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MAKATI PRIME.Com (Gateway page & Links)*

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: MAKATI PRIME.Com : ...... : > Index page ...

DATA: Tips: Diary: Rent: Office: Circuit: Arca: rail: chi'tn: cGate: Rise: chRoces: Bubl : Ads : ssc

jst3yi6.jpg

Other: SSC ec / AX ph1 ph2 / mm-up / PP / moreCharts & Data :

3FXQX0s.png

WHAT'S NEW here? /

Collier's data show Q3 rents down 8.4% from peak to P 809psm, Values +10.4% : >#452:

CHAT with others about the possible slow bursting of the Property Bubble in Manila / on the BUBL thread,
(To become a member and Join the discussion here, scroll down to post #3, below)

==========================================

Why Makati's CBD area remains Prime / Seek 2nd-hand Bargains?
“It's the address if you want to establish yourself in the Philippines”
... Many upscale, vertical residences available just a short walk from the headquarters of so many prime companies.

... Currently, foreign investors can only own 40% of a building’s total space area. But that may change...

... Developers have pushed up prices fast, & best bargains are now in the Secondary Market: #1, #2, Rise.

B39vQxI.jpg

Decoding the abbreviations at the top of this post:
Summary GUIDE to the principal Threads in the MAKATI Prime section of the larger GEI Forum

*This is the Landing page - and the jumping-off point to many other MP threads

Some Key threads :

ALL are in GEI's Makati Property sub-forum : how to JOIN HERE, see post #3, scroll down
CityGate* : photos & comments on Citygate, Kroma, & nearby projects
TheRise* : photos & comments, and marketplace for Buying & Selling Rise flats
DATA ---- : Ph Peso / Property in Makati, BGC, and Circuit etc (MPr's Most-read thread: 74,000+ views)
Tips ------ : Makati Tips: Choosing a Condo to Rent (or to Buy)
Renting - : RENTING in Makati and BGC : Short Term and Longer
Offices -- : Makati : Investing in, or renting Office space (AFT, etc.)

Arca-S.--  : Manila area - Arca South (new CBD near the airport)
Boni-Shaw : Mandaluyong, between Boni & Shaw stations on the MRT
GREO-yt  : GREO Channel : Global Real Estate Opportunities

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MAKATI has come a long way... in only a few decades

From this: ...

tKkXnTM.jpg

Some History of Makati, & Ayala Premier's Park Terraces project

To this: prior image

OnNtePE.jpg

The Citygate Area (above) is now undergoing a New phase of rapid development.

After the 2nd World War, the runways of what was then the Nielson International Airport became Ayala Avenue and Paseo De Roxas. Around these strips, foreign and local investors started planting their roots, eventually transforming Makati into the vibrant, booming city that we know today.

It has been a wonderous Journey.... and it is not over ... checkout what is coming at Citygate: Kroma, AFT, Rise, Air, etc

(Here's a short video about the basics of buying property in the Philippines ):

VIDEO : from the Global REO channel

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How to JOIN the Discussion on threads here - It's Free

To join the chats & the community at Makati Prime, ... & the GEI forums

Go Read the instructions in post #2 of the GEI Landing page.

(However to get past security, you will need to be able to answer a question concerning Dr B's favorite animal.

Hint: not an animal - it is THIS GUY, "Admiral Byrd", spell with a "Y", not "I")

If you are living in the Greater Manila area, you might also consider joining one of the Meet-up groups,

such as :

global_448692178.jpeg > Meet-Up: Manila Real Estate Investors :

Meet-ups have attracted as many as 22 people - there are over 50 people on the Viber chat. Membership to the Makati Prime forums on GEI is free, and once you have joined, you can post on the Forums here.

The Meet-up Groups are also Free to attend. Sometimes there are limits on numbers, so book early.

You may want to make your first post here on our special Forum (to introduce yourself, & talk freely):

+ PRIVATE CHAT for Makati : Introduce yourself, & Free-form discussion

* ( Chat thread was moved to a private area, public / non-members cannot see it / * )

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LATEST Prices : to Q3-2016 / see DATA used to create the following chart ... PB :

IiHLsKP.jpg

 

Our Original Prediction, from the inception of the Makati Prime website was for a cyclical peak in 2016: PB : 2 :

j69Nwdm.gif

> See the underlying DATA, on this thread: Philippines Peso / Makati Property etc 

> other links : hsbchk / hsrate : gold : gld /

But don't lose Long Term confidence in Makati:

Makati's Competitive advantages (per a Megaworld advertorial)

aOvxFM4.jpg : PB : Lamudi on Makati

EXCERPTs:

+ Land values in the Makati CBD has risen by 2.43 percent, hitting an average Php463,700 per sqm (to Q3-2015)

+ Worsening traffic conditions, which if taken in a different context also means that business is booming and commercial growth is far from dying down, have also contributed to more Makati-based employees looking to live closer to their work. This has kept rental rates in the city stable / to rising despite heavy completions.

Costs Remain Competitive

While the city of Makati is unquestionably the costliest city to be based in, it is still comparatively more affordable than the other major cities in Southeast Asia, making it a preferred choice for foreign-based investors.

