises such as was contained in these articles.

The good news is that prices are now back up to about $7,400 as I write this - the price is retesting the breakdown point, which is now resistance.

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We finally got a nice Bullish Cross (at about $6,500) on the 2d-chart ... update


If we also get a series Bullish crosses on the Longer charts, and a important Bottom might be in place

I am watching the area between $7000-7500 for a possible Bullish cross (or not) on the 5d chart

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Overnoght there was a bullish cross (near $7000) on the 5d and 10d charts


Next test the Bulls will be watching is the Downtrend Line at the Top of the channel - presently near $8000

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MONTHLY Charts - optimizing the Moving Averages (for 15-minute period charts)

Which moving averages to try?  Here are some different methods to choose MA's to test

24hours x 15min(x4 each hr) = 96 periods PER DAY

96 : x3days= 288 / x5days= 480 / x8days= 768

For under one day, and using Fibo. multipliers:
96 < 0.618: 59.3 / .382: 36.7
96 > 1.618: 155 x 1.618: 251 x 1.618: 407 x 1.618: 658 x 1.618:


TWO MONTH charts, optimizing

24hours x 30min(x2 each hr) = 48 periods
48 : x3days= 144 / x5days= 240 / x8days= 384 / x13d= 624
48 x 384 periods / 8d



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See the Contrast !  Which trend will win, 2 days or 2 months?

5 days ... update


2 months ... update


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E-wave count by reader on Tony Caldaro's Blog



another / different count = More Bullish

BTC seems to have bottomed

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Is the Bitcoin LOW in Place?

That's the question that kept coming up at the Meet-Up I went to in BGC last night

My answer: It might be.

The Elliottwave / E-wave counts (just above) show two main possibilities

+ A-case: Low not yet in place, after a rally to $10,000 (or so), the Low at $6,000 will retested - or even lower

+ B-case: Low in place, Bitcoin prices should work their way up to $19,000-20,000, and maybe higher

I am not yet ready to favor B, but i might move to that as my preferred case, if today's action looks right.

I especially want to see a price jump above the red downtrend line in the charts below, and more Volume to the Upside

( following are the main charts I will be watching today )

The Battle of the MA's - still underway

2 Month Chart / 30 min : 48x384 update (1dx8d) :


5d - 5 min / 84x500 (xx) :



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+/ cypto-CATS viber chat: https://invite.viber.com/?g=3DIy3ubIV0czRAFERkWjYR_Yyz_0Xny-

+/ We will discuss Cryptos briefly in the pre-meetup (930-1030) Feb 10th
Before the Manila REIN Real Estate Meetup, starting at 1030
Venue: Seattle Best Coffee, cnr Dela Rosa & Palanca St., Makati
> https://www.meetup.com/Manila-Real-Estate-Investors/events/247383103/

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today's break (to the downside) may prove to be a false break ... 10-d :


Struggling back now ... 2-mo :


In edit/ that break on the 10day chart was first, so now I redraw it, using "B" parameters / 10d: 5min(288): 110x1440 (-2fx5d)




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Cyrpto Rich List


Bitcoin billionaires turn to millionaires ...crypto world gets cold feet

Last week, Forbes Magazine, known for tracking the world’s most wealthy individuals, published a new rich list. The “Crypto billionaire’s club”, a who’s who of those who have the most valuable stakes in cryptocurrency, looked like the coming of age for a new wave of tech geeks who had become extraordinarily wealthy.

At the top of the list was Chris Larsen, the co-founder of the Ripple currency, with a net worth of up to $8bn (£5.8bn). Others included Zhao Changpeng, the founder of the mega Bitcoin exchange Binance, and Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, the identical twin rowers who invested millions in Bitcoin after suing Mark Zuckerberg, claiming he stole the idea for Facebook from them.

But there was a catch. By the time Forbes had got around to publishing the list, most of the 10 “billionaires” on the list were no longer worth that much

> MORE: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2018/02/10/bitcoin-billionaires-turn-millionaires-cryptocurrency-world/

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TEST of Support needed?

BTS ... 10d : B : 5d : 2d


Looks like BTC prices may need to test likely support at about $7800-7900

More Lines:


The second chart shows channel support at a higher level than $7800-7900

Bitcoin Hedge (or not) position through time
01/31: 0.5975 x$9897 -(000)=5913:0029:$9926Mar(1100):5931/(0500:08.4%):+0321:10218 +600
02/09: 0.6100 x$8440 -(000)=5148:0010:$8450Mar(0950):5155/(0000:00.0%):+0040:$8480 +950, 0.012
02/12: 0.6096 x$8524 -(000)=5196:0010:$8524Mar(0950):5196/(0000:00.0%):+0018:$8542 +950, 0.0107
-Bonus,0.225 x$8524= $1918/ Core: 3278: H:4588/ 1310/0.6096=2129: 10,673= new high on core

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Bitcoin prices are still in an uptrend on 10d chart ... update


But in downtrend on longer term ... 2-mos :



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A NICE POP-UP in the BTC price over the last few hours, and the test of 10,000 seems to be underway. 

