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US Presidential Polls 2016-the run in.

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That's the big five.Intersting to see these state polls develop.Kilary losing Penn would be sublime.

 

Seems like it might come down to a few tens of thousands of black folks in Philly.

I hope Mr Trump gets back there soon

 

It will be a challenge to "turn" some of these guys away from the Satanic One

 

Will Smith slams Trump

Published on Aug 8, 2016

At a Dubai press conference for his latest film, "Suicide Squad," Will Smith discusses Donald Trump, Islamophobia and negative reviews. (Aug. 8)

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Seems like it might come down to a few tens of thousands of black folks in Philly.

I hope Mr Trump gets back there soon

 

It will be a challenge to "turn" some of these guys away from the Satanic One

 

Will Smith slams Trump

Published on Aug 8, 2016

At a Dubai press conference for his latest film, "Suicide Squad," Will Smith discusses Donald Trump, Islamophobia and negative reviews. (Aug. 8)

Will Smith has one vote in Cali.

 

The guy who's lost his job because of Obamacare in Pennsylvania has one vote.The guy in Ohio who's lost his job due to NAFTA has one vote.

 

There's a lot more of the last two than Hollywood movie stars.

 

http://video.foxnews.com/v/5186703237001/gingrich-obamacare-news-to-have-major-impact-on-election/?#sp=show-clips

 

Great video from Hannity on the race pretty much discussing the big five route to the White House and featuring Gingrich talking Obamacare

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http://video.foxnews.com/v/5186632204001/is-election-2016-getting-tighter-or-is-it-already-over/

Funny watching these talking heads.The presenter does a decent job of trying tog et the talking heads to accept that talking about the RCP average Clinton lead is 5.5% whilst including outlying polls giving Hilary 12% and 14%.Exclude those polls and it's 3%.

 

Have to say the RCP lady does come across as very defensive of Hilary's lead.

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FOX Poll shows the lead down to 5%*

 

The O'Reilly Factor 10/26/16 | Bill O' Reilly on Latest Fox News Poll, Best Donald Trump interview

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xOdp6LGZbyY

 

Actually only 3 points, in a 4-person race

 

Hannity does the State count, and can find a pathway without Pennsylvania or Michigan,

and I think he can surprise the pollsters in both states.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_PYFOOjcngw

 

I think some Black folks in Philly are going to surprise people. Maybe Michigan too

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TRUMP Might be AHEAD in Michigan !

 

Mich. voters request more absentee ballots than in 2012

635652989892645519-Livengood-Chad.png Chad Livengood, Detroit News Lansing Bureau 11:35 p.m. EDT October 26, 2016

 

B99456434Z.1_20161026225304_000_GFH16SL2

(Photo: Carrie Antlfinger / AP)

Lansing — Michigan Republicans and Democrats are both optimistic about their chances to win large numbers of absentee voters, finding positive trends about their parties in initial returns of absentee ballots less than two weeks before Election Day.

Republicans have a slight lead in the amount of absentee ballots returned by likely voters, but a larger percentage of voters identified as Democrats have returned their ballots, according to a new data analysis.

As of Wednesday, voters identified as Republican had returned 20,624 more ballots than those believed to be Democrats, 190,734 to 170,110, according to an analysis by Practical Political Consulting in East Lansing.

==

> http://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2016/10/26/mich-voters-request-absentee-ballots/92808966/

 

In 2012, Michigan was won by Democratic incumbent Barack Obama by a 9.5% margin of victory.[1] Obama received 54.21% of the vote to Romney's 44.71%. Republicans last carried the state in 1988, when George H.W. Bush won in Michigan.

==

> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_Michigan,_2012

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STUFFING THE BOXES for the satanic one !!

 

Democrats Busted On Camera Stuffing Ballot Boxes - assuming this is what it says it is

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8YsRU0TFQTY

 

/ 2 / corroboration

 

American women, especially fat ugly ones are incredibly privileged -

They think they have the RIGHT to break any law to support their candidate of choice.

 

For the law-breaking here, I think a 5-10 year prison sentence, and stripping of their rights to vote

Plus an invalidation of most of the Democratic ballots would be justifiied

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/ 2 / corroboration

 

American women, especially fat ugly ones are incredibly privileged -

They think they have the RIGHT to break any law to support their candidate of choice.

 

For the law-breaking here, I think a 5-10 year prison sentence, and stripping of their rights to vote

Plus an invalidation of most of the Democratic ballots would be justifiied

Whatever was in video one is totally overshadowed by video 2..........................................weird....................