From a residential standpoint, rental rates may have risen to 1.5 percent for the third quarter of 2015, but this rise is welcomed by analysts as it is dispels the rumor of an impending real estate bubble. And as mentioned, Makati is still more affordable when compared to others in Southeast Asia, with stamp duties to be paid in a places like Singapore good enough for the purchase of a condo (in Makati)

. . .

All true.

But my main concerns for residential rents and values are:

+ The huge rise in completions that Colliers expects in 2016 (4,148 units) versus 2015 (now estimated at just 1,000, rather than the 4,608 that had been forecast) - see post #208, in Data thread.

+ A slowdown in the global economy is expected in 2016-17 and beyond, and that may impact on the high grow expected for the Philippines

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+ LAND and Capital Values in the Makati CBD had been rising quarter-by-quarter

(With Land prices pushing above P 500,000 psm in early-2016, even as Capital Values slow)

UNTIL 2016! There was a trend change in Rents and Values as the market entered 2016.

PRICES, yields : Makati from Q1-12, Bonifacio from Q3-12

Qtr /Yr : LAND : CapVal: Yield%: MRents: QonQtr: YonYr / Bgc-CpV
1Q /12 : 284.1k : 114.1k :
2Q /12 : 284.6k : 115.4k :
3Q /12 : 289.1k : 116.0k : 7.32% : 0,708 : +0.EE%: +5.0E% / 116.3k
4Q /12 : 291.8k : 118.0k : 7.32% : 0,720 : +1.69% : +7.0E% / 118.7k:
1Q /13 : 298.1k : 123.8k : 7.12% : 0,735 : +2.08% : +8.0E% / 121.5k
2Q /13 : 304.2k : 128.7k : 7.27% : 0,780 : +6.12% : +11 E% / 127.6k
3Q /13 : 322.4k : 132.0k : 7.27% : 0,800 : +2.56% : +13.0% / 130.0k
4Q /13 : 341.5k : 134.9k : 7.16% : 0,805 : +0.63% : +11.8% / 131.8k
1Q /14 : 353.8k : 136.5k : 7.12% : 0,810 : +0.62% : +10.2% / 133.2k
2Q /14 : 366.4k : 138.1k : 7.13% : 0,820 : +1.23% : +5.13% / 134.9k
3Q /14 : 435.0k : 142.8k : 6.97% : 0,830 : +1.22% : +3.75% / 139.0k
4Q /14 : 440.0k : 144.5k : 6.96% : 0,838 : +0.96% : +4.10% / 145.0k
1Q /15 : 443.8k : 147.4k : 6.90% : 0,848 : +1.19% : +4.69% / 146.3k
2Q /15 : 452.5k : 149.0k : 6.94% : 0,862 : +1.65% : +5.12% / 148.0k
3Q /15 : 460.0k : 151.0k : 6.95% : 0,875 : +1.51% : +5.42% / 149.5k
4Q /15 : 500.0k : 151.0k : 7.02% : 0,883 : +0.91% : +5.37% / 150.1k

1Q /16 : 523.0k : 152.0k : 6.86% : 0,869 : - 1.59% : +2.48% / 150.0k
2Q /16 : 545.0k : 147.5k : 6.98% : 0,858 : - 1.27% : - 0.46% / 146.5k

2Q /16 : 545.0k : 147.6k : 6.88% : 0,855 : - 1.16% : - 0.11% / 146.3k
3Q /16 : ???? k : 146.5k : 6.87% : 0,840 : - 1.75% : - 4.00% / 143.7k

2Q /17 : 541 K :
Qtr /Yr. : LAND : CapVal: Yield%: MRents: QonQtr: YronYr / Bgc-CpV
F'cast

4Q /16: ???? k : ???? k : ??? % : 0,856 :>+1.90% : -3.06%:

1Q /17: 559.5k : 159.6k : 6.28% : 0,835 :> -2.45% : -3.91%:
2Q /17: 620.5k : 142.0k : 6.85% : 0,810 :> -2.00% : -5.59%
3Q /17: ???? k : 138.8k : 6.87% : 0,795 :> -1.85% : -5.36%

====
Key :
LAND - : Average Land prices in Makati's CBD
CapVal.: Mean Capital values for Makati 3 BR Condo, P per SM
Yield % : Calculated Gross yield
MRents : Mean rentals for Makati 3 BR Condo, P per SM / mo.
QonQtr : Quarter on quarter rise or fall
YonYr. : Year on year rise or fall
Bgc-CpV : Mean Capital values for 3BR, Bonifacio G.C., P /SM
F' cast : Forecast levels, 4 quarters ahead

> Makati Land for sale : Lamudi : Prop24 :

See the Data - in the LAND column below - Land prices have almost doubled in 4 years!

