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US House Price Data : Philadelphia, NYC & Other Cities

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Higher rent is squeezing everyone, especially the middle

 

Sept 16, 2016

Middle-income wages aren’t keeping up with rental costs.

MW-DK431_apartm_20150424164256_MG.jpg?uu

It’s getting more costly to rent.

Rental costs remained high in August, continuing to pressure the budgets of most ordinary Americans.

Rent was 3.8% higher than a year ago for the fourth month in a row, the Labor Department said Friday. That compares to the 2.4% growth in average hourly earnings.

The booming cost of rent is concerning. It points to a market in which supply isn’t keeping up with surging demand and a reminder that Americans are uneasy about, or locked out of, homeownership.

And the effects are just as troubling as the causes. Options and mobility are limited, and other expenses get squeezed out.

The trend in higher rents has been consistent throughout the economic recovery, but monthly data can be choppy. Census data released earlier this week showed a more healthy economic picture than previously expected. Incomes rose 5.2% between 2014 and 2015 and poverty slid.

Census also released some data from its 2015 American Community Survey this week. One promising trend in that data was regional income convergence, Trulia economist Ralph McLaughlin wrote in a research note. Convergence is when income growth in lower income areas is larger than in high income areas.

Incomes in the lowest-income metros grew 5.3%, faster than incomes in all others. They also grew substantially faster than housing prices, which were up 3.1%, and slightly outpaced rental costs, which were up 5.1%.

 

But for higher- and middle- income people, rental costs grew at about double the pace of incomes.

Metro type % change in income % change in house prices % change in rent Lowest income 5.3% 3.1% 5.1% Lower income 3.3% 4.6% 6.8% Middle income 4.2% 4.6% 6.7% Higher income 3.0% 4.5% 6.6% Highest income 3.4% 2.7% 7.2%

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The Gallery - a three-block-long shopping mall in Philadelphia's Center City

How it will look in 2019:

15COR108-GalleryPP-9thMarket.jpg

PREIT’s plans promise to reconnect the shopping center with the rest of Market Street. In 2014, the real estate company brought in Macerich, the third-largest publicly traded mall company in America, which now has a 50 percent interest in The Gallery.
Woodard has mixed feelings about the project, which he views as a necessary auxiliary to the Pennsylvania Convention Center and the luxury hotels that have sprouted near City Hall. Although he loved The Gallery as it was, he also recognizes that it proved a challenge. Its stores did not appeal to conventioneers and tourists, and the closest shopping destinations were around Rittenhouse Square, a mile away from the convention center. It didn’t compare to the outlet offerings that similarly prominent cities like Atlanta or Boston have in their city centers to capture tourist dollars. The population that could be served in the immediate vicinity had changed radically as well. In 1980 there were only 2,768 people per square mile in the census tract that contains The Gallery. By 2000, there were 6,762. At last count, the number had more than doubled to 14,424 with similar patterns in most of the surrounding tracts
==
> https://nextcity.org/features/view/philadelphia-gentrification-retail-gallery-mall-makeover

 

The owners of the mall,

Pennsylvania Real Estate Investment Trust (PEI) ... All-data : 5-yrs : 2-yrs : 6-mos :

PEI-all_zpsrgimfag2.gif

PEI-5yrs_zpsqsrgo06c.gif

PREIT’s plans promise to reconnect The Gallery shopping center with the rest of Market Street. In 2014, the real estate company brought in

.
Macerich (MAK) ... All : 5-yrs : 2yrs : 6-mos , the third-largest publicly traded mall company in America, has a 50% interest in The Gallery.
Mac-all_zps9mr1obvk.gif

Construction is estimated to (cost over $1 billion, and) take at least two years, and completion is expected in late 2018 or early 2019.

== ==

 

PEI : Invests in retail shopping malls and power centers especially in the eastern United States. Based in Philadelphia : website

 

MAK : Owns and operates regional shopping malls, mainly in the western US.: website

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Housing Starts Crash Most In 5 Years To 18-Month Lows
housing%20starts%20multigam.jpg

Following August's disappointing dump in Housing Starts (and Permits), September data is an utter disaster. Against expectations of a 2.9% rise, Housing Starts plunged 9.0% in September to 1.047mm - the weakest since March 2015. Year-over-year, Starts have crashed almost 12% - the most since April 2011, driven by a collapse in multi-family housing. Permits offered some hope for the future (although current starts suggests historical permits were a weak indicator).

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(The latest news about the FBI investigation is not yet in Washington home prices,

I think, but it may be soon, bringing downwards pressure.)

 

washington-housing-prices.jpg

 

washington.png

 

Washington Home Prices & Values

Zillow Home Value Index $518,800
  • 4.9% 1-year change / 3.7% 1-year forecast
Dec : $501,000
Jan. : $502,000 // July : $510,000 :
Feb : $502,000 // Aug : $515,000 :
Mar : $500,000 // Sep : $518,000 :
Apr. : $499,000 // Oct : $520,000 :
May : $501,000 //
Jun. : $505,000 //

========

Market temperature : Very Hot

The median home value in Washington is $518,800. Washington home values have gone up 4.9% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 3.7% within the next year. The median list price per square foot in Washington is $497, which is higher than the Washington Metro average of $214. The median price of homes currently listed in Washington is $549,900. The median rent price in Washington is $2,550, which is higher than the Washington Metro median of $2,000.

