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The Builder Bellwether Index (BBI)- Monthly Statistics

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Builder Bellwether vs. Nationwide & Halifax Indices Chart

housebuildersgw8.png

 

BBI charts, intraday : http://www.webspawner.com/users/ukbuild/index.html

Spline's website etc : http://www.houseprices.uk.net/articles/house_builders_index/

Video on YouTube... : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iNeCetQeLLU

 

similar HPC thread : http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=13797

similar on GHPC... : http://forum.globalhousepricecrash.com/ind...showtopic=20540

 

STR-ing in 2001: threads: GHPC : HPC

 

XXX

HISTORICAL DATA===

R-Move WMPY BDEV== PSN-== WLB-=== BBY-== : Tot.Ipt: Gilt% / 26.80 /FTSE x4477

J'05 412- 0 603- 0 692- 0 1138- 0 340- 0 : 3185- 0: 4.60% /118.84 4852/109.66

F .. 471- 0 672- 0 778- 0 1234- 0 320- 5 : 3475- 5: 4.74% /129.66 4969/117.02

M .. 447- 5 660- 5 768- 2 1186- 5 313- 5 : 3374-22: 4.74% /125.90 4894/115.17

A .. 389- 9 593- 5 676- 5 1076- 9 303- 5 : 3037-33: 4.53% /113.32 4802/105.65

M .. 431- 8 660- 0 750- 0 1147- 0 322- 0 : 3310- 8: 4.39% /123.51 4964/111.39

J .. 439- 2 716- 0 780- 2 1135- 5 330- 0 : 3400- 9: 4.19% /126.87 5113/111.09

Jl . 426- 5 720- 0 800- 0 1150- 5 348- 0 : 3444-10: 4.29% /128.51 5282/108.92

A .. 410- 7 707- 3 829- 0 1139- 0 331- 5 : 3416-15: 4.14% /127.54 5329/107.14

S .. 428- 0 756- 0 858- 0 1166- 0 328- 3 : 3536- 3: 4.26% /131.94 5478/107.83

O .. 409-10 804- 0 862- 0 1124- 5 305-14 : 3504-29: 4.32% /130.75 5315/110.13

N .. 438- 2 906- 0 1105-0 1300- 0 336- 0 : 4085- 2: 4.19% /152.43 5423/125.84

D .. 480- 0 986- 0 1258-0 1450- 0 356- 0 : 4530- 0: 4.12% /169.03 5619/134.68

 

((gap in data here))

 

R-Move WMPY BDEV== PSN-== BDEV1.92* BBY- : Tot.Ipt: Gilt% / 26.80 /FTSE x4477

J'07 538- ? 1182-? 1386-? 2287- ? 417- ? : 5810- ?: ?.??% /216.79 6203/156.47

F .. 569- ? 1178-? 1396-? 2160- ? 454- ? : 5757- ?: ?.??% /214.81 6172/155.82

M .. 636- ? 1105-? 1406-? 2115- ? 477- ? : 5739- ?: ?.??% /214.14 6308/151.98

A .. 587- ? 1086-? 1347-? 2085- ? 469- ? : 5574- ?: ?.??% /207.99 6449/144.39

M .. 628- ? 1091-? 1366-? 2095- ? 460- ? : 5640- ?: ?.??% /210.44 6621/142.30

 

date 1.39TW BDEV= PSN- BDV1.92* BBY- : Tot.Idx / 26.80 /FTSE x4477

J/29: 501.4 , 993.0 , 1158-? 1906.6, 443- ? : 5002.0: / 186.64 6608/126.45 (end June) TW: 360.75

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((interim data)) -- from time-to-time

