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drbubb

DrBubb's Diary - Mar. 2017 Trading - v.98

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The WEEK OF TRUMP

 

=== ===

 

Remember the date of March 13, 2017. It was the day President Trump was guaranteed his re-election and Republican congressional gains in 2018 and 2020.

It's not complicated. Follow along.

The Congressional Budget Office released its study of Trump and Paul Ryan's plan to repeal Obamacare and begin to reform our healthcare system. It had many numbers. Only two mattered: taxes and spending.

CBO announced that the repeal bill reduces taxes by almost $900 billion and reduces federal spending by $1.2 trillion over the next decade. This reduces deficit spending by $300 billion over the next 10 years. Thus the CBO, as official umpire, announced that the GOP Obamacare repeal plan may be enacted through "reconciliation," the process that requires a simple majority in the House and only 51 votes in the Senate. No filibuster allowed.

Perhaps equally important, the $300 billion in deficit reduction gives Republicans a great deal of wiggle room to amend their basic plan to win votes in the House and Senate to win those 218 congressmen and 51 senators. Tax cuts can be added into the mix. Thanks to the CBO score and the underlying power of the legislation, Obamacare repeal will now pass. The path is clear.

Yes, Democrats tried to focus on the CBO's guestimate as to how many Americans would choose to buy Obamacare insurance without the threat of fines and taxes. Answer: very few. This speaks to how unattractive Obamacare insurance products were and are.

The GOP legislation empowers, strengthens, and expands Health Savings Accounts and other consumer-directed tools such as Flexible Spending Accounts, and creates high-risk pools to take care of those with pre-existing conditions without burdening all other insurance buyers with those costs. Tax credits will help lower-income Americans afford the insurance they want.

. . .

The residential move, from London to Los Angeles, is more nuanced. Having spent the better part of a year in Los Angeles because of the film, he was reminded of the appeal of sunshine after 18 years in “dark London.” That move is a homecoming of sorts, a concept that appeals to Ford now more than ever, as a family man who’s admittedly no spring chicken himself. “I grew up in the American West. The older I get, the more pulled back I am to a more rural…” perhaps conjuring images of his soon-to-be-residence, he rethinks “rural” “…I need sunshine. L.A. is the least city of all cities.” His parents live on the West Coast, as does his sister and her children. “Jack has a family there. A lot of it is personal.”

The presidential election also impacted Ford’s decision to move, surprisingly so. Unlike those celebrities who vowed in its lead-up to leave the country if Donald Trump won, Ford found an opposite pull. “Oddly, it made me want to come back even more,” he notes. “We have a tremendous number of people in this country who feel disenfranchised and clearly we are not relating to or speaking to them. I am at my core American, and it made me want to come back. It didn’t make me want to run away.

“I think when you sense that there is a divide in your country and that there are people who perhaps you’re not relating to, and that those of us who are fortunate enough to live in a world of very liberal human rights and privilege, it’s a wake-up call that we’re not addressing a big part of the country that does feel disenfranchised. It made me feel more nationalistic, if anything. The whole country is not like New York and L.A. and the world that I am used to living in.”

