Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
drbubb

DrBubb's Diary - Apr. 2017 Trading - v.99

Recommended Posts

Holy Week : was good for gold as Geo-political events pushed the news flow

 

Price : (06/26) (12/31) (04/01) Chg %: (07/01) : (09/30) : (12/30) / (01/27) (02/24) (03/31) : (04/07) (04/14) :
Gold : 1173.8 : 1060.5 : 1223.2 === >: 1344.9 : 1317.1 : 1151.7 / 1188.4 : 1258.3 : 1251.2 : 1257.3 : 1288.5 :
GLD : 112.56 : 101.46 : 116.93 ----- z : 128.41 : 125.64 : 109.61 / 113.49 : 119.70 : 118.72 : 119.46 : 122.60 :
GDX : $18.09 : $13.72 : $20.12 ----- z : $29.05 : $26.43 : $20.95 / $23.22 : $24.13 : $22.81 : $23.50 : $24.54 :
Ratio: R6.222: R7.395 : R5.811 ----- z : R4.420 : R4.754 : r5.232 / R4.888 : r4.961 : r5.205 : r5.083 : r4.996 (/10.51)
Ratio 16.07%: 13.52%: 17.21% ----- z : 22.62%: 21.04%: 19.11%/ 20.45% 20.16%: 19.21%: 19.67%: 20.02% (GDx53.5 )
Gdxj : $24.86 : $19.21 : $28.40: ----- z: $45.38 : $44.29 : $31.55 / $36.87 : $40.09 : $35.98 : $36.56 : $36.70 :
Spdr : 706. E : 642.37 : 815.est ----- z : 953.91 : 947.95 : 822.17 / 803.0E : 841.17 : 834.EE : 836.49 : 848.92 = 27.29m
Au/S : R-1.66 : R-1.65 : R- 1.52 ----- z : R-1.41 : R-1.39 : r1.401 / R1.48E: R1.496 : R1.50E : R1.503 : R1.52 :
TLT - : 115.23 : 120.58 : 130.68 ----- z : 140.57 : 137.51 : 119.13 / 119.63 : 122.01 : 120.71 : 120.71 : 123.47 :
G/Tlt : R10.19 : r8.795 : R9.404 ----- z : R9.567: R9.578 : R9.668/ R9.993 : R10.26: R10.37 : R10.42 : R10.44 vs L: 8.65
====
AGS : Y3,409 : y3,210 : y3,367 ----- z : y4,157 : y4,209 : y0,000 /y0.000 : y0,000 : y0,000 : y0,000 : y0,000 18.51 :
SLV- : $15.11 : $13.19 : $14.34 ----- z : $18.74 : $18.20 : $15.11 / $16.22 : $17.40 : $17.25 : $17.03 : $17.53 :
SLW-: $15.11 : $12.42 : $16.40 ----- z: $24.78 : $27.30 : $19.32 / $21.42 : $21.15 : $20.84 : $20.94 : $21.84 :
SIL*- : $26.43 : $18.51 : $26.50 ----- z : $45.95 : $44.48 : $32.11 / $37.36 : $38.28 : $36.02 : $36.92 : $38.09 :
DBA : $22.71 : $20.61 : $20.50 ----- z : $21.98 : $19.98 : $19.97 / $20.57 : $20.29 : $19.78 : $19.58 : $19.70 :
XLE- : $76.08 : $60.32 : $61.06 ----- z : $68.60 : $70.61 : $75.32 / $74.23 : $70.99 : $69.90 : $70.36 : $69.31 :
Cop'r: $2.641 : $2.135 : $2.170 ----- z : $2.220 : $2.210 : $2.510 / $2.690 : $2.700 : $2.652 : $2.647 : $2.570 :
WTI- : $59.65 : $37.07 : $36.36 ----- z : $49.28 : $48.24 : $53.72 / $53.17 : $53.99 : $50.30 : $52.24 : $53.18 :
CRB : 224.90 : 176.27 : 168.03 ----- z : 194.26 : 186.30 : 192.51 / 193.43 : 190.93 : 185.88 : 187.11 : 187.77 :
Corn : 385.00: 358.00 : 353.50 ----- z : 360.25 : 336.30 : 352.00 / 362.50 : 370.75 : 364.40 : 359.50 : 371.00 :
Wheat 575.00: 468.50 : 474.00 ----- z : 496.25 : 402.00 : 408.00 / 420.50 : 448.00 : 426.50 : 424.00 : 429.75 :
Sugar 11.92c : 15.24c : 15.18C ----- z : 20.78C : 23.00c : 19.51c / 20.33c : 19.81c : 16.76c : 16.77c : 16.70c :
BTC : 250.00 : $433.5 : $420.0 ----- z : $680.0 : $604.5 : $948.5 / $920.0 : 1135.0 : 1041.1 : 1188.7 : 1170.0 :
B/G.: 21.30% : 40.88%: 34.34% ----- z: 50.56%: 45.90%: 82.36%/ 77.42%: 84.81%: 83.20% : 94.54% : 90.80% :
=====
EEM- : $39.93 : $32.19 : $34.15 ----- z : $34.69 : $37.45 : $35.01 / $37.47 : $38.48 : $39.39 : $39.37 : $39.14 :
FXI -- : $46.21 : $35.29 : $33.58 ----- z : $34.48 : $38.01 : $34.71 / $36.82 : $38.54 : $38.49 : $38.74 : $38.26 :
ShCm : 4192.9: 3519.2 : 3009.5 ----- z : 2932.5 : 3004.7 : 3103.6 / 3159.2 : 3253.4 : 3222.5 : 3286.6 : 3207.8 :
PHM- : $20.48 : $17.82 : $18.42 ----- z: $19.48 : $20.04 : $18.38 / $21.26 : $21.73 : $23.55 : $23.28 : $23.71 :
IYR -- : $72.49 : $75.08 : $77.91 ----- z : $82.33 : $80.64 : $76.94/ $76.97 : $80.31 : $78.49 : $79.14 : $79.79 :
IWM - : 127.50 : 112.62 : 111.12 ----- z : 115.39 : 124.21 : 134.85 / 136.19 : 138.65 : 137.48 : 135.52 : 133.72 :
XLF - : $24.89 : $23.82 : $22.70 ----- z : $22.74 : $19.30 : $23.25 / $23.65 : $24.42 : $23.73 : $23.52 : $22.90 :
XLF/S: 11.86%: 11.68% 10.97% ----- z : 10.83% V8.92% :10.31% / 10.33%: 10.31%: 10.47%: 10.00%: 9.849% :
SPY- : 209.82 : 203.87 : 206.92: ----- z : 209.92 : 216.30 : 223.53 / 228.97 : 236.74 : 235.74 : 235.20 : 232.51 :
VIX-- : 14.02%: 18.21% 13.10%: ----- z :14.77%: 13.29%: 14.04% / 10.58%: 11.47% 10.96%: 12.87% : 15.96% :
ShPut $06.15 : $6.670: $05.00: ----- z : $02.85 : /Sp210: $08.30 / $20.00 : $14.95 : $13.15 : $13.52 : $16.10 : Ja$240p
DXY - : 95.399 : 98.693 : 94.608 ----- z : 95.720 : $95.42 : 102.38 / 100.56 : $99.77 : 100.22 : 101.13 : 100.46 :
H-gold: r12.30 : R10.75 : r12.93 ----- z : R14.05: R13.80 : R11.25 / R11.82: R12.26: R12.56 : R12.37 : R12.83 / 11.3-14.2
=====
Gold : 1173.8 : 1060.5 : 1223.2 === >: 1344.9 : 1317.1 : 1151.7 / 1188.4 : 1258.3 : 1251.2 : 1257.3 : 1288.5 :

