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drbubb

DrBubb's Diary - Sep. 2017 Trading - v.104

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KITCO

 

Gold To Remain Under Pressure As Metal ‘Gives Way’ To ...Kitco NewsSep 22

=== ===
After taking a hit and plunging below $1,300 an ounce this week, gold is looking to remain under pressure, as the more aggressive U.S. Federal Reserve holds the yellow metal back, according to analysts.

Prices are likely to “gravitate lower,” Bart Melek, head of global strategy at TD Securities told Kitco News. “Looking at mid-$1,280 on the downside and strong resistance right around $1,315.”

The precious metal gave way to a more hawkish Fed this week, said Christopher Louney, commodity strategist at RBC Capital Markets, who was expecting to see a downturn in gold ever since it rallied up to $1,350.

“The Fed said it remains on track for another rate hike before year-end. What we are looking for is some stability in gold now,” Louney said.

On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee kept its key interest rate unchanged, while announcing that it still plans to raise rates at least one more time this year. The central bank also said it will begin shrinking its $4.5-trillion balance sheet in October.

On Friday, gold managed to recover somewhat from its post-FOMC drop, rising on additional safe-haven demand triggered by new North Korea threats of testing a hydrogen bomb over the Pacific Ocean. The country’s leader Kim Jong-Un also referred to President Donald Trump as a “mentally deranged U.S. dotard.” December Comex gold was last seen trading at $1,299.60, up 0.37% on the day.

North Korea merits attention next week, said Louney. “Increases in geopolitical risks could lead to spikes in gold prices. But, macro forecast points to gold being below $1,300.”

Louney pointed out that gold has been “shrugging off a lot of geopolitical worries” lately, as increased risks are now the “new normal.”

“The bar that you have to clear to get large spikes is pretty heavy. In the context of geopolitical uncertainty, you need a pretty significant event to get a sustained tick higher in gold prices,” he said.

However, some analysts see North Korea playing a bigger role next week, which could push prices higher.

. . .

A definitive voice in the precious metals industry says it may soon be gold’s time to shine. ‘I’ve never tried to suggest what its price should be but given we’ve expanded money supplies to such vast amounts it suggests gold should be up at least in the $2,000 range,’ Don Coxe, veteran investor and the head of his own investment firm, told Kitco News at the Precious Metals Summit in Beaver Creek, CO. ‘Gold is a speculator’s dream because there’s so many ways that you can play it.’ Also the keynote speaker at the event, Coxe said his message to investors is simple: look to junior miners for opportunities. ‘I believe in the junior mining space,’ he said.

' ' '

Speculators' net short bets on the U.S. dollar grew to the largest since January 2013 in the latest week, according to calculations by Reuters and Commodity Futures Trading Commission data released on Friday.

The value of the dollar's net short position, derived from net positions of International Monetary Market speculators in the yen, euro, British pound, Swiss franc and Canadian and Australian dollars, was $13.19 billion, in the week to September 19.

That compares with a net short position of $11.57 billion the previous week and marks the fifth straight week of increases in the bearish position.

Meanwhile, the net short position in sterling shrank to 10,161 contracts, the least since November 2015.

 

 

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C60 Sells Out Everywhere After Clif High Show - Learn Why

Tom Martin, Founder and CEO of C60OliveOil.com, joins the program to discuss the amazing benefits of C60. Hear why the entire industry sold out of the product after my interview with Clif High! You will learn that C60 has the potential to extend live. Hear about the amazing results and studies going on all over the world.

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Merkel Hangs on to Power But Bleeds Support to Surging Far Right

Reuters05:30PM

Weakened Merkel wins fourth term, hit by nationalist 'earthquake'...

Hard-right marches into parliament...

... ...

Chancellor Angela Merkel won a fourth term in office on Sunday but will have to build an uneasy coalition to form a German government after her conservatives haemorrhaged support in the face of a surge by the far-right.

The anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD) stunned the establishment by winning 13.1 percent of the vote, projected results showed, a result that will bring a far-right party into parliament for the first time in more than half a century.

Merkel’s conservative bloc emerged as the largest parliamentary party but, with just 33.2 percent of the vote, saw its support slump to the lowest since 1949 - the first time national elections were held in post-war Germany.

Her main Social Democrat rivals also received their worst result since the 1940s -- just 20.8 percent -- after nearly half of voters repudiated the two parties that have dominated Germany since World War Two.

