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US Presidential Polls 2016-the run in.

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A little touch of The Donald...

 

All his campaigning must be one of the things that helped get this:

Fox & Friends (10/31/16) 'Poll'ing Ahead - Donald Trump Leads By 4 Points In Florida #1

 

Remember the scene from Henry V : "A little touch of Harry..."

"Walking from watch to watch, from tent to tent..."

 

"The King's but a man just as me... He dare not show the appearance of Fear."

"There are few die well, who die at battle."

 

The Donald is not quite the orator as Shakespeare's Henry V, but he is getting better

 

Donald Trump Speech Today 10/26/16 Holds Campaign Rally in Charlotte, NC [ Attack Hillary , Obama ]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vBnlK4X4H7U

 

"I'm asking for your vote. And i will not let you down,,, I will be your greatest champion,"

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BOOM!

Dem Pollster Says Election Could be Like 1980 a 40 State Trump Landslide

 

Pat Caddell was once the most famous pollster in America.

A smart guy, a harvard grad, who spoke months ago about how the MSM was rigging the polls

=========

 

According to former Jimmy Carter pollster Pat Caddell, Hillary Clinton is hemorrhaging support as a result of the FBI announcement and we could see a repeat of the 1980 election when anti-establishment candidate Ronald Reagan won in a landslide.

 

Caddell drew comparisons to the 1980 presidential race, which was close right up until the final days before the electorate abandoned Carter and rallied around the anti-establishment candidate, leading to Reagan taking victory in a landslide.

Caddell noted that Carter’s entire campaign had been built around portraying Reagan as unqualified and “dangerous,” in a similar vein to how Clinton has demonized Trump.

Caddell explained that the polling between Reagan and Carter was close up until the final weekend when “the dam broke” and Reagan shot ahead by ten points.

Stating that he had been looking at the data regarding unfavorability ratings for both Clinton and Trump, Caddell noted that since Friday, large numbers of voters had been structurally “moving against the status quo – the incumbent who is essentially Hillary Clinton.”

As an ABC News poll found, Hillary’s unfavorability rating just hit its highest ever mark.

Caddell said that the latest information regarding the FBI re-opening its investigation into Hillary’s email scandal was the “popper” that “could open up significantly before it’s over,” meaning it would be the decisive factor that enables Trump to defeat Hillary.

==

> http://www.infowars.com/pollster-the-dam-is-about-to-break-on-hillary/

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Voting Early, and in Droves: Over 22 Million Ballots Are Already In

By JUGAL K. PATEL

OCT. 31, 2016

 

With eight days until the general election, more than 22 million people have already voted, through early voting and absentee ballots.

In many states, the number of early voters is higher than at the same point in the 2012 cycle. In Texas, however, the number of early voters is sharply higher than in the previous presidential election. A closer look at those votes — most of which were cast before the F.B.I. director, James B. Comey, announced on Friday that the bureau was reviewing a new trove of emails related to Hillary Clinton — also shows that early voting has increased among Hispanics across all states with available data and largely decreased among young people.

 

==

> http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/10/31/us/elections/earlyvoters.html?_r=0

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BETS : Original, and updated

======
> Paddy Power: GBP1000 on each : http://www.paddypowe..._grp_ids=791149
Clinton : 2 / 7 (x 0.285: GBP285) == Trump : 11/4 ( 2.75: GBP2,750) = + HRC: 9.65

> Betfair : GBP1000 on each : https://www.betfair....4.8325569&exp=e
Clinton : 1.33-1.34 (x 0.335: GBP335) == Trump ; 4.3-4.4 ( 3.35: GBP3,350) = + HRC: 10.00

===============

 

------- : Hillary-PP---- : Trump-------- : Ratio-- / Hillary-BF--- : Trump------- : Ratio - : Ave-R. :
10/29 : 02/07 : 0.285 : 11/04 : 2.750 : 9.65- H / 1.335 : 0.335 : 4.35 : 3.335 : 10.0- H : 9.83- H
10/31 : 01/03 : 0.333 : 05/02 : 2.500 : 7.51- H / 1.345 : 0.345 : 4.15 : 3.150 : 9.13- H : 8.32- H

11/01 : 01/03 : 0.333 : 05/02 : 2.500 : 7.51- H / 1.325 : 0.325 : 4.20 : 3.200 : 9.61- H : 8.56- H

 

Looks like a great time to BUY TRUMP.