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Bitcoin prices traded mostly sideways through the Holidays

 

charts, bitcoins : 5mos BTC-1mo 5d:

5d

BTC-st_zpsxwz8cudp.png

 

BTC-5mo_zpsqfutyp73.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

An End to the two-party tyranny?

 

A new "committee of the whole" - a National Chattaqua, proposed by Robert David Steele

 

Ex CIA Robert David Steele On Deep State Versus Donald Trump - David Kamnitzer Interview

Published on Apr 16, 2017

Folks I was asked by Mr Steele and given permission by the interviewer, David Kamnitzer to upload this video to my channel and get it out to a larger audience. Another hard hitting and informative RDS interview.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

HK-3081. like GLD / Gold ... update : GLD

 

gld_zpse8h29cns.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Tony C's :

Monday update

SHORT TERM: gap up opening, DOW +184

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.1%. European markets were closed. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:30 the NY FED was reported lower: 5.2 v 16.4. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 2336...

The market gapped up at the open for the first time since March 21st. That gap up was sold off, this one was not. The last time a gap up opening was not sold off the same day, was the uptrend high on March 1st. While today’s 20-point rally was a good way to start the week, short term momentum has already risen from quite oversold to overbought. So far it looks like a good bounce within an overall correction. With the SPX/DOW in confirmed downtrends, and the NDX/NAZ still awaiting confirmation. We would expect the latter to confirm a downtrend before this correction ends. Short term support rises to the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at the 2385 and 2411 pivots. Short term momentum ended the day overbought. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp
==

> https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2017/04/17/monday-update-544/

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Bonds called : "the short of a lifetime" - on TC's Blog

 

(poster expects TLT rally to 127 or higher)

 

http://tos.mx/H2QDgy?image

 

phil1247 says:

michael eckert of E W trends and charts posted this over a year ago
top call was very close
initial wave 1 ending in may 2017 is near actual low
now we are in the countertrend wave 2 …possibly 50 % retrace
look at the next wave.down
..probably 1.618 wave 1 at least

gary…this is what i was trying to show you

summary….. SHORT of a lifetime boys and girls

scottycj1 says:

Phil
Can you send a better chart ?

phil1247 says:

http://tos.mx/H2QDgy?image

WAVE 2 up to maybe 127 130… 50 % retrace

wave 3 will be the real bond crash …
TLT to 86… then 82

 

And TC on bonds: https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2016/12/17/weekend-update-583/

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Mr Li buying Gold?

 

INSIDER REVEALS: CHINA'S TOP BILLIONAIRE WANTS PHYSICAL GOLD NOW!!

 

Actually, I have been lightening up, because I expect another dip

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ten Nifty stocks - mostly with not so nifty P/E's

 

These 10 stocks have 20% of the MktCap of the S&P-500.