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Seasonal adjustments may disappear in a fast-rising market

 

ms12-12CSI.jpg

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Possible Impact of the Hispanic reversal on the US Housing Market

 

Assumes that Illegals will cluster near those recorded in Census Data

 

Where are the Hispanics?
PH-2013-08-latino-populations-2-01.png

 

  • More than half (55%) of the U.S. Hispanic population resides in three states: California, Texas, and Florida. California has the nation’s largest Hispanic population, with about 14.4 million Hispanics. California’s Hispanic population alone accounts for more than one-fourth (28%) of U.S. Hispanics.
  • Eight states have a Hispanic population of over one million: California, Texas, Florida, New York, Illinois, Arizona, New Jersey, and Colorado.

PH-2013-08-latino-populations-2-03.png

==

> http://www.pewhispanic.org/2013/08/29/ii-ranking-latino-populations-in-the-states/

 

NYC:

The New York City area represents the largest Hispanic city in the United States with a population of 2.3 million Latinos according to the 2010 census. Historically most Hispanics in New York are of Puerto Rican heritage and Puerto Ricans continue to dominate - they represent 33% of all the Latinos in New York.

Philly:

As of the 2010 census, there were 187,611 Latinos and Hispanics in Philadelphia, constituting over 12 percent of the city's population, the vast majority of which are Puerto Ricans. Most Philadelphia Hispanics self-identify as either white, black, mixed, or other, for government purposes i.e. United States Census.

==

Top 60 Hispanic Cities in America / Pew Data:

> http://www.pewhispanic.org/hispanic-population-in-select-u-s-metropolitan-areas/

=================== --------- Foreign -------- : Puerto: nonPR: Mex - : -------- : Dom.:
City----- /## - Hispanics : - Pct.- : Born : < 18yrs : Rican : ##### : -ican : ##### : Rep. :

NYC.etc #2: 4,243,000 : 23.9% : 44.5% : 29.2% : 27.4%: 3.23m: 12.9% : 547 k : ------
Chicago #5. 1,934,000 : 21.1% : 40.0% : 29.8% : 10.2%: 1.74m: 79.7% : 1.54m: ------
SanAnTx #9. 1,090,000 : 55.5% : 17.8% : 65.7% : 01.9%: 1.07m: 91.0% : 992 k : ------
Wash.DC 12. 774,000 : 14.0% : 56.2% : 17.9% : ------- : 774.k? 15.8% : 122 k : ------
Phila, PA 24. 420,000 : 7.9% : 24.7% : 11.6% : 52.5%: 199.k : 17.1% : 71.8k : 07.2%
Bost., MA 27. 403,000 : 9.9% : 42.1% : 14.5% : 27.4%: 252.k : ----- % : -----k : 26.4%
==========

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What Donald Trump's election could mean for home prices
MarketWatch-9 Nov 2016
“Homeowners that have enjoyed a 30% windfall in property values since the housing bust steadfastly re-upped on restrictive zoning practices that crippled housing supply even more,” she said.

Trump’s properties too weren't immune from a glut of top-end luxury housing, as a Redfin analysis of Trump condos in the first half of 2016 showed his brand falling back to par with the rest of his competitors when it came to pricing power in most cities outside Manhattan.

In the short term, the shock of a Trump victory will be both a boon and drag on confidence of American home buyers, said Ralph McLaughlin, chief economist with Trulia.com, a San Francisco-based real-estate research site, who said there will be short-term impacts on the so-called “Costly Coasts” dominated by upscale liberals, and the “Bargain Belt” of more blue-collar housing markets.

“Home buyers in economically healthy blue states will likely be rattled and more hesitant about the future of the U.S. economy, which will curb their interest in making large investments,” he said. “In economically stagnant red states, on the other hand, home buyers will likely feel a surge of confidence that could bolster demand.”

Still, in his acceptance speech early in the morning on Nov. 9 in New York, Trump, 70, sounded more like an old-school Democrat, promising dramatic new investments in infrastructure, which could boost demand for housing the way giant Depression-era Works Progress Administration projects like the Golden Gate Bridge and Hoover Dam created relocation opportunities for skilled workers.

 

“We are going to fix our inner cities and rebuild our highways, bridges, tunnels, airports, schools, hospitals,” Trump told his supporters. “We’re going to rebuild our infrastructure and we will put millions of our people to work as we rebuild it,” Trump said.

“If President Trump is successful in launching massive rebuilding programs in inner cities and for aging infrastructure across the country, it could have an impact on home building by consuming a lot of available building materials and skilled labor,” said Rick Sharga, executive vice president of Ten-X, (formerly Auction.com) an Irvine, Calif. - based real estate auction website.

=== ===

Revitalizing West Philly in a different way
Philly.com-12 Nov 2016
Mostly one house at a time, one block at a time, with the 27-year total ... Home-sale prices within 21/2 blocks of single-site projects were 25 ...

Report: It's 50 percent cheaper to buy than rent in Philly
Curbed Philly-20 Oct 2016
Philly's real estate market has experienced a record-breaking year with home prices hitting an all-time high since the Great Recession, but ...

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The housing cycle goes round and round
Philly.com-6 Nov 2016
Right now, a lot of the experts are attributing recent increases in home prices to a ...

In a typical recovery, average wage growth historically has been 9.2 percent after inflation, Gillen said. Since this one began in 2009, wages have increased 0.56 percent after inflation, which means that "this recovery would have to last 80 years for wages to increase to the historic average."

The economy is considered in recession when the gross domestic product is in negative territory for two consecutive quarters, Gillen said.

There is a 25 percent probability, according to some economists, that a recession will occur in the first part of 2017, while there is "near certainty" that it will happen before 2019, he said.

