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2018-19 INFLATION Watch

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BREAKFAST ?
Cocoa

LhLv1Pl.png

Coffee

p6z1jRG.png

Sugar

JT2Vwc1.png

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$100 Oil Is Back On The Table

Barrels

Oil prices will rise to $100 per barrel if Saudi Arabia gets its way.

Only a week ago, news surfaced that Saudi officials were quietly hoping to push oil prices up to $80 per barrel, which would help boost the valuation of Saudi Aramco IPO. But why not $100 per barrel?

Reuters reports that Riyadh would be fine with prices rising that far, which lends weight to the notion that OPEC will keep the production cuts in place even as its mission to drain surplus oil inventories around the world appears to be largely “accomplished.”

OPEC and its non-OPEC partners are even considering yet another extension that would push the cuts into the middle of 2019. But with inventories back to average levels and expected to fall for the foreseeable future, the production limits would surely push the market into a deficit. The over-tightening, presumably, would lead to higher oil prices…just in time for the Aramco IPO.

OPEC just posted its fifth consecutive month in which it recorded a new record high compliance rate with the production limits. In March, according to Bloomberg, the compliance rate surged to 164 percent, a new high, up from 148 percent in February. Unsurprisingly, output fell in Venezuela, but Saudi Arabia also chipped in further reductions.

Two industry sources told Reuters that behind closed doors, Saudi officials have considered $80 per barrel, or even $100 per barrel, as sort of unofficial price targets. “We have come full circle,” a third high-level industry source told Reuters. “I would not be surprised if Saudi Arabia wanted oil at $100 until this IPO is out of the way.”

. . . Indeed, Saudi Arabia is still posting large fiscal deficits, which, if left unaddressed, present a long-term threat. Saudi foreign cash reserves are down to $488 billion, down a third from their peak in August 2014 at $737 billion, although to be sure, the pace of drawdowns has slowed. “Their breakeven is around $85 per barrel,” according to Francisco Blanch, global head of commodities research at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, citing a reason why they might continue to favor higher prices.

The risk of over-tightening the market, of course, is that it sparks an even greater response from U.S. shale. For now, a shortage of pipeline capacity in the Permian might insulate OPEC from the worst, but those bottlenecks will eventually be resolved.

Get ready for the most expensive driving season in years...

Crude oil prices are at the highest level in more than three years and expected to climb higher, pushing up gasoline prices along the way.

The U.S. daily national average for regular gasoline is now $2.81 per gallon. That's up from about $2.39 per gallon a year ago, according to Oil Price Information Service. And across the U.S., 13 percent of gas stations are charging $3 per gallon or more, AAA said last week.

"This will be the most expensive driving season since 2014," said Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis for Oil Price Information Service.


$300 Oil 'Not Impossible'...

  • Andurand says on Twitter lack of investment risks price spike
  • Higher prices aren’t a threat to the economy, Andurand says

Pierre Andurand, one of oil’s most prominent hedge fund managers, said the current reluctance of energy companies to invest in new production meant $300 a barrel was "not impossible" within a few years.

Andurand, who’s often espoused bullish views, said in a series of tweets on Sunday that concern about the impact of electric vehicles on future demand was limiting investment in projects with long lead times.

"So paradoxically these peak demand fears might bring the largest supply shock ever," he wrote. "If oil prices do not rise fast enough, $300 oil in a few years is not impossible."

The hedge fund manager, who runs oil-focused Andurand Capital Management LLP, also went against the conventional view that triple-digit oil prices will dampen demand growth.

"So no, $100 oil will not kill the economy," he wrote. "And we need +$100 oil to encourage enough investments outside of the U.S."

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SLV / Silver vs DBA / Grains ... from Oct.2011 : 5yr : 2yr : 6mo / +SIL :

image.png

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CRB has rallied to resistance near 205

FcIwizV.png

Silver and The CRB Are Pointing To A Break...But When? - by Al Korelin & Cory Flec, 2018-06-04 

MP3 : mp3_over.gif

0cZtZGE.png

--

 

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Inflation at Six-Year High, Eating Away at Wage Increases...

Consumer Prices Surge At Fastest Pace Since 2011, Real Wage Growth Slumps

Last night's Singaporean show was the prelude to the rest of the week's real action - central banks - and nothing drives The Fed more than inflation anxiety as exhibited by Core CPI this morning... and it printed hot.

For the 32nd consecutive month, the consensus estimate on the street was +0.2% MoM - and expectations were met - pushing the headline CPI to +2.8% YoY (as expected) - the highest since December 2011...

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People Spend 7% Of Income on GASOLINE

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Downwards Drift in many prices