But produce only 13% as much of the earnings.

Might these be the best stocks for shorting (or Put buying) ?

 

There used to be favored stocks trading at high PE ratiios. They were called the "Nifty 50"

Here are 9 (?) well known stocks I found trading at high prices.

 

charts: 5-yrs : #1 : #2 / 1-yr : #3 : #4 / 10d : #4 : #5 :

 

The list is the Top 10 companies by Market Capitalization, as of early 2017

 

AAPL / Apple Inc ... all data : $141.83 / Change: +0.78 / PE: 16.99 : yield: 1.61%
AAPL_zpse95wy5c2.gif

.

AMZN / Amazon.com Inc. ... all data : $901.99 / Change: arrow_up_sm.gif +17.32 / PE: 183.9 : yield: n/a

AMZN_zps9s7esn7w.gif

.

BRK.A / Berkshire Hathaway ... all data : $246,700 / change: +1,700 / PE: 16.85 : yield: n/a

BRKA_zps6yzspwsp.gif

.

FB / Facebook Inc. ... all data : : $141.42 / change: +2.03 / PE: 43.38 : yield: n/a

FB_zpszjup9gcw.gif

.

GOOG / Alphabet inc. ... all data : : $837.17 / Change: +13.61 / PE: 30.03 : yield: n/a

GOOG_zpseox9jxtj.gif

.=====

 

AAPL / Apple Inc ................... all data : $141.83 / $744.1bn : 5.24bn / PE: 16.99 : yield: 1.61%

GOOG / Alphabet inc. .......... all data : $837.17 / $578.8bn : 601mn / PE: 30.03 : yield: n/a

MSFT / Microsoft Corp. .....,,.. all data : $ 65.48 / $506.0bn : 7.73bn / PE: 30.89 : yield: 2.38%
AMZN / Amazon.com Inc. ...... all data : $901.99 / $431.1bn : 478mn / PE: 183.9 : yield: n/a

FB / Facebook Inc. .......... all data : $141.42 / $409.7bn : 2.90bn / PE: 43.38 : yield: n/a

=============================== : SubT : ====== $2,669.7 bn / PE: 61.04 : yield: 1.99%
BRK.A / Berkshire Hathaway all data : $246,700/$405.7bn : 1.64m / PE: 16.85 : yield: n/a

XOM / Exxon Corp. ................ all data : $ 81.58 / $345.9bn : 4.24bn / PE: 43.57 : yield: 3.68%

JNJ / Johnson & Johnson .. all data : $125.72 / $340.8bn : 2.71bn / PE: 21.38 : yield: 2.55%
JPM / JPMorgan Chase &Co all data : $ 85.86 / $305.5bn : 3.56bn / PE: 13.22 : yield: 2.33%
WFC / Wells Fargo ................ all data : $ 52.72 / $263.4bn : 5.00bn / PE: 13.19 : yield: 2.88%
================================ : SubT :====== $1,661.3 bn / PE: 21.64 : yield: 2.86%
================================ : SubT :====== $2,669.7 bn / PE: 61.04 : yield: 1.99%
================================ : total : ====== $4,331.0 bn / PE: 41.34 : yield: 2.57% (ave. of those 7 with divs.)
SPX / S&P 500 Index....... all data : Log : $ 2,349.:-$21,188.bn: 9.02b/ PE: 26.37 : yield: 1.95%
----------------------------What share of SPX is Top 10? : 20.44%: Earnings: $105bn/ $803bn : 13%

 

SPX-log_zps5apioihi.gif

 

> All 10 stock charts - on New thread: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=21408

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

BITCOINS : possible fractal pattern may be predicting a sharp drop

 

cc

BTC-5mo_zpsf1z8wcvf.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

May? She Did!

 

Apr 18 6:25am:

The pound swung wildly on Tuesday after Prime Minister Theresa May called for an early election,

a political gambit that will add to uncertainty as the U.K. negotiates its exit from the European Union.

More

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Top of Page Charts: Gold / USD / china gold // Russell / Copper / china silver

t24_au_en_usoz_6.gif : 24hr-euro-small.gif : t24_au_en_euoz_2.gif : AuTD1.png?id=11409261605

idx24_russell_en_2.gif : t24_ag_en_usoz_2.gif:: idx24_hui_en_2.gif : AgTD0.png?id=11409221912

3d : ag : au

 

China/SGE: 4,200 RMB/kg / 6.150 = $ 683 / 35.274 = $19.36 (discount of about 20-25 cents?)

10/08-10am: Rmb3,846 /6.140 = $ 626.4 / 35.274 = $17.76 (prem. 57 cents)

10/13-9.am : Rmb3,884 /6.136 = $ 633.0 / 35.274 = $17.94 -$17.39= prm-$0.55

Goldstock : HK-2840 : GBS.L : GLD : GDX : NUGT : tza/faz -- HKpeg : DXY : StkX : 10-d : SPX : sjw :

HK 3081: 2899: 1051: hs / UK: POG / ABX : Sil : IAG : dba-etc. ... lot : PB : CVN : CC2 : BTC : SLV-lv

=================================================

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As Hoped - some great news from Wallbridge

 

7.06 metres of 149.08 g/t gold !!!
Bonanza Grades !

