The life and times of the Cryptocurrency markets

[Perishabull]

 

Bitcoing futures (on the CME) are said to be LAUNCHING in December

This will be a very interesting dynamic since bitcoin prices are currently defined by unregulated exchanges, if volume gets to a significant level in futures it could end up being Wall Street/institutions setting the price via high volume futures trading. What do you reckon?

 

Could be risk of significant manipulation of price.

[drbubb]

"... could end up being Wall Street/institutions setting the price via high volume futures trading.

What do you reckon?"

 

I reckon they would love to do that...

So they will probably TRY and succeed to some extent

[drbubb]

BLOCK CHAIN - looking Deeper

 

A little beyond the Basics - and well-explained

 

How the blockchain is changing money and business | Don Tapscott

 

Published on Sep 16, 2016

What is the blockchain?

If you don't know, you should; if you do, chances are you still need some clarification on how it actually works. Don Tapscott is here to help, demystifying this world-changing, trust-building technology which, he says, represents nothing less than the second generation of the internet and holds the potential to transform money, business, government and society.

 

 

(same guy - asks some deep questions like,,,)

 

DO WE NEED FIRMS?

The main reason we have them is... "transaction costs"

It is too hard to find people you can trust to Work With - the firm makes Trust easier.

 

With Blockchain, there may be a new way of organizing Work & Employment

 

New Global Blockchain Initiative: Don Tapscott, Co-author, Blockchain Revolution

[drbubb]

Bitcoin - Key support being tested

 

BTS ... update

==

[Perishabull]

Milton Friedman predicting cryptocurrencies back in 1999;

 

[hector]

I hereby declare an interim top in the cryptocurrency markets.

Crazy spike today in many cryptoassets bears hallmarks of a top. Bitcoin was $11000, now $9700.

Looks like you're going to be wrong again

 

Litecoin bidding looks well strong today.

 

Inevitable, since its going mainstream with Revolut adopting it as one of their currencies along with BTC and ETH.

 

It really should have a comparable marketcap to those

 

I can't wait to load my Revolut card with litecoin and spending it in stores

[hector]

Bank Of France Governor: Bitcoin Isnt a Cryptocurrency

https://cointelegraph.com/news/bank-of-france-governor-bitcoin-isnt-a-cryptocurrency

 

This goons comments and Mike Bloomberg's shows we're nowhere near a top just yet

[Perishabull]

Looks like you're going to be wrong again

 

Litecoin bidding looks well strong today.

 

Inevitable, since its going mainstream with Revolut adopting it as one of their currencies along with BTC and ETH.

 

It really should have a comparable marketcap to those

 

I can't wait to load my Revolut card with litecoin and spending it in stores

 

 

It is possible we are witnessing and participating in something really different here, since the value of these networks isn't just determined just by supply and demand,but also network growth. Network growth creates network effects which perpetuates further growth. The growth of a network is defined by Metcalfe's law which I've posted about before, back in 2014 when discussing cryptocurrencies.

 

 

Metcalfe's law as it applies to Crytpo-currencies;

 

 

From Wikipedia;

 

"Metcalfe's law states that the value of a telecommunications network is proportional to the square of the number of connected users of the system (n2). First formulated in this form by George Gilder in 1993,[1] and attributed to Robert Metcalfe in regard to Ethernet, Metcalfe's law was originally presented, circa 1980, not in terms of users, but rather of "compatible communicating devices" (for example, fax machines, telephones, etc.)[2] Only more recently with the launch of the Internet did this law carry over to users and networks as its original intent was to describe Ethernet purchases and connections.[3] The law is also very much related to economics and business management, especially with competitive companies looking to merge with one another."

"Metcalfe's law characterizes many of the network effects of communication technologies and networks such as the Internet, social networking, and the World Wide Web. Former Chairman of the U.S. Federal Communications Commission Reed Hundt said that this law gives the most understanding to the workings of the Internet.[4] Metcalfe's Law is related to the fact that the number of unique connections in a network of a number of nodes (n) can be expressed mathematically as the triangular number n(n − 1)/2, which is proportional to n2 asymptotically (that is, an element of O(n2)).