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==========
Price : (06/26) (12/31) (04/01) Chg %: (07/01) : (09/30) : (12/30) / (01/27) (02/24) (03/03) (03/10): (03/17)
Gold : 1173.8 : 1060.5 : 1223.2 === >: 1344.9 : 1317.1 : 1151.7 / 1188.4 : 1258.3 : 1226.5 : 1201.4 : 1230.4 :
GLD : 112.56 : 101.46 : 116.93 ----- z : 128.41 : 125.64 : 109.61 / 113.49 : 119.70 : 117.51 : 114.72 : 116.99 :
GDX : $18.09 : $13.72 : $20.12 ----- z : $29.05 : $26.43 : $20.95 / $23.22 : $24.13 : $22.20 : $21.73 : $22.67 :
Ratio: R6.222: R7.395 : R5.811 ----- z : R4.420 : R4.754 : r5.232 / R4.888 : r4.961 : r5.293 : R5.279 : r5.161 (/10.?7)
Ratio 16.07%: 13.52%: 17.21% ----- z : 22.62%: 21.04%: 19.11%/ 20.45% 20.16%: 18.89% 18.94%: 19.38% (GDx54.27 )
Gdxj : $24.86 : $19.21 : $28.40: ----- z: $45.38 : $44.29 : $31.55 / $36.87 : $40.09 : $35.53 : $34.69 : $36.28 :
Spdr : 706. E : 642.37 : 815.est ----- z : 953.91 : 947.95 : 822.17 / 803.0E : 841.17 : 840.58 : 825.22 : 834.10 = 26.82m
Au/S : R-1.66 : R-1.65 : R- 1.52 ----- z : R-1.41 : R-1.39 : r1.401 / R1.48E: R1.496 : R1.47 : R1.456 : R1.475 :
TLT - : 115.23 : 120.58 : 130.68 ----- z : 140.57 : 137.51 : 119.13 / 119.63 : 122.01 : 119.35 : 117.25 : 118.64 :
G/Tlt : R10.19 : r8.795 : R9.404 ----- z : R9.567: R9.578 : R9.668/ R9.993 : R10.26: R10.28: R10.25 : R10.37 vs L: 8.65
====
AGS : Y3,409 : y3,210 : y3,367 ----- z : y4,157 : y4,209 : y0,000 /y0.000 : y0,000 : y0,000 : y0.000 : y0,000 :17.74 :
SLV- : $15.11 : $13.19 : $14.34 ----- z : $18.74 : $18.20 : $15.11 / $16.22 : $17.40 : $16.98 : $16.15 : $16.47 :
SLW-: $15.11 : $12.42 : $16.40 ----- z: $24.78 : $27.30 : $19.32 / $21.42 : $21.15 : $19.44 : $19.30 : $19.90 :
SIL*- : $26.43 : $18.51 : $26.50 ----- z : $45.95 : $44.48 : $32.11 / $37.36 : $38.28 : $35.19 : $33.50 : $35.11 :
DBA : $22.71 : $20.61 : $20.50 ----- z : $21.98 : $19.98 : $19.97 / $20.57 : $20.29 : $20.32 : $19.98 : $20.15 :
XLE- : $76.08 : $60.32 : $61.06 ----- z : $68.60 : $70.61 : $75.32 / $74.23 : $70.99 : $71.99 : $70.01 : $69.80 :
Cop'r: $2.641 : $2.135 : $2.170 ----- z : $2.220 : $2.210 : $2.510 / $2.690 : $2.700 : $2.700 : $2.600 : $2.690 :
WTI- : $59.65 : $37.07 : $36.36 ----- z : $49.28 : $48.24 : $53.72 / $53.17 : $53.99 : $53.33 : $48.49 : $49.31 :
CRB : 224.90 : 176.27 : 168.03 ----- z : 194.26 : 186.30 : 192.51 / 193.43 : 190.93 : 189.72 : 182.65 : 184.48 :
Corn : 385.00: 358.00 : 353.50 ----- z : 360.25 : 336.30 : 352.00 / 362.50 : 370.75 : 380.75 : 364.25 : 367.50 :
Wheat 575.00: 468.50 : 474.00 ----- z : 496.25 : 402.00 : 408.00 / 420.50 : 448.00 : 453.50 : 440.50 : 436.25 :
Sugar 11.92c : 15.24c : 15.18C ----- z : 20.78C : 23.00c : 19.51c / 20.33c : 19.81c : 19.52c : 18.22c : 18.17c :
BTC : 250.00 : $433.5 : $420.0 ----- z : $680.0 : $604.5 : $948.5 / $920.0 : 1135.0 : 1278.0 : 1151.0 : 1---
B/G.: 21.30% : 40.88%: 34.34% ----- z: 50.56%: 45.90%: 82.36%/ 77.42%: 84.81%: 90.20% : 104.1% : 00 /17-98%
====
EEM- : $39.93 : $32.19 : $34.15 ----- z : $34.69 : $37.45 : $35.01 / $37.47 : $38.48 : $38.19 : $38.01 : $39.49 :
FXI -- : $46.21 : $35.29 : $33.58 ----- z : $34.48 : $38.01 : $34.71 / $36.82 : $38.54 : $37.87 : $37.65 : $39.14 :
ShCm : 4192.9: 3519.2 : 3009.5 ----- z : 2932.5 : 3004.7 : 3103.6 / 3159.2 : 3253.4 : 3218.3 : 3212.8 : 3237.4 :
PHM- : $20.48 : $17.82 : $18.42 ----- z: $19.48 : $20.04 : $18.38 / $21.26 : $21.73 : $22.48 : $23.53 : $23.72 :
IYR -- : $72.49 : $75.08 : $77.91 ----- z : $82.33 : $80.64 : $76.94 / $76.97 :$80.31 : $79.64 : $76.54 : $78.20 :
IWM - : 127.50 : 112.62 : 111.12 ----- z : 115.39 : 124.21 : 134.85 / 136.19 : 138.65 : 138.65 : 135.96 : 138.46 :
XLF - : $24.89 : $23.82 : $22.70 ----- z: $22.74 : $19.30 : $23.25 / $23.65 : $24.42 : $24.97 : $24.79 : $24.45 :
XLF/S: 11.86%: 11.68% 10.97% ----- z : 10.83% V8.92%:10.31% / 10.33%: 10.31%: 10.47% : 10.43% : 10.32%
SPY- : 209.82 : 203.87 : 206.92: ----- z : 209.92 : 216.30 : 223.53 / 228.97 : 236.74 : 238.42 : 237.69 : 237.03 :
VIX-- : 14.02%: 18.21% 13.10%: ----- z : 14.77%: 13.29%: 14.04%/ 10.58%: 11.47%: 10.96%: 11.66%: 11.28%:
ShPut $06.15 : $6.670: $05.00: ----- z : $02.85 : /Sp210: $08.30 / $20.00 : $14.95 : $13.97 : $14.10 : $13.39 - Ja$240p
DXY - : 95.399 : 98.693 : 94.608 ----- z : 95.720 : $95.42 : 102.38 / 100.56 : 101.09 : 101.34 : 101.38 : 100.31 :
H-gold: r12.30 : R10.75 : r12.93 ----- z : R14.05: R13.80 : R11.25 / R11.82: R12.26: : R12.10: R11.85: R12.27/ 11.3-14.2
=====
Gold : 1173.8 : 1060.5 : 1223.2 : === >: 1344.9 : 1317.1 : 1151.7 / 1188.4 : 1258.3 : 1226.5 : 1201.4 : 1230.4 :