RE:HALTED!

posted April 18, 2017 10:22 am by forcite

TORONTO, April 18, 2017 /CNW/ - Wallbridge Mining Company Limited (TSX:WM, FWB: WC7) ("Wallbridge") is pleased to announce that the initial results from Wallbridge's first drilling program on its 100% owned Fenelon Gold property ("Fenelon") in Quebec have exceeded expectations and have confirmed the resource expansion potential on the property. The exploration drill program at Fenelon commenced in March 2017 and to date nine holes have been completed totaling 1,573 metres. An expanded drilling program will resume when the wet spring conditions subside.

Highlights

  • Five of the nine holes completed intersected significant gold mineralization.
  • Drill hole FA-17-07 intersected three mineralized zones including 7.06 metres of 149.08 g/t gold with a higher grade sub-interval of 3.72 metres of 281.30 g/t gold.
  • Drill hole FA-17-08 intersected two mineralized zones including 5.16 g/t gold over 2.68 metres with a higher grade sub-interval of 32.30 g/t gold over 0.39 metres.
  • Drill hole FA-17-02 intersected three mineralized zones including 3.04 g/t gold over 4.58 metres.
  • Drilling proves good continuity of Zone 110, which was not included in the 2016 resource estimate due to insufficient drilling.
  • At least two new zones have been discovered within short distance of the existing ramp to underground workings
  • All mineralized zones remain open and warrant further exploration drilling
  • Exploration target: 240,000 to 400,000 ounces of gold (600,000 to 1,500,000 tonnes at a grade of between 8 and 12 g/t gold)

"We are extremely pleased with these initial results which have exceeded our expectations", stated Marz Kord, President and CEO of Wallbridge. "We purchased Fenelon because we saw potential for it to grow far beyond the existing near surface resource. This gold project can not only be brought into production in the near term for low capex, but these exploration drill results demonstrate that there is a lot of potential to expand the gold resources and reserves". He continued, "Our recently completed positive prefeasibility study on the near surface resource support continuing our advancement towards a bulk sample and subsequent production."

=====

 

0.135 Change: arrow_up_sm.gif +0.04 : +42.11%

On Volume: 1,421,474

 

update

ab_zps9bv45ecr.gif

==

> WM thread: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=21393

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hong Kong Property prices have hit a New High

 

... update

ccli_chart_zpsgm99twq0.png

 

From 36 (in mid-2003) to 152.57 fourteen years later, is a gain of +324%, or an average of +10.9% p.a.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Scum-o-crats in trouble

Trophies for losers, and more women candidates won't fix it !

Mika : We need to do work !!

 

DNC Chair Tom Perez: Democrats Will Organize For Jon Ossoff | Morning Joe | MSNBC

 

Perez: " We see energy everywhere"

 

They do not GET that they are LOSERS and need to make real changes.

Right now they are giving themselves trophies when they lose

 

Pereze thinks they need to recruit more FEMALE candidates! Hahaha!

 

/ 2 /

New DNC chair gets booed during a reception in Maine

 

Published on Apr 18, 2017

The Fiscal Times columnist Liz Peek on why the new DNC chairman Tom Perez was booed during an event in Portland, Maine.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A frightening "Free ride"

 

Caught On Video: Truck Drags Car 4 Miles Up Cajon Pass

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Greg revisits my little Polny - who gives reasons why he 'got the math wrong'

 

"A big move to the downside (in stocks) before the end of April"

Gold at $2,000 "very worst case, buy early June"

 

Bo Polny-Jubilee Year Means Stocks, Bonds and Dollar are Toast

 

Published on Apr 18, 2017

Market cycle analyst Bo Polny says a “Jubilee” year is the end of seven, seven year cycles. That is 49 years, and now is the 50th year which is called a “Jubilee” year. Polny says, “49 years is the end of the cycle. So, the 50th year is a year of cleansing and a year of washing. It’s a year of debt forgiveness. . . .It’s a year of rest. It’s a debt forgiveness year. . . . The old system of debt, bonds and the dollar, those are all debt based instruments. That’s the old . . . that’s part of the cycle which ended. Now you have seven years forward of massive world changes.”
Polny also says, “Do expect that this year, 2017, markets will be falling. The dollar will be falling, and gold and silver will never be at these low prices ever again.”

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Meantime, back in Philadelphia...

 

The Gallery Mall's parent companies are struggling in the stock markey

 

Mall owner, PEI's stock took a big hit. The operator, MAC's did too - Why?

 

Stock------------- : -High- : -Low- : -Last- :change: Yield : P/E : H.x50.0%
PEI - : Penn REIT : $25.7 : $13.76: $15.16 - 41.0% : 5.54% : N/A : $12.85
MAC : Macerich-- : $94.0 : $62.14: $65.05 - 30.8% : 4.37% : 92.9 : $47.00

 

To me, this looks like the mid-cycle correction is now underway

PEI / Pennsylvania REIT: . All-data : 5-yrs : 2-yrs : 6-mos :
PEI-Cycle_zps9ifyxsaf.gif

 

The Gallery - a three-block-long shopping mall in Philadelphia's Center City


Pennsylvania Real Estate Investment Trust (PEI) ... All-data : 5-yrs : 2-yrs : 6-mos :

PEI-all_zpsrgimfag2.gif

PEI-5yrs_zpsqsrgo06c.gif

PREIT’s plans promise to reconnect The Gallery shopping center with the rest of Market Street. In 2014, the real estate company brought in

.
Macerich (MAK) ... All : 5-yrs : 2yrs : 6-mos , the third-largest publicly traded mall company in America, has a 50% interest in The Gallery.
Mac-all_zps9mr1obvk.gif

Construction is estimated to (cost over $1 billion, and) take at least two years, and completion is expected in late 2018 or early 2019.

