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French Pres Election 2017:Brexit,Trump,Le Pen?

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Wilders looks a shoe in at the moment.Very motivated set of voters,lined up against a wilting ruling class.

 

His party are 1.47 on BF at the moment with the nearest challenger, WD, at 3.5. The market isn't very big at the moment but I'm guessing it will grow after Christmas.

 

I thought Hofer would win, but he got a big % of the votes. 10 years ago that would have been unthinkable.

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Looks like Fillon is Hillary-Lite. If this does damage Fillon enough that Macron makes it to the 2nd round at this expense, it could be goof for Le Pen. Fillon's policies are closer to Le Pen's so people who saw her as too extreme could've gone over to him, but if it's Macron he isn't really close to Le Pen in terms of policy. Will people turn away from him and towards Le Pen as they feel they have no choice?

 

Maybe it turns out to be nothing and Fillon rides it out but it's got a bit more interesting now.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/759012/Le-Pen-Fillion-faces-campaign-ruin-over-payments-to-wife-Penelope-France-public-money

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Trump influence is going global

 

TRUMPBLITZ - Total Domination of newsflow

 

The New president has set a blistering pace... in a once slow washington

 

Kurtz: Trump’s tweetstorm tenure

 

... he is already meeting teresa may

 

UK ambassador to US: British anxious to work with

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Looks like Fillon is Hillary-Lite. If this does damage Fillon enough that Macron makes it to the 2nd round at this expense, it could be goof for Le Pen. Fillon's policies are closer to Le Pen's so people who saw her as too extreme could've gone over to him, but if it's Macron he isn't really close to Le Pen in terms of policy. Will people turn away from him and towards Le Pen as they feel they have no choice?

 

Maybe it turns out to be nothing and Fillon rides it out but it's got a bit more interesting now.

 

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/759012/Le-Pen-Fillion-faces-campaign-ruin-over-payments-to-wife-Penelope-France-public-money

His odds moved out to 2.1 on BF briefly.

 

Back down at 2.He was 1.8.

 

From a betting perspective,I think there's real value in him at these levels but time will tell.

 

I think le Pen has just too much to do in the second round leaving you with Fillon or macron.

 

Macron has no ground game and at the saem time Fillon is raising the rhetoric to keep his harder line voter.s

 

I think this will be a fascinating election.

 

Personally,I think le Pen or her niece will win in 2022.

 

Wilders looking good to go in Holland.

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Looks like Fillon is Hillary-Lite. If this does damage Fillon enough that Macron makes it to the 2nd round at this expense, it could be goof for Le Pen. Fillon's policies are closer to Le Pen's so people who saw her as too extreme could've gone over to him, but if it's Macron he isn't really close to Le Pen in terms of policy. Will people turn away from him and towards Le Pen as they feel they have no choice?

 

Maybe it turns out to be nothing and Fillon rides it out but it's got a bit more interesting now.

 

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/759012/Le-Pen-Fillion-faces-campaign-ruin-over-payments-to-wife-Penelope-France-public-money

Just up after a night shift.

http://www.breitbart.com/london/2017/01/27/le-pen-french-presidential-rival-will-withdraw-charged-wifes-fake-job/

This news has moved him out to 2.3

 

I suspect he's already had legal guidance that he won't be charged.When you look at what the French have elected in the pastemploying your wife,even if on generous terms,is nothing on Chirac.

 

If he gets charged then the race will get even more interesting.

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Odds have moved out on Fillon to 2.8.

 

Macron favourite at 2.66.

 

http://www.france24.com/en/20170128-inquiry-french-presidential-hopeful-francois-fillon-penelope-fake-jobs-widens

 

I think Macrons too short now.He's an establishment patsy if ever there was one

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/emmanuel-macron-marine-le-pen-french-elections-donald-tump-a7540591.html

 

'There is another striking characteristic of Macron’s candidature. He presents himself as the anti-system candidate, yet in terms of education and career he is a perfect example of the French elites. He resembles a duke criticising the aristocracy.