. . .

In a bombshell for the German establishment, the anti-Islam, anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD) captured around 13 percent, catapulting it to become the country's third biggest political force.

Commentators called the AfD's strong performance a "watershed moment" in the history of the German republic. The top-selling Bild daily spoke of a "political earthquake".

AfD supporters gathered at a Berlin club, cheering as public television reported the outcome, many joining in a chorus of the German national anthem.

Hundreds of protesters rallied outside, shouting "Nazis out!" while smaller AfD demonstrations were held in other cities across the country.

The four-year-old nationalist party with links to the far-right French National Front and Britain's UKIP has been shunned by Germany's mainstream but was able to build on particularly strong support in ex-communist eastern Germany.

It is now headed for the opposition benches of the Bundestag lower house, dramatically boosting its visibility and state financing.

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NO! to PC Sports Fiends


 

TRUMP CALLS FOR BOYCOTT...
Feud With Athletes Escalates...
Has 'nothing to do with race'...
President's criticisms spark more protests at NFL games...
Goodell Hits Back...
BOB KRAFT 'DEEPLY DISAPPOINTED'...
Brady locks arm...
200 players take knee...
League to air unity ad in prime time...
NASCAR owners side with Trump...
NHL: Penguins plan to visit White House...
WSJ: The Politicization of Everything...

 

President Donald Trump on Sunday urged fans to boycott National Football League games to pressure it to fire or suspend players who kneel in protest during the national anthem, intensifying a battle over politics, social justice and race in America's most popular sport.

But in the first NFL game since Trump touched off the spat Friday with an expletive-laden speech to supporters in Alabama, at least a dozen players on the Baltimore Ravens and Jacksonsville Jaguars, playing in London, took a knee Sunday during the playing of "The Star-Spangled banner."

 

 

Hurray for Nascar - the only patriots?

 

The rest of professional sports is a PC nightmare, and to be avoided.

Boycott the advertisers for all of these spoiled brat sports

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Does anyone really the BBC (Boy-Buggering Communists) deserve government funding?

 

Milo Clubs The BBC to Death ... Again

 

Fire them all.

Start over.

Get a true diversity of political views on British TV

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I AGREE with this comment:

"Are people who play Victim Cards inferior? I think so!

Whatever their race or religion. I do not see blacks who REFUSE to play victim cards as inferior. Nor Latinos. Nor women. But playing victim cards is a way of identifying people who do not believe in basic fairness and making it on their own abilities and character."

 

Posted under this video:

Tucker Carlson Tonight 9/26/17 - Tucker Carlson Fox News September 26, 2017 TRUMP-NFL PROTEST

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ETqnAJF6deg

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If Tony C's count is right, the end may be near - 2525??

(maybe but more 5th waves to come after that maybe)

 

SPX ... 6mos : update

Lrt6qOj.gif

 

The market gapped up at the open today for the first time in over two weeks. The last gap up opening eventually led to new highs at SPX 2509. This gap up opening made new highs the same day at SPX 2512. With today’s activity we can now count three nearly completed waves up from the Micro 2 SPX 2417 low: 2455-2428-2512. Refer to yesterday’s update for the subdivisions of wave 3.

 

When this rally does conclude we would look for about another 20 point pullback for wave 4, then a rally to the 2525 pivot range for wave 5. Short term support is at the 2479 and 2456 pivots, with resistance at the 2525 pivot. Short term momentum ended just below overbought. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

==

> https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2017/09/27/wednesday-update-614/

 

Comments:

Bud Fox says:

Hello…..my longer term charts, of the SP500
are suggesting a very major top is forming rather
quickly. Maybe, Tony can shed some light on that
thought. Or, he already has. Do need to read his
work more often.
Here is a link I ref http://www.macrotrends.net/2324/sp-500-historical-chart-data

 

2.

Xy Z says:

What should we expect after wave 5 completes?

tryingtomakeabuck says:

Micro 4 down
Micro 5 up
Minute 4 down
Minute 5 up approx 2650
Int 4 down
Int 5 up

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"THE MOVEMENT is bigger than Trump"

 

Mike Cernovich: Roy Moore wins! What this means for GOP and Trump?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KNaZXl-syoE

"We don't care about the dumb tax cuts... Get the Wall built!"

