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drbubb

DrBubb's Diary - Feb. 2018 Trading - v.109

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TOP of Page Header ... : Channel-GE : MP : PP : Charts : Acore : Fringe :

t24_au_en_usoz_6.gif : idx24_russell_en_2.gif : idx24_hui_en_2.gif :

3d : ag : au : 10d-Gvs.UK : >News : DrRp : AJo : Fox : WRH : Arc : RenA : Rvd : FxN :

chart.png?m=bitstampUSD&v=1&t=S&noheader

/ all data: 8yr: 32mo:12mo : 5mo 2mo :  BTC 10 5d / SLV-lv

DC9Gmmo.png

========

Bitcoin Hedge (or not) position through time
========

01/31: 0.5975 x$9897 -(000)=5913:0029:$9926Mar(1100):5931/(0500:08.4%):+0321:10218 +600
02/09: 0.6100 x$8440 -(000)=5148:0010:$8450Mar(0950):5155/(0000:00.0%):+0040:$8480 +950, 0.012
02/12: 0.6096 x$8524 -(000)=5196:0010:$8524Mar(0950):5196/(0000:00.0%):+0018:$8542 +950, 0.0107
02/13: 0.6065 x$8846 -(000)=5365:0114:$8960Mar(0950):5434/(0000:00.0%):+0154:$9000 +950, 0.0067
02/15: 0.6100 x$9318 -(000)=5684:0090:$9408Mar(0950):5739/(0000:00.0%):+0280:$9591 +950, 0.00945
02/16: 0.5976 x10093-(000)=6032:0025:10118Mar(1000):6047/(0100:01.7%):+0182:10275 +900,-0.00213
02/17: 0.6053 x10720-(000)=6470:-035:10685Mar(1400):6468/(1350:20.9%):+0115:10835 +050,-0.00
02/18: 0.6087 x10500-(000)=6391:-050:10450Mar(1400):6361/(1350:21.2%):+0125:10625 +050,--0.00
02/19: 0.6020 x10950-(-51)=6592:-000:10950Mar(1400):6592/(1350:20.5%):+0150:11100 +100,-0.00
02/20: 0.5952 x11570-100)=6886:-030:11628Mar(1450):6920/(1450:21.0%):+0125:11800 +100,-0.00
02/25: 0.6207 x$9812-(200)=6090:-040:$9732Mar(1450):6041/(1550:25.7%):+0001:$9813 +100,--0.00
02/26: 0.6254 x$9580-(200)=5991:-070:$9510Mar(1000):5948/(1100:18.5%):+0001:$9605 +025, -0.00: 10.9
02/27: 0.6177 x10738-( -50)=6633:+006:10742Mar(-800):6635/( -700:10.6%):+0150:10853 +115, -0.00: 11.4
02/28: 0.6100 x10950-( -50)=6680: -100:10950Mar(-800):6680/( -750:11.2%):+0100:11048 +025,-.007: 11.6
03/01: 0.6150 x10345-(-50)=6362:-025:10320Mar(-700):6347/(-600: 9.45%):+0150:10400 +055, -.006: 11.3
03/02: 0.6102 x11117-(-50)=6784:+023:11140Mar(-850):6798/(-750:11.0%):+0150:11235 +118,-.006: 11.6
03/03: 0.6086 x11235-(-50)=6838:+015:11250Mar(-850):6847/(-800:11.7%):+0150:11440 +205,-.007: 11.8
03/03: 0.6041 x11459-(-50)=6922:+102:11561Mar(-850):6984/(-800:11.5%):+0100:11695 +245,-.010: 11.9
03/03: 0.6041 x11459-(-50)=6922:+102:11561Mar(-850):6984/(-800:11.5%):+0100:11695 +245,-.010: 11.9
03/04: 0.6065 x11147-(100)=6761:+007:11154Mar(-850):6765/(-950:14.0%):+0000:11321 +174,-.010: 11.8
03/05: 0.6035 x11510-(200)=6946:+080:11590Mar -1150:6995/-1500:21.4%: --200:11777 +267, -.010: 12.0
03/06: 0.6087 x11230-(200)=6836:+080:11275Mar -1600:6863/-2350:34.2%: --550:11462 +267, -.011: 11.9
03/07: 0.6214 x10450-(050)=6494:+030:10480Mar -1500:6512/-2050:34.2%: --500:10670 +220, -.013: 11.7
03/08: 0.6344 x$9980-(050)=6331: -030:$9950Mar -1500:6312/-2050:32.5%: --500:10065 +085, -.012: 11.2
======
-Bonus: 0.225 x 12750= $3337; x$9950= $2239: 4073: H:4588 / 0515/0.428=1203: 11,153