What will that mean for residential real estate?

You never know. Right now, a lot of the experts are attributing recent increases in home prices to a shortage of inventory of houses that today's overly picky buyers will even stop to look at.

(Remember when... just a few months ago, when Interest rates were low, and going lower? Not shooting up. like now):
TNX = 10 year Note rate x10
Rates-TNX_zpsb3wxgex3.png
Prices surging for Philly home sales
Philly.com-16 May 2016

Home values in a highly competitive Philadelphia market - newly reclassified by the real estate search engine Zillow as "very hot"...

. . .

"[This] implies that all of the losses in house values due to the bubble's deflation and subsequent recession have now been recovered. The average Philadelphia home has achieved a new all-time high in value," said Kevin Gillen, chief economist for Meyers Research and senior research fellow at Drexel University's Lindy Institute for Urban Innovation.

The median sale price of a single-family home in the city rose to $143,000 from $117,500 a year ago, Gillen said Monday, an increase of 21.7 percent. (The median is the middle value: Half the houses sold for more, half for less.)

. . .

Report: Philly is officially a seller's market with house prices at all time high ...
Curbed Philly-8 Aug 2016
The latest Lindy Institute housing report says that Philly's real estate market has gone from a balanced to seller's market. Courtesy of ...

Median+Sale+Price+(24).png

 

Redfin released its August housing market report last week, echoing news about sale prices and inventory that is beginning to sound familiar in the region.

Home prices were up just north of 6 percent last month and sales fell 4.6 percent in the city proper. This is largely tied to an ongoing decline in housing inventory – August 2016 saw 21 percent fewer homes on the market in Philadelphia than August 2015. And while last August most houses sold in about 54 days, it’s taking about 41 days to sell a house in the city now. Which means it’s no surprise that the houses that are selling are typically selling just over 15 percent above the asking price.

The trend holds when considering the suburbs as well. Regionally, the median sale price increased 2.5 percent this August when compared to last year, and inventory was down 19.2 percent from August 2015. Sales in the greater metro area tend to take about 46 days and come in around 15.7 percent over ask.

==

> http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/philadelphia-real-estate/Redfin-Report-Sale-prices-up-inventory-down-in-Philadelphia.html

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Philly's Global appeal

.

Live-work venture Startup Home is coming to Philly

It’s aiming for a March 2017 groundbreaking

Nov 7, 2016

 

In a sign of this city’s increasing popularity and burgeoning entrepreneurial community, a UK-based co-working company has announced that it is expanding to the US, choosing Philadelphia as its first base.

Startup Home, a UK-based entity that provides co-working and co-living spaces to entrepreneurs and startups, made the announcement last week and plans to break ground in Philly by March 2017. It’ll join a growing list of at least 20 co-working spaces already in the city, but it will be the first to combine co-working and co-living into one.

 

“The first building—we are planning to open between 3 and 5 in Philadelphia alone—will be in an existing building that we will refit for the occasion,” Simone Tarantino, US Executive Director, told Curbed Philly in an e-mail.

Depending on how the first building goes, they’ll consider new builds for rest of the properties. One building will be dedicated entirely to women entrepreneurs and another will be home to IoT and Augmented Reality Lab. Tarantino says two developers have already expressed interest in working with them for the new builds.

Why Philly? Tarantino points to the city’s young talent pool coming out of Penn, Drexel, and Temple.

No definite site has been nailed down, but Startup Home is working with the city and Philly Startup Leaders to pick a location that’s not in Center City. “It will most likely be in a off-centered neighborhood,” says Tarantino. “Think Northern Liberties, Fishtown, South Philly, maybe Spring Garden.”

Currently, there are numerous co-working spaces in Center City including WeWork and CultureWorks. Kensington will also be home to smaller live-work spaces at 1222 N. 2nd Street, and what’s been dubbed Techadelphia, a mixed-use development that will feature a tech co-working hub on the ground floor and apartments for rent on the upper levels.

At Startup Home, all three or five buildings will feature 20 startups each and 20 “nice-size” bedrooms that are bigger than the average hotel room, says Tarantino. Essentially, the rooms will be big enough for a tenant to live there for the six-month lease, but small enough that he or she is encouraged to spend the most time in the communal, co-working spaces.

“The goal is to foster collaboration, network and sharing, key elements of success for entrepreneurs,” says Tarantino.

Renderings are not yet available, but Startup Home is working with Mariotti Studio on the design.

> http://philly.curbed.com/2016/11/7/13524768/startup-home-coworking-live-work-philadelphia

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Russians Flock To U.S. Real Estate After Trump Victory.

.

Wealthy Russians are looking to spend big on U.S. real estate in the wake of Donald Trump's election victory.

The number of Russians who have expressed interest in buying luxury properties in the U.S. has spiked by 35% over the previous year following the billionaire's win.

=== ===

 

(Check out an INDUSTRIAL REIT):

 

Don’t write off REITs, especially this unsexy sector

Diana Olick | 8 Dec 2016 |
PLD /
Prologis Inc : 5yr-chart - not cheap... shows 3.25% yield

 

"I think in the last couple of years, there's been this fascination with the Fed and interest rates, and every time there is a rate tantrum, REITs get hit. But they all come back because fundamentally REITs house businesses," said Hamid Moghadam, CEO of Prologis, the largest industrial REIT in the nation. "When business is doing better, which is why yields are going up and everybody's so excited about infrastructure and higher levels of economic activity, well, that aspect of REITs is going to be very attractive. There is going to be higher growth as a result of that."