(That rate of growth is unsustainable over the long term)

More DATA : Capital Values : Rental Prices :

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Land Price: Examples at Q4-2015 : P 500k average for Makati

Area-- : Peso Range psm : Q3 Ave. / Peso Range psm: Q4-Ave : change : Fore-YoY
Makati : 340,000-580,000 : 460,000 / 363,000- 637,000 : 500,000 : + 8.69 %/ + 5.09%
B.G.C.  : 281,000-519,000 : 368,500 / 292,000- 542,000 : 417,000 : +13.16%/ + 4.09%
Ortigas: 130,000-215,000 : 172,500 / 141,000- 233,000 : 187,000 : + 8.41 %/ + 4.26% ... Per Colliers: Q4-2015.Pugzwll.jpg

Makati Land for Sale -

Examples from Lamudi :

> http://www.lamudi.com.ph/makati/land/buy/?keyword=%2Bsale%20%2Blots%20%2Bmakati&gclid=CJP637Ki3csCFYSjvQodyDcHkQ

: PRICE------- / Size----- Per SM

+ 3.432 billion/2288sm= 1.50mn psm : Com'l Lot, Ayala Avenue
+ 600.0 million/4000sm= 150.0k psm : Vacant Land
+ 540.5 million/2162sm= 250.0k psm : Buendia Com'l Corner Lot, Sen. Gil Puyat Ave., Makati

+ 370.0 million/ 960 sm= 385.4k psm : Vacant Lot, Bel-Air Edsa com'l lot
+ 240.0 million/1165sm= 206.0k psm : Vacant Lot, Urdaneta Village Makati

+ P80.0 million/ 560sm = 142.9k psm : Vacant Lot, Bel-Air, Makati
+ P37.0 million/ 410sm = 90.24k psm : San Antonio Village, Makati
+ P36.0 million/ 199sm = 180.9k psm : Lot 13, Block 21J, Victor St. Pio del Pilar (residential lot)

+ P24.0 million/ 402sm = 59.70k psm : Lot, Florida St, Palanan, Makati (resi./coml)
+ P19.0 million/ 271sm = 70.11k psm : Vacant Lot, Poblacion, Makati
+ P 3,500,000/ 107 sm = 32.71k psm : Vacant Lot: Sweet Orange, off-Maya, Rizal, Makati
+ P 3,000,000 / 72. sm = 41.67k psm : 185-C, 27th Ave, East Rembo, Makati

Compare :
Colliers Q4= 500k psm : At Q4-2015, Philippines Report

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Is there a BUBBLE in Philippines Property? :
 
0Iqg6Xp.jpg
===============================================

LAND Prices & CYCLES in Greater Manila may (should?) peak in 2016 or 2017

ALI / AyalaLand ... all-data : 10-yr : 5-yr : 2-yr : 6-mos :

Ra4Sw2V.gif

( 2002/2003 + 14 years = 2016/2017 Expected Peak. based on the 18 year Cycle)

 

Max Keiser Interviews Fred Harrison (2012)

 

"The biggest gains are in Land" in rising market (and biggest drops in a falling market)

The 18 year Cycle Explained

 

Mak,Prime GEI's 18-yr Cycles thread : http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=19927

The Three Drivers of Property Prices : https://youtu.be/FexeVO0wpf8

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A BELLWETHER, which sometimes gives an early warning - PH Developer share prices

 

ALI / Ayalaland's share price reflects the 18-year cycle - which is normally 14-years up, and 4-years down

... All-Data : 5-yrs : 3-yrs : 6-mos : 10-d

/ fewer-lines

hRMUrTD.gif

 

(in edit: UPDATE ... 3-year chart - Is ALI peaking at/ near P42 again?): Last update: PHP 41.85 at 7/20/17

4km5w4m.gif

 

Shares could give an advance warning of market turns, typically 6-12 months ahead, but sometimes concurrently.

In fact, Rents and Prices in Makati have been falling since the beginning of 2016

 

Sym. / Developer === CHART LINKS:

ALI - / AyalaLand ....... All-Data : 5-yrs : 3-yrs : 6-mos : 10-d

MEG / Megaworld .... All-Data : 5-yrs : 3-yrs : 6-mos : 10-d

Popi / Prime Orient .. All-Data : 5-yrs : 3-yrs : 6-mos : 10-d

CPG / Century Prop . All-Data : 5-yrs : 3-yrs : 6-mos : 10-d

SMph/SM PrimeHld . All-Data : 5-yrs : 3-yrs : 6-mos : 10-d

 

ALI +etc ... 12mos-chart

5-yrs : 2yrs : 6mos // 10-d : ALI : MEG : SMPH : CPG : POPI :

j6yTElo.gif

 

Summary at 7/21/2016:
ALI - / Ayalaland - : Yr-H: $40.80 : 7/21 : $39.90 : Off H: - 2.21% :: P/E: 32.18 : Earns: P1.240
MEG / Megaworld : Yr-H: $05.15 : 7/21 : $05.09 : Off H: - 1.36% :: P/E: 15.61 : Earns: P0.326

(in edit):

Stock Summary at 10/13/16:
ALI - / Ayalaland - : Yr-H: $42.15 : 10/13 : $36.40 : Off H: -13.65% :: P/E: 28.56 : Earns: P1.27
MEG / Megaworld : Yr-H: $05.51 : 10/13 : $04.11 : Off H: -25.41% :: P/E: 12.48 : Earns: P0.33
Popi / PrimeOrion : Yr-H: $02.28 : 10/13 : $01.92 : Off H: -15.79% :: P/E: - n/a - : Earns: P -nil -
CPG / Cent.PrpGr : Yr-H: $0.780 : 10/13 : $0.570 : Off H: -26.93% :: P/E: 6.364 : Earns: P0.090