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(On the 18th, I wrote):

BTX has touched $1000, and could be headed to $950 or lower

chart.png?m=bitstampUSD&v=1&t=S&noheader

 

FEAR (about a Hard Fork in BTC) may be driving the heavy liquidation.

Some started shifting into other Cryptos weeks ago

===========

 

Now, Bitcoin prices may have begun a recovery from the selloff to just below my target of $950

 

BTS ... update

 

BTC-10d_zpsvw6egmjw.png

==

/ 2 /

later: uptrend being test - decent chance it may hold, I think

BTX-10d_zpsdg0inl4l.png

==

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Philippines : Growth, shrinking debt, and some modest rate rises coming but not immediately

Property in Manila is over-built, but the counry's fundamentals still look sound.
From today's press:
+ PH Foreign debt SHRINKS to $74.8 Billion in 2016 (Manila Bulletin)
Down by 3.5% or $2.7 billion thanks to debt repayments, and $846mn of net buying of $846millon PH debt by foreigners. A weak yen also helped, since 12% of the debt is denominated in yen. The absolute number ($74.8 bn) was the lowest since 2010. The external debt ratio dropped to just 20.4 percent at year-end 2016, down from 21.9 percent, a year earlier. Such is the financial power of those millions of OFW's, Overseas Foreign Workers.
+ Analysts see two BSP rate hikes this year (Business World)
No rate rise is expected in March, and there seems to be "no urgent need for adjustment" though the trend in inflation is rising. If rates do not go up this month, it will be the 20th month in a row with no change
+ The mothballed National Steel in Iligan Cty has been acquired by SteelAsia a rebar manufacturer, who has the intention of turning it into a state of the art stell manufacturing complex. This should be an important step in creating a local PH steel industry, which will be very useful as the country upgrades its infrastructure

The latest reports on Growth were : 6.8% Real growth in 2016 - one of the highest , and 1.8% inflation. But the latest month, February, inflation was up to 3.3%, which is on the high end of the target range.

