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Brexit: Will it happen? What then?

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What Pisses Me Off About Brexit | UK's EU Referendum

 

UK is so far beyond saving its been beyond funny for a long time.

Common man is either oblivious and indifferent or literally stocking up on firearms.

 

To anyone that was taken by surprise by the 2011 riots, have to say I was surprised they weren't more violent.

 

Now there's thousands of new immigrants lining the street waiting to be hit by the stock of petrol bombs and ammo that's been also filling up the streets since I left.

 

No idea what or when the flash point will be next time. But I do know I'm glad I will be absolutely nowhere near when it inevitability arrives.

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wow.

 

http://www.nasdaq.com/article/exclusive-brexit-poll-results-the-case-for-brexit-vs-remain-cm621095

 

Overall

 

Mar 6

Brexit 58%

No Brexit 42%

 

May13

Brexit 85%

No Brexit 15%

 

Vs best odds

Stay: 1/3

Leave:5/2

 

85% chance of a 5/2 payout

15% chance of a 1/3 payout

 

Isn't that like totally worth betting on both???? Bit hung over, but my impression is that's as good as free money?

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How would you make money on that?

 

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/eu-referendum/referendum-on-eu-membership-result

 

best odds

1.41 to stay (70.92%)

3.4 to leave(29.41%)

 

overround = 0.33%, ie no chance for arbitrage

Because the poll puts a bet on both as

0.85 x 3.4 + 0.15 x 1.41 = 3.105

 

Because the odds are so far behind public opinion. (And yeah, the math definitely isn't correct, and I stand to be corrected, just still not sure what the correct answer is)

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STLtoday.com - ‎1 hour ago‎
FILE - In this Tuesday, March 22, 2016 file photo, Boris Johnson arrives for a meeting at Downing Street in London. Ex-London Mayor Boris Johnson has compared the European Union's aims to those of Adolf Hitler, arguing that the 28-nation bloc is ...
Boris Johnson barnstorming Brexit speech "We happy few"

 

"Once a lifetime chance to walk thru THAT door..."

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The Brexit Film

 

 

"People who the EU undemocratic dont understand it.

It is anti-democratic" - Nigel Farage

 

10,000 people working for the EU are paid more than David Cameron

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Will Cameron disappear if he loses on Brexit ?

 

He should certainly consider that

BBC News - ‎1 hour ago‎
US presidential hopeful Donald Trump has warned he may not have a "very good relationship" with David Cameron. He was responding to the prime minister who called Mr Trump "stupid, divisive and wrong" over his call for Muslims to be banned from the US ...

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Because the poll puts a bet on both as

0.85 x 3.4 + 0.15 x 1.41 = 3.105

 

Because the odds are so far behind public opinion. (And yeah, the math definitely isn't correct, and I stand to be corrected, just still not sure what the correct answer is)

 

But they are mutually exclusive outcomes!!

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But they are mutually exclusive outcomes!!

Yeah, it should be

 

0.5*0.85*3.4 + 0.5*0.15*1.41=1.551

or

0.85*3.4=2.89

 

But the point was, both betting on both, or betting on "the most likely from the latest poll", both have an expected outcome >1 (with the first being much lower risk)

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It's not gonna happen.

 

Despite the EU's shortcomings, I do not sense a great desire to leave from the common man...

 

They need to be convinced by:

 

+ The heavy cost Britain bears in covering the running costs of the EU, and

+ The fact that sovereignty has been surrender to arrogant bureaucrats who do not have "the common man's interests" in mind

 

The Spectator Debate: Should Britain leave the EU?

 

Farage and Hannon : what a treat

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The Risk of "staying on the bus"

Dan Hannan: what we need from Europe is free trade, not a common government

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Brexit fears may not be enough to sway US Federal Reserve Sydney Morning ...12:07AM

 

 

Jitters around Britain's vote on its European Union membership may not be enough to stop the US central bank lifting interest rates next month, according to a gathering chorus of commentators.

They also say the risk of Eurosceptics winning the June 23 referendum is fading.

In any case, market and political noise around the possibility of a so-called "Brexit" may not be enough to force the Federal Reserve to delay its follow-up to last December's 25-basis-point increase in its target rate. The Fed's Open Market Committee meets to decide its next policy move on June 14 and 15, a week before the EU vote.

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The Truth About Brexit | UK's EU Referendum

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TMR 145 : Dr. Paul Craig Roberts : Vote Brexit - End the EU, a CIA Covert Operation Published on Saturday, 28 May 2016 21:24

PaulCraigRoberts.jpg"Remain" or "Leave"? What does the UK's EU Referendum—scheduled 23rd June—really amount to? Is it simply the opportunity for UK citizens to decide if Britain should stay in the European Union? Or is it something of greater significance, with broader and more serious implications? And just what is this thing called the EU anyway?