And some here may do that after watching THIS

 

SR 1307 – DayBreak Poll - Trump Soars as Crooked Clinton Plummets


Unless she can somehow steal it through Voter fraud, I think the Satanic One will lose in a Landslide

 

Daybreak Results at 10/31 : Trump 46.9% : http://cesrusc.org/election/

 

Daybreak

===========

10/31 : T 46.9 - C 43.3 = T 3.6 (u: 09.8) 36.7% Advantage in Undecided needed to Bridge the Gap - Impossible?
10/30 : T 46.6 - C 43.2 = T 3.4 (u: 10.2) 33.3%
10/29 : T 46.0 - C 44.1 = T 1.9 (u: 09.1) 20.9%
10/28 : T 46.2 - C 43.8 = T 2.4 (u: 10.0) 24.0%
10/27 : T 45.8 - C 44.1 = T 1.7 (u: 10.1) 16.8%
10/26 : T 45.2 - C 44.5 = T 0.7 (u: 10.3) 06.8%
10/25 : T 45.3 - C 44.2 = T 1.1 (u: 10.5) 10.5%
10/24 : T 44.1 - C 45.0 = C 0.9 (u: 10.9) ++++
10/23 : T 43.8 - C 45.1 = C 1.3 (u: 11.1) ++++
10/22 : T 44.4 - C 44.1 = T 0.3 (u: 11.5) 02.6%

08/13 : T 41.6 - C 46.3 = C 4.7 (u: 12.1)-38.8%
8/13 = "Peak Bitch", the only day that HRC had a winning margin !

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Even the Washington Post is admitting that Clinton is behind

 

Washington Post - ‎1 hour ago‎
Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are all but tied in the latest Washington Post-ABC News Tracking Poll, which finds Clinton backers slipping behind in enthusiasm even as the Democrat has an edge in early voting.
I think the WP is lying (and knows it!) when they say that "the Democrat has an edge in early voting"
I call BULLSHIT on that !

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Even the Washington Post is admitting that Clinton is behind

 

Washington Post - ‎1 hour ago‎
Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are all but tied in the latest Washington Post-ABC News Tracking Poll, which finds Clinton backers slipping behind in enthusiasm even as the Democrat has an edge in early voting.
I think the WP is lying (and knows it!) when they say that "the Democrat has an edge in early voting"

I call BULLSHIT on that !

 

They may be telling the truth as far as the national vote goes so Clinton California voters oput her ahead.I suspect in swing states,she's struggling.The NYT had a good piece I linkd to yesterday pointing out drops in blacks and young people early voting in North Carolina.Not good for Hilary.

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/11/01/america-divided--part-2-how-pennsylvanias-deprived-former-indust/

'

Nestled beneath verdant hills in a bend along the Monongahela River the small city of Monessen looks idyllic from a distance.

But driving into town it soon becomes clear that, like much of the rest of western Pennsylvania, Monessen is dying.

Along the potholed roads, abandoned clapboard houses are barely visible through the weeds. A large former sewing factory stands empty, all its 20 windows smashed. Half the shops in the high street are derelict.

At an abandoned, rotting bar called Billy T's a faded "Obama '08" poster hangs limply on the wall. In their heyday Pennsylvanian cities like Monessen, an hour south of Pittsburgh, were industrial powerhouses. They provided steel for the Empire State Building, the Golden Gate bridge, Chrysler cars, and US wars abroad.

But the steel plants have closed and now many voters in these former Democratic bastions are intending to do the unthinkable – vote for Donald Trump.

