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Presidential Vote: state-by-state, Trump may surprise

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Presidential Vote: state-by-state, Trump may surprise

 

The presidential race will ultimately be Won or Lost in the Electoral college

 

Each State's electoral Votes : COUNT

=========

 

Top States : and Results in 2012

 

55 × 1 = 55 : California (Obama 60.24% / Romney 37.12% : + 9.1% above ave.)
38 × 1 = 38 : Texas---- (Obama 41.38% / Romney 57.17% : - 9.8% below ave.)
29 x 2 = 58 : Florida--- (Obama 50.01% / Romney 49.13% : - 1.2% below ave.)
.................. : New York (Obama 63.35% / Romney 35.17% : +12.2% above ave.)
20 x 2 = 40 : Illinois----- (Obama 57.60% / Romney 40.73% : + 6.4% above ave.)
.................. : Pennsylvania (Obama 51.97% / Romney 46.59% : + 0.8% above ave.)
18 × 1 = 18 : Ohio------- (Obama 50.67% / Romney 47.69% : - 0.4% below ave.)
16 × 2 = 32 : Georgia-- (Obama 45.48% / Romney 53.30% : - 5.7% below ave.)
.................. : Michigan-- (Obama 54.21% / Romney 44.71% : + 3.0% below ave.)
15 × 1 = 15 : North Carolina (Obama 48.35% / Romney 50.39% : - 2.8% below ave.)
= 256 (171 Obama / 85 Romney : 66.8% Obama in 2012)
with 270 needed to Win

(Throw in New Jersey with 14 votes, and you have won.)

14 Votes - New Jersey (Obama 58.38% / Romney 40.59% : + 6.2% above average)

2012 Overall : Obama : 65.92mn 51.19% / Romney : 60.93 mn 47.32%
=========== : Electoral Votes were : Obama: 332 / 538 = 61.7% / Romney: 206

=========== : Beyond the Top 10 : Obama: 332-171= 161-57.5% : Romney: 206-85: 119

 

>https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_College_(United_States)

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FOX Poll shows the lead down to 5%*

 

The O'Reilly Factor 10/26/16 | Bill O' Reilly on Latest Fox News Poll, Best Donald Trump interview

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xOdp6LGZbyY

 

Actually only 3 points, in a 4-person race

 

Hannity does the State count, and can find a pathway without Pennsylvania or Michigan,

and I think he can surprise the pollsters in both states.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_PYFOOjcngw

 

I think some Black folks in Philly are going to surprise people. Maybe Michigan too

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TRUMP Might be AHEAD in Michigan !

 

Mich. voters request more absentee ballots than in 2012

635652989892645519-Livengood-Chad.png Chad Livengood, Detroit News Lansing Bureau 11:35 p.m. EDT October 26, 2016

 

B99456434Z.1_20161026225304_000_GFH16SL2

(Photo: Carrie Antlfinger / AP)

Lansing — Michigan Republicans and Democrats are both optimistic about their chances to win large numbers of absentee voters, finding positive trends about their parties in initial returns of absentee ballots less than two weeks before Election Day.

Republicans have a slight lead in the amount of absentee ballots returned by likely voters, but a larger percentage of voters identified as Democrats have returned their ballots, according to a new data analysis.

As of Wednesday, voters identified as Republican had returned 20,624 more ballots than those believed to be Democrats, 190,734 to 170,110, according to an analysis by Practical Political Consulting in East Lansing.

==

> http://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2016/10/26/mich-voters-request-absentee-ballots/92808966/

 

In 2012, Michigan was won by Democratic incumbent Barack Obama by a 9.5% margin of victory.[1] Obama received 54.21% of the vote to Romney's 44.71%. Republicans last carried the state in 1988, when George H.W. Bush won in Michigan.

==

> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_Michigan,_2012

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TEXAS Official: We Are Seeing RECORD BREAKING Voter Turnout in Texas… And It’s ALL For TRUMP (VIDEO)

 

Sid Miller: We have a record number of people registered to vote in Texas.