 

date WMPY BDEV= PSN- BDV1.92* BBY- : Tot.Ipt: Gilt% / 26.80 /FTSE x4477

M .. 628- ? 1091-? 1366-? 2095- ? 460- ? : 5640- ?: ?.??% /210.44 6621/142.30

J/08 573- ? 1035-? 1245-? 1987- ? 428- ? : 5268- ?: ?.??% /196.57 6501/135.37

J/21 543- ? 1005-? 1207-? 1930- ? 453- ? : 5138- ?: ?.??% /192.xx 6596/132.xx

J/28 506- ? 997 -? 1165-? 1914- ? 443- ? : 51xx- ?: ?.??% / 18x.xx 6570/13x.xx

J/30 503- ? 993 -? 1158-? 1907- ? 443- ? : 5004- ?: ?.??% / 18x.xx 6608/13x.xx (end June)

 

+ 503

+ 993

=1496

+1158

+1907

=4561

+ 443

=5004 /6008

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Recent closes:

 

date 1.39TW BDEV= PSN- BDV1.92* BBY- : Tot.Idx / 26.80 /FTSE x4477

J/29: 501.4 , 993.0 , 1158-? 1906.6, 443- ? : 5002.0: / 186.64 6608/126.45 (end June) TW: 360.75

Jul09 476.8 , 991.5 , 1164- , 1903.7, 458.25, : 4994.2: / 186.35 6713/124.48 - J09 TW: 343.0

Jul10 460.8 , 973.5 , 1150- , 19xx- , 449.75, : 4903.2: / 182.95 6631/123.95 -J10

TW: 331.5

 

Date : WMPY- / TW--- : Ratio = est.WMPY

10.07: ?????? / 331.50 x1.39 = 460.8

09.07: ?????? / 343.00 x1.39 = 476.8

= =

28.06: 507.00 / 364.25: 1.392

27.06: 513.00 / 369.00: 1.390

26.06: 525.50 / 378.75: 1.388

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Sudden Slump in Confidence Among Homebuyers"

The Times: Bovis banks on summer and autumn sales after a slump in homebuyer confidence

Bovis, the builder of upmarket homes, has reported that demand for its properties has all but dried up and that average sale prices are stagnating. Analysts said that Bovis would be forced to scrap its declared target of raising profits by 10 per cent for 2007 as a result of a sudden slump in confidence among homebuyers.

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Date: -TW-- 1.39xTW BDEV- PSN-- -BDVx1.92 -BBY- Tot.Idx /26.80 /FTSE x4477

Jl/29 360.75 501.44 993.0 1158.0 1906.56 443.00 5002.0 186.64 6608 126.45

jul13 334.75 465.30 969.5 1167.0 1861.44 453.00 4916.2 183.44 6717 122.27

 

Big plunge late Friday. Meantime, FTSE soared, so the adj.index got hammered.

 

It has fallen back to the levels of ... mid-Nov. 2005, when the UK Builders took off.

There should be support at about BB-110/112, which means the entire "last gasp" rally could be retraced soon.

 

A fall below 110, if sustained would signal some real trouble ahead, perhaps within 2007.

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(OLD Comment - worth re-visiting.

This was posted in August 2005, and obviously I have changed my view on the length of the UK cycle.

I really should have looked back more than two cycles, as Fred Harrison has done.):

 

SOME THOUGHTS on Future UK House prices:

 

+ A “crash” will not happen overnight, out of the blue, and it will take time for momentum to develop,

 

+ I have had considerable success in forecasting cycles in other markets: including shipping, stocks, and gold, and even a certain amount of renown for doing so. And I believe that property has shown a fairly clear cycle of 15 years, which has generally been: 10 years up, followed by 5 years down. On this basis, I believe the upcycle started in 1994, ended in 2004, and the downcycle “should” finish in 2009/2010. (Greater London prices here)

 

+ I Do not expect instant falls. I believe we should be seeing 1%+ monthly falls by year-end, and that such a rate will persist for years on the way to 2009-2010.

 

+ The first clue that the 1% falls are upon us should show up in the stock market, in the shares of UK Homebuilders. I have developed a “Property Crash Index” of Five UK Homebuilders, to help provide an early warning:

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=13797

 

+ The beauty of this new index is two-fold: It is Real-time (and can be compiled in a few minutes using up-to-the-second data), and it is totally transparent and objective (since anyone can compile it the same way, and we will all get the exact same answer for the same point in time.)