  ==== : Fye'16 : Fye'17 : +-%chg :   03/02 :  03/29  :  04/27 :  06/01 :  06/08 : 06/15 :  06/22 :
Gold : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1323.4 :  1327.3 : 1323.4 : 1299.3 : 1302.7 : 1278.5 : 1270.7 :
GLD- : 109.61 : 123.65 : +12.8% : 125.39 : 125.79 : 125.50 : 122.49 : 123.01 : 121.34 : 120.34 :
SPY- : 223.53 : 266.86 : +19.4% : 269.08 : 263.15 : 266.56 : 270.94 : 278.19 : 277.13 : 274.74 :
SPX- : 2238.8 : 2673.6 : +19.4% : 2762.1 : 2691.3 : 2640.9 : 2669.9 : 2734.6 : 2779.0 : 2754.9 :
Sp/Au 194.4%: 204.2%: ====== : 203.4% : 199.0%: 201.7%: 210.5%: 213.3%: 217.4% : 216.8% :
XLE : $75.32 : $72.24 : -4.09%: $66.95: $67.41: $73.82 : $76.38 : $76.90 : $74.17 : $75.15 :
WTIc: $53.72 : $60.42 : +12.4% : $61.25 : $64.94 : $68.10 : $65.81 : $65.74 : $65.06 : $68.58 :
Au/Wt:  r-21.4 :  r-21.7 : ====== : r21.61 : r-20.44 : r-19.43 : r-19.74 : r-19.82 : r-19.65 : r-18.58 :
Ngas: $3.350 : $2.950 : - 11.9% : $2.690 : $2.730 : $2.770 : $2.960 : $2.890 : $3.020 : $2.940 :
Cop'r: $2.510 : $3.305 : +31.7% : $3.120 : $3.030 : $3.050 : $3.100 : $3.300 : $3.140 : $3.030 :
Weat : 408.00 : 426.25 : +4.47% : 500.00 : 451.00 : 498.50 : 523.12 : 520.00 : 499.50 : 504.25 :
Corn : 352.00 : 350.75 : - 0.36% : 385.25 : 387.75 : 398.50 : 391.50 : 377.75 : 361.25 : 357.25 :
CRB- : 192.51 : 193.86 : +0.07% : 194.12 : 195.36 : 201.39: 201.71 : 200.04 : 196.24 : 197.53 :
DBA : $19.97 : $18.76 : -6.06%: $19.39: $18.18: $19.22: $19.14 : $18.77 : $18.46 : $18.21 :
D/crb: 10.37% :  9.67% : ====== : 9.90% :  9.31% :   9.54% :  9.49%  :  9.38%  :  9.41% :  9.22% :
Xle/D: r-3.770 : r-3.850: +2.14%: r3.453 :  r-3.707 : r3.841 : r-3.990 : R-4.097 : r-4.018 : r-4.127 :
DXY- : 102.38 : $92.30 : - 9.85% :: $89.91 : $89.81 : $91.53 : $94.16 : $93.54 : $94.45 : $94.18 :
TLT- : 119.13 : 126.86 : + 6.49% : 118.35 : 121.90 : 118.89 : 120.30 : 119.53 : 120.38 : 120.53 :
====
 

NEW LOW in DBA - the Agri-grain etf

DBA / Invesco DB Agriculture Fund ... update

vDWwzcb.gif

Ratio: XLE-to-DBA
0ZGpFpk.png

Ratio: SLV -toDBA

96gXjzt.png

==

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OIL PRICES too high?

The Real Donald has a solution

12 hours ago

Just spoke to King Salman of Saudi Arabia and explained to him that, because of the turmoil & disfunction in Iran and Venezuela,

I am asking that Saudi Arabia increase oil production, maybe up to 2,000,000 barrels, to make up the difference...Prices to high! He has agreed!

 

Watch for the price to plunge on Monday

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Every Inflation Measurement Is Increasing

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Weekly Price Update

==== : Fye'16 : Fye'17 : +-%chg :   03/29  :  04/27 :  06/01 :  06/08 : 06/15 :  06/22 :   06/29 :  07/06  :  07/20 :
Gold : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1327.3 : 1323.4 : 1299.3 : 1302.7 : 1278.5 : 1270.7 : 1254.5 : 1255.8 : 1231.1 :
GLD- : 109.61 : 123.65 : +12.8% : 125.79 : 125.50 : 122.49 : 123.01 : 121.34 : 120.34 : 118.65 : 118.86 : 116.56 :
SPY- : 223.53 : 266.86 : +19.4% : 263.15 : 266.56 : 270.94 : 278.19 : 277.13 : 274.74 : 271.28 : 275.42 : 279.86 :
SPX- : 2238.8 : 2673.6 : +19.4% : 2691.3 : 2640.9 : 2669.9 : 2734.6 : 2779.0 : 2754.9 : 2718.4 : 2759.8 : 2801.8 :
Sp/Au 194.4%: 204.2%: ====== : 219.0%: 201.7%: 210.5%: 213.3%: 217.4%: 216.8%: 216.7%: 219.8% : 227.6% :
XLE : $75.32 : $72.24 : -4.09%: $67.41: $73.82 : $76.38 : $76.90: $74.17 : $75.15 : $75.94 : $75.67 : $74.89 :
WTIc: $53.72 : $60.42 : +12.4% : $64.94 : $68.10 : $65.81 : $65.74 : $65.06 : $68.58 : $74.15 : $73.80 : $68.26 :
Au/Wt:  r-21.4 :  r-21.7 : ====== : r-20.44 : r-19.43 : r-19.74 : r19.82 : r-19.65 : r-18.58 : r16.92 : r-17.02 : r-18.04 :
Ngas: $3.350 : $2.950 : - 11.9% : $2.730 : $2.770 : $2.960 : $2.890 : $3.020 : $2.940 : $2.920 : $2.880 : $2.760 :
Cop'r: $2.510 : $3.305 : +31.7% : $3.030 : $3.050 : $3.100 : $3.300 : $3.140 : $3.030 : $2.970 : $2.820 : $2.760 :
Weat : 408.00 : 426.25 : +4.47% : 451.00 : 498.50 : 523.12 : 520.00 : 499.50 : 504.25 : 501.25 : 515.25 : 516.00 :
Corn : 352.00 : 350.75 : - 0.36% : 387.75 : 398.50 : 391.50 : 377.75 : 361.25 : 357.25 : 371.25 : 373.00 : 369.00 :
CRB- : 192.51 : 193.86 : +0.07% : 195.36 : 201.39: 201.71 : 200.04 : 196.24 : 197.53 : 200.39 : 198.05 : 192.62 :
DBA : $19.97 : $18.76 : -6.06%: $18.18: $19.22: $19.14 : $18.77 : $18.46 : $18.21: $18.03: $17.91: $17.44 :
D/crb: 10.37% :  9.67% : ====== :  9.31% :   9.54% :  9.49%  :  9.38%  :  9.41% :  9.22% :  8.99% :  9.04% :  9.05%
Xle/D: r-3.770 : r-3.850: +2.14%: r-3.707 : r3.841 : r-3.990 : R-4.097 : r-4.018 : r-4.127 : r-4.212 : r-4.121 : r-4.294 :
DXY- : 102.38 : $92.30 : - 9.85% :: $89.81 : $91.53 : $94.16 : $93.54 : $94.45 : $94.18 : $94.47 : $93.97 : $94.30 :
TLT- : 119.13 : 126.86 : + 6.49% : 121.90 : 118.89 : 120.30 : 119.53 : 120.38 : 120.53 : 121.72 : 122.75 : 120.76 :
 

