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DrBubb's Diary - Jan. 2018 Trading - v.108

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Top of Page Charts (Odd) : Channel-GE : MP : PP : Charts : Acore : Fringe : Ag B E G H :

t24_au_en_usoz_6.gif : 24hr-euro-small.gif : t24_au_en_euoz_2.gif : AuTD1.png?id=11409261605

idx24_russell_en_2.gif : t24_ag_en_usoz_2.gif:: idx24_hui_en_2.gif : AgTD0.png?id=11409221912

3d : ag : au / Btc / 8yr: 12mo : 5m : 2m : 1m : 25 10 5d 2d :

China/SGE: 4,200 RMB/kg / 6.150 = $ 683 / 35.274 = $19.36 (discount of about 20-25 cents?)

Goldstock : HK-2840 : GBS.L : GLD : GDX : NUGT : tza/faz -- HKpeg : DXY : StkX : 10-d : SPX : sjw : img :

HK 3081: 2899: 1051: hs / UK: POG / ABX : Sil : IAG : dba-etc. ... lot : PB : CVN : CC2 : BTC 1m 2d : SLV-lv

===============================================

SPdPB24.png

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Technical strategist who's been very right about the bull market warns about a tech stock-led pullback

104940637-5ED2-SB-011118-KeyTechnical.60

A pullback appears likely, but it would represent a buying opportunity before stocks produce more gains, BTIG's Katie Stockton says.
    She says market internal measures have reached extremes and warrant attention.
    "It's going to be the FAANG stocks and the like that do ultimately drive a pullback here," she warns.

Strategist says keep an eye on these key technical levels

Strategist says keep an eye on these key technical levels   18 Hours Ago |

A pullback in the market appears likely, but it would represent a buying opportunity before stocks produce more gains, the chief technical strategist at BTIG said Thursday.

On CNBC's "Squawk Box," Katie Stockton, whose calls on the market have been very right lately, said internal measures have reached worrying levels that warrant attention.

"Just in the past week or so with that run-up we saw on the S&P 500, about 2.5 percent, we saw major extremes in these measures of sentiment and breadth," she contended.

The percentage of stocks above their 50-day moving averages within the S&P 500 reached 83 percent, Stockton said.

"That was the highest level since mid-2016, which did proceed a pullback," she said. "These market internal measures ... [are at] extremes that need to be relieved."

"It's going to be the FAANG stocks and the like that do ultimately drive a pullback here," she added. The term FAANG, refers to Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix and Google-parent Alphabet.

In her January note to clients, Stockton wrote that she ultimately sees gains for 2018. But she warned of "deeper pullbacks" that will "keep the slope of the uptrend in check this year." She terms the gains as "more modest" than the 19.4 percent advance for the S&P 500 in 2017.

 

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Bitcoin cycle of just under 1 day (22 hours?) ... update

59Eja6Y.png

==

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Just popping my head back in to say Hi..

 

and interesting to watch the latest movement in DXY which now looks like its completing a major H&S topping pattern. This could be the start of the s%^t hitting the fan, although I suspect Main Street will hum along nicely on surface right up to the point where we realise the time to panic has long since passed.

 

 

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"Interesting to watch the latest movement in DXY which now looks like its completing a major H&S topping pattern.

This could be the start of the s%^t hitting the fan" - Van

Hi, Van.

Very nice to see you posting here.  I do hope that all is well with you.

Yes, the USD is threatening to make a major breakdown.  Funnily enough, that may permit the long term rally in stocks, that Elliott-waver Tony Caldaro has predicted.

It might also put Gold back into a solid Bull market.  Following the GBS, the Gold etf that trades in London

GBS / Gold etf ... all-data : 5-yr :

d2jqTuv.gif

HUI
NYSE Arca Gold BUGS Index ... all-data : 5-yr :
XaOpT38.gif

==

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FTSE-100 could be breaking out... or getting Toppy

UKX ... all-data : 5-yr :

PSHPa5S.gif

XLF / etf for Financials ... update

LDTvdqc.gif

GS / Goldman Sachs ... update

image.png

=

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Debt Bubbles come down like an avalanche

Rich Dad Author Says The Next Financial Crash Will be Like an "Avalanche"

