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drbubb

RISE Makati.com - Update and Marketplace

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Thanks.

FOUR "bargain secondhand" Flats Offer at The Rise (per that Facebook page):

Floor: Type- : Price------- : SqM- : PerSqm :
10/fl : 1-BR : P3,800,000 : 25.82 : P147.2k :
11/fl :  Stu. : P3,800,000 : 25.08 : P151.5k :
31/fl : 1-BR : P4,400,000 : 28.01 : P157.1k :
32/fl : 1-BR : P4,400,000 : 28.01 : P157.1k :
==========================
------------> Average asking price : P 153,225 per sqm
------------> Compare, High floor : P 185,000 psm. recent offer for 1BR from Shang (5.18M /28= P185k)

----------------------------------------- : that's 17.2% cheaper

>AAPPH : AllAboutPropertyPH

4a31ffd92883f65a3c5f1cb898aaffdb.jpg

The Rise is still 2+ years away from completion. Built up to: Jul 2017 - 41st Floor

I reckon that secondhand prices will keep rising, as the Supply from the developer dries up

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New DOMAIN Name : RiseMakati.com is activated, linking to pg.1 of this thread

Now links to page 1 of this thread

Buyers & Sellers interested in The Rise, are welcome to read here and post here

If you want to JOIN the forum, please visit MakatiPrime.com

& Scroll down to post #3 to learn how to join.

It is Free! And once you join, you can post and visit pages in the private section of this site

(Note: on the day of activation, 8/12/2017, there were 1,400+ views here.)

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THIS ad offered what looks like a bargain to me - but then I looked closer

> http://www.myproperty.ph/properties-for-sale/condos/makaticity-manila/sacrifice-sale-rare-1br-unit-at-the-rise-by-shang-properties-814210

Then, I saw the date:

Sacrifice SALE! Below market value!
THE RISE by SHANG Properties
Malugay Street, Makati
– Near Makati Medical Hospital and Ayala’s City Gate Development
Turnover July 2018
1-Bedroom
– 28.01square meters
– RARE unit facing SOUTH and swimming pool, unblocked view of the Makati skyline
– No more units like this available for sale from Shang


Updated price: Php3,600,000.00 / 28.01 = P 128.5k per sqm

THEN, I SAW: Payment terms if sold before Sept 21, 2016 (!!!)

I believe the cheap sellers, at those sorts of levels are all gone now,

The Asking prices we are now seeing for 28 sqm flats, are at least P 3.8-4.0 Million now.

If you do manage to grab a bargain at a low price, please let us know

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mUefXOh.jpg

Eventually, we will see a scene that looks like THIS:

ov4YG7l.jpg

By early 2018, the area may look like as shown above

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Good shots from a revealing angle

On 8/17/2017 at 12:46 PM, AlexHK said:

Two photos of The Rise / Air Residences / Columns taken this morning (Aug 17th) from One Central

i3nuwvP.jpg

VcTeIPT.jpg

And here a photo of Lerato (Aug 17) and the delayed hospital nearby

qVP9Vqv.jpg

Air Residences is going up faster, and acquiring a skin faster.

With that speed, will it be the same quality as The Rise when they are both finished??

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ELEVATOR Comparison - The Rise is far better (like only 55% of The Air's use per elevator)

maxresdefault.jpg

Much less waiting time, less strain (& downtime?)