 

Ben Shapiro: Roy Moore wins Senate Republican primary race against Luther Strange in Alabama

 

"Roy Moore was better known than his opponent"

"He pulls out a gun, and everyone goes crazy... If you live in 'Bama & don't own a gun, you're weirdo"

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Baltimore versus Philadelphia comparisons

Statistic--- : Philadelphia : Baltimore :
=========
No. in USA-- : --Number 6-- : Number 29-:
Peak Popul...: 2,072,000--- : 949,700-- : (1950)
Population--- : 1,526,000--- : 620,560-- : (2010)
----------------- : 1,556,000--- : 622,000-- : (2017)
Pop. Growth- : --------------- : flat, or modest
Black/White-- : 43.4/41.0% : 63.7/29.6% :
Employment- : 0,587,191-- : 0,000,000 : Dec 2007
Employment- : 0,663,295-- : 0,371,100 : May 2017
Job Growth-- : + 13.0 % :
Students
U.Penn (PH) - : 24,800 (10,400 are undergraduates)
Drexel (PH) -- : 25,600 (15,500 undergrads)
Temple (PH) - : 39,600 (29,300 undergrads)
3Schools (PH): 90,000 (65,200)
JohnsHopkins : -------------- : 24,000 ( 7,100 undergrads)

Ave.HH Inc.- : $ 34,207---- : $ 38,731---- :
Med.HomeVal.: $145,300---- : $152,400---- :
X HH income : 4.25 ---- : 3.94 ---- :
Median Rent- : $ 922/ month : $ 951/ month :
X HH income : 32.3%---- : 29.5% ---- :
==
Housing Units: 670,229 units : 267,727 units :
Vacancy Rate : 13.3% -------- : 18.4% -------- :
OCCUPIED : 581,089 units : 218,465 units :
%-Population : 37.3% -------- : 35.1% -------- :

Ave. per Unit : 2.68 people-- : 2.85 people-- : Why?

===

Perhaps the lower density of people per household is because there are more

Students in Philadelphia, with many students living alone ??

Adjusted data below tend to support this hypothesis

 

Population--- : 1,556,000--- : 622,000-- : (2017)
Less students: 90,000--- : : 24,000-- :
Pop., adjusted 1,466,000--- : 598,000-- :
OCCUPIED : 581,089 units : 218,465 units :
Less students: 90,000--- : : 24,000-- :
Occupied,adj 491,089 units : 194,465 units :
Per Unit,adj 2.99 people-- : 3.08 people-- :

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Top of Page Charts: Gold / USD / china gold // Russell / Copper / china silver

t24_au_en_usoz_6.gif : 24hr-euro-small.gif : t24_au_en_euoz_2.gif : AuTD1.png?id=11409261605

idx24_russell_en_2.gif : t24_ag_en_usoz_2.gif:: idx24_hui_en_2.gif : AgTD0.png?id=11409221912

3d : ag : au

 

China/SGE: 4,200 RMB/kg / 6.150 = $ 683 / 35.274 = $19.36 (discount of about 20-25 cents?)

10/08-10am: Rmb3,846 /6.140 = $ 626.4 / 35.274 = $17.76 (prem. 57 cents)

10/13-9.am : Rmb3,884 /6.136 = $ 633.0 / 35.274 = $17.94 -$17.39= prm-$0.55

Goldstock : HK-2840 : GBS.L : GLD : GDX : NUGT : tza/faz -- HKpeg : DXY : StkX : 10-d : SPX : sjw : img :

HK 3081: 2899: 1051: hs / UK: POG / ABX : Sil : IAG : dba-etc. ... lot : PB : CVN : CC2 : BTC : SLV-lv

===============================================

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NIGHTMARE of Angry Immigrants

 

Do we really want more people like Eve M. in America??

 

Tucker Carlson Tonight 9/29/17 - Tucker Carlson Fox News September 29, 2017 NFL VS TRUMP, TOM PRICE

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RpDCZXASz0A

 

Anyone who disagrees with her is a genocidal racist, right?

Why stay, Eve. If it is so bad, please go back to where you and your forebearers came from !

We need to standup for free speech and traditional values, or monsters like Eve will ruin the country

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THE LEFT, "they're coming for everything that gives you Joy and Satisfaction"

 

 

Trump's words worked...