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Meantime, there's a "0% Handle on Growth in the USA"

 

Michael Pento-Stock Market Will Fall at Least 50%

 

"The Fed is a victim of its own Keynesian mantra"

"They believed they 'FIXED THINGS' by creating a Bond market bubble"

 

 

KITCO articles

 

The "Big Stick" Trump Budget Bodes Bullish For Gold Kitco CommentaryMar 17

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TOP of Page Header

 

t24_au_en_usoz_6.gif : idx24_russell_en_2.gif : idx24_hui_en_2.gif :

3d : ag : au

 

Bitcoin : The uptrend continues as money flees China:
=======
Charts: Bitcoins LIVE : BTC:1-year : 4-mos : 10d : Ticks : BtcWisdom : BTC-24hours : PB : aD : aF : aG : sjw :

chart.png?m=bitstampUSD&v=1&t=S&noheader

BTS - Frozen / Bitcoins, on Bitstamps ; 10-Days: http://tinyurl.com/bts-10d : 6-mos : 12-mos : 24-mos : 32-MOS

 

Over a week ago, I said: "Bitcoins Price may take another run at the Gold price - Now $1230"

 

BTC - 10d : 2mos : 32-months

 

BTC-2mo_zps2vegxndp.png

 

 

BTC-32mo_zpsjzyvf5kn.png

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Get DISTURBED by this

Disturbed - The Sound Of Silence [Official Music Video]

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A Classic Rant!

Stefan Molyneux talks about the Cultural hole we have crawled into

- By allowing the expansion of a government serving powerful elites and parasites

 

Winning the Culture War with President Trump: Survival Guide

 

Too many people are addicted to "free money" from the State

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No Big worries... Yet

 

SPX ... update

SPX_zpso3h6kbe2.gif

 

News comment

Blame options expiration, not politics, for stock-market pullback: analyst MarketWatch

 

Tony C:

The market gapped up at the open and looked like it was about to resume the choppy rally. But shortly after the open the market started to pullback, and when it broke Monday’s lows yesterday’s first option, an ongoing Nano wave iv, was underway. The decline was not surprising, but dropping 33 points in the first two hours was a surprise. At low of the day, SPX 2342, the market entered the 2336 pivot range for the first time in as month. This pivot should act as support. Short term support is at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance in the 2350’s and the 2385 pivot. Short term momentum displaying a slight positive divergence at the close. Trade what’s in front of you!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

==

> https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2017/03/21/tuesday-update-586/

 

Comments

mjtplayer says:

The post election rally uptrend was just broken, not a lot of support until SPY $228 (roughly 2,287 area SPX cash), which is also a .382 retrace of the entire rally

https://www.tradingview.com/x/tkKs1H3u/

 

alexh110 says:

Tomorrow marks the end of the 94 trading day cycle that was previously in the market. (The last low of that cycle was the US Election: see attached chart.)
Until today I thought that cycle was completely dead; but I now think it may herald a significant low tomorrow. (An after-echo if you like.)

(Sorry about the re-post, just interested to know what others think.)

 

https://twitter.com/alexh110/status/818080356289089541/photo/1

    • alexh110 says:

      You’re right: I mis-counted!

      • Mary773 says:

        This is my take on the cycle, alexh110. It began at the ATH on 5/20/15, and oscillates between 91-94 trading days, which means March 20-23. The market is now oversold, and the current pattern resembles the June 2016 low that bottomed on Day 94. There is substantial event risk for tomorrow; the market reversed today when it was reported that Ryancare currently lacks the votes to pass on

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Feeding The BEAST : "VANITY, thy name is Woman"

 

The Truth About Beauty and the Beast

 

I haven't gone to see it yet, but based on Stefan's commentary, I reckon I will get triggered

 

What a surprise that Emma Watson would play a woman without flaws, who succeeds thanks to her looks,

not anything great that she has actually achieved.

Oh, wait, "she's different - she reads" ... Romance Fiction (that's the female equivalent of porn - & no less dangerous)

 

Stefan Molyneus says: this is a vain woman being sold resentment. (How often have we seen that?)

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"Solar power now cheaper than coal" (in The Manila Times today)

 

Solar+Storage can be cheaper than Coal

 

+ Cost of solar farm down from $2.5mn per MW to $1mn.

+ New battery technology can make it even cheaper

 

So: "You don't need to choose between economic growth, and environmental sustainability," Leandro Leviste

 

Lowering costs in PH:

"Vertical integration is the key to making solar cheaper... the (overall) process has been very inefficient."

