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drbubb

DrBubb's Diary - Feb. 2018 Trading - v.109

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Top of Page Charts (Odd) : Channel-GE : MP : PP : Charts : Acore : Fringe : Ag B E G H :

t24_au_en_usoz_6.gif : 24hr-euro-small.gif : t24_au_en_euoz_2.gif : AuTD1.png?id=11409261605

idx24_russell_en_2.gif : t24_ag_en_usoz_2.gif:: idx24_hui_en_2.gif : AgTD0.png?id=11409221912

3d : ag : au / Btc / 8yr: 12mo : 5m : 2m : 1m : 25 10 5d 2d :

China/SGE: 4,200 RMB/kg / 6.150 = $ 683 / 35.274 = $19.36 (discount of about 20-25 cents?)

Goldstock : HK-2840 : GBS.L : GLD : GDX : NUGT : tza/faz -- HKpeg : DXY : StkX : 10-d : SPX : sjw : img :

HK 3081: 2899: 1051: hs / UK: POG / ABX : Sil : IAG : dba-etc. ... lot : PB : CVN : CC2 : BTC 1m 2d : SLV-lv

==========================================

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WEEKLY Price Changes /

Oil falls (-9.6%). More than stocks (-5.1%) as people talk "Stock Crash".

But China stocks fall almost 9%.

==== : Fye'16  : Fye'17 : +-%chg :  01/05 :  01/12 :  01/19 :  01/26 :  02/02 :  02/09 :
Gold : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1322.3 : 1334.5 : 1333.1 : 1352.1 : 1337.3 : 1315.7 : - 1.62%
GLD- : 109.61 : 123.65 : +12.8% : 125.33 : 126.96 : 126.42 : 127.35 : 126.39 : 124.77 :
SPY- : 223.53 : 266.86 : +19.4% : 273.42 : 277.92 : 280.41 : 284.68 : 275.45 : 261.50 : - 5.07%
SPX- : 2238.8 : 2673.6 : +19.4% : 2743.2 : 2786.2 : 2810.3 : 2872.9 : 2762.1 : 2619.6 :
Sp/Au 194.4%: 204.2%: ====== : 207.5%: 208.5%: 210.8% : 212.5%: 206.5% : 199.1% :
Silvr : 16.580 : 17.150 : +3.44% :  17.285 : 17.140 : 17.040 : 17.130 : 16.710 : 16.140 :
SLV- : $15.64 : $15.98 : +2.08% : $16.22 : $16.27 : $16.05 : $16.41 : $15.66 : $15.39 :
XLE : $75.32 : $72.24 : -4.09%: $74.97 : $77.42 : $76.38: $77.51 : $72.46 : $66.67 : - 8.00%
WTIc: $53.72 : $60.42 : +12.4% : $61.44 : $64.30 : $63.31 : $66.14 : $65.45 : $59.20 : - 9.55%
Au/Wt:  r-21.4 :  r-21.7 : ====== :  r21.52 : r20.75 : r-21.06 : r-20.44 : r-20.43 : r-22.22 :
Ngas: $3.350 : $2.950 : - 11.9% : $2.795 : $3.200 : $3.180 : $3.180 : $2.850 : $3.030 :
Cop'r: $2.510 : $3.305 : +31.7% : $3.230 : $3.220 : $3.190 : $3.190 : $3.190 : $2.580 :
CRB- : 192.51 : 193.86 : +0.07% : 193.45 : 196.06 : 195.50 : 200.52 : 197.44 : 188.51 :
Corn : 352.00 : 350.75 : - 0.36% : 351.25 : 346.25 : 352.50 : 356.50 : 361.50 : 362.00 :
Weat : 408.00 : 426.25 : +4.47% : 430.75 : 420.50 : 422.75 : 441.00 : 446.75 : 449.00 :
DBA : $19.97 : $18.76 : -6.06%: $18.83 : $18.56: $18.63: $18.91 : $18.97 : $18.82 : - 0.79%
D/crb: 10.37% :  9.67% : ====== : 9.73%  :  9.47%  :  9.53% :  9.47% :  9.61% :  9.98% :
Xle/D : r- 3.77 : r- 3.85 :  +2.14% :  r- 3.98 :  r- 4.17 :  r- 4.10 : r- 4.10 :  r- 3.82 :
DXY- : 102.38 : $92.30 : - 9.85% : $92.01 : $90.90 : $90.37 : $89.35 : $89.19 : $90.33 :
====
Gold : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1322.3 : 1334.5 : 1333.1 : 1352.1 : 1337.3 : 1315.7 : - 1.62%
Au/hd: r1.401 : r1.58E : ====== : r1.584 : r-1.610 : r-1.575 : r-1.589 : r-1.589 : r-1.603 :
Hold : 822.17 : 830.00 : +01.0% : 834.86 : 828.96 : 846.67 : 851.06 : 841.35 : 820.71 :
GDX- : $20.92 : $23.24 : +11.1% : $23.67: $24.01 : $23.65 : $24.35 : $22.91 : $21.68 :
WPM: $19.32 : $22.27 : +15.3% : $21.95 : $21.90 : $22.20 : $22.16 : $21.13 : $19.02 :
Gdxj : $31.55 : $34.13 : +8.18% : $34.48 : $34.94 : $34.40 : $34.79 : $32.29 : $30.63 :
PHM: $18.38 : $33.34 : +81.4% : $34.54 : $34.48 : $34.60 : $34.52 : $30.70 : $28.71 :
EEM- : $35.01 : $47.30 : +35.1% : $49.13 : $49.51 : $50.44 : $51.29 : $49.05 : $46.42 : - 5.36%
ShCm: 3103.7 : 3307.2 : +6.56% : 3391.8 : 3428.9 : 3487.8 : 3500.0 : 3462.1 : 3155.0 : - 8.88%
PhpSi: 6840.6 : 8558.4 : +25.1% : 8770.0 : 8814.6 : 8915.9 : 9041.2 : 8810.8 : 8503.7 : - 3.49%
IWM- : 134.85 : 152.43 : +13.0% : 154.75 : 158.16 : 158.60 : 159.60 : 153.83 : 146.77 : - 4.59%
XLF-  : $23.25 : $27.19 : +16.9% : $28.41 : $29.23 : $29.54 : $30.17 : $29.36 : $27.68 : - 5.73%
F/iwm 0.1724 : 0.1784 : ====== : 0.1836 : 0.1848 : 0.1862 : 0.1909 : 0.1909 : 0.1886 :
BTC-- : $948.5 : 13,100 : x13.8X : 15,840  : 13,622 :  11,500 : 11,500 : $8,800 : $8,840 :
==== : Fye'16 : Fye'17 : +-%chg :  01/05 :  01/12 :   01/19 :   01/26 :  02/02 :  02/09 :

