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US Presidential Polls 2016-the run in.

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https://mishtalk.com/2016/11/02/assessing-trumps-chances-with-six-days-remaining/

'

Winding Path

nate-silver-2016-11-02.png?w=529&h=361

I disagree with Silver on Nevada and North Carolina. Earlier today Silver flipped on Florida, and before his flip, I disagreed with Silver on Florida.

Mentally place those states in Trump’s column, and we are pretty much where we were heading into the first debate: with Trump needing one more state.

Even the likely candidate states are the same: Colorado, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.

This is where it gets interesting.

Expected Margins

nate-silver-2016-11-02a.png?w=529&h=302

Spotlight On Michigan

silver-michigan.png?w=529&h=277

If we only look at the three most recent polls, Trump has a decent chance of winning Michigan.

In fact, Michigan seems to be Trump’s best shot, followed by Colorado, then New Hampshire.

By the way, even Wisconsin is in play. The most recent poll has Hillary with a mere one point lead, on an adjusted basis.

A slew of states are in play. Trump needs just one of them, assuming I am correct that Florida, North Carolina, and Nevada are a given.'

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Would you be shocked if Hillary won just California, New Mexico and 4-5 other smaller states?

 

In California,

the Hispanics, and the Satanists in Hollywood, will be the last the surrender to the inevitability of The Don

 

Could New York State even be in play?

The Dems will tell you : No way

 

The Satanic One is now in danger of losing Black Votes (by them not voting, or switching)

Her message is to inspire Voters to vote, by trying to pump up fears of The Donald

 

The Intelligence Report 11/04/16 FBI found damning new emails from Clinton’s private server

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0RfEkGb2uaY

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Would you be shocked if Hillary won just California, New Mexico and 4-5 other smaller states?

 

In California,

the Hispanics, and the Satanists in Hollywood, will be the last the surrender to the inevitability of The Don

 

Could New York State even be in play?

The Dems will tell you : No way

In all honesty,I think there's a 10%+ chance of the Don sweeping all the toss up states

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Would you be shocked if Hillary won just California, New Mexico and 4-5 other smaller states?

 

In California,

the Hispanics, and the Satanists in Hollywood, will be the last the surrender to the inevitability of The Don

 

Could New York State even be in play?

The Dems will tell you : No way

 

The Satanic One is now in danger of losing Black Votes (by them not voting, or switching)

Her message is to inspire Voters to vote, by trying to pump up fears of The Donald

 

The Intelligence Report 11/04/16 FBI found damning new emails from Clinton’s private server

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0RfEkGb2uaY

New Mexico is now a toss up state!!! Which says it all.

 

Market's are pricing Don at 3.95 Betfair.He looks nearly a 2.2/2.4 bet to me on the polling alone.Hilary still slight favourite should be further out.

 

Real world..... allowing for polling anomalies,I think it's real close.

 

Only one with a chance of a landslide is the Don.There are many states where Shillary has 0% chance of winning.

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Would you be shocked if Hillary won just California, and 4-5 other smaller states?

 

Rick the shillary Wilson is now admitting the Trump 'revelations' aren't coming as the media won't run with them. Translation: 'they never existed and I've been bluffing all week'

 

No doubt there's worse to come for Clinton so a landslide is possible.

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Joe of the Morning Cucks speaks some reality to Hillary-complacent fools

 

‘You’re Really Disgusting’: Joe Scarborough Rips Into Media Members Who Say He Supports Trump

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qo39bOCIKGE

They are mostly still in denial.

The Trump victory will leave much egg on many faces

 

 

The MSNBC Witch is also in denial

RACHEL MADDOW Latest polls suggest Clinton extending lead

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K5EOAqsaEMs

 

(this has some dated information)

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DRUDGE Report headlines - all tied up in Swing states

 

Donald+Trump+GOP+Presidential+Nominee+Do

COLORADO: TIED
MICHIGAN: TIED
NEW HAMPSHIRE: TIED
NEVADA: TIED
PENNSYLVANIA: TIED

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SR 1320 – Trump Rockets North Again in Daybreak Poll

 

JUMPS favoring Trump, from Women and Hispanics.