Joining us, once again, to discuss these questions is Dr. Paul Craig Roberts, former US Assistant Secretary to the Treasury for Ecomonic Policy, who explains the EU's beginnings as a project of the CIA, and assesses its current role as as an anti-democratic tool of corporate control. Whether or not a majority "leave" vote will actually lead to Brexit, Dr. Roberts argues that a decisive rejection of EU membership by UK citizens could embolden other EU member states to follow suit, thus precipitating the break-up of NATO, and in turn, bringing an end to Washington's crazy designs for a New World Order.

 

MP3 : http://themindrenewed.com/mp3/TMR_145_DrPaulCraigRoberts_Brexit_EU_CIA_48kbps.mp3

 

> http://themindrenewed.com/interviews/2016/885-int109

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Why Brexit Must Happen | Paul Joseph Watson and Stefan Molyneux

 

Watson thinks that Cameron's recent performance INCREASES the chances of Brexit

 

EU referendum has revealed a deeply divided Britain
The Guardian-12 hours ago
... and Darling slam 'uncosted and unworkable' EU exit plans, 2 June).
... like David Cameron and George Osborne, deserves a good kicking.
The likely result today is that the Disraeli-equivalent, Boris Johnson, will go on to lead the rightwing of the party, while the centre group could well see the electoral benefits of joining with the right of the Labour party. Clearly the likes of Peter Mandelson, Tristram Hunt and Liz Kendall have as much in common with Cameron as they do with Corbyn. Owen Jones’s hopes for proportional representation are slim, requiring, as it would, Tories’ support, so, while his prediction of Labour splitting into “a centre-left and a left party” is probable, the end result could well be a new middle-ground party.
Anything that separates Labour
or Cameron's head from his body, is probably a good thing

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Nigel Farage on the future of immigration post Brexit

 

Published on Jun 3, 2016

(3RD JUN 2016) Subscribe for more Brexit and Nigel Farage content.

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New York Times

- ‎6 hours ago‎











LONDON - As Britain prepares to vote on June 23 on whether to remain in the European Union, skepticism about the bloc is on the rise across Europe, with about two-thirds of Britons wanting some powers returned to their national government, according ...

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38degrees_logo_email.png

 

The cheating begins !!!!

 

Dear Ian,

BREAKING: last night tens of thousands of people were blocked from registering to vote in the EU referendum - because the government website crashed. [1]

The deadline has passed, but the government could allow an emergency extension if there’s enough of an outcry. [2] If enough of us pile in now onto a huge petition, we can force the government to let people who missed out register to vote.

Ian, can you add your name to the emergency petition now?

 

 

It’s hard to tell exactly how many people missed out on their chance to vote. It’s been reported that at it’s peak, over 10,000 people a minute were trying - and failing - to register on the website. [3] That number of people missing out could decide the result of the referendum.

Staying or leaving the EU is a huge decision for all of our futures - and it’s not fair that tens of thousands of people won’t get a vote because of a technical fault. Our democracy is better than this.

If you agree that everyone who missed out on registering to vote should get a 24 hour extension, sign the emergency petition now. To make sure the government sees the petition urgently, 38 Degrees members will deliver it by 6pm today:

 

 

Thanks for being involved,

Bex, Amy, Rachel, Laura, Lorna and the 38 Degrees team


NOTES:
[1] BBC news: EU referendum: Plea to extend EU vote register deadline:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36476176
This week 38 Degrees members have been making sure that no one misses their chance to vote, by sharing registration eminders with thousands of our friends, colleagues and neighbours:
https://home.38degrees.org.uk/2016/06/07/register-vote-eu-referendum/
[2] The Guardian: EU referendum voter registration site crashes before deadline:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/07/eu-referendum-voter-registration-site-crashes-before-deadline
[3] Voter registration website: live service usage:
https://www.gov.uk/performance/register-to-vote/live-service-usage

 

38 Degrees is funded by donations from thousands of members across the UK. Making a regular donation will mean 38 Degrees can stay independent and plan for future campaigns. Please will you chip in a few pounds a week?

Start a direct debit

large%20shop%20promo%20banner-min.jpg

Unsubscribe: If you no longer wish to be part of our movement and receive our emails you can unsubscribe here.