 

(Talking about the Downward Pressure index, another index tested with the BBI):

+ This index (DPI) has been at under 40% for most of 2004 and 2005. The only brief exception was end-October 2004, when it briefly shot up to 70%! But a possible crash scenario was averted by a sharp rise in Builder share prices in November/December, helped greatly I believe by a downwards shift in long term interest rates…

 

(Note: The BBI index made another dip in Aug-Oct.2005, and then showed a sharp recovery in Nov.2005.)

 

@: http://neverhappy.com/about-neverhappy/#comment-33

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(from an HPC thread, entitled):

"Is The Uk Really 12 Months Behind The Us?,

First bearish news of impending US disaster - summer 2006"

========

 

I think the UK is approximately 12 -18 months behind.

But the UK's peak and fall may have been speeded up (& it can be slowed down)

 

+ US Builders peaked in July 2005

+ UK Builders peaked in late 2006 (December?)

 

The UK top is being put in place NOW (july 2007??) imho, which is about 7 months after the Builders peaked.

(The US indices went negative about 10-12 months after the US builders peaked.)

The slide in the Builders, if it continues, would lend confirmation to this view, as would reports in the

August and September HPI indices, that negative growth as started.

 

@: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=51299

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Two KEY Uk Builders shares

 

Barratt Developments/ BDEV ... update : Daily-12 months

bigsi9.gif

 

 

Taylor Wimpey/ TW* ... update : Daily-12 months

bigrs1.gif

 

COMPARE:

US Builder, Hovnanian / HOV ... update

bigxa0.gif

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(LET'S LOOK BACK at this posting at end 2008, and see how the mainstream forecasters have done):

 

It’s official. The housing boom will end next year.

 

The Council of Mortgage Lenders has warned that house price growth will fall to between 2% and 3% in 2008. In real terms, given that inflation is more than 3% just now, that suggests prices will fall.

 

Of course, lenders and estate agents have learned to hit the panic button hard while the Bank of England is hiking interest rates. The hope is that they can somehow scare the Monetary Policy Committee into veering off course.

 

But somehow, we don’t think their influence is as great as they wish it was…

 

The Council of Mortgage Lenders has cut its forecast for 5% house price growth in 2008, to 2%-3%. The move comes in reaction to higher-than-expected interest rates.

 

Director-general Michael Coogan said: “I don’t believe there will be a crash, but clearly a slowdown is more likely in an environment of higher interest rates.”

 

...more: http://forum.globalhousepricecrash.com/ind...showtopic=20674

 

- -

The BBI Index is forecasting a slide, and much earlier than that.

Let's see which is more useful

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Wow, that Hovnian chart looks like a junior miner who has just posted some disappointing drill results. it's that bad.

 

Those chats tell amazing stories.

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By Stuart J Watson

One of my (many) bugbears is house price indices. Or, to be more precise, my issue is the media's obsession with every tiny movement that they have.

 

There are several surveys to choose from these days. Oh for the good old days when we only had to worry about Nationwide and Halifax numbers. Recent years have seen new measures launched by Hometrack, Rightmove (LSE: RMV.L - news) , Financial Times and even the government. To add to the confusion, some surveys are purely on averages of others, rather than analysing their own unique data.

. .

The problem lies in trying to discern anything meaningful from such a small data set. There are around 150,000 residential property sales a month in the UK at the moment. So each month's data represents about 0.5% of our total housing stock of 25 million and most surveys only look at a fraction of sales each month.

 

...more: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=51470

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Wow, that Hovnian chart looks like a junior miner who has just posted some disappointing drill results. it's that bad.

Those chats tell amazing stories.

 

HUGE destruction of value ($71 to under $17: a fall of over -75% !) occurring so far since July 2005- in two years.

