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US Presidential Polls 2016-the run in.

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Rasmussen Trump +2 poll from earlier

'Eighty percent (80%) of voters believe this year’s presidential campaign is more negative than past campaigns.

Trump has the support of 78% of Republicans and 15% of Democrats and continues to hold a small lead among voters not affiliated with either major political party. Clinton has the backing of 77% of Democrats and 11% of GOP voters. Johnson has 10% of the unaffiliated vote, but both he and Stein now earn just low single-digit support among voters in both major parties.

Just over 90% of both Republicans and Democrats are certain of their vote, compared to 77% of unaffiliateds.

Twelve percent (12%) of men and 10% of women say they still could change their minds. Trump has a double-digit lead among men; Clinton has a slightly smaller lead among women.

The older the voter, the more certain they are of how they will vote. Trump continues to lead among those 40 and over, while Clinton remains ahead among younger voters. Johnson and Stein run strongest among voters under 40 who are also the likeliest age group to still be undecided.

Mitt Romney earned 17% of the black vote in 2012, and Trump appears to be running near that level. Seventy-three percent (73%) of black voters favor Clinton. Ninety-one percent (91%) of blacks say they’ve made up their minds, making them slightly more certain than whites and other minority voters.

Whites prefer Trump; other minorities like Clinton by a 20-point margin.'

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I also believe that the figure for Republicans backing Trump will be higher.A lot may be 'shy 'Trump voters.Hilary,I'm not so sure she's in a similar position.

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Faked Polls being used "to push a narrative"

Poll_zpsxweqwwta.png

Daybreak : The Real Thing?

 

/ give Bill a thumbs up on his video! /

 

SR1282 – Fake Polls - Bill Still on the Andrea Kaye Show

 

The poll this morning shows that Trump has reversed his decline and is ahead by a statistically insignificant fraction of one percent, 44.4% to 43.8%.

But look at the trends:

197340_5_.png

The consensus throughout the media rooting for Hillary to win (95% of them) is that Trump is over, done, and needing a fork stuck in him as soon as possible. But nobody has a clue as to what turnout will be this time. Nobody knows how much vote fraud there will be.

Connect with me; Bill Still: Newspaper Editor/Publisher, Economics Reporter - top US Publications, authored 22 books, 4 Documentary Videos & daily host of this Y/T Channel THE STILL REPORT: https://plus.google.com/u/0/109353617116072656672

 

 

Bill Still There's a rumor that the MSM is going to collude with each other on election night to simply report fake results, bypassing the need/risk to commit voter fraud in order to ensure Hillary gets in. Have you heard this rumor?

 

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Trump cuts Hillary's lead in HALF to four points in latest poll, and 70% of Republicans believe vote rigging will hand Hillary victory
article-3860860-399BF7B900000578-465_154

The findings come after repeated statements by Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump that the media and the political establishment have rigged the election against him.

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SR 1284 – Las Vegas Oddsmaker Says Donald Trump Will Win

 

(Some miss-spellings, may or may not be accurate)

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As Bill Still has said, the mainstream media polls are falling into line with each other

 

... showing a 4 point lead for Clinton

 

Trump gains on Clinton, poll shows 'rigged' message resonates - 13 Hours Ago. Reuters
103939591-GettyImages-578546876.530x298.
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump gives two thumbs up to the crowd during the evening session on the fourth day of the Republican National Convention on July 21, 2016 at the Quicken Loans Arena in Cleveland, Ohio.

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump gained on his Democratic rival Hillary Clinton among American voters this week, cutting her lead nearly in half, according to Reuters/Ipsos polling released on Friday.

The polling data showed Trump's argument that the Nov. 8 election is "rigged" against him has resonated with members of his party.

 

"Remember folks, it's a rigged system," Trump told a Pennsylvania rally on Friday. "That's why you've got to get out and vote, you've got to watch. Because this system is totally rigged."

Clinton led Trump 44 percent to 40 percent, according to the Oct. 14-20 Reuters/Ipsos poll, a 4-point lead. That compared with 44 percent for Clinton and 37 percent for Trump in the Oct. 7-13 poll released last week.