In order to win the White House he needs to flip at least one reliably Democrat state, and he believes it could be here.

Pennsylvania has gone Democrat in every election since 1988 and Hillary Clinton has already spent $14 million (£11.5m) on television advertisements trying to defend it.

With a week to go an average of polls showed Mrs Clinton leading by five percentage points, mainly due to her advantage in the city of Philadelphia.

But in blue collar Monessen many Democrats said they are switching sides.

In a nutshell they are angry about the North American Free Trade Agreement (Nafta).

Signed by President Bill Clinton in 1993 Nafta established an open trade zone between the US, Mexico, and Canada.

Mr Trump repeats endlessly at rallies that it was the "worst trade deal ever" and a "disaster for Pennsylvania" that led to a massive loss of jobs.

Whether or not Mr Trump overstates the case, that is how they feel in Monessen.The city's population, once 20,000, has fallen to 7,500 since the closure of its main employer, the Wheeling-Pittsburgh Steel Corp plant.

The life story of Blake Simon, 62, is typical of a Monessen Democrat who has travelled the long road to voting for Mr Trump.

For 20 years he worked at the steel plant. When it closed he tried to retrain as an X-ray technician but the college closed down before he could finish.

He worked in the local museum but it lost funding. "Nickle and dime" jobs followed, but he couldn't pay the mortgage and lost his home. His wife left him.

"Now I don't really do much of anything," said Mr Simon, speaking near a Dollar store. "I want to work. There are a lot of people in the same boat. This used to be a jumping town but there's nothing here for people. It's dead.

"Everybody here wants Trump. Obama was a mistake and people are angry. Running the country is like a business in a way and to me Trump's tough, he'll bring the jobs back."

Along Monessen's sorry high street many businesses have tried and failed. Three months ago a pawn shop opened but quickly shut down. People had little left to pawn. The average annual income is down to $16,000.

The ceiling of the former chemist's shop has collapsed. Nearby, an abandoned business equipment shop is frozen in time, with old fax machines and electronic typewriters from the 1990s overturned on the floor.

Looming over everything is an empty 200-yard section of the former steel plant that was never knocked down, a reminder of what used to be.

On his porch bedecked with a US flag resident Robert Trilli, 37, said: "I've had enough and I'm moving out. There's heroin everywhere now. You see people walking down the street like zombies." In reality people in Monessen, and across western Pennsylvania, are aware that Mr Trump cannot magically bring the steel plants back, or the coal mining industry for that matter.

But his attacks on Nafta have clearly resonated, and they believe he at least cares about their declining industry

In his modest office the Democratic mayor Lou Mavrakis was, to put it mildly, disillusioned with President Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton.

He was in the process of trying to sell the concrete bunker that is City Hall to help plug Monessen's $13.5 million debt.

The city's streets have not been repaved for 60 years and the sewerage system is dilapidated. Mr Mavrakis, 79, a former steel union official, liked Mr Trump's policy of "America First" a lot better than Nafta and what Mrs Clinton was offering.

He said: "If it wasn't for communities like Monessen we would all be speaking Japanese or German today. The very communities that built this country are the ones suffering the most."

Having previously worked for Mr Obama's campaign Mr Mavrakis recently wrote three desperate letters for help to the White House. He never even got an acknowledgment.

His last missive to Mr Obama ended: "It is quite obvious that the Democratic Party, including you and Hillary Clinton, do not care about us."

In exasperation he contacted the Trump campaign. Mr Trump duly swung by Monessen and gave a speech in June.

"He was extraordinary," said the mayor. "He gave people a shred of hope. It used to be if you saw a Republican sign around here people would throw tomatoes at it. Now, you see Trump signs. "Will he win Pennsylvania? I don't know, but it's going to be very close."

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SHIFT Came when the Dollar dropped

 

I like to capture this data at the beginning of the London trading day.