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2.5 Billion Pounds of Meat Piles Up in U.S. as Production Grows, Exports Slow

Profits, prices are threatened as record amounts of red meat and poultry fill U.S. warehouses

Meat is piling up in U.S. cold-storage warehouses, fueled by a surge in supplies and trade disputes that are eroding demand.

Federal data, coming as early as Monday, are expected to show a record level of beef, pork, poultry and turkey being stockpiled in U.S. facilities, rising above 2.5 billion pounds, agricultural analysts said.

U.S. consumers’ appetite for meat is growing, but not fast enough to keep up with record production of hogs and chickens. That leaves the U.S. meat industry increasingly reliant on exports, but Mexico and China—among the largest foreign buyers of U.S. meat—have both set tariffs on U.S. pork products in response to U.S. tariffs on steel, aluminum and other goods. U.S. hams, chops and livers have become sharply more expensive in those markets, which is starting to slow sales, industry officials said.

The meat industry’s growing production already is filling the specialized warehouses built to store meat and other goods. “We are packed full,” said Joe Rumsey, president of Arkansas-based Zero Mountain Inc. The company’s five storage facilities serve as way stations for turkeys and chicken strips between processors and retailers, holding around 250 million pounds of products on any given day.

Growing meat stockpiles may bring down prices for meat-hungry U.S. consumers, along with restaurants and retailers. But slowing overseas sales and rising domestic stockpiles threaten profit for meat processors and prices for livestock and poultry producers. Since the end of May, prices of lean hog futures at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange have dropped 14%.

> MORE: https://www.wsj.com/articles/meat-piles-up-as-production-grows-and-exports-slow-1532268000

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Gold (GBS.L) vs. Resource related etfs, Energy shs (XLE) & Agricultural-Grains (DBA) ... > 3/2004 : 1/2008 : 3yr : 6mo :

5qAKQ8l.gif

1/2008

b74Gur0.gif

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WHY is DBA / Agri-etf so Weak?

DBA / Invesco DB Agriculture Fund (ETF) ... from 1/2008 : Last: $17.48 / 12 mos.: 17.23 to 20.00

elwlpgs.gif

The Invesco DB Agriculture Fund tracks an index of 10 agricultural commodity futures contracts.

It selects contracts based on the shape of the futures curve to minimize contango.

All 10 Holdings

Commodity : - Pct.- : Symbol :  07/23 : /DBA--- :
Soybean      : 14.15% : $soyb    : 862.7  : r-49.36 :
Cocoa          : 12.70% : $cocoa  : 2299. : r-131.5 :
Coffee 'C'     : 12.48% : $coffee : 1.117 : r-6.39% :
Wheat           : 11.88% : $wheat  :  513.8 : r-29.39 :
Live Cattle    : 11.66% :$bcomLC 66.50 : r-3.804 :
Sugar            : 11.40% : $sugar  :  0.111 : r-0.06% :
Corn              :   9.87% : $corn    :  371.3 : r-21.24 :
Lean Hogs    :  8.29% :$bcomLH  5.484 : r-31.4% :
Cattle Feeder : 4.23% :  ? ? ? :
Cotton No.2   : 3.34% : $cotton  :  86.81 : r-4.970 :

> source: http://etfdb.com/etf/DBA/

Top Five commodities - under price pressure
SOYB/ Soybeans
hGombcR.png
COCOA
xupqr6C.png
COFFEE
d3x5LG9.png
WHEAT
xx
LC / Live Cattle
xx

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How much lower can Silver & Ags go?