Stock Summary at 07/20/17:
ALI - / Ayalaland - : Yr-H: P42.40 : 07/19 : P41.70 : Off H: -01.65% :: P/E: 28.18 : Earns: P1.48
Smph/ SM PrimeH : Yr-H: P35.20 : 07/19 : P34.50 : Off H: -01.99% :: P/E: 40.59 : Earns: P0.85
MEG / Megaworld : Yr-H: P05.51 : 07/19 : P04.75 : Off H: -13.80% :: P/E: 13.12 : Earns: P0.36
Popi / PrimeOrion : Yr-H: P02.45 : 07/19 : P02.21 : Off H: -09.80% :: P/E: - n/a - : Earns: P -nil -
CPG / Cent.PrpGr: Yr-H: P0.780 : 07/19 : P0.650 : Off H: -16.67% :: P/E: 10.66 : Earns: P0.061

 

(So far, it seems we are seeing good, high stock valuations in mid-July )

 

/ added in Edit /

Chinatown related developers are looking Toppy now - early Dec.2017

ALI-etc AyalaLand etc -- update

ca2KM65.gif

==

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Makati's advantages: Megaworld reveals more facts, more figures

(in the advert for San Antonio Residence in today's Manila Bulletin)

Living in Makati... is great for those who work there too.
+ can deliver savings: On Time, and Fuel for the many people who work there

"Every ten minutes you leave your car idle, you are losing between 0.1 and 0.6 liters of fuel . And if fuel costs Php 41 a liter, that's Php 24.60 per hour. If you multiple that by the extra 700 hours that commuters spend in traffic, that translates to at least P17,220 wasted on fuel alone! Those living in Makati can avoid wasting that much money."

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Spend more, Save more, More efficiently - in the Philippines

The Philippines New president announced his plans in his first State Of the Nation Address, and the plans were a big hit.

The borrowing cost on 7-year Philippines Treasury notes showed an impressive drop of 44.5 basis points from 3.461 to 3.016 percent on P 44.7 billion. These lower costs are a vote of confidence in Roderick Duterte and his polices, which are being accepted as pro-business. One of the main areas of focus is to improve the country's inefficient infrastructure. The capital city of Manila is choked with traffic jams, and these will be addressed by taking some temporary emergency powers in the hands of the state, to make some dramatic changes, and on improving the rail infrastructure.

New trains will be ordered, and new rail lines built. There is also a plan to privatize the public transit system.

This has been a long time in coming, and these projects have the potential to boost the efficiency of the Philippines economy, at a time when it is experiencing rapid growth. Increased global confidence in the country and lower interest rates will help assure the country can get the capital it need to boost infrastructure spending.

If the lower rates spill over into the property sector, it should help boost demand at a time, when there is a large amount of new properties scheduled for completion in Makati and BGC over the next 2-3 years
- Makati Prime

 

Side Comment:

I can recall a friend in the Philippines saying how much he hated the Slogan: "It's more fun in the Philippines."

That's not a good slogan, he said, what we need to aim for is not more fun, but lower crime and greater efficiency.

With Duterte as President maybe a refocus is finally happening, I say as I think about the above news

==== ====

 

SSC thread : Philippines Real Estate, Housing and Construction

 

The mods have been moving around many posts.

Some of the very BEST POSTS from the Gentry thread, have been moved to the thread above

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Why Makati is a walkable city you should live in
Philippine Star-1 Jun 2016
... to go for a morning jog, an evening run or a fun walk with your dog in Makati. ... Three MRT lines—Buendia Avenue, Ayala Avenue and Magallanes ... to give a more enhancing experience to pedestrians,” said Dave Balangue, ... Gil Puyat St.) and Three Central (a 51-storey development along Valero St.).

5cm8XGy.gif

/ the home of 50 skyscrapers /

MANILA, Philippines – One of the most important things that every home buyer considers is location. And it should matter now whether the chosen neighborhood is a walkable one, a quality that people look for and real estate developers aim for these days.

There are a lot of good things about walkable cities. There are health benefits proven by several studies. Walkable cities also help the environment as they omit hazardous automobile use, resulting in less harmful emissions and better air quality. They are also money-saving because people won’t always have to take public transportation or spend on gas.

One of the most walkable communities in the country today is the Makati Central Business District (CBD), and here are some reasons why acquiring a home here is highly advantageous:

 

Green spaces for a healthier lifestyle

jogging-walkable-city.jpg

Cities that aim to make walking as the main mode of transportation naturally promote a healthier lifestyle for their residents.

 

A 2014 study found out that interconnected streets, which make walking convenient, are directly associated with reduced rates of heart disease, obesity, high blood pressure and diabetes. So, if you’re a health buff or even an aspiring one, Makati CBD is the place for you.

With well-groomed green spaces, paved sidewalks and safe pedestrian lanes, you won’t have any excuse not to go for a morning jog, an evening run or a fun walk with your dog in Makati. Some of the favorite spots here for these activities are the Ayala Triangle Gardens, Salcedo Village’s Jaime Velasquez Park and Legaspi Village’s own Legazpi Active Park.

 

Pedestrian-oriented

The transportation system in Makati CBD is one of the most modern in the country. There are shuttle terminals all over the district that can take passengers to different cities in and even outside the metro.

Three MRT lines—Buendia Avenue, Ayala Avenue and Magallanes stations—are also directly connected to Makati where most professionals ride in and out. There are also E-jeepneys, buses and taxis that are easily accessible, not to mention the designated and secure unloading and loading stations.

