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rigger

US Presidential Polls 2016-the run in.

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Hopefully it's correct on this time too.

 

Rasmussen have released their's now and Clinton is ahead by 2 points, but this is within the margin of error. This makes no sense though as they are tied at 84% for their own parties voters and 11% from the other parties voters. Yet Trump leads by 8% among non-affiliated voters. The only way this can be accurate is if they poll a higher % of Democrats, which means the poll is skewed and actually not accurate. So good news for Trump.

 

Trump has the support of 84% of Republicans and 11% of Democrats. He leads by eight points among voters not affiliated with either major party. Clinton gets 84% of the Democratic vote and 11% of GOP voters.

 

 

 

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/white_house_watch_nov7

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If you go off the last big election,the mid terms then past vote weighting should reflect that not 2012.

 

There's been a large bias towards Shillary in the polling

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I was sleeping when the big rally came in US stocks.

Maybe I can buy some puts in Asian Trading

 

Stocks are not anticipating THIS -- I still think we are On Track for a TRUMP LANDSLIDE

 

ELECTION SHOCK: TRUMP OUTPERFORMS ROMNEY
+130,000 FLORIDA

+142,000 NORTH CAROLINA
JUMPS TO LEAD COLORADO

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Florida Clinton +1 +1 +2 Trump +4

Ohio Trump +7

North Carolina Clinton +1 +2 + Tie

Pennsylvania Trump+1

Nevada Clinton +1 Trump +1

New Mexico Clinton +2 +8

New hampshire +1 +11

Virginia Clinton +5 +6

 

 

Penn is a big big poll score for the Don.

Initial signs looking good in Florida and North Carolina.

via Drudge

Florida.

Mitt Romney went into Election Day down 161,000 in absentee ballots and early voting. He ended up losing the state by 74,000.

This time, in a dramatic surprise twist, Trump is only down 32,500! And Republicans tend to outvote Democrats on Election Day in Florida.'

 

 

 

North Carolina

In 2012, Romney hit Election Day down 447,000 votes, based on early ballots. He went on to win the state by 97,000 votes.

Now, the DRUDGE REPORT can reveal, Trump opens Election Day down 305,000! '

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I was sleeping when the big rally came in US stocks.

Maybe I can buy some puts in Asian Trading

 

Stocks are not anticipating THIS -- I still think we are On Track for a TRUMP LANDSLIDE

 

ELECTION SHOCK: TRUMP OUTPERFORMS ROMNEY

+130,000 FLORIDA

+142,000 NORTH CAROLINA

JUMPS TO LEAD COLORADO

Just got back to my PC and realised I hadn't pushed post for my last.

 

I think there is a significant chance of a Trump landslide.I think there's zero chance of a Shillary landslide

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I was sleeping when the big rally came in US stocks.

Maybe I can buy some puts in Asian Trading

 

Stocks are not anticipating THIS -- I still think we are On Track for a TRUMP LANDSLIDE

 

ELECTION SHOCK: TRUMP OUTPERFORMS ROMNEY

+130,000 FLORIDA

+142,000 NORTH CAROLINA

JUMPS TO LEAD COLORADO

worth noting Trump still 5.5 on Betfair.

 

The more this election goes on the more it reminds me of Brexit

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Daybreak Poll : http://cesrusc.org/election/
===========

11/07 : T 48.0 - C 43.2 = T 4.8 (u: 08.8) xxx

11/06 : T 48.2 - C 42.6 = T 5.6 (u: 09.2) 60.9% : advantage, means 39.1/ 2 + 19.5 = 80.4% needed by C from Undecideds Not likely!
11/05 : T 48.1 - C 42.6 = T 5.5 (u: 09.3) 59.1%
11/04 : T 48.0 - C 42.6 = T 5.4 (u: 09.4) 57.4%

 

> Betfair : GBP1000 on each : https://www.betfair....4.8325569&exp=e
Clinton : 1.33-1.34 (x 0.335: GBP335) == Trump ; 4.3-4.4 ( 3.35: GBP3,350) = + HRC: 10.00

BETS

11/08 : -------------------------------------------------------------------- / 1.215 : 0.215 : 4.651 : +0.02% : 5.765 : 4.650 :
11/07 : -------------------------------------------------------------------- / 1.215 : 0.215 : 4.651 : - 2.09% : 5.750 : 4.750 :
11/04 : -------------------------------------------------------------------- / 1.425 : 0.425 : 2.353 : - 3.96% : 3.450 : 2.450 :
------- : Hillary-PP---- : Flip-- : Edge- : Trump-------- : Ratio- / Hillary-BF---- : Flip-- : Edge- : Trump--------- : Ratio - : Ave-R.

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NEW POLLING Service : It is NOT Close

 

The Polls Are Fake, Believe It

 

Trump destroys Clinton in Florida !

