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STOCKS, Chat & Top Stockbrokers in Manila area

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STOCKS, Chat & Top Stockbrokers in Manila area

 

One of them is public

 

PH:COL / COL Financial ... All-data : 3-yrs : 1-yr : 6-mos : 10d / last: P15.88 at 10/30/17 : PE: 21.17, Yield: 0.88%

PRupeP3.gif

 

COL trades like an illiquid stock. But the price may show something about how much business stockbrokers are doing

 

Other major stock brokers include

+ Philstocks

+ Unicapital Securities

+ Others: ???

=======

COL stock has not kept pace with the Stock Index

 

PSE-Index. / PH:PSEI ... All-data : 5-yr : 2-yr : 6-mo // All-Data-vs-PSE : Last: 10/20/17: 8,420.95: arrow_dn_sm.gif -66.42

sDUjiNO.gif

 

Neither has the marker for the Stock Exchange, which is a public company

 

 

Philippines Stock Exch. / PH:PSE ... All-data : 5-yr : 2-yr : 6-mo :

FbsxwGd.gif

 

In fact, the stock traders have had little benefit from the weak PH Peso

 

Phil. Peso ... usPHP ... All Data : 2-years : 6-mos : 10-days / DXY : CNY vsPHP : MYRvsPHP : updated to 10/20/17: USD= P51.50

OcxZUyr.gif

 

In 2017, Property stocks seems to have benefited from the weak Peso (except CPG) ... update

GA5Drbj.gif

=====

LINKS:

Stock Codes : http://psepicks.blogspot.com/p/philippine-stock-list.html

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With the Philippines stock index down about - 5% from its Highs...

Dow Jones Philippines Total Stock Market Index PHP

XX:DWPH ... All-data : 3-yrs : 1-yr : 6-mos : 10d / Last: 7,246.90 - 5.3 % from High of Year ( 7,652.58 )

chart to 10/30/2017

1GruSET.gif

 

+ There is talk of "blood in the streets", and

+ Brokers are looking for positive things to say to their clients

 

(From today's Business News in the Manila Bulletin ):

 

Said one stockbroker (Jonathan Latuha of Unicap)

"Even if the market is still suffering from too much volatility, the expectation that the Philippines economy will continue to grow is still there."

"Property stocks are still tradeable, despite the government's two year moratorium on Land Conversions."

"BPO growth stories are there, and rental rates are still growing."

He favors:

1. Conglomerates with infrastructure projects

2. Property companies

=

Companies like:

Symbol/ Company--------- : LastPr : EPS- : P/E / CHARTS
+ MPI / Metro Pacific Invest : P7.13 : 00.35 : 20.8 / All : 3yrs : 1yr : 10d :
+ SM / SM Investments----- : P665. : 35.88 : 4.41 / All : 3yrs : 1yr : 10d :
( SMPH / SM Prime Hldgs)- : 26.10 : 00.98 : 27.6 / All : 3yrs : 1yr : 10d :
+ AC / Ayala Corp----------- : P845. : 33.89 : 25.2 / All : 3yrs : 1yr : 10d :
( ALI / Ayalaland ) ---------- : 36.20 : P1.20 : 30.2 / All : 3yrs : 1yr : 10d :
+ GTCAP/ GT CapitalHldg : 1,340. : 69.53 : 19.3 / All : 3yrs : 1yr : 10d :


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TLT (US Bonds) lead Ayalaland -- and other PH property stocks

 

TLT -vs - ALI.ph ... update / Last, TLT: $121.83 arrow_up_sm.gif +0.97 / PH:ALI: P34.35 arrow_up_sm.gif +0.40

WARNING of possible downturn in ALI at 10/30/17, if TLT stays weak

xvaZCPG.gif

 

Presently in a rising trend, with a test of resistance likely in the next few days (I wrote in Jan 2017)

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Megaworld (Philippines Condo builder) has the stock chart rolled over (?)

 

That's what my assessment this chart suggests to me.