Aside from keeping efficient transportation hubs, Makati also promotes walking as a means to experience the city. In 2015, it worked with big brands like Nestle, Shell, Security Bank and RCBC to paint murals on selected underpasses in the district.

 

“Beyond aesthetics, we want to promote Makati as a livable city and to give a more enhancing experience to pedestrians,” said Dave Balangue, president of Makati Commercial Estate Association (MaCEA), in a press conference.

These colorful underpasses now make everyday walks for many pedestrians more pleasant.

makati-underpass-walkable-city.jpg

Rise of live-work-play-learn neighborhoods

With the proximity of several offices, learning institutions, restaurants, shopping centers and entertainment hubs to each other in Makati, it’s enjoyable to establish a lifestyle where you can conveniently and leisurely live, work, play and learn.

 

MORE Makati in the numbers:

makati-numbers-infographic-megaworld.jpg

In the last quarter of 2015, real estate services firm C.B. Richard Ellis (CBRE) Philippines said in their Metro Manila Market View report that Makati is one of the top prime locations for condominium investment given its proximity to major commercial districts.

==

> MORE: http://www.philstar.com/arts-and-culture/2016/05/31/1572798/why-makati-walkable-city-you-should-live

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Suggestions: How Makati can cope with its Traffic challenges

 

Some of these may come, and help improve the quality of life in Makati

 

Traffic management : Incentives to leave, Disincentives to enter
Congestion charging during peak hours may be done starting with tollways and other highways entering Metro Manila. Peak-hour rates could be double the price. On the other hand, exiting Metro Manila should be discounted or even free of charge. Congestion charging on urban roads and streets during peak hours can also be done. This will encourage people to leave their private vehicles behind, when walking, biking, or taking mass or public transport are the more convenient and practical options.

 

Open up the gated communities and gated military camps parallel to EDSA to alleviate traffic. Some private roads have already been opened to the public, including Orbit Street in Bel-Air Village 2, F. Zobel Street in San Miguel Village, and Wilson Street in Greenhills. Rockwell Drive and other roads in Rockwell Center are open to the public to alleviate traffic on the stretch of EDSA, between Estrella St. and Sen. Gil Puyat Ave.

These gated communities and gated military camps may opt to increase the price of car stickers that will enable private vehicles to pass through their gates. Revenue from the car stickers can subsidize the installation of CCTV cameras, which will address security concerns. Road resurfacing and maintenance can also be done.

Increase parking charges during peak hours.

. . .

Traffic engineering : A new pedestrian walkway for all of EDSA?
Improvement of geometric design of intersections.

Improvement of pedestrian facilities. Previously, I proposed to have an elevated walkway the whole length of EDSA. I observed that it is much faster to walk during peak hours, especially on a payday Friday.

Pedestrian bridges across Pasig River every 800 meters will encourage more walking and biking trips.

Complete the plan for major thoroughfares in 1945, including Circumferential Road – 6 (C-6). In Palafox Associates, we also proposed to add more that will be a total of 10 circumferential roads.

Transportation planning
Implement recommendations of MMETROPLAN, including all eight proposed lines of Light Rail Transit. In 1984, we had one of the best LRTs in the world.

Mass transit like bus operations should be clean, safe, convenient, and on-schedule.

==

> http://www.manilatimes.net/transport-traffic-and-land-use-planning-recommendations/264162/

 

Could this post be accurate?:

"I think I saw a notice along Buendia announcing the start of the construction of pedestrian overpass sa kanto ng Ayala. Seriously?! Pumayag Ayala?! "

==

> source: http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=1699729&page=16

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TRUMP Tower - Topping at last... the Crown Jewel of Century City

The 2nd Tallest building in the Philippines at 280M : Tallest Top 20 List.

.

xPMPDc4.jpg

 

But where is the developer of the Tower, Century Property Group, headed?

CPG / Century Property Group ... All : 12-mos / CPG thread on Mak-Prime

iALmtVX.gif

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Ayala has pioneered 3-year Homestarter Bonds:

(As described in today's Philippines Daily Inquirer):

Ayala Land raising P 10 Billion
ALI will be raising P 10 Billion to refinance older debt paper.
Includes P 3 bn of Homestarter bonds, with a tenor of three years:
+ Targeting retail investors, who want to set aside money for full or partial downpayments on ALI properties
+ Bondholders will earn a bonus credit - giving them a discount on the net selling price of properties
+ They will be able to apply principle and interest (net of taxes) to purchase properties
+ Partner banks will make a market for those who want to sell early
+ Previous similar bonds were available in min. of P50,000, with P10,000 increments to max. of P 5 mn

The remaining P 7 billion will be raised in a 10 year bond with a fixed rate of 4.75% per annum

ALI is paying a cash dividend of P 0.238 per sh, bringing full year dividends to P 0.476, a 15% rise from last year

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Not hugely positive (for Residential) - the new Colliers Q3 Report:

 

What Colliers is expecting over the Next 12 months to Q3-2017:
+ A -5.4% drop in Makati Residential Rents (vs. -4.9% in Rockwell, -5.8% in BGC)
+ A -5.3 % drop in Makati Residential Capital values (vs. -4.8% in Rockwell, -5.8% in BGC)

But also Improvements in Rents and Capital values for the Commercial / Office segment.
========

 

Colliers has some ideas about how PH developers can cope with Over-supply

 