For bestselling author Robert Kiyosaki, crashes, debt and taxes are the secret to how the rich are getting richer, so is 2018 setup to deliver?"I hope so," said Kiyosaki the author of Rich Dad, Poor Dad and his latest, How the Rich are Getting Richer. And with the stock market continuing to hit all-time highs, Kiyosaki said the next financial crash is "imminent," simply because "something has to happen." "Since 2004 we have been in a debt bubble and the problem

... (read more)

When everything comes down... I'm back in the market, he finishes

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Tom Cloud's Annual Precious Metals Market Update (January 14, 2018)

Tom Cloud reviewed his calls on for the precious metals market last year and what he sees taking place in 2018.  Tom discusses their price targets and the overall precious metals market.  For example, Tom’s forecast for gold to go up 10% in 2017 actually turned out to be 13.5%.  This was due to what he saw as the falling U.S. Dollar Index.

According to Tom, the gold price in the past tends to go up about 8% for every 1% decline in the value of the Dollar.  The U.S. Dollar fell 3% in 2017, so that suggested a 24% increase in the value of gold.  However, the gold price only went up 13.5% last year.  So, Tom sees the gold price catching up this year and believes it will increase another 10-15%.

https://www.marketslant.com/article/tom-clouds-annual-precious-metals-market-update-2018

 

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Wipe-out: Crypto-killer-crash

HUGE DROPS in prices !

sLSvK1Q.png

Down -25% to -43% in just 24 hours

 

 

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Tether : Odd Man - Not OUT

on the day of the crypto-killer-crash, Tether rose 3% to $1.04

Add more value to your business

Start reaping the rewards of stable currency on the Blockchain

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Bitcoin tumbles to 6-week low on fears of regulatory noose tightening MarketWatch

Bitcoin bloodbath highlights these defensive cryptocurrency strategies MarketWatch

=== ===

Bitcoin’s spot price was slumping on Tuesday, touching a six-week low below $11,000, as the biggest cryptocurrencies came under pressure across the board.

The selloff follows reports that South Korean Finance Minister Kim Dong-yeon said banning trading in virtual currencies was “a live option.” That has added to ongoing worries about a potential crackdown in what’s considered the world’s third-largest crypto trading market.

The tumble also comes after a Bloomberg report on Monday that said China is escalating its clampdown on crypto trading. In addition, crypto exchange Kraken was down for longer than expected to upgrade its trading platform. Kraken apologized on Saturday “for the uncertainty our downtime has caused,” saying it was now back on line.

The bitcoin spot price BTCUSD, +3.03% touched a low of more than 26% to $10,064, according to CoinDesk data late Tuesday.

The top 10 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization were all showing sizable drops, according to CoinMarketCap.com data. No. 2 virtual currency Ethereum was down 27%, Ripple slumped 40% and bitcoin cash shed 30%.

“Bitcoin dived below $12,000 today as it appears the regulatory noose is tightening,” said Neil Wilson, senior market analyst at ETX Capital, in a note.

“Bitcoin faces a regulatory crunch sooner or later and increasingly we see signs of this starting to bite following South Korea’s tentative plans to ban trading on cryptocurrencies and China’s move to shutter mines,” Wilson added. “Meanwhile, there may be growing consensus among European regulators to act in concert.”

. . .

The price of a single bitcoin was tumbled on Tuesday, off 15% at around $11,539 after dropping as low as $11,039.40, underlining a broad selloff among the world’s virtual currencies spurred by nagging fears of increased regulatory scrutiny in South Korea and elsewhere. That leaves the total value of cryptos tracked by CoinMarketCap.com at roughly $565.7 billion, down more than 30% from a peak reached last week.

MW-GB757_chart__20180116083901_NS.jpg?uuSource: CoinMarketCap.com
To be sure, there are still serious and legitimate doubts about the viability of such volatile, decentralized assets like bitcoin BTCUSD, +2.38% that have been described as in the midst of a speculative bubble that is likely to end in tears.