IF I do it now, the odds look different;

------- : Hillary-PP---- : Flip-- : Edge- : Trump-------- : Ratio-- / Hillary-BF--- : Flip-- : Edge- : Trump------- : Ratio - : Ave-R. :
10/29 : 02/07 : 0.285 : 3.509 : 21.6% : 11/04 : 2.750 : 9.65- H / 1.335 : 0.335 : 2.985 :-11.7% : 4.35 : 3.335 : 10.0- H : 9.83- H
10/31 : 01/03 : 0.333 : 3.003 : 16.7% : 05/02 : 2.500 : 7.51- H / 1.345 : 0.345 : 2.899 :-8.66% : 4.15 : 3.150 : 9.13- H : 8.32- H
11/01 : 01/03 : 0.333 : 3.003 : 16.7% : 05/02 : 2.500 : 7.51- H / 1.325 : 0.325 : 3.077 :-4.00% : 4.20 : 3.200 : 9.61- H : 8.56- H
P.M. - : 04/11 : 0.364 : 2.747 : 18.1% : 09/04 : 2.250 : 6.18- H / 1.395 : 0.395 : 2.532 :-7.42% : 3.72 : 2.720 :

 

That's a big shift in just a few hours. Let's talk about Why?

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http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-elections/inside-the-west-virginia-steel-town-destroyed-by-nafta-where-94-of-jobs-have-disappeared-and-donald-a7389846.html

 

'There was a time, not so long ago, when this city on the Ohio River employed up to 15,000 people in the steel mills whose rusting warehouses still line the streets. Now the figure is closer to 800.

First, it was costs associated with the repeated regulations imposed by the Environmental Protection Agency. Then, after 1994 and the passing of the North American Free Trade Agreement (Nafta) it was cheaper competition from places such as Mexico. In the end, there was no way Weirton could compete, and an industry that has fed and clothed the city for generations essentially died.

“Her husband introduced Nafta,” said a former steel worker, sitting at the the bar of the Columbia Club, located at one was once Gate No 1 of the Weirton Steel Corporation’s main factory. He had worked at the plant for 34 years. “If anyone in this in this state votes for her, they’re crazy.”

It is communities such as this that Donald Trump has been targeting hard with his pitch about the evils of Nafta and the need to bring jobs – well-paid manufacturing jobs in particular – back to America. Polls collected by RealClearPolitics suggest he leads Hillary Clinton in West Virginia by between 18 to 27 points.

While his policy is not hard on detail, Mr Trump has vowed repeatedly to bring jobs back from places such as Mexico and China.

When campaigning in Indiana he highlighted the Carrier air conditioner company, which had recently announced plans to relocate jobs south of the border, saying he would imposed a 30 per cent tariff on such products produced in Mexico.

He called Nafta “the single greatest jobs theft in the history of the world”.

Economists are divided about the actual impact of the deal, which was first negotiated by George H W Bush and signed by his successor, Bill Clinton.

America has lost 5 million manufacturing jobs since 2000, but not all were lost because of Nafta.

Mr Trump also ignored other economic gains from Nafta. Exports to Mexico have risen tremendously, in part from Mexicans’ higher standard of living (because of Nafta). Today, exports to Mexico support six million US jobs.

But in places such as Weirton, down to fewer than 20,000 people from a peak of 33,000 it is hard not to feel that while some parts of the country may have seen the benefits of global trade, this hardscrabble community, with its fast-food joints and strip bars, has been passed by.

Ed Sutton, a city government worker who said he would be voting for Mr Trump, said that “nothing had replaced the steel jobs”. “They talk about creating all these jobs. But they’re just retail jobs that pay minimum wage, or just above,” he said.

Ms Clinton, meanwhile, said this spring, in a comment she came to quickly regret, she was going to “put a lot of coal miners and coal companies out of business”.

The death of the steel industry had devastated not just the economy of the city, but had destroyed a sense of security and torn at the fabric that had maintained blue-collar communities for decades.

Jim Carey, who was also drinking the Columbia Club, grew up in the city but left to go to law school. Jobs at the mill had allowed a man to buy a house, build a small pool and send his children to college. Now, that had all gone.