 

While e-commerce represents just under 10 percent of Prologis' industrial real estate portfolio, it accounts for about 30 percent of the REIT's new development activity, according to Moghadam. New development includes projects closer in to metropolitan areas, as e-commerce companies now seek to deliver goods to consumers in hours rather than days. Prologis is also developing some of the first multistory warehouses in denser neighborhoods. FedEx Ground and Amazon, shipping smaller packages, are big tenants.

==

> MORE: http://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/08/dont-write-off-reits-especially-this-unsexy-sector.html

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EXUBERANCE - a sign of a peak?

 

From Fund Manager Dave Kranzler:

In many areas of the country prices are already down 5-10%. I know, you’re going to say that offer prices are not reflecting that. But talk to the developers of NYC and SF condos who are trying to unload growing inventory. Douglas Elliman did a study of NYC resales released in October and found that resale volume was down 20% in the third quarter vs. Q3 2015. A report out in November published by Housing Wire said that home sales volume in the SF Bay area fell 10.3% in the first 9 months of 2016 vs. 2015. Price follows volume... and inventory is piling up.

 

NYC led the popping of the big housing bubble. It will this time too. Prices in the “famed” Hampton resort area down 20% on average and some case down as much as 50% from unrealistic offering prices. Delinquencies and defaults are rising as well. While the mainstream media reported that foreclosures hit a post-crisis low in October, not reported by the mainstream media is that delinquencies, defaults and foreclosure starts are spiking up. Foreclosure starts in Colorado were up 65% from September to October.

 

Housing starts for November were reported today to have crashed 18.7% from October led by a 44% collapse in multi-family starts. No surprise there. Denver, one of the hottest markets in the country over the last few years with 11k people per month moving here, is experiencing a massive pile-up in new building apartment inventory. I got a flyer in the mail last week advertising a new luxury building offering 2 months free rent and free parking plus some other incentives. Readers and subscribers from all over the country are reporting similar conditions in their market. Yes, I know some small pockets around the country may still be “hot,” but if you live in one of those areas email me with what you are seeing by June.

 

Here’s a preview of some of the content in Sunday’s Short Seller’s Journal (click to enlarge):

 

HMI.png?resize=463%2C334

 

The graph above is from the NAHB’s website that shows its homebuilder “sentimement” index plotted against single-family housing starts. You’ll note the tight correlation except in times of irrational exuberance exhibited by builders. You’ll note that starts crash when exuberance is at a peak. Exuberance by builders hit a high in November not seen since 2005…here’s how it translated in the homebuilder stocks:

==

> MORE: http://www.silverdoctors.com/headlines/finance-news/housing-starts-crash-sales-volume-and-prices-to-follow/#more-74981

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13th_Market_Tower2.png

 

Office tower planned at long-empty lot near Philadelphia City Hall
Philly.com-19 Dec 2016
A West Conshohocken developer plans to build a 38-story office tower at the long-vacant lot at 13th and Market Streets.
The building could be ready for occupancy by early 2020.

The site at 1301 Market St. was previously occupied by a row of blighted buildings from the early 20th century that were cleared in the 1990s. The space is currently used as a parking lot.

If completed, the tower would be the first so-called trophy-class office property in Philadelphia’s Market East sector east of City Hall, traditionally a lower-end market, said Lauren Gilchrist, Philadelphia research director at commercial real estate firm JLL.

But with Market East office rents now close to those of the city’s main business corridor west of City Hall, Oliver Tyrone Pulver’s plan for high-end offices there could be justified, Gilchrist said.

 

Also helping draw tenants are the Market East area’s high concentration of train and subway stations and the stores and restaurants opening to serve its growing residential population, said Robert Fahey, an executive vice president at commercial real estate services firm CBRE in Philadelphia.

Other projects in the area include the redevelopment of the Gallery at Market East shopping mall and the East Market residential and retail complex on Market Street between 11th and 12th.

“That side of City Hall is transforming faster than any other part of our central business district,” he said.

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" Mini bubbles are now ready to burst. NYC real estate is now declining rapidly,

this is the beginning of the real estate market breaking apart"

 

To 2016 - possible High

fredgraph.png?id=NYXRCNSA&nsh=1

To 2011 Lowcondo-chart-two3-940x607.jpg

 

'16 121,000: 4.31% : 569,000 : 6.95% : 185.31 : 5.66% : 259.40: 179.51 : 179.51 : 208.94 : 182.11 :
F. : 122,000: 4.27% : 572,000 : 7.12% : 186.66 : 5.40% : 261.18: 179.12 : 179.12 : 208.22 : 181.88 :
M : 123,500: 5.74% : 576,000 : 7.46% : 188.56 : 5.39% : 262.90: 179.61 : 179.61 : 209.59 : 184.07 :

A : 124,500: 7.33% : 580,000 : 7.81% : 188.04 : 4.80% : 258.96: 180.45 : 180.52 : 212.88 : 186.73 :
M : 125,400: 8.10% : 585,000 : 7.73% : 187.91 : 5.25% : 260.36: 181.43 : 181.25 : 214.99 : 189.33 :
J. : 126,300: 7.95% : 590,000 : 7.66% : 187.75 : 5.19% : 262.23: 181.72 : 182.73 : 216.36 : 190.35 :
Jl : 129.000: 8.40% : 596,000 : 7.78% : 187.78 : 5.21% : 264.17: 181.00 : 183.68 : 216.98 : 191.49 :
A : 130,000: 7.44% : 602,000 : 7.89% : 188.23 : 5.29% : 266.94: 181.06 : 184.75 : 217.77 : 192.09 :
S : 131,000: 7.38% : 608,000 : 7.80% : 189.03 : 5.24% : 266.40: 181.51 : 184.75 : 217.59 : 192.30 :

O : 132,000: 7.32% : 615,000 : 8.08% : 190.45 : 0.00% : 268.02: 182.05 : 184.08 : 217.87 : 192.40 :
N : 132,000: 8.20% : 621,000 : 8.19% :
D : 132,300: 8.20% : 621,000 :

mo Ph-Zhv : YoYr : Nyc_Zhc : YoYr : 20cityI : YoYr : condo: C-NYC : C-NyNs: C-Wash C-Bost.

