Jump to content
drbubb

The Builder Bellwether Index (BBI)- Monthly Statistics

Recommended Posts

Hmmm, well maybe but i would be very cautious.

Believe me or not, but Barratt's have issued an instruction not to pay sub-contractors for the next month whilst they progress funding issues. ;)

 

That's big news!

If they persist, they can easily be thrown into bank ruptcy.

Couldnt happen to a nicer bunch!

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(for those with any doubts left that things are headed "into the toilet"):

 

Barratt shares 95pc down in housing gloom

 

article-0-004AECC000000578-119_468x286.j

 

Fears of a collapse in the housing market stripped millions off the share values of leading builders yesterday.

 

Halifax Bank of Scotland, the UK's biggest mortgage lender, was also badly hit.

 

The sharpest fall - 42 per cent at one stage - came in shares of Barratt Developments.

Homes

 

It was the third day of losses and meant Barratt's shares had shed a staggering 95 per cent of their value since the peak early last year.

 

In a torrid day's trading, there were also falls for Taylor Wimpey, Persimmon and Bellway.

 

Barratt is one of Britain's best-known homebuilders, having built and sold over 300,000 homes.

 

It was founded in Newcastle in 1958 by entrepreneur Sir Lawrie Barratt and operates from some 30 sites.

 

But its finances have been stretched since it snapped up rival Wilson Bowden for £2.2billion in February last year - at the top of the market. This gave the combined group a market value of £4.3billion.

. . .

The falls in housing-related shares have now put at risk HBOS's own plan to raise a £4billion emergency fund.

 

Nearly 12 per cent was wiped off the lender's market value yesterday, leaving shares trading well below the 275p level at which investors are being asked to buy new stock.

 

The housebuilding sector is under pressure from a shortage of buyers, both because mortgages are more expensive and harder to obtain and on fears of a house price crash.

 

The Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors said this week that estate agents sold fewer homes in the first quarter of this month than at any time since it began collecting data in 1978.

 

Figures for May from the Halifax and Nationwide also showed the steepest fall in house prices since the recession of the early 1990s.

 

Last night the leading City investment bank Merrill Lynch said the faltering housing market is in real danger of mirroring the 1990s recession that saw prices plummet and left thousands of families in negative equity.

 

Analyst Mark Hake said: 'We have gone beyond the tipping point and are clearly seeing a UK housing market being squeezed on opposing fronts - by a lack both of willing lenders and willing purchasers'.

 

He said the severity of the housing slowdown would be determined by unemployment trends. The gloomy warning came as official figures showed the fourth consecutive monthly rise in unemployment claimants.

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10...sing-gloom.html

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
That's big news!

If they persist, they can easily be thrown into bank ruptcy.

Couldnt happen to a nicer bunch!

 

Bovis paying on 90 days now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I believe spline is behind this website: http://www.houseprices.uk.net/

It's great to see he is keeping the "Builder Bellwether index" (invented by "yours truly") up to date

 

housebuilderscu2.png

 

House price indices usually suffer from an inherent time lag, so why not look for a real-time indicator of UK house prices? This house builders index is based on the their quoted share price looks quite promising. It picked up on the mini-downturn in late-2004 and subsequent recovery in 2005, and has clearly signalled recent collapse that started in late-2007.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
It's great to see he is keeping the "Builder Bellwether index" (invented by "yours truly") up to date

 

housebuilderscu2.png

 

House price indices usually suffer from an inherent time lag, so why not look for a real-time indicator of UK house prices? This house builders index is based on the their quoted share price looks quite promising. It picked up on the mini-downturn in late-2004 and subsequent recovery in 2005, and has clearly signalled recent collapse that started in late-2007.

 

Not sure how we can see shoots of recovery when these sort of figures are still being churned out?

 

NEW YORK, Jan 9 (Reuters) - Builder KB Home posted a quarterly loss on Friday, citing unprecedented pressures on the industry and the economy, and said

conditions in 2009 would remain difficult or worsen.

The No. 5 U.S. homebuilder posted a net loss of $307.3 million, or $3.96per share, for the fourth quarter ended on Nov. 30, compared with a year-earlier

loss of $772.7 million, or $9.99 per share.

Revenue fell 56 percent to $919 million.

 

Riggers

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

THE BIG PICTURE ??