Weekly DATA - Gold's erosion continues. DBA steady (for a change). BTC Up

==== : Fye'16 : Fye'17 : +-%chg :   03/29  :  04/27 :  06/01 : 06/29 :   07/06 :  07/20 :  07/27 :
Gold : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1327.3 : 1323.4 : 1299.3 : 1254.5 : 1255.8 : 1231.1 : 1223.0 : - 0.7%
GLD- : 109.61 : 123.65 : +12.8% : 125.79 : 125.50 : 122.49 : 118.65 : 118.86 : 116.56 : 115.83 :
SPY- : 223.53 : 266.86 : +19.4% : 263.15 : 266.56 : 270.94 : 271.28 : 275.42 : 279.86 : 281.43 :
SPX- : 2238.8 : 2673.6 : +19.4% : 2691.3 : 2640.9 : 2669.9 :2718.4 : 2759.8 : 2801.8 : 2818.8 :
Sp/Au 194.4%: 204.2%: ====== : 219.0%: 201.7%: 210.5%: 216.7%: 219.8% : 227.6% : 230.4% :
XLE : $75.32 : $72.24 : -4.09%: $67.41: $73.82 : $76.38 : $75.94 : $75.67 : $74.89 : $76.63 :
WTIc: $53.72 : $60.42 : +12.4% : $64.94 : $68.10 : $65.81 : $74.15 : $73.80 : $68.26 : $68.69 :
Au/Wt:  r-21.4 :  r-21.7 : ====== : r-20.44 : r-19.43 : r-19.74 : r16.92 : r-17.02 : r-18.04 : r-17.80 :
Ngas: $3.350 : $2.950 : - 11.9% : $2.730 : $2.770 : $2.960 : $2.920 : $2.880 : $2.760 : $2.780 :
Cop'r: $2.510 : $3.305 : +31.7% : $3.030 : $3.050 : $3.100 : $2.970 : $2.820 : $2.760 : $2.800 :
Weat : 408.00 : 426.25 : +4.47% : 451.00 : 498.50 : 523.12 : 501.25 : 515.25 : 516.00 : 530.50 :
Corn : 352.00 : 350.75 : - 0.36% : 387.75 : 398.50 : 391.50 : 371.25 : 373.00 : 369.00 : 376.25 :
CRB- : 192.51 : 193.86 : +0.07% : 195.36 : 201.39: 201.71 : 200.39 : 198.05 : 192.62 : 194.16 :
DBA : $19.97 : $18.76 : -6.06%: $18.18: $19.22: $19.14 : $18.03: $17.91: $17.44 : $17.47 : +0.2%
D/crb: 10.37% :  9.67% : ====== :  9.31% :   9.54% :  9.49%  :  8.99% :  9.04% :   9.05% :  9.00% :
Xle/D: r-3.770 : r-3.850: +2.14%: r-3.707 : r3.841 : r-3.990 : r-4.212 : r-4.121 : r-4.294 : r-4 386 :
DXY- : 102.38 : $92.30 : - 9.85% :: $89.81 : $91.53 : $94.16 : $94.47 : $93.97 : $94.30 : $94.67 :
TLT- : 119.13 : 126.86 : + 6.49% : 121.90 : 118.89 : 120.30 : 121.72 : 122.75 : 120.76 : 119.46 :
====
Gold : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1327.3 : 1323.4 : 1299.3 : 1254.5 : 1255.8 : 1231.1 : 1223.0 :
Au/hd: r1.401 : r1.58E : ====== : r-1.569 : r-1.519 : r-1.55E : r-1.532 : r-1.565 : r-1.54E : r-1.528 :
Hold : 822.17 : 830.00 : +01.0% : 846.12 : 871.20 : 838.EE  : 819.04 : 802.24 : 800.EE : 800.20 :
WPM : $19.32 : $22.27 : +15.3% : $20.37 : $21.35 : $21.91 : $22.06 : $22.68 : $21.31 : $20.94 :
GDX- : $20.92 : $23.24 : +11.1% : $21.98 : $22.73 : $22.31 : $22.31 :$22.61 : $21.78 : $21.32 :
Gdxj : $31.55 : $34.13 : +8.18% : $32.15 : $33.03 : $32.80 : $32.70 : $33.50 : $32.09 : $31.92 :
SIL - : $32.11 : $32.64 : +1.65% : $30.72 : $30.94 : $30.54 : $28.88 : $29.45 : $28.09 : $27.53 : - 2.0%
/SLV: R2.053 : R2.042 : - 0.54% : R1.994 : R1.987 : R1.978 : R1.910 : R1.953 : R1.925 : R1.89 :
SLV- : $15.64 : $15.98 : +2.08% : $15.41 : $15.57 : $15.44 : $15.15 : $15.08 : $14.59 : $14.57 : - 0.1%
Silvr : 16.580 : 17.150 : +3.44% :  16.268 : 16.500 : 16.440 : 16.200 : 16.070 : 15.550 : 15.490 :
BTC-- : $948.5 : 13,100 : x13.8X : $7,401 : $9,230 : $7,432 : $5,883  : $6,564 : $7,463 : $8,143 : + 9.1%
==== : Fye'16 : Fye'17 : +-%chg :  03/29  : 04/27 :  06/01 :   06/29 :  07/06 :  07/20 :  07/27 :

DBA vs. SLV /(Agri.etf vs. Silver etf) ... update fr. 2.14.2017 : fr. 5.14.2015 :  fr. 5.24.2013 :

QDH3eQv.gif

update fr. 5.24.2013 :

cS8YCgM.gif

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WEEKLY DATA (being updated)