“Nowadays, the best thing going for Weirton is that it is just 35 minutes from Pittsburgh airport,” said Mr Carey, who was planning to vote for Ms Clinton.

The steel industry once utterly dominated Weirton, to the extent that it was known as one of the steel capitals of America. Weirton Steel was one of the biggest single private employer, and the largest tax payer in West Virginia.

When Michael Cimino was looking for locations for his 1978 film The Deer Hunter, staring Robert De Niro, Christopher Walken and Meryl Streep and set in a fictional Pennsylvania steel town, Weirton was one of the places selected to film a number of scenes.

Harold “Bubba” Miller was elected mayor of Weirton last year. When he retired in 2000 he had been the mill’s sales manager. He said the mill was like a world within a world.

It employed doctors and lawyers, it plugged the streets when it snowed and it put up the lights for Christmas. Now, he is trying to create new jobs in the city, force the mill’s current owner, ArcelorMittal, to clean up and make safe the remaining factory sites.

Mr Miller said he also planned to vote for Mr Trump, and said many in Weirton found his message struck home.

“I would rather go for someone with an ego than someone who is a criminal,” he said. “I think he will win in West Virginia because of the attacks on mining and the steel industry. I think people are fed up with the rhetoric of Washington.”

Not everyone is planning to vote for Mr Trump. Jodi Jo, who is studying to work as a beauty therapist, said she thought the New York tycoon was a bigot. “I’ll vote for for Hillary Clinton because I’m against Trump. He’s a racist,” she said.

Gus Monezis’ bakery has occupied a prime spot in Weirton for 81 years. He said the closure of the mills had ripped at the city, but that some of other businesses, such as his, had managed to survive. “The resilient ones are still here. I’m still here,” he said.

He said he had not yet made his mind up 100 per cent on who he would vote for. “I’m still watching,” he said. “But [Trump] is saying what people are thinking.”

Sean Aldstadt has owned the Columbia Club for nine years and keeps photographs on the wall of the establishment many decades ago when it was at the centre of a thriving, industrial hub. He used to open early in the morning so people coming off the night shift could get a drink. He has since pushed that back.

“There are still people who come in here,” he said. “I tell them that if you had turned around where you are now standing, you would have seen everything going on in front of you.”

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This is irritating

 

Not everyone is planning to vote for Mr Trump. Jodi Jo, who is studying to work as a beauty therapist, said she thought the New York tycoon was a bigot. “I’ll vote for for Hillary Clinton because I’m against Trump. He’s a racist,” she said.

 

Do you think she would be able to give a reasonable explanation for WHY she thinks he is a racist?

I doubt that.

She will probably also say she supports Hillary "because she's a Woman" - which is a thoroughly Sexist reason, if you think about it

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BUSTED, HERE ARE THE COMPLETE RIGGED ELECTION RESULTS. TRUMP LOSES. THIS WAS RIPPED STRAIGHT OFF THE WORLDNOW MEDIA SERVER FOX, CBS, AND OTHERS USE. THIS IS NOT A SPOOF, THEY HAVE ALREADY FINALIZED THE ELECTION AND PREPARED THE REPORT PAGES. THIS IS A BUST OF THE ENTIRE SYSTEM, WITH THREE DIFFERENT CONFIRMED NEWS STATIONS USED AS EXAMPLES.

http://82.221.129.208/basepaget1.html

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AKE A LOOK AT THIS CHART, AND NEVER FORGET: THIS IS WHERE TRUMP DID THE WORST!

This is the early voting chart for Florida. In my post yesterday titled "Do not forgive" I stated Trump had 68 percent of the popular vote in Florida, which was the worst he did anywhere. We also know that Florida is getting massively rigged for Hillary, and absent the rigging, Trump would have exceeded 82 percent. I was not blowing smoke, the chart below for early voting in Florida (with considerably more rigged Hillary votes thrown in) STILL SHOWS TRUMP AT 64.8 PERCENT OF THE POPULAR VOTE.

earlyvote.gif

They can't finish rigging this and get away with it, the sample base is simply too large. It cannot, by all statistical rules, move outside of 2 percent of this, EVER. This seals Trump's victory in Florida. If he does not take it, it will be full confirmation of massive fraud.