 

AMERICA : Deflation may come back with a ROAR in July (stocks, oil, and the economy lower)

BRITAIN- : Stagflation may become more apparent, if/when Sterling rounds out a top

 

Big Difference - is in Property, the extent of the drop, & size of the rebound

COMPARE:

 

=== CURRENT YEAR, US Data ===

Mo : comp20, - chg.% , CSXR, - chg.%, mom%

Top: 206.52 , (07/06) : 226.29, (06/06) - mid.2006

dec : 150.56, -18.60% : 162.11, -19.22%, -2.31%

2009 -

jan : 146.34, -19.01% : 157.96, -19.44%, -2.56%

feb : 143.10, -18.67% : 154.60, -18.89%, -2.13%

mar: 139.97, -18.72% : 151.36, -18.68%, -2.10%

apr : 139.18, -18.12% : 150.34, -18.01%, -0.67%

. . .

.vs. the Top : -32.61% : 34mos -33.56%

 

=== CURRENT YEAR, UK Data ===

Mo : Halifax, Nat'wde, Ave.H&N - chg.%, mom%

Top: 201,081, 186,044: 192,490 (08/07) - Q3.'07

dec: 158,437, 153,048: 155,743 -17.47%, - 3.05%

2009 -

jan : 159,818, 150,501 : 155,160 -16.52%, - 0.37%

feb : 159,208, 147,746 : 153,477 -17.66%, - 1.08%

mar: 157,066, 150,946 : 154,066 -16.69%, +0.34%

apr : 157,156, 151,861 : 154,509 -16.37%, +0.33%

may 160,869, 154,016 : 157,443 -12.55%, +1.89%

jun : ====== 156,442 : ======

. . .

Top : -20.00% -15.91% : 21mos -18.21%

 

= = =

 

 

"In California, state finance officials will begin issuing IOUs on Thursday"

 

That's tomorrow!

And so it begins...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As a footnote for this thread on the i-Phone ...

A EARLY WARNING of the end of the Dead Cat bounce??

 

I think it is cool to think someone could look at their phone, and see BDEV breaking below the 76d.MA with volume,

and turn towards a wife, friend, or colleague and say:

"Well, there's some bad news! It looks like the UK property market's 'Dead Cat bounce' has just ended."

 

I did something similar to that myself, when I noticed that this move had happened:

1248762379080985400.gif

 

That was BDEV on Thursday 2 April 2009: closing at 107p. +18p on good volume (8.45 million shares)*

 

When I saw that result, I produced this posting for HPC: (dated Sat. 4 April 2009, at 2:05 am, 10:05 am HK time):

 

A WARNING to would-be homebuyers... A "Dead Cat Bounce" may soon be underway !

 

A Global "dead cat bounce" in property will soon be underway, I reckon.

I make the argument for this elsewhere , we even recorded a podcast about it yesterday.

For many, this bounce may give a last chance to sell, and reduce debt before the second

leg down into a Greater Depression hits.

. . .

I really want to save UK people from a probable Bull Trap, which may will fall into, if they

buy on this "Dead Cat Bounce". They will then watch with horror as prices start sliding

again, when rates begin their inevitable rise, probably 9-18 months from now.

 

/more: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...howtopic=110340

 

I suppose that if I'd been sitting at a property auction and saw that happen on my phone,

I could have started bidding more aggressively, confident that an upward break was underway.

 

The web-connected i-phone is ushering in a new era. I will need to get one soon.

 

== ==

By contrast, yesterday (Monday), BDEV showed this action:

188.25 Change: -1.75 / -0.92%

Open: 192.25 High: 196.00 Low: 180.75 / Volume: 3,901,300 // BDEV-update

 

1248762537013788100.gif

 

BDEV is definitely looking "toppy", and indeed yesterday's action has several of the features that you

would expect to see at an important top (opening gap up, big reversal, pick-up in volume.)

 

But the action is not yet distinctive enough to say that a "breakdown with volume" has happened.

We could get some confirmation this week. Or it may surprise me, and reverse again and go to

new fresh highs. I will let the stock do the talking from here. But I do hope to be in a position soon

where I can declare unequivocally that it looks as if the top-in-BDEV is in place.

 

I hope to do that in early August. But even then, I will not be able to guarantee that the Top is done.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
However, that GBP holding is earmarked to eventually buy property when prices finally meet reality.

With house prices destined to fall further that GBP will reduce a future mortgage amount regardless of any run on the currency.

 

A shade wary of buying more CAD at the moment.

 

Why not get OUT of Sterling with at least 50%, and return later?

USD and Gold are two things I'd be looking at

 

= = =

 

 

BDEV is definitely looking "toppy", and indeed yesterday's action has several of the features that you

would expect to see at an important top (opening gap up, big reversal, pick-up in volume.)

 

But the action is not yet distinctive enough to say that a "breakdown with volume" has happened.