Thus he attended the highly regarded Lycée Henri-IV school in Paris. He did a degree in public affairs at Sciences Po in the same city, whose nearest British equivalent is the London School of Economics. Finally he took a course at the École nationale d’administration, which is a finishing school for France’s ruling class. Among its graduates it counts three presidents, Giscard d’Estaing, Jacques Chirac and François Hollande, and six Prime Ministers.

Naturally after this preparation, he went straight into the Ministry for the Economy and Finance. He left to work at the Rothschild Bank and then joined President Hollande’s staff at the Élysée. Finally he was appointed minister of economy, industry and digital data in August 2014. And then resigned in August 2016 to found his own party and run for the presidency.'

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_92456859_0bd52905-ea48-4227-9e3b-76959e

Macron.... with Hollande

 

I know nothing about him.

But for some reason, I want ask, is he the French Marco Rubio (up and coming, but a puppet)

Or is he more like one of these characters?

 

macron1_3464373.jpg

Macron-1

 

Megatron4.jpg

Megatron

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_92456859_0bd52905-ea48-4227-9e3b-76959e

Macron.... with Hollande

 

I know nothing about him.

But for some reason, I want ask, is he the French Marco Rubio (up and coming, but a puppet)

Or is he more like one of these characters?

 

macron1_3464373.jpg

Macron-1

 

xx

Megatron

He's trying to present himself as neither left nor right but

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emmanuel_Macron

'In his early career he worked as a civil servant before becoming an investment banker. In August 2014 he was appointed as the Minister of Economy, Industry and Digital Affairs in the Second Valls Government,[1] and pushed through business-friendly reforms. He resigned in August 2016,[2] in order to launch a social liberal[3][4][5] bid in the 2017 presidential election.['

 

Really sounds an anti establishment figure bouncing between civil service and investment banking.

 

His party is of his own creation

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/En_Marche!

'En Marche! was founded on April 6, 2016 in Amiens by Emmanuel Macron.[11] It intends to run candidates in the 2017 French legislative election.[12]

 

 

 

Although Macron was a member of the Socialist Party from 2006 to 2009,[13][14] En Marche! seeks to transcend traditional political boundaries to be a transpartisan organisation.[11] Macron has described it as being a progressive organisation of both the left and the right.[15]

En Marche! has been compared to Spanish centrist political party Citizens, and Macron to its leader Albert Rivera.[16][17]

The party is distinguished from a number of others on the left and right in the 2017 elections by its pro-EU stance.[18]'

 

So anti establishment he's pro Eu...............!!!!

 

 

 

I think with him moving up the polls and the betting,there's going to be a real focus on him.The key to the trade is whether he can really front a campaign.Apparently his meetings are popular compared to Valls'(Socialist Pres candidate) but given how unpopular the socialists are that doesn't really mean a lot.

 

Both he and Le Pen are essentially left wing economically.This leaves a chunk of the first round vote going nowhere but to Fillon.

 

Macron could make the second round courtesy of socialists/hard left voters switching allegiance .

 

The Left Front are polling 15%,so it'll be interesting to see if macron can draw any of these but given how central he is,that's unlikely.

 

He reminds me a little of the Lib Dems in 2010 who briefly recorded a poll lead over Tories and Labour before dropping back.

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Also on the Left Front worth noting how hard line they are

'The Left Front (French: Front de gauche, FG or FDG) is a French electoral federation created for the 2009 European elections by the French Communist Party and the Left Party, which was formed when a left-wing minority faction decided to leave the Socialist Party, and the Unitarian Left (Gauche Unitaire), a group which left the New Anticapitalist Party. The alliance was subsequently extended for the 2010 regional elections and the 2012 presidential election and the subsequent parliamentary election.