Read: Bitcoin is ‘a bubble that is bound to burst,’ analysts warn

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REVISED: Gran Columbia / GCM.t thread Header

- brought OP / header of the thread Up to Date - since price leap upwards is possible in 2018

C$ price --- : C$2.22 / 16% of BV, 52% of adj. BV

Book Value : US $11.21 xC$1.245= C$13.96

Adj. Bk.Val : US $  3.43  xC$1.245= C$  4.27 - assumes all US$141M Debt conv. at US$1.92 x 1.245= C$ 2.39

Gran Columbia (GCM.t) : restructured Columbian Gold miner, in Profit waiting to be discovered

(GCM shs: a Reverse Split of 1-share-for-15 on Apr. 27th, 2017):

GCM.t ... 10-yrs : 5-yrs : 2-yrs : 12mos : 6-mos / 10-d / U-1%: V-6% : X-8% :

Updated, Last: C$2.22 at 1/16/2018 - peaked on 610d.MA

j66wbce.gif

AFTER Reverse split : 1-for-15 : Management awarded itself over 1.9 million Options at C$2.55 before the split

: 12-mos : 2-yrs : 3-yrs :

m0idmEE.gif

Longer term - after split prices 3-yrs : 4-yrs : 5-yrs :

Qjwc13Z.gif

GCM / Gran Columbia Mines - C$0.145 ( in Jan. 2016 )Share O/S : 23.7 mn x $0.145 = C$3.4 Million
Restructuring: = could mean the :  Issuance of a maximum of 1.44 Billion shares / 15 = 96 million shs after reverse split
===
About Gran Colombia Gold Corp.
Gran Colombia is a Canadian-based gold and silver exploration, development and production company with its primary focus in Colombia. Gran Colombia is currently the largest underground gold and silver producer in Colombia with several underground mines in operation at its Segovia and Marmato Operations. Gran Colombia is currently advancing a project to develop a modern, large-scale, gold and silver mine at its Segovia operations.

Date---- : GCM.t : 7,692 : CAD$ : NotVal : 1% Deb. : vol. : Db.O/S- Date : 6%Deb: Db.O/S- Date : TtlDebt : Shs-OS : MktValue : Ent.Val. : Gold : OZ's
03/31/16 : $0.095 : 0,731 : 0.769 : 56.94 : $58.00. --------- : $71.2- 03/31 : $68.00 : 104.0 - 03/31 : $175.2 : 125.5m : C$11.9M: $184.3M/ 1234= 149.4k
06/30/16 : $0.100 : 0,769 : 0.773 : 59.44 : $55.00. --------- : $67.7- 06/30 : $65.00 : 103.3 - 05/12 : $171.0 : 157.8m*: C$15.8M: $183.2M/ 1325= 138.3k
07/06/16 : $0.140 : 1,077 : 0.770 : 82.92 : $74.00, 164.k : $67.7- 06/30 : $78.50 : 103.3 - 05/12 : $171.0 : 157.8m*: C$22.1M: $188.0M/ 1366= 137.6k
08/31/16 : $0.115 : 0,885 : 0.763 : 67.53 : $72.00, 540.k : $53.7- 08/11 : $83.15 : 103.3 - 08/11 : $157.0 : 252.9m*: C$29.1M: $186.1M/ 1311= 141.9k
09/30/16 : $0.120 : 0,923 : 0.762 : 70.33 : $72.50, 154.k : $49.8- 09/06 : $91.00 : 102.5 - 09/06 : $152.3 : 277.6m*: C$33.3M: $177.7M/ 1317= 134.9k
10/21/16 : $0.115 : 0,885 : 0.750 : 66.34 : $68.00, 0???k : $49.8- 09/06 : $88.00 : 102.5 - 09/06 : $152.3 : 277.6m*: C$31.9M: $176.2M/ 1266= 139.2k
11/30/16 : $0.100 : 0,769 : 0.744 : 57.21 : $61.00, 90.0k : $49.7- 12/06 : $84.00 : 101.2 - 12/06 : $150.9 : 277.6m*: C$27.8M: $171.6M/ 1174= 146.2k
12/30/16 : $0.095 : 0,731 : 0.744 : 54.39 : $61.00, 20.0k : $49.7- 12/06 : $84.00 : 101.2 - 12/06 : $150.9 : 277.6m*: C$26.4M: $170.5M/ 1152= 148.1k
02/10/17 : $0.110 : 0,846 : 0.764 : 64.63 : $61.00, 625.k : $49.7- 12/06 : $81.00 : 101.2 - 12/06 : $150.9 : 277.7m*: C$30.5M: $174.2M/ 1236= 140.9k
03/31/17 : $0.100 : 0,769 : 0.750 : 57.68 : $64.00, 56.0k : $49.7- 12/06 : $82.99 : 100.7 - 04/07 : $150.4 : 277.7m*: C$27.8M: $171.3M/ 1251= 136.9k
04/21/17 : $0.095 : 0,731 : 0.742 : 54.24 : $65.00, 59.0k : $49.7- 12/06 : $81.99 : 100.7 - 04/07 : $150.4 : 277.7m*: C$26.4M: $170.0M/ 1289= 131.9k