 

Has anyone noticed this? - A nice drop in BDEV today (so far):

 

BDEV 179.00 Change: -9.25 // Percent Change: -4.91%

Open: 189.75 High: 190.00 Low: 179.00 / Volume: 1,262,081

 

The volume is rather light so far, so this might not amount to anything more than a dip.

 

But it bears watching.

 

Others: Chart

PSN : -12.75p / Percent Change: -2.98%

BKG : -16.00p / Percent Change: -1.96%

UKX : -32.46 / / -0.71%

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I don't think it is that hard to understand people questioning themselves. Afterall, it is almost august and this spring bounce has lasted some. I don't think that the people here do not understand why the economy is shot to sh1t but instead know how little the masses understand and that perception is everything. If the government and vi's can convince the masses then they may just pull it off and get the wheels back on this thing, for a while atleast, inspite of the fact that most here know what a mess the country is in.

 

I dont get it...!

 

This bullish spasm is EXACTLY what we should expect to see in mid-summer 2009.

To me, this means the prediction of the Dead Cat bounce is on course and working well.

Why should anyone be surprised by this current wave of late-comer bullishness?

And you certainly should not be surprised if property stalls in August, and begins to slide in September.

 

That would be a perfect bullseye, as far as I am concerned.

(And I would not worry if the forecast missed by a month or two. The cycle would still be working.)

 

Doesnt it make sense that sentiment would - by necessity- become complacent and bullish like this

in order to drive the bounce beyond spring into summer?? How else could we get here? Without this

bullish spasm, the rally would have died with the spring.

 

rug%20pull%20out.jpg

 

And we need this excess of hope beyond reality, in order to create the conditions for "the Rug Pull" -

the sudden big collapse in hopes and in prices, which now look likely in the months to come.

 

449950478_72e858f294.jpg

 

You need to stop reading reading fancifull articles in the mainstream media, and start reading

human sentiment and psychology. It is the big swings in sentiment that drive big swings in prices.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks for the comments.

 

I am still very watchful

 

BDEV: 183.25p Change: -0.50 / Percent Change: -0.27%

 

Barratt's stock has shrugged its shoulders, yawned hard, and said:

"So what. That's Old News, Sheeple!"

 

The Bulls have re-taken control, for a day at least:

 

BDEV : 192.50 Change: +8.75 / Percent Change: +4.76%

Open: 184.25 High: 194.50 Low: 181.00 / Volume: 1,427,099

 

I was right to "await confirmation" by heavier volume, before calling the top.

However, thursday's rise came on low and disappointing volume, which is bearish.

 

xx1i.gif

 

Another bearish thing I did note in yesterday's trading was the late reversal in NY trading.

US trading has shown strength late in the session for the last several days. Thursday's

late day weakness makes a change in the trading pattern.

 

There's only one day left, if BDEV is going to put in its top in July, so obviously,

it may spill over into August. This rally may have bought the Cat a few days

reprieve, but I'm not changing my forecast that the Cat will be dead in autumn.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Fascinating chart - look at that amazing similarity

 

I stumbled across this relationship as I was examining the last 18 year cycle peak

 

ukprop1989.jpg

 

Previous peak in 1989 was Pds.62,782,

and I noticed that when I scaled it up by 3x, the peak was in line with the 2007 high (Pds.184,131)

 

I asked myself, what about the drop from the 1989 high, how big was it,

and how similar was the drop to what we have seen in 2007-9.

When I ran the numbers it proved really striking, almost spooky.

 

From the 1989 peak, the market dropped to almost exactly 50,000, and 3x that would be 150,000.

How close did the actual 2009 low come to that?

 

I decided to run the numbers more precisely, and I found this:

 

.. 1989 x Multiplier = .. 2007

===== .. ======= . =====

62,782 .. x 2.933 ...... 184,131 Peak levels, precise ratio: 2.93286

62,782 .. x 2.963 ...... 186,044 Nationwide NS.Oct07, ratio: 2.96333

50,000 .. x 2.963 ...... 148,150 "expected level"

 

The actual level (Nationwide, Feb.09 Low) was very close to that : 147,746, a remarkable similarity

 

I also note that 50,000/62,782 is a ratio of 79.6% (very near to a 20% drop), and

147,746/186,044 is a ratio of 79.4% - that is really rather amazingly close!

 

What does this mean?

Well, that the level from whence the Dead Cat bounce started looks as if it could have been

predicted months ahead of time with amazing accuracy. But this does not mean that we

have hit the ultimate low, simply a nice "harmonic ratio" in accord with the prior cycle low.