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http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/02/us/politics/black-turnout-falls-in-early-voting-boding-ill-for-hillary-clinton.html?_r=0

'African-Americans are failing to vote at the robust levels they did four years ago in several states that could help decide the presidential election, creating a vexing problem for Hillary Clinton as she clings to a deteriorating lead over Donald J. Trump with Election Day just a week away.

As tens of millions of Americans cast ballots in what will be the largest-ever mobilization of early voters in a presidential election, the numbers have started to point toward a slump that many Democrats feared might materialize without the nation’s first black president on the ticket.

The reasons for the decline appear to be both political and logistical, with lower voter enthusiasm and newly enacted impediments to voting at play. In North Carolina, where a federal appeals court accused Republicans of an “almost surgical” assault on black turnout and Republican-run election boards curtailed early-voting sites, black turnout is down 16 percent. White turnout, however, is up 15 percent. Democrats are planning an aggressive final push, including a visit by President Obama to the state on Wednesday.

But in Florida, which extended early voting after long lines left some voters waiting for hours in 2012, African-Americans’ share of the electorate that has gone to the polls in person so far has decreased, to 15 percent today from 25 percent four years ago.

The problems for Democrats do not end there. In Ohio, which also cut back its early voting, voter participation in the heavily Democratic areas near Cleveland, Columbus and Toledo has been down, though the Clinton campaign said it was encouraged by a busy day on Sunday when African-American churches led voter drives across the state.

The disappointing black turnout so far could foreshadow a larger and more intractable problem for Mrs. Clinton and the Democratic Party as they rethink their place in a post-Obama era. One of the biggest uncertainties Democrats have been forced to confront in this election is whether Mr. Obama’s absence from the ticket would depress black enthusiasm, which was at historic levels in 2008 and 2012 and would have been difficult to replicate under even the best of circumstances.

The Clinton campaign believes it can close the gap, especially in North Carolina and Florida, by Election Day. And Democrats are seeing substantial gains in turnout for other key constituencies like Hispanics and college-educated women, which have the potential to more than make up for any drop-off in black voting.

Working in Mrs. Clinton’s favor even if her share of the black vote declines is the fact that she has built a political coalition different from Mr. Obama’s. She is counting on an electorate that is more Hispanic and includes more white voters — especially college-educated women — who would have considered voting Republican but are repelled by Mr. Trump.

Marc Farinella, who ran Mr. Obama’s North Carolina campaign in 2008, said it was obvious the level of energy had fallen among African-Americans. But, he added, “I’m not entirely sure it’s completely necessary for her.”

“She’s got other dynamics and advantages that Obama didn’t have,” he said.

In few places are the disadvantages Democrats face more pronounced than in North Carolina. Though a federal court curtailed the Republican-backed law that reduced the number of days of early voting, localities were left to decide how many polling places they would open.

In Guilford County, about an hour’s drive west from the state capital, the population is roughly one-third black. For the first week of in-person early voting there, voters could go only one place to cast a ballot, the Guilford County Courthouse in the county seat, Greensboro. In 2012, there were 16 locations.

The black vote was also lagging, at 34 percent of the turnout this year, compared with 40 percent in 2012.

Some black voters, like Ronald Brooks, said they simply needed more time to make a decision this year. It was just easier, Mr. Brooks said, in 2008 and 2012, when he had voted for Mr. Obama.

Mr. Brooks, 31, a mental health worker, was still weighing his options on Tuesday morning. He said he was worried about Mrs. Clinton’s trustworthiness, given that she had set up a private email server as secretary of state. “What were you trying to hide?” he said.

His hesitation reflected a generational divide among African-Americans: Older voters have an affection for Mrs. Clinton and her husband, and a fear of Mr. Trump, that many younger voters do not share.