04/26/17 : $0.095 : 0,731 : 0.733 : 53.82 : (reverse split) :
Date----- : GCM.t : 513sh: CAD$: NotVal: 1% Deb.: vol. : Db.O/S- Date : 6%Deb: Db.O/S- Date: TotDebt: Shs-OS : MktValue : EntValue : Gold : OZ's
04/27/17 : $1.550 : 0,795 : 0.733 : 58.28 : $61.00, 78.0k: $45.97-04/28 : $80.50 : 100.7 - 04/28 : $146.7 : 20.45m*: C$31.7M: $169.9M/ 1266= 134.2k
05/09/17 : $1.410 : 0,723 : 0.730 : 52.80 : $63.01, 78.0k: $45.97-04/28 : $81.00 : 100.5 - 05/02 : $146.5 : 20.45m*: C$28.8M: $167.5M/ 1216= 137.8k
08/22/17 : $1.370 : 0,703 : 0.796 : 55.94 : $70.00, 78.0K: $45.97-04/28: $87.00 : 100.5 - 05/02 : $146.5 : 20.45m*: C$28.0M: $168.8M/ 1286= 131.3K
09/25/17 : c$2.20 : 1,129 : 0.808 : 91.19 : $89.50, 36.0K: $45.97-04/28: $92.00 : $99.4 - 06/30 : $145.4 : 20.45m*: C$45.0M: $181.8M/ 1312= 138.5k oz
10/12/17 : c$1.86 : 954.2 : 0.802 : 76.53 : $81.00, 20.0K: $45.97-06/30: $95.02 : $99.4 - 06/30 : $145.4 : 20.45m*: C$38.0M: $175.9M/ 1297= 135.6k oz
10/20/17 : c$1.84 : 943.9 : 0.792 : 74.76 : $78.00, 10.0K: $45.97-06/30: $95.02 : $99.4 - 06/30 : $145.4 : 20.45m*: C$37.6M: $175.2M/ 1281= 136.8k oz
12/29/17 : c$1.96 : 1,005 : 0.795 : 79.90 : $85.50, 50.0K: $45.97-09/30: $98.00 : $95.7 - 09/30 : $141.1 : 20.45m*: C$40.1M: $172.0M/ 1309= 132.1k oz
01/16/18 : c$2.22 : 1,139 : 0.803 : 91.45 : $90.75, 109.K: $45.97-09/30: $98.00 : $95.7 - 09/30 : $141.1 : 20.45m*: C$45.4M: $177.6M/ 1337= 132.8k oz.
=========
Last column : at 132.8k on 12/29/2017 - GCM had an enterprize value of 132,800 oz., that is is just 80% of its 2017 gold production (ignores costs)


12/29: At 8/2018 maturity, 1% Debs= ($190 + 415.5 shs) so: $190 + 415.5sh x $2.22 x 0.803= $741 : $931,

debs - 9/30/17 = Face Amt : discount : (maturity-)
1% : : $30,674K : $45,970K : $15,296k (2018, Aug.)
6% : : $33,396K : $48,696K : $15,300k (2020. Jan.)
8% : : $28,858K : $46,955K : $17,548k (2024)
DEBs: $92.93K : $141.07K: $48,144k/ BKV: $229.32k / shs OS: 20,450k = US$11.21 /sh. ($10.76-6/30)
Disc. : $ 48.14 K / 20.45k = ($2.35) + $11.21 = US$8.86 / sh. ($8.08-6/30)
Alt.2: $229.32 +$92.93k= $322.25k / (20.45k + $141.07/$1.92= 73.47k= 93.92k) = US$3.43 xC$1.245= C$4.27
====

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Bitcoins still engaged in Test of $10,000 ... update

7eoZtuu.png

I would like to see it back above $11,500 and headed higher

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Kitco

The Fuel is There For Higher Gold Prices - Expert Kitco News

Selling pressure in gold picked up late in Wednesday’s trading session as the U.S. dollar found some new momentum and equities see its best day in more than a month.