 

My own view is that the Feb.2009 low will be busted, and that will usher in a panic which

will demoralise the bulls, probably sometime in the first half of 2010. Once this shock hits,

the market will move lower, as homeowners realise the market will have to grind down and

find a lower low somewhere, possibly out in 2012/13.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

THE MUDSLINGERS are still with us / (from a HPC thread)

 

oh no, is DrBubb calling another false top in the 'dead cat'.

How many more months before bubb starts calling it what it is.......a V not a W.

What a misleading posting!

Anyone who wants to test the accuracy of my forecasts can just look at this thread,

and the popular one in the Market Psychology section. You will see that I have been

spot on with my (property) market calls since at least early 2007, as we approached the top

of the 18 year cycle.

 

Many others have tried their own forecasts, and you are welcome to do the same.

Put up (your own thread, show you can do better), or shut up!

 

Does anyone today recall the thread of Property Guru, saying the market was turning in October?

And how about the others back in April saying the market was going to slide lower.

 

It is not as easy as you may think. My threads have set some sort of standard, and so I

suggest : try and beat it, if you can. We might all learn from a more accurate forecast.

 

The only one I happily take my hat off to, is Spline who has a very useful website,

with some tools that are a nice supplement to the ones that I use

 

You are hilarious Bubb - guess what - the housing market slows at Christmas and picks up in the Spring.

Looking forward to your claims of being correct about the top when prices fall Jan and Feb and then your silence when they start rising again.

How many years have you been wrong about the direction of the UK housing market for?

You are making a horse's-petoot out of yourself with an uninformed posting like that.

But everyone knew that about you already from your postings here.

 

I will warn you now the if UK house prices stay in the channel that I have drawn here

hpiuk2009calls.gif

 

...then I will claim to have made a bullseye Market Call on the end of the Bull Trap rally.

Let's see if HPC's bulls can do any better. Please do try !

== == ==

 

RECENT DATA

M Hali.ns Na'wide Rt'move Delus% Ave.H&N Amom% AyoY%

9 159,818 150,501 213,570 137.6% 155,160 -0.37% -16.52%

F 159,208 147,746 216,163 140.8% 153,477 -1.08% -17.66%

M 157,066 150,946 218,081 141.6% 154,006 0.34% -16.69%

A 157,156 151,861 222,077 143.7% 154,509 0.33% -16.37%

M 160,869 154,016 227,441 144.5% 157,443 1.90% -12.55%

J 158,807 156,442 226,436 143.7% 157,625 0.12% -10.99%

J 160,686 158,871 227,864 142.6% 159,779 1.37% -8.11%

A 161,930 160,224 222,762 138.3% 161,077 0.81% -5.27%

S 164,854 161,816 223,996 137.1% 163,335 1.40% -2.53%

O 165,430 162,038 230,184 140.6% 163,734 0.24% 0.13%

N 165,617 162,764 226,440 137.9% 164,191 0.28% 2.21%

D

 

? 165,617 162,764 226,440 Latest 164,191

L 157,066 147,746 213,570 Low .. 153,477

t. . Mar'09 . Feb'09 . Jan'09. Timing . Feb'09

% + 5.44% 10.16% + 6.03% Rally% + 6.98%

H 201,081 186,044 241,642 Peak . 192,490

t. . Aug'07 . Oct'07 . Oct'07. Timing . Aug'07

% -17.64% -12.51% -6.29% Rally% -14.70%

== == ==

 

Delusion Index : Rightmove to the Average (Halifax & Nationwide)

hpiuk09delu.jpg

 

Buyers are ASKING much more than average prices

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
With all due respect calling a bounce that may last up to 18 months, does give you a pretty big window to get it right.

Alot can happen in a year, and if it does you're bound to get it right sighting an 18 month window to do so.

That was then (when it was turning up, about 9 months ago), and this is now.

 

And I am now trying to be more precise: This cycle should rollover again this winter, and may be rolling over now.

 

Look at the charts, and you will see that the window looks much narrower for me now.

"I really want to save UK people from a probable Bull Trap, which may will fall into, if they

buy on this "Dead Cat Bounce". They will then watch with horror as prices start sliding

again, when rates begin their inevitable rise, probably 9-18 months from now." - I said in April.

 

............aa1w.gif

So far, we have this:

hpiuk2009calls.gif

I think the coming slide will be steeper than the Blue line above suggests.

But NO GUARANTEE can be given. (I'm in the business here of making the best forecast I can,

but not in guaranteeing a result where no guarantee is possible. (I leave the wild promises

to those who feed hopes, in order to clean out wallets.)

 

Here's another forecaster who sees an almost immediate downturn

 

zzz.gif

/source: http://tinyurl.com/MnywkProp

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×