"We are bringing our costs closer to other markets, where solar is now P2 to P3 per kwh on average"

 

Solar Philippines has start producing solar (cells) at its state-of-th-art factory in Batangas.

The goal is to employ a thousand Filipinos, and make PH an exporter of solar panels this year

 

There is a consensus that the local market is in an oversupply situation, but SP intends to develop new markets by driving costs lower through economies of scale.

 

They recently broke ground for a 150-MW solar farm in Concepcion, Tarlac, with an estimated total investment of P7.5bn

(= USD 150mn / 150MW = $1 million per MW.)

==

> PH solar thread: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=20852

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JITTERS by the Wealthy?

 

Art market down 11% in 2016 (manila times, AFP)

 

Hong Kong's global art sales fell 11% in 2016, dragged down by "global growth slowdown, and political headwinds"

: From $63.3 bn to $58.6 billion

 

Biggest markets: US, UK, then China > together are 81% of global market

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PREDICTION of a 5% drop - may be a Buy signal

(because Gartman's track record is like that)

 

Dennis Gartman sees at least a 5% drop for stocks — and shades of Watergate

Mar 22, 2017

‘This reminds me too much of what happened in 1972 to 1974’

MW-FI653_waterg_20170322090542_ZH.jpg?uuGetty Images
victorReklaitis_100.png

By

VictorReklaitis
Markets writer

What’s next for U.S. stocks after the S&P 500 suffered its biggest percentage drop in five months?

Dennis Gartman has warned “this is the start of at least a 5% correction, and perhaps something far worse than that over time.”

“Only time shall tell, but I view it very seriously,” the publisher of the Gartman Letter said early Wednesday in a CNBC interview.

To be sure, some traders view Gartman as a contrarian indicator, noting that he turned bullish on oil around Feb. 22, and that call was followed by West Texas Intermediate crude CLK7, +0.75% dropping 11% over the past month.

But in any case, the veteran pundit has a number of reasons for being cautious toward stocks SPX, +0.19% .

“It’s not just what happened in the equities markets,” he said, as he looked at Tuesday’s action across asset classes. The S&P lost 1.2% on Tuesday and finished 2.2% below its March 1 record close.

“Gold GLD, +0.24% broke out to the upside, closing right on the highs. The bond market broke out to the upside, closing right on its highs. Base metals closed on the downside, right on their lows. Crude oil closed on the downside, right on its low. This is not just a one-off circumstance in the equities market.”

The S&P was little changed around midday Wednesday.

Check out: What’s next after the stock market’s sharp drop? Here’s what history says

==

> http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dennis-gartman-sees-at-least-a-5-drop-for-stocks-and-shades-of-watergate-2017-03-22?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts

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BUYING BITCOINS with a credit card

 

In this case: 0.524 BTC : for $50 + $1.88 fee

 

The reporter talks about the minor, but real frustrations of buying a partial Bitcoin on Coinbase,

using a Credit card - shows the screens too
no-looking-back-until-i-sell-of-course.j

 

> http://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-buy-bitcoin-using-coinbase-2017-1/#ultimately-and-frustratingly-it-was-back-to-the-desktop-so-far-the-actual-process-of-buying-bitcoin-was-simple-the-app-itself-was-my-only-nemesis-my-50-ended-up-buying-00524-of-one-bitcoin-10

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"Prior to (Duterte's election), investors had been clamoring for peso assets thanks to predecessor Benigno Aquinos structural upgrade drive. Aquinos efforts from 2010 to 2016 to increase transparency, strengthen government accountability and repair the national balance sheet won the Philippines its first ever investment grade ratings.

...The peso started this month at 10-year lows, a clear sign investors doubt the Davao City model argument. Duterte is being haunted by allegations of involvement with corruption and unlawful killings during his mayor days."

- William Pesek writing in Barrons.

 

Here "on the ground" in the country, I am hearing stories about how Duterte is LESS CORRUPT than Aquino was.

and that some minor headaches, like police stopping cars randomly and coercing money have all but stopped.

Meantime, Chinese financing of a build-out of some new rail lines, seems to be progressing.

