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Yes great video (Randy Pausch)..

 

By the way, can anyone else view "VisionVictory"'s latest video? It does not work for me.

 

I'd appreciate a quick summary if anyone can see it. It concerns the Jobless figures released Fri 8th Jan.

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I listened to some stuff Mish said last year about the deflation (on FSN) and "people need money in their hands" yaddyadda about inflation. I think the guy has low credibility.

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i get his email every day, i think its extremely insightful. he is a deflationist. i am for now, and in the final stage i am an inflationist. i am going to write article explaining it in the next week.

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i get his email every day, i think its extremely insightful. he is a deflationist. i am for now, and in the final stage i am an inflationist. i am going to write article explaining it in the next week.

The problem with the deflationist's view is that they disregard ALL historic evidence that is out there. And, NO, the 1930s and Japan are no examples at all, because the 1930s were on gold, and Japan was not a debtor nation and sold bonds to their own populace. Here, something to read:

 

Puncturing Deflation Myths, Part 1 & 2 (by Daniel R. Amerman, CFA)

Inflation During The Great Depression

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editoria.../2009/0212.html

False Lessons From Japan

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editoria.../2009/0318.html

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GF ill read the articles later. but the fact is inflation is a monetary phenomenon and if the central bank doesnt print there will not be inflation by defintion. that isnt to say the USD will rally, just that the cost of living in terms of food prices etc will be more than offset by the fall in the prices of other goods and services. however i think they will print in the end which will switch the deflationary crash into an inflationary crash.

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Sorry G0ldfinger to jump in but I couldn't help myself... :)

 

They're printing now!

 

GF ill read the articles later. but the fact is inflation is a monetary phenomenon and if the central bank doesnt print there will not be inflation by defintion. that isnt to say the USD will rally, just that the cost of living in terms of food prices etc will be more than offset by the fall in the prices of other goods and services. however i think they will print in the end which will switch the deflationary crash into an inflationary crash.

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with the money multiplier zero due to net deleveraging they will have to print a lot more to get price and wage inflation moving, i think that would most likely coincide with a currency crisis, not before

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with the money multiplier zero due to net deleveraging they will have to print a lot more to get price and wage inflation moving, i think that would most likely coincide with a currency crisis, not before

I think we will see a supply shock of some sort or a more severe currency/sovereign debt crisis at some stage. Then the current multiplier won't matter anymore.

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