Democrats in North Carolina have been fighting other efforts they believe are intended to disenfranchise blacks. A federal district judge scheduled a hearing for Wednesday morning in a suit by the state N.A.A.C.P. charging that at least three North Carolina counties, prompted by Republican challenges, have illegally struck 4,500 residents from voter rolls.

The state N.A.A.C.P. president, the Rev. Dr. William J. Barber II, said the purges were little more than election trickery aimed at disenfranchising legally registered voters. “It’s sickening and disgusting, what is going on,” he said at a news briefing on Tuesday.

Michael Bitzer, a professor of political science at Catawba College, said the racial composition of the early-voting electorate in the state so far is off from 2012. White voters make up 72 percent of those who have cast ballots; black voters are 22 percent. In 2012, early voters were 67 percent white and 27 percent black.

Inside the Clinton campaign, crunchtime has begun. Addisu Demissie, the campaign’s national voter outreach and mobilization director, said in an interview on Tuesday that he felt good about where North Carolina stood, given how the election rules had changed. There and in other states like Florida and Ohio, he added, the campaign believes it is in a strong position to leverage its organizational advantage over Mr. Trump.

“We need to continue to work,” Mr. Demissie said. “We know that most people are driven by deadlines,” he added, “and we will see, as we have seen in this campaign at every point, a ramp-up in activity and in engagement from us as the deadline approaches.”

Florida has emerged as another potential soft spot of black support, despite efforts by the state to make it easier for more people to vote early. It added five more days of early voting, plus a sixth on the final Sunday before the election in many of the largest urban areas like Miami.

Yet African-Americans are underperforming their participation rates from 2012. Daniel A. Smith, a professor of political science at the University of Florida, compared the early voting so far in minority-heavy Miami-Dade, Palm Beach and Broward Counties with that in 2012. He found that of those who have cast ballots this year, 22 percent were black, 40 percent were white and 31 percent were Hispanic. In 2012, the breakdown was 36 percent black, 35 percent white and 23 percent Hispanic.

“If the Clinton campaign doesn’t ramp it up,” Professor Smith said, “Florida will be in doubt.”

Still, Mrs. Clinton maintains a huge organizational advantage, not to mention a likely lead among the people who are now voting in the critical Western battlegrounds of Colorado and Nevada, where Democrats have cast more ballots. And in a sign of how narrow Mr. Trump’s path is, Mrs. Clinton could lose Florida, North Carolina and Ohio and still beat him.'

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http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/11/01/florida-early-voting-good-donald-trump/

'Florida’s early voting numbers show that Donald Trump is on track to win the state if he can gather support from half of the state’s “No Party Affiliated” voters by November 8.

The calculation assumes that Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton each keep 87 percent of their partisan supporters in Florida, gain 4 percent or 5 percent from the other party, and lose 8 percent or 9 percent to third-party candidates. Those numbers match the data provided in a recent TIPP poll for Investors Business Daily.

Based on TIPP’s data, and the 4 million early votes cast by Monday, Trump will get 45.4 percent of the state’s vote — and the November win — if the NPA vote splits 48 percent for Trump, 33 percent for Hillary Clinton, and 19 percent for third parties, including Jill Stein of the Green Party. '

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http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map.html

 

Virginia moved to toss up by RCP

 

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5964.html

 

Penn is still classed as leans Clinton yet out of last three polls

Remington Research ®*

10/30 - 10/30 1249 LV 2.8 45 43 3 -- Clinton +2 Franklin & Marshall 10/26 - 10/30 652 LV 5.1 49 38 4 2 Clinton +11 Gravis 10/25 - 10/30 3217 RV 1.7 47 44 3 2 Clinton +3

 

 

 

The one poll holding it all up sampled just 652 people..............................

