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US Presidential Polls 2016-the run in.

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Worth noting that this set of polls moves Pennsylvania into toss up status

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map.html

 

RCP's EV count

Clinton 226

Toss Up 132

Trump 132

 

 

Toss ups

 

Ohio (18)

Florida (29) North Carolina (15) Pennsylvania (20) Colorado (9) Nevada (6) Iowa (6) New Hampshire (4) Virginia (13) Arizona (11) Maine CD2 (1)

 

 

I personally think Arizona now looking safe,Iowa,Ohio too.

 

Trump will defo beat that Mr Wall St Mitt in the tally.

 

Gotta say,I momentum trade stocks sometimes and trump is looking good running into the finish.

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Fox & Friends 11/02/16 Trump Leads Clinton in Poll AFTER, FBI Email Scandal ,Private Server Exposed

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=07gUi_I_5sA

 

Advice from the Donald to those with "Buyers Remorse"

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Weren't NH and Colorado relatively safe blue seats not long ago too?

Yeah,like last week lol

 

Trump down from 3.7 to 3.4 on this news

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Yeah,like last week lol

 

Trump down from 3.7 to 3.4 on this news

 

All of the momentum is Trump's at the moment. Not sure how this is going to swing back now with more damaging info coming daily for Clinton.

 

Clinton's odds are the highest I've seen them since the start of the race.

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SHOCK POLL: TRUMP PASSES 50% WITH DEFINITE VOTERS...

 

I am still predicting a Trump Landslide (absent vote-rigging) because:

 

 

+ the polls are still over-polling Democrats

+ the polls are not capturing all of Trump's "new" voters

+ Trump's voters are more committed and WILL vote

+ Undecided independents will mostly move to Trump

+ The news flow is now strongly anti-Clinton

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Odd, this:

Florida Clinton +4

 

I think Trump will win FLA easily

 

In Israel:

The total number of votes coming from Israel, 30,000, is significantly lower than voter turnout in Israel in 2012, which some say is because of the candidates running.
Republican nominee Donald Trump won the US presidential vote among American citizens voting from Israel, according to an iVoteIsrael exit poll taken this week, but in an election plagued with low favorability ratings for both candidates, he had a far less impressive showing than past Republicans have in Israel.

As The Jerusalem Post exclusively reported on Wednesday, Trump received 49% of the Israeli-American vote, while Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton got 44%, according to the poll conducted by get-out-thevote organization iVoteIsrael and KEEVOON Global Research.

. . .
Despite Trump winning among Americans in Israel, more of them are registered Democrats (33%) than Republicans (27%). Of Trump’s votes in Israel, 25% came from Democrats, and 10% of Clinton’s votes came from Republicans.

==

 

(See Photo in the article: So THAT is where Huma has gone.): http://www.jpost.com...xit-poll-471561

 

I smell a landslide in this, with 25% of DEMS voting for Trump, even in Israel !

It seems like the most vocal opposition against Trump is nearly all Jewish folk

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Bill Mitchell says most polls are using 8% to 10% more Democrats!

 

Hmm.

If 10% more, and 25% of that Dem vote goes to Trump, then it jacks up the Results by +5% for the E-Empress.

 

But I think the polls are missing: "new" Trump voters, and also missing that many who say they support The E-E will not bother to vote

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Democrats unclear if billionaire spending is pro-Clinton or anti-Trump.

NEW YORK – One of the most generous donors to the Democratic Party this year has no track record in political giving, to speak of, and wasn’t alive when Hillary Clinton, their party nominee for president, began her public life as first lady of Arkansas.

Facebook cofounder Dustin Moskovitz, a 32-year-old who once said he was uncomfortable making political donations, has now contributed $35 million to help elect Clinton – or perhaps more accurately – to stop Donald Trump in his bid for the White House.

“The Republican Party, and Donald Trump in particular, is running on a zero-sum vision, stressing a false contest between their constituency and the rest of the world,” Moskovitz wrote in September, explaining his initial gift of $20m.

==

> http://www.jpost.com/US-Elections/Hillary-Clinton/A-32-year-old-Jewish-billionaire-tops-Clinton-donor-roll-470845

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FEAR FACTOR - can explain the moves in the polls

 

Coffee with Scott Adams (11-02-2016)

 

It leaves Trump in a strong position, since people fear Hillary's possible warmongering,

more than they fear Trump's possible womanizing

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Utah has been billed as a potential spanner in the works for Trump, so this looks good to get that out of the way.

This was something I posted on a week ago.Some polls in Utah had Trump in low single leads and at the time,Trump's route to 270 was somewhat narrower than today.

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Potential game changer in

New Hampshire trump +1

Colorado Tie and a Clinton +6-worth noting Colorado is all postal votes I believe

New Hampshire Trump +1 and a tie and a +5

Florida Clinton +4 and +3

Utah Trump +12 and a +11 and a +6

Texas Trump + 14

Arizona Trump,+5

Pennsylvania Clinton +1

Michigan Trump +3

Georgia Trump +1

 

Interesting here is that Pennsylvania and Michigan are in play for the first time

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Pennsylvania Clinton +1

Michigan Trump +3

 

I think Trump will win both, given the sampling bias

Penn we knew about but Michigan has come in from being a safe 5%+ leans Democrat state to being a toss up.Just checked Michigan last went Rep in 1988...............

