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drbubb

Global Property Investments - Off the Top?

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Global Property Investments - Off the Top?

 

BE CAREFUL ! with your property investments

Base rate at 0.5%. Massive mortgages have been doshed out at 1.99%.

House prices are still very high (in the areas of the country where the work is and people want to live)

You can't earn money leaving it in the bank.

... If you can, buy.

- B.A.B. about the UK property market.

 

There's usually a strong LOGIC for buying, at or near the Top.

Personally, I think we are past the Top, at least in London - per BDEV

 

BDEV.L / Barratt Dev'l ... update

BDEV_zpsjfurnyw4.gif

 

But I am removed from the UK market... and I am also now removed from the HK market.

 

HK-12 / Henderson Land ... update

HK12-5yrs_zpsxmt6bv06.gif

 

I sold out in Hong Kong over 12 months ago, and have bought 3x Houses in Philadelphia,

and 3x flats in the Philippine. No debt was used in these investments.

Because the sticker price of these investments is far less than what I sold in Hong Kong

I am still sitting with a fair amount of cash, and some gold... Waiting.

 

PHM / Pulte Homes ... update

PHM-5yrs_zpstmwrpwyl.gif

 

The waiting is not hurting me.

I bought my first house in Philly in last July at about $75k.

The house next door to it, which is very similar and the same size, just sold at $110k.

While waiting, I am earning 11% pre-tax. The earnings on these investments are more than covering my Rents in HK.

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Why the Peaks before year (2014 & 2015) in the benchmark stocks:

 

+ US / PHM : US$24.15 (5/16/2013) - now $18.19, that's down - 24.7%
+ HK / HK12 : HK$53.92 (5/26/2015) - now $45.60, that's down - 15.4%
+ UK / BDEV : at 673P (9/28/2015) - now 446P, that's down - 33.8%

==========

 

Those old peaks may have had to do Largely with Momentum in U.S. Interest rate moves.

TLT / Bond prices have mostly LOST their upwards momentum / rates are falling much, and may be getting set for a rise

 

There is a clear correlation between

TLT / Treasury Bond Fund etf ... update

TLT-5yrs_zpsl2kvpei5.gif

 

IYR / IShares US Real Estate etf ... update

IYR-5yrsB_zpscph4eu1k.gif

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London Real Estate Prices Are Crashing

picture-5.jpg
Oct 28, 2016

... And the easiest way to confirm it, is to look at recent (and not so recent) home listings in Kensington and Chelsea, where we find something stunning: out of 130 pages of adverts, with 15 ads per page, nearly half of all properties, or 53 of the pages show price reductions.

==

> See Ads etc.: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-27/london-real-estate-prices-are-crashing

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The 18-year Cycle in the USA

The latest Low was 2012 (with Builders shares bottoming in 2011) ... old image-Faber

 

18yrs-90pct_zpsaafy8y6p.gif

 

The real-estate cycle in the U.S. can be summarized with the following table:

Peaks in Interval Peaks in Interval Depressions
land value (yrs) Construction (yrs) interval
1818 -- ----- -- 1819 --
1836 18 1836 __ 1837 18
1854 18 1856 20 1857 20
1872 18 1871 15 1873 16
1890 18 1892 21 1893 20
1907 17 1909 17 1918 25
1925 18 1925 16 1929 11
1973 48 1972 47 1973 44
1979 6 1978 6 1980 7
1989 10 1986 8 1990 10
2006 17 2006 20 2008! 18 (2012 property Low)
2024? 18 2022-24? 16-18 2026-28 ??
====
Real-estate values and construction have peaked one to two years before a depression, and have stayed at peak levels until the onset of the downturn. The historical evidence is consistent with the theory that speculative booms in real-estate prices and construction act as an impetus for the downturn itself.

==

> more charts: http://www.nowandfutures.com/real_estate.html

 

US Property - Recovery nearing an end?

 

If the e-wave count on this chart is accurate. the rally in General Housing stocks since the 2008-9 Low maybe be nearly over

 

HGX / Housing General Index ... All-Data : 10-yrs : 5-yrs : 2-yrs: Last: $232.99 / PHM-10yrs / IYR-10yrs

 

HGX_zpsd52lvm7j.png

 

US: in America, PHM / Pulte Homes is the main bellwether ... Update : all data : 5-years :

PHM-all2_zpsxq0goyo0.gif

 

CaseShiller%2020%20City_zpsourylexm.png

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