Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
drbubb

Shorting BANK stocks

Recommended Posts

Shorting BANK stocks

 

This is probably too early, but it is not too soon to start contemplating which stocks to short and at what possible levels

(And also what instruments to use, such as Put options)

 

XLF / Financial stock etf ... All-data : 10-yr : 5-yr : 2-yr : 6-mos / 10-d : $23.37 -0.24 : -1.02%

 

XLF-all_zps3ctu5afg.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

SHORTING Bank Shares - JPM

 

The chart of JPM shows an amazing symmetry since the 2009 Low - and could be topping now

 

JPM ... 10-yrs : 5-yrs : 2-yrs : 6-mos / 10-d : Last: $86.50 -0.63 : -0.72%

JPM_zpsdvcng6hq.gif

 

Jul.2017 $85 Put ... update : Last: $5.70 +0.25

JPM-Jul85P_zpsb21rry8i.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Tony C's count for XLF, is similar to mine for JPM, It turns out

 

> http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp/3

 

XLF-TonyC_zpsq10flvxe.png

 

But a wave 3 (of V) may not be done: expected Pivots are: xx

And wave 5 (V) is still ahead

 

He calls XLF a leading sector, so it may peak out before SPX.

This shows his much more Bullish count for SPX: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp/1

 

> Tony Caldaro's blog: http://caldaro.wordpress.com/

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Green Line chart for XLE, show RS-95 - a Massive reading (found usually only in 3rd waves)

XLF-GreenL_zpslrabkpnc.png

 

> update: http://stockcharts.com/public/1107832/tenpp/1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Stocks may be just one last wave away from an important top

 

from JK's website ... update

spx-wave5_zpsv8qgierv.png

 

here's iwm ... update

IWM_zpsssyuwc8v.png

 

Ratio: RUT -to-TLT
RUT-toTLT_zpstbky6bxu.png

 

TZA / 3x bear etf for RUT and IWM ... 10-yr : 5-yr : 2-yr : 6-mos / 10-d : RUT-10d : IWM-10d : VIX-10d :

TZA-2yr_zpswy1mg9ed.gif

 

============
5 Ways to play

Index : Last : Opt- Mo.Strike: Price : %-$Pr. : "ATM" : %-U/ly. : x 2-- : /40%
VIX- : 11.70%
SPY : 226.40 : Put - Apr. 226 : $5.97 : 2.64% / $6.17 : 2.73% : 5.46% : 13.7%
IWM : 136.19 : Put - Apr. 136. : $5.46 : 4.01% / $5.56 : 4.09% : 8.18% : 20.4%
TZA : $19.26 : Call - Apr. $17 : $3.33 : 17.3% / $2.33 : 12.3% : 24.5% : 61.3%
XLF : $23.46 : Put - Apr. $24 : $1.24 : 5.29% / $1.00 : 4.16% : 8.32% : 20.8%
FAZ : $20.80 : Call - Apr. $18 : $4.00 : 19.2% / $2.50 : 12.0% : 24.0% : 60.1%

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks

XLF : chart

-Looks like it should hit $25.00, and maybe higher.

Now about $24.50

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

"This Is Probably Just The Beginning" - Chinese Banks Are In Big Trouble

 

20170523_SHIBOR.jpg

That's not supposed to happen...

 

(Funding squeeze! Banks will avoid lending.)

 

ith the crackdown on financial system leverage underway, Chinese banks (and securities firms) are in big trouble. As we noted previously, China's bond curve is inverted, yields are surging, and Chinese regulatory decisions shutting down various shadow-banking pipelines has crushed securities firms' stocks. However, as Bloomberg points out, as China’s deleveraging efforts cut into banks’ profit margins, rising base funding costs and interbank credit risk concerns have pushed banks' cost of borrowing beyond the rate they charge customers for loans for the first time in history.

20170523_SHIBOR_0.jpg

As the chart above shows, the one-year Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate has exceeded the Loan Prime Rate, the first time this has happened since the latter was introduced in 2013.

“This is probably just the beginning” and interbank funding costs will rise further amid the drive to reduce leverage, said Xu Hanfei, chief fixed-income analyst at China Merchants Securities Co. in Shanghai.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

×