 ==== : Fye'16 : Fye'17 : +-%chg :   03/29  :  04/27 :  06/01 :  06/29 :   07/27 : 08/03 : 08/10 :
Gold : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1327.3 : 1323.4 : 1299.3 : 1254.5 : 1223.0 : 1223.2 : 1219.0 :
GLD- : 109.61 : 123.65 : +12.8% : 125.79 : 125.50 : 122.49 : 118.65 : 115.83 : 114.92 : 114.69 :
SPY- : 223.53 : 266.86 : +19.4% : 263.15 : 266.56 : 270.94 : 271.28 : 281.43 : 283.60 : 283.16 :
SPX- : 2238.8 : 2673.6 : +19.4% : 2691.3 : 2640.9 : 2669.9 : 2718.4 : 2818.8 : 2840.4 : 2833.3 :
Sp/Au 194.4%: 204.2%: ====== : 219.0%: 201.7%: 210.5%: 216.7%: 230.4% : 232.2% : 232.4% :
XLE : $75.32 : $72.24 : -4.09%: $67.41: $73.82 : $76.38 : $75.94 : $76.63 : $75.24 : $75.29 :
WTIc: $53.72 : $60.42 : +12.4% : $64.94 : $68.10 : $65.81 : $74.15 : $68.69 : $68.49 : $67.63 :
Au/Wt:  r-21.4 :  r-21.7 : ====== : r-20.44 : r-19.43 : r-19.74 : r16.92 : r-17.80 : R-17.86 : r18.02 :
Ngas: $3.350 : $2.950 : - 11.9% : $2.730 : $2.770 : $2.960 : $2.920 : $2.780 : $2.850 : $2.940 :
Cop'r: $2.510 : $3.305 : +31.7% : $3.030 : $3.050 : $3.100 : $2.970 : $2.800 : $2.760 : $2.740 :
Soyb : 1000.0 : 950.00 : --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------->: 861.75 :
Weat : 408.00 : 426.25 : +4.47% : 451.00 : 498.50 : 523.12 : 501.25 : 530.50 : 556.25 : 546.75 :
Corn : 352.00 : 350.75 : - 0.36% : 387.75 : 398.50 : 391.50 : 371.25 : 376.25 : 384.25 : 371.75 :
CRB- : 192.51 : 193.86 : +0.07% : 195.36 : 201.39: 201.71 : 200.39 : 194.16 : 193.23 : 191.69 :
DBA : $19.97 : $18.76 : -6.06%: $18.18: $19.22: $19.14 : $18.03: $17.47 : $17.51 : $17.21 :
D/crb: 10.37% :  9.67% : ====== :  9.31% :   9.54% :  9.49%  :  8.99% :  9.00% :  9.06% :  8.98% :
Xle/D: r-3.770 : r-3.850: +2.14%: r-3.707 : r3.841 : r-3.990 : r-4.212 :r-4.386 : r-4.300 : r-4.375 :
DXY- : 102.38 : $92.30 : - 9.85% :: $89.81 : $91.53 : $94.16 : $94.47 : $94.67 : $95.16 : $96.27 :
TLT- : 119.13 : 126.86 : + 6.49% : 121.90 : 118.89 : 120.30 : 121.72 : 119.46 : 119.22 : 120.66 :

SLV- : $15.64 : $15.98 : +2.08% : $15.41 : $15.57 : $15.44 : $15.15 : $14.57 : $14.50 : $14.41 :
====

NEW LOW in DBA at $17.21

DBA vs. SLV /(Agri.etf vs. Silver etf) ... update fr. 2.14.2017 : fr. 5.14.2015 :  fr. 5.24.2013 : $17.21/$14.41= R

SlOR0X2.gif

DBA to SLV /(Agri.etf vs. Silver etf) ... update : $17.21/$14.41= Ratio 119.4%

tMc05VB.png

DBA (agri.commodities) vs. Precious Metals (GLD, SLV) fr. 5.24.2013 : with GLD : $114.69 and $17.21/$14.41= Ratio 119.4%

98i6KHC.gif

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WEEKLY Data

==== : Fye'16 : Fye'17 : +-%chg :   03/29  : 06/29 :   09/28 : 10/05 :  10/12 :  10/19 :
Gold : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1327.3 : 1254.5 : 1196.2 : 1205.6 : 1222.8 : 1228.1 :
GLD- : 109.61 : 123.65 : +12.8% : 125.79 : 118.65 : 112.76 : 113.90 : 115.23 : 116.01 :
SPY- : 223.53 : 266.86 : +19.4% : 263.15 : 271.28 : 290.72 : 287.82 : 272.95 : 276.25 :
SPX- : 2238.8 : 2673.6 : +19.4% : 2691.3 : 2718.4 : 2914.0 : 2885.6 : 2767.1 : 2767.8 :
Sp/Au 194.4%: 204.2%: ====== : 219.0%: 216.7%: 243.6%: 239.3%: 226.4% : 225.3% :
XLE : $75.32 : $72.24 : -4.09% : $67.41: $75.94 : $75.74 : $77.16: $73.00: $71.53 :
WTIc: $53.72 : $60.42 : +12.4% : $64.94 : $74.15 : $73.25 : $74.34 : $71.34 : $69.28 :
Au/Wt:  r-21.4 :  r-21.7 : ====== : r-20.44 : r16.92 : r-16.33 : r-16.22 : r-17.13 : r-17.74 :
Ngas: $3.350 : $2.950 : - 11.9% : $2.730 : $2.920 : $3.010 : $3.140 : $3.160 : $3.250 :
Cop'r: $2.510 : $3.305 : +31.7% : $3.030 : $2.970 : $2.810 : $2.760 : $2.800 : $2.780 :
Soyb : 1000.0 : 950.00 : ---------------------------------------> 845.50 : 869.00 : 867.50 : 856.75 :
Weat : 408.00 : 426.25 : +4.47% : 451.00 : 501.25 : 509.00 : 521.00 : 517.25 : 514.75 :
Corn : 352.00 : 350.75 : -0.36% : 387.75 : 371.25 : 356.25 : 368.25 : 373.75 : 367.00 :
CRB- : 192.51 : 193.86 : +0.07% : 195.36 : 200.39 : 195.16 : 199.04 : 197.94 : 197.18 :
DBA : $19.97 : $18.76 : -6.06%: $18.18: $18.03: $16.91 : $17.35 : $17.55 : $17.54 :
D/crb: 10.37% :  9.67% : ====== :  9.31% :   8.99% :  8.66% :  8.71% :   8.87% :  8.90% :
Xle/D: r-3.770 : r-3.850: +2.14%: R3.707 : R4.212 :  R4.479: R4.450 : R4.160 : R4.080 :
DXY- : 102.38 : $92.30 : - 9.85% : $89.81 : $94.47 : $95.13 : $95.60 : $95.23 : $95.64 :
TLT- : 119.13 : 126.86 : + 6.49% : 121.90 : 121.72 : 117.27 : 113.04 : 114.47 : 113.71 :
=====