In 2012, its constituent parties are, in addition to the two aforementioned parties, the Unitarian Left (Gauche Unitaire), the Federation for a Social and Ecological Alternative (eo; fr) (Fédération pour une alternative sociale et écologique, FASE), Republic and Socialism (fr; zh) (République et socialisme), Convergences and Alternative (fr) (Convergences et alternative), the Anticapitalist Left (Gauche anticapitaliste), the Workers' Communist Party of France (Parti communiste des ouvriers de France, PCOF) and The Alternatives (br; cs; fr) (Les Alternatifs).'

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Odds have moved out on Fillon to 2.8.

 

Macron favourite at 2.66.

 

http://www.france24.com/en/20170128-inquiry-french-presidential-hopeful-francois-fillon-penelope-fake-jobs-widens

 

I think Macrons too short now.He's an establishment patsy if ever there was one

 

 

Are you backing Fillon or waiting a bit to see how it plays out?

 

FWIW Jim Rickards says Le Pen will gain seats but wont' win. He did call both Brexit and Trump so has a good recent track record on political bets, although he did originally have Biden until Clinton got the Dem. nomination.

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Are you backing Fillon or waiting a bit to see how it plays out?

 

FWIW Jim Rickards says Le Pen will gain seats but wont' win. He did call both Brexit and Trump so has a good recent track record on political bets, although he did originally have Biden until Clinton got the Dem. nomination.

I've got what I call a blocking bet on Fillon ie a sum that pays a reasonable return.However,I'm keeping the rest of my powder dry for now.

 

Hard to see a clear leader at the mo.I was tempted to back Fillon some more.My logic being that he's taken good legal advice and they've said there's no case to answer,hence the resignation offer.

 

Fillon back at 2.4 .I think Macron at 2.8 is not backed the evidence

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Worth noting Hamon has had a nice bounce in the latest polling

 

I'll keep an eye on how he does. Fillon came out of nowhere a few months ago so you never know.

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I'll keep an eye on how he does. Fillon came out of nowhere a few months ago so you never know.

A day is a long time in politics lol.Fillon 2.94.Macron 2.24........................

 

On news FIllons wife earned 900k.

 

This is Fillon weakness rather than Macron strength.Still,tough election to bet.

 

I have cash on Fillon.And some on le Pen but further out.

 

I'm sitting tight now to see where the investigation goes I reckon.

 

http://www.france24.com/en/breaking/20170131-france-presidential-candidate-fillon-wife-earned-over-900000-euros-alleged-fake-jobs-says-report

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A day is a long time in politics lol.Fillon 2.94.Macron 2.24........................

 

On news FIllons wife earned 900k.

 

This is Fillon weakness rather than Macron strength.Still,tough election to bet.

 

I have cash on Fillon.And some on le Pen but further out.

 

I'm sitting tight now to see where the investigation goes I reckon.

 

http://www.france24.com/en/breaking/20170131-france-presidential-candidate-fillon-wife-earned-over-900000-euros-alleged-fake-jobs-says-report

Fillon out at 4.1

http://www.france24.com/en/20170201-france-presidential-election-fillon-penelope-scandal-juppe

'Officially, France’s conservatives don’t have an alternative to their embattled presidential candidate. But as François Fillon flounders, they may have to come up with one fast.

Are France’s conservatives about to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory? When he routed his rivals in a conservative primary back in November, Fillon must have believed he had more than a foot in the Élysée Palace. With the ruling Socialists all but written off, opinion polls suggested the candidate for the centre-right Les Républicains was a shoo-in for the presidency. But in the quicksand of French politics, nothing has gone according to plan.

With just three months to go before the first round of the president election, on April 23, organizing a whole new primary is not an option. Nor is the runner-up in the original contest, Bordeaux mayor Alain Juppé, ready to step in as a “replacement” candidate – or so he claims. Challenged by reporters on the subject, Juppé “clearly and definitively” excluded the idea. He added: “Fillon has provided some persuasive arguments [in his defence], I am convinced he will be able to pursue his campaign.”'