 

Doc RAM is back!

He's here with Richie Allen... covering some old ground, but in a new way

Dr Richard Alan Miller "Reality Is Something That Can't Be Known, It Can Only Be Experienced."

You will hear a bit about his visit to Antarctica (where he saw a Nazi base) and his encounter with Kril, a 9-foot tall "grey" alien

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Craig Hemke - Gold & Silver Rebound on Sinking Dollar

 

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BAIZUO - The Chinese "get it" !

What Do Chinese Think of Leftist? Tucker Carlson Explains

"Baizuo" Is The New Derogatory Term Millions Of Chinese Are Using ...

May 21, 2017 - In China for instance, they have a word for these people. They are called “baizuo” or the “white left” on social media. Which is interesting, because even though China has its fair share of socialists and communists, they don't have a direct equivalent to our liberal snowflakes. Most of the Chinese are still ...

/ 2 /

"WHITE LEFT" : China's New Internet INSULT - Bugmen BTFO

 

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Glenn Neely/ Neowave expects a drop to a Wave 4 Low

(soon? over 2-4 years maybe)

T08XUJ6.png

My own chart - SPX / S&P500 : all-Data : 10yr : 5yr :

W3wicTn.gif

10-yr

SkQyzcu.gif

==

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THOSE LONG TERM CHARTS (above) look Toppy!

Now this:

Dow slides as Wall St adds to losses...

Inflation specter spooks bonds...

Correction Watch Is On...

Dow falls more than 100 points as stocks resume Friday's ugly sell-off

  • The Dow dropped 146 points after briefly falling more than 300 points.
  • The major U.S. stock indexes capped off their worst weekly performance in two years on Friday following a steep sell-off.

"We're not used to getting wash-outs like this anymore," said Quincy Krosby, chief market strategist at Prudential Financial. "The buy-the-dip mentality that has taken over hasn't allowed for that."

"This sell-off, in the bigger scheme of things, is not that big. But it is very important in psychological terms," Krosby said.

This stocks sell-off "reflects 'growing pains' as the markets adapt to above-trend growth and a normalization of inflation that have led to a back-up in rates," Jason Draho, head of tactical asset allocation for the Americas at UBS, said in a note Friday.

"We continue to recommend an overweight to equities globally versus US government bonds in our tactical asset allocation," he said. "However, markets are likely to remain choppy as they adapt to this new growth and interest rate environment."

The CBOE Volatility index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, hit its highest level since November 2016 before trading at 18.39.

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After yesterday's -4% Crash, NFLX, AMZN & GOOG are still Up for the year; Others are not ... 2018 update

irsiCQC.gif
DOW RECOVERS SOME GROUND AFTER HISTORIC 1600-POINT DROP...
Computer-driven selling amplifies rout...
Year's gains wiped out...

FAANG stocks ... update-since YrE-2015 : '16 : '17 : 10d/ FB : AMZN : AAPL : NFLX : GOOG : SPX