 

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map.html

Clinton 226 Trump 180 and Toss up 132..............................................A week ago clinton was on 260.............interesting times.

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SR 1314 – Trump Will Crush Clinton - Latest Electoral College Prediction

 

Looks like the "stain" of Hillary is being chased OUT of the country

 

Daybreak Poll : http://cesrusc.org/election/
===========
11/03 : T 46.9 - C 43.4 = T 4.5 (u: 09.7) 46.4% advantage, means 53.6/ 2 + 26.8 = 73.2% needed by C? Not likely!
11/02 : T 47.5 - C 42.5 = T 5.0 (u: 10.0) 50.0% advantage, means 50.0/ 2 + 25.0 = 75.0% needed by C? Not possible!
11/01 : T 47.8 - C 42.4 = T 5.4 (u: 09.8) 55.1%
10/31 : T 46.9 - C 43.3 = T 3.6 (u: 09.8) 36.7% Advantage in Undecided needed to Bridge the Gap - Impossible?
10/30 : T 46.6 - C 43.2 = T 3.4 (u: 10.2) 33.3%
10/29 : T 46.0 - C 44.1 = T 1.9 (u: 09.1) 20.9%
10/28 : T 46.2 - C 43.8 = T 2.4 (u: 10.0) 24.0%
10/27 : T 45.8 - C 44.1 = T 1.7 (u: 10.1) 16.8%
10/26 : T 45.2 - C 44.5 = T 0.7 (u: 10.3) 06.8%
10/25 : T 45.3 - C 44.2 = T 1.1 (u: 10.5) 10.5%
10/24 : T 44.1 - C 45.0 = C 0.9 (u: 10.9) ++++
10/23 : T 43.8 - C 45.1 = C 1.3 (u: 11.1) ++++
10/22 : T 44.4 - C 44.1 = T 0.3 (u: 11.5) 02.6%. . .
08/13 : T 41.6 - C 46.3 = C 4.7 (u: 12.1)-38.8%
8/13 = "Peak Bitch", the only day that HRC had a winning margin !
====

 

 

------- : Hillary-PP---- : Flip-- : Edge- : Trump-------- : Ratio-- / Hillary-BF--- : Flip-- : Edge- : Trump------- : Ratio - : Ave-R. :
10/29 : 02/07 : 0.285 : 3.509 : 21.6% : 11/04 : 2.750 : 9.65- H / 1.335 : 0.335 : 2.985 :-11.7% : 4.35 : 3.335 : 10.0- H : 9.83- H
10/31 : 01/03 : 0.333 : 3.003 : 16.7% : 05/02 : 2.500 : 7.51- H / 1.345 : 0.345 : 2.899 :-8.66% : 4.15 : 3.150 : 9.13- H : 8.32- H
11/01 : 01/03 : 0.333 : 3.003 : 16.7% : 05/02 : 2.500 : 7.51- H / 1.325 : 0.325 : 3.077 :-4.00% : 4.20 : 3.200 : 9.61- H : 8.56- H
P.M. - : 04/11 : 0.364 : 2.747 : 18.1% : 09/04 : 2.250 : 6.18- H / 1.395 : 0.395 : 2.532 :-7.42% : 3.72 : 2.720 :

11/04 : -------------------------------------------------------------------- / 1.425 : 0.425 : 2.353 : -3.96% : 3.45 : 2.450 :

------- : Hillary-PP---- : Flip-- : Edge- : Trump-------- : Ratio-- / Hillary-BF--- : Flip-- : Edge- : Trump------- : Ratio - : Ave-R. :

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NEWS ALERT , Lou Dobbs ; trump expands path to 270 [ ATTACKS H.C ]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BLSs5K9_Yso

 

Published on Nov 4, 2016

 

Lou: "I find it astonishing that not a single (major?) news paper has withdrawn its endorsement of her"

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Pennsylvania Clinton +1

Michigan Trump +3

 

I think Trump will win both, given the sampling bias

That's a distinct possiblity.My thesis has always been that Trump will underpoll.Whether his new found polling strength is long term Trump voters admitting they're voting for him or new support,we'll never quite know.But I suspect the social stigma from expressing support for him has dissappeared with Hilary's long list of Wikileaks shame.

 

I've felt his demographic-much like Brexit-has a substantial portion who haven't voted in decades of eligibilty.I reason that the bulk of new voters will side with Trump given people have had twenty years to be inspired by Shillary.Is that a sensible way to look at new voters..................? I pose the question.

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http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-idUSKBN12Y1YA

'

The race for the Oval Office has tightened significantly in the past week, as several swing states that Trump must win shifted from favoring Clinton to toss-ups, according to the Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation project.

The project, a survey of about 15,000 people every week in all 50 states plus Washington, D.C., found the two candidates were now tied in Florida and North Carolina and that Clinton’s lead in Michigan had narrowed so much the state was too close to call. Ohio remained a dead heat, with Pennsylvania now tilting to Clinton.

A Reuters/Ipsos national daily tracking poll found on Wednesday that Clinton was leading Trump by 6 percentage points, the same advantage she held before FBI Director James Comey sent a letter to Congress last week saying the agency had found a new cache of emails potentially related to its probe of Clinton emails.'

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