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STOCKS, Chat & Top Stockbrokers in Manila area

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Stockbroker, COL, is outperforming the Index in recent weeks

PSEI / Philippines Stock Index ... update : 7,862.62 - 37.36

LWnkwJJ.gif

 
 

COL / COL Financial Group Inc. (PSE) ... update

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COL Financial 2017 profit grows 15.3% - today's Manila Times

ONLINE broker COL saw its net income jump 15.3% driven by continuous growth in its client base

+ COL said net income grew from P328Mn to P379Mn in 2017

+ 21% increase in client accounts from 205,000 to 249,000

+ referrals from clients, and new investors centers outside Metro Manila, namely: Davao, Cebu, Ilocos

+ Market share grew to 6.3 percent from 5.6 percent, and in terms of value turnover for local investors to 13.1 percent from 11.9 percent.

 

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Global Stock market Comparison

RESISTANCE may be futile - or Not

SPY-vs.UKX, PSEI : 10-d :

qkjz7u3.gif

Let's see if SPY can punch above important resistance near $271.

SPY ... update

sVKj8mG.gif

If it can, the old highs may be retested

Equivalent Resistance for FTSE is 7,300

UKX ... update

ydT9oF5.gif

The Philippines Stock Exchange Index is already breaking down

PSEI ... update : 5-yrs :

PCcNU5A.gif

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WARNING !:

"NEXT WEEK may be brutal for PH stocks - many shares had a very weak close"

"If we get a new low on monday with heavy volume it would be a bad sing. I do not like weak closes like this on a friday"

- Message by Viber Chat

PSEI / PH Stock Index ... update / Last: P 7,529.5  -73,44, -0.97% (12 mo range: 7,457.1 to 9,078.4 ) / Psei-etc-0d :

Q2IMBvG.gif

("Look at ALI stock")

ALI / Ayalaland ... update / Last: P 39.15  -1.00, -2.49% (12 mo range: 38.45 to 47.50 )

rwL3HuU.gif

BPI / Bank of Philippine Islands ... update / Last: P 95.85  -2.80, -2.84% (12 mo range: 92.97 to 125.45 )

lddBT7d.gif

Let's see what happens on Monday... and beyond

A break of 7,500 could quickly bring the index to likely support at/near 7,000

PH Stock Index / PH:PSEI ... update

KbGIF9a.gif

PSEI vs. SPX & UKX ... update  : Vs-SHcomp :

LfYDeVy.gif

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Emerging Asia Hit by Biggest Foreign Investor Exodus Since 2008

“A falling tide lowers all boats, it seems. Overseas funds are pulling out of six major Asian emerging equity markets at a pace unseen since the global financial crisis of 2008 — withdrawing $19 billion from India, Indonesia, the Philippines, South Korea, Taiwan and Thailand so far this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-18/emerging-asia-hit-by-biggest-foreign-investor-exodus-since-2008

/ 2 /

Chasing Yield during ZIRP & NIRP Evidently Starved Human Brains of Oxygen. Now the Price Is Due

See Argentina’s 100-year dollar-bond and emerging-market “turmoil” as the Hot Money flees.
Let’s be clear: It’s not just Argentina. But Argentina is the most elegant example. The exodus of the hot money from emerging markets where cheap dollar-debts were used to fund pet projects and jack up leverage is – once again – in full swing. Cheap dollar-debt in emerging markets is an old sin that, like all old sins, is repeated endlessly. The outcome is always trouble. But during the act, it sure is a lot of fun for everyone.

The exodus of the hot money is even gripping the non-basket-case emerging economies of Asia where it’s causing the worst indigestion since 2008. Bloomberg:

Overseas funds are pulling out of six major Asian emerging equity markets at a pace unseen since the global financial crisis of 2008 – withdrawing $19 billion from India, Indonesia, the Philippines, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand so far this year.

While emerging markets shone in the first quarter, suggesting resilience to Federal Reserve tightening, that image has shattered over the past two months. With American money market funds now offering yields around 2% – where 10-year Treasuries were just last September – and prospects for more Fed hikes, the bar for heading into riskier assets has been raised.

“It’s not a great set-up for emerging markets,” James Sullivan, head of Asia ex-Japan equities research at JPMorgan Chase, told Bloomberg. “We’ve still only priced in about two thirds of the US rate increases we expect to see over the next 12 months. So the Fed is continuing to get more hawkish, but the market still hasn’t caught up.”

