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US Presidential Polls 2016-the run in.

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Just starting this thread for a separate discussion in terms of polling data.

Pretty good news for Trump across the board showing a strong following wind from 2nd debate.The standouts here are Virginia/Ohio.Trump closing in nicely after a rough week or two.

 

Ohio Trump +1

 

Ohio Clinton +2

 

North Carolina Clinton +4 +2 +4

 

Georgia Trump +6

 

Virginia Clinton +3

 

New Hampshire Clinton +3

 

More good news for Trump.Obama won this 52%-46.4% in 2012.In July HRC was polling a double figure lead.Now moving into too close to call territory.

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SUMMARY : http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/us/elections/polls.html

Daybreak- : http://cesrusc.org/election/

 

BETS

====
> Paddy Power: GBP1000 on each : http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/us-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=791149
Clinton : 2 / 7 (x 0.285: GBP285) == Trump : 11/4 ( 2.75: GBP2,750) = + HRC: 9.65

> Betfair : GBP1000 on each : https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?id=924.8325569&exp=e
Clinton : 1.33-1.34 (x 0.335: GBP335) == Trump ; 4.3-4.4 ( 3.35: GBP3,350) = + HRC: 10.00

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/ 1 /

 

/ 2 /

SR1267, Two Ohio Polls Show Donald Trump Way Ahead of Crooked Clinton

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The lies are galvanizing Trump's supporters

 

Internal Polls Revealed: Mainstream Media Failing

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hdD9W5M6kjw

 

The satanic bitch is ready to tell any lie, and maybe even start a war to avoid being defeated. Imagine that

 

 

They will be calling him a pedophile, terrorist or murderer by November, but we are too smart and know how they operate. Hitler became delusional at the end of WW2, the same thing is happening to the mainstream media. They have become delusional, complacent and arrogant, they think they are winning and people actually believe or trust them, this is false. They are pulling the strings yet the eye of Lucifer is blind and their puppets will not dance, it must fail through our waking up and peaceful non-compliance.

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5 hours ago - an Update

 

The MSM Polls need to tighten, because the pollsters rely on getting it right (to maintain their reputations)

 

Donald Trump Widens Lead in Daybreak Poll Over Crooked Hillary

 

He's slight behind among Millennials

 

BUT likely has a huge lead among those enthusiastic about voting

 

Hillary has here biggest lead with low incomes (& low IQ's?) "who want more free stuff"

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FOX Admits Virtual Dead Heat

 

Fox News Sunday with Chris Wallace 10/16/16 | Pence responds to allegations against Donald Trump

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2GjQ6aM_9fE

 

Published on Oct 16, 2016

Fox News Sunday with Chris Wallace 10/16/16 | Pence responds to allegations against Donald Trump

*Sunday— Just three days before the last presidential debate between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump—we’ll speak to Donald Trump's running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence.
*We'll also speak to Hillary Clinton's running mate, Senator Tim Kaine (D-VA)

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Not easy to view this where I am - but let me share this reaction:

I am very skeptical of anything on CNN< because it is probably the most consistently bias TV/Cable network

 

Some call it: CNN, the Clinton News Network.

 

But I will try to watch it, when I get a better connection

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He's slight behind among Millennials

 

BUT likely has a huge lead among those enthusiastic about voting

 

Hillary has here biggest lead with low incomes (& low IQ's?) "who want more free stuff"

SOme building blocks for Trumps voting coaltion

1) people over 60 who remember a diufferent USA

2) gun owners

3) people who hate Hilary

 

1+3 coincidentally sections of society that are highly likely to vote

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A sign of the polling problems

Rasmussen Clinton +2

Monmouth Clinton +12

They can't both be right

 

 

Some State polls that are post accusations vs Trump

Ohio Trump +4

Ohio Tie

North Carolina Clinton +1

Florida Clinton +4

Pennsylvania Clinton +6

Nevada Clinton +6

Colorado Clinton +8

 

With the exception of the last two Trump should be pleased with those

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http://www.politico.com/blogs/swing-states-2016-election/2016/10/clinton-trump-polls-colorado-florida-pennsylvania-ohio-who-is-winning-229898

 

'Clinton and Trump each garner 45 percent support in Ohio among likely voters, with Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein at 6 percent and 1 percent, respectively.

Clinton’s largest lead in the swing state polls comes in Colorado, where the former secretary of state tops Trump by 8 percentage points, 45 percent to 37 percent. She leads by 6 percentage points in Pennsylvania, 47 percent to 41 percent, and 4 percentage points in Florida, 48 percent to 44 percent.

Johnson sits at 10 percent in Colorado, 4 percent in Florida and 6 percent in Pennsylvania. Stein registers at 3 percent in Colorado and 1 percent in Florida and Pennsylvania.'

 

 

 

Clinton has to beware of telling everyone she's going to win as some of the Bernie voters may feel free to stay home rather than back HRC

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Clinton support is a Hillusion

 

SR1272 - Trump Climbs Ahead of Crooked Hillary Clinton in USC Daybreak Poll

.
(David S. made a call: LANDSLIDE! for Trump)

.
Fact: Donald Trump will win!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6xS5cZQxMUM
Published on Oct 17, 2016
I've done the math. Donald Trump will win in a landslide. Hillary Clinton's support is no longer organic, if it ever was

- she's a media supported illusion, supported by few in the real world.

 

A Hillusion?

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Just to point out the problems for the pollsters in terms of turnout.Brexit was 72%,a post war record for the UK despite predictions of low turnout.

 

I think there are going to be a lot of new voters on Trump's side and a lot of non voters on Hilary's side.I'm not sure the pollsters can allow for that in any meaningful way.