 

The law has often been illustrated using the example of fax machines: a single fax machine is useless, but the value of every fax machine increases with the total number of fax machines in the network, because the total number of people with whom each user may send and receive documents increases.[5] Likewise, in social networks, the greater number of users with the service, the more valuable the service becomes to the community."

 

This means there ought to be a strong correlation in the growth of users of a crypto-currency and it's value over time.

 

 

My god, if I'd properly thought through the implications of that insight as it applies to cryptocurrency markets, I would have likely been financially independent by now (my goal) since I would have bought a lot more Bitcoin. I did buy in 2014, but not many. Still I haven't sold any crypto since moving to 2 : 1 ratio of crypto to cash in August, and it's not possible for me to lose anything as I already cashed out 3X my original investment. If things keep moving according to Metcalfe's law then we all ought to be enjoying very merry christmasses and prosperous new years to come. I now think that John McAfee's predictions are probably based on Metcalfe's law.

 

Normally you can predict tops in markets by looking at parabolic moves however this is different in the sense that;

 

• These are brand new asset markets

 

• They appear to be following the growth defined by Metcalfe's law - and as above Metcalfe's law states that the value of a telecommunications network is proportional to the square of the number of connected users of the system (n²)

 

In addition to this dynamic of Metcalfe's law we have an additional dynamic of reflexivity which I've posted about before. (http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=16736&p=256245)

 

So this means that when prices run way ahead of value as suggested by Metcalfe's law it may be a sell signal, and when prices are below it may be a buy signal.

 

 

Further reading;

 

Business Insider;

Analyst says 94% of bitcoin's price movement over the past 4 years can be explained by one equation

 

Zerohedge;

Gold, Bitcoin, And Metcalfe’s Law

[hector]

Good. When the wider public comes to the same conclusions it's time to get out

[drbubb]

Venezuela to create digital currency amid financing crisis...

 

Caracas (AFP) - Venezuela is creating a digital currency to combat a financial blockade by the United States, President Nicolas Maduro announced Sunday.

It will be called the Petro and be backed up by Venezuela's reserves of oil and gas and its gold and diamond holdings, the president said in his weekly television program.

"This is going to allow us to move toward new forms of international financing for the country's economic and social development," the president said.

The news comes as Venezuela faces acute financing problems after creditors and ratings agencies declared the government and the state run oil firm PDVSA to be in partial default for missing interest and principle payments on bonds.

Related SearchesDigital CurrencyVenezuela Bonds

[drbubb]

MONGOLIA

Memorandum of understanding on introducing cryptocurrency established

A forum themed 'Crypto Nation' took place on 2nd December in the Corporate Convention Center, with the aim of discussing cryptocurrency, a digital asset.

Organised by Ard Financial Group, over 100 delegates attended to discuss its potential in Mongolia.

==

>

[Perishabull]

A cryptocurrency I bought earlier this year has increased in value by 13X, IOTA.

 

Bought for $0.40, now trading at $5.30.

 

They announced partnership with Microsoft.

 

These market opportunities are a once in a lifetime situation.

 

https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/iota-price-explodes-after-microsoft-partnership-announcement/amp/

[hector]

Iota is scammy as fuck

 

But well done with the gains mate

 

My colleague is seething with envy as he was bullish on it but I convinced him it was too risky

[Perishabull]

Iota is scammy as fuck

In what way is it a scam?

[hector]

Are you not aware of the custom hash function debacle?

 

Also, I read yesterday that the partnership with Microsoft was a very weak one. Certainly not along the lines of the EntEthAlliance. Just some fake news to pump to.

[Perishabull]

Are you not aware of the custom hash function debacle?

 

Also, I read yesterday that the partnership with Microsoft was a very weak one. Certainly not along the lines of the EntEthAlliance. Just some fake news to pump to.

I've not heard of that. I bought in as it appeared to be quite revolutionary technology, using a Directed Acyclic Graph rather than Blockchain.