Within a 30-minute period, more than 2 million ounces were sold, pushing Comex gold futures prices to session lows. However, the market continues to hold critical support levels, according to some analysts.

February Gold last traded at $1,328.80 an ounce, down 0.61% on the day. At the same time, the U.S. Dollar Index has moved moderately higher off its three-year lows, last trading at 90.65, up 0.26% on the day.

Equity markets, which have seen consistent gains throughout the session, ending the day at new record highs. The S&P 500 Index settled the day up 26 points to 2,802, up almost 1% on the day.

Gold’s drop does not come as a major surprise to some analysts, who have been expecting to see some consolidation after the yellow metal hit a four-month high at the start of the week.

Phillip Streible, senior market strategist at RJO Futures, said that gold’s technical outlook remains bullish as long as prices hold near-term support at $1,320 an ounce, which represents a critical psychological level.

Along with a stronger U.S. dollar, Streible added that bitcoin could be taking some luster away from gold. While bitcoin has fallen sharply from record highs only one month ago, he noted that the market has held an important retracement level.

Bitcoin is down almost 45% from its record highs seen in mid-December; but, the digital currency has bounced off its lows and has pushed back above $10,000. Kitco.com aggregated charts show bitcoin last traded around $10,800 per token.

“Bitcoin has held the important 50% retracement level so some investors might be selling their gold and buying bitcoin as they see value at these levels,” he said.

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Commodities Ready for Mean Reversion?

Last month I shared with you a chart, courtesy of DoubleLine, that makes the case we could be entering an attractive entry point for commodities, based on previous booms and busts. The S&P GSCI Total Return Index-to-S&P 500 Index ratio is now at its lowest point since the dotcom bubble, meaning commodities and mining companies are highly undervalued relative to large-cap stocks. We could see mean reversion begin to happen as soon as this year, triggering a commodities super-cycle the likes of which we haven’t seen since the 2000s.

the new periodic table of commodity returns 2017

Gundlach has more to say on this subject. During his annual “Just Markets” webcast, he told investors that “commodities will outperform in 2018” because they “always rally sharply—much more sharply than they have so far—late in the business cycle as we head into a recession.

> https://www.marketslant.com/article/recipe-calls-broad-commodities-rally-2018

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#RELEASE THE DOCUMENTS

End the Mueller witchhunt, and go after the REAL witch !

Bombshell Doc Will End Mueller Probe, 1984

"How absolutely ridiculous is the Mueller probe.  It should be ended immediately."

A number of high-level FBI and DOJ people should be arrested

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Gold & some shares - at the Top of a Trading Range

Ratio: GLD -to- TLT (Bonds)

zCEDy4h.png

Needs to break out above the Range, if the Gold rally is going to continue, probably.

Because Gold is unlikely to get much help from the Bond market now

GCM.t / Gran Columbian Gold ... update

wiwd3pw.gif

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Bitcoin Cycle flipped at the 2017 and 2018 Peaks ($19,675 and $17,220)

BTC (01-jan to 20-jan) ... update : 25d :

xSKygQ9.png

From 12-01-2017 to 01-20-2018 ... update : Peaks: $19,675 (12-17) and $17,220 (01-06)

XQMAwl6.png

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HK:869
Playmates Toys Ltd.