An average of national opinion polls by RealClearPolitics shows Clinton 6.2 percentage points ahead at 48.1 percent support to Trump's 41.9 percent.

==

> http://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/22/trump-gains-on-clinton-poll-shows-rigged-message-resonates.html

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Professor stands by prediction that Trump will win

 

Published on Oct 22, 2016

Helmut Norpoth discusses problems with poll numbers

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I was just watching a BBC-I know,I know- report on the election and they were at a uni campus in the states.One of the people trying to get students to vote was saying there wasn't much interest among millenials.

 

Trump currently 5.9 on BF.Tempted to have another nibble.........................even though plan was to wait till early Nov.

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Professor stands by prediction that Trump will win

 

Published on Oct 22, 2016

Helmut Norpoth discusses problems with poll numbers

 

He raises the key point being discussed yesterday on here on a thread,which is turnout.As per my last post,I think HRC has real problems.If you can't get young people out for the left,then you have a problem.

 

This could be because they're wise to her.Young people read Wikileaks.

 

Trump on the other hand,has no problem turning out his supporters.

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Yes.

And there are said to be some MORE damaging leaks to come.

 

The US media coverage of this election has thoroughly disgusted me.

I am glad I do not live there, but I may have been able to Red Pill more people if I was

 

Friends I have spoken to in the UK and Europe seem drunk on MSM toxic KoolAId.

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But a recent batch of Texas polls showing the Clinton-Trump gap in single digits has raised ...

 

Could we be headed for another 'Brexit'? Trump supporters think so

Los Angeles Times‎ - 1 day ago
===

Comes now Jim Henson, head of the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas in Austin, along with his colleague, Joshua Blank, to throw a few pitchers of cold water on the prospect.

“While the trend line in Texas presidential polling certainly justifies this speculation, there are good reasons not to go too far down the road toward speculating … Texas turning blue,” the two of them wrote.

In a “back-of-the-envelope thought experiment,” they sifted through past voting performance, current voter registration figures and other political juju and concluded that a Clinton victory in the state is awfully darned unlikely.

“There is good reason to believe that polling is finding Texas leaning Republican rather than the solid Republican state it has been in presidential elections for most of the last three decades,” they concluded.

. . .

Brexit” is the new Truman.

“I don't believe the polls any more,” Donald Trump proclaimed to the crowd at a rally earlier this week in Colorado Springs. “Believe me folks, we’re doing great,” he said. “This is another Brexit.”

Could he be right?

Upsets do happen. Sometimes longshots do win. But the analogy to Brexit has two big flaws: It misrepresents what happened in Britain and misreads what’s taking place in the U.S.

Brexit — the British referendum on whether to exit the European Union — passed in June, 52%-48%. The result caught many in Britain by surprise, including financial-market traders who had bet heavily on Britain staying in the EU after two late polls showed the “Remain” side winning.

Since then, a narrative has taken hold that the polls were wrong. They weren’t, at least not in any big, consistent way. About half the polls in the final month showed the “Leave” side winning. The polling average on election eve showed a near tie, and the trend line showed Leave steadily gaining ground.

The real lesson of Brexit is not that the polls were wrong, it’s that opinion leaders and market traders refused to believe the surveys that showed their preferred side losing and bet on the ones that told them what they wanted to hear.

So, what about the current U.S. polls? There are some, most notably our USC/Los Angeles Times “Daybreak” tracking poll, that show Trump and Clinton in a near tie.

As I wrote at the end of August, the Daybreak poll, because of the way it’s designed, “presents something of a best-case scenario for Trump — one in which he succeeds in getting large numbers of previous nonvoters to cast ballots for him.” When your best case is a near tie (a lead of 0.7 percentage points as of Friday morning), that’s not much to go on.

And, of course, the Daybreak poll is very much an outlier among surveys. Here are some frequently asked questions about the poll and why it differs from other surveys.