Wobbles among Hispanics?

 

Daybreak Poll : http://cesrusc.org/election/
===========
11/05 : T 48.1 - C 42.6 = T 5.5 (u: 09.3) 59.1% advantage, means 40.9/ 2 + 20.5 = 79.6% needed by C? Not likely!
11/04 : T 48.0 - C 42.6 = T 5.4 (u: 09.4) 57.4%
11/03 : T 46.9 - C 43.4 = T 4.5 (u: 09.7) 46.4%
11/02 : T 47.5 - C 42.5 = T 5.0 (u: 10.0) 50.0%
11/01 : T 47.8 - C 42.4 = T 5.4 (u: 09.8) 55.1%
10/31 : T 46.9 - C 43.3 = T 3.6 (u: 09.8) 36.7% Advantage in Undecided needed to Bridge the Gap - Impossible?

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Trump Landslide? Election forecast from Dr. Gerard Lameiro - Focus Today

 

Trump : 339 Electoral Votes

Clinton: 199

===

Trump he predicts will win the Popular Vote by 5.7%

 

Nine Reasons to Expect a Trump Landslide

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SR 1320 – Trump Rockets North Again in Daybreak Poll

 

JUMPS favoring Trump, from Women and Hispanics.

Wobbles among Hispanics?

 

Daybreak Poll : http://cesrusc.org/election/

===========

11/05 : T 48.1 - C 42.6 = T 5.5 (u: 09.3) 59.1% advantage, means 40.9/ 2 + 20.5 = 79.6% needed by C? Not likely!

11/04 : T 48.0 - C 42.6 = T 5.4 (u: 09.4) 57.4%

11/03 : T 46.9 - C 43.4 = T 4.5 (u: 09.7) 46.4%

11/02 : T 47.5 - C 42.5 = T 5.0 (u: 10.0) 50.0%

11/01 : T 47.8 - C 42.4 = T 5.4 (u: 09.8) 55.1%

10/31 : T 46.9 - C 43.3 = T 3.6 (u: 09.8) 36.7% Advantage in Undecided needed to Bridge the Gap - Impossible?

 

Bill's missing the point that women live longer hence there's more women nationwide.Otherwise,good analysis as ever.

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Daybreak Poll : http://cesrusc.org/election/
===========

11/06 : T 48.2 - C 42.6 = T 5.6 (u: 09.2) 60.9% : advantage, means 39.1/ 2 + 19.5 = 80.4% needed by C from Undecideds Not likely!
11/05 : T 48.1 - C 42.6 = T 5.5 (u: 09.3) 59.1%
11/04 : T 48.0 - C 42.6 = T 5.4 (u: 09.4) 57.4%

 

> Betfair : GBP1000 on each : https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?id=924.8325569&exp=e
Clinton : 1.33-1.34 (x 0.335: GBP335) == Trump ; 4.3-4.4 ( 3.35: GBP3,350) = + HRC: 10.00
Daybreak
11/04 : -------------------------------------------------------------------- / 1.425 : 0.425 : 2.353 : -3.96% : 3.45 : 2.450 :
11/07 : -------------------------------------------------------------------- / 1.215 : 0.215 : 4.651 : -2.09% : 5.75 : 4.750 :
------- : Hillary-PP---- : Flip-- : Edge- : Trump-------- : Ratio- / Hillary-BF--- : Flip-- : Edge- : Trump------- : Ratio - : Ave-R.

 

Wow!

You can make 4.7X your money, backing the Don?!

 

That looks pretty attractive to me.

I may buy some Puts, if they reflect similar odds

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Daybreak Poll : http://cesrusc.org/election/

===========

11/06 : T 48.2 - C 42.6 = T 5.6 (u: 09.2) 60.9% : advantage, means 39.1/ 2 + 19.5 = 80.4% needed by C from Undecideds Not likely!