 

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Star Trek Discovery:

 

The writers are obsessed with Racism & identity politics - Is it still watchable??

 

Star Trek: Discovery is Truly God Awful (Spoilers)

 

"The first officer is one dimensional... Joyless"

(just like H3llary Clinton.)

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Higher Yields / Huge drop due?

 

> https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/29/david-stockman-tax-reform-plan-is-pipe-dream-stocks-to-plunge-40-70-percent.html

 

104738776-5ED3-REQ-FN-STOCKMAN-WARNING-0

David Stockman is warning about the Trump administration's tax overhaul plan, Federal Reserve policy, saying they could play into a severe stock market sell-off.

Stockman, the Reagan administration's director of the Office of Management and Budget, isn't stepping away from his thesis that the 8½-year-old rally is in serious danger.

 

"There is a correction every seven to eight years, and they tend to be anywhere from 40 to 70 percent," Stockman said recently on CNBC's "Futures Now." "If you have to work for a living, get out of the casino because it's a dangerous place."

He's made similar calls, but they haven't materialized. In June, Stockman told CNBC the S&P 500 could easily fall to 1,600, which at the time represented a 34 percent drop. This week, the index was trading at record levels above 2,500.

Stockman puts a big portion of the blame on the Federal Reserve, and its ultra-loose monetary policy.

"This is a bubble created by the Fed," he said. "We're heading for higher yields. We are heading for a huge reset of pricing in the risk markets that's been based on ultra-cheap yields that the central banks of the world created that are now going to go away because they're telling you that they're done."

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DATA to Friday, 9/29 - Gold still sliding, despite Sprd Gold buying