== ==

 

PEI : Invests in retail shopping malls and power centers especially in the eastern United States. Based in Philadelphia : website

 

MAK : Owns and operates regional shopping malls, mainly in the western US.: website

 

THIS may be why:

 

"Something Snapped": US Department Store Sales Crash Most On Record

On the other hand, one particular chart revealed in the latest monthly Bank of America debit and credit card spending report shows that things may be about to get a whole lot worse for America's department stores, as well as malls where they are for the most part the anchor tenants. Of note: while official US retail sales data will be released tomorrow (BofA data always comes several days ahead of the official release), what is especially ominous is that the collapse in department store spending was the biggest on record:

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/03/06/bigger%20short_0.jpg
bigger%20short_0.jpg

 

Breaking down the headline number into components shows a notable decline across virtually all subsegments, with the exception of Cruise Ships (clearly not a concern for much of middle-class America), Home improvement stores and Home goods. Everything else was flat to down substantially.

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/03/06/sector%20level%20sales_0_0.jpg
sector%20level%20sales_0_0.jpg

To be sure, Bank of America tries to explain the sudden February weakness with the previously documented delay in tax refunds, although that hypothesis does not conform with last week's Gallup survey according to which February Consumer spending was the highest since 2008. This is what BofA says: "We believe that a delay in tax refunds likely biased spending lower in February relative to prior years.

Comparing debit and credit card spend is a good indication since presumably usage of debit cards should be more sensitive to the tax refund (proxy for cash) than credit cards (leverage). Indeed, we found that retail sales ex-autos for debit cards declined 1.7% mom while credit card spending was up 1.8% mom. The second test we looked at was by income cohort -- the tax changes are more likely to impact the lower income households given that the EITC and ACTC are aimed at assisting lower-income households. We see this clearly in our data where the lowest income quintile reduced spending by 3.4% while the highest income quintile actually increased spending by 0.9% mom. We combine these two factors in the Chart of the Month to show weaker debit card spending, particularly for lower income households.

==

> more: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-14/something-snapped-us-department-store-sales-crash-most-record

 

> NEW thread: Philadelphia related Equities: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=21415

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

STILL WAITING for a Sell signal on stocks - Using TZA, IWM

 

TZA (3x Bear on Russell) ... 2-yrs

 

TZA-2yr_zpsqbn5kxdp.gif

 

IWM (etf for Russell 2000) ... 2-yrs :

 

IWM-2yr_zpslhz7nt2h.gif

 

 

Yes, a correction is coming — but don’t make this common mistake: Technical analyst17 Apr 2017 | ETCNBC.com

The S&P 500 may be less than 3 percent away from the record highs it hit at the beginning of March, but a close examination of the charts reveals several pieces of evidence that the recent decline is likely to continue.

 

For starters, the yield on the 10-year note continues to slide. On Friday, it broke below its four-month range of 2.6 percent to 2.3 percent.

Second, the U.S. dollar/Japanese yen that we've been harping on recently did indeed follow its recent "lower-high" with a "lower-low" last week. As we have said many times in the past, the dollar/yen is a key indicator for the carry trade, in which investors borrow one currency (here, the yen) at a lower interest rate in order to buy another currency with a higher rate (the dollar). As the dollar continues to fall against the yen, those who are in this trade lose money, and the trade becomes less attractive — which, in turn, leaves less liquidity sloshing around in U.S. markets.

 

Another concern we raised recently is the potential that the SOX semiconductor index had become vulnerable. Sure enough, the SOX fell almost 5 percent last week, but more importantly, it broke below its 50-day moving average, which had been very good support for the index since last June. It now stands 2.5 percent below that line, so this would be considered a meaningful break of that moving average. At this point, if the SOX fails to bounce back quickly and strongly, it's going to be quite negative for the group. And if you're wondering why this matters, just remember that the semiconductor group has been a key leader in the post-election rally.

Speaking of tech, the broader XLK tech ETF also broke below its 50-day moving average last week, but only by a very small amount. If this index follows the SOX lower, it's going to take away an important leg in the bullish stool for the stock market.

 

Having said all this, we want to be crystal clear: We are not calling for a repeat of 2008 by any means. Pullbacks and corrections are normal and healthy. Since the 2009 lows, we've seen a pullback of at least 7 percent in every year since then — and in most of those years (2010, 2011, 2012, 2015 and 2016) we've seen official corrections of 10 percent or more. And yet the stock market has still been able to rally more than 240 percent from its 2009 lows.

In other words, you should stop worrying about whether pullbacks will happen, because we already know that they will. Instead, you should focus on how to take advantage of the next drop, so that you know what to do once it takes place.

