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US House Price Data : Philadelphia, NYC & Other Cities

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Philly’s housing inventory dipped to all-time low (again) at end of 2017

Fourth quarter numbers show that Philly’s real estate market experienced both a tight inventory and a fall in house prices. Is relief on the way?

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Home Prices Hit Records...

Home prices jumped to all-time highs in almost two-thirds of U.S. cities in the fourth quarter as buyers battled for a record-low supply of listings.

Prices for single-family homes, which climbed 5.3 percent from a year earlier nationally, reached a peak in 64 percent of metropolitan areas measured, the National Association of Realtors said Tuesday. Of the 177 regions in the group’s survey, 15 percent had double-digit price growth, up from 11 percent in the third quarter.

Home values have grown steadily as the improving job market drives demand for a scarcity of properties on the market. While prices jumped 48 percent since 2011, incomes have climbed only 15 percent, putting purchases out of reach for many would-be buyers.

The consistent price gains “have certainly been great news for homeowners, and especially for those who were at one time in a negative equity situation,” Lawrence Yun, the Realtors group’s chief economist, said in a statement. “However, the shortage of new homes being built over the past decade is really burdening local markets and making homebuying less affordable.”

Sales of previously owned homes, including single-family houses and condos, increased 4.3 percent to a seasonally adjusted rate of 5.62 million in the fourth quarter, the Realtors said. At the end of December, only 1.48 million existing homes were available for sale, 10.3 percent less than a year earlier.

The most expensive markets were San Jose, California, where the median price was $1.27 million, followed by San Francisco, the Irvine, California, area, Honolulu and San Diego.

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What will Spiking Mortgage Rates, High Home Prices,

& the New Tax Law Do to the Housing Market?

Surging home prices have primed the housing market for this.

This chart (via Trading Economics) shows the recent spike in mortgage rates, as reported by the MBA. There are two spikes actually: The spike off near-historic lows in the summer of 2016 (the absolute low was in late 2012) when the Fed stopped flip-flopping about rate hikes; and the spike when the subsequent rate hikes started belatedly driving up the 10-year Treasury yield late last year. It’s the 10-year yield that impacts mortgage rates. Note that, except for the brief mini-peak in 2013, the average mortgage rate would be the highest since April 2011:

US-mortgage-rates-MBA-2018-Feb-21.png

The average interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages backed by the FHAwith 20% down rose to 4.58%, the highest since April 2011, according to the MBA. And the average interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages with 20% down rose to 4.02%, also the highest since April 2011

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OMINOUS: Rising mortgage rates hit home sales hard...

  • Homebuyers increasingly can't afford what they want.
  • Higher mortgage rates, combined with the loss of homeowner tax breaks in some of the nation's most expensive markets, are taking away buying power.

"New home sales down 7.8% in January"

Sales of newly built homes are falling, and the culprit is clear. Homebuyers increasingly can't afford what they want. Higher mortgage rates, combined with the loss of homeowner tax breaks in some of the nation's most expensive markets, are taking away buying power.

Sales fell in December, when the new tax law was signed, and then again in January, when mortgage rates moved higher. Sales are now at their lowest level since August of last year.

The government's measure of new home sales is based on signed contracts during the month, reflecting the people who are out shopping and signing deals with builders. It is therefore a strong read on current reactions to home affordability. Mortgage rates moved a full quarter of a percentage point higher during January, from below 4 percent to about 4.25 percent. It then took off further from there.

/ 2 /

Home-builder ETFs fall after pending-home sales data MarketWatch

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Starter Homes Scarcer, Pricier, Smaller and More Run-Down...

Homebuyers in the U.S. have plenty to grouse about these days. Prices have climbed steeply in many metro areas, mortgage rates are rising and inventory is thin. But for people looking to purchase their first home, it’s ugly out there.

“Starter homes have become scarcer, pricier, smaller, older and more likely in need of some TLC” than they were six years ago, the real estate website Trulia reported Wednesday after analyzing housing stock across the country. Trulia began tracking prices and inventory in 2012.

Oh, Give Me a Home ...

The supply of U.S. homes is up 3.3%, driven by a 13.3% jump in the premium category, while starter-home inventory has hit its lowest level since Trulia started keeping track in 2012

It’s grim all over. American homes are at their least affordable in the report’s history. But the median listing price of available starter homes has risen 9.6 percent in the past year, easily beating out the trade-up and premium categories, while starter-home supply has fallen to a new low this quarter, Trulia reported.

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Teachers can’t afford Miami rents. The county has a plan: Let them live at school.

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th?id=OIP.GsvfIqCpHaTrSpw9E57UPQHaE7&w=3
BOOM: San Fran Median House Price Hits Record $1.6M...