Most of the other US builders have similar falls, and the US HPI indices lagged by almost 12 months,

and are now down (only) 8-10%, which is the most since the great depression of the 1930's

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CONFIDENCE IS FADING, amongst property investors in the stock market

 

Investors switch from UK to international property

Telegraph: New Star recovers from UK fund sell-off

"But earlier this month New Star, and fellow fund manager Norwich Union, reacted to rising redemptions by reducing the price at which units can be encashed - wiping nearly £300m off the value of two of Britain's biggest property funds in the process and sparking a wave of panic buying. Both companies insisted there was no reason to panic at the sudden reversal in the fortunes of their funds. Returns from UK property have been close to 20pc a year for 3 years. Neither fund manager would say how much money had flowed out of the funds." Landlords, lesson learned, head for the exit!

 

...more: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtm.../bcnstar120.xml

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GIVING UP the Mini-Boom gains (since late 2005)

 

aamb9.gif

 

One of my "three main builders", Taylor Wimpey (TW), has done just that.

The other two, Barratt and Persimmon, remain under pressure.

 

How long before UK property prices are back to 2005 prices, on their way lower?

The above chart, shows trends which could give up all those gains by late 2007,

and maybe early 2008 in the UK property market.

 

Keep monitoring the Builders!

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Homebuilders Plunge

 

In the U.S., shares of homebuilders plunged to the lowest in almost four years after D.R. Horton Inc. and Beazer Homes USA Inc. reported LOSSES.

A government report showed purchases of new homes in the U.S. dropped more than forecast in June.

 

D.R. Horton fell 1.8 percent to $17.16 after reporting its first quarterly loss in at least a decade. Beazer dropped 8.7 percent to $15.56.

 

-see: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

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Northern Rock had another nice down day (-6%). I recall talking with BP about shorting NR some weeks ago, but somehow never got around to it. Shame. This must be an indicator of falls in the UK housing market to come too. It topped in February this year and is now down 39%....impressive stuff in just 6 months.

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=====

Date: -TW-- 1.39xTW BDEV- PSN-- -BDVx1.92 -BBY- Tot.Idx/26.80 /FTSE x4477

Jl/29 360.75 501.44 993.0 1158.0 1906.56 443.00 5002.0 186.64 6608 126.45

jul13 334.75 465.30 969.5 1167.0 1861.44 453.00 4916.2 183.44 6717 122.27

jul20 333.25 463.22 963.5 1184.0 1849.92 468.25 4928.9 183.91 6585 125.04

jul27 293.75 408.31 904.5 1099.0 1736.64 421.25 4569.7 170.51 6215 122.83

 

In Two weeks, Total Index fell by by a huge -7.1% (4916.2 to 4567.7),

but the Adjusted Index rose slightly because FTSE fell more than this.

 

Looks like both markets are cooling fast.

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http://www.ifaonline.co.uk/public/showPage...PageName=459811

 

QUOTE

House prices will begin to fall in August as interest rates give homebuyers the upper hand in the negotiating process, according to Your Move.

 

The estate agent's "predictor", based on the Land Registry Index, claims that average house prices will peak at £182,748 in July and will fall to £182,134 by the end of August.

 

Your Move also predicts that month on month growth will fall to -0.34% and year on year growth will fall to 8.83%, down from 9.46% this month.

 

Your Move also states that the percentage of asking price to agreed prices is expected to ease, from 92.7% in July, to 19.1% in August, giving buyers an advantage when negotiating a purchase.

 

The estate agent’s actual agreed prices, which are typically reached 11 weeks before exchange, fell by 0.47% on average in July.

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(from a 2006 article on the connection between US builders and US real estate prices):

 

That's what happened in the first quarter of 2006, which was not so kind to the homebuilders group. Financial results showed a negative trend, Mack says. "New home demand is weakening, due to interest rates seen going higher and diminished affordability," he says. "For virtually every public builder, new home orders declined in the March quarter."

 

Homebuiders have responded to this operational dilemma in different ways. Some have increased incentives on homes, expanded advertising campaigns, and are using more outside brokers. Others have allowed option contracts for land purchases to expire and are writing down the value of certain assets, mainly land. Community openings have also been delayed.

 

"Financial responses include increased share repurchases and the repayment of relatively high-yielding debt," according to Mack. "If demand remains weak, there is a possibility that community counts will flatten."