When Air's elevators are "under repair" there will be major delays, & I predict more downtime, give the strain

Excerpt:
residential floors - parking and retail floors × units per floor / elevators = units per elevator

Air Residences (7 floors parking/retail)
(59-7) x 75 / 12 = 325 units per elevator

The Rise (4 over ground floors/underground parking)
(63-4) x 55 / 18 = 180 units per elevator

Of course there are other things to consider as well like elevator speed, number of car park floors, number of people per unit, zones of elevators if there are (low, mid, high zone)

Thnx to MK - on SSC#392

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SUPPLY Concerns : The Rise & Air

On 8/22/2017 at 12:38 PM, DrBubb said:

Business World headline / & a look at Forecast Supply figures

Metro Manila condominium rents fall, selling prices plateau

(based on Colliers latest report)

+ VACANCY RATES will likely pick up further over the next 12 months with new supply

+ Consequence: Rental prices fell, capital values are plateauting

+ Vacancy rates at high-end condos were 10.9% at the end of June - Colliers expects rates to "hover between 11.0 & 11.5%"

+ Metro Manila's total condo stock is 96,000 units, with an addition of 2,300 units in Q2

+ For 2017 as a whole, Colliers sees an addition of 16,100 units, and a takeup of 7,500 units - hence the rise in the vacancy rate

+ Coming supply: 20,000 units in 2018, 8,000 units in 2019

+ Take-up rate is projected to be 8,000 more each year

Highest vacancy rates were: BGC = 14% (12%); Makati: 12.7% (11%) - prior rates at Q1 shown in (brackets)

Prices rises are slowing:

+ Makati CBD : +3.1% (was + 3.2% in Q1),

+ BGC / Ft. Bonifacio : + 0.2% (+ 2.7%)

Growth of supply in fringe areas, as impacted on rents and selling prices in the CBD's, since home buyers and tenants have other options

 

SUPPLY FORECAST (Revised from end-2016)

========= : End'16 : -2017 : -2018 : -2019 : -2020 : '17-20 : End'20 : % chg.
Ft.Bonifacio 24,200 : 4,100 : 8,200 : 3,000 : 0,000 : 15,300 : 37,500 : +63.2%
Makati CBD: 22,000 : 3,500 : 1,800 : 0,500 : 0,300 : 06,100 : 28,100 : +27.7%
Rise/Air Res: 00,000 : 0,000 : 0,000 : 0,000 : 6,400 : 06,400 : 06,400 : Infin.
Ortigas Ctr. : 16,200 : 1,400 ; 0,700 : 0,500 : 0,600 : 03,200 : 19,800 : +19.8%
Manila Bay : 08,800 : 5,500 : 8,500 : 2,600 : 2,100 : 18,700 : 27,500 : +212% !!
Rockwell Ctr: 04,100 : 0,000 : 0,500 : 0,700 : 0,000 : 01,200 : 05,300 : +29.3%
Other Areas : 00,000 :
>> TOTAL-- : 91,100: 16100: 21300 : 8,100 : 3,100 : 00,000: 140,100 : +53.8%

Mak+Rise/Air: 22,000 : 3,500 : 1,800 : 0,500 : 6,700 : 12,500 : 34,500 : +56.8%

After this year, the supply rise in Makati's CBD falls sharply - but are we seeing the whole picture?

Collier's seems to ignore the Huge lump of supply (6,400 units) from The Rise and Air Residences,

which I think will hit the Rental market in 2019 or 2020 - but Colliers seems to leave it out - Why?

If you include Air & Rise with Makati CBD, the combined rise is 57%, which is in line with the rise of 54%

for Greater Manila. Still, the big jump from these two in in 2019 or 2020, is bound to generate some sort of hiccup.

I hope it is a brief one. Allowing AirBNB in one or both buildings may help absorb the excess supply there faster.

The big jump in supply in Manila Bay (+212%) is a bigger concern to me,

> Excerpt from post on the DATA thread: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=18811&page=17

Summary - increase in Condos units: over 2017-2020
BGC/theFort: +63%
Makati CBD : +28%
Manila Bay : +212%!!!
--- Overall : +54%

However that Mak.CBD # does not include The Rise & Air Residences.
If you add on the 6,400 units at Rise & Air, you get:
Mak+Rise/Air: +57%
THAT much may be manageable, but will bring some temporary hiccups, I reckon.