A break of Support at 3.00-3.25 would help to confirm this - a rally over 4.00 would help reject it

 

MEG.ph ... 4-yrs : 6-mos :

MEG-4yrs_zpszw6zsqht.gif

 

Megaworld group earmarks P60 Bn for expansion in 2017 (Today's Business News, pg. B-3)


+ P 60 Billion this year for: "new residential condominiums, office towers, commercial centers, and hotels"
+ MW says "cash position remains healthy" but they "will also tap debt market through proceeds of P30bn retail bond program"
+ "Fast-tracking" developments : McKinley West, Uptown Bonifacio, Davao Park District, Ilioilo Business Park, Boracay Newcoast, Twin Lakes, and Alabang West
+ The group is set to launch 20 residential projects covering sales value of around P 31.2 billion, with several in Ft Bonifacio
+ Megaworld is also adding seven new office towers in Iliolo, Newport City, Eastwood City, Southwoods City... and six new lifestyles malls
+ We continue to focus on doubling our rental revenues by 2020

I find it odd that the stock is performing so sluggishly in the face of such aggressive expansion. Perhaps there are some concerns within the stock market that MEG is expanding so aggressively when there are real signs of a slowdown in the residental market

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"P 0.52-0.56 is a key Support Level for CPG stock" - I had said

 

PH:CPG - Century Properties ... 6-mo : 2-yrs : 5-yrs : Last: P 0.52 at 2/15/2017

https://i.imgur.com/9ZZmlvh.gif

===

If P 0.52 breaks, it could go quickly to 0.47, even lower

image.png

image.png

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PH:DD / Double Dragon ... All :

 

 

Why DoubleDragon's stock surged 2500% (25X) since market debut

BusinessWorld Online Edition-2 Feb 2017
DoubleDragon Properties Corp. Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Edgar J. Sia II talks about the company's plans at his office in Makati City ...
/ 2 /
DoubleDragon allocates P6.6B to build more JinJiang hotels
BusinessWorld Online Edition-21 Oct 2016
JinJiang Inn currently operates two hotels in the country, one each in the Ortigas Center and Makati. It considers expanding into Quezon City, ...

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Property companies reporting surge in (Retail and Office) Leasing revenues,

as they emphasize Commercial rather than Residential property

 

This seems to be a pattern - Filinvest reported similar yesterday*

 

PH: FLI / Filinvest Land ... all-data : FLI : P1.68 - 0.03 / PER: 8.40, yield: 2.44%

FLI_zpsbkapp6dt.gif

 

Today, it was Vista's turn:

 

PH: VLL / Vista Land & Lifestyles ... all-data : P4.77 - 0.03 / PER: 7.03, yield: 2.48%

VLL_zpsrg2w889l.gif

 

Vista land nets P8.1B as leasing business grows (Business World, pg4)

 

+ Net income increased 13% to P 8.1bn from 7.18bn, with EPS up from P0.632 to P0.676

+ The leasing business buoyed the bottom line, rising a strong 59% from P2.64bn to P4.67 bn

+ The company had 17 malls, 56 comm'l centers, and four offices at end 2016

+ Lease-able properties expanded from 631.1k sqm to 882.0k sqm with the acquisition of Star malls

+ They have a target to grow to 1mn this year, and 1.3 sqm by the end of 2018

+ Portfolio will be 80% retail malls, and 20% BPO offices

+ Residential property sales were "flatish", but they are cautiously optimistic that 2017 will be better

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Why is SM so expensive?

The PE Ratio seems too high now. The yield too low also

 

PH: Smph / SM Prime Holdings Inc. ... All-data : Latest: P35.90 (12/6/2017) /range: 26.20 to 38.25

zvYNAGS.gif

==

 

smph P28.30 - 0.20 / PER: 34.3, yield: 0.81%

ALI : P35.30 - 0.70 / PER: 24.9, yield: n/a
AGI : P12.88 +0.10 / PER: 9.22, yield: 2.41%
MEG : P 3.55 - 0.03 / PER: 10.3, yield: 1.42%

VLL : P 4.77 - 0.03 / PER: 7.03, yield: 2.48%
FLI : P 1.68 - 0.03 / PER: 8.40, yield: 2.44%

===========

 

As a thought experiment....

 

SELL : 10,000 shs. SMPH : P28.30 at Php 283,000 -

and Hedge by:

BUY : 22,000 shs. AGI : P12.88 at Php 283,360 - Net: (Php 360)
or:
BUY : 40,000 shs. MEG : P 3.55 at Php 142,000 ++
BUY : 84,000 shs. FLI : P 1.68 at Php 141,120 - Net: (Php 120)

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Earnings are out for 2016 : MEG profits up 11%, parent AGI up 5%

These are reasonable results, but represent a slowdown in Growth

 

Megaworld's stock is breaking down

 

PH:MEG ... update / Last: P 3.39 versus High P 5.51 (- 38.5%)

ac_zpsppfkosbk.gif

 

I find it hard to buy the notion that Manila property is still in a Bull market, when I see charts like the one above.

 

These are under pressure too : ALI at P33.85 - 17.5% : SMPH at P28.40 - 9.9% :

 

And Century ( CPG at P0.495 - 75% ) may soon retest the old lows.near 0.40.