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Inflation Watch - Gold may have bottomed

GBS/Gold, Oil shares, EUR, DBA/Agri ... update :

72guPL4.gif

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DBA - Agri prices starting to look firmer, as Oil slides

WEEKLY Data - Needs update

 ==== : Fye'16 : Fye'17 : +-%chg :   03/29  : 06/29 :   09/28 : 10/26 :  11/02 :
Gold : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1327.3 : 1254.5 : 1196.2 : 1235.1 : 1233.1 :
GLD- : 109.61 : 123.65 : +12.8% : 125.79 : 118.65 : 112.76 : 116.77 : 116.65 :
SPY- : 223.53 : 266.86 : +19.4% : 263.15 : 271.28 : 290.72 : 265.33 : 271.89 :
SPX- : 2238.8 : 2673.6 : +19.4% : 2691.3 : 2718.4 : 2914.0 : 2658.7 : 2723.1 :
Sp/Au 194.4%: 204.2%: ====== : 219.0%: 216.7%: 243.6%: 215.3% : 220.8% :
XLE : $75.32 : $72.24 : -4.09% : $67.41: $75.94 : $75.74 : $66.48 : $67.56 :
WTIc: $53.72 : $60.42 : +12.4% : $64.94 : $74.15 : $73.25 : $67.59 : $63.14 :
Au/Wt:  r-21.4 :  r-21.7 : ====== : r-20.44 : r16.92 : r-16.33 : r-18.27 : r-19.53 :
Ngas: $3.350 : $2.950 : - 11.9% : $2.730 : $2.920 : $3.010 : $3.220 : $3.280 :
Cop'r: $2.510 : $3.305 : +31.7% : $3.030 : $2.970 : $2.810 : $2.740 : $2.810 :
Soyb : 1000.0 : 950.00 : ---------------------------------------> 845.50 : 857.75 : 887.75 :
Weat : 408.00 : 426.25 : +4.47% : 451.00 : 501.25 : 509.00 : 505.25 : 508.75 :
Corn : 352.00 : 350.75 : - 0.36% : 387.75 : 371.25 : 356.25 : 367.75 : 371.25 :
CRB- : 192.51 : 193.86 : +0.07% : 195.36 : 200.39 : 195.16 : 195.51 : 192.30 :
DBA : $19.97 : $18.76 : -6.06%: $18.18: $18.03: $16.91 : $17.72 : $17.77 :
D/crb: 10.37% :  9.67% : ====== :  r9.31% : r8.99% : r8.66% : r9.06%: r9.24% :
Xle/D: r-3.770 : r-3.850: +2.14%: R3.707 : R4.212 :  R4.479: R3.750 : R3.802 :
DXY- : 102.38 : $92.30 : - 9.85% : $89.81 : $94.47 : $95.13 : $96.13 : $96.50 :
TLT- : 119.13 : 126.86 : + 6.49% : 121.90 : 121.72 : 117.27 : 114.99 : 112.00 :
=====

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Has Inflation Bottomed?