This email was sent to iankiley@btinternet.com.p>

38 DEGREES
Limited by guarantee
Registered Company No. 6642193 in England and Wales
Registered office: 40 Bowling Green Lane, London, EC1R 0NE

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People Power

 

Dear Ian,

UPDATE: In the space of a few hours, 38 Degrees members have had a huge impact on democracy. Together, we created a wave of pressure to force the government to extend the deadline to register to vote - after their website crashed last night. [1]

Now we urgently need to tell our friends and family everyone’s got until 11.59pm on Thursday to register to vote:

 

SIGN THE EMERGENCY PETITIONREMIND MY FRIENDS TO REGISTER TO VOTE

Or forward this email onto your friends and family. Here’s the link to register to vote:
https://secure.38degrees.org.uk/register-to-vote-extended


Thanks for being involved,

Bex, Amy, Rachel, Laura, Lorna and the 38 Degrees team


NOTES:
[1] The Telegraph: EU referendum: Government to extend voter registration deadline by 48 hours as David Cameron urges would-be voters to sign up:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/08/eu-referendum-live-voter-registration-david-cameron-nigel-farage
[2] EU referendum: Plea to extend EU vote register deadline:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36476176
[3] 38 Degrees petition: Extend the voter registration deadline:
https://speakout.38degrees.org.uk/campaigns/emergency-extend-voter-reg-deadline
[4] Screenshot from The Guardian’s live blog today:

Pasted%20image%20at%202016_06_08%2001_18

Screenshot from The Telegraph’s live blog today:

Screen%20Shot%202016-06-08%20at%2012.21.

Daily Mail: Voters will have until TOMORROW NIGHT to register for the EU referendum after ministers bow to fury over website crash hours before deadline:
/http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3630320/Voter-registration-website-CRASHES-just-two-hours-referendum-deadline-prompting-claims-extended.html

Here’s the email from earlier today:


-----------


Dear Ian,

BREAKING: last night tens of thousands of people were blocked from registering to vote in the EU referendum - because the government website crashed. [1]

The deadline has passed, but the government could allow an emergency extension if there’s enough of an outcry. [2] If enough of us pile in now onto a huge petition, we can force the government to let people who missed out register to vote.

 

Ian, can you add your name to the emergency petition now?

SIGN THE EMERGENCY PETITION

 

 

 

 

Or forward this email onto your friends and family. Here’s the link to register to vote:
https://secure.38degrees.org.uk/register-to-vote-extended

Today we’ve proven the power we have when tens of thousands of us come together to stand up for our right to vote. 38 Degrees members won’t all be voting the same way in the EU referendum, but if there’s one thing we all agree on it’s that everyone deserves to have their say.

Here’s what’s happened today:

8am: The media reports that the government’s website crashed - meaning tens of thousands of people couldn’t register to vote for the EU referendum. [2]

10am: 15 people a second are signing the emergency petition to Matt Hancock - the minister in charge of voter registration - demanding that the deadline to register is extended. The petition reaches 80,000 signatures from 38 Degrees members in a few hours. And thousands of us tweet Matt Hancock directly. [3]

1pm: The Telegraph, Guardian and Daily Mail reported on 38 Degrees’ emergency petition as proof of public outcry on the fiasco - adding further pressure on the government to act. [4]

3pm: Matt Hancock announces that the government’s extending the deadline.

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Hahahahahaaaaaa

 

George Osborne admits he would probably accidently destroy the UK economy if he didn't have the EU to tell him how to manage its finances.

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CkvTzNcWkAA74WI.jpg

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Hahahahahaaaaaa

 

George Osborne admits he would probably accidently destroy the UK economy if he didn't have the EU to tell him how to manage its finances.

 

Just how difficult is it to run an economy, using a bit of common sense we have,

 

Interest rates - technically not his call

Inflation target

Taxes - downsize Government control and reduce taxes year on year

Regulations & laws - reduce these year on year

 

Surround yourself with whitehat humans

Round up the Elites and throw away the key

Wars & terror - stop believing MSM and save billions

Create State bank that only spends what we have at zero interest

End the siphoning of cash to the bankers

Life essentials such as water and power should be not for profit

Heath care and treatments - tell the truth and stop the scams

Full disclosure & restructuring of Government, release of zero-point energy and anti-gravity technology

 

 

No doubt the Elites and their minions can bombard the treasury with any amount of bullshit problems designed to blind and distract them if they don't play ball

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I read this morning the “Leavers” are now dominating the “Remain-ey-ings” by a 19 point Brexit poll.

The following is an attempt to present both sides. Whether true or not, the thought of pension impact should get some votes to remain.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/11/brexit-axe-state-pensions-david-cameron-nhs-cold-reality

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After two polls early on Monday, putting Leave ahead by between 1% (The Sunday Times) and 10% (The Independent), Betfair's odds on the chances of a vote to remain have now fallen to 68.5%, down from nearly 80% last week.

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