> More https://wolfstreet.com/2018/06/18/chasing-yield-during-zirp-nirp-evidently-starved-human-brains-of-oxygen/

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PSEI : 7,098 - 163 : -2.25%
ALI -   : 37.05 -1.20 : -3.14%
SMPH: 32.90 -1.60 : -4.64% !!
MEG- : P4.43 -0.17 : -3.70%
DMC- : P9.99 -0.21 : -2.06%
SHNG: P3.34 +0.01 : +0.30% : 7.51% yield (helps stabilize!)
BPI-: 90.50 -0.50 : -0.55% : 1.93% yield

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PRESSURE on China... & other Emerging Markets

CN:ShComp ... 3-yr :

CONPMBo.gif

India:Sensex ... 3-yr :

LZh12mX.gif

PH:PSEI ... 3-yr :

BEV7RVt.gif

WARNING ! De-coupling Underway, as a strong US economy raises: inflation & interest rates

Well over a month ago we warned our followers of a “capital market shift” that was taking place in the global markets.  Nearly 3 months before that time, we warned that China's economy was about to enter a sustained economic downtrend cycle that could be dangerous to the global markets.  Today, we offer further evidence that the global markets are, in fact, shifting away from a price correlation to the US Majors and this move could be a warning sign that emerging markets and global markets could lead the world into an extended stagflation cycle.

Think about this for a minute, as we briefly discussed in our last article, what would happen if the US markets continued to rally on a strong economy with strong consumer participation while the US Fed was slow to raise interest rates while supporting a transitional shift of the US economy towards more manufacturing, technology, and expectations?  How would the world's economies react to such a shift given their current economic cycles and opportunities?  Would they be able to keep up with the US or would they start to trail further and further behind the US?

It is our belief that any continued strengthening of the US economy could, in fact, present real dangers for many of the world's economies simply because they may fall completely out of sync with the US stock market as their currencies, economies and consumer expectations fail to keep up with the US capabilities.  How all of this will play out over the next few months/years is our concern.  We know it will result in some tremendous trading opportunities for investors, but it could also create a new class of undervalued assets that could present some real long-term opportunity over the next 20+ years.

. . . What about India & SE Asia?  Our custom India index has shown relatively FLAT recent price activity compared to the SPY.  Overall, our opinion is that India has yet to completely diverge from the US majors and we urge all investors to be aware that any further price breakdown in this India custom index will warn that the Indian/SE Asian economies are losing their battle to stay correlated to the US markets going forward.  Right now, there is evidence of weakness in the India custom index – yet there are limited signs of a broken correlation to the US markets.  It certainly shows that this price disconnect could be happening and likely is happening – yet we don't have clear signs that this custom index is breaking to new lows (yet).

> more: https://www.marketslant.com/article/warning-all-investors-global-market-are-shifting-away-us-price-correlation

PSEI vs. SPX & UKX ... update  : Vs-SHcomp : SHcomp-Psei-Ukx :

3lENHjR.gif

kYHrm8S.gif

: SHcomp-Psei-Ukx :

QniMwwB.gif

Stagflation? Nearly always BAD for Stock markets

Inflation in the U.S. accelerated during May to the fastest pace in over six years, reports Bloomberg. The consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.2 percent from April and 2.8 percent from a year earlier. Average hourly wages, however, were unchanged from May 2017 when adjusted for inflation, which shows employees’ incomes were stagnate.  The trend of no growth in real purchasing power for employees cannot go on forever.  The first rounds of teacher strikes this past school year likely won’t be a onetime event or one sector of the economy shock.  Labor markets are tight.  Immigration labor is being choked off from participation in the future which should lead to increased Unit Labor Costs.  Cornerstone Macro notes that Unit Labor Costs accelerated sharply in the 1970s driven by a jump in compensation gains which led inflation and gold during that decade.

> http://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2018-06-18/SWOT-Analysis-Confirmed-Interest-Rate-Hike-Inspiring-Bullishness-in-Gold-Traders.html

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PSEI - vs. ALI, SMPH, MEG & BPI .. 10yr : 5yrW : 2yrD : 6moD : 10d / Late June'18: PSEI may be Rolling Over !

