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Troubled Tech stock Heaven : FAANG giants struggling?

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FAANG stocks ... since YrE-2015 : '16 : '17 : 10d/ FB : AMZN : AAPL : NFLX : GOOG : SPX

CHARTED together...

SPY-etc ... update


FAANG stocks ... since YrE-2015 : '16 : '17 :


AMZN is 3rd in stock price appreciation, but is winning... the Tech War, by some measures

Jeff Bezos reveals Amazon has 100 million Prime members in letter to shareholders

  • Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos has released his latest annual shareholder letter.
  • Bezos has published a shareholder letter every year since 1997.
  • The shareholder letter is considered a must-read by many business professionals.

> https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/18/amazon-ceo-jeff-bezos-2018-shareholder-letter.html

> Link to AMZN Letter : https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018724/000119312518121161/d456916dex991.htm

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SPY Calls: Jan$285c ... update : 10d / spy $285call : 6mo : 10d / $285put / charts : feb :


Date-: --SPY--- : chg. : +-pct./ - VIX - :

12/31: $266.86 ==== : ======/ 11.04%/ Jan2019: b-o : $285P / $285-C: Straddle (%SPY) :%ofVIX
02/02: $275.45 - 6.13:  - 2.18%/ 17.31%/ $19.43-19.85: $19.64 / $11.25: $30.89 (11.21%) : 64.8%
02/05: $263.93 - 11.5:  - 4.18%/ 37.32%/ $29.00-34.00: $31.50 / $08.00: $39.50 (14.97%) : 40.1%
02/15: $273.03 +3.44: +1.28%/ 19.13%/ $20.77-21.07: $20.92 / $10.53: $31.45 (11.52%) : 60.2%
03/07: $272.78 - 0.10:  - 0.04%/ 17.76%/ $18.50-23.50: $21.00 / $09.42: $30.42 (11.15%) : 62.8%
03/29:  $271.65 - 2.78: - 1.01%/ 19.97%/ $00.00-00.00: $26.70 / $06.30: $33.00 (12.15%) : 60.8%
04/18:  $270.39 +0.20: +0.07%/ 15.61%/ $19.84-20.04: $19.94 / $06.60: $26.54 (09.82%) : 62.9%


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After FACEBOOK scrutiny, GOOGLE next?

In the latest discovery, CNN reported that it found more than 300 retail brands, government agencies and technology companies had their ads run on YouTube channels that promoted white nationalists, Nazis, conspiracy theories and North Korean propaganda


"conspiracy theories?"

Reporting the Truth would be a crime on CNN

I think promoting CNN is closer to the real hate crime

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FAANG stocks ... since YrE-2015 : '16 : '17 : 10d/ FB : AMZN : AAPL : NFLX : GOOG : SPX

CHARTED together...

SPY-etc ... update


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Tax Arb pays better even than Crime

  • Apr 26, 2018

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AAPL, SPY-etc ... update


Room for Apple to move past $1T market cap?

Zelphinium's Armando Soto and Global Wealth Management's John Thomas on the future of the Iran nuclear deal and the outlook for Apple.


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FAANG stocks look poised to breakout to new highs

... update


SPY lags behind ... update - At $272.24 still 5% below High for year, $286.63



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Why the net giants are worried about the Web 3.0

The birth of blockchain spawned a movement which is set to disrupt the entire tech industry. Blockchain and crypto enthusiasts are calling it the Web 3.0 and it’s looking to make all traditional business models defunct. This is because, in short, the technology will facilitate the decentralization of the World Wide Web, thereby equalizing control and ownership back from the grasp of profit hungry corporations.

The Web 3.0 ecosystem already consists of over 3000 variegated crypto coins and over 900 decentralized apps or DApps (a single DApp can mean a team of up to 50 members, each dedicated to disrupting a specific industry). And even though the industry is still in its infancy, the market cap has already exceeded 800 billion.

Liberté, égalité, fraternité

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Google Removes “Don’t Be Evil” From Its Conduct As Employees Quit In Droves Over Project Maven

By Aaron Kesel

Google has removed the phrase “Don’t be evil” from its Code of Conduct; this comes as at least 4,000 employees have expressed outrage over the company’s decision to work with the Pentagon’s Project Maven and amid a leaked video called the “Selfish Ledger” exposing internal Google dialogue to create a dystopia run by the big social giant...