===

Zillow: Philly : ------> : NYC-Z : -------> : 20-city: 20c-Nsa: condo: NY-rsa: /(NSA): NYC : Wash : Bost :

 

The Central Banks Have Positioned The Economy To Collapse Which Will Usher In The Reset – Episode 1165

Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 25:32 — 29.5MB)

youtube_website_reset2.jpg

 

Trump announces that Sprint will bring back 5,000 jobs. Gold surges on a huge purchase of paper contracts. Mini bubbles are now ready to burst. NYC real estate is now declining rapidly, this is the beginning of the real estate market breaking apart. Italian banks are now seeing a bank run on their banks and they need more capital to keep the banks afloat. The entire economy is now setup for the economic reset. The central bankers are prepared and ready to throw the switch to bring the entire economy down. Republicans are ready to repeal Obamacare. Angela Merkel is desperate, she will now fine social media $522,000 for each story that is not aligned with the government.US spreading more propaganda that North Korea is now developing another missile site. Russia, Turkey, Iran and Syria brokered a ceasefire deal and will be triggered Dec 30. US Government have made their move with lies and fake news, they are pushing and provoking Russia to get a war started, next move a cyber attack. US says that they did not create, fund or support the IS, that Turkey is using fake news. US is sending additional troops to Syria.

 

Check Out The X22 Report Spotlight YouTube Channel – X22Report Spotlight

Please check Newzsentinel.com for the latest news on the economic collapse.

 

Fact Check:

There's not much evidence (yet) of a price drop.

But sales are slowing on big supply, and rising interest rates

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NYC Real Estate : Sales slowed, but prices rose

 

GettyImages-497846288-Empire-WTC.jpg
New York tours and attractions: Empire State building with One World Trade Center in the distant background.

 

/ 1 /

NYC Luxury Real Estate Market Drops in 2016:
Report The numbers are down sharply from 2013-2015 but still much higher than they were in 2012

New York City's luxury real estate market cooled considerably this year, with the number of high-end sales down 18 percent, realtors Olshan Realty Inc said Tuesday.

Olshan blamed co-ops for the decline, as demand has shifted to condos instead. But even still, the "golden years" of new condo construction have passed, the firm added.

A total of 1,102 properties had contracts signed for $4 million or more this year, down sharply from 2013-2015 but still higher than 2012, before the condo boom started.

NYC-RE-Chart.png

New York City's luxury real estate market, defined as housing with prices of more than $4 million, saw an 18 percent decline in contracts signed in 2016, as the condo market cooled.

Average days on the market rose 30 percent, meaning it took an extra two months to sell a luxury apartment this year versus 2015. The average asking price also rose, but the average decline from asking to contract actually increased a bit.

/ 2 /

The fever in New York's luxury property market is cooling
Financial Times-26 Aug 2016
Whatever happens to prices of luxury New York real estate, there's ... There were about 5,250 apartments available to buy in Manhattan this ...

 

/ 3 /

Manhattan Luxury-Condo Builders Fight Glut With Sweetened Deals
Bloomberg-1 Sep 2016
Prospective buyers at one Upper East Side condo project are ... In New York, where more than 3,500 new apartments are hitting the market this ...
/ 4 /
A Manhattan Apartment Now Costs an Average $2 Million
Fortune-14 Dec 2016
Manhattan real estate prices set a record high in 2016, according to CityRealty's year-end market report for the New York City borough.
/ 5 /
Two Big Condo Sales on 'Billionaires' Row' Lift the Market
New York Times-30 Dec 2016
A flurry of pricey condominium sales, many of them at Manhattan's newest .... was New York City's second most expensive closed sale in 2016.
The most expensive of these closed December transactions, according to New York City property records, was an aerie that encompasses the 88th floor of the 96-story 432 Park Avenue in “Billionaires’ Row,” between 56th and 57th Streets. The building is the tallest residential tower in the Western Hemisphere, topping out at 1,396 feet, or more than a quarter-mile.

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New York Real Estate Prices Plunge In 4Q As Listing Days and Discounts Soar

 

Real%20Estate%20Bubble_2.jpg
Manhattan Market- : 3Q-2016 : 4Q-2016 : ChgPct: 4Q-2015 : ChgPct:
Median Sales Price: $1.074m.: $1.050m .: - 2.2 % : $1.150m.: - 8.7% :

Data from Douglas Elliman's 4Q 2016 New York real estate report brings some unwelcome news for the city's hedgies and I-bankers with median pricing and sales volume crashing while apartments sit vacant on the market for longer and longer.

. . .

