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US Presidential Polls 2016-the run in.

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"I put the Odds of a Trump victory back over 90%"

 

"She's being crucified by the legacy media now too": http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/30/us/...

 

Clinton Is Probably Doomed Because of the FBI Probe

Published on Oct 29, 2016

 

BETS

====

> Paddy Power: GBP1000 on each : http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/us-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=791149

Clinton : 2 / 7 (x 0.285: GBP285) == Trump : 11/4 ( 2.75: GBP2,750) = + HRC: 9.65

> Betfair : GBP1000 on each : https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?id=924.8325569&exp=e

Clinton : 1.33-1.34 (x 0.335: GBP335) == Trump ; 4.3-4.4 ( 3.35: GBP3,350) = + HRC: 10.00

 

Just bumping this post so I remember to watch later.

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20161029_inauguration_0.jpg

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"I put the Odds of a Trump victory back over 90%"

 

"She's being crucified by the legacy media now too": http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/30/us/...

 

Clinton Is Probably Doomed Because of the FBI Probe

Published on Oct 29, 2016

 

BETS

====

> Paddy Power: GBP1000 on each : http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/us-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=791149

Clinton : 2 / 7 (x 0.285: GBP285) == Trump : 11/4 ( 2.75: GBP2,750) = + HRC: 9.65

> Betfair : GBP1000 on each : https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?id=924.8325569&exp=e

Clinton : 1.33-1.34 (x 0.335: GBP335) == Trump ; 4.3-4.4 ( 3.35: GBP3,350) = + HRC: 10.00

 

That really is a superb analysis.Love it how he talks about the 'Legacy media'.He also explains how it's possibly in the Democrats interests to get rid of Hilary,that Comey is likely sat on some toxic evidence to have gone firm at this point,that Comey likely had no choice in the matter given the gravity of the evidence,that Clinton's campaign cannot recover,etcetc.

 

I'll watch a second time,anyone know who the guy is.

 

He appears to talk without notes as well.

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"I'll watch a second time,anyone know who the guy is."

 

He's good.

I started watching his videos about two weeks ago

 

Fours Hours ago:

(another biggie coming?... but may not directly implicate Hillary)

 

At Long Last: O'Keefe Promises Clinton Racist Tape "Early Next Week"

 

"She admonishes her supporters to vote early... I think that's telling"

"She may be pulling her troops out of Florida and Ohio"

 

His listeners seem to be switched on to taboo issues

Take note that Soros, Gruber, Weiner, Feinstein and many more, are Jews.
Note that 96% of the US media is owned by just 6 corporations, all of them owned by Jews. The head of CNN is a Jew. The head of Viacom (MTV, CBS) is a Jew ("Sumner Redstone). Political Correctness is dying. It's time to start noticing these things.

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"MSM was gaslighting with fake Polls"

 

Donald Trump UP Massively In New Polls!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xRS4YeBaY9E

2016年10月30日

Donald Trump is up massively in some new key state polls.

 

In final sprint, Donald targets Dem states...
Thousands Rally in New Mexico...

=== ===

 

x

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BREAKING: WORLD’S SMARTEST COMPUTER JUST PREDICTED THE ELECTION! AND THE WINNER IS…

 

Published on Oct 30, 2016

 

"A Super computer in India... uses 20 million datapoints, like interactions on Facebook."

 

I wonder what's its actual INPUTS are?

A computer program is no better than its inputs.

If they are using the Raw data from Polls, how does it see through the Noise and Data manipulation?

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BREAKING: WORLD’S SMARTEST COMPUTER JUST PREDICTED THE ELECTION! AND THE WINNER IS…

 

Published on Oct 30, 2016

 

"A Super computer in India... uses 20 million datapoints, like interactions on Facebook."

 

I wonder what's its actual INPUTS are?

A computer program is no better than its inputs.

If they are using the Raw data from Polls, how does it see through the Noise and Data manipulation?

 

Martin Armstrong's computer system has the Republicans winning in 3 out of 4 of it's projections, 1 of them in a landslide. I don't know how it comes to these conclusions but it got Brexit right, even though he didn't think it would be allowed to happen.

 

He has also changed his tone since the reopening of the investigation as he was saying there was no way Trump would be allowed to be President if he won, but now seems to be saying it can happen. Not saying he was right but interesting that somebody who was saying there was 'no chance' has now changed his mind post Huma-gate.

 

His computer model also shows Clinton being indicted next year, whether she wins or not!

 

 

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/north_america/2016-u-s-presidential-election/will-hillary-be-indicted-in-2017-cycle-look-like-that-is-the-outcome/

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http://www.denverpost.com/2016/10/30/greeley-donald-trump-re-emphasizes-skepticism-over-colorados-mail-ballots/

 

'

Clinton received 42 percent and Trump registered 39 percent in the head-to-head poll of likely Colorado voters conducted last week. The close nature of the race is not unexpected, as President Barack Obama won Colorado by roughly 5 percentage points in 2012.

At numerous points in his 45-minute speech, Trump urged his supporters in the campus arena — numbering at more than 3,000, according to local officials — to “get those ballots in.”

The early numbers showing Democrats with the advantage may not foretell the final result Nov. 8, as evidenced by Trump fans at the event.

Thomas Crawford, a registered Democrat from Denver, traveled to Greeley for the rally. He and wife Martha, a lifelong Democratic voter, cast ballots for Trump.

“I think the Clintons have sold this country down the river,” said Crawford, a 49-year-old salesman.

“Trump’s not a politician,” added Martha Crawford, 63. “He’s going to drain the swamp.”'