Homebuyers in the red-hot San Francisco real estate market appear to be unfazed by stock-market volatility and tax-law changes.

The median sale price of a house in the city soared to $1.6 million in the first quarter, an almost 24 percent jump from a year earlier, according to a new report from Paragon Real Estate Group. That topped the previous high in the final three months of last year by $100,000.

Quarter-to-quarter fluctuations in median home prices are often not too meaningful, the real estate brokerage said in its report. But prices in the city have been soaring for several years, as “feverish” demand far outstrips supply.

“Fear of possible impending interest rate increases may be playing a role in demand, but consumer confidence has also been soaring over the past year,” Patrick Carlisle, chief marketing officer at Paragon, wrote in the report. “Recent financial market volatility, so far, appears to be having little effect on local real estate markets, but it still early to measure this.”

One silver lining for people out shopping now: The gain in condo prices has moderated as new units come on to the market. The median condo price increased by a relatively modest 4.6 percent from a year earlier, to $1.18 million.

===

California is still the least affordable state

800x-1.png

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-21/u-s-starter-homes-are-pricier-smaller-older-and-scarcer

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Home Prices In 80% Of US Cities Grew 2x Faster Than Wages...

And Then There Is San Francisco

2018-04-24_6-04-56.jpg?itok=um_MRoHm

Mind the Gap - SF House prices are now way ahead of Condo prices

paragon1.jpg?itok=QfkXuO3i

HOUSEHOLD-INCOME-MUST-INCREASE_0.png

> https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-04-24/home-prices-80-us-cities-grew-2x-faster-wages-and-then-there-san-francisco

 

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People are leaving Democratic cities and states, because of high taxes and crime.

The Great Exodus From America's 'Blue' Cities Accelerates

"It's going to force the Blue States to reduce taxes"

Profile picture for user Tyler Durden

Am I the only one in my spinning class at Equinox in Manhattan who’s fed up paying $200 every month for a gym with clean showers, $3,000 in rent every month for an apartment without cockroaches and $8 every morning for a cup of coffee? Am I the only one moving through the greater part of New York City boroughs and seeing an inexorable march of urban decay matched with the discomfort of crowding and inexplicable costs? I know I am not.

New York is the most expensive city in America. Its lower-cost neighborhoods are riddled with crime and homelessness. Its public schools, some of which are among the worst in the nation, look more like prisons than places of learning. With between up to 50 percent of their paycheck going to a combination of federal, local and city taxes.... Eventually, city and state taxes, fees, and regulations become so burdensome that people and corporations jump ship. More people are currently fleeing New York than any other metropolitan area in the nation. More than 1 million people have moved out of New York City since 2010.

. . .The recently passed tax bill, which repeals the state and local tax (SALT) deduction, will only speed up the exodus. Thanks to the bill’s passage, many New York taxpayers will save little or nothing despite a cut in the federal rate. The state’s highest earners — who have been footing an outsized share of the bill — will pay tens of thousands of dollars more in income taxes in 2018. In New York alone, loss of the SALT deduction will remove $72 billion a year in tax deductions and affect 3.4 million residents.  

And make no mistake: What’s happening in the Big Apple is a microcosm of what’s happening in the nation’s blue states, cities and towns.

New York, Los Angeles, Chicago — the places where power and capital have traditionally congregated — have become so over-regulated, so overpriced and mismanaged, and so morally bankrupt and soft on crime that people are leaving in droves. Of course, these high-tax cities are the same places hit hardest by the removal of the SALT deduction.

These facts are not coincidences. In fact, in 2016 the Golden State lost almost 143,000 net residents to other states — that figure is an 11 percent increase from 2015. Between 2005 and 2015, Los Angeles and San Francisco alone lost 250,000 residents. The largest socioeconomic segment moving from California is the upper-middle class. The state is home to some of the most burdensome taxes and regulations in the nation. Meanwhile, its social engineering — from green energy to wealth redistribution — have made many working families poorer. As California begins its long decline, the influx outward is picking up in earnest.

> https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-04-25/great-exodus-americas-blue-cities-accelerates?utm_medium=referral&utm_source=idealmedia&utm_campaign=zerohedge.com&utm_term=68762&utm_content=2226822

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Housing : Is the Mid-Cycle Correction underway?