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The Rise vs Air Race - the "inside story" : White, White and Red

BMH9DPX.jpg
Air is now 3-5 floors higher
hDgyebj.jpg
White is alright, for Rise, Air, & Alpha Makati Place (& Lerato too).

f43945a9e37e6e321a45d8dfae8d286a.jpg
But don't Turn on Red at the wrong time of day

Plans for Inside Air Residences

air%20res%201-9.jpg

air%20res%203.jpg

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Thanks.

The above photo was taken from the Tower in the background of this photo (One Central), I believe
Z6FgpIV.jpg

To the left, we are looking down Salcedo St. to One Central

And here's another angle - from the Roof deck of Beacon Tower
YHM971z.jpg

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AIR has a new neighbor coming

13108768_584916125009213_228272243_n.jpg

Lush Residences, across the street from Air Residences

Planned launch... October 2017, as by SMDC Premier

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Grab your Umbrella, and head for City Gate...

nUJE8X2.jpg

Check out the progress at City Gate, The Rise and Air

Or

mQE2arB.jpg

Stop and have a coffee at Coffee Bean (on the same corner), and see what progress is made while drinking your cappuchino.

 

Seen everywhere. A great advertisement for the Rise... Is the building itself, rising in the distance.

qbFvIGq.jpg

Example: If you walk out of the 100 West showroom on Gil Puyat Avenue, and turn right, you will see ... what's above.

Not many other buildings will be so visible from a distance, and from so many places.

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Tiara Hotel - ringside seat to watching The Rise grow taller

KWW2bJH.jpg

Tiara Oriental Hotel is immediately to The Rise. Some rooms look out on that

 

k641uJ9.jpg

Tiara Oriental Hotel Lobby ------------------------------------------------------------------- : Cafe / breakfast room

HOTEL RATE Card - at Sept. 2017
===============
Standard Room :  Php 2,950 / per night
De Luxe Room --------- : 3,300
Junior Suite --------------: 3,980
Executive Suite : 1BR: 5,300 / 2BR: 8,400
Extra Bed per p : Php     800
========
Discounts available for 14 night and longer stays, or via online, by negotiation
"promotional rates are available upon request through the sales department"
(try asking for discount for owners of The Rise, and refer to RiseMakati.com,
it might work - I suggested they consider such a discount.)

Website: http://Tiara.com.ph : Email: Sales@Tiara.co.ph

Tel. Nos. 7297888 or 888-41-46 to 49

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Amorsolo Creek's clean up & daylighting challenge

Someday - the creek running next to the Post Office & the Fire Station may get cleaned up.

sTOJaKX.jpg

Amorsolo Creek, A dirty old Creek flows by the Post Office next to the Rise

Just before I took this photo, I watched an empty wine bottle float by, and thought: "this photo will be a message in a bottle to the future".

One day it will get cleaned up. And if it was truly clean, it was be wonderful to sit by the creek and have a meal in an outdoor restaurant. But right now, with the odor you will find there, you might lose your appetite.

Daylighting the Amorsolo Creek: the Role of Participatory Design in ...

www.academia.edu/.../Daylighting_the_Amorsolo_Creek_the_Role_of_Participatory_...

.... a buried and forgotten urban waterway that is situated within a dense section of the Makati Central Business District. The research puts forth the relevance of the Amorsolo Creek as an urban waterway that needs to be reinstated, rehabilitated, and optimized into a functional city asset, as a response to the adverse effects of uncontrolled development and unsustainable urban practices. With the aid of Participatory Design, the revival of this creek is seen as an impetus to re-establish urban ecology and reorient people towards the preservation of streams into their natural states, most especially in unregulated built-up areas, and transform them into environment-sensitive public realm investments...

> http://www.academia.edu/29803477/Daylighting_the_Amorsolo_Creek_the_Role_of_Participatory_Design_in_Reviving_a_Vital_Waterway_in_the_Makati_CBD

amorsolo-creek.jpg

Amorsolo Creek Drains water from Amorsolo Street in Makati starting from the area around Makati Medical Center. A section of has been built over by the developers of the Pasay Road on-ramp of the Manila Skyway. Passes through San Lorenzo Villiage and Don Bosco Church.Dumps water into Estero de Tripa de Gallina.