Residential rental rates continue to soften across major business districts. Rates in Makati CBD dropped by 1.2% to PHP858 per sq m a month from PHP869 per sq. / Mean rents dropped from X to Y
The decline is slower than the 1.6% drop recorded in 1Q 2016, reflecting slow absorption amid lack of new completions. Rents also dropped in Fort Bonifacio (-1.5%) and Rockwell (- 0.4%). Colliers sees the continued decline in rental rates given the additional 10,000+ units slated for completion for the remainder of the year in the major CBDs. Over the next twelve months Colliers sees rental rates in Makati CBD, Fort Bonifacio, and Ortigas Center declining between 4% and 7%. With these trends, condominium investors whose units are now being completed face a very challenging rental market environment. In order to assist their unit buyers in achieving their expected rental yields, residential condominium developers should explore creative rental arrangements.

 

Demand for worker accomodation units
Colliers believes that the need to explore a creative lease model is needed as investors face an increasingly challenging rental environment. We recommend that developers look into worker accommodation projects to cater to the highly-mobile young urban professionals who can’t afford to own their own apartment yet or rent a condominium unit within the established business districts such as Makati, Fort Bonifacio, and Ortigas Center. These halfway residential units are for professionals who want to live near their place of work during weekdays but go home to their families‘ suburban areas during weekends.
lcUeVu7.jpg
The Makati property market now favors owners of Office Space, since Office Rents are still rising.
The worker-accomodation units are also more practical for employees working in CBDs as the worsening traffic in Metro Manila only makes their commute to and from work more unbearable. But developers must ensure that the worker-accomodation projects have amenities similar to condominium developments in the CBDs to entice more users. Since they are targeting millennials they should apportion amenities and facilties such as gyms, retail shops and lounges with fast broadband internet connection. In light of falling occupancy rates in the CBDs, it may be prudent for developers with projects under construction within and outside the CBDs to organize their own leasing arms in order to assist their buyers to lease out their units and attain the yields that they were promised. For developers that have significant ready -for- occupancy (RFO) units, leasing out these units either individually or maybe even as shared units may make sense, as long as it does not conflict with the market positioning of the property and does not lead to a deterioration of its perceived value.

==

> source, end of the Q3-2016 report: http://www.colliers.com/-/media/3q2016_residential_report.pdf

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Makati's plan for a P 1 Billion : BUS Rapid Transit System

Summary of a story which appeared in today's Manila Bulletin
Key Points:

========
+ A business group, Makati Commercial Estate Assoc. (MACEA), whose member own comm'l buildings in Makati has submitted a plan to the govt for a P 1 Bn BRT system. The plan involves private financing under a Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) arrangement
+ The first step is to get approval at the local and national levels
0nJiD7u.jpg

 

+ There is a plan a BRT route with six underground stations, starting at the corner of EDSA and Ayala Avenues
+ From there, it would go down Ayala Avenue, and turn left at Gil Puyat Ave. (Buendia), and continue on to end at the Buendia station, also called Taft Ave. on LRT-1, Light Rail line.

+ It would utilize existing buses, and the space presently given over to the center islands along Ayala Ave.
+ It will connect with the larger BRT system for Greater Manila has already been approved, and is now arranging financing
+ MACEA's plans also include spending on pedestrian facilities in Makati. P 497M has already been spent, and the works include the 305 meter extension of the DelaRosa walkway, which opened on Monday (yesterday)

A key source of this information was: Manuel Blas II, VP within the strategic landbank mgmt group of Ayalaland

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JLL MILDLY BULLISH on Residential, Not Bearish (Yet)

 

The vertical segment of the residential market is expected to continue growing “in the next few quarters” although

the upcoming supply should keep prices from increasing, according to the report, titled “Persistent Growth Despite Large New Supply.”

 

The JLL Report for Q3-2016 is Mildly Bullish, with stats more positive than those in the Colliers Report for the same quarter.

For instance, they show Capital Values for Luxury properties in BGC and Makati RISING by +1.6% from the previous quarter.

 

EWWRSuQ.png

Historical-: Colliers : Mak. / - JLL : :
======= : Mak-Mid: Rent/ AveFour= Mak.Mid : Mak. Hi. / BGC.Mid : BGC.Hi. : Mid-R :
Q4-2015 : 151,300 : 883 / 153,875 = 125,000 : 197,500 / 128,500 : 164,500 : P925 :
Q1-2016 : 152,000 : 865 / 158,500 = 127,500 : 200,000 / 137,500 : 169,000 : P900 :
Q2-2016 : 147,575 : 855 / 160,000 = 125,000 : 210,000 / 138,500 : 166,500 : P960 :
Q3-2016 : 146,485 : 840 / 163,375 = 129,500 : 215,000 / 142,500 : 166,500 : P988

 

Summary Q3-16

============ Low -High : Rent /L/ Low- High : CapVal. /Yield% : Vac.%

Makati midrge.: P600-1000 : P800 /M/ 105k-154k : P129.5k/ 7.41% :
" " high-end-- : P710-1760 : 1235 /M/ 170k-260k : P215.0k / 6.89% : 4.0%