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http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/10/18/trump_misses_benchmarks_is_running_out_of_time_132081.html

 

'

This graphic summarizes how much polls typically move between Election Day and a given number of days beforehand. The green points show the difference between polls on a given day and the final polling average heading into the election for all presidential races from 1972 to 2012. The black line is the trend line -- it provides an upper limit for how much polls typically move between a given day in the fall and Election Day. (Details on the math and data can be found here.)

Two specific features of this data jump out: Trump is missing his benchmarks and his ability to shift the polls may quickly start to wane.'

 

This illustrates the perils of trying to judge this election by previous ones.

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"Doing battle with the Forces of Darkness"

 

Donald Trump Is Winning | Bill Mitchell and Stefan Molyneux

 

Published on Oct 17, 2016

MP3: http://www.fdrpodcasts.com/#/3458/don...

 

"Why is the over-sampling ALWAYS in favor of Hillary"

 

"These false polls are giving the Democrats false confidence"

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Trump is Rising In the Polls Again, Rapidly

 

Published on Oct 16, 2016

 

OKeiffe's videos should help, as Pussygate accusations wear thin

 

Later:

O'Keefe Drops First Major Video: It's a Half-Doozie

 

 

Rigging the Election Part 2 is Out... A True Doozie! (O'Keefe, Veritas)

 

> GEI thread: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=21031

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Rigging the Election Part 2 is Out... A True Doozie! (O'Keefe, Veritas)

 

"Fovel was fired yesterday...This is illegal, They should be behind bars"

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A good few national polls out.iirc

Trump +1,tie,clinton +4 X 2.then a bloomberg +9 and a quinnipac +6.

 

All in all a real mixed bunch.keen to see some Penn sylvania polls .....

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The betting pattern that signals a Trump presidency isn't as remote as the world thinks

.

William Hill slashes odds on Trump victory amid betting patterns eerily reminiscent of those seen in the lead up to the EU referendum

donaldtrump.jpg

The bookmaker cuts odds on a Trump win from 11-2 to 4-1 over the past two days after a betting surge

 

It is news that will strike fear into the hearts of perhaps half of America and large chunks of the world outside of it.

Despite a calamitous week of campaigning, betting markets on the US election are almost a mirror image of those on Britain’s EU referendum at this stage. And they could be pointing to a victory for Donald Trump.

Bookmaker William Hill says 71 per cent of the money so far staked is for Democrat Hillary Clinton. But 65 per cent of the bets by number are for the controversial Republican.


Trump effectively rejects US election result before votes have even been counted

That means a lot more punters are putting smaller bets on Trump, almost exactly the same pattern as was seen in the run up to the Brexit vote when the money was for Remain but the majority of bets were for Leave.

The bookie has cut the odds on a Trump victory from 11-2 to 4-1 over the past two days in response to a surge in bets for the reality TV star and businessman turned politician.

==

> more: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-elections/punters-rush-to-back-trump-despite-disastrous-week-of-campaigning-a7368196.html

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Watch the video here,it explains why IBD/TIPP has been the best pollster over last three elections.

 

They're currently calling it Trump +1.......

 

http://www.investors.com/politics/ibd-tipp-tracking-poll-most-accurate-presidential-poll/

'

The 2012 election is a case in point.

With less than two weeks to go, a number of polls showed a significant lead for Republican challenger Mitt Romney. Gallup, for instance, had Romney up by six points with just a week to go. Meanwhile, other polls showed an "enthusiasm gap", with GOP supporters far more motivated to vote than Democrats.

It looked like it could be a blowout — for the Republicans. But our own 2012 polling showed something different, with incumbent Barack Obama having the edge.

How did we stack up in the end? By our calculations, based on final results of 11 national polls that have been active over the past three presidential elections, IBD/TIPP was among the most accurate polls in 2012. Indeed, polling analyst Nate Silver, then of the New York Times' blog FiveThirtyEight, ranked 23 presidential polling organizations in 2012 using a different method than the one we used and described IBD/TIPP as "the most accurate" tracking poll for the year.

Over the long term, our own tally shows that for the 2004, 2008 and 2012 elections IBD/TIPP's average prediction for the final presidential vote margin was the most accurate, with a difference of a mere 0.9% between our predictions and the final outcomes for all three years.

As the chart with this suggests, this was no fluke.

 

 

In 2008, we got Obama's final margin of victory exactly right, predicting a 7.2 percentage point victory for President Obama over Sen. John McCain.

As for 2004, with just days to go, some polls still had John Kerry beating George W. Bush by as many as two percentage points. IBD/TIPP's prediction: A 2.1 percentage point win for Bush. The final difference: a 2.5-percentage-point win for Bush.

How does IBD/TIPP do it? It starts with a random sample of registered voters and likely voters, who are identified based on a series of carefully crafted questions. There are typically between 850 and 1,000 respondents, giving a margin of error for both groups of plus-or-minus 3.4 percentage points, at a 95% confidence level. What that means is that, statistically speaking, we're 95% sure that our polls will be within 3.4 percentage points of the actual result.

TechnoMetrica collects its information via telephone, calling both landline and cellphones. Roughly 65% of the respondents come from cellphones, and 35% from landlines. All the calls are made live — there are no "robocalls."

To fine tune the results, proprietary data are used to accurately adjust for race, gender, region and political party affiliation of the nation as a whole. This assures a more accurate end result than simply relying on raw poll responses.

It's a matter of record that the IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll, which we will publish this year starting on October 20 and running through to November 7, has been the nation's best over the past three election cycles — something we're quite proud of. As we've said before, our polling partner, Raghavan Mayur, and his able staff at TechnoMetrica, deserve credit for their title as "America's Most Accurate Pollster." They've earned it.'

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