 

Will Fillon make it?Fascinating stuff

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Fillon out at 4.1

http://www.france24.com/en/20170201-france-presidential-election-fillon-penelope-scandal-juppe

'Officially, France’s conservatives don’t have an alternative to their embattled presidential candidate. But as François Fillon flounders, they may have to come up with one fast.

Are France’s conservatives about to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory? When he routed his rivals in a conservative primary back in November, Fillon must have believed he had more than a foot in the Élysée Palace. With the ruling Socialists all but written off, opinion polls suggested the candidate for the centre-right Les Républicains was a shoo-in for the presidency. But in the quicksand of French politics, nothing has gone according to plan.

With just three months to go before the first round of the president election, on April 23, organizing a whole new primary is not an option. Nor is the runner-up in the original contest, Bordeaux mayor Alain Juppé, ready to step in as a “replacement” candidate – or so he claims. Challenged by reporters on the subject, Juppé “clearly and definitively” excluded the idea. He added: “Fillon has provided some persuasive arguments [in his defence], I am convinced he will be able to pursue his campaign.”'

 

Will Fillon make it?Fascinating stuff

 

have to say,I'm not sure the Republican vote in France will transfer to Macron in the event he's up against Fillon.

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France is still nutty on Iranian refugees

 

Amid Trump immigration row, France doubles visas for Iranians in 2017

Reuters Tue 31 Jan

TEHRAN (Reuters) - France said on Monday it would double the visas available for Iranians in 2017, partly in response to U.S. President Donald Trump's travel ban order against nationals from Iran and six other countries that is intended to secure U.S. borders.

Speaking to the French expatriate community in Iran's capital, Tehran, Foreign Minister Jean-marc Ayrault said discrimination was not the answer to terrorism.

"The welcoming of refugees is a duty and question of solidarity," Ayrault said. "Terrorism doesn't have a nationality and discrimination is not a response."

The measure also comes as France seeks to deepen bilateral ties with Iran after the lifting of Iranian sanctions in 2015.

France issued about 40,000 visas to Iranians in 2016, a French diplomatic source said, adding that the visas would cover tourism, students and work.

 

> https://uk.yahoo.com/news/amid-trump-immigration-row-france-doubles-visas-iranians-182020196.html

 

Meantime:

Gorka: The message to our enemies is 'deadly clear'

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http://dailycaller.com/2017/01/31/france-could-copy-trumps-immigration-ban-if-le-pen-wins-election/

'

Steeve Briois, a leading member on Le Pen’s campaign team, said the party is open to following Trump’s lead and temporarily ban immigration from select countries in the Middle East. (RELATED: Several Western Countries Give Preference To Christian Refugees)

“Why not? We not living in the word of Care Bears anymore. We are in a horrible world,” Briois told AFP Monday. “It is true that the United States is also a target for jihadists, so if Trump wants to protect it by forbidding the arrival of these people from these countries, he is free to do that. Obviously it is unfortunate for those who have nothing to do with that.”'

 

 

I was watching Channel 4 news in the UK and the news team were in Stoke where there is a by election featuring Ukip leader Paul Nuttal.

The basic upshot was

'people are really enthsed about the new leader...but not Paul Nuttall,actually Donald trump.'

 

C4 news then went round tlaking to people saying how great Trump was................if you know England then you'll realise how much Trump has transcended politics here.

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Hollande Attacks Trump As Terrorist Attacks Louvre

 

Published on Feb 3, 2017

EU globalists used their meeting in Malta to attack Trump for his immigration policy on the very same day a “radical Islamic terrorist”, as Trump put it, launched an attack at the Louvre less than a month after arriving in France. Hollande is not interested in the security of the French people, only in the security of the EU.

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Allegations that Macron had a gay relationship whilst married. The madness of the 2016 US election will never be matched, but the French look like they're going to try anyway.

 

Fillon seems to be hanging on for the moment and his odds have been slashed since last week, although he's still the 3rd favourite behind Macron and Le Pen.

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-election-macron-idUSKBN15M0RK

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