BGC----------- : P600-1000 : P800 /B/ 105k-180k : P142.5k / 6.74% :
" " high-end-- : P710-1760 : 1235 /B/ 145k-188k : P166.5k / 8.90% :
Ortigas /Man. : P360-P680 : P520 /O/ P82k-145k : P113.5k / 5.50% :
Alabang ------ : P520-P910 : P715 /A/ P86k-115k : P100.5k / 8.54% :
Quezon City-- : P420-P690 : P555 /Q/ P78k-120k : P 99.0k / 6.72% :
Change Q2>Q3
BGC/Makati : CapV-Lux: 187.8>190.8k*: + 1.6% / Vac. 6.3%>4.0%

 

> MORE, post#44 : http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=20877&page=3

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Expert opinion for 2017: BUY OFFICE, Sell Residential property

 

Report Summary
Sector: -BUY : -Hold : -SELL / NetBuy
Residential
2015 : 27.3% : 56.8% : 15.9% / 11.4%, #4
2016 : 25.0% : 60.4% : 14.6% / 10.4%, #6
2017 : 28.6% : 00.0% : 71.4% /-42.8%, #9 : Big MINUS Rating!
Office
2015 : 21.5% : 59.8% : 18.7% / 02.8%, #13
2016 : 37.1% : 48.4% : 14.5% / 22.6%, #4
2017 : 85.7% : 00.0% : 14.3% / 71.4%, #1

 

For 2017, a vast majority of the respondents—marking the highest ratios in the last five years—gave a "buy" rating for four of the five segments: industrial/distribution, office, retail and hotel. The only exception is residential apartments, where an equally overwhelming majority is recommending a "sell" rating.

===

> see details, post#49 :
http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=20877&page=3&do=findComment&comment=343335

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Manila has completed is "Museum Precinct"

 

Taft Avenue at Rizal park is now considered Manila's Museum district

t0121toti_2.jpg

 

A heritage building there used used by the Dept. of Tourism has been retrofitted as the Museum of Natural History.

This is added to the National Museum of Fine Art (where the senate used to meet), and the National Museum of Anthropology (former Dept. of Finance).

 

The newly retrofitted building, was a beaux-art masterpiece by architect Antonio Toledo. The original design has been restored

 

The Museum will open in mid-2017, and will showcase Filipino culture, amid a world-class setting.

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threads: / DATA : Tips : Diary : Rent : Office : Circuit : Arca : Quez : rail : chi'tn : cGate : Jazz : Bubl : Ads : ssc ;

 

What is the "REAL" market price ?

To me, the real market is not what the developers get, when they price a hot new launch -

It is the RESALE market, if it can be confirmed by RENTAL yields

 

WY7PdNw.jpg

 

Because after all - to book a profit on your investment, you need to EARN the yield, and eventually EXIT your investment be selling your property in the Resale market.

YOU the owner will never get paid, based on what the developers can achieve using all their marketing prowess during the pre-selling period.

 

(Here's part of a post I just added to the Bubble thread)

 

It is now officially a two-tier market:

+ the developers get a much higher price, by offering finance and selling properties through their "marketing machines"

+ secondhand resellers get a lower price, because the handful of cash buyers are seeing many bargains, and there is much competition among sellers chasing those few cash buyers willing to pull the trigger

 

The Losers may be those who pay the high prices for "hot new launches", since they may never achieve expected cash yields.

With the high and rising vacancy rates, rents are likely to be lower than "promised" or expected for at least 1-2 years, maybe longer.

Might a headline story about falling secondhand prices, cause even Primary (new) sales prices to get hit - if buyers back off?

 

(An excerpt of a post from the DATA thread):

 

A DISCONTINUITY in Capital Values : Moving from Apples to expensive Fruit salad ?

 

BUYERS of new properties look set for disappointing yields (when their properties are completed)

 

There is a major discontinuity in the data that Colliers is now reporting for Capital Values, and it may be masking a drop in secondhand like-for-like prices for a single property owned in the real world.

 

The problem is that Colliers want to accommodate the much higher prices being achieved on new luxury launches, so reported prices have been "stretched" to the upside to include these new luxury properties. So in some way, we are moving from comparing the old "apples" with new "luxury fruit salad", making it meaningless to try to use the Colliers data as an indication of how the price of a particular property is performing over time. Even as these Colliers values are being pushed higher, I am hearing several anecdotal reports that secondhand resale prices have been dropped - and that the resale market for completed properties is very soft now. Perhaps it is down in line with falling rents - now some 6% below the highs of 2nd-half 2015. And someone who is in a hurry to sell may have to accept an even larger discount.

 

> http://www.colliers.com/-/media/files/marketing%20reports/4q2016_colliers_quarterly_residential.pdf

 

Qtr/ Year : Mak-Mid. QonQtr : Yr.onYr. / Low - Makati - H / Low -Bonfacio- H / Low -Rockwell- H /

4Q /2015 : 151,300 : +0.20% : + 4.71 % : 106,400- 196,200 : 114,700 - 185,400 : 121,700 - 202,100 :
1Q /2016 : 152,000 : +0.46% : + 3.16 % : 107,000- 197,000 : 115,000 - 185,000 : 121,700 - 202,100 :
2Q /2016 : 147,575 : - 2.91% : - 0.96 % : 103,770- 191,380 : 111,760 - 180.760 : 120,390 - 200,040 :
3Q /2016 : 146,485 : - 0.74% : - 2.99 % : 103,010- 189,960 : 109.790 - 177,580 : 119,090 - 197,870 :
===
3Q /2016 : 145.4ka*: - Not/A : - N/Avail. : 103.0 - 187.8a / 145.4k :
4Q /2016 : 150.6Ka* - Not/A : - N/Avail. : 109.0 - 192.2a / 150.6k :