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Last week, Shanghai stocks fell (8.88%) - was more than SPX (-5.07%).

They touched support (987 d.AM) near 3,080 --- update : 3-mos : 10d :

AtoHAI8.gif

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Oil & Oil shares took a Hit - as the charts had anticipated

XLE -vs-DBA ... update

lhHxVa3.gif

WEEKLY Price Changes /

Oil falls (-9.6%). More than stocks (-5.1%) as people talk "Stock Crash".

But China stocks fall almost 9%.

==== : Fye'16  : Fye'17 : +-%chg :  01/05 :  01/12 :  01/19 :  01/26 :  02/02 :  02/09 :
Gold : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1322.3 : 1334.5 : 1333.1 : 1352.1 : 1337.3 : 1315.7 : - 1.62%
GLD- : 109.61 : 123.65 : +12.8% : 125.33 : 126.96 : 126.42 : 127.35 : 126.39 : 124.77 :
SPY- : 223.53 : 266.86 : +19.4% : 273.42 : 277.92 : 280.41 : 284.68 : 275.45 : 261.50 : - 5.07%
XLE : $75.32 : $72.24 : -4.09%: $74.97 : $77.42 : $76.38: $77.51 : $72.46 : $66.67 : - 8.00%
WTIc: $53.72 : $60.42 : +12.4% : $61.44 : $64.30 : $63.31 : $66.14 : $65.45 : $59.20 : - 9.55%
DBA : $19.97 : $18.76 : -6.06%: $18.83 : $18.56: $18.63: $18.91 : $18.97 : $18.82 : - 0.79%
====

RATIO : XLE -to-DBA

FDNjPXh.png

This drop in Oil, instead of a jump in Grains - suggests that Inflationary Pressures may ease - & maybe Bonds can rally after their recent drop

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Gotta Bucket of water? The witch must go!

Hillary-Clinton-AP_725118033484-940x545.

Hillary Clinton, a favorite GOP foil, plans discreet 2018 strategy

“The resistance is looking for the next savior of the Democratic Party and I don’t know how much demand [for Clinton appearances] there will be outside of the districts where she beat Trump,” said Patti Solis Doyle, who managed Clinton’s 2008 presidential campaign.

A Clinton 2020 campaign has been ruled out, although Trump continues to tweet excitedly about the prospect and mentioned her during a January news conference with the prime minister of Norway.

LieStream = WashCompost > https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/hillary-clinton-a-favorite-gop-foil-plans-discreet-2018-strategy/2018/02/11/ec02d02e-0cd0-11e8-95a5-c396801049ef_story.html?utm_term=.468dc773d0aa

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Dow soars 410 points after its worst week in 2 years...

