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Bitcoin Futures : & Cycles

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Bitcoin Futures : where, what & how they work

bitcoin-futures-459x293.jpg

- The Cboe Bitcoin Futures Contract uses the ticker XBT and will equal one bitcoin.
- The CME Bitcoin Futures Contract will use the ticker BTC and will equal five bitcoins.
- Cash Settled in USD : Both Cboe’s and CME’s bitcoin futures contracts will be settled in U.S. dollars, allowing exposure to the bitcoin without actually having to hold any of the cryptocurrency.
- Different Settlement mechanism:

-Cboe’s contract is priced off of a single auction at 4 p.m. Eastern time (2100 GMT) on the final settlement date on the Gemini cryptocurrency exchange.

-CME’s contract will be priced off of the CME Bitcoin Reference Rate, an index that references pricing data from cryptocurrency exchanges, currently made up of Bitstamp, GDAX, itBit and Kraken.

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Hmm.
Both contracts seem open to manipulation, and especially the CBOE with a settlement based off a single exchange .
Another point is that they are likely to settle at different prices, maybe very different prices depending on the quirks of the exchanges
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(In Edit)
DATA suggests a Two Months Cycle in Bitcoins Prices

A Two-month Cycle in BTC?

Old ... 12mo / all data: 8yr: // Serenity Exch :

6bOIuMw.png

Update-5mo : 2-mo : 1-mo : 25 10 5d 2d : (below was updated to early 1/14/2018):

R0QOuE5.png

==

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CHARTS - has a peak been seen already at $18,500+?

So soon after trading started? (it is not impossible. Need time to assess.)

631fd

> #1: source: https://www.investing.com/currencies/cboe-bitcoin-futures-streaming-chart

Longer Term - since trading began Monday

631gh

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TESTING

Trying a New high now:

Bitcoin Futures 18,430 +1650 +9.83%

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So tells me, my London-based friend (DF) who helped intro me to Bitcoins,

several years ago:

"It has been the greatest money-making opportunity of our lifetime

Roger Ver has turned a $25k investment in 2011 into $425m. He totally indoctrinated himself that bitcoin is the future and that enabled him to hold ..."

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BTS ... Latest - 10d :$14,254 - a rally to $15700-16000 looks possible still

0grt0NZ.png

 

Will futures produce a two-sided market?

The Winklevoss twins talk Bitcoin futures and fears

==

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how to value - two views

2013

The Winklevosses: Bitcoin worth 100 times more

2015

Winklevoss Twins: Bitcoin Could Go Beyond One Trillion Market Cap + Gemini.com Announcement

At that stage they acknowledged "we own 1% of Bitcoins... we are in this for the long term"

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Bitcoin and Fear...

Heed Warren Buffett’s warning: bitcoin is pure FOMO

To the surprise of nobody, billionaire investor Warren Buffett isn’t interested in bitcoin, the electronic currency that has zoomed higher in value over the past few weeks.

Bitcoin BTCUSD, -4.38% BTCF8, -2.95%  is a complex idea. Simply put, it’s a virtual currency that is created, owned and traded entirely online in anonymous and unregulated settings. In theory, there is a limited number of these physically non-existent digital “coins,” though that limit hasn’t yet been reached. A few years ago, bitcoins were almost worthless; earlier in December, bitcoin’s valued briefly topped $19,000.

Buffett is having none of it. "You can't value bitcoin, because it's not a value-producing asset," he said recently. Earlier, in 2014, when bitcoin was worth much, much less, Buffett said, "Stay away from it. It's a mirage, basically,” adding, “The idea that it has some huge intrinsic value is just a joke, in my view."

So what drives the value of an essentially value-free asset? FOMO — fear of missing out.

The real danger

 

Who buys a home expecting it to double in value in a year? Who buys an unproven web startup certain that it will disrupt an entire industry in short order?

Think back to the housing bubble and, before that, the dot-com stock bubble. There was a time, early on, when these investments were nearly worthless.

Yet investors pounced on dot-coms and fixer-uppers. They feared missing out on a chance to get rich quickly.

As with dot-coms and real estate, the fuel driving the bitcoin fire is the continual entry of new investors, more and more people motivated by FOMO, fear of missing out. (Remember Beanie Babies? Exactly...)

==

> https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heed-warren-buffetts-warning-bitcoin-is-pure-fomo-2017-12-26?mod=MW_story_top_stories

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Bitcoin and Fear...

Heed Warren Buffett’s warning: bitcoin is pure FOMO

To the surprise of nobody, billionaire investor Warren Buffett isn’t interested in bitcoin, the electronic currency that has zoomed higher in value over the past few weeks.

Bitcoin BTCUSD, -4.38% BTCF8, -2.95%  is a complex idea. Simply put, it’s a virtual currency that is created, owned and traded entirely online in anonymous and unregulated settings. In theory, there is a limited number of these physically non-existent digital “coins,” though that limit hasn’t yet been reached. A few years ago, bitcoins were almost worthless; earlier in December, bitcoin’s valued briefly topped $19,000.

Buffett is having none of it. "You can't value bitcoin, because it's not a value-producing asset," he said recently. Earlier, in 2014, when bitcoin was worth much, much less, Buffett said, "Stay away from it. It's a mirage, basically,” adding, “The idea that it has some huge intrinsic value is just a joke, in my view."