> water formations: https://wesharewisdom.wordpress.com/2015/02/03/philippine-water-formations/

A restored creek would fit in with the environment Ayala is aiming to create at City Gate

7dW4iiQ.jpg

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Shapes, Shadows, Heights, & Elevators

On 9/24/2017 at 8:18 AM, AlexHK said:

The Rise & Air Residences.

Photo taken on 24 Sept 2017

a5JJpP6.jpg

HEIGHTS : Units Serviced per Elevator
Building-- : Height : Floors: /Story : Units / elev. = Units
The Rise    : 210 m. : 59 st. : 3.56m : 2,822 / 18 = 157 units: 100%
Air Resid.  : 195 m. : 51 st. : 3.82m : 3,234 / 12 = 270 units : 172% - puts more strain in working elevators
Mak.Place : 220 m. : 55 st. : 4.00m :
Columns-- : 114 m. : 30 st. : 3.80m : 0,390 / 02 = 140 units : 89% - only two Lifts raises risk of down-time
Kroma ----- : 157 m. : 51 st. : 3.08m : 0,821 / 05 = 164 units : 104%, Ave.Size 53 sqm : Residential
AlveoFinlT: 188 m. : 49 st. : 3.84m : 0,363 / 08 = 045 units : 29%, Ave.Size 115sqm : AFT, Office building
=====

It seems as if the shape from the Top of Columns, is getting recapitulated at Air ResidencesK9UC5fL.jpg

The Columns Ayala building at right is stretched - exaggerated in this image, and the background obscured

... and The Rise is in a shadow from this angle ... seems to be late morning

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"Elevator Issue" Could apply at SM's Air Residences too

At SM's Jazz: the wait for the elevator is 10-15 minutes

On 9/29/2017 at 12:38 AM, DrBubb said:

JAZZ, the Elevator Issue:

"I lived in Tower D, and being only 5 elevators, during 4:30PM-7:00PM the wait for the elevator is 10-15 minutes.

The line stretches from the lobby to the front door daily.Also the service elevator isn't networked with the other 4 units, so that also adds delay because everyone presses both elevators button to hail them and takes the first one.
Tower B is better (more elevators and globe repeaters), but D was overall a horrible experience.

It's just too many units, too much volume.
Also, be careful if you're attempting to get Fiber, the nodes are limited.
I would live in Jazz again provided it was a lower floor. The location is great, but for the price, you can get more."

> SSC-#410

=

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My agent friend at Shang says this about The Rise:

"I am sending you our latest availability for The Rise Makati. As projected, we will still be having a 30% price increase until the turnover.

There are (just) 4% remaining for the foreigner buyers.

For the construction update we are at the 50th floor and we are about to top off by the end of 2016. "

(he/she means End of 2017, I believe)

Note: Up to 40% of the Units in a Condo can be sold to foreign buyers.

Hence, they must now be at 36%

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CHEAP SELLERS at The Rise?

They look 10-18% cheaper than Direct prices, even after adjusting for timing

There seem to be some potential "cheap" sellers in the second hand market

hHGFm3A.png

Message:

"The Rise Resale Units selling lower than developer price!
*Studio------ 25.08 sqm 3.8M-4.0 Million : 3.900/25.08 = 155.5k psm
*1 bedroom 26.49 - 28.01 sqm 3.9M-4.1M : 4.000/28.01 = 142.8k psm
*2 Bedroom 68sqm 10.5M-11.5M corner units" : 11.0 /68.00 = 161.7k psm

======

This is from: OLX

KCom Reality

  • Location: Las Piñas, Metro Manila (NCR)
  • Date Posted: 03 October 2017

(If you test it, and find out the "sellers" are not genuine, please let us know) : img

51a997b16f9f3550ddcb82fde27255ae3ac934d1

A message on SSC, also suggests cheap sellers:

"I just checked OLX, and indeed, the developer is selling at >200k psqm,

but there are secondary sellers that are selling at a low 141K psqm and a lot of units at 150 to 160k psqm range.