Tth46oK.gif

FAANG Stock statistics :
Symbol Company : YrE.' 15 :  YrE. '16 :  +1yr.chg : YrE. '17 : +2yr.chg : $-Last- : +change : P/ER : earn.ps
FB      / Facebook  : $104.66 : $115.05 : +  9.93% : $176.46 : +68.60% : $181.26 : + 2.72% : 35.13 : $5.16 :
AMZN / Amazon  : $675.89 : $749.87 : +10.95% : 1169.47 : +73.03% : 1390.00 : +18.86% : 352.8 : $3.94 :
AAPL / Apple-----  : $105.26 : $115.82 : +10.03% : $169.23 : +60.77% : $156.49 :    - 7.53% : 17.01 : $9.20 :
NFLX / Netflix---   : $114.38 : $123.80 : +   8.24% : $191.96 : +67.83% : $254.26 : +32.45% : 203.4 : $1.25 :
GOOG / Alphabet : $758.88 : $771.82 : +   1.71% : 1046.40 : +37.89% : 1055.80 :  + 0.89% : 35.29 : 29.92 :
=====
SPX- / S&P 500   : 2043.94 : 2238.83 : + 9.54% : 2673.61 : +30.81%: 2648.94 :  - 0.93% : 21.54 : $123.F*
IWM- / Rus'l2000 : $112.62 : $134.85 : +19.74% : $152.46 : +35.38% : $147.92 :  - 2.98% : 132.1 : $1.12 F*
DJIA/ DowJones : 17,425.  : 19,763.  : +13.42% : 24,719. : +41.86%: 24,346. :  - 1.51% : 24.32 : 1001.F*
VIX-- / Volatility--  :  18.21%  : 14.04%  : - 22.90% :  11.04% : - 39.38% :  37.32% :
TLT-- / T-Bonds--- : $120.58 : $119.13 :  -  1.20% : $126.86 :  + 5.21% : $120.71 :  -  4.85% :
GLD-- / Gold etf-- : $101.46 : $109.61 : +  8.03% : $123.65 : +21.87% : $126.71 :  + 2.47% :
GDX- / GoldStocks: $13.72 : $  20.92 : +52.48% : $  23.24 : +69.39% : $  22.71 :   -  2.29% :
DXY-- / US Dollar : $  98.69 : $102.21 : +  3.57% : $  92.12 :  -  6.66% : $  89.63 :   -  2.70% :
==============

SPY & Ops:
12/31 : $266.86 ==== : =====/ VIX : 11.04%/
12pm  : $278.31 -3.27: -1.17%/ VIX : 15.10%/ Jan2019 $285p : $17.77-18.03: $17.90 ..update +Call: $12.60 = Strad.: $30.50 (11.0%)
02/02 : $275.45 -6.13: -2.18%/ VIX : 17.31%/ Jan2019 $285p : $19.43-19.85: $19.64 ..update +Call: $11.25 = Strad.: $30.89 (11.2%) Jun 285 280
02/05 : $263.93 -11.5: -4.18%/ VIX : 37.32%/ Jan2019 $285p : $29.00-34.00: $31.50 ..update +Call: $08.00 = Strad.: $39.50 (15.7%)

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8 hours ago, hector said:

Must be very near the top now

Only thing that can keep pumping prices is QE4...

Yesterday's Big -4% drop came with heavy volume ... update

D9MmLC7.gif

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Is Trump following the Putin pattern to beat the Globalists?

ANDREY AFANASYEV: A RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE on SWAMP CREATURES! - INFOWARS

Time to arrest Soros and Hillary, and put them on trial - sounds like!

The attempted Soros / Clinton takeover was like the chaos generated by Bolsheviks (globalist j--'s)

Kozhevnikova-putin_2086410b.jpg

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Tony C's Weekend Review / from before Monday's 4% drop

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend underway ?

The current pullback is acting more like a correction than a pullback in this bull market. Even though indices were extremely overbought, which they have been for weeks and weeks, and there were some daily negative divergences on the DOW/NAZ/NDX. There was little warning, if any, of what would happen this week.

spxdaily.png?w=640&h=485

What we did notice, as the decline was unfolding, is that on Wednesday the market confirmed 5 waves up from the Minute iv SPX 2557 low. We thought nothing of it since the five waves were clearly lopsided: 2590-2578-2658-2606-2873; wave 1 (33 pts.), wave 3 (80 pts.) and wave 5 (266 pts.). Also wave 3 was only 2 weeks, while wave 5 wave 2 months. Naturally we thought that 5th wave was actually a third wave of a larger structure. So much for that thinking. Medium term support is now at the 2731 and 2656 pivots, with resistance at the 2780 and 2798 pivots.