Being an outlier doesn’t mean a poll is wrong, but in the vast majority of cases, the average of polls provides the most accurate forecast. On average, polls currently show Clinton leading by about seven points.

It’s also notable that the poll shows a large majority of respondents believing that Clinton will win. That question about voter expectations is often more reliable than the standard one about which candidate people plan to support. The group that believes Clinton will win includes a lot of Trump supporters who have begun to predict their candidate will lose.

Taking the long view, a seven-point Clinton lead has been the norm in this race since Trump secured the GOP nomination. The exceptions were two stretches — the period immediately before and after the GOP convention and the week in mid-September that was dominated by stories about Clinton’s health.

Since scientific polling of U.S. elections began, there’s no example of a presidential candidate coming back in the final weeks from the sort of deficit Trump now faces. Could it happen? Sure. But, if it does, as Truman said, it will be “one for the books.”

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But a recent batch of Texas polls showing the Clinton-Trump gap in single digits has raised ...

 

Could we be headed for another 'Brexit'? Trump supporters think so

Los Angeles Times‎ - 1 day ago
===

Comes now Jim Henson, head of the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas in Austin, along with his colleague, Joshua Blank, to throw a few pitchers of cold water on the prospect.

“While the trend line in Texas presidential polling certainly justifies this speculation, there are good reasons not to go too far down the road toward speculating … Texas turning blue,” the two of them wrote.

In a “back-of-the-envelope thought experiment,” they sifted through past voting performance, current voter registration figures and other political juju and concluded that a Clinton victory in the state is awfully darned unlikely.

“There is good reason to believe that polling is finding Texas leaning Republican rather than the solid Republican state it has been in presidential elections for most of the last three decades,” they concluded.

. . .

Brexit” is the new Truman.

“I don't believe the polls any more,” Donald Trump proclaimed to the crowd at a rally earlier this week in Colorado Springs. “Believe me folks, we’re doing great,” he said. “This is another Brexit.”

Could he be right?

Upsets do happen. Sometimes longshots do win. But the analogy to Brexit has two big flaws: It misrepresents what happened in Britain and misreads what’s taking place in the U.S.

Brexit — the British referendum on whether to exit the European Union — passed in June, 52%-48%. The result caught many in Britain by surprise, including financial-market traders who had bet heavily on Britain staying in the EU after two late polls showed the “Remain” side winning.

Since then, a narrative has taken hold that the polls were wrong. They weren’t, at least not in any big, consistent way. About half the polls in the final month showed the “Leave” side winning. The polling average on election eve showed a near tie, and the trend line showed Leave steadily gaining ground.

The real lesson of Brexit is not that the polls were wrong, it’s that opinion leaders and market traders refused to believe the surveys that showed their preferred side losing and bet on the ones that told them what they wanted to hear.

So, what about the current U.S. polls? There are some, most notably our USC/Los Angeles Times “Daybreak” tracking poll, that show Trump and Clinton in a near tie.

As I wrote at the end of August, the Daybreak poll, because of the way it’s designed, “presents something of a best-case scenario for Trump — one in which he succeeds in getting large numbers of previous nonvoters to cast ballots for him.” When your best case is a near tie (a lead of 0.7 percentage points as of Friday morning), that’s not much to go on.

And, of course, the Daybreak poll is very much an outlier among surveys. Here are some frequently asked questions about the poll and why it differs from other surveys.

Being an outlier doesn’t mean a poll is wrong, but in the vast majority of cases, the average of polls provides the most accurate forecast. On average, polls currently show Clinton leading by about seven points.

It’s also notable that the poll shows a large majority of respondents believing that Clinton will win. That question about voter expectations is often more reliable than the standard one about which candidate people plan to support. The group that believes Clinton will win includes a lot of Trump supporters who have begun to predict their candidate will lose.

Taking the long view, a seven-point Clinton lead has been the norm in this race since Trump secured the GOP nomination. The exceptions were two stretches — the period immediately before and after the GOP convention and the week in mid-September that was dominated by stories about Clinton’s health.