 

You're probably right - people buying due to hype thinking it's the best new thing out there.

[Perishabull]

Bitcoin today

 

Coinbase prices

 

Linear chart- Apr to present

 

Log chart - May to present

 

 

The price looks insane even on a log chart! Bitcoin defying gravity here surely!

[hector]

Absolute madness.

 

My theory is this was done to stop out long positions on altcoins

 

The incoming public will baghold Bitcoin while alts will perform the same pump one-by-one

 

I'm expecting payday for my Litecoins.

[romans holiday]

Greeting all, I am back..... as if waking from a long slumber, I took one look at the long term log chart, rubbed my eyes, and bought heavily.

 

I arrived late to the party. I bought heavily at 10,000 and 11,000 at the end of December, beginning of this month, when most where nervous at the 'toppy' levels. Already we are pushing 17,000.

 

Dr Bubb, it seems you have fundamental objections to this bull run?? People interrogate me about the fundamentals, I shrug my head, and state the market is my friend... for now.

 

PS, I seem unable to post a URL.

[drbubb]

How Max Keiser Gave Away 18 Million Dollars

 

Max gave away $18 million worth of Bitcoins to Russell Brand

[Perishabull]

 

I'm expecting payday for my Litecoins.

Litecoin Approaches $200 in Monster Rally - The Merkle via BTCnews on iOS.

 

https://themerkle.com/litecoin-approaches-200-in-monster-rally/

 

Go Hector! I missed Litecoins, was targeting them prior to implementation of segwit but was caught out by the initial rise from $4 to $15, which came earlier than I expected, so I never got in.

[Perishabull]

Greeting all, I am back..... as if waking from a long slumber, I took one look at the long term log chart, rubbed my eyes, and bought heavily.

 

I arrived late to the party. I bought heavily at 10,000 and 11,000 at the end of December, beginning of this month, when most where nervous at the 'toppy' levels. Already we are pushing 17,000.

 

Dr Bubb, it seems you have fundamental objections to this bull run?? People interrogate me about the fundamentals, I shrug my head, and state the market is my friend... for now.

 

PS, I seem unable to post a URL.

This is really interesting - I would not have the guts to buy at the levels you did but am really interested in what you are seeing in the long term charts;

 

I've used bitcoinwisdom.com to create the charts below.

 

Logarithmic Bitcoin - September 2014 to present (Bitstamp)

 

An upward double step change in the linear trend.

 

Linear Bitcoin - September 2014 to present (Bitstamp)

 

 

A significant upward divergence from the trendline. Based on this basic price analysis, fair value relative to long term trend appears to be in the $8K - $11K range.

 

I still have the license for a brilliant trading platform - Multicharts - so I will need to see if I can get data for Bitcoin and use that to do some proper professional charting and price analysis. When I used to trade futures I developed an algorithmic trading system that used genetic optimization for price analysis - I reckon it might be possible to create an effective bitcoin trading strategy.

[hector]

Litecoin Approaches $200 in Monster Rally - The Merkle via BTCnews on iOS.

 

https://themerkle.com/litecoin-approaches-200-in-monster-rally/

 

Go Hector! I missed Litecoins, was targeting them prior to implementation of segwit but was caught out by the initial rise from $4 to $15, which came earlier than I expected, so I never got in.

 

 

Thanks man. Yesterday was a very good day for me indeed. I had hoped that more people would heed my advice, but that's better for me I suppose

 

I think this upswing has the potential to be a very big one for crypto in general, similar to the tech bubble of 97-99, but as applied to money and the accelerated debasement of fiat

[Perishabull]

 

Americans Are Taking Out Mortgages to Buy Bitcoin -

http://www.altcointoday.com/americans-taking-mortgages-buy-bitcoin/

 

What could possibly go wrong. Hey maybe Wall Street could securitise mortgages taken out to buy bitcoin.  Then we could have CDOs MBS etc for these mortgages...

[drbubb]

How crazy can it get?

Borrow against your home, to buy the MOST SPECULATIVE "investment" in history!