Classic 18 year = 13-15 years Up + 3-5 years down

"Mid-way in the 14-years up", there is normally a brief (1-year?) mid-cycle correction

PHM Corp- the "bellwether" ... update / often leads Housing market by 6-12 months

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18-year Housing Cycle might show rises out to 2023, or so

PgocgDA.gif

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Own Gold, when Housing stocks are weak?

dzz/2x gold bear - vs. phm... update

qfgYYWJ.gif

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HOME prices & RATES rising fast

Median home values across the nation rose 8.7 percent over the past year to $215,600, according to the April Zillow Real Estate Market Report

- Home values across the U.S. are rising at their fastest pace since June 2006.

- The median U.S. home value is $215,600, up 8.7 percent over the past year.

- Home values are rising the fastest in San Jose, Calif., Las Vegas and Seattle. San Jose home values appreciated 26 percent since last April.

- Median U.S. rent rose 2.5 percent over the past year to $1,449. California markets Sacramento and Riverside reported the greatest increases in median rent.

> https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/home-values-rise-at-fastest-pace-in-12-years-300654067.html

Here's PHM Corp - a big US homebuilder ... update :

rh8Xn4R.gif

What Will Surging Mortgage Rates Do to Housing Bubble 2?

Mortgage rates continued their upward march this week, extending the most prolonged increase in rates in 46 years.

According to the latest data released Thursday by Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed-rate average climbed to 4.66 percent with an average 0.4 point. (Points are fees paid to a lender equal to 1 percent of the loan amount.) It was 4.61 percent a week ago and 3.95 percent a year ago.

The 15-year fixed-rate average jumped to 4.15 percent with an average 0.4 point. It was 4.08 percent a week ago and 3.19 percent a year ago. The five-year adjustable rate average rose to 3.87 percent with an average 0.3 point. It was 3.82 percent a week ago and 3.07 percent a year ago.

"Mortgage rates so far in 2018 have had the most sustained increase to start the year in over 40 years," Sam Khater, Freddie Mac's chief economist, said in a statement. "Through May, rates have risen in 15 out of the first 21 weeks (71 percent), which is the highest share since Freddie Mac began tracking this data for a full year in 1972."

. . . After touching a seven-year high, mortgage rates expectedly went down a tad last week," Shekhar said. "However, there is no reason for that downward trend to continue to anything significant. The Fed is still expected to raise the rate again in June with odds currently split between the probabilities for three or four increases for the year as a whole

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Golly, who would want to live there (unless they had a very high-paying job) ?

A six-figure salary is considered 'low income' in San Francisco, and the threshold is rising

To be considered "low income" in San Francisco, San Mateo and Marin counties, a family of four must earn $117,400 a year. "Very low income" is considered $73,300.

The Bay Area figures are the highest in the country and continue to increase year over year. Income limits in some Bay Area cities increased by 10 percent just in the last year.

Most residents will roll their eyes at such figures — they're used to seeing the cost of rent and home ownership increase with the years. In May, the median home price in the Bay Area hit a record high at $935,000.

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Southern California home sales crash, warning sign to nation...

Chinese Investors Retreat...

  • Sales of both new and existing houses and condominiums dropped 11.8 percent year over year, as prices shot up to a record high, according to CoreLogic.
  • The median price paid for all Southern California homes sold in June was a record $536,250, according to CoreLogic, a 7.3 percent increase compared to June of 2017.
  • In the past, California, one of the largest housing markets in the nation, has been a predictor for the rest of the country.

Southern California home sales hit the brakes in June, falling to the lowest reading for the month in four years. Sales of both new and existing houses and condominiums dropped 11.8 percent year over year, as prices shot up to a record high, according to CoreLogic. The report covers Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties.

Sales fell 1.1 percent compared with May, but the average change from May to June, going back to 1988, is a 6 percent gain.

The weakness was especially apparent in sales of newly built homes, which were 47 percent below the June average. Part of that is that builders are putting up fewer homes, so there is simply less to sell.

. . .

Chinese investors become net sellers of U.S. commercial property for the first time in a decade

Chinese real-estate investors, facing pressure from Beijing, are reversing a yearslong buying spree in the U.S. where they often paid record prices for marquee properties like New York’s Waldorf Astoria hotel.

Chinese insurers, conglomerates, and other i...

 

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The Cresting Wave: "Housing Tipping Back to a Buyer's Market"

... Just Like 2008: FBI Investigating Multi-Billion-Dollar Mortgage Fraud Case

 
  • Approximately 14 percent of all listings in June had undergone a price cut, that’s up from a recent low of 11.7 percent at the end of 2016, according to a new report from Zillow.
  • Home price growth is slowing in nearly half of the 35 largest U.S. metropolitan markets.
  • In San Diego, 20 percent of all listings had a price cut in June, up from 12 percent a year ago.

( a trend change maybe.  but these numbers are not a big deal.)