There are difficulties as to the secondary units, because they need to be bought with either outright cash or a more convoluted (but lower cash outlay version) balance take out.
Back of the envelope computation:
If you are buying from secondary market (150k psqm) vs from developer, say (200k psqm) with the latter providing a 10(6)+10(28)+80(turnover) do take note that the delivery will probably happen 3 years from now, so that the 80% will become due at the end of 36th month. Lets simplify to a straight line: at 150k psqm in 3 years at 6 %pa interest: this will bring it to about 179k psqm, much closer to the developer price. I surmise that if you do a NPV calculation with 80% balloon at the end, that you can get a figure close to 200k psqm. So both prices are roughly correct. The market is efficient. "

> SSC

CHECKING this:

Type---------- : Upfront x106% : x106% : x106% + compl. = Total

Cash- P143k : 143k : P151.6 : P160.7 : P170.3 --------- > P170.3k ( - 18%)
Cash- P156k : 156k : P165.4 : P175.3 : P185.8 --------- > P185.8k ( - 10.5%)
20/80@200k : 40k : P42.4k : P44.9K : P47.6k + 160k = P207.6k ( 0% discount)

====

Looks to me that secondhand prices are definitely cheaper - & where can I get 6% on my Peso deposit?

ADDED in edit:

1) ...Difference is closer to 20%, significant but not ridiculous.
2) Right now cheapest preselling unit (approx 24-28 sqm) is 5.4m peso, with delivery 2.5 years later. Shang Salcedo, which is in better location, higher positioning, has 35sqm studios that are ~5.5m (156k sqm) in secondary market and ~6.5m (180k sqm) from developer inventory. Even Shang Salcedo developer's inventory is cheaper than Rise on a per sqm basis.
3) Nearby Lerato's occasional reopened units are 30-32sqm at 4.3-4.5m (150k sqm). Resale market has units at 4.2-4.5m.

I really don't understand the new Rise pricing. Though I am happy I got into Rise via resale a few months ago at ~130k sqm. If only I have money to buy more at that time, haha.

BGC is interesting too. Existing condos there are selling 120k-150k sqm. Even Serendra has occasional deal at 160k sqm. However, preselling projects have reached 240k sqm, with many at 200k sqm.

> ssc

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LATEST Prices -- from the Rise & Air developers - Over P 200 k

1d9434b01b855868fbee8ff29a49a6a6.jpg

The Rise and Air are standing tall now - er... ah, pricewise too.

(The following is what I got when I put "Rise Makati Price" in my search engine / Search Results ):

The Rise - PRICE LIST
UNIT DETAILS Unit Type Final Price Area(sq.m.)
Studio Unit        ₱ 5,400,000                        24.64 sqm - 25.98 sqm :: P 208.1k
One Bedroom   ₱ 5,500,000 -    9,500,000 26.49 sqm - 41.53 sqm :: P 207.6k : P 228.8k
Two Bedroom ₱ 11,900,000 - 12,400,000 72.21 sqm - 73.89 sqm :: P 164.8k : P 167.8k : (4pt.ave: P 203.1k )
Price - The Rise - Shang Properties, Inc Condo For Sale in Makati City ...
www.therisemakatishang.com/the-rise-pricelist
 
("Air Residences Makati Price" / Search Results ):
 
Air Residences - Price List

UNIT DETAILS Unit Type Final Price Area(sq.m.)

Studio Unit + Balcony      ₱ 4,830,000 22.95 sqm :: P 210.5k :
One Bedroom                    ₱ 4,960,000 26.35 sqm :: P 188.2k
One Bedroom+ Balcony   ₱ 5,940,000 29.99 sqm :: P 198.1k : (P 202.2k )

2 more rows

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Nov. 2nd Update

kogGgf9.jpg

The Rise & Air from a familiar angle.