/
Price: (YrE'15) (07/01): (YrE'16) (03/31): (06/30): (07/28) (08/04) : (08/11) (09/01) : (09/29)
Gold : 1060.5 : 1344.9 : 1151.7 / 1251.2 : 1242.3 : 1275.3 : 1264.6: 1294.0 : 1330.4 : 1284.8 :
GLD : 101.46 : 128.41 : 109.61 / 118.72 : 118.20 : 120.69 : 119.65 : 122.79 : 126.06 : 121.58 :
GDX : $13.72 : $29.05 : $20.95 / $22.81 : $22.08 : $22.91 : $22.32 : $23.15 : $24.78 : $22.96 :
Ratio: R7.395: R4.420 : R5.232 / R5.205 : r5.353 : R5.268 : r5.361 : r5.304 : R5.087 : r5.295 (/10.57)
Ratio 13.52%: 22.62%: 19.11% / 19.21% 18.68%: 18.98%: 18.65% 18.85%: 19.66%: 18.88% (GDx56.0)
Gdxj : $19.21 : $45.38 : $31.55 / $35.98 : $33.38 : $33.64 : $32.39 : $33.63 : $36.26 : $33.59 :
Spdr : 642.37: 953.91: 822.17 / 834.EE : 852.50 : 791.88 : 786.EE : 786.87 : 831.21 : 864.65 = 27.80M oz.
Au/S : R-1.65 : R-1.41 : r1.401 / R1.50E : R1.457 : r1.610 : r1.61E : R1.644 : r1.601 : r1.486 :
TLT : 120.58 : 140.57 : 119.13 / 120.71 : 125.12 : 123.89 : 124.93 : 126.43 : 126.75 : 124.76 :
G/Tlt : r8.795 : R9.567: R9.668/ R10.37 : r9.929 : R10.29 : r10.12 : R10.23 : r10.50 : r10.30 /vs L: 8.65
====
AGS : Y3,210 : y4,157 : y3,988 / y4,124 : Y3,??? : y3,000 : y3,000 : y3,000 : y3,000 : Y3,000 >16.68 :
SLV- : $13.19 : $18.74 : $15.11 / $17.25 : $15.71 : $15.81 : $15.38 : $16.17 : $16.73 : $15.74 :
WPM: $12.42 : $24.78 : $19.32 / $20.84 : $19.89 : $20.51 : $19.56 : $19.04 : $20.96 : $19.09 :
SIL*- : $18.51 : $45.95 : $32.11 / $36.02 : $33.95 : $34.57 : $32.73 : $33.83 : $35.14 : $32.99 :
DBA : $20.61 : $21.98 : $19.97 / $19.78 : $19.85 : $19.94 : $19.66 : $19.20 : $18.60 : $18.98 :
XLE- : $60.32 : $68.60 : $75.32 / $69.90 : $64.92 : $66.47 : $65.64 : $63.94 : $63.58 : $68.48 :
Cop'r: $2.135 : $2.220 : $2.510 / $2.652 : $2.710 : $2.910 : $2.880 : $2.910 : $3.120 : $2.950 :
WTI- : $37.07 : $49.28 : $53.72 / $50.30 : $46.04 : $49.75 : $49.58 : $48.82 : $47.29 : $51.67 :
CRB : 176.27 : 194.26 : 192.51 / 185.88 : 174.78 : 182.12 : 180.68 : 179.61 : 180.85 : 183.09 :
Corn : 358.00 : 360.25 : 352.00 / 364.40 : 381.00 : 374.25 : 366.50 : 360.75 : 355.25 : 355.25 :
Wheat 468.50 : 496.25 : 408.00/ 426.50 : 526.00 : 481.00 : 454.75 : 439.25 : 438.75 : 448.28 :
Sugar 15.24c : 20.78C : 19.51c / 16.76c : 13.81c : 14.37c : 14.14c : 13.20c : 13.75c : 14.10C :
BTC : $433.5 : $680.0 : $948.5 / 1041.1 : 2521.0 : 2770.0 : 2800.0 : 3610.0 : 4900.0 : 4188.0 :
B/G.: 40.88%: 50.56%: 82.36%/ 83.20%: 202.9% 217.2%: 221.% : 279.%: 368.% : 326.% :
N.A.V. : ---------------------------------------------------------------->: $3,800 : $3,300 : $3,610 : $3,698 :
Hedge: ---------------------------------------------------------------->: $4,000 : $0,300 : $3,750 : $2,550 :
====
EEM- : $32.19 : $34.69 : $35.01 / $39.39 : $41.39 : $43.75 : $43.95 : $42.92 : $45.16 : $44.81 :
FXI -- : $35.29 : $34.48 : $34.71 / $38.49 : $39.71 : $42.42 : $42.84 : $41.81 : $44.26 : $44.04 :
ShCm : 3519.2 : 2932.5 : 3103.6 / 3222.5 : 3192.4 : 3272.2: 3264.1 : 3208.5 : 3385.0 : 3348.9 :
PHM- : $17.82 : $19.48 : $18.38 / $23.55 : $24.53 : $24.35 : $25.60 : $24.84 : $25.87 : $27.33 :
IYR -- : $75.08 : $82.33 : $76.94/ $78.49 : $79.77 : $80.67 : $80.50 : $78.99 : $81.21 : $79.88 :
IWM - : 112.62 : 115.39 : 134.85 / 137.48 : 140.92 : 141.96 : 140.21 : 136.47 : 140.52 : 138.18 :
XLF - : $23.82 : $22.74 : $23.25 / $23.73 : $24.67 : $24.91 : $25.39 : $24.73 : $24.77 : $25.86 :
XLF/S: 11.68%: 10.83%: 10.31%/ 10.47%: 10.20% 10.09%: 10.26%: 10.13%: 9.99% : 10.29% :
SPY- : 203.87 : 209.92 : 223.53- / 235.74 : 241.80 : 246.91 : 247.41 : 244.12 : 247.84 : 251.23 :
VIX-- : 18.21%: 14.77%: 14.04% / 10.96%: 11.18%: 10.29%: 10.03%: 15.15% 10.13%: 9.51% :
ShPut $6.670 : $02.85 : $08.30 / $13.15 : $08.31 : $05.44 : $05.39: $07.45 : $05.25 : $02.86 -Ja$240p
DXY - : 98.693 : 95.720 : 102.38 / 100.22 : $95.64 : $93.33 : $93.49 : $92.96 : $92.66 : $93.07 :
H-gold: R10.75 : r14.05: R11.25 / R12.56 : R12.99 : R13.66: R13.53 : r13.92 : R14.36 : r13.83 / 11.3-14.9
=====
Gold : 1060.5 : 1344.9 : 1151.7 / 1251.2 : 1242.3 : 1275.3 : 1264.6 : 1294.0 : 1330.4 : 1284.8 :

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CABLE - I see important resistance at $1.35

 

GBP ... update :

BfxF84c.gif

 

like a charm!

GBP peaked at --

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