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Bank Of America Prediction: “The Peak In Home Sales Has Been Reached; Housing No Longer A Tailwind”

e's extremely pessimistic on home prices in most major markets worldwide:

We're going to see a collapse. The housing bubble is in the process of popping right now. 

Everybody’s been behaving like speculators. Housing prices have been just like day trading stocks. What’s happening right now is a lot more suggestive of a bubble bursting much more than it does just a correction or a down cycle. 

I can’t think of a market in the United States I would buy in right now.

There’s plenty of people like me who have a memory of how this is going to play out (from the 2007 housing bubble burst), and they’re actually probably all lining up the same way.

If you're looking to purchase housing at better values once this current bubble bursts, you don’t want to buy from Joe Six-Pack. You want to buy from a bank or a lender, that will frequently be Fannie May and Freddie Mac. For instance, in 2010, I helped somebody buy a house for $12,000 through an online auction. That house had been refinanced four years before for over $100,000. That same day, we could’ve bought three more for the same $10,000-$12,000 price. That’s the kind of discount you want to see and it's the lenders who are going to be the ones that give you those big discounts. Wait until the distressed sales. You don’t want to be buying retail in real estate.

Sheriff sales, trustee sales -- they have to go through this process where they offer the property to anybody who can buy it, including the current owner. They’ll put a print price on it that’s usually what’s owed on the property. When you see them selling it for less than what’s owed, that’s when there’s blood on the streets. Wait until a foreclosure has been sitting on the market for about 6 months, after they've whacked it down eight or nine times. Then make a lowball offer.

You have to realize is that the guys that are selling these are hired professional. Their job is to get rid of the houses -- they’ve got so much to spend on them and so much that they're allowed to lose.

That’s where we’re headed again. I would be very patient right now about catching a falling knife in the current market. Wait for the coming distressed discounts.

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Ben Jones: ‘The Housing Bubble is in the Process of Popping Right Now’

e's extremely pessimistic on home prices in most major markets worldwide:

We're going to see a collapse. The housing bubble is in the process of popping right now. 

Everybody’s been behaving like speculators. Housing prices have been just like day trading stocks. What’s happening right now is a lot more suggestive of a bubble bursting much more than it does just a correction or a down cycle. 

I can’t think of a market in the United States I would buy in right now.

There’s plenty of people like me who have a memory of how this is going to play out (from the 2007 housing bubble burst), and they’re actually probably all lining up the same way.

If you're looking to purchase housing at better values once this current bubble bursts, you don’t want to buy from Joe Six-Pack. You want to buy from a bank or a lender, that will frequently be Fannie May and Freddie Mac. For instance, in 2010, I helped somebody buy a house for $12,000 through an online auction. That house had been refinanced four years before for over $100,000. That same day, we could’ve bought three more for the same $10,000-$12,000 price. That’s the kind of discount you want to see and it's the lenders who are going to be the ones that give you those big discounts. Wait until the distressed sales. You don’t want to be buying retail in real estate.

Sheriff sales, trustee sales -- they have to go through this process where they offer the property to anybody who can buy it, including the current owner. They’ll put a print price on it that’s usually what’s owed on the property. When you see them selling it for less than what’s owed, that’s when there’s blood on the streets. Wait until a foreclosure has been sitting on the market for about 6 months, after they've whacked it down eight or nine times. Then make a lowball offer.

You have to realize is that the guys that are selling these are hired professional. Their job is to get rid of the houses -- they’ve got so much to spend on them and so much that they're allowed to lose.

That’s where we’re headed again. I would be very patient right now about catching a falling knife in the current market. Wait for the coming distressed discounts.

 

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ECB / Euro Chocolate Buyer posted

"The entire developed world is now actively "taxing to death" Chinese flight capital.

Australia is the latest. Peter from the Property Club has several videos about the dramatic tax increases occurring in AUS/QsLand.

For non resident owners 3pct of the value of the homes will be taxed. This is the highest in the world. This will cause a fall in prices..."

> here Bubble Debate (in PH)

To which I responded:

TAXES are one of the two ultimate Certainties in Life

And not only are they being raised in Oz,  Also in NYC, thanks to Trump's tax reforms

One year in, tax law faces test with filing season...

Exodus of NYC's endangered middle class...

New York City’s shrinking middle class is now in full retreat, as masses of our most endangered population depart the city in numbers not seen since the Depression, according to analysts.

After decades of sharp income erosion in the face of relentless taxes, escalating living costs and wage reductions through technological changes, the full extent of this shocking exodus is laid bare in the latest US Census data.

That shows the city is losing 100 residents each day — with departures exceeding new arrivals.