With the street signs,it is easy to pinpoint where I was standing on a cloudy morning

 

ze6CLjh.jpg

SM's construction method for Air Residences utilizes pre-painted white facades,

and so the building goes up with the white coloring in place, much more quickly than the Rise.

 

LBN9JM3.jpg

Close-up showing Air, very high Floor , with The Rise at 52nd floor

It would be interesting to hear from an architect which method is higher quality, and more enduring

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GETTING there - The Rise has almost Topped out

Construction Progress
Jun 2014 – Start of Excavation
Mar 2016 – Completion of Substructure
Apr 2016 – Start of Superstructure
...
Sep 2017 - 48th Floor
Oct 2017 - 52nd Floor

>>>>>>> - vs. Planned height = 59 storeys

=======

SSC asks:

"What is substructure? why it takes 2 years to construct? and construction of 1st to 52nd flr took only less than 2 years."

> http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=1723515&page=77

Shang changed contractors after the substructure - because it moved too slowly.

Rumor has it, that the contractor ran into some moisture issues related to the nearby small river

"To me, what I dont understand is that Built Units that are new (less than 5 yo) should be selling higher (lower?) than under construction as there is much less risk. I can see that people are not pricing in the risks"

 

Makes sense - but three things push up prices of units still under construction:

+ Anticipation - of what might be - rather that the reality of needing to spend money on decoration,

or the need to find an actual paying tenant in competition with many other nearby flats, and

+ Marketing - the well-tuned marketing machines of the property developers

+ Payment structures - many buyers need financing, and will pay more for a property that they can pay for slowly over time, through a monthly payment structure

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X-Ray angle - you can really see the current status of the Rise in this photo

cfe3419192c5b511ef25b28e717ae8df.jpg

The Rise Makati, with Air Residence (higher) popping up behind it ... ssc

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New Finished look for The Rise?

c3qDzSW.jpg

It may be taking shape on some lower floors

I'm not sure what happened with the grey-black paint from the models-

which seemed designed to make the windows look larger (but fooled no one.)

pocIYW3.jpg

The grey-black paint has also disappeared from the opposite side of the building.

Will it return later?

=
PRICES - Latest at The Rise (dated 11/19/2017) : P 204.7k psm Average
======
Studio :   P 5.4 Mn. : 24.64-25.98:/25.0= P 216.0k psm
1 BR.sm: P 5.5 Mn. : 26.49 :/ 26.5=          P 207.5k psm
1 BR.lg :  P 9.5 Mn. : 41.53 :/ 41.5=          P 228.9k psm
2 BR --- : P12.15Mn: 72.21-73.89:/73.1=  P 166.2k psm
=======
> http://www.therisemakatishang.com/the-rise-pricelist

8qaES86.jpg

Air Residences & The Rise from Circuit Makati. Air may be 20% higher now.

NOTE:

If you want to buy a unit in the Rise at P180k psm or less,

Please post your interest here - ie. What Size unit are you aiming to Buy?

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AIR Residences - Crazy prices listed

My friend went to one of their showrooms a few days ago and he was shocked when they told him the price.
For the 26.35sqm unit the price was 6.15M so around 233k per sqm!

And the turnover is estimated for the 4Q 2020 so with delays it can easily be 4Q 2021 or even 2022.
I really wonder who would pay so much for such a small SMDC condo with turnover in 3 to 4 years. There are much better deals on the secondary market so why would people buy direct from SMDC.
I would really be interested to know if they can find buyers for that price.

> source, ssc: http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=1456032&page=21

/ 2 /

My guess would be the Chinese mainlanders buying everything up that's why prices are now that ridiculously high.

Their parking is now more expensive than my studio unit in Jazz (at the time of purchase)

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