This is important resistance, and it may take some stronger volume to get through it (High Green lines are what I want to see in this chart)
BTC : 1yr : 2mo : 10d-B :


At this stage, I will give it at least a 50% chance of making it through $10,000.   If the volume grows (^green lines) as the test occurs, the odds rise


If the volume flags as it tests resistance, then the odds shrink --- all IMHO, of course.

10d-B :


Before BTC can get to $10,000, the price will have to push thru likely near term resistance at/near $9700/

Bitcoin breaks back above $9000 as volume falls

MarketWatch-9 hours ago
Prices of digital currencies rallied early Wednesday with the No.1 cryptocurrency, bitcoin, trading through $9,000 a coin to an intraday high of $9,367.95—an 11 day high. After falling early February, bitcoin BTCUSD, +8.43% prices have steadily clawed back losses despite some negative press around its ...

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Jumping the Gun - so BTC could not Jump resistance at $10,000

BTC got very close - but a Seller jumped in and Sold - before it could touch $10,000.  It was only a little short and the June forward traded at $10,160 or more.

BTC ... 2-day /


There is a good chance there will be another try... but I cannot guarantee it

(in edit - here's what happened afterwards):



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"I HAVE NO TARGET" - that is what I told a poster on the Viber chat

Q: What are your projections for until end of Feb?

A: hmm. I don't operate that way.

I don't try to tell the market where to go (that doesn't work!) I let it tell me where it is going. Trend is up now, and I might go back from 2% Hedge to 0% Hedge, if a dip comes, and the chart looks right

(Here's a guy that doesn't mind tossing out some target prices"):

Bitcoin Strategist sees a New High by July

Bitcoin rose above $10,000 on Thursday for the first time in more than two weeks, as investors bought back the digital currency after having fallen 70 percent from its all-time peak hit in mid-December.

Bitcoin has been buffeted this year by a series of negative headlines centering around increased scrutiny by global regulators. There has also been the incidence of hacks on exchanges, the latest being the theft of roughly $532.9 million in digital money from Tokyo-based cryptocurrency exchange Coincheck a few weeks ago.

The first digital currency was also affected by the risk-off mood that permeated financial markets since the beginning of the year, undermining views that bitcoin’s price moves are generally uncorrelated to other asset classes. Sentiment on risk assets such as stocks and bitcoin has since improved.

Thomas Lee, managing partner at Fundstrat Global Advisors, sees a new record peak for bitcoin by July, based on the currency’s 22 corrections since 2010.

On the Luxembourg-based Bitstamp, bitcoin rose as high as $10,234 BTC=BTSP and was last at $10,123.12, up nearly 7 percent on the day.

“Bitcoin’s increase has coincided with the rally in global stock markets,” said Miles Eakers, chief market analyst, at FX brokerage Centtrip, adding that a sustained break above $10,000 could open the $12,000 level.

Other digital currencies also rose after posting steep losses the last few weeks. Ethereum, the second-largest by market value, was up 2.5 percent over the past 24 hours at $933.24, while the third-largest, Ripple, gained 5.3 percent to $1.15, according to cryptocurrency price tracker coinmarketcap.com.

Fundstrat’s Lee said bitcoin is still in a bull market phase even after a 70 percent selloff.

“During bull periods, bitcoin recoveries take 1.7 times the duration of the decline and implies that 85 days are needed to recover prior highs—this is July 2018,” Lee said.

He added that 2018 will remain a strong year for cryptocurrencies, but he sees the larger and more established blockchain networks such as bitcoin and ethereum dominating again.




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You need an idea for your own story in case the market tries to tell you a different one by the time price reaches your zone. It's all about the narratives people tell themselves.

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LIke a good scientist. willing to have his theory falsified, a good trader must be willing to admit when his narrative is wrong,

and no longer fits the reality he is seeing.  For me, trendlines and moving averages can help me to test my market view (& trading positions)

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Ethereum has rallied back to important Resistance

ETH ...


It could push through, or fall back from here.

Meantime, remember THIS BTC chart from above?


BTC could also be at important resistance (near $10,000)

BTC ... 5-mos


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Big Seller shows his hand... on the Bitmex platform

BTS / BitStamp market prices ... 5d :


I was watching as the seller came in on Bitmex / March 2018 forward, and I posted these comments:

[ Saturday, February 17, 2018 8:13 AM ] dr bubb: Huge Seller now ($1.1 million plus) on Bitmex
: He is moving up and down, but mainly pushing price down to $10,100
: Getting whittled down as some pieces come off the sale
: Now under $500k, and pieces got sold
: Mkt Now 130k / 480k tight, near $10,120 / That's March 2018 BTC
: The Seller is gone now, looks like he got over $500k done before leaving
: Correction: much less than that was done on Bitmex.  He must have been working multiple platforms
: Seller back. at $995k now, near $10,100 on March
: He's at $10,090 - with little done, driving price lower
: He disappeared again... maybe to see if price wud rise
: Price is now up to $10,160, and the Big Seller has not returned

note: (IN EDIT): after seller left, the price did shoot up to at least $10,277

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