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SR 1298 – Electoral College Map Is Changing Fast – Trump Can Win!

 

Published on Oct 27, 2016

Visit our website now: http://www.billstill.com - considered by informed insiders’ as THE ultimate resource for fixing the National Debt problem and surviving Economic or Financial Collapse/Crash and attaining the unvarnished truth about Washington and today’s United States Political Climate.

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Doing the electoral college math alongside Election Projection

http://www.electionprojection.com/presidential-elections.php

 

EP currently have Kilary on 351-187

However,taking North Carolina 15 + Ohio 18 + Florida 29 + Arizona 11 + Nevada 6=79 going off todays polls a reasonable possibility if not an actual toss up.

 

Putting the race at 266 Trump 272 Kilary.

 

Then all it needs is either Pennsylvania 20/Virginia 13/Colorado 9/Minnesota 10/Wisconsin 10

 

Also in play from last time are New Hampshire 4 and Maine 2+2

 

 

 

SR 1298 – Electoral College Map Is Changing Fast – Trump Can Win!

 

Published on Oct 27, 2016

Visit our website now: http://www.billstill.com - considered by informed insiders’ as THE ultimate resource for fixing the National Debt problem and surviving Economic or Financial Collapse/Crash and attaining the unvarnished truth about Washington and today’s United States Political Climate.

 

That's a great clip.Hannity's analysis is spot on.

 

It's been a reall boone for the Trumop campaign for Obamacare premium rises to be announced before Nov 8th

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'The number of ballots cast in Cuyahoga and other key Democratic counties is lagging behind early voting totals from 2012, when President Barack Obama was victorious, according to a cleveland.com analysis of state election data.

As of last Friday, voters in Ohio counties most recently carried by Obama had requested 39,600 fewer absentee ballots than they did in 2012, good for a drop of 4 percent. The largest drop-off is in deep-blue Cuyahoga County, where voters have requested about 42,700 fewer absentee ballots, or 17 percent less, than they did in 2012.

Other counties where voters have requested fewer ballots in 2016 than they did four years ago include Summit (-6 percent), Franklin (-7 percent), and Lucas (-17 percent), three of Obama's best counties.

Voters in Hamilton (+3 percent) and Montgomery (+19 percent) counties have requested more ballots this year. However, while Obama won these counties in 2012, he won them by narrower margins than other large urban counties.

Meanwhile, voters in counties won by Republican Mitt Romney have requested about 52,000 more ballots, or 11 percent more, this year than they did in 2012. Compared to Democratic counties, the voters in Republican counties also have returned them at a higher rate, particularly as time has gone on. Some of the greatest numerical gains took place in Southwestern Ohio counties — Butler, Clermont, Greene, Miami and Warren — where Romney won by 60 percent or more.

It's unclear to what extent this might simply show a larger portion of Republican voters are shifting toward early voting, rather than just waiting until Election Day to vote for Trump. Political scientists say early voting can indicate increased voter enthusiasm, but doesn't necessarily correlate with Election Day results. It's also not a given that voters in Republican counties are casting votes for Trump — this year's unusual and divisive election could see both Clinton and Trump's support eroding in traditional areas of strength.'

 

 

These figures are a massive positive for Trump.Although as I've said in an earlier,my experience in the UK tells me that certain demographics are more likely to postal vote than others.

 

On the face of it though,some of these drops are ,ahem............large to say the least in what was and is a tight race

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OHIO:

As of last Friday, voters in Ohio counties most recently carried by Obama had requested 39,600 fewer absentee ballots than they did in 2012, good for a drop of 4 percent...

Meanwhile, voters in counties won by Republican Mitt Romney have requested about 52,000 more ballots, or 11 percent more, this year than they did in 2012

 

Not only that - quite a number of Democrats may vote for Trump

 

If you get a swing of 4% on both sides, that's 8% more for Trump, than for Romney

 

Top States : and Results in 2012

18 × 1 = 18 : Ohio------- (Obama 50.67% / Romney 47.69% : - 0.4% below ave.)

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My old forecast may prove accurate (if the media really HAS turned)

 

Hillary gets 23% of the Vote

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http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-28/rigged-abc-poll-shows-hillary-lead-collapse-12-points-6-points-two-days

'

Over the weekend we wrote about the latest ABC / Washington Post "goal seeking" report that showed a 12-point lead for Hillary. The "poll" took advantage of all the usual gimmicks to engineer the blowout Hillary lead including a 9% "oversample" of democrats versus republicans (which, as we've pointed out numerous times, does not reflect the reality of the true voter registration gap). Conveniently, the 12-point lead was released just in time for the Sunday political talk shows which all had a field day boasting about the results.