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BUSTED, HERE ARE THE COMPLETE RIGGED ELECTION RESULTS. TRUMP LOSES. THIS WAS RIPPED STRAIGHT OFF THE WORLDNOW MEDIA SERVER FOX, CBS, AND OTHERS USE. THIS IS NOT A SPOOF, THEY HAVE ALREADY FINALIZED THE ELECTION AND PREPARED THE REPORT PAGES. THIS IS A BUST OF THE ENTIRE SYSTEM, WITH THREE DIFFERENT CONFIRMED NEWS STATIONS USED AS EXAMPLES.

http://82.221.129.208/basepaget1.html

 

 

Any idea what Jim Stone's track record is like? I only heard of him the 1st time a few weeks ago when he was saying that Assange is almost certainly dead. This hasn't been proven or disproven up until now.

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His site was much bigger a few months ago... he, allegedly, had to slim it down a while back to keep it going. He seems legit to me, but who knows these days? There's so much sh*t flying around....

 

I sort of trust him.... his arguments hold water.

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His site was much bigger a few months ago... he, allegedly, had to slim it down a while back to keep it going. He seems legit to me, but who knows these days? There's so much sh*t flying around....

 

I sort of trust him.... his arguments hold water.

I had a look at some of his other stuff and he seems legit, but like you say it's impossible. to know. Some stuff seems far fetched though - he reckons Trump's actual support is 85% and that Clinton would destroy Iran because some of his posts on the topic were taken down. She's said publicly that she'll obliterate Iran, it's not a secret.

 

Someone tweeted it to Pax Dickinson, Mike Cernovich & Jack Prosobiec asking if it was legit. PD replied saying it looks stupid, is only test data and an election wouldn't be rigged this way.

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"...as she clings to a deteriorating lead over Donald J. Trump..."

 

What a bucket of shite is the reporting at the NY Times!

They seem to be in on an attempt to Rig the election

 

 

If Jim Stone is right that it will be announced that "Hillary has won 42% to 40%",

(Now way is Johnson getting 8%, and Stein 5% btw)

I wonder what those Counter-Coup* insiders will do ?

 

===

*see thread:

The Counter-coup against Corrupt Clintons is succeeding

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http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/11/02/early_voting_a_poor_predictor_of_final_results.html

 

'While we might be able to make some broad projections based upon early voting – maybe – we’re more likely to substitute our own judgments and arbitrary intuitions for actual results.

There are (at least) three reasons this it true. The first is theoretical. We can think of an election result as accurately represented by the following equation: The Democrats’ share of the vote is equal to the Democrats’ share of the early vote times the number of early votes, plus the Democrats’ share of the Election Day vote times the number of Election Day votes.

Even if you don’t have a math degree, you should be able to intuit the gist of the problem: We are missing two of the four variables for the equation, and guessing at a third. All we really know is the number of early votes cast.

 

The real problem with this, however – and this is true with a lot of early voting analysis – is that for any of this to work we have to assume that the early vote is somehow representative of the Election Day vote in order to fill in the second half of the equation. The problem is, it isn’t. Research suggests that the early vote tends to be comprised of more partisan, higher propensity voters. In the most recent elections, they have often skewed Democratic, most likely as a side effect of increased Democratic emphasis on early voting

 

Second, predictions from early voting have a decidedly mixed track record. As University of Denver political scientist Seth Masket has suggested, the relationship between early voting results and Election Day results is pretty weak. That isn’t to say it is non-existent, but we should probably expect some type of relationship between the partisan split of early votes and the state as a whole (that is, we’d expect more Democrats to vote early and on Election Day in Maryland than, say, Utah.)

 

Third, given the lack of scientific rigor in a lot of these projections, analysts can easily fall into the trap of filling that gap with their own assumptions.'

 

 

 

All good points

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"The real problem with this, however – and this is true with a lot of early voting analysis – is that for any of this to work we have to assume that the early vote is somehow representative of the Election Day vote in order to fill in the second half of the equation. The problem is, it isn’t. Research suggests that the early vote tends to be comprised of more partisan, higher propensity voters..."

 

Except that...

The Real News just keeps getting more negative -- though the Spin Machines are not reporting it properly

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