Since scientific polling of U.S. elections began, there’s no example of a presidential candidate coming back in the final weeks from the sort of deficit Trump now faces. Could it happen? Sure. But, if it does, as Truman said, it will be “one for the books.”

 

I think there are real issues with a lot of US polls not least the sheer variance nationally.

 

You pays yer money you takes yer chance.

The people voting early will generally not be the swing voters more Reps/Dems casting early ballots.

 

So the last three weeks is important for that crucial sector./

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ROGER STONE talks (with his guest) about Rigging elections - and exit polls etc

 

At about 1:20 Hours into this

Roger Stone - Stone Cold Truth Radio (Oct. 22nd, 2016)

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Scott Adams, Oct. 11, on whether the polls can be believed

 

Published on Oct 14, 2016

[5 of 6] Excerpts from Oct. 11, 2016, Periscope TV broadcast by Scott Adams (creator of Dilbert).

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ABC News Clinton +12

 

I believe I heard that this was one of the most heavily rigged

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ABC News Clinton +12

 

I believe I heard that this was one of the most heavily rigged

As if on cue Doc

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-23/how-wapos-latest-poll-give-hillary-12-point-advantage-over-trump

'

This Is How WaPo's Latest Poll Gave Hillary A 12 Point Advantage Over Trump

picture-5.jpg
Oct 23, 2016 4:40 PM

Those waking up to read the news this morning will undoubtedly be "shocked" by the latest ABC / Washington Post goal seeking report (aka "poll") that shows Hillary opening up a 12-point lead with likely voters after the latest debate last Wednesday. Ironically, this latest polling farce was "embargoed for release after 9 a.m." EST which will certainly make it a dominant topic of conversation on all the morning talk shows.

Of course, like many of the recent polls from the likes of Reuters, ABC and The Washington Post, something curious emerges when you look just beneath the surface of the headline 12-point lead.

"METHODOLOGY – This ABC News poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone Oct. 20-22, 2016, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 874 likely voters. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3.5 points, including the design effect. Partisan divisions are
36-27-31 percent, Democrats - Republicans - Independents
."

As we've pointed out numerous times in the past, in response to Reuters' efforts to "tweak" their polls, per the The Pew Research Center, at least since 1992, democrats have never enjoyed a 9-point registration gap despite the folks at ABC and The Washington Post somehow convincing themselves it was a reasonable margin.

2016.10.23%20-%20ABC%20Poll%204.jpg

 

Of course, despite the glaring bias in the sample pool, Hillary's obedient lap dog, John Harwood, was among the first to pump the results by tweeting out the following just two minutes after the embargo was lifted:

new ABC national poll: Clinton 50%, Trump 38%, Johnson 5%, Stein 2%

— John Harwood (@JohnJHarwood)

 

No one knows how to suck up to the Clinton campaign like John (#HarDwoodForHillary)...

Another day, another Harwood

— zerohedge (@zerohedge)

 

This new poll comes just 9 days after a previous ABC / Washington Post poll which showed only a 4-point national lead for Clinton. While ABC and WaPo claim the massive swing came as the result of Trump's "treatment of women and his reluctance to endorse the election’s legitimacy" during the debate, it seems unlikely that anyone truly believes that Wednesday's debate caused an 8-point swing in voter preference. Certainly not these people on CNN:

CNN Asks Its Focus Group Who Won the Final Debate… Then INSTANTLY Regrets It

— Dan The Deplorable (@Daniel_Ohana)

 

In any event, here is how ABC and WaPo have seen the polling data trend over time. Ironically, they found absolutely no dip for Hillary after her 9/11 "medical episode", probably one of the biggest events of the election season so far, but were able to convince themselves that Wednesday's debate caused an 8 point swing.

2016.10.23%20-%20ABC%20Poll%201_0.JPG

 

Meanwhile, with huge variances in preference across demographics one can easily see how simple it is to "rig" a poll by over indexing to one group vs. another. While the pollsters release the the split of the sample pool by political affiliation, they do not share the split by any of the following demographics which are just as important to determining the outcome of the poll.