==

> http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/17/a-correction-is-coming-but-dont-make-this-mistake-technical-analyst.html

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Analyst Who Predicted Trump’s Ascendancy Bets on Le Pen Win

by Sid Verma

April 21, 2017
  • Undecided voters bad news for Macron, says GaveKal’s founder
  • Recommends overweight sterling, large-caps; bond shorts

How Will Markets React to Elections in France?

Don’t bank on a relief rally in the euro area anytime soon.

Markets are underpricing the prospect of Marine Le Pen emerging victorious in the French election as a sea of undecided voters throws into sharp relief pronounced apathy for center-leftist Emmanuel Macron -- the front-runner by a whisker -- and the backlash against the European Union project.

800x-1.png

That’s the conclusion drawn by Charles Gave, founder of Hong-Kong based asset-allocation consultancy GaveKal Research, who predicted the triumph of Donald Trump in the U.S. election, and is now betting on a win for the anti-euro National Front candidate.

“Le Pen’s momentum is a slow-moving reaction against the men of Davos -- as we have seen with Brexit and Trump -- but markets don’t want to believe it,” he said by phone before the first round of the French poll on April 23.

Given the prospect of a Le Pen victory, Gave, who has been researching tactical asset allocation for more than 40 years, is advising clients to adopt long positioning in the pound as the U.K. would benefit from haven bids, and shorts on inflation-linked German bonds amid the risk of deflation in the euro area.

==

> more: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-04-21/analyst-who-predicted-trump-ascendancy-is-betting-on-le-pen-win

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The important thing now is that MLP made it into the runoff

 

Step one

France faces its own EU referendum as far-right Europhobe Marine Le Pen and independent centrist Emmanuel Macron beat two main parties to go head to head in presidential elections after tight vote

  • France could face 'Frexit' after far-right leader Marine Le Pen came second place ahead of election
  • Le Pen and independent centrist Emmanuel Macron beat two main parties to go head-to-head on May 7
  • Republican candidate Francois Fillon conceded after he and far-left leader Jean-Luc Melenchon got 19.5%
  • A polling station in Eastern France was forced to close as bomb squad was deployed to deal with a vehicle
  • The worrying incident comes after a deadly ISIS gun attack on the Champs-Elysees in Paris on Thursday

 

Step two

I had a Dream - the globalists will soon learn they are not as powerful as they think - their protections are eroding

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Huffington Post Writer Suggests Stripping Men of Voting Rights

Apr 14, 2017 Source: breitbart.com

The South African edition of left wing media site The Huffington Post has published an opinion piece accusing white men of being a retrograde force in politics and calling for the vote to be withdrawn from the racial gender group as a means to advance the “progressive cause”.

 

Writing on the potential to run down the political and social influence of “toxic white males” by withdrawing their right to the ballot, Huffington Post contributor Shelley Garland — who describes herself as an “activist and a feminist” student who is “working on ways to smash the patriarchy” —says the change only need be enacted for 20 to 30 years or so. This period would “go some way to seeing a decline in the influence of reactionary and neo-liberal ideology in the world”.

 

Blaming white males for “Some of the biggest blows to the progressive cause in the past year” including Brexit and the election of President Donald Trump, Garland’s apparently serious piece claimed just a couple of decades of white men being excluded from elections could see such progressive leaps forward as the collapse of Western law and capitalism, and a massive redistribution of wealth from “toxic white masculinity” through “expropriation of these various assets”.

Among the charges laid at the feet of white males by the author are the 2008 recession, and “500 years colonialism, slavery, and various aggressive wars and genocides”.

If this was about any other group it would be the end of
@HuffingtonPost

Is It Time To Deny
#WhiteMen
The
#Vote
?
https://t.co/de5QnvEdgt

— Ben Harris-Quinney (@B_HQ)
April 13, 2017

==

The extremely sexist and racist nature of the piece has been noted by many on social media. Ben Harris-Quinney, chairman of Britain’s oldest Conservative think tank The Bow Group, took to Twitter to suggest that had the piece targeted any other minority group as opposed to white males, it would “be the end” of the online publication.

==

> https://redice.tv/news/huffington-post-writer-suggests-stripping-men-of-voting-rights

 

We need to get our act together and CRUSH anti-white-male bigotry whenever she rears her ugly head

 

shelley.jpg

Shelley Garland

Is this a man in drag?

“working on ways to smash the patriarchy”

I reckon she could take a few counter-arguments on the road to "smashing the patriarchy"

 

Perhaps closing down Huffpost, and causing her to lose her job might be a decent start

 

"is this a man in drag?"

The story has been revealed as a Fake, and Huffpost fell for it.

Unfortunately the GUY who penned it has now been fired

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(In answer to a Question on the PH Bubble thread):

 

Is there a "massive built up of private debt" in PH?

 

No!

Philippines Public debt, owed externally, is falling - as a Percentage of GDP.philippines-government-debt-to-gdp.png?s

 

I think that private debt in the PH banking system is growing at about 15-20% per annum, which is almost double the nominal growth of 8-10%.

If i find a chart of private debt, i will post it here

=======================

 

Household debt - US and several Asian countries (but not PH)

 

Special_Figure1.jpg

 

Malaysia might have a problem (2013 data) -especially since oil prices have dropped by 2/3rds in USD terms

 

Household-Debt-to-Disposable-Income-2.jp

 

Old data (2013); and it shows PH Household Debt down at 6%, up from 5% in 2010

PH-HHDtoGDP_zpsk1yjwu67.png

 

A minority of Filipinos even have bank accounts, and so it is not easy for most citizens to borrow at all.