 

PRICE DECLINES. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, March housing starts declined 7.8% from February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.96 million. But the March numbers increased 6.9% from March, 2005. S&P expects housing starts of 1.92 million this year and 1.75 million in 2007, compared with 2.07 million in 2005.

 

Homebuilding stocks have dropped 11.6% on average this year (through May 5), according to S&P. The recent weakness caused Mack to upgrade a few names on May 12. He raised Beazer Homes (BZH) and Ryland Group (RYL) to hold from sell, and NVR (NVR) to sell from strong sell. However, he did not change his price targets and earnings forecasts, which were recently lowered. "Sharp recent declines in the price of the shares offset some of our concern about demand for homes, which we think will continue to weaken overall," Mack says of all three stocks

 

...more: http://www.businessweek.com/investor/conte...0515_956930.htm

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(EWI has some interesting comments on the US Builders, and sentiment):

 

EXCERPTS:

1/

Years ago, analyst Paul M. Montgomery (www.montgomerycap.com) developed a market indicator based on

popular magazine covers. The theory behind such a seemingly esoteric signal is quite logical: by the time a

financial trend has been in force so long or is so intense that it makes it through the publics consciousness to

the cover of a popular news weekly, that trend is often near exhaustion and ready to reverse. Signals work

approximately 80% of the time and some leeway is allowed between the time the cover appears and the

actually price reversal, usually a month or two (although many trend changes do in fact occur close to the

publication of the magazine cover).

 

TIME Magazine : "Home $weet Home" (peak- June 2005)

Business Week : "Bonfire of the Builders" (low?)

 

2/

By the time the summer of 2005 rolled around, housing was on fire. Real estate prices were skyrocketing and

people were “flipping” condo’s and houses for pure financial gain versus using them as shelter. Housing stocks

likewise were in a strong bull market, rising over 900% from a March 2000 low, the same month the S&P 500

topped prior to the start of the great bear market. By mid-June, the speculation was so intense that Time

magazine ran a cover titled, “Home $weet Home,” as seen on the above chart. According to Montgomery’s

indicator, housing stocks should have been near a high. The S&P Supercomposite Homebuilding Index topped

several weeks later and has since declined 62%. Our bearish forecast was published in the September 2005

issue of EWFF in which we discussed the exponential rise in housing stocks and the strong potential for a

steep decline. Note the five-wave form of the selloff from July 2005 to the present. This week’s Business Week

cover is titled, “Bonfire of the Builders,” and the accompanying article talks at length of the current housing

woes. Accordingly, the magazine cover indicator suggests that downtrend of the past two years is near a point

of exhaustion and that housing stocks should be fast approaching a rally.

 

From an Elliott wave standpoint, the structure of the decline would look best with a bounce and then one more

new low so that wave 5 subdivides into the requisite five-wave form. But with such a steep decline in a

relatively short span we are not completely certain the index will deliver the up-down sequence we desire. Our

view is that any rally that does develop will ultimately prove to be countertrend, taking the form of an “ABC” or

some variation thereof. In other words, we do not think that the U.S. housing affliction is over, even if the price

of housing stocks do bounce. And of course there is always the possibility that the cover indicator does not

“work” this time and housing stocks continue to plummet. From an empirical standpoint however, we’ve seen it

mark a trend reversal too many times in various markets and stocks not to take it’s message seriously.

 

3/

The main reason we think the housing sector will remain under long-term pressure is that our work indicates

were are still in the early stages of a credit contraction, which is the main lubricant for housing. Although not

part of our forecast, another magazine cover this week that, in our estimation, supports this stance is seen

above. Observe how the Economist decides to spin their story: a credit crunch is actually a good thing! The

subtitle says, “Tighter credit conditions are just what the markets need.” We would suggest an alternate view,

one we’ve discussed at length in nearly every issue of EWFF this year. Our August issue, which we published

today, starts with a Special Section titled, “The Credit Bubble Bursts.” It speaks for itself.