> https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2018/02/03/weekend-update-639/#comments

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Philly has some major challenges - some of the Social Stats do not look good

Stefan Molyneux : What Pisses Me Off About The Philadelphia Superbowl Riots

Basically, Single motherhood is rampant in Philly, and that is expensive for the State, taxpayers & society

What happened to stoic and strong males, holding the home together, & paying tax?

+ Young boys need positive Male role models, but will not find them in single mother households
+ In schools, teachers are almost exclusively female; only 2-5% of teachers are black males
+ Only 40% of blacks reach proficiency levels on standardized tests
+ Boys growing up in single mother households do less-well in school; school environment is "feminized"
+ Absence of fathers = reduced testoserone in boys, higher cortesol levels (related to stress)
+ Boys from fatherless homes have less emotional control
"These are hysterical men.  Why?  Because they have been raised almost exclusively by women."

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Tony's C's TUESDAY comment

Yesterday market volatility went into overdrive, as the DOW traded in a 1600 point range. Today the range was a bit less than 1200 points. Both days were more than the entire range of the previous week. This market is sometimes moving about 3% in one hour. This is insane activity, especially with hardly any fundamental news to drive it. Nevertheless, it only took one day after the weekend update for the SPX/DOW to confirm an Int. iv downtrend. Normally the market is close to a bottom when that occurs. While 4th waves have been fairly mild since 2016. This one has been quite violent. This is normally sign that the next run to new highs will end the bull market. In example: 1987, 2007 and 2014. For those trading this market, you are a better trader than most. Good luck!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

>https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2018/02/06/tuesday-update-626/#comments

COMMENTS

blackjak100 says:

I’m with TC, 3 waves down from 2783 where c=4.236A. There was more volume yesterday on the big up day than there was on the big down day. In other words, anyone looking for a break of 2593 near term will most likely be disappointed. Today’s close near .382 restracement of 2593-2728 with positive breadth on a down day.

...today’s updated chart…

qjiYLVW.png

nzfundmanager says:

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mIYHwfv.png

If SLV can punch up to $17 - and Silver up to $18, it will get all those important Longer  Term MA's under the price action. That would be Bullish, and maybe enormously bullish for the medium term

SLV -- update

xx

Reader's comment on Silver

quickrick38 says:

First, as a reminder, there have been three 1-2’s in silver (since the low of 13.62 on 12-13-2015). We are now just about to finish the wave 2 on this third 1-2. And, it is almost at the 0.764 retrace which is where the first two retraced (one slightly above, the other slightly below). Consequently, silver is almost done the recent drop. We have the one final leg wave 5 of the final ‘C’ wave down to go. Subsequently, in my opinion we could well start a series of wave 3’s up.

Whether this will translate to gold I couldn’t say but as everyone knows they usually track together.

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Is the Bitcoin LOW in Place?

That's the question that kept coming up at the Meet-Up I went to in BGC last night

My answer: It might be.

The Elliottwave / E-wave counts (just above) show two main possibilities

+ A-case: Low not yet in place, after a rally to $10,000 (or so), the Low at $6,000 will retested - or even lower

+ B-case: Low in place, Bitcoin prices should work their way up to $19,000-20,000, and maybe higher

I am not yet ready to favor B, but i might move to that as my preferred case, if today's action looks right.

I especially want to see a price jump above the red downtrend line in the charts below, and more Volume to the Upside

( following are the main charts I will be watching today )

The Battle of the MA's - still underway

2 Month Chart / 30 min : 48x384 update (1dx8d) :

HmcVHaM.png

5d - 5 min / 84x500 (xx) :

lMz7o5E.png

==> see CryptoCATS thread: http://tinyurls.com/cryptoCats >

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Dow plunges 900 points as bond fears haunt stocks

Here we go again. Worries about the bond market are driving another wave of selling on Wall Street.