After reviewing the Elliman Report on the New York City Real Estate market at the end of 3Q 2016, we concluded that sellers had simply refused to accept the fact that the Manhattan real estate bubble had burst and rather than dropping prices had decided to simply let their apartments sit on the market unsold while hoping for a miracle. Here was our conclusion (see "NYC Real Estate Bubble Bursts As Apartment Sales Crash 20%"):

Alas, with the release of Elliman's 4Q 2016 report, it has become apparent that that miracle never materialized for New York's hedgies and i-bankers. In fact, the data from Manhattan real estate sales was almost universally bad with median pricing down 8.7% YoY, volume down 3.7%, listing days up 14.6% and discounts up to 5.5%.

In conclusion, the lesson seems to be that the marginal New York City buyer has been priced out of the market (volume down 20%) while sellers have not yet accepted that the bubble has burst deciding instead to maintain listing prices while letting their apartments sit on the market longer amid growing inventory levels. Meanwhile, the luxury market is the only segment that seems to be holding up which only serves to prove that Chinese billionaires still have cash they would like to hide in the U.S.

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New York Real Estate Prices Plunge In 4Q As Listing Days and Discounts Soar

 

Real%20Estate%20Bubble_2.jpg
Manhattan Market- : 3Q-2016 : 4Q-2016 : ChgPct: 4Q-2015 : ChgPct:

Median Sales Price: $1.074m.: $1.050m .: - 2.2 % : $1.150m.: - 8.7% :

Data from Douglas Elliman's 4Q 2016 New York real estate report brings some unwelcome news for the city's hedgies and I-bankers with median pricing and sales volume crashing while apartments sit vacant on the market for longer and longer.

. . .

After reviewing the Elliman Report on the New York City Real Estate market at the end of 3Q 2016, we concluded that sellers had simply refused to accept the fact that the Manhattan real estate bubble had burst and rather than dropping prices had decided to simply let their apartments sit on the market unsold while hoping for a miracle. Here was our conclusion (see "NYC Real Estate Bubble Bursts As Apartment Sales Crash 20%"):

Alas, with the release of Elliman's 4Q 2016 report, it has become apparent that that miracle never materialized for New York's hedgies and i-bankers. In fact, the data from Manhattan real estate sales was almost universally bad with median pricing down 8.7% YoY, volume down 3.7%, listing days up 14.6% and discounts up to 5.5%.

In conclusion, the lesson seems to be that the marginal New York City buyer has been priced out of the market (volume down 20%) while sellers have not yet accepted that the bubble has burst deciding instead to maintain listing prices while letting their apartments sit on the market longer amid growing inventory levels. Meanwhile, the luxury market is the only segment that seems to be holding up which only serves to prove that Chinese billionaires still have cash they would like to hide in the U.S.

Saw this thread title and thought of this ZH post.Word from contacts in UK construction is that things have turned with some talking of a rerun of 2008.

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(The latest news about the FBI investigation is not yet in Washington home prices,

I think, but it may be soon, bringing downwards pressure.)

 

washington-housing-prices.jpg

 

washington.png

 

Washington Home Prices & Values

Zillow Home Value Index $518,800
  • 4.9% 1-year change / 3.7% 1-year forecast
Dec : $501,000

Jan. : $502,000 // July : $510,000 :

Feb : $502,000 // Aug : $515,000 :

Mar : $500,000 // Sep : $518,000 :

Apr. : $499,000 // Oct : $520,000 :

May : $501,000 //

Jun. : $505,000 //

 

========

Market temperature : Very Hot

The median home value in Washington is $518,800. Washington home values have gone up 4.9% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 3.7% within the next year. The median list price per square foot in Washington is $497, which is higher than the Washington Metro average of $214. The median price of homes currently listed in Washington is $549,900. The median rent price in Washington is $2,550, which is higher than the Washington Metro median of $2,000.

 

Ben Carson, President Donald Trump’s pick for secretary of Housing and Urban Development, has dropped $1.22 million on a new home in Vienna, Virginia, just outside of Washington, D.C.

Mr. Carson and his wife, Lacena “Candy” Carson, closed on the brick colonial at the end of January, according to county property records. The seller was Mark Langevin, a lawyer.

More: Click to Read About Ben Carson’s $4.37 Million Florida Mansion

The sales history for the home shows that the Carsons got a deal on the 1.5-acre property. The neurosurgeon-come-politician paid less for the home than its last two owners. The house changed hands for $1.56 million more than a decade ago, in 2005, and again in 2012 for $1.3 million.

Mr. Carson, 65, bought the home for a discount off the original asking price, too. He got it for 13% less than the $1.599 million set when the five-bedroom first hit the market last year.

==

http://www.mansionglobal.com/articles/54123-ben-carson-snaps-up-d-c-area-home-for-a-discount?mod=mansion_global_articles_en_wsj_home&mod=mansiongl_edit_outbrain_Dec

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HOW MUCH HOUSING (in Sq Ft) can $1 Million buy you - in various cities?

 

Housing_CostOf_zpshb3b9awx.png

 

Philadelphia still looks like an interesting "low cost" option.

But some wild ideas are being considered, which misconstrue a Poverty problem as a Housing problem,

As the image above shows, there is plenty of cheap housing in Philly

 

Philadelphia City Council President Darrell Clarke unveiled a new plan this week to address what he calls a housing affordability “crisis.”

Creatively titled “The 1,500 Affordable Housing Units Initiative,” the proposal calls for the construction of 1,000 affordable rental units and 500 purchasable homes, with the goal of reducing the backlog of 110,000 people on the Philadelphia Housing Authority’s waiting list.

The 500 homes would come from transferring city-owned vacant properties to non-profit and private developers for low fees with a restrictive deed covenant attached, requiring that they be sold to households who earn between 80 to 120 percent of the Area Median Income. Philly’s AMI is officially $78,800 for a family of four, though PlanPhilly’s Jared Brey notes the actual median income in Philadelphia County is $37,016.