 

AGI Announced yesterday, MEG a few days earlier. ... 5-yrs : 2-yrs : 6-mos : 10-d :

MEG stock is up to P 3.74, 10% above the recent low near P 3.40 last week
AGI is trading at P 13.68, up 2% on the day, and +9.4% above last week's low near P12.50.
The market seems to like these results

PH:AGI / Alliance Global Group Inc. ... 5-yrs : 2-yrs : 6-mos : 10-d :
AGI-5yr_zpsi606xpls.gif

 

I started a thread about MEG / AGI:

> http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=21392

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TAKING PROFITS, on the "thought trade", because the "easy money" may have been made on MEG, and AGI.

 

Why is SM so expensive?

The PE Ratio seems too high now. The yield too low also

 

PH: Smph / SM Prime Holdings Inc. ... All-data :

SMph-log_zpsdyvaqtph.gif

 

smph P28.30 - 0.20 / PER: 34.3, yield: 0.81%

ALI : P35.30 - 0.70 / PER: 24.9, yield: n/a
AGI : P12.88 +0.10 / PER: 9.22, yield: 2.41%
MEG : P 3.55 - 0.03 / PER: 10.3, yield: 1.42%

VLL : P 4.77 - 0.03 / PER: 7.03, yield: 2.48%
FLI : P 1.68 - 0.03 / PER: 8.40, yield: 2.44%

===========

 

As a thought experiment....

1/

SELL : 10,000 shs. SMPH : P28.30 at Php 283,000 -

and Hedge by:

BUY : 22,000 shs. AGI : P12.88 at Php 283,360 - Net: (Php 360)
or:

2/
BUY : 40,000 shs. MEG : P 3.55 at Php 142,000 ++
BUY : 84,000 shs. FLI : P 1.68 at Php 141,120 - Net: (Php 120)

 

With MEG/Megaworld up to P4.10, and is at/near expected resistance.

 

MEG2_zpsktvf6o96.gif

 

That's 15.5% above the level (P3.55) where I flagged it as a possible Buy.
If I was in one of the above trades as a Short Term punt, I would consider taking profits now

1/
SELL : 10,000 shs. SMPH : P28.30 at Php 283,000 / now P29.65 - P296,500 (loss:-P13,500)
and Hedge by:
BUY : 22,000 shs. AGI : P12.88 at Php 283,360 / now P14.70 - P323,400 (gain: P40,040)
= Net: (Php 360) = Overall Gain: Php 26,540-> +9.4% on the Face value, of a well-hedged trade
or:
2/
BUY : 40,000 shs. MEG : P 3.55 at Php 142,000 / now P 4.10 - P164,000 (gain: P22,000)
BUY : 84,000 shs. FLI : P 1.68 at Php 141,120 / now P 1.66 - P139,440 (loss: -P 1,680)
= Net: (Php 120) = Overall Gain: Php 6,820-> +2.4% on the Face value, of a well-hedged trade
=====
I would probably only unwind the 1st part (MEG vs. 5,000 shs SMPH) of the 2nd trade,
and continue to stay short SMPH vs long FLI

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PH Peso is weak - Why?

 

Phil. Peso ... usPHP ... All Data : 2-years : 6-mos : 10-days / DXY : CNY vsPHP : MYRvsPHP :

sQKQMGj.gif

 

An article in Today's Philippines Star (pg B5) gives some good reasons

 

Peso Weakness - Good or Bad? - by Wilson Sy

 

He gives Six reasons why the PHP is weakening against an already-weak USD

 

+ Current account deficit, Weaker trade gap, slower than expected growth in OFW remittances,

+ War in Marawi, charts - the break of PHP 50 barrier, Narrowing yield differential, as US rates rise

 

Looking closer at the numbers, he observes:

+ Oil prices have stopped falling, and oil imports have a big impact of PH's trade balance

+ Auto purchases were front-ende to beat an excise price increase, and capital goods imports rose

+ Some investors shifted out of PH fixed income holdings

 

Peso weakness has a positive side:

+ Higher spending power for OFW's, and more competitive BPOs

+ Exports boosted, along with local manufacturing (enjoy pricing advantage relative imports)

+ Agriculture and tourism boosted; more jobs, and advantages for PH countryside

 

PSE-Index. / PH:PSEI ... All-data : 5-yr : 2-yr : 6-mo // All-Data-vs-PSE

dJFfaJo.gif

 

Philippines Stock Exch. / PH:PSE ... All-data : 5-yr : 2-yr : 6-mo :

FbsxwGd.gif

 

The weak peso has not hurt stocks - the index has remained stable.

In other countries, such as Japan, the weak yen helped their stock index

 

Since economic growth is the long term goal, short term weakness in the PHP may not be a bad thing,

so long as Du30's policies are helping the country's long term growth, They should do so.