WEEKLY Data - RISK OFF! : Stocks down -4.60%, while Gold rise +2.66%

==== : Fye'16 : Fye'17 : +-%chg :   03/29  : 06/29 :   09/28 :  10/26 :  11/23 :  11/30 :  12/07  :
Gold : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1327.3 : 1254.5 : 1196.2 : 1235.1 : 1223.2 : 1220.2 : 1252.6 : +2.66%
GLD- : 109.61 : 123.65 : +12.8% : 125.79 : 118.65 : 112.76 : 116.77 : 115.64 : 115.54 : 118.09 :
SPY- : 223.53 : 266.86 : +19.4% : 263.15 : 271.28 : 290.72 : 265.33 : 267.50 : 275.65 : 263.57 : - 4.38%
SPX- : 2238.8 : 2673.6 : +19.4% : 2691.3 : 2718.4 : 2914.0 : 2658.7 : 2632.5 : 2760.2 : 2633.1 : - 4.60%
Sp/Au 194.4%: 204.2%: ====== : 219.0%: 216.7%: 243.6%: 215.3% : 215.2%: 226.2% : 210.2% :
XLE : $75.32 : $72.24 : -4.09% : $67.41: $75.94 : $75.74: $66.48 : $63.91 : $66.11 : $64.07 :
WTIc: $53.72 : $60.42 : +12.4% : $64.94 : $74.15 : $73.25 : $67.59 : $50.42 :  $50.93 : $52.61 :
Au/Wt:  r-21.4 :  r-21.7 : ====== : r-20.44 : r16.92 : r-16.33 : r-18.27 : r-24.26 : R-23.96 : r-23.81
Ngas: $3.350 : $2.950 : - 11.9% : $2.730 : $2.920 : $3.010 : $3.220 : $4.350 : $4.600 : $4.488 :
Cop'r: $2.510 : $3.305 : +31.7% : $3.030 : $2.970 : $2.810 : $2.740 : $2.760 : $2.790 : $2.760 :
Soyb : 1000.0 : 950.00 : --------------------------------------> 845.50 : 857.75 : 881.00 : 895.00 : 916.75 :
Weat : 408.00 : 426.25 : +4.47%: 451.00 : 501.25 : 509.00 : 505.25 : 507.25 : 516.00 : 531.25 :
Corn : 352.00 : 350.75 : - 0.36% : 387.75 : 371.25 : 356.25 : 367.75 : 359.00 : 378.00 : 385.50 :
CRB- : 192.51 : 193.86 : +0.07% : 195.36 : 200.39 : 195.16 : 195.51 : 179.50 : 181.74 : 184.15 :
DBA : $19.97 : $18.76 : -6.06%: $18.18: $18.03: $16.91 : $17.72 : $17.16 : $17.29 : $17.41 :
D/crb: 10.37% :  9.67% : ======:  r9.31% : r8.99% : r8.66% : r9.06%: R9.56% : r9.51% : R9.45% :
Xle/D: r-3.770 : r-3.850: +2.14%: R3.707 : R4.212 :  R4.479 : R3.750 : R3.724 : r3.823 : R3.680 :
DXY- : 102.38 : $92.30 : - 9.85% : $89.81 : $94.47 : $95.13 : $96.13 : $96.94 : $97.20 : $96.48 :
TLT- : 119.13 : 126.86 : + 6.49% : 121.90 : 121.72 : 117.27 : 114.99 : 115.14 : 115.33 : 118.41 :
BTC-- : $948.5 : 13,100 : x13.8X : $7,401 : $5,883 : $6,652 : $6,396 :  $4,285 : $3,979 : $3,402 :
==== : Fye'16 : Fye'17 : +-%chg :   03/29  : 06/29 :   09/28 :  10/26 :  11/23 :  11/30 :  12/07  :

DBA vs CRB, SLV : update :

1L19tmA.gif

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Here’s Where Jim Wyckoff Thinks Gold Is Headed For 2019

Raw commodities have reached a cyclical low and should be headed for higher prices in the years to come, this according to Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst for Kitco News.
“Raw commodities, in the past year or so, I believe has put in a longer-term cyclical low. That means in the coming years those raw commodity prices are going to work higher,” Wyckoff said

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WEEKLY Data - RISK OFF still! : Stocks down huge -??%, while Gold rose +XX%