 

(August issue: 7.Aug.2007)

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The NRK news virtually GUARANTEES that lenders will begin to tighten their

mortgage lending in the UK. So naturally, the Builders have been hit too:

See change from Sep13 (yesterday) to Sep14 (today):

 

== SHARE PRICE TABLE +++ (skip to comments, if you like) +++

 

Date: -TW-- 1.39xTW BDEV- PSN-- -BDVx1.92 -BBY- Tot.Idx/26.80 /FTSE x4477

Jul29 360.75 501.44 993.0 1158.0 1906.56 443.00 5002.0 186.64 6608 126.45

aug31 347.25 482.68 928.5 1157.0 1782.72 473.50 4824.4 180.01 6303 127.86

sep07 332.00 461.48 884.0 1088.0 1697.28 451.00 4581.8 170.96 6191 123.62

sep13 331.75 461.13 870.5 1088.0 1671.36 476.25 4567.2 170.42 6364 119.89

sep14 324.75 451.40 859.5 1071.0 1650.24 467.65 4499.8 167.90 6324 118.86

 

==================

 

BBI (last column) is down 1.0% since yesterday, and 8.0% since end-August.

 

That suggests HUGE downwards pressure on property prices. The BBI is now

back to the levels of mid-October 2005, giving up all those 2006 gains.

When it cracks BBI-108, that will suggest the market wants to give up ALL

the gains since the 2005 pause.

 

Note:

That BBI-118.86 was calculated when BDEV was at 859.5p

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Here's Northern Rock (NRK) versus FTSE (UKX)

 

bigmc2.gif

 

Note that NRK is being rocked by massive, massive, and unprecedented selling

 

= =

 

Here's Barratt (BDEV) versus FTSE

 

bignl7.gif

 

Also being hit hard. Today: 819.5p -51p / that's - 5.86%!!

 

That's a huge drop, and is telling us that the Builders are telling us trouble is dead ahead for UK property

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UPDATED Calculations show:

Falls in the Builders ... suggest that the UK property market will give up the post 2005 gains within 6-12 months

 

= =

With another near 30% drop in NRK,

What's happening to the Builders today?:

 

BDEV: 800.0p - 29.5p / - 3.56%

TW- : 303.0p - 10.0p / - 3.19%

PSN : 978.5p - 37.5p / - 3.69%

BBY : 455.7p - 6.00p / - 1.30%

 

UKX : 6197.1 - 92.2p / - 1.47%

 

Date: -TW-- 1.39xTW BDEV- PSN-- -BDVx1.92 -BBY- Tot.Idx/26.80 /FTSE x4477

Jul29 360.75 501.44 993.0 1158.0 1906.56 443.00 5002.0 186.64 6608 126.45

aug31 347.25 482.68 928.5 1157.0 1782.72 473.50 4824.4 180.01 6303 127.86

 

sep14 324.75 451.40 859.5 1071.0 1650.24 467.65 4499.8 167.90 6324 118.86

sep17 303.00 421.17 800.0 978.50 1536.00 455.70 4191.4 156.39 6197 112.99

 

NOTE:

Back in August 2005, the adj.BBI was under 110 - so it is nearly back to those levels.

These falls in the Builders (if maintained) suggest that the UK property market will give up the post 2005 gains within 6-12 months. !!

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Back To the Future ?

==============

 

Date: -TW-- 1.39xTW BDEV- PSN-- -BDVx1.92 -BBY- Tot.Idx/26.80 /FTSE x4477

Jul.29 360.75 501.44 993.0 1158.0 1906.56 443.00 5002.0 186.64 6608 126.45

aug31 347.25 482.68 928.5 1157.0 1782.72 473.50 4824.4 180.01 6303 127.86

- -

sep21 287.75 400.00 786.0 933.00 1509.12 468.75 4096.9 152.87 6457 105.99

 

BACK TO 106 ! That's Back To the Future,

 

And the BBI now suggests a future of falling house prices.

We haven't seen that level since April 2005.

So if this drop in the Builders proves to be something different from a brief dip,

the entire 2005-6 rally in House Prices may be retraced before next summer.

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