In 2015, Google’s parent company Alphabet dropped the motto shortly after taking over as Google’s holding company, Time reported.

Employees of Alphabet and its subsidiaries and controlled affiliates (‘Alphabet’) should do the right thing — follow the law, act honorably, and treat co-workers with courtesy and respect.

The new revision to the Code of Conduct seems to almost mirror and echo Alphabet’s motto expressing that employees “should do the right thing” rather than “don’t be evil.” So it’s basically a dumbed-down version.

Last week dozens of employees resigned because of ethical concerns over the company’s work with the Defense Department that includes helping the military speed up analysis of drone footage by automatically classifying images of objects and people (Project Maven), Engadget reported.

Some of Google’s employees even claimed that the company has begun to lack transparency with its workers.

Some employees who resigned told Gizmodo that executives have become less transparent with their workforce about controversial business decisions, and seem less interested in listening to workers’ objections of those choices.

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Topping action in SPX / SPY ?

SPY ... 6-mos :


BOT again at under $17 on Tuesday the puts I had sold at $24 = Jan.2018 - Spy $285P

Here's an update on Straddle Pricing

12/31: $266.86 ==== : ======/ 11.04%/ Jan2019: b-o : $285P / $285-C: Straddle (%SPY) d>1.18 /Sqrt= aVix : %VIX
02/02: $275.45 - 6.13:  - 2.18%/ 17.31%/ $19.43-19.85: $19.64 / $11.25: $30.89 (11.21%) 351d: /.981= 11.43 : 66.0%
02/05: $263.93 - 11.5:  - 4.18%/ 37.32%/ $29.00-34.00: $31.50 / $08.00: $39.50 (14.97%) 348d: /.976= 15.34 : 41.1%
02/15: $273.03 +3.44: +1.28%/ 19.13%/ $20.77-21.07: $20.92 / $10.53: $31.45 (11.52%) 338d: / .962= 11.98 : 62.6%
03/07: $272.78 - 0.10:  - 0.04%/ 17.76%/ $18.50-23.50: $21.00 / $09.42: $30.42 (11.15%) 318d: / .933= 11.95 : 67.3%
03/29:  $271.65 - 2.78: - 1.01%/ 19.97%/ $00.00-00.00: $26.70 / $06.30: $33.00 (12.15%) 296d: / .901= 13.49 : 67.6%
04/18:  $270.39 +0.20: +0.07%/ 15.61%/ $19.84-20.04: $19.94 / $06.60: $26.54 (09.82%) 276d: / .870= 11.28 : 72.3%
05/23 : $273.36 +0.75: +0.27%/ 12.99%/ $16.82-17.04: $16.94 / $05.58: $22.52 (08.24%) 241d: / .813= 10.14 : 78.0%
05/29 : $269.02 - 3.13: - 1.19%/ 17.02%/ $19.77-20.08: $19.93 / $04.49: $24.42 (09.08%) 235d: / .802= 11.32 : 66.5%
06/12 : $278.92 +0.36: +0.13%/ 12.34%/ $13.79-13.90: $13.85 / $07.72: $21.57 (07.73%) 222d: / .800= 09.66 : 78.3%

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McCarthy: People From Tech Companies ‘Need To Come In’ – ‘The Bias Has to Stop’

While speaking with Hugh Hewitt on MSNBC on Saturday, House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) reacted to Google listing Nazism as an ideology of the California Republican Party by stating that “the bias has to stop.” And “individuals need to come in.”

McCarthy said, “Well, this was disgusting. So, if anybody went and searched it through Google, which is the biggest search engine, 90% of everything on the Internet that’s searched goes through Google, the ideology didn’t say the party of Lincoln or the party of Reagan. It said our ideology was Nazism. They said they pulled that from Wikipedia. The tough part is, I was — talked about this beforehand, and I looked at Wikipedia, and it didn’t say Nazism on there. So, this is a real concern that the bias has to stop. Because if you just went a couple of days before to Instagram, and you searched Donald Trump, Jr., it gave you a warning that this site could be harmful and could actually cause death. So, that was a real concern of what’s going on. And then what happened at Amazon, kicking out the Alliance [Defending] Freedom, that you couldn’t give the charity money through there anymore, even though these people defend religious freedom before the Supreme Court, and that Amazon Smile, those customers can’t pick that charity anymore to give money to.”

Hewitt asked, “What do you do about this? Rather than, I think you’ve said that this has got to be a source of alarm, there’s got to be accountability, okay, if you’re the speaker of the House, what will you do about it?”

