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Megaworld and AGI (parent) thread

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Megaworld and AGI (parent) thread

 

Earnings are out for 2016 : MEG profits up 11%, parent AGI up 5%

These are reasonable results, but represent a slowdown in Growth

 

Charts, AGI vs. MEG : 6-mos : 10d // Agi vs Ali, Cpg : 6mo : 10d :

 

Megaworld's stock is breaking down / (in edit, it bottomed at P3.21 in XX 2017)

 

PH:MEG ... update / Last: P 3.39 versus High P 5.51 (- 38.5%)

Updated... all-data / Last: P 5.28 versus Low: P 3.21 (+64.5%)

KfzjMwF.gif

 

I find it hard to buy the notion that Manila property is still in a Bull market, when I see charts like the one above.

 

These are under pressure too : ALI at P33.85 - 17.5% : SMPH at P28.40 - 9.9% :

 

And Century ( CPG at P0.495 - 75% ) may soon retest the old lows.near 0.40.


AGI Announced yesterday, MEG a few days earlier. ... 5-yrs : 2-yrs : 6-mos : 10-d :

MEG stock is up to P 3.74, 10% above the recent low near P 3.40 last week
AGI is trading at P 13.68, up 2% on the day, and +9.4% above last week's low near P12.50.
The market seems to like these results

PH:AGI / Alliance Global Group Inc. ... 5-yrs : 2-yrs : 6-mos : 10-d :

20yXBTM.gif

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SUMMARY of 2016 Earnings

 

Alliance Global 2016 net grows 5% to P22.8B (Apr. 7, 2017, Manila Times)

 

Ramping up CAPEX pays off

 

"Since about three to four years ago, the group made a deliberate effort to significantly raise our level of spending to expand our geographic footprint both here and abroad, and ensure a more sustainable growth in future earnings," AGI President Kingston Sian.

 

AGI Business Unit : net income : change* : pct. : Comment

Megaworld / MEG-- : P 11.6 bn --. : 1.24 mn + 12%: strong leasing operatons
Emperador / -------- : P 7.7 bn -- : 0.76 mn + 11%: "cost efficiencies" GPM of 36% was a record
Travellers / Resorts : P 3.4 bn -- : -0.60 mn - 15%:: FX Losses on $300mn bond, F&B income: P 3.8bn
Global Arches /McD : P 1.2 bn -- : 0.00 mn : ???
Global Est's/ GERI : P 1.0 bn -- : 0.50 mn : + 50%: (what % owned by AGI? I assume 100% here)
====
---------- Sub-total -- : P 24.9 bn : 1.90 mn : + 8%
---------- Other ------ : ( 2.1 bn): (0.81 mn)
Alliance Glbl/ AGI-- : P 22.8 bn -- : 1.09 mn + 5% : Consol. Revenues were flat, at P 139 bn

 

"Despite our aggressive expansion strategy, our balance sheet remains healthy and financial gearing is still very comfortable"

 

 

Megaworld income rises 12% to P11,6 B

 

+ Rental revenues rose 15 percent to P10.01 bn

+ Introduced new concept in real estate development: "integrated lifestyle community" at Eastland Heights - 640 h. in Antipolo, Rizal mtns

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(from the Stock chat thread): A decent profit after one month

 

TAKING PROFITS, on the "thought trade", because the "easy money" may have been made on MEG, and AGI.

 

Why is SM so expensive?

The PE Ratio seems too high now. The yield too low also

 

PH: Smph / SM Prime Holdings Inc. ... All-data :

SMph-log_zpsdyvaqtph.gif

 

smph P28.30 - 0.20 / PER: 34.3, yield: 0.81%

ALI : P35.30 - 0.70 / PER: 24.9, yield: n/a
AGI : P12.88 +0.10 / PER: 9.22, yield: 2.41%
MEG : P 3.55 - 0.03 / PER: 10.3, yield: 1.42%

VLL : P 4.77 - 0.03 / PER: 7.03, yield: 2.48%
FLI : P 1.68 - 0.03 / PER: 8.40, yield: 2.44%

===========

 

As a thought experiment....

1/

SELL : 10,000 shs. SMPH : P28.30 at Php 283,000 -

and Hedge by:

BUY : 22,000 shs. AGI : P12.88 at Php 283,360 - Net: (Php 360)
or:

2/
BUY : 40,000 shs. MEG : P 3.55 at Php 142,000 ++
BUY : 84,000 shs. FLI : P 1.68 at Php 141,120 - Net: (Php 120)

 

With MEG/Megaworld up to P4.10, and is at/near expected resistance.

 

MEG2_zpsktvf6o96.gif

 

That's 15.5% above the level (P3.55) where I flagged it as a possible Buy.
If I was in one of the above trades as a Short Term punt, I would consider taking profits now

1/
SELL : 10,000 shs. SMPH : P28.30 at Php 283,000 / now P29.65 - P296,500 (loss:-P13,500)
and Hedge by:
BUY : 22,000 shs. AGI : P12.88 at Php 283,360 / now P14.70 - P323,400 (gain: P40,040)
= Net: (Php 360) = Overall Gain: Php 26,540-> +9.4% on the Face value, of a well-hedged trade
or:
2/
BUY : 40,000 shs. MEG : P 3.55 at Php 142,000 / now P 4.10 - P164,000 (gain: P22,000)
BUY : 84,000 shs. FLI : P 1.68 at Php 141,120 / now P 1.66 - P139,440 (loss: -P 1,680)
= Net: (Php 120) = Overall Gain: Php 6,820-> +2.4% on the Face value, of a well-hedged trade
=====
I would probably only unwind the 1st part (MEG vs. 5,000 shs SMPH) of the 2nd trade,
and continue to stay short SMPH vs long FLI

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Megaworld stock has had a great rally from under P3.50 to 5.50

 

MEG ... update

l4SHh24.gif

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