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BETS : Original, and updated

======
> Paddy Power: GBP1000 on each : http://www.paddypowe..._grp_ids=791149
Clinton : 2 / 7 (x 0.285: GBP285) == Trump : 11/4 ( 2.75: GBP2,750) = + HRC: 9.65

> Betfair : GBP1000 on each : https://www.betfair....4.8325569&exp=e
Clinton : 1.33-1.34 (x 0.335: GBP335) == Trump ; 4.3-4.4 ( 3.35: GBP3,350) = + HRC: 10.00

===============

 

------- : Hillary-PP---- : Trump-------- : Ratio-- / Hillary-BF--- : Trump------- : Ratio-- :
10/29 : 02/07 : 0.285 : 11/04 : 2.750 : 9.65- H / 1.335 : 0.335 : 4.35 : 3.335 : 10.0- H :
10/31 : 01/03 : 0.333 : 05/02 : 2.500 : 7.51- H / 1.345 : 0.345 : 4.15 : 3.150 : 9.13- H :

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Recognizing Reality ?.

 

 

1/3 of "Her" Voters are supporting Him:

 

Overall the poll presentation shows Donald Trump with a 4 point advantage. However, the real story, reflecting the full scope of what’s happening, is marginally buried in the poll internals:

… [
Trump’s
] so strong that Mrs. Clinton has just 55 percent of the vote among white registered Democrats without a degree,
compared with Mr. Trump’s 32 percent
.

Yes, that is correct. Donald Trump is winning 32% of the largest Florida Democrat constituency, registered white Democrats without a college degree.

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http://www.denverpost.com/2016/10/30/greeley-donald-trump-re-emphasizes-skepticism-over-colorados-mail-ballots/

 

'

Clinton received 42 percent and Trump registered 39 percent in the head-to-head poll of likely Colorado voters conducted last week. The close nature of the race is not unexpected, as President Barack Obama won Colorado by roughly 5 percentage points in 2012.

At numerous points in his 45-minute speech, Trump urged his supporters in the campus arena — numbering at more than 3,000, according to local officials — to “get those ballots in.”

The early numbers showing Democrats with the advantage may not foretell the final result Nov. 8, as evidenced by Trump fans at the event.

Thomas Crawford, a registered Democrat from Denver, traveled to Greeley for the rally. He and wife Martha, a lifelong Democratic voter, cast ballots for Trump.

“I think the Clintons have sold this country down the river,” said Crawford, a 49-year-old salesman.

“Trump’s not a politician,” added Martha Crawford, 63. “He’s going to drain the swamp.”'

Just watching the first two minutes on the video and the reporter points out that Trump pulled in 1000's at 24 hrs notice and while a Denver Bronco's game was on....................................and you've got Kaine cancelling in Ohio and Florida.

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Just watching the first two minutes on the video and the reporter points out that Trump pulled in 1000's at 24 hrs notice and while a Denver Bronco's game was on....................................and you've got Kaine cancelling in Ohio and Florida.

Winning Colorado would open up a lot of new options for the Don

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Recognizing Reality ?.

 

 

1/3 of "Her" Voters are supporting Him:

 

Overall the poll presentation shows Donald Trump with a 4 point advantage. However, the real story, reflecting the full scope of what’s happening, is marginally buried in the poll internals:

… [
] so strong that Mrs. Clinton has just 55 percent of the vote among white registered Democrats without a degree,
compared with Mr. Trump’s 32 percent
.

Yes, that is correct. Donald Trump is winning 32% of the largest Florida Democrat constituency, registered white Democrats without a college degree.

Wow....................correlates with a few of the Denver democrats..

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http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/10/31/us/elections/earlyvoters.html?_r=0



'Professor McDonald, whose research focuses on early voting, said that in states with early voting both by mail and in person, “the mail ballots tend to break towards Republicans and in-person early breaks between Democrats.”




People who vote the earliest are typically older, have a long record of voting and are highly involved in the political process. As Election Day nears, Professor McDonald said, more younger people and those who had been undecided begin to vote.'




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Sorry got these in wrong thread

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/10/31/us/elections/earlyvoters.html?_r=0

 

Reuters/Ipsos widely quoted as giving Hilary a 15% lead in early voting.

 

Looking at this data from the NYT,

Texas,Georgia,Arizona,Virginia,Wisconsin,Maine have seen increased early voting

California,North Carolina,Ohio,Colorado,Michigan,Iowa,Nevada,Utah,Alaska are down.

 

Quite how to interpret this I don't know.As an incumbent I think I'd like to see increased early voting ie people not waiting for later stages of campaign and voting for alternative.

 

Would that be right?

 

Hispanic early voting is up but young people up to 29 is down

 

 

Black voters voting early is down led by Georgia,North Carolina,Ohio,Michigan,Colorado,Nevada,Iowa.

 

I'd say this is bad for Hilary.

 

 

White early voting up heavily in Ohio and North Carolina................................

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Rasmussen Clinton +3

 

Intersting that as he closes the polls in swing states,he's moving out nationally.

 

The Fix seems to be in for Razzy

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2 recent tweets from Hillary Shill Nate Silver:

 

'Esoteric hot take: If polling swings are exaggerated by non-response bias, that suggests a significant risk of systemic polling error'

 

'Either polls are having trouble capturing a random sample, or voter preferences are quite volatile. Either way, lots of uncertainty'.

 

 

He's suddenly not too keen on the polls, I wonder why :).

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2 recent tweets from Hillary Shill Nate Silver:

 

'Esoteric hot take: If polling swings are exaggerated by non-response bias, that suggests a significant risk of systemic polling error'

 

'Either polls are having trouble capturing a random sample, or voter preferences are quite volatile. Either way, lots of uncertainty'.

 

 

He's suddenly not too keen on the polls, I wonder why :).

Nate gets it wrong that often that he learned to get his excuse in early.

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