McCarthy responded, “I think individuals need to come in. There needs to be transparencies. Because we have to have a clear understanding. We have a 1st Amendment and others. People are controlling — if they’re controlling the feed of what people are seeing, that is fundamentally wrong. We have found, having Facebook come before Congress, that there is a problem there that the users, are they truly knowing what’s happening with their information and others? I think this is an area that Congress needs to look at throughout.”

> http://www.breitbart.com/video/2018/06/02/mccarthy-people-from-tech-companies-need-to-come-in-the-bias-has-to-stop/

Slam them with anti-Trust suits.

Put their executives in jail

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IWM / Russell 2000 ... update .. may be at/near important resistance


SPY ... update ... could be at resistance too


SPY ... close-up: 6mo : 10d  : last:


Here's an update on Straddle Pricing

12/31: $266.86 ==== : ======/ 11.04%/ Jan2019: b-o : $285P / $285-C: Straddle/ Ja2020 (%SPY) d>1.18 /Sqrt= aVix : %VIX
02/02: $275.45 - 6.13:  - 2.18%/ 17.31%/ $19.43-19.85: $19.64 / $11.25: $30.89 / $48.00 (11.21%) 351d: /.981= 11.43 : 66.0% :
05/29 : $269.02 - 3.13: - 1.19%/ 17.02%/ $19.77-20.08: $19.93 / $04.49: $24.42 / $42.30 (09.08%) 235d: / .802= 11.32 : 66.5% :
06/12 : $278.92 +0.36: +0.13%/ 12.34%/ $13.79-13.90: $13.85 / $07.72: $21.57 / $41.00 (07.73%) 222d: / .800= 09.66 : 78.3% :
06/19 : $275.50 - 1.06: - 0.38%/ 13.35%/ $14.95-15.13: $15.04 / $06.77: $21.81 / $41.70 (07.92%) 215d: / .767= 10.33 : 77.3% :
06/21 : $274.24 - 1.74: - 0.63%/ 14.64%/ $15.67-15.92: $15.70 / $06.13: $21.83 / $41.65 (07.96%) 212d: / .762= 10.45 : 71.4% :
06/25 : $271.00 - 3.74 -1.36%/ 17.44%/ $17.79-$18.19: $17.99 / $05.38: $23.37 / $43.01 (08.62%) 208d: / .755= 11.42 : 65.5% :



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Tech stock still running ahead of SPY

SPY vs GOOG, AAPL, FB ... update :


The Tech Bubble WILL BURST: That’s Not Just Any Analyst But Morgan Stanley Sounding The Alarm


Josh Sigurdson talks with author and economic analyst John Sneisen about recent warnings regarding a massive tech bubble burst.
Despite Goldman Sachs who are infamously wrong most of the time saying that there is no tech bubble, it doesn’t take much more than common sense to recognize the clear and present dangers arising in the tech sector.

Bank of America’s Michael Hartnett exclaimed back in March that Netflix, Google, Facebook, Ebay, Twitter and Amazon were in a bubble considering their growth of 617% since the financial crisis. Hartnett continued just recently that there will be a quick, deep tech selloff.
Well now, Morgan Stanley’s Chief US Equity Strategist Michael Wilson warns that the tech sector will see a moment of truth “at any moment, without warning.”
While people can’t afford simple things anymore and we see major retail giants fall at the same time as Amazon takes over and people leave Facebook and other social media in droves due to a large array of problems, this is a storm waiting to be let loose.
The outlook is bearish because these are highly centralized markets with incredibly risky levels of faith. Look at the speculation! We’ve seen this before. We may have learned a little bit since the 2001 dotcom bubble, but many in the markets today were just children at the time and they’re blindly investing in investor confidence rather than fundamental value. These tech giants are starting to break loose despite an incredible year of profits.
Is Twitter truly that valuable? Will Facebook keep the customers it’s shunning? Will YouTube allow creators to be free on the platform?