 

 

======

*(in edit: 7/21/17):

PSE to raise more equity - & merge with PDS Group, a fixed income trading platform

 

A much-awaited union of capital market entities

Philippine Daily Inquirer / July 21, 2017

It has been a long and winding road for the Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE) in its bid to acquire PDS Holdings Corp., in turn part of the aspiration to unify the country’s capital market infrastructure. Now on its 25th year since the unification of the old Makati and Manila stock exchanges to create the bourse that we now know as the PSE, will it be successful in merging with the PDS Group this time around?

Recently, the PSE obtained commitment from other key shareholders of PDS to sell their shares, which will allow the former to gain majority control of PDS, the holding firm for fixed-income trading platform Philippine Dealing and Exchange Corp. (PDEx), Philippine Depositary and Trust Corp. (PDTC) and Philippine Securities Settlement Corp. (PSSC).

Read more: http://business.inquirer.net/233558/much-awaited-union-capital-market-entities#ixzz4nRnyggB3

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SM Earnings up 15%

(largest company by MarketCap in the Philippines?)

 

SM Prime Holdings / SMPH ... update : 5-yrs : 2-yr : 6-mos : 10d / Last: P37.20P

tv832X1.gif

 

 

SM Prime posts strong profit growth to P20B

 

+ 15% in net income in the first nine months - from P17.45B to P20.05B

+ Third quarter earnings up 16% from P4.86B to P5.66B

+ Revenues grew 12 percent compared with last year's first nine months

+ "Buoyant overall economy the benefits the whole property market"

+ "Timely expansion of malls, and launches of residential projects in the provinces, are contributing positively"

+ MALLS contributed 60 percent of overall revenues

+ Same mall sales sustained a 7% growth in revenues

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Megaworld stock is also pushing up near record highs

 

Megaworld / MEG... update : 5-yrs : 2-yr : 6-mos : 10d / Last: P5.69Po77o3cV.gif

 

Filinvest / FLI ... update : 5-yrs : 2-yr : 6-mos : P1.92

qY0aZS4.gif

 

MEG... update : 5-yrs : 2-yr : 6-mos :

xx

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RARE Disconnect, between Robinsons Land & Ayala Land

 

RLC-vs. ALI ... 5-yrs :

hotmqiI.gif

 

Is this an opportunity? (to buy cheap RLC stock, the gap is about 31%: ie 135% vs. 195%)

 

More research would be needed - but RLC looks interesting now

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DEVELOPERS with a Chinatown connection:

 

POPI / Prime Orion Phil. Inc ... All : 5-yr: 2-yr: 12-mo: 10-d : 3/24/16: P1.98 / 12/4/17: P2.05 + 3.53%

egQyxe3.gif

 

ALI / Ayalaland ... All : 5-yr: 2-yr: 12-mo: 10-d : 3/24/16: P35.85 : 12/4/17: P41.75 +16.5% / ALIvsPOPI : All : >'07

P76jW7a.gif

 

MEG / Megaworld ... All : 5-yr: 2-yr : 12-mo : 10-d : 3/29/16: P4.15 / 12/4/17: P5.15 +24.1% / AGI : All

mvP36Yw.gif

 

FLI / Filinvest Land ... All : 5-yr: 2-yr: 12-mo: 10-d : 3/29/16: P1.78 : 12/4/17: P1.80 +1.12% / FDC : All

u7qXgY5.gif

 

ALHI / Anchor Land ... All-Data : 5-yr: 2-yr: 12-mo: 10-d : 3/29/16: P7.77 : 12/4/17: P10.98 + 41.3%

QzdPA4g.gif

 