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This one sneaked through last night

 

Michigan Trump +1

 

 

Ouch!!!! Michigan is clearly in play and they all vote on the day so that's bad for Shillary.

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http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/11/donald-trump-is-like-brexit-in-three-key-ways/

 

Some great work on his website from Lord Ashcroft.

 

STARTS with this:

"BEYOND BREXIT!” “Brexit plus!” “Brexit times ten!” Throughout his presidential run Donald Trump has claimed the mantle of the campaign that mobilised popular discontent to defy the odds and take the UK out of the European Union in June’s referendum.

 

And with some justification. For the last seven weeks my polling team has conducted focus groups around the U.S. for my Ashcroft In America project, and the first things to strike us were the echoes from the polling on the British referendum that occupied the first half of our year. There are three essential parallels.

First, the Trump and Brexit movements have both harnessed a desire for change that goes beyond dry questions of policy. The debate in Britain was about more than the technicalities of the UK’s relationship with its neighbouring states. As I found in my post-vote poll, Leave voters thought life was getting worse for people like them, were suspicious of globalisation and unhappy with the level of immigration, and saw more threats than opportunities in the way society and the economy were changing. The crossover with Trump’s appeal is obvious.

 

Second, voters are having to decide how much risk they are prepared to take in return for the change they hope for, but whose consequences are unknowable...

 

BUT WHO IS HE ??

 

Lord Ashcroft's Millions (2010)

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STARTS with this:

"BEYOND BREXIT!” “Brexit plus!” “Brexit times ten!” Throughout his presidential run Donald Trump has claimed the mantle of the campaign that mobilised popular discontent to defy the odds and take the UK out of the European Union in June’s referendum.

 

And with some justification. For the last seven weeks my polling team has conducted focus groups around the U.S. for my Ashcroft In America project, and the first things to strike us were the echoes from the polling on the British referendum that occupied the first half of our year. There are three essential parallels.

First, the Trump and Brexit movements have both harnessed a desire for change that goes beyond dry questions of policy. The debate in Britain was about more than the technicalities of the UK’s relationship with its neighbouring states. As I found in my post-vote poll, Leave voters thought life was getting worse for people like them, were suspicious of globalisation and unhappy with the level of immigration, and saw more threats than opportunities in the way society and the economy were changing. The crossover with Trump’s appeal is obvious.

 

Second, voters are having to decide how much risk they are prepared to take in return for the change they hope for, but whose consequences are unknowable...

 

BUT WHO IS HE ??

 

Lord Ashcroft's Millions (2010)

He's a Tory .............however,his polling for the last general election was some of the most comprehensive and he released it for free .All round,not a bad bloke and actually rather realistic..

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"The reporting of the Huffington Post has been laughable.

He's going to win Florida and Ohio"

 

Clinton Campaign PANICS As Rust Belt Polls Tighten

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Jim Rickards just tweeted: 'I'm seeing some crazy stuff in the exit polling. Just, wow'.

 

Someone asked him to clarify and he says Clinton is up +1.5 in battlegrounds but that women vote early and men late. He says she needed to be up +2.5 and she's not.

 

He seems confident this is good for Trump.

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Infowars:

Scientific Poll Shows Trump With "Yuge" Lead in Swing States

 

"Female voters NOT with her"

Maybe not enough votes to be meaningful

 

(the FIRST little result):

NEWS ALERT : Trump On Top Lead CLINTON , Dixville Notch, New Hampshire

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J3CCIkmr4f0

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Stxy is guessing that Trump will win FLA (based on early results)

 

So far he is ahead of the Satanic One in VA, a state he is expected to lose

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HOW to stay ontop of the Election Results:

==========

NYT Map-- : http://www.nytimes.com/
(But the Times predictions seem biased towards You-Know-Who)

+ + +
Styx HH Live :


====

 

Styx supports Trump, so his comments are antidote to NYT spin

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His analysis is non-partisan, I'm watching him all night instead of Sky or BBC.

 

Trump went to 9/1 a few minutes ago. I'm guessing because Clinton has a lead in Texas, but this is because blue areas have declared so far. I was expecting Trump odds to be down going by the results so far.

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HOW to stay ontop of the Election Results:

==========

NYT Map-- : http://www.nytimes.com/

(But the Times predictions seem biased towards You-Know-Who)

+ + +

Styx HH Live :

====

 

Styx supports Trump, so his comments are antidote to NYT spin

 

 

I'm watching the feed on clinton news network.the detail is actually quite good.

 

Obviously you have to watch them wetting themselves for clinton,but there you go.

 

now running styx and watching the pictures on cnn

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His analysis is non-partisan, I'm watching him all night instead of Sky or BBC.

 

Trump went to 9/1 a few minutes ago. I'm guessing because Clinton has a lead in Texas, but this is because blue areas have declared so far. I was expecting Trump odds to be down going by the results so far.

he briefly touched 11/1 but the market was thin.

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