2016.10.23%20-%20ABC%20Poll%203_0.JPG

Just one more example of how to rig a poll and dominate a Sunday morning news cycle.'

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New Podesta Email Exposes Dem Playbook For Rigging Polls Through "Oversamples"

picture-5.jpg
Oct 23, 2016 5:50 PM

Earlier this morning we wrote about the obvious sampling bias in the latest ABC / Washington Post poll that showed a 12-point national advantage for Hillary. Like many of the recent polls from Reuters, ABC and The Washington Post, this latest poll included a 9-point sampling bias toward registered democrats.

"METHODOLOGY – This ABC News poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone Oct. 20-22, 2016, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 874 likely voters. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3.5 points, including the design effect. Partisan divisions are
36-27-31 percent, Democrats - Republicans - Independents
."

Of course, while democrats may enjoy a slight registration advantage of a couple of points, it is no where near the 9 points reflected in this latest poll.

Meanwhile, we also pointed out that with huge variances in preference across demographics one can easily "rig" a poll by over indexing to one group vs. another. As a quick example, the ABC / WaPo poll found that Hillary enjoys a 79-point advantage over Trump with black voters. Therefore, even a small "oversample" of black voters of 5% could swing the overall poll by 3 full points. Moreover, the pollsters don't provide data on the demographic mix of their polls which makes it impossible to "fact check" the bias...convenient.

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Meanwhile, with huge variances in preference across demographics one can easily see how simple it is to "rig" a poll by over indexing to one group vs. another. While the pollsters release the the split of the sample pool by political affiliation, they do not share the split by any of the following demographics which are just as important to determining the outcome of the poll.

2016.10.23%20-%20ABC%20Poll%203_0.JPG

Just one more example of how to rig a poll and dominate a Sunday morning news cycle.'

 

Looking at the POLL numbers, it shows how College has helped to PROGRAM women

 

Within College educated females in the ABC Poll, the Satanic One has a +32 Pct-point advantage.

I guarantee, it is not because they have learned how to used their brains for Discernment.

 

If Hillary wins this heavily-spun election, then I will not regret the likely destruction of public-financed Colleges

that we are likely to see in the years ahead

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According to this, Trump has a 2 point lead in early voting in Florida. The early voting in 2012 in Florida had the Democrats with a 3 point lead so this could be a good sign.

 

http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2016/10/big-donald-trump-continues-lead-florida-early-voting/

I'd weigh it more carefully given the preponderance of over 60's in Florida and their likelihood to vote Trump.

 

Having said that,yes,an early good sign from a key swing state.

 

These Wikileaks just keep coming.

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http://www.investors.com/politics/trump-clinton-in-dead-heat-as-race-hits-final-two-week-stretch-ibdtipp-poll/

 

'The poll of 815 likely voters has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 3.6 percentage points. It had a weighted response of 291 Democrats, 235 Republicans and 271 people who called themselves either "Independents" or "other."

Unlike many other polls, the IBD/TIPP Poll continues to show a tightening race, as the candidates and their surrogates slug it out in public in the waning days until the November 8 polling date.'

 

Interesting that IBD have a biased weighting towards registered Dems and yet get a completely different result to ABC.Interesting as well that Trump still tieing.

 

IBD/TIPP has the best record in polling nationally.

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I'd weigh it more carefully given the preponderance of over 60's in Florida and their likelihood to vote Trump.

 

Having said that,yes,an early good sign from a key swing state.

 

These Wikileaks just keep coming.

 

I didn't think of that.

 

There's not much in the MSM about it, no surprise there, but it's circulating on Twitter so hopefully he gains some momentum from it.

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I didn't think of that.

 

There's not much in the MSM about it, no surprise there, but it's circulating on Twitter so hopefully he gains some momentum from it.

It's still a good sign.Early voters tend to be older and are more likely to vote.

 

It also depends how they're assessing the count.In the UK,the tellers from parties can roughly estimate the vote weighting as the envelopes are opened and that's the only time you see the ballot papers until count day.

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