We’re having record turnouts, the first day, the second day of voting. And it’s not Bernie Sanders supporters coming out to support Hillary. It’s not Barack Obama supporters coming out to support Hillary. It’s a new surge of Trump voters, many who have never registered to vote. Many who have not voted in eight or ten elections so they’re not reported in the polls

…I know for a fact that the polls are off because they oversample Democrats by eight sometimes up to sixteen percent oversampling Democrats. They’re oversampling women by five to eight percent. So the Republican vote is underreported. Plus there is no way to sample this extra twenty to twenty-five percent of new voters that are Trump voters. They’re not Republican, they’re not Democrats, they’re pragmatists. They’re tired of the status quo and they want change.
[link to www.thegatewaypundit.com]

 

61641860.jpg

 

In 2012...

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TRUMP Might be AHEAD in Michigan !

 

Mich. voters request more absentee ballots than in 2012

635652989892645519-Livengood-Chad.png Chad Livengood, Detroit News Lansing Bureau 11:35 p.m. EDT October 26, 2016

 

B99456434Z.1_20161026225304_000_GFH16SL2

(Photo: Carrie Antlfinger / AP)

Lansing — Michigan Republicans and Democrats are both optimistic about their chances to win large numbers of absentee voters, finding positive trends about their parties in initial returns of absentee ballots less than two weeks before Election Day.

Republicans have a slight lead in the amount of absentee ballots returned by likely voters, but a larger percentage of voters identified as Democrats have returned their ballots, according to a new data analysis.

As of Wednesday, voters identified as Republican had returned 20,624 more ballots than those believed to be Democrats, 190,734 to 170,110, according to an analysis by Practical Political Consulting in East Lansing.

==

> http://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2016/10/26/mich-voters-request-absentee-ballots/92808966/

 

In 2012, Michigan was won by Democratic incumbent Barack Obama by a 9.5% margin of victory.[1] Obama received 54.21% of the vote to Romney's 44.71%. Republicans last carried the state in 1988, when George H.W. Bush won in Michigan.

==

> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_Michigan,_2012

I think any rust belt state state is technically in play.As with Brexit, the big problem the pollsters had was predicting turnout by people who hadn't voted in 30 years.They won the day.

 

This Presidential election is made of the same stuff.The MSM just don't know it.Even if they did,they wouldn't admit it.

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" the big problem the pollsters had was predicting turnout by people who hadn't voted in 30 years.They won the day."

 

Interesting

These voters are not easy to count in polls, and may be close to 100% for Trump.

Why else register. Why else vote? Not to support someone who will deliver Obama's 3rdd term but Worse

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" the big problem the pollsters had was predicting turnout by people who hadn't voted in 30 years.They won the day."

 

Interesting

These voters are not easy to count in polls, and may be close to 100% for Trump.

Why else register. Why else vote? Not to support someone who will deliver Obama's 3rdd term but Worse

Absolutely,I would suggest the bulk of new registrations are likely to break for Trump particularly over 40's.

 

I'm not sure if you can get that data.

 

Kilary won't have people rushing to register.That's for sure.If people don't like Trump,it doesn't mean they'll vote for her.

 

Personally,I think in the state by state polls,Trump is in a good position.

 

Especially after he told Ford execs that if they moved their plant they can eat a 35% tariff

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I think any rust belt state state is technically in play.As with Brexit, the big problem the pollsters had was predicting turnout by people who hadn't voted in 30 years.They won the day.

 

This Presidential election is made of the same stuff.The MSM just don't know it.Even if they did,they wouldn't admit it.

 

 

72% of potential voters turned out for Brexit compared to 66% for the General Election just a year earlier, which is a massive difference. It was definitely palpable that people felt it was a more important vote and I can see the same happening with the US election. I was never polled about Brexit and didn't vote in the 2015 election and I know a lot of people in the same position (not much of a sample size but look at the polling compared to the actual result in the end)

 

There's also the fear factor in declaring your support for Trump. I doubt anybody is scared about saying they support Hillary, but there's a lot more vitriol directed at Trump supporters and this is validated by the attacks carried out that are regularly in the news.

 

How many people answer phone polling and say 'Clinton' or 'Undecided' because they're scared of admitting they're a Trump supporter? Probably a small % but it could be sizeable enough to swing the vote when it comes to polling day.

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"

How many people answer phone polling and say 'Clinton' or 'Undecided' because they're scared of admitting they're a Trump supporter? Probably a small % but it could be sizeable enough to swing the vote when it comes to polling day."