And the stock market is now in a correction -- 10% off its record high just two weeks ago.

Fears about the bond market, inflation and interest rates seized investors again Thursday and drove the Dow, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq all into the red for the year.

The Dow finished with a decline of 1,033 points, the second-worst point drop in history, eclipsed only by Monday's 1,175-point nosedive.

The Dow closed below 24,000 for the first time since late November. The Nasdaq ended at a two-month low and just shy of a correction.

Trading has been choppy for days, and the market has swung in wide ranges -- up and down nearly 2,300 points over the past week. Consider this: The S&P 500 has risen or fallen 1% five times in the past two weeks. That only happened eight times all of last year.

And the VIX, a measure of market volatility, is near the highest level since August 2015.

"A big down day like Monday doesn't just go away. We're going to continue to see volatile days," said JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade. "It can take two to three weeks to work through the system."

Read more: www.whatreallyhappened.com http://www.whatreallyhappened.com/#ixzz56ZIcdtIJ

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A SWITCH to Gold may have begun

2L2JrZm.png

The falling ratio may have turned upwards, suggesting a Shift in investor preferences may be underway

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House prices tumble again as buyers face a squeeze

Russell Lynch, Evening Standard Wed, 7 Feb

> https://uk.yahoo.com/news/house-prices-tumble-again-buyers-102800618.html

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FASCINATING

Brooks Agnew's "FACTion" about present History / Current Events

BROOKS AGNEW : THE RISE OF THE CLINTON CRIME SYNDICATE

=

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Cyrpto Rich List

SynEbIa.jpg

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Gold (GLD) has had a nice run relative to Bonds (TLT)

GLD-vsTLT ... update : 10-yr :

hds4HtW.gif

10-yr :

o1a2b7f.gif

Ratio : GLD-toTLT ...

xyfAEfe.png

Gold needs to punch thru resistance, or get some help from Bond prices, if it is to go higher

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"We talked for months that the Cycle bottom (in Gold) was coming...

Charles Nenner – Buy Gold Market Crash Coming

"Everytime unemployment is low, it is the end of the Bull market"

Neneer sees a MAJOR LOW IN GOLD within six months.

He expects stocks to be in Bear market until 2020.

And (surprisingly?) see a rally in Bonds.  This would fit with the following chart

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"DEEP STATE HAS LOST"

"The house of cards is coming down... it is like the bottom card has been pulled, & we are watching the cards come down"

Military Tribunals - The Time Has Come

"The Dems cannot admit that it is the Illegal vote that props up the Dems... they cannot pass laws to regulate those Illegals that support them."

/ 2 /

Trump is winning (it seems). But "the Secret Service is on high alert".

NEW Q-DROP - FEB 9th- yikes, it's YUGE!

Big news was promised "Next Week" = this week.

"You can't sleep. We can help." (better confess?)

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TEST of Support needed?

BTS ... 10d : B : 5d : 2d

WKgRoaE.png

Looks like BTC prices may need to test likely support at about $7800-7900

More Lines:

VJcb4a5.png

The second chart shows channel support at a higher level than $7800-7900

Bitcoin Hedge (or not) position through time
========
01/31: 0.5975 x$9897 -(000)=5913:0029:$9926Mar(1100):5931/(0500:08.4%):+0321:10218 +600
02/09: 0.6100 x$8440 -(000)=5148:0010:$8450Mar(0950):5155/(0000:00.0%):+0040:$8480 +950, 0.012
02/12: 0.6096 x$8524 -(000)=5196:0010:$8524Mar(0950):5196/(0000:00.0%):+0018:$8542 +950, 0.0107
======
-Bonus,0.225 x$8524= $1918/ Core: 3278: H:4588/ 1310/0.6096=2129: 10,673= new high on core

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JBP's book is running the table - #1 on Amazon.

He even beats the book for Cat lovers & Lovers, going into Valentine's Day

Why?

The Cathy Newman interview helped, but it is more than that, as you will see in this interview:

Jordan Peterson Analyzes His Cathy Newman Interview With Steven Crowder

==

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