===
3Q /2016 : 176,150 : - Not/A : - N/Avail. : 084,000- 268,300x70% : 097,200- 222,200 : 170,800 - 206,300 :
4Q /2016 : 191,800 : - 0,00% : - N/Avail. : 109,000- 274,600x70% : 110,500 - 226,400 : 188,400 - 207,700 :
Qtr/Year : Mak-Mid. QonQtr : Yr.onYr. / Low- Makati - H/ adjust / Low-Bonfacio- H / Low-Rockwell- H /
========

 

I have adjusted the new data, so that it is more comparable with what was reported before.

My adjustment is to multiply the new high-end price by 70% and then average it with the low-end price. The result for Q-2016 was P 150,600 which is only 2.8% above the P 146,485 reported for Q3-2016. I will have to monitor this adjustment for a few quarters before I will have any real confidence in this adjustment. But I do not think it would be meaningful to push my chart values up from P146.5K to P191.8K (that is +30.6%), since I do not think that anyone has seen appreciation like that in an actual Condo that they own.

 

I find this comment to be very telling:

"Take-up in Metro Manila’s residential secondary market remains soft amid the influx of new supply across submarkets."

. . .

 

Here's more evidence of buyer's abandonment of a traditional focus on cash yields. Do they even realise that rents are falling?. I reckon some Colliers clients who do consider yields in their investment criteria have begun to complain. And Colliers would like to see the developers address this so investors will not be too disappointed :

"Given the falling occupancy rates in CBDs, it would practical for developers with projects under construction within and outside the established business districts to organize their own leasing arms in order to assist their buyers to lease out their units and attain the promised yields"

In other words, buyers are going to be sorely disappointed with the returns they make after completion, unless the developers do a better job at marketing to end tenants the virtues of these expensive new properties. Right now, the landlords are mostly "on their own" or working with a handful of agents who specialize on prime tenants (like expats seeking well loacted 2BR and 3BR flats). One wonders if there are enough good tenants to go around to maintain decent yields and a balanced market?. Colliers is now separating the market into PRIME areas within the main CBD, and Fringe areas with "10-15% lower rents", where Filipinos may rent smaller places as "halfway houses" to have easily access to their places of work, and avoid the massive traffic congestion

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EXCERPT from the Bubble thread

========

Filipinos are telling themselves there is NO Property Bubble - but look at this:

 

80% Balloons? Gasp!

And I worry about M-Bay

 

I guess the primary market of selling at 10% or 20% spread over 48 months (if 5mn pesos then only need to pay 10k pesos monthly) seems like an interesting option for a lot of buyers. Not sure if they need to apply for the 80% balloon payment immediately or whether this is done a few months prior to the completion (40th month onwards?).

 

Are there any consequences for buyers who walk away during the 48months if they can't resell their contract to sale? Treat the purchase as a 4-year call option. The disconnect in prices between primary and secondary is very significant to ignore.


Another issue I have with the primary sales market is that their congratulations sellout messages followed by price hike...

 

Here's the very big problem with Big Balloons: Banks are getting more cautious, and most are saying that a 60% Loan is the most they are willing to entertain, unless the borrower has excellent credit. So the big crunch is going to come when the buyer discovers in 2-3-4 years time, that he cannot finance the entire balloon, and needs to find maybe 20% or more of the price to make that last payment. He may then try to sell on his contract, and find no buyers - and have to surrender the contract back to the developer - ie walkaway from his "call" option. Up until now, I don't think developers have chased the defaulting buyers for more money - but that may change in the future if developers lose money on these deals

 

The buyer default risk is not going to hit the more conservative developers like Ayala very hard, because they are now structuring their sales with 60% or smaller balloons. Some of the other developers like Megaworld, SM, or Century may prefer to make the (partial?) sale now and get the sale on their books, and then worry about the potential default risk later.

 

Until now, developers have been able offload most of the flats that they get back through buyer default at a higher price - so they may now be complacent about the risk. the problem is, as THE GAP between High prices and Lower rents gets bigger and bigger, it will be much harder for developers to offload those defaulted units at a price that keeps them whole.

 

I am beginning to think that the BIGGEST BUST will come in the Manila bay area (and maybe small pockets like Century city.)

 

In Manila Bay, I think you will find a oonjunction of these three negative factors:

Huge incoming supply, lower quality developers offering aggressive finance, and (maybe) low quality buyers availing big balloons.

 

The Supply increases for M-Bay are pretty shocking:

-

UNITS---- : --Stock-- : Estimated completions--------- : Next3yr : + Pct. :
Location: End 2016 : -2017- + pct. : -2018 : -2019 : End2019
BGC / Fort : 24,275 // 8,566: +35.3% : 3,858 : 3,022 / 39,721 : + 63.6%
Makati CBD: 21,633 // 4,784: +22.1% : 1,072 : 0,598 / 28,087 : + 29.8%
Ortigas -----: 16,250 // 1,489: +9.16% : 0,782 : 0,570 / 19,091 : + 17.5%
Manila Bay: 8,864 // 5,507: +62.1% : 8,531 : 2