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Facebook could be a good short - at over $200 ... 10d



FB -to-SPX


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SPY-Jan'2019 $285puts ... update


I have been trading around a straddle position that I bought back in Jan - booking a profit each time I close a trade

12/31: $266.86 ==== : ===== / 11.04% / Jan2019: b-o: $285P / $285C: Straddle/  J2020 (%SPY) d>1.18 /Sqrt= aVix : %VIX
02/02: $275.45 - 6.13  - 2.18%/ 17.31%/ $19.43-19.85: $19.64 / $11.25: $30.89 / $48.00 (11.21%) 351d: /.981= 11.43 : 66.0% :
06/21 : $274.24 - 1.74 - 0.63%/ 14.64%/ $15.67-15.92: $15.70 / $06.13: $21.83 / $41.65 (07.96%) 212d: / .762= 10.45 : 71.4% :
06/25 : $271.00 - 3.74 - 1.36%/ 17.44%/ $17.79-18.19: $17.99 / $05.38: $23.37 / $43.01 (08.62%) 208d: / .755= 11.42 : 65.5% :

Next planned move will  be to sell Jan. Puts.

I recently sold $285C at $8. They closed yesterday at $5.38


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Netflix soared more than other FAANG firms ... update


Only in “Bizarro World” Can Netflix Rapidly Burn Cash While Stock Still Soars


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#Uck Zuck!

U.S. stock futures mostly fall, hit by Facebook’s premarket dive


Facebook plunges more than 17 percent on revenue miss and projected slowdown

  • Earnings per share: $1.74 vs. $1.72 per a Thomson Reuters consensus estimate
  • Revenue: $13.23 billion vs. $13.36 billion per a Thomson Reuters consensus estimate
  • Global daily active users (DAUs): 1.47 billion vs. 1.49 billion, according to a StreetAccount and FactSet estimate

His time has come. Oust him!

FB ... update

'You're allowed to say something untrue if you're authentic person'...

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SPY (etf for S&P500) vs GAF stocks ... update


Tech Rally Getting Thinner

Recent new highs in the tech sector have occurred on decreasing participation.

For the most part, the rally off of the early 2018 correction lows has occurred on strong breadth, or widespread participation from individual stocks. We are starting to see some potential signs of a change in that trend this week, however. As we mentioned yesterday, the small-cap market failed to keep pace with the new high in the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on Tuesday. We saw another manifestation of the possible “thinning” of the tech rally as well on Tuesday (7/24). While the NDX closed at an all-time high, the accompanying breadth was relatively very weak for a new high.

/ 2 /

Twitter Shares Crash 17% After Users Drop, Company Warns More Declines Expected

It's deja vu all over again as Jack Dorsey pulled a Zuckerberg and reported a miss - and a drop - in user growth, while warning of even greater declines in the coming quarter.

Looking at the financial results, they were not that bad, with the company reporting Q2 adjusted EPS 17c, just beating the estimate of 16c, with Q2 adjusted Ebitda of $265 million also beating estimates of $261.5 million, on Q2 revenue of $711 million, higher than consensus $697 million, of which ad revenue was $601 million, up 23% y/y, however a slowdown in US ad growth is starting to become obvious, with US ad revenues rising only 9%.

/ 3 /

Passive investors! 142 different #ETFs have #Facebook $FB within their top 15 holdings.... FANG stocks are becoming increasing risky to own for the long-term



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If there really is a "TRUMP INSURGENCY" (MAGA?)

then taking down or co-opting the Silicon Valley giants (& their leftwing globalism) is likely to be part of it


> https://medium.com/deep-code/situational-assessment-2017-trump-edition-d189d24fc046

The Trump Insurgency : Situational Assessment 2017

I want to focus specifically on the victory of the “Trump Insurgency” and drill down into detail on how this state change will play out.

the election of 2016 was not an example of “ordinary politics”.... the only real pattern I can find is the 1776 “election” (AKA the American Revolution). In other words, while 2016 still formally looked like politics, what is really going on here is a revolutionary war. For now this is war using memes rather than bullets, but war is much more than a metaphor.

This war is about much more than ideology, money or power. Even the participants likely do not fully understand the stakes. At a deep level, we are right in the middle of an existential conflict between two entirely different and incompatible ways of forming “collective intelligence”. ..... So I’m going to ... walk through a series of “fronts” of the war that I see playing out over the next several years.

Front One: Communications Infrastructure.

.... the first step of any conflict is to disrupt the enemy’s communications and control infrastructure.

Our legacy sensemaking system was largely composed of and dominated by a small set of communications channels. These included the largest newspapers (e.g., NYT and Washington Post) and television networks (e.g., CNN, CBS, Fox, etc.). Until very recently, effectively all sensemaking was mediated by these channels and, as a consequence, these channels delivered a highly effective mechanism for coordinated messaging and control. ...