So what drives the value of an essentially value-free asset? FOMO — fear of missing out.

The real danger

 

Who buys a home expecting it to double in value in a year? Who buys an unproven web startup certain that it will disrupt an entire industry in short order?

Think back to the housing bubble and, before that, the dot-com stock bubble. There was a time, early on, when these investments were nearly worthless.

Yet investors pounced on dot-coms and fixer-uppers. They feared missing out on a chance to get rich quickly.

As with dot-coms and real estate, the fuel driving the bitcoin fire is the continual entry of new investors, more and more people motivated by FOMO, fear of missing out. (Remember Beanie Babies? Exactly...)

==

> https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heed-warren-buffetts-warning-bitcoin-is-pure-fomo-2017-12-26?mod=MW_story_top_stories

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Bitcoin cycle of just under 1 day (22 hours?) ... update

59Eja6Y.png

xx Days - showing the <1 d Cycle ... update

Hs7irHc.png

==

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Dimon’s many bitcoin moments of regret, in one chart

MW-GB430_bitcoi_20180109142331_ZH.jpg?uuBitcoin doesn’t regret Dimon

Jamie Dimon appears to have one major resolution to kick off 2018: refrain from bashing bitcoin.

The JPMorgan Chase & Co. JPM, -0.36% boss on Tuesday told Fox Business Network’s Maria Bartiromo that “bitcoin is real”, a rare admission for one of the growing assets staunchest detractors.

The well-respected bank boss goes one step further, saying that he harbors “regret” about classifying the nascent digital currency a “fraud.” Bitcoin has skyrocketed in value over the past several months, rising more than 1,300% in 2017 alone, and hitting a top near $20,000 last December, before falling back in recent trade, according to research and data site CoinDesk.com.

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Bitcoin Cycle flipped at the 2017 and 2018 Peaks ($19,675 and $17,220)

BTC (01-jan to 20-jan) ... update : 25d :

xSKygQ9.png

From 12-01-2017 to 01-20-2018 ... update : Peaks: $19,675 (12-17) and $17,220 (01-06)

XQMAwl6.png

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Bitcoin Price Index

Peaks per Bitstamp: Peaks: $19,675 (12-17) and $17,220 (01-06)

0CY7beM.png

$NYXBT    NYSE Bitcoin Index (EOD)    INDX            May 18, 2015

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The Biggest Bubble in human history?

Goldman issues a warning on bitcoin—and an even bigger warning on Ethereum

Goldman quotes historian on ‘tulip bubble’: ‘Our descendants doubtless will laugh at the human insanity of our Age’

MW-GC195_gsbitc_20180122120730_ZH.jpg?uuGetty 

by RyanVlastelica, Markets reporter

The chorus of bitcoin bears is growing louder by the day.

The latest to issue a stern warning against the world’s largest digital currency is Goldman Sachs’s investment management division, which wrote that there is “no doubt” that the cryptocurrency’s astronomical rise over the past year “has pushed it into bubble territory.”

The firm added that bitcoin’s “meteoric rise in a short time has dwarfed the rise seen during the dot-com bubble.” They added: “We also believe that cryptocurrencies have moved beyond bubble levels in financial markets, and even beyond the levels seen during the Dutch ‘tulipmania’ between 1634 and early 1637.”

MW-GC180_GSbtc1_20180122102702_NS.jpg?uuCourtesy Goldman Sachs
 

Bitcoin BTCUSD, -0.31%  last traded at $10,900.77, up 1.2% on the day. The digital currency, maintaining one of its most notorious qualities, has been incredibly volatile in 2018, seeing massive swings on a near daily basis. Over the past year, bitcoin has risen by a factor of more than 10, although it has also dropped significantly. After closing 2016 under $1,000, it subsequently soared throughout most of last year, peaking near $20,000 in December before turning sharply lower.

The volatility of the market, along with a lack of regulation, was cited by the Securities and Exchange Commission as reasons why it was unlikely to approve an exchange-traded fund related to bitcoin soon.

. . .

The following chart, derived from FactSet data, shows the spikes that are seen after such announcements—as well as the heavy downside volatility that has tended to subsequently occur. The securities in the chart include: Hive Blockchain Technologies Ltd. HIVE, -12.16% Riot Blockchain Inc. RIOT, +0.81% Blockchain Worldwide PLC BLOC, -8.33% Long Blockchain Corp. LBCC, -1.61% UBI BlockChain Internet Ltd. UBIA, -20.00% and the Bitcoin Investment Trust GBTC, -16.29%

MW-GC189_blockc_20180122113702_NS.jpg?uuCourtesy FactSet
 

Such stock moves, Goldman wrote, recalled a quote by the Dutch historian Theodorus Schrevelius. After the tulip bubble burst, Schrevelius wrote that “our descendants doubtless will laugh at the human insanity of our Age, that in our times, the tulip flowers have been so revered.”

Related: Bitcoin could fall off cliff, drop 90%, one Wall Street strategist warns

> More:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-bitcoin-bubble-now-dwarfs-tulips-and-dot-com-stocks-goldman-warns-2018-01-22?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts

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