11/05 : T 48.1 - C 42.6 = T 5.5 (u: 09.3) 59.1%

11/04 : T 48.0 - C 42.6 = T 5.4 (u: 09.4) 57.4%

 

> Betfair : GBP1000 on each : https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?id=924.8325569&exp=e

Clinton : 1.33-1.34 (x 0.335: GBP335) == Trump ; 4.3-4.4 ( 3.35: GBP3,350) = + HRC: 10.00

Daybreak

11/04 : -------------------------------------------------------------------- / 1.425 : 0.425 : 2.353 : -3.96% : 3.45 : 2.450 :

11/07 : -------------------------------------------------------------------- / 1.215 : 0.215 : 4.651 : -2.09% : 5.75 : 4.750 :

------- : Hillary-PP---- : Flip-- : Edge- : Trump-------- : Ratio- / Hillary-BF--- : Flip-- : Edge- : Trump------- : Ratio - : Ave-R.

 

Wow!

You can make 4.7X your money, backing the Don?!

 

That looks pretty attractive to me.

I may buy some Puts, if they reflect similar odds

 

London is back up today.Remember Brexit if Trump wins S&P will tank.

 

Personally,I suspect I'll be loading some more at 5/1.Hopefully I'll get some better odds tomorrow.

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Daybreak Poll : http://cesrusc.org/election/

===========

11/06 : T 48.2 - C 42.6 = T 5.6 (u: 09.2) 60.9% : advantage, means 39.1/ 2 + 19.5 = 80.4% needed by C from Undecideds Not likely!

11/05 : T 48.1 - C 42.6 = T 5.5 (u: 09.3) 59.1%

11/04 : T 48.0 - C 42.6 = T 5.4 (u: 09.4) 57.4%

 

> Betfair : GBP1000 on each : https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?id=924.8325569&exp=e

Clinton : 1.33-1.34 (x 0.335: GBP335) == Trump ; 4.3-4.4 ( 3.35: GBP3,350) = + HRC: 10.00

Daybreak

11/04 : -------------------------------------------------------------------- / 1.425 : 0.425 : 2.353 : -3.96% : 3.45 : 2.450 :

11/07 : -------------------------------------------------------------------- / 1.215 : 0.215 : 4.651 : -2.09% : 5.75 : 4.750 :

------- : Hillary-PP---- : Flip-- : Edge- : Trump-------- : Ratio- / Hillary-BF--- : Flip-- : Edge- : Trump------- : Ratio - : Ave-R.

 

Wow!

You can make 4.7X your money, backing the Don?!

 

That looks pretty attractive to me.

I may buy some Puts, if they reflect similar odds

 

http://www.investors.com/politics/trump-lead-widens-to-2-his-biggest-yet-despite-november-surprise-ibdtipp-poll/

http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/

 

IBD Trump+2

LA Times Trump +5

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worth watching the video.

 

'drain the swamp'....

 

http://pittsburgh.cbslocal.com/2016/11/06/donald-trump-draws-big-crowd-in-moon-twp-days-before-election/

'

As many as 10,000 were welcomed into the hangar, and thousands more were stopped at the gates.

“When we win on Nov. 8…we are going to drain…the…swamp,” the candidate shouted alongside the crowd.'

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Scott Rasmussen has been on Fox today saying that if Trump wins Florida he wins. I've not seen a new Rasmussen poll but it must be very close or Trump in front for him to say that. Apparently

 

LA Times Daybreak Poll and IBD have Trump winning it, most of the others have Clinton.

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Scott Rasmussen has been on Fox today saying that if Trump wins Florida he wins. I've not seen a new Rasmussen poll but it must be very close or Trump in front for him to say that. Apparently

 

LA Times Daybreak Poll and IBD have Trump winning it, most of the others have Clinton.

Not seen a Rasmmusen poll on RCP in days.

 

North Carolina Clinton +2

Florida Clinton +1

Ohio Trump +7

Virginia Clinton +6

 

The Don should be happy with those given all the past vote weighting/polling caveats.

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Scott Rasmussen has been on Fox today saying that if Trump wins Florida he wins. I've not seen a new Rasmussen poll but it must be very close or Trump in front for him to say that. Apparently

 

LA Times Daybreak Poll and IBD have Trump winning it, most of the others have Clinton.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/10/14/why_pay_attention_to_the_la_times_poll.html

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