The 1,000 rental units would be financed with a $100 million bond issue and some complicated public finance alchemy leveraging an underused 4 percent federal Low Income Housing Tax Credit.

While it’s always good to see well-meaning city leaders engaging with housing affordability and cost of living issues, the big problem with Clarke’s plan is that the housing affordability “crisis” he’s worrying about doesn’t actually exist. The impetus for the plan rests on a misreading of the policy implications of a recent Urban Institute report, cited in Clarke’s press release:

In 2012, for every 100 extremely low-income renter households in Philadelphia there were only 37 available affordable rentals units, according to the nonpartisan Urban Institute in Washington, D.C. In total, there were 43,700 affordable and available rental units for 117,578 extremely low-income renter households in Philadelphia.

Clearly this is a huge problem. But it isn’t really a housing problem — it’s an income problem.

The housing itself is quite cheap here compared to most of Philadelphia’s peer cities. The real issue is the 28.4 percent poverty rate, one of the highest in the nation. Cheap as the housing is in absolute terms, a sizable segment of the population still doesn’t earn enough money to afford it.

==

> more: https://nextcity.org/daily/entry/philly-has-an-income-problem-not-a-housing-affordability-problem

 

So many poor people are living in the city of Philadelphia precisely because it IS CHEAP.

Presumably, the creation of many decent jobs would be the very best cure for this problem

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Death of Suburbia:

US Millennials go to (small) extremes to live in the cities.

27 photos show the extreme lengths millennials will go to live in cities instead of suburbs - Business Insider

 

Fellow transplants Heather Stewart and Luke Iseman were spending $2,200 a month on rent in San Francisco when they decided to join the tiny house movement.
fellow-transplants-heather-stewart-and-l
Melia Robinson
The couple bought a shipping container online for $2,300, had it delivered to a vacant parking lot in the East Bay that they leased, and converted it into a tiny house.
the-couple-bought-a-shipping-container-o
Melia Robinson/Tech Insider
Today, they makes a living as the pseudo-landlords of Boxouse, a maker space where amateur builders and hobbyists can construct the tiny homes of their dreams.
today-they-makes-a-living-as-the-pseudo-
Melia Robinson/Tech Insider

Take a look inside Boxouse »

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Buying a home still beats renting (in the USA) / MarketWatch

 

The burden of student debt and a shortage of suitable starter homes pose challenges for many first time buyers. However, a recent study, published by the real estate website Trulia.com, indicates if they can manage the payments, it pays for most households to take the plunge.

 

The study estimated the monthly cost of owning the average home — factoring in property taxes, insurance, income tax deduction benefits, and the like — and compared those to comparable rental dwellings. Across the U.S. — including some quite expensive locales such as San Francisco and New York — generally, it is less costly to buy than rent.

While closing costs, realtor’s fees, and the like can wipe out those savings if you have to move within a few years, you don’t have to be in a home all that long to profit nicely.

Employing a handy calculator on the Trulia site, I estimated that for the Washington, D.C. metro area — with 10% down, a 30-year mortgage and a 4.40% interest rate — if the average home is occupied for five years after purchase, owning beats renting by about 11%. Extending the turnover period to seven years boosts the savings of owning versus renting to 23% .

 

(this calculation seems to exclude possible capital gains)

 

 

PHM / Pulte Homes : 5-yrs : 2-yrs : Last $23.28 - a reasonable target would be $24.50 -$25

PHM_zps1orzgh8z.gif

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Philly still rising (+8.53%), but not as fast as NYC (+11.1%)

 

O : 132,000: 7.32% : 615,000 : 8.08% : 190.48 : 5.31% : 263.26: 182.27 : 184.14 : 215.68 : 192.32 :
N : 132,000: 8.20% : 622,000 : 8.19% : 192.18 : 5.31% : 264.59: 184.31 : 184.61 : 215.76 : 193.19 :
D : 132,600: 9.59% : 627,000 : 10.1% : 193.97 : 5.53% : 268.63: 186.07 : 185.26 : 216.46 : 194.16 :
J. : 133,700: 10.5% : 630,600 : 10.8% : 195.47 : 5.48% : 271.15: 186.75 : 185.16 : 217.12 : 194.93 :
F : 134,100: 9.92% : 631,300 : 10.4% :
M : 136,100: 8.53% : 650,000 : 11.1% :

 

mo Ph-Zhv : YoYr : Nyc_Zhc : YoYr : 20cityI : YoYr : condo: C-NYC : C-NyNs: C-Wash C-Bost.

===

Zillow: Philly : ------> : NYC-Z : -------> : 20-city: 20c-Nsa: condo: NY-rsa: /(NSA): NYC : Wash : Bost

 

===

Neighborhood: Cobbs Creek

Median Zestimate $78,000 + 8.6% : Past 12 months
Market temp Very Hot
Foreclosures (per 10K)
9.5 Cobbs Creek vs: 5.3 Philadelphia : 1.5 United States

Zillow predicts Cobbs Creek home values will increase 0.5% next year, compared to a 3.5% increase for Philadelphia as a whole.

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Meantime, back in Philadelphia...

 

The Gallery Mall's parent companies are struggling in the stock markey

 

Mall owner, PEI's stock took a big hit. The operator, MAC's did too - Why?