Ironically, just two days after showing a landslide victory for Hillary, ABC and Wapo now see a much tighter race with her 12-point lead being cut in half to just 6 points. So, you tell us...did voters suddenly have a massive change of heart, in just two days, on no incremental news? Or, did ABC / Wapo have other reasons to "goal seeking" a 12-point lead over the weekend? Certainly, it seems convenient that a controversial poll reflecting a massive lead for Hillary would be "embargoed" for release to just prior to the start of the busy Sunday political talk shows while more "realistic" polls would be released just days later, in the middle of the week, without the same mainstream media fanfare.

Another interesting takeaway is how ABC/Wapo voters don't seem to react to news flow. For example, their polling data showed no change in support for Hillary after her 9/11 "medical episode" (in contrast to almost every other poll that reflected a massive decline in support) while Trump seemingly lost multiple points and then mysteriously regained them in recent days on minimal incremental news.'

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IBD/TIPP Clinton+4

IBD has gone from Trump +2 to Clinton +4 in four days

 

That's an Odd move.

But i dont think it is up-to-date

 

The real turn is when the Scum Media starts giving Longer reports on Clinton Crimes

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That's an Odd move.

But i dont think it is up-to-date

 

The real turn is when the Scum Media starts giving Longer reports on Clinton Crimes

I was surprised because the move went counter to(admittedly the most fudged poll of all-ABC/Wapo Tracker)- going from Clinton +12 to Clinton +2

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Worth noting the Penn poll only telephoned 420 people and for this election,I'd prefer online polls as worked better for Brexit.

 

However,it keeps the odds out.

 

The Penn poll the other day sampled nearly 2000 people and had Trump down 3%.

 

My personal view has always been,a decent poll sample,with Trumpo within the margin of error and Hilary is in big trouble.

 

Obviously,DYOR.

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.

Seizing on the news of the reopened FBI inquiry, Trump leveled attacks on Clinton, accusing her of “criminal action.”

Democrats, meanwhile, angrily suggested that the announcement was politically motivated.

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"I put the Odds of a Trump victory back over 90%"

 

"She's being crucified by the legacy media now too": http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/30/us/...

 

Clinton Is Probably Doomed Because of the FBI Probe

Published on Oct 29, 2016

 

BETS

====
> Paddy Power: GBP1000 on each : http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/us-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=791149
Clinton : 2 / 7 (x 0.285: GBP285) == Trump : 11/4 ( 2.75: GBP2,750) = + HRC: 9.65

> Betfair : GBP1000 on each : https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?id=924.8325569&exp=e
Clinton : 1.33-1.34 (x 0.335: GBP335) == Trump ; 4.3-4.4 ( 3.35: GBP3,350) = + HRC: 10.00

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.
Seizing on the news of the reopened FBI inquiry, Trump leveled attacks on Clinton, accusing her of “criminal action.”
Democrats, meanwhile, angrily suggested that the announcement was politically motivated.

 

If it was politically motivated they'd have prosecuted back in June.

 

There are a few things here.

1) Abedin didn't surrender Weiner's computer when she asked to hand over the computers she'd been using for work.

2) Weiner may potentially have some State Dept/Classified material on his laptop.

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SR 1303 – Crooked Clinton CRASHES in USC Daybreak Poll.

Trump SURGING Despite Skewing

Published on Oct 29, 2016

Daybreak Results at 10/28 : Trump 46.2%

 

Daybreak

===========
10/29 : T 46.0 - C 44.1 = T 1.9 (u: 09.1) 20.9% of undecided needed to Bridge the Gap
10/28 : T 46.2 - C 43.8 = T 2.4 (u: 10.0) 24.0%
10/27 : T 45.8 - C 44.1 = T 1.7 (u: 10.1) 16.8%
10/26 : T 45.2 - C 44.5 = T 0.7 (u: 10.3) 06.8%
10/25 : T 45.3 - C 44.2 = T 1.1 (u: 10.5) 10.5%
10/24 : T 44.1 - C 45.0 = C 0.9 (u: 10.9) ++++
10/23 : T 43.8 - C 45.1 = C 1.3 (u: 11.1) ++++
10/22 : T 44.4 - C 44.1 = T 0.3 (u: 11.5) 02.6%

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