6/25/18: PSEI - 7,134 / ALI:37.60 (0.53% psei), SMPH:33.95 (0.48%), MEG:4.47 (0.063%), BPI:87.85 (1.23%)

WWDCKBj.gif

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RELATIVE WEAKNESS in PH stocks

PSEI is not keeping up with indices in Other countries

Short term: PSEI - vs.Other ... 10d :

rmCwf1q.gif

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PSEI -etc ...10 day : 6/26, before the Close - going into the end of the Quarter

Stock index - is in a falling trend, along with property stocks & BPI

Will we see a Low below 7,000 near the end of the Quarter?

mfQr1XA.gif

Fri (6/08), Mon (6/11), Tue (6/26):

Symbol: 06/08: open : psei/ : PCT.% : 06/11 / x PCT: 06/26 : ratio :
PSEI -   : 7,741 : 7,738 : 1.000 : 100.% : 7,771 / 7,007 : 7,007 : 100.%
ALI --    : 40.80 : 41.00 : 188.7 : .530% : 40.80 / 37.14 : 36.60 : 98.5%
BPI --    : 99.30 : 99.50 : 77.77 : 1.29% : 98.90 / 90.39 : 86.00 : 95.1%
MEG -  : P4.90 : P4.90 : 1579. : .063% : P4.78 / P4.41 : P4.30 : 97.5%
SMPH  : 37.70 : 37.50 : 206.3 : .485% : 37.00 / 33.98 : 33.70 : 99.2%
hk2823: 14.38 : 14.44 : 535.9 : .187% : 14.56 / 13.10 : 13.36 : 102.%

(in edit, 12-mo Low was: 6,923.67. Closing Low of XX came 6/??.)

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PSEI Index still in Rally mode. But the rally may be capped

I think a target of about 7,800 looks likely - watch ALI / AyalaLand for clues.

PSEI / PH Stock Exchange Index ... update : fr.8.1.2017: w/ALI :

q37QeHT.gif

fr. 8.1.2017 : w/ALI : flipped w/vol. / w/smph+meg :

q1kJuwZ.gif

PSEI is being led higher by ALI & MEG (among others)

PSEI vs- ALI, MEG... BPI & SMPH ... update :

VZtWClc.gif

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PSEI Index : "I think a target of about 7,800 looks likely " - written July 26th Near 7,000

A pretty decent call so far !

PSEI / PH Stock Exchange Index ... 12mos : fr.8.1.2017: w/ALI :

mJRR1zl.gif

PSEI and ALI / AyalaLand

c6ZXn3J.gif

Weakness in BPI are signaling some trouble (probably) for the other stocks too.

> see: BPI-10d

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(From today's Viber chat):

+ THE RECENT RALLY may be STALLING... (see charts above) - But slide is NOT yet Comfirmed

+ Why is this important? Often property stocks (like ALI) may give a 6mo-12mo warning of a Top in Property prices. I have seen this occur in many markets...

It is looking like USA in 2006, and UK one year later in 2007. Similar set-up gave a false signal in HK

Short term Range: BPI-etc / MEG, SMPH, ALI & PSEI ... 10d :

7eB0DHg.gif

+ Right now... I am wondering if BPI and the banks stocks will lead the PH stock market lower. That's what the charts seem to be hinting

s2eaD75.gif

+ On the property side, ALI , and especially SMPH seem to be the main ones to watch. If they both start sliding from here, then maybe it will be a big warning that PH property is peaking. Do you think this is possible??

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UK Peak versus possible PH Property Peak?

In reaction to a post on my website about the UK property market:

First time since 1990 I've heard an agent utter the words 'the market is falling'.

That's an important marker.

They probably would not say that unless there was a lot of evidence

The main property bellwether, BDEV, peaked over 9 months ago

That's nicely within the window of "Developer stocks peak 6-12 months before the actual market"

BDEV / Barratt Dev'l ... update :

NSW3pSS.gif=

Compare : PH:ALI, Ayalaland

69hr4yh.gif

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SMPH has a much stronger chart. SMPH is in a narrow sideways channel as of late.

 

SMDC is the Philippines. Not Ayala, Not Megaworld, Not DMCI, Not/Nor any other property developer.

 

It will be interesting to see which direction SMPH will follow now.

The European direction which is down, or the USA direction which is still up.

Time will tell.

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SAFE So far...

The charts are up, and the stocks seem to be backing away from the possible downdraft.

PSEI : 7,804.0 : +171.77 : + 2.25%
(stocks)
Smph : P 38.50 : + 1.40  : + 3.77%
ALI --  : P 44.30 : + 1.20  : + 2.78%
MEG- : P   4.94 :  + 0.05  : + 1.02%
BPI -- : P 95.80 : + 4.70  : + 5.16% !!