==== : Fye'16 : Fye'17 : +-%chg :   03/29  : 06/29 :   09/28 :  10/26 :  11/30 :  12/21 :
Gold : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1327.3 : 1254.5 : 1196.2 : 1235.1 : 1220.2 : 1258.1 :
GLD- : 109.61 : 123.65 : +12.8% : 125.79 : 118.65 : 112.76 : 116.77 : 115.54 : 118.72 :
SPY- : 223.53 : 266.86 : +19.4% : 263.15 : 271.28 : 290.72 : 265.33 : 275.65 : 240.70 :
SPX- : 2238.8 : 2673.6 : +19.4% : 2691.3 : 2718.4 : 2914.0 : 2658.7 : 2760.2 : 2416.6 :
Sp/Au 194.4%: 204.2%: ====== : 219.0%: 216.7%: 243.6%: 215.3% : 226.2%: 192.1% :
XLE : $75.32 : $72.24 : -4.09% : $67.41: $75.94 : $75.74: $66.48 : $66.11 : $56.11 :
WTIc: $53.72 : $60.42 : +12.4% : $64.94 : $74.15 : $73.25 : $67.59 : $50.93 : $45.59 :
OIH-: $33.35 : $26.05: -11.9% : $23.87 : $26.27 : $25.19 : $21.14: $18.80: $13.65 :
OI/Wt:  62.1% : 43.1% : ====== : 36.76% : 35.43%: 34.39% : 31.28%: 36.91%: 29.94%:
Ngas: $3.350 : $2.950 : - 11.9% : $2.730 : $2.920 : $3.010 : $3.220 : $4.600 : $3.750 :
Cop'r: $2.510 : $3.305 : +31.7% : $3.030 : $2.970 : $2.810 : $2.740 : $2.790 : $2.670 :
Soyb : 1000.0 : 950.00 : ---------------------------------------> 845.50 : 857.75 : 895.00 : 897.75 :
Weat : 408.00 : 426.25 : +4.47%: 451.00 : 501.25 : 509.00 : 505.25 : 516.00 : 514.00 :
Corn : 352.00 : 350.75 : - 0.36% : 387.75 : 371.25 : 356.25 : 367.75 : 378.00 : 378.50 :
CRB- : 192.51 : 193.86 : +0.07% : 195.36 : 200.39 : 195.16 : 195.51 : 181.74 : 172.13 :
DBA : $19.97 : $18.76 : -6.06%: $18.18: $18.03: $16.91 : $17.72 : $17.29 : $17.00 :
D/crb: 10.37% :  9.67% : ======:  r9.31% : r8.99% : r8.66% : r9.06% : r9.51% : R9.88% :
Xle/D: r-3.770 : r-3.850: +2.14%: R3.707 : R4.212 :  R4.479 : R3.750 : r3.823 : R3.301 :
DXY- : 102.38 : $92.30 : - 9.85% : $89.81 : $94.47 : $95.13 : $96.13 : $97.20 : $96.95 :
TLT- : 119.13 : 126.86 : + 6.49% : 121.90 : 121.72 : 117.27 : 114.99 : 115.33 : 120.72 :
=====
Gold : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1327.3 : 1254.5 : 1196.2 : 1235.1 : 1220.2 : 1258.1 :
Au/hd: r1.401 : r1.58E : ====== : r-1.569 : r-1.532 : r-1.612 : r1.64E : R1.602 : R1.628 :
Hold : 822.17 : 830.00 : +01.0% : 846.12 : 819.04 : 742.23 : 755est : 761.74 : 772.67 :
WPM : $19.32 : $22.27: +15.3% : $20.37 : $22.06 : $17.50 : $16.40 : $15.64 : $18.91 :
GDX- : $20.92 : $23.24 : +11.1% : $21.98 : $22.31 :$18.52 : $19.06 : $19.09 : $20.44 :
Gdxj : $31.55 : $34.13 : +8.18% : $32.15 : $32.70 : $27.36 : $28.27 : $26.59 : $28.94 :
SIL-- : $32.11 : $32.64 : +1.65% : $30.72 : $28.88 : $24.23 : $23.91 : $23.05 : $24.74 :
/SLV: R2.053 : R2.042 : - 0.54% : R1.994 : R1.910 : r1.765 : R1.731 :  R1.730 : R1.801 :
SLV- : $15.64 : $15.98 : +2.08% : $15.41 : $15.15 : $13.73 : $13.81 : $13.32 : $13.74 :
Silvr : 16.580 : 17.150 : +3.44% : 16.268 :  16.200 : 14.710 : 14.66? : 14.350 : 14.700 :
PHM : $18.38 : $33.34 : +81.4% : $29.49 : $28.75 : $24.77 : $23.93 : $26.52 : $25.13 :
EEM- : $35.01 : $47.30 : +35.1% : $48.28 : $43.33 : $42.92 : $38.67 : $41.08 : $38.52 :
ShCm: 3103.7 : 3307.2 : +6.56% : 3168.9: 2847.4 : 2821.3 : 2598.8 : 2588.2 : 2516.3 :
PhpSi: 6840.6 : 8558.4 : +25.1% : 7979.8: 7193.7 : 7276.8 : 7076.2 : 7367.9 : 7479.7 :
XLF-  : $23.25 : $27.19 : +16.9% : $27.57: $26.59 : $27.58 : $25.26 : $26.83 : $22.79 :
IWM- : 134.85 : 152.43 : +13.0% : 151.83: 163.77 : 168.55 : 147.48 : 151.83 : 128.37 :
F/iwm 17.24%: 17.84%: =====  : 18.16% : 16.24%: 16.36% : 17.13%: 17.67%: 17.75% :
BTC-- : $948.5 : 13,100 : x13.8X : $7,401 : $5,883 : $6,652 : $6,396 :  $3,979 : $4,035 :
==== : Fye'16 : Fye'17 : +-%chg :   03/29  : 06/29 :   09/28 :  10/26 :  11/30 :  12/21 :

OIH vs- CRB and XLE ... update :

WKx93Gt.gif

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INFLATION - is WORSE than they are telling you it is...

Brace For Impact: As Credit-Asset Bubbles Pop, The Dominoes Start Falling

Excerpt:

Costs are soaring despite the low rate of officially measured inflation. I recently found some notes from 1995–a long time ago, 24 years. The dot-com bubble–the first of this era’s three great asset bubbles–was inflating rapidly but official inflation was low, around 2.5% to 3% annually.

A slice of pizza was $1.50, a main dish in a Chinese restaurant was $4.50 and rent for a one-bedroom apartment in the S.F. Bay Area was $650/month. Now the pizza slice is $4.25 plus 9.25% tax, $4.65; the main dish is $11.95 plus 9.25% tax, $13.05, and rents for one-bedroom apartments far exceed $2,000/month in desirable neighborhoods.

Official inflation is $1 in 1995 equals $1.67 today. So a $1.50 slice of pizza in 1995 should cost $2.50 today, the $4.50 main dish should cost $7.50, and the $650 monthly rent should be $1,085. Real-world inflation has outstripped the bogus official rate in sector after sector. So TVs have dropped in price; big deal. How often do you buy a TV?

Costs have tripled in 24 years, but have wages tripled? No. 

In many cases, they haven’t even kept pace with official inflation, much less real-world inflation. How many people earning $40,000 in 1995 are now earning $67,000, the minimum increase needed to match the rise in official inflation? Nobody I know. How many positions paying $40,000 in 1995 are now paying $120,000 for the same job? I think we can safely say none.

top5-spending2.png

Long-term distribution of gains continues to favor the top 1%.

wealth-inequality2.jpg

## The majority of gains in income and wealth have flowed to the top 5%, and most of the gains in the top 5% have flowed to the apex of that income bracket. So when we read that average household wealth has increased or median wages have increased, the reality is these statistics mask the actual distribution of income and wealth gains, which are skewed heavily to the top 5% income/wealth brackets.

> https://www.investmentwatchblog.com/brace-for-impact-as-credit-asset-bubbles-pop-the-dominoes-start-falling/

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