 

I went to a art show opening the other day at the Ayala Museum, and the ribbon was cut by the governor of the Central bank (Tetango?), and then the next morning I read that the country had a bid surplus in January thanks to recprd tax collections, and they would be issuing P30 Bn Treasury notes in small denominations, in order to give retail investors a safe place to park their money (earning maybe 3-3.5% pa over three years.) It is about time that this country thought about improving financial opportunities for average people.

 

Also, despite my very real concerns about excess of supply, and falling rents, one property investor friend told me that Ayala would be raising prices by 10-15% this year on one of their projects.

 

The currency drop does not look as dramatic as Pesek claims, though it has failed to show the 2017 strength of some other non-USD currencies

 

PHP versus currencies of: Thailand, Japan, Mexico ... update

PHP-etc_zps9rlfddrw.gif

 

(The PH Peso could soon cross the 76d MA, and get a "buy" signal.

Rising inflation, at over 3%, has triggered some concerns that the BSB might raise rates.

The same day he was cutting the ribbon Tetango announce he would hold rates, and that

the central bank was cutting their inflation forecasts from 3.5% to 3.4% for the year,)

 

I don't believe much of what I read in the paper these days, and have thought that Willie Pesek is a closet globalist, aligned with the NWO

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Old friends welcome

 

May be some increased traffic here.

A certain "crash" site has got with the PC message and banned discussion of the blindingly obvious. Commercial interests cited. UK freedoms quickly being eroded in order to keep a lid on the increasing shitstorm courtesy of our global elite and their korandethal army.

Interesting times....

 

A certain "crash" site?

 

HPC, I presume.

Everyone is welcome here - we even have one or two trolls, who I have to suspend from time to time.

 

Do not expect much political correctness here, even from our trolls here

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If I had been around near the close, I would probably have bought SPY calls on Friday.

Have to sleep sometime

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Making the Human connection - to see the God in each person

 

"When I look in someone's eyes, I perceive them - I make a human connection"

 

Dr. Nick Begich: How To Break The Zombie Trance

 

Too many of our conversations are filtered through electronic media

What's the big shift?

It is the movement towards Awareness, and Full consciousness

 

"I know we win, I absolutely know we win!"

"Fearlessness comes with that"

(Then he goes on to talk about the strange disappearance and death of his congressman father,

when he was just 14 years old. He went from a C-student to a 4.0 student.)

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Weak dollar / strong gold all of a sudden / DXY: 99.48 -0.31

 

idx24_usd_en_2.gif : 12 months

 

I wonder what is driving this, in early Monday Asian trading?

If support just above 99 is taken out, we could see 98 quickly

===

 

US Dollar Report News Headlines for Today | Reuters

www.reuters.com/news/archive/usDollarRpt?date=today

 

FOREX-Dollar slips in Asia as market frets on US fiscal outlook

The U.S. dollar took a spill in early Asian trade on Monday as investors in the region fretted about the chances of U.S. fiscal stimulus following the defeat of President Donald Trump's healthcare package.

 

Reuters is part of the Lie-Stream Media, since it was Speaker Ryan's bill. not Trump's

 

 

Talking Points:

-Dollar Technical Strategy: breaking below on LT trend support, breakdown < 99 opens up downside

-Previous Post: Dollar Technical Analysis: Recent Hikes Have Led To Peaks in DXY

-Mass exodus of institutional USD Bulls in Eurodollars likely to worry DXY Bulls

...

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Free Speech - it still happens at some US universities

 

"Notre Dame is better than most.

It is my job to bring different opinions to my students"

 

Notre Dame Braces For "Controversial" Speaker - Vincent Munoz - Tucker Carlson Tonight Fox News

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fih0pd3eE2M

 

Middlebury should definitely change its name to "Middle brow" (ie above its actual: Low Brow branding)

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California Uber Alles - States in Trouble
Will California go Beyond Financial Crash (BFC)?
================================

 

Late 2016 Update:

CCA / MFS California Municipal Fund (NYSE MKT) ... update / Last: $11.36

CCA_zpsz7kgdxzm.gif

 

MYC / BlackRock MuniYield California Fund Inc. (NYSE) ... update / Last: $15.38

MYC-MuniDebt-CA_zps5anxjfas.gif

/ 2 /

TRACK the Fears of CA Default - with this chart

 

CCA (Calif. Fund) versus TLT (Bonds) and IYR (Real Estate) ... update

CCA-etc_zpsrkwdsj70.gif

=== ===

 

Update : CCA (Calif. Fund) versus TLT (Bonds) and IYR (Real Estate) ... update

CCA-etc_zpsnlzfhgwx.gif

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If I had been around near the close, I would probably have bought SPY calls on Friday.