Investors brace for more swings...

Apps causing financial site glitches...

The Dow Jones industrial average closed 410.37 points higher at 24,601.27 and rose as much as 574.26. DowDuPont and Apple were the best-performing stocks in the Dow, advancing 3.4 percent and 4 percent, respectively.

The S&P 500 gained 1.4 percent to finish at 2,656, with materials and information technology as the best-performing sectors. The Nasdaq composite advanced 1.6 percent to close at 6,981.96.

Shares of Amazon, Bank of America and Apple — which fell sharply last week — all rose by at least 2.5 percent.

JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade, said the market is trying to find its balance point after last week's wild swings. "There's more volatility ahead. These things take a few weeks to get worked out," he said.

"The market is trying to bounce here, but we have yields climbing and that could dampen enthusiasm," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at First Standard Financial.

The CPI numbers are scheduled for release Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. ET.

Jonathan Golub, chief U.S. equity strategist at Credit Suisse, told CNBC's "Squawk on the Street" the CPI number was important. "The expectations are that inflation is actually going to be coming down a tiny bit, both on the core and the headline," he said. "Unless we get a problematic surprise, I think Wednesday can actually be the event that calms the markets down."

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Added to Weekly Recap on DrBubb's Diary:

PH:PSei

ozIGdDc.gif

===
Gold : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1322.3 : 1334.5 : 1333.1 : 1352.1 : 1337.3 : 1315.7 : - 1.62%
Au/hd: r1.401 : r1.58E : ====== : r1.584 : r-1.610 : r-1.575 : r-1.589 : r-1.589 : r-1.603 :
Hold : 822.17 : 830.00 : +01.0% : 834.86 : 828.96 : 846.67 : 851.06 : 841.35 : 820.71 :
GDX- : $20.92 : $23.24 : +11.1% : $23.67: $24.01 : $23.65 : $24.35 : $22.91 : $21.68 :
WPM: $19.32 : $22.27 : +15.3% : $21.95 : $21.90 : $22.20 : $22.16 : $21.13 : $19.02 :
Gdxj : $31.55 : $34.13 : +8.18% : $34.48 : $34.94 : $34.40 : $34.79 : $32.29 : $30.63 :
PHM: $18.38 : $33.34 : +81.4% : $34.54 : $34.48 : $34.60 : $34.52 : $30.70 : $28.71 :
EEM- : $35.01 : $47.30 : +35.1% : $49.13 : $49.51 : $50.44 : $51.29 : $49.05 : $46.42 : - 5.36%
ShCm: 3103.7 : 3307.2 : +6.56% : 3391.8 : 3428.9 : 3487.8 : 3500.0 : 3462.1 : 3155.0 : - 8.88%
PhpSi: 6840.6 : 8558.4 : +25.1% : 8770.0 : 8814.6 : 8915.9 : 9041.2 : 8810.8 : 8503.7 : - 3.49%
IWM- : 134.85 : 152.43 : +13.0% : 154.75 : 158.16 : 158.60 : 159.60 : 153.83 : 146.77 : - 4.59%
XLF-  : $23.25 : $27.19 : +16.9% : $28.41 : $29.23 : $29.54 : $30.17 : $29.36 : $27.68 : - 5.73%
F/iwm 0.1724 : 0.1784 : ====== : 0.1836 : 0.1848 : 0.1862 : 0.1909 : 0.1909 : 0.1886 :
BTC-- : $948.5 : 13,100 : x13.8X : 15,840  : 13,622 :  11,500 : 11,500 : $8,800 : $8,840 :
==== : Fye'16 : Fye'17 : +-%chg :  01/05 :  01/12 :   01/19 :   01/26 :  02/02 :  02/09 :

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Something VERY Serious is Happening with Banks - they've almost stopped lending TO EACH OTHER

A little over three weeks ago, I became aware of a sudden and dramatic change in the US Banking System that made my stomach sick. I "sat" on this story for almost three weeks hoping what I found was some type of anomaly or data error. It's not.

Bankers have almost completely stopped lending . . . . TO EACH OTHER.

The plunge in "InterBank Lending" was so sudden and so substantial that it looks as though it is actually a PLAN, not happenstance or situationally appropriate.

It LOOKS like the Bankers are intentionally choking the US Economy and they're doing so at levels far FAR worse than what took place during the "Fiscal Crisis" of 2007-08.

For more than 45 years, the Federal Reserve has tracked virtually E V E R Y aspect of banking in the United States. They literally look at EVERY financial metric and provide incredible amounts of public reporting to anyone willing to spend time on the Federal Reserve Electronic Data (FRED) web site.