..... Rather than endeavoring to establish control over the legacy infrastructure, the Trump Insurgency is in the process of destroying it entirely and replacing it with a very different architecture. ....

....They are simultaneously attacking the legacy power structures on multiple fronts (access, business viability and, in particular, legitimacy) while innovating entirely novel approaches to the problem of large scale communications and control (e.g., direct tweets from POTUS). ...

.... The Trump Insurgency .... form of governance is structurally incompatible with the legacy media architecture. It is intrinsically dissonant with the kind of top-down, slow, controlled, synchronized approach of the old media. It therefore both must dismantle this architecture and replace it with one that is in synch with its mode of operation and, thereby, benefits massively by hamstringing any collective intelligence that works in the old top-down fashion (i.e., all existing forces currently at play).

 I fully expect the Insurgency to win this fight. .... I expect the memetic efficacy of the New York Times, CNN, the Washington Post, MSNBC and related channels to be near zero within the next two to four years. I would not be surprised to see several of these entities actually out of business.

... the relative position of “new media” such as Twitter, Facebook and YouTube is harder to predict. I suspect that most of the important conflict of this front will take place here. Right now, all of new media is controlled by forces broadly opposed to the Insurgency. Yet the Insurgency must establish dominance on this territory. They can accomplish this either by capturing these existing platforms (aka “bend the knee” capitulation) or by moving the center of power to new platforms that are aligned with the Insurgency (e.g., gab.ai replacing Twitter).....

... the decisive decision... is whether the “new media” remain coupled to the legacy power structures .... or decouple and enter into a direct conflict for “decentralized supremacy” .... If they choose the former, they will lose. If they choose the latter, the outcome is hard to predict.

Front Two: The Deep State

In ordinary politics, an elected candidate is expected to integrate with and make relatively small fine-tuning changes to the existing state apparatus and the mass of career bureaucrats that make up most of the actual machinery of government (AKA the “deep state”). ....

.... the Trump Insurgency has identified the Deep State itself as its central antagonist and is engaged in a direct existential conflict with it.

Normally this would be an easy win for the Deep State. .... The Deep State is massive, has access to vast resources and capabilities and has been in the business of controlling power for decades. But two things are moving in the Insurgency’s favor.

First, the Deep State appears to be fragmented. For example, the “Russian Hacking” scenario of the past two months looks surprisingly uncoordinated and incompetent. .... it is clearly not the product of a unified and smoothly operating Deep State.

Second, it seems highly likely that the Deep State is prepared to fight “the last war” while the Insurgency is bringing an entirely different kind of fight....

Let’s take a look at the “fake news” meme for example. This has all the earmarks of a Deep State initiative. .... this was a Deep State response to the Communications Infrastructure fight. But it looks like this initiative has not only failed, but that the Insurgency has been able to ... to turn the entire thing around and make “fake news” its own tool. ..

.. the balance of the struggle ... will be determined by how quickly the Deep State can dispense with old and dysfunctional doctrine and innovate novel approaches...

.... the Deep State would be ill advised indeed to undertake any major efforts in the next 12–24 months....

... the Insurgency would be well advised to Blitzkrieg. Right now it has the advantage of an approach and a model that its opponent doesn’t understand and can’t react to effectively. .....

Front Three: Globalism

... if Trump clearly stood for anything, resisting the “false song of globalism” was it. ....

What is flat out astounding is the relative ease with which Trump has been able to cut through globalist Gordian Knots. For half a decade, the Trans-Pacific Partnership was an unstoppable juggernaut. Until, that is, Trump decided to end it. ....

... it is a significant victory and I am certain that it will embolden the Insurgency. At this point, I expect the Insurgency to cut deep into globalist power institutions (the World Bank, the UN, various treaty organizations) and, ... globalist-allied national institutions like the Federal Reserve. ...I see only two real moves available to the globalists. 1) economic destabilization hoping to turn “the people” against the Insurgency; 2) some kind of social/military destabilization.

But I don’t give the globalists much of a chance....

...Notably, even large multi-national corporations  ...seem to be rapidly capitulating to the Insurgency. The two major globalist forces that have not yet been publicly tested are the energy companies and the banks. What will happen here remains to be seen. ... The net-net result of this front will be a significant weakening of the post-War global institutional order and a rebalancing of power along ... nationalist alignments. ...

more at link

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