 

Stock------------- : -High- : -Low- : -Last- :change: Yield : P/E : H.x50.0%
PEI - : Penn REIT : $25.7 : $13.76: $15.16 - 41.0% : 5.54% : N/A : $12.85
MAC : Macerich-- : $94.0 : $62.14: $65.05 - 30.8% : 4.37% : 92.9 : $47.00

 

To me, this looks like the mid-cycle correction is now underway

PEI / Pennsylvania REIT: . All-data : 5-yrs : 2-yrs : 6-mos :
PEI-Cycle_zps9ifyxsaf.gif

 

 


The Gallery - a three-block-long shopping mall in Philadelphia's Center City


Pennsylvania Real Estate Investment Trust (PEI) ... All-data : 5-yrs : 2-yrs : 6-mos :

PEI-all_zpsrgimfag2.gif

PEI-5yrs_zpsqsrgo06c.gif

PREIT’s plans promise to reconnect The Gallery shopping center with the rest of Market Street. In 2014, the real estate company brought in

.
Macerich (MAK) ... All : 5-yrs : 2yrs : 6-mos , the third-largest publicly traded mall company in America, has a 50% interest in The Gallery.
Mac-all_zps9mr1obvk.gif

Construction is estimated to (cost over $1 billion, and) take at least two years, and completion is expected in late 2018 or early 2019.

== ==

 

PEI : Invests in retail shopping malls and power centers especially in the eastern United States. Based in Philadelphia : website

 

MAK : Owns and operates regional shopping malls, mainly in the western US.: website

THIS may be why:

 

"Something Snapped": US Department Store Sales Crash Most On Record

On the other hand, one particular chart revealed in the latest monthly Bank of America debit and credit card spending report shows that things may be about to get a whole lot worse for America's department stores, as well as malls where they are for the most part the anchor tenants. Of note: while official US retail sales data will be released tomorrow (BofA data always comes several days ahead of the official release), what is especially ominous is that the collapse in department store spending was the biggest on record:

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/03/06/bigger%20short_0.jpg
bigger%20short_0.jpg

 

Breaking down the headline number into components shows a notable decline across virtually all subsegments, with the exception of Cruise Ships (clearly not a concern for much of middle-class America), Home improvement stores and Home goods. Everything else was flat to down substantially.

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/03/06/sector%20level%20sales_0_0.jpg
sector%20level%20sales_0_0.jpg

To be sure, Bank of America tries to explain the sudden February weakness with the previously documented delay in tax refunds, although that hypothesis does not conform with last week's Gallup survey according to which February Consumer spending was the highest since 2008. This is what BofA says: "We believe that a delay in tax refunds likely biased spending lower in February relative to prior years.

Comparing debit and credit card spend is a good indication since presumably usage of debit cards should be more sensitive to the tax refund (proxy for cash) than credit cards (leverage). Indeed, we found that retail sales ex-autos for debit cards declined 1.7% mom while credit card spending was up 1.8% mom. The second test we looked at was by income cohort -- the tax changes are more likely to impact the lower income households given that the EITC and ACTC are aimed at assisting lower-income households. We see this clearly in our data where the lowest income quintile reduced spending by 3.4% while the highest income quintile actually increased spending by 0.9% mom. We combine these two factors in the Chart of the Month to show weaker debit card spending, particularly for lower income households.

==

> more: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-14/something-snapped-us-department-store-sales-crash-most-record

 

> NEW thread: Philadelphia related Equities: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=21415

 

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-14/something-snapped-us-department-store-sales-crash-most-record

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Vancouver's Bubble versus the Non-bubble in NYC, Philly, etc

 

David and Goliath: a priceless Vancouver academic retires, after 45 years grappling with unaffordability

UBC geography professor David Ley has had a front-row seat to the epic transformation of a city

 

He arrived in the city in 1972, a bearded Briton in flared jeans, armed with an Oxford degree and an activist streak that had already taken him to Philadelphia. There he had both studied and sought to alleviate the stressed conditions of African American residents of poor neighbourhoods, where vacant homes struggled to find buyers for US$1. The former was conducted through his PhD work at Pennsylvania State University, the latter through volunteer work at a Presbyterian church.

 

e93770e6-2524-11e7-a553-18fc4dcb5811_132

He lived in the urban landscape he studied. The same would be true in Vancouver.

 

He landed here when the city was undergoing the first throes of gentrification, in contrast to the decay he had seen in Philadelphia. But he noticed victims here too - residents evicted from rooming houses to make way for the first condo developments. He could never have guessed that he was securing a ringside seat for one of the world’s most remarkable urban transformations, turning modest Vancouver into one of the planet’s most unaffordable cities, its residents alternately enriched and overwhelmed by waves of foreign capital. A global test case and basket case.

Is huge loophole being opened in Vancouver’s foreign buyer tax?

 

His benchmark work, the peer-reviewed 2010 book Millionaire Migrants, lays out the case that Vancouver’s unaffordability woes are products of policy, international capital and wealth migration, and Goliath-like pro-development forces pushing the notion that answers lie in market-driven supply. Ley argues instead that market-driven condo development and on-the-ground unaffordability have gone hand in glove.

 

725969b0-2525-11e7-a553-18fc4dcb5811_132

 

Now Ley, 69, perhaps the most significant academic voice in the unaffordability debate, is retiring from UBC; the former head of the geography department taught his last class this month and he officially retires at the end of the year after a research sabbatical. He continues to study real estate bubbles around the world, and there will likely be another book at the end of it, examining and comparing Vancouver, Hong Kong, Singapore, Sydney and London.

==

> more: http://www.scmp.com/news/world/united-states-canada/article/2089031/david-and-goliath-priceless-vancouver-academic

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