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drbubb

Manila BAY - Will it become the Tourist & Financial Center?

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ECB posted:

Manila Bay has overtaken Ortigas Center starting 3Q2018 and we expect the reclaimed CBD to overtake other established business hubs such as Makati CBD by 2021. By then, Colliers sees the Bay Area having a total of 29,500 units, higher than Makati CBD’s 28,700.

http://www.colliers.com/en-gb/philippines/about/media/manila-likely-to-outpace-2017-condominium-sales

images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQecSOYvh6AZ5Ai4wTUiCr

MORE:

Metro Manila condominium sales remain strong despite higher inflation and the central bank’s decision to raise benchmark yields. Latest sales figures indicate that the residential market is likely to outpace condominium sales in 2017. Colliers believes that a mix of demand from offshore gaming employees and local professionals is helping sustain the Metro Manila residential market, partly driving demand for other segments such as dormitories that cater to professionals and students. In 3Q2018, we have also seen the Manila Bay Area overtaking Ortigas Center in terms of number of condominium units.

As of the first three quarters of 2018, condominium sales in the pre-selling market which covers units that are currently being constructed reached about 42,000 units, higher than the 38,000 units recorded in the same period in 2017. Given the current trend, the 2018 take up for pre-selling condominium units is likely to surpass the 53,000 units sold in Metro Manila in 2017.

For the first nine months of 2018 some 31,000 units were launched compared to 22,600 units in the same period of 2017. The central bank’s decision to raise benchmark yields by 150 basis points so far in 2018 has not deterred developers from launching new projects across Metro Manila.

To seize opportunities in the sector, Colliers recommends that developers pursue more projects in the peripheries of established business districts; tap the rising demand for worker housing; tie up with the government for the skills upgrading of construction workers; push for the entry of 100% foreign-owned contractors; and be more flexible to the residential demand of offshore gaming operators.

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That is a lot of Flats.

Hard to find anyone working in Makati who would want to live in Manila Bay, given the transport challenge.

So who will?

Rental demand has been fueled by POGO's and some tourist trade.  Will that continue to grow?

We will see

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(MORE - these are my own comments from a Viber chat):

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I have been wrong about Shore before - under-estimating Rental demand there. I think it might have something to do with the double-shifting and triple-shifting in the BPOs/POGOs there. But I remain a non-fan of Manila Bay, because I never hear Pinoys speaking of that area with enthusiasm, The mainland Chinese who live there may get bored with the RR's and concrete sameness of the place. I have a poster on my Makati Prime website, ECB, who remains a key fan, and likes reminding me of my Bear Call on MBay when the strong rental rates come in

+

I have been hearing some reports than Chinese employers are moving from Manila Bay to (cheaper) Alabang. So be alert to that. MBay fan ECB calls BGC : Better Go > C (ie to the seaside) Mainlanders are not really liking BGC, They prefer Makati & what I call "little China"

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I value the guy's comments.  ECB has been more bullish than me in what has been a Bullish market. I think his investments were Enhanced greatly by the China Invasion. But nothing wrong with that

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https://www.bworldonline.com/why-luxury-condo-prices-continue-to-soar-in-phl/?fbclid=IwAR1dUpQv3tsh0kNvDl1CRYyrr6wsYB1MyJs_0RDLSud2PczaBy7dfA82Ewg

“Yes, we look at how expensive it is now but remember how many millionaires, billionaires are being created because of China investing here. I know so many people who have been trying to sell their property for year they couldn’t sell, then all of a sudden the Chinese nationals come here, increase the value of the property and all of a sudden they went from very poor to being millionaires overnight,” Mr. Leechiu told BusinessWorld. 

 (comment: must be PHP billionaires, since we have yet to see the first USD billionaire from this speculation)

 

https://www.manilatimes.net/rising-pogo-demand-to-hike-property-prices/527587/?fbclid=IwAR2PtH0cZ1_UF11sESMts3JpJMLUDMugdk-aDkSJHm-FygTtu1avuSQlrGQ

""LPC President David Leechiu told a news briefing in Makati City on Monday that he was expecting a deficit in condominium units beginning the second semester of the year amid strong demand from property buyers, particularly from mainland Chinese employed by the local POGO business..""

 

Dr Bubb, how can you have a deficit in condominium units when the supply will almost double in the Bay Area in a few years time, and it is happening now, with approx. 3K to 4K units turned over every quarter since the end of last year and continuing into early 2020???

I thought there would be a deficit in BUYERS, as the few who couldn't get loans would be forced to sell their units at cost or even lower, and drive the overall price lower, but it is not happening.

If the deficit will be severe the 2H of 2019, how bad will it be in 2-3 years when the supply increase will be over?

 

And how is SMDC able to sell its SAIL residences at such lofty prices? The supply increase is BRUTAL now. The first prices I have seen are for approximately 10M for a 33sqm unit (SAIL residences), that's close to PHP300K per square meter.

They must be targeting "drunken" sailors. When will the madness stop? When will the market run out of "greater fools"???

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""However, Lobien cited key risks that may hamper demand. These include higher borrowing rates following the 175-basis point hike in interest rates last year, out of sync supply and demand, and the lack of infrastructure to support property developments""

https://www.manilatimes.net/property-firm-bullish-on-domestic-market/522134/?fbclid=IwAR2wiMDi9j1oPrxrQ9AUj5wW5xWjxQeURTPGdACDTNp_fjiHeRMaInIar3w

 

And another warning. "Out of sync supply and demand"

How you can you have a deficit in residential units when you increase its supply 100pct in 2 years??? 

When you increase the supply this much, there's a bigger risk for "abundance" and "too much supply". A surplus of units and a deficit in buyers/tenants.

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How you can you have a deficit in residential units when you increase its supply 100pct in 2 years??? 

The new condos- many are not yet turned over.

And many are occupied by Chinese workers and tourists

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