UOf1lFP.gif

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WEEKLY Price Changes / DBA & Grains are still cheap

==== : Fye'16 : Fye'17 : +-%chg :  01/05 :  01/12 :  01/19 :
Gold : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1322.3 : 1334.5 : 1333.1 :
GLD- : 109.61 : 123.65 : +12.8% : 125.33 : 126.96 : 126.42 :
SPY- : 223.53 : 266.86 : +19.4% : 273.42 : 277.92 : 280.41 :
SPX- : 2238.8 : 2673.6 : +19.4% : 2743.2 : 2786.2 : 2810.3 :
Sp/Au 194.4%: 204.2%: ====== : 207.5%: 208.5%: 210.8% :
Silvr : 16.580 : 17.150 : +3.44% :  17.285 : 17.140 : 17.040 :
SLV- : $15.64 : $15.98 : +2.08% : $16.22 : $16.27 : $16.05 :
XLE : $75.32 : $72.24 : -4.09%: $74.97 : $77.42 : $76.38 :
WTIc: $53.72 : $60.42 : +12.4% : $61.44 : $64.30 : $63.31 :
Au/Wt:  r-21.4 :  r-21.7 : ====== :  r21.52 : r20.75 : r-21.06 :
Ngas: $3.350 : $2.950 : - 11.9% : $2.795 : $3.200 : $3.180 :
Cop'r: $2.510 : $3.305 : +31.7% : $3.230 : $3.220 : $3.190 :
CRB- : 192.51 : 193.86 : +0.07% : 193.45 : 196.06 : 195.50 :
Corn : 352.00 : 350.75 : - 0.36% : 351.25 : 346.25 : 352.50 :
Weat : 408.00 : 426.25 : +4.47% : 430.75 : 420.50 : 422.75 :
DBA : $19.97 : $18.76 : -6.06%: $18.83 : $18.56: $18.63 :
D/crb: 10.37% :  9.67% : ====== : 9.73%  :  9.47%  :  9.53% :
D/xle : 0.2651 : 0.2596 : ====== : 0.2511 : 0.2397: 0.2439 :
DXY- : 102.38 : $92.30 : - 9.85% : $92.01 : $90.90 : $90.37 :

====
Gold : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1322.3 : 1334.5 : 1333.1 :
Au/hd: r1.401 : r1.58E : ====== : r1.584 : r-1.610 : r1.575 :
Hold : 822.17 : 830.00 : +01.0% : 834.86 : 828.96 : 846.67 :
GDX- : $20.92 : $23.24 : +11.1% : $23.67: $24.01 : $23.65 :
WPM: $19.32 : $22.27 : +15.3% : $21.95 : $21.90 : $22.20 :
Gdxj : $31.55 : $34.13 : +8.18% : $34.48 : $34.94 : $34.40 :
PHM: $18.38 : $33.34 : +81.4% : $34.54 : $34.48 : $34.60 :
EEM- : $35.01 : $47.30 : +35.1% : $49.13 : $49.51 : $50.44 :
ShCm: 3103.7 : 3307.2 : +6.56% : 3391.8 : 3428.9 : 3487.8 :
IWM- : 134.85 : 152.43 : +13.0% : 154.75 : 158.16 : 158.60 :
XLF-  : $23.25 : $27.19 : +16.9% : $28.41 : $29.23 : $29.54 :
F/iwm 0.1724 : 0.1784 : ====== : 0.1836 : 0.1848 : 0.1862 :
BTC-- : $948.5 : 13,100 : x13.8X : 15,840 : 13,622 : 11,500 :
=====

METALS to ENERGY

Copper/Natgas

yUQVtwY.png

Gold / WTI Crude

Zh4ZMp9.png

Metal-to-Food : Gold / DBA (Grains etf)

3se9n61.png

WTI Crude / DBA

6vpcz73.png

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Malaysian Ringgit / MYR-inUSD ... update

8UCi4Za.gif

USD in... MYR vs. THB - from 1/1/2016

RE1JhyD.gif

==

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Bitcoin Price Index

Peaks per Bitstamp: Peaks: $19,675 (12-17) and $17,220 (01-06)

0CY7beM.png

$NYXBT    NYSE Bitcoin Index (EOD)    INDX            May 18, 2015

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I found this interview fascinating...

Not only for its insights into Crypto-currencies, but also for the viewpoint on the present political situation

"I have become a reinvigorated patriot"

Bitcoin Blockchain and a QAnon Coup - Greg Reese

"How are we going to change things to make sure this does not happen again?"

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BTX - still in a Downtrend ... update

housGO7.png

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