Have to sleep sometime

 

Tony C:

SHORT TERM

Our short term count suggests the SPX is currently in a Nano iv pullback, of Micro 3, of Minute iii. Our short term count for the DOW suggests the market is currently in a Micro 4 pullback of Minute iii. Considering the length and depth of the pullback we tend to prefer the DOW count. When this pullback concludes, if it hasn’t already, we expect a rally to new highs to complete Minute wave iii. Then after another pullback for Minute iv, a Minute v rally to complete the entire uptrend. Not much wiggle room on the downside left. If this uptrend is going to resume, as expected, it will have to occur next week.

spxhourly3.png?w=640&h=485

 

Short term support is at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance in the mid-2350’s and the 2385 pivot. Short term momentum ended the week oversold. Best to your trading!

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> https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2017/03/25/weekend-update-597/

 

Comments:

bouraq says:

Chart of the weekend is $ES at http://www.tradingchannels.uk

kng4Vss.png

pooch77 says:

Jeffery Sault looking for more down on Monday.This is for Fiona,check cnbc

 

alexh110 says:

Seems like a very good technical setup for a rally:

94 trading day cycle ends tomorrow, which should mark a significant low (if it hasn’t already occurred on Friday).

Weekly RSI has fallen back to neutral, as it did during the minute iii uptrend of 2013. RSI topped out at a similar level that year, then fell back to neutral, before rallying back to overbought (high 80s) to finish off minute iii. I expect to see a similar rally this time, lasting 4-5 weeks, at least 150 points, possibly 250.

(N.B. 2009, 2010 and 2012 had similar weekly RSI rebounds from neutral, following a pullback from extreme overbought conditions.)

We also have positive divergences on daily and hourly RSI.

alexh110 says:

Also forgot to mention, SPX has fallen back almost to weekly EMA13, which it did at this stage during the minute iii wave of 2013.

 

Francesca Ciardi says:

I do stand with Tony saying the downtrend may have already ended. Friday last hour the sign were all with it. The bulls seams having trapped the bears at the low. The tick reading have confirmed this with a serious low ticking in the last part of the day and the immediate resumption of a rally even as small that could have been in the last few minutes but was in low ticking. A classic Friday evening trap for all bear stacking. Monday will be gap up and go.

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learnedmylesson25 says:

http://www.safehaven.com/author/37/didier-sornette
I had never heard of Sornette,but did some Googling and he apparently has been researching stock market crashes and movements for a very long time.It’s an academic,intellectual view on the theories behind bubbles and crashes.I’m not sure if Sornette is still in the predicting business or not.Trader Moe mentioned Sornette because he believed there were particular algos that preceded either a stock surge or crash.This,I assume is Moe’s interpretation,gleaned from Sornette.

 

learnedmylesson25 says:

sornette-3-24-17.jpg

MOE analysis…explained (especially for page).
ES took a serious stab at the blue megaphone VWAP at 2362 yesterday. That’s all it needed to complete a top here and break out downwards past Tuesday’s low with an initial target of 2150.

But that serious stab at the blue megaphone VWAP put a potential Sornette melt-up set-up on the chart (inside red box). Sornette melt-up set-ups typically break out upwards with a double bobble (purple scenario) that could break ES out through 2362 for a melt-up to the blue megaphone top and new all-time highs.

Sornette melt-up set-ups that fail usually fail in the second bobble when the price takes out the low of the first bobble. But you can’t count on getting a second bobble. Sometimes the only place you can see a second bobble is on a two-minute chart.

If the Sornette melt-up triggers, the melt-up would usually take the form of either a series of price channels or a rising megaphone.

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Selling Pressure in stocks

 

S&P

-16.55 / -0.71% Level 2,328.25 Fair Value 2,340.45 Difference -12.20

 

World Markets » ------- Level % Change

Nikkei 225 Japan -------18,972.95 -1.50%

Hang Seng Hong Kong 24,291.02 -0.28%

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>http://money.cnn.com/data/premarket/

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