I think these stocks may be the best bellwether stocks for the PH property market.  I included one bank, BPI, because they have a big property exposure thru financing Ayalaland properties. BDO … and maybe Metrobank might work also. I think I need at least one bank as a bellwether, Do you think one of the might be better than BPI as an "early warning"

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PROPERTY Stocks may be about to Break the (mild) Downturn

Sym. / Developer === CHART LINKS::
ALI - / AyalaLand ..... All-Data : 5-yrs : 3-yrs : 6-mos : 10-d
MEG / Megaworld .... All-Data : 5-yrs : 3-yrs : 6-mos : 10-d
Popi / Prime Orient .. All-Data : 5-yrs : 3-yrs : 6-mos : 10-d
CPG / Century Prop . All-Data : 5-yrs : 3-yrs : 6-mos : 10-d
SMph/SM PrimeHld . All-Data : 5-yrs : 3-yrs : 6-mos : 10-d

ALI ... 3yr chart : at P43.90 is trying to break above the down-channel.

Jxm3whB.gif

ALI +etc ... 12mos-chart (below)

5-yrs : 2yrs : 6mos // 10-d : ALI : MEG : SMPH : CPG : POPI :

dxkrvCf.gif

HISTORICAL Stock Summary at 10/13/16: -- shows rising earmings trend in ALI, etc.

ALI - / Ayalaland - : Yr-H: $42.15 : 10/13 : $36.40 : Off H: -13.65% :: P/E: 28.56 : Earns: P1.27
MEG / Megaworld: Yr-H: $05.51 : 10/13 : $04.11 : Off H: -25.41% :: P/E: 12.48 : Earns: P0.33
Popi / PrimeOrion: Yr-H: $02.28 : 10/13 : $01.92 : Off H: -15.79% :: P/E: - n/a - : Earns: P -nil -
CPG / Cent.PrpGr: Yr-H: $0.780 : 10/13 : $0.570 : Off H: -26.93% :: P/E: 6.364 : Earns: P0.090

Stock Summary at 07/20/17:
ALI - / Ayalaland - : Yr-H: P42.40 : 07/19 : P41.70 : Off H: -01.65% :: P/E: 28.18 : Earns: P1.48
Smph/ SMPrimeH: Yr-H: P35.20 : 07/19 : P34.50 : Off H: -01.99% :: P/E: 40.59 : Earns: P0.85
MEG / Megaworld: Yr-H: P05.51 : 07/19 : P04.75 : Off H: -13.80% :: P/E: 13.12 : Earns: P0.36
Popi / PrimeOrion: Yr-H: P02.45 : 07/19 : P02.21 : Off H: -09.80% :: P/E: - n/a - : Earns: P -nil -
CPG / Cent.PrpGr : Yr-H: P0.780 : 07/19 : P0.650 : Off H: -16.67% :: P/E: 10.66 : Earns: P0.061

Stock Summary at 08/24/18:
ALI - / Ayalaland - : Yr-H: P47.50 : 08/24 : P43.90 : Off H: -07.58% :: P/E: 22.86 : Earns: P1.92
Smph/ SMPrimeH: Yr-H: P39.70 : 08/24 : P38.50 : Off H: -03.02% :: P/E: 37.60 : Earns: P1.02
MEG / Megaworld: Yr-H: P04.68 : 08/24 : P05.85 : Off H: -20.00% :: P/E: 11.06 : Earns: P0.42
Popi / PrimeOrion: Yr-H: P02.87 : 08/24 : P04.10 : Off H: -30.00% :: P/E: - n/a - : Earns: P -nil -
CPG / Cent.PrpGr : Yr-H: P0.450 : 08/24 : P0.560 : Off H: -19.64% :: P/E: 08.49 : Earns: P0.053

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OPTIONS Trading....

The PH govt has announced that it will allow Short Trading, and may soon allow trading in Derivative also.

Maybe this is a good time to begin to study options trading.  I have started a new thread about this in another section

OPTIONS Q&A and Resources (For Beginners too)

Please have a look, and comment if you like.

(BTW, in trying to sign up here, my "fav0rite b1rd" is "Admiral Byrd" - you might need to use that to Register.)

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PSEI INDEX may be "Building Cause, to Go Lower"

PSEI has broken the (330 wk) MA which is generally supportive, and now it is working off the Oversold position,
staying near the bottom of the uptrend channel.  Unless it can rally up to above 7,500 soon,
it is likely to break the Upchannel near 6900 and slide lower.

PSEI / Philippines Stock Index ... update :  7,140.29 + 124.23

t9WYYjY.gif

The flock of bellwether stocks would also head lower, if the PSEI breaks down

PSEI -vs-Bellwether stocks ... update : 10d :

Two to especially watch: BPI: Last P82.15 +2.65 / SMPH: Last: P33.80 +0.05

yCaEAXB.gif

===

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