 

It may be higher than you think - when people have seen that they can lose their jobs, or get negative comments from their colleagues.

Not everyone is like me - I like defying people's explanations, and then explaining why I have an unpopular point of view -

you've seen that again and again on GEI. But not all people are like that.

 

Most people are not like that. They prefer to get along, by going along. So they may be accustomed to hiding their Trump support from others,

including pollsters. David Duke also "flies under the radar" and would often find that he would get an extra 20% or more, raising his vote totals

from 20% to 40% in some elections. This has been called "the David Duke effect"

 

NEW VOTERS

But the real Vote deciders may be those not picked up by the Polls - the NEW voters, who have registered only because they have been energized by Trump's

campaign and want to support him. No one knows how many of these people there, are and so they will not be adjusting their polls to include them

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"

How many people answer phone polling and say 'Clinton' or 'Undecided' because they're scared of admitting they're a Trump supporter? Probably a small % but it could be sizeable enough to swing the vote when it comes to polling day."

 

It may be higher than you think - when people have seen that they can lose their jobs, or get negative comments from their colleagues.

Not everyone is like me - I like defying people's explanations, and then explaining why I have an unpopular point of view -

you've seen that again and again on GEI. But not all people are like that.

 

Most people are not like that. They prefer to get along, by going along. So they may be accustomed to hiding their Trump support from others,

including pollsters. David Duke also "flies under the radar" and would often find that he would get an extra 20% or more, raising his vote totals

from 20% to 40% in some elections. This has been called "the David Duke effect"

 

NEW VOTERS

But the real Vote deciders may be those not picked up by the Polls - the NEW voters, who have registered only because they have been energized by Trump's

campaign and want to support him. No one knows how many of these people there, are and so they will not be adjusting their polls to include them

 

Yeah it could be a lot higher and there's no doubt the hidden votes are going to be for Trump.

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More People are talking about a Trump Victory - and even Hillary's people are behaving like they see it coming

 

Insider: Clinton Knows She Is Losing -- Larry Nichols at 6:30 minutes

 

AJ: "Our preliminaries are showing a landslide for Trump."

 

(And then there's this evidence of dwindling confidence within Team Hillary):

 

Tim Kaine Sarasota rally canceled

Democratic vice presidential nominee Tim Kaine's visit to Sarasota Friday has been canceled.

Kaine was set to speak at the Municipal Auditorium Friday night but the campaign pulled the plug on the event Wednesday.

Hillary Clinton's campaign gave few details on why the rally was canceled, simply calling it a "scheduling change." Sarasota County Democratic Party Chairwoman Christine Jennings said she was informed by Clinton's team late Wednesday that Kaine could no longer make it.

 

> http://www.heraldtribune.com/news/20161027/tim-kaine-sarasota-rally-canceled

 

Scheduling change? Yeah.

Everyone knows by now that Kaine attracted only 30 people to his last rally

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More People are talking about a Trump Victory - and even Hillary's people are behaving like they see it coming

 

Insider: Clinton Knows She Is Losing -- Larry Nichols at 6:30 minutes

 

AJ: "Our preliminaries are showing a landslide for Trump."

 

(And then there's this evidence of dwindling confidence within Team Hillary):

 

Tim Kaine Sarasota rally canceled

Democratic vice presidential nominee Tim Kaine's visit to Sarasota Friday has been canceled.

Kaine was set to speak at the Municipal Auditorium Friday night but the campaign pulled the plug on the event Wednesday.

Hillary Clinton's campaign gave few details on why the rally was canceled, simply calling it a "scheduling change." Sarasota County Democratic Party Chairwoman Christine Jennings said she was informed by Clinton's team late Wednesday that Kaine could no longer make it.

 

> http://www.heraldtribune.com/news/20161027/tim-kaine-sarasota-rally-canceled

 

Scheduling change? Yeah.

Everyone knows by now that Kaine attracted only 30 people to his last rally

This speaking change was highlighted on Drudge as well.

 

It does beg the question of how badly she's going down in Florida.

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This speaking change was highlighted on Drudge as well.

 

It does beg the question of how badly she's going down in Florida.

 

I think she will get clobbered.

But if that becomes obvious, the WW3 and/or assassination options may click into the minds of the monsters who want to run the country.

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