Perhaps increasing sophistication explains who bank lending is climbing so fast.

 

Philippines Household Debt | Economic Indicators - CEIC

In the latest reports, Philippines's Household Debt accounted for 8.8 % of the country's Nominal GDP in Dec 2016.

Money Supply M2 in Philippines increased ...

==

> https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/philippines/household-debt

 

==
Compare with other countries:
Country tot'l 2013 / Govt.: HseHD : Total-2016

Japan------- : ???? / 250% + 62% = 312%

USA--------- : 123% / 104% + 79% = 183%
Singapore - : 105% / 105% + 62% = 167%
Euro Area-- : ????? / 91 % + 59% = 150%
Malaysia---- : 140% / 53 % + 89% = 142%
OECD aver. : 134% /
Thailand--- : ? 53% / 44 % + 71% = 115%
Hong Kong : ????? / 32 % + 67% = 99 %

China, PRC : ????? / 44 % + 43% = 87 %
Philippines : ??? / 42 % + 9 % = 51 %
Indonesia-- : 38 % / 27 % + 17% = 44 %

==========
> http://www.tradingec...kong/indicators

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Precious metals shares took a hit, while Gold climbed slightly higher

GDXJ : - 5.9%, SIL : -5.7%, GDX : -3.8%, Gold: $1289.1 + 0..05%

WTI Crude down - 6.7%, BTX up +6.45%

 