“The rich in New York City are getting richer; the poor are actually getting richer, but not rich enough to be middle class,” said Peter C. Earle, an economist at the American Institute for Economic Research, who has studied other data, noting the expansion in welfare and entitlement programs.

Earle said it isn’t unreasonable to assume middle-class incomes are falling even faster in New York City than in other major US cities, because of the city’s high — and rising — housing and other living costs. New York City’s middle class comprises 48 percent of city residents, with median annual incomes between $30,000 and $60,000.

The persistent shrinking of the middle class nationwide — and especially in cities like New York — is evident in boarded-up retail stores, reflecting rising rents and slackening consumer demand. National chain-store locations have plunged in the city by 0.3 percent, to 7,849, this year, according to the Center for an Urban Future. And a record 18 chains, including Aerosoles and Nine West, vacated all their city sites in 2018.

Where are they moving to?

Philadelphia could be one place. Could be 1 - 1 1/2 hours away by train or car.

Prices still seem to be rising there.

The biggest place the Middle Class is losing is on the deductibility of Mortgage interest rates. So selling an expensive NYC home, and buying a cheaper one elsewhere, to eliminate some or all of the debt may be a very smart move.

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Here comes the inventory:  Southern California unsold housing inventory now at 6-year high.  Housing starting to plateau.

 

It was only a matter of time before inventory started hitting the market and unsold homes started to pile up.  Not that home sales ever saw big volume increases but given the low inventory, any normal amount of homes sales pushed home values into the stratosphere.  So here we are with unsold housing inventory now hitting 6-year highs.  The problem of course is affordability causing a decade long shift for households into renting.  The Southern California News Group came out with 36,923 listings in the four-county region which amounted to a 22 percent year-over-year increase.  Housing markets are slow to shift and this bull market is getting close to celebrating a decade of moving up.  The troubling sign is that real estate is now in a boom and bust cycle and with rates still near historical lows, there is little ammunition from the Fed should things go south.

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Housing Crisis 2.0: Just Around the Block? | Elliott Wave International

Everyone remembers that housing prices were crushed during and even after the 2007-2009 financial crsis.

Are we headed toward a repeat?

Most Overvalued cities?

DyFR0SpX4Acu05L.jpg

> https://www.investmentwatchblog.com/most-over-valued-real-estate-by-metro-region/

 

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There’s still a lot of catch-up from the most distressed cities going on: Vegas saw 12% annual price growth

In November, the metro areas with the biggest year-on-year gains were Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Seattle. But many of the biggest losers on a monthly basis were the cities where prices had surged: Denver, San Francisco, and, yes, Seattle.

Metro area Monthly change 12-Month change
Atlanta 0.3% 6.2%
Boston 0.1% 5.6%
Charlotte 0.2% 5.5%
Chicago -0.7% 3.1%
Cleveland -0.7% 4.6%
Dallas 0.2% 4.0%
Denver -0.3% 6.2%
Detroit -0.4% 5.7%
Las Vegas 0.0% 12.0%
Los Angeles -0.3% 4.4%
Miami 0.3% 5.0%
Minneapolis -0.2% 5.8%
New York 0.4% 3.5%
Phoenix 0.3% 8.1%
Portland -0.5% 4.4%
San Diego -0.6% 3.3%
San Francisco -0.7% 5.6%
Seattle -0.7% 6.3%
Tampa 0.4% 5.7%
Washington 0.0% 2.7%

Market reaction: The 10-year Treasury note TMUBMUSD10Y, +0.29%  , which sets the tone for fixed-rate mortgages, has benefited from a recent round of stock market turbulence.

Read: The man behind Case-Shiller on why the housing index has no Houston and why that’s no problem

Philadelphia and its housing market are doing just fine, with or without Case-Shiller, thank you very much.

Related: We’re probably at peak housing. Here’s what that means.

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US Housing Inventory Is Growing: Prices (may) Have to Come Down...

Still, despite the ongoing slowdown, or perhaps adding to it, the median existing-home price rose once again, hitting $247,500, up 2.8% from January 2018 ($240,800). January’s price increase marks the 83rd straight month of year-over-year gains.

Median%20Home%20Price.jpg

Even so, Yun noted that this median home price growth was the slowest since February 2012, and is cautions that the figures do not yet tell the full story for the month of January. “Lower mortgage rates from December 2018 had little impact on January sales, however, the lower rates will inevitably lead to more home sales.”

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Time to ESCAPE from New York? 

(to avoid sky-high taxes & other costs)

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D2MM7Y_UwAEeX1H.jpg


Tax Reform Causing Freakouts in Rich New York Towns...

41% say can't afford to live in NYC; Plan to leave...

LIST: Fastest-shrinking cities in USA...

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