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Bitcoin prices are still in an uptrend on 10d chart ... update

am8fcNa.png

But in downtrend on longer term ... 2-mos :

ytAv9Hs.png

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BONDS might surprise almost everyone, and rally

TMF / leveraged Bull etf for TLT/ LT Treasuries ... update :

OpAYLCC.gif

TLT

GSqK452.gif

If TLT & TMF rally, then Precious metals may jump too

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"It's not uncommon to see gold down in a sharp correction," said Eugen Weinberg, head of commodity research at Commerzbank. "In the first wave of a market correction, we would expect to see indiscriminate selling as investors raise cash. They are going to sell their profitable, liquid trades and that is gold."

Looking ahead, while gold prices could continue to push lower in the near term, Weinberg said that it wouldn't take much for gold to regain its safe-haven luster. He added that he expects long-term value investors to take advantage of lower prices in the near term.

"The longer the crisis in equities lasts, the more demand there will be for safe-haven assets," he said. "There should be reliable safe-haven demand at $1,300 an ounce."

Along with interest rates, commodity analysts say that gold investors also need to keep an eye on the U.S. Dollar Index, which has bounced 1.5% since hitting a three-year low two weeks ago.

"While the U.S. dollar shows signs of bottoming out against major currencies, gold will have a tough time breaking out," said Lawler.

While a stronger U.S. dollar will weigh on gold, some analysts think that the greenback is oversold.

gold-vs-USD-20180209.PNG

Peter Schiff's latest comments on it in Raising Rates Reflect Bigger Debt Not Faster Growth are well worth reading. Basically these people expect to "have their cake and eat it" and have gotten away with this up to now—rising bond market, rising stock market, rates low and stable, thanks to allowing uncontrolled expansion of debt and derivatives, but basically they are out of time, which is what the drop in bond markets and consequent plunge in the stock market is signaling.

usd4year090218.jpg

The dollar's modest post breakdown rally to the underside of its Broadening Top is a typical post breakdown occurrence, and only increases downside risk by unwinding the earlier oversold condition. With its moving averages in severely bearish alignment it looks set to drop away very soon, and the decline could become precipitous. The reason for this is that a continuation of the current course, where the Fed engages in QT (Quantitative Tightening) and also raises interest rates will quickly implode the debt-wracked economy, so they are likely to abandon the proposed rates rises, unless their intention is actually to crash the markets in order that the Deep State can pin the blame on Trump. Once they abandon the rate rises, the dollar is toast.

To conclude, this looks like an excellent point to short the dollar, which is expected to drop and probably accelerate away to the downside. This should provide a boost for the precious metals sector, which should not be troubled by a falling stock market over the short to medium-term, and even when the stock market does fall again, it should have less or no impact on the precious metals sector, which will increasingly be seen as a safe haven.

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(from the CryptoCats thread):

A NICE POP-UP in the BTC price over the last few hours, and the test of 10,000 seems to be underway. 

This is important resistance, and it may take some stronger volume to get through it (High Green lines are what I want to see in this chart)
BTC : 1yr : 2mo : 10d-B :

sqKcKbm.png

At this stage, I will give it at least a 50% chance of making it through $10,000.   If the volume grows (^green lines) as the test occurs, the odds rise

LqW7afr.png

If the volume flags as it tests resistance, then the odds shrink --- all IMHO, of course.

10d-B :

8EbH0zq.png

Before BTC can get to $10,000, the price will have to push thru likely near term resistance at/near $9700/

Bitcoin breaks back above $9000 as volume falls

MarketWatch-9 hours ago
Prices of digital currencies rallied early Wednesday with the No.1 cryptocurrency, bitcoin, trading through $9,000 a coin to an intraday high of $9,367.95—an 11 day high. After falling early February, bitcoin BTCUSD, +8.43% prices have steadily clawed back losses despite some negative press around its ...

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09: 261.50 +3.87 259.M: 29.06 : 21.68 +0.01 : 124.77 -0.21 13.8M: 1315.7 $59.20 : $90.33 +0.00 : 117.94 -0.75/
12: 265.34 +3.84 140.M: 25.61 : 21.97 +0.29 : 125.37 +0.60 6.93M: 1000,0 $00.00 : $90.14 -0.18 : 118.46 +0.52/ 00, 058 : 000, 634
13: 266.00 +0.66 000.M: 24.97 : 22.00 -0.03 : 126.08 +0.71 0.00M: 1330.4 $59.19 : $89.01 -1.13 : 118.99 +0.53/
14: 269.59 +3.59 113.M: 19.26 : 23.01 +1.01 : 128.23 +2.15 16.2M: 1358.6 $60.60 : $88.95 -0.06 : 117.67 -1.32/ 00, 000 :

 

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