Qtr /Year : -LAND : CapVal : CV/ali : -ALI- : -POPI- : Ali/P : -MEG- : -FLI-- :
4Q /2011 : 000.0k : 100.0k : r6.60 : 15.16 : P0.44 : r34.5 : P1.70 : P0.99 :
1Q /2012 : 284.1k : 114.1k : r5.50 : 20.75 : P0.51 : r40.7 : P1.96 : P1.29 :
2Q /2012 : 284.6k : 115.4k : r5.34 : 21.60 : P0.46 : r47.0 : P2.19 : P1.28 :
3Q /2012 : 289.1k : 116.0k : r4.86 : 23.85 : P0.49 : r48.7 : P2.23 : P1.36 :
4Q /2012 : 291.8k : 118.0k : r4.46 : 26.45 : P0.55 : r48.1 : P2.77 : P1.49 :
1Q /2013 : 298.1k : 123.8k : r3.79 : 32.70 : P0.70 : r46.7 : P3.89 : P1.98 :
2Q /2013 : 304.2k : 128.7k : r4.23 : 30.40 : P0.55 : r55.3 : P3.30 : P1.70 :
3Q /2013 : 322.4k : 132.0k : r4.84 : 27.25 : P0.54 : r50.5 : P3.26 : P1.60 :
4Q /2013 : 341.5k : 134.9k : r5.45 : 24.75 : P0.41 : r60.4 : P3.24 : P1.41 :
1Q /2014 : 353.8k : 136.5k : r4.57 : 29.90 : P0.52 : r57.5 : P4.13 : P1.44 :
2Q /2014 : 366.4k : 138.1k : r4.53 : 30.50 : P0.57 : r53.5 : P4.50 : P1.63 :
3Q /2014 : 435.0k : 142.8k : r4.09 : 34.95 : P0.71 : r49.2 : P5.03 : P1.58 :
4Q /2014 : 440.0k : 144.5k : r3.83 : 33.70 : P0.69 : r51.8 : P4.68 : P1.53 :
1Q /2015 : 443.8k : 147.4k : r3.83 : 38.50 : P0.68 : r56.6 : P5.43 : P1.80 :
2Q /2015 : 452.5k : 149.0k : r3.99 : 37.30 : P2.04 : r18.3 : P4.77 : P1.86 :
3Q /2015 : 460.0k : 151.0k : r4.44 : 34.00 : P1.72 : r19.8 : P4.37 : P1.68 :
4Q /2015 : 500.0k : 151.0k : r4.38 : 34.45 : P1.83 : r18.8 : P4.25 : P1.81 :
1Q /2016 : 500? k : 152.0k : r4.31 : 35.25 : P1.97 : r17.9 : P4.15 : P1.77 :
2Q /2016 : 500? k : 147.6k : r3.80 : 38.80 : P1.81 : r21.4 : P4.65 : P1.99 :
3Q /2016 : 500? k : 146.5k : r3.73 : 39.25 : P1.98 : r19.8 : P4.72 : P1.83 :
4Q /2016 : 500? k : 150.6k : r4.71 : 32.00 : P1.90 : r16.8 : P3.57 : P1.53 :
1Q /2017 : 500? k : 154.6k : r4.57 : 33.80 : P1.97 : r17.2 : P3.51 : P1.67 :
2Q /2017 : 500? k : 161.5k : r4.06 : 39.75 : P2.20 : r18.1 : P4.30 : P1.67 :
3Q /2017 : 500? k : 167.0k : r3.84 : 43.50 : P2.15 : r20.2 : P5.23 : P2.03 : ALHI :
12/ 04/17 : ================ >> 41.75 : P2.05 : r20.4 : P5.15 : P1.80 : 10.98
4Q /2017 :
========
Compare:
Colliers-- : 500.0k psm : At Q4-2015, Philippines Report
OPDI makati land: 500k x 639 sqm = P 320mn (6.7%) of POPI MktCap (P4.72bn = P2.00 x 2.37bn shs)

 

I find the stability of the Land-to-ALI ratio (from 20xx to 20xx) to be remarkable !

 

> SSC-tutuban: http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=1413210

Chinatown / Divisoria is a part this thread too:

60097508fb7822f229e8b8406657ac8ed218c001

That is Noble Place in the background, a building by Megaworld which completes in March 2017,

 

> MORE on Chinatown/Binondo thread: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=20725

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A possible explanation for SM Corporation stock outperformance.

 

=====

PH: Smph / SM Prime Holdings Inc. ... All-data : Latest: P35.90 (12/6/2017) /range: 26.20 to 38.25

zvYNAGS.gif

=====

 

SMDC is the leading propery developer in the Bay Area, and the fact that the stock is the strongest amongst

all the major developers is another indication that the Bay Area is becoming the new "BGC", or the new "Makati".

While Ayala Land and Megaworld stock price has only recently reached their 2013-2014 heights, SM Holdings

has gone straight up.

 

There is a strong secondary market for SMDC and Federal Land condos in the Bay Areas.

A 27sq meter condo in Breeze residences which a few years ago could be acquired for

3,2M PHP now has an official 5,4M PHP price tag, and can be sold on the secondary market

for about 4 to 4,2Million PHP.

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"

SMDC is the leading propery developer in the Bay Area, and the fact that the stock is the strongest amongst

all the major developers is another indication that the Bay Area is becoming the new "BGC", or the new "Makati"."

 

Seems to be more of a Tourist area, than a CBD.

Let's see how many jobs go in there, and if Job formations can keep up with the Huge rise in Bay Area supply

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