Price : (06/26) (12/31) (04/01) Chg %: (07/01) : (09/30) : (12/30) / (01/27) (02/24) (03/31) : (04/07) (04/14) : (04/21) :
Gold : 1173.8 : 1060.5 : 1223.2 === >: 1344.9 : 1317.1 : 1151.7 / 1188.4 : 1258.3 : 1251.2 : 1257.3 : 1288.5 : 1289.1 :
GLD : 112.56 : 101.46 : 116.93 ----- z : 128.41 : 125.64 : 109.61 / 113.49 : 119.70 : 118.72 : 119.46 : 122.60 : 122.31 :
GDX : $18.09 : $13.72 : $20.12 ----- z : $29.05 : $26.43 : $20.95 / $23.22 : $24.13 : $22.81 : $23.50 : $24.54 : $23.61 :
Ratio: R6.222: R7.395 : R5.811 ----- z : R4.420 : R4.754 : r5.232 / R4.888 : r4.961 : r5.205 : R5.083 : r4.996 : r5.180 (/10.54)
Ratio 16.07%: 13.52%: 17.21% ----- z : 22.62%: 21.04%: 19.11%/ 20.45% 20.16%: 19.21%: 19.67%: 20.02%: 19.30% (GDx54.6 )
Gdxj : $24.86 : $19.21 : $28.40: ----- z: $45.38 : $44.29 : $31.55 / $36.87 : $40.09 : $35.98 : $36.56 : $36.70 : $34.54 :
Spdr : 706. E : 642.37 : 815.est ----- z : 953.91 : 947.95 : 822.17 / 803.0E : 841.17 : 834.EE : 836.49 : 848.92 : 848.92 = 27.29m
Au/S : R-1.66 : R-1.65 : R- 1.52 ----- z : R-1.41 : R-1.39 : r1.401 / R1.48E: R1.496 : R1.50E : R1.503 : R1.52 : R1.519 :
TLT - : 115.23 : 120.58 : 130.68 ----- z : 140.57 : 137.51 : 119.13 / 119.63 : 122.01 : 120.71 : 120.71 : 123.47 : 123.54 :
G/Tlt : R10.19 : r8.795 : R9.404 ----- z : R9.567: R9.578 : R9.668/ R9.993 : R10.26: R10.37 : R10.42 : R10.44 : R10.43 vs L: 8.65
====
AGS : Y3,409 : y3,210 : y3,367 ----- z : y4,157 : y4,209 : y3,988 / y3,943 : y4,167 : y4,124 : y4,199 : y4,212 : y4,134 : 17.86 :
SLV- : $15.11 : $13.19 : $14.34 ----- z : $18.74 : $18.20 : $15.11 / $16.22 : $17.40 : $17.25 : $17.03 : $17.53 : $17.02 :
SLW-: $15.11 : $12.42 : $16.40 ----- z: $24.78 : $27.30 : $19.32 / $21.42 : $21.15 : $20.84 : $20.94 : $21.84 : $21.09 :
SIL*- : $26.43 : $18.51 : $26.50 ----- z : $45.95 : $44.48 : $32.11 / $37.36 : $38.28 : $36.02 : $36.92 : $38.09 : $35.93 :
DBA : $22.71 : $20.61 : $20.50 ----- z : $21.98 : $19.98 : $19.97 / $20.57 : $20.29 : $19.78 : $19.58 : $19.70 : $19.29 :
XLE- : $76.08 : $60.32 : $61.06 ----- z : $68.60 : $70.61 : $75.32 / $74.23 : $70.99 : $69.90 : $70.36 : $69.31 : $67.79 :
Cop'r: $2.641 : $2.135 : $2.170 ----- z : $2.220 : $2.210 : $2.510 / $2.690 : $2.700 : $2.652 : $2.647 : $2.570 : $2.540 :
WTI- : $59.65 : $37.07 : $36.36 ----- z : $49.28 : $48.24 : $53.72 / $53.17 : $53.99 : $50.30 : $52.24 : $53.18 : $49.62 :
CRB : 224.90 : 176.27 : 168.03 ----- z : 194.26 : 186.30 : 192.51 / 193.43 : 190.93 : 185.88 : 187.11 : 187.77 : 181.87 :
Corn : 385.00: 358.00 : 353.50 ----- z : 360.25 : 336.30 : 352.00 / 362.50 : 370.75 : 364.40 : 359.50 : 371.00 : 363.75 :
Wheat 575.00: 468.50 : 474.00 ----- z : 496.25 : 402.00 : 408.00 / 420.50 : 448.00 : 426.50 : 424.00 : 429.75 : 421.00 :
Sugar 11.92c : 15.24c : 15.18C ----- z : 20.78C : 23.00c : 19.51c / 20.33c : 19.81c : 16.76c : 16.77c : 16.70c : 16.41c :
BTC : 250.00 : $433.5 : $420.0 ----- z : $680.0 : $604.5 : $948.5 / $920.0 : 1135.0 : 1041.1 : 1188.7 : 1170.0 : 1245.5 :
B/G.: 21.30% : 40.88%: 34.34% ----- z: 50.56%: 45.90%: 82.36%/ 77.42%: 84.81%: 83.20% : 94.54% : 90.80% : 96.62% :
=====
EEM- : $39.93 : $32.19 : $34.15 ----- z : $34.69 : $37.45 : $35.01 / $37.47 : $38.48 : $39.39 : $39.37 : $39.14 : $39.29 :
FXI -- : $46.21 : $35.29 : $33.58 ----- z : $34.48 : $38.01 : $34.71 / $36.82 : $38.54 : $38.49 : $38.74 : $38.26 : $37.96 :
ShCm : 4192.9: 3519.2 : 3009.5 ----- z : 2932.5 : 3004.7 : 3103.6 / 3159.2 : 3253.4 : 3222.5 : 3286.6 : 3207.8 : 3126.8 :
PHM- : $20.48 : $17.82 : $18.42 ----- z: $19.48 : $20.04 : $18.38 / $21.26 : $21.73 : $23.55 : $23.28 : $23.71 : $23.32 :
IYR -- : $72.49 : $75.08 : $77.91 ----- z : $82.33 : $80.64 : $76.94/ $76.97 : $80.31 : $78.49 : $79.14 : $79.79 : $80.58 :
IWM - : 127.50 : 112.62 : 111.12 ----- z : 115.39 : 124.21 : 134.85 / 136.19 : 138.65 : 137.48 : 135.52 : 133.72 : 137.21 :
XLF - : $24.89 : $23.82 : $22.70 ----- z : $22.74 : $19.30 : $23.25 / $23.65 : $24.42 : $23.73 : $23.52 : $22.90 : $23.16 :
XLF/S: 11.86%: 11.68% 10.97% ----- z : 10.83% V8.92% :10.31% / 10.33%: 10.31%: 10.47%: 10.00%: 9.849% : 9.87% :
SPY- : 209.82 : 203.87 : 206.92: ----- z : 209.92 : 216.30 : 223.53 / 228.97 : 236.74 : 235.74 : 235.20 : 232.51 : 234.59 :
VIX-- : 14.02%: 18.21% 13.10%: ----- z :14.77%: 13.29%: 14.04% / 10.58%: 11.47% 10.96%: 12.87% : 15.96%: 14.63%:
ShPut $06.15 : $6.670: $05.00: ----- z : $02.85 : /Sp210: $08.30 / $20.00 : $14.95 : $13.15 : $13.52 : $16.10 : $13.49 Ja$240p
DXY - : 95.399 : 98.693 : 94.608 ----- z : 95.720 : $95.42 : 102.38 / 100.56 : $99.77 : 100.22 : 101.13 : 100.46 : $99.75 :
H-gold: r12.30 : R10.75 : r12.93 ----- z : R14.05: R13.80 : R11.25 / R11.82: R12.26: R12.56 : R12.37 : R12.83 : R12.92 / 11.3-14.2
=====
Gold : 1173.8 : 1060.5 : 1223.2 === > : 1344.9 : 1317.1 : 1151.7 / 1188.4 : 1258.3 : 1251.2 : 1257.3 : 1288.5 : 1289.1 :
======

 

This chart shows me that GDXJ (Junior Gold shares) may be headed into a Buy window

Gold-toGDXJ-65pct_zpsditg3e8d.png

 

Support looks strong at GDXJ-$32.50 - and it should be a good Buy there if Gold holds up.

You might also Buy GDXJ calls and Buy Gold puts, or use GDXJ as a replacement for Gold holdings.

It all depends on how Bullish you are - but this window looks interesting to me/

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

LAND Mines - may be awaiting Mr Macron

 

Patrick Le Brun - French Presidential Election: First Round Results

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YbLEZRJafz0

 

Now that he has been selected, the land mines can be detonated maybe

 

"All of my energy has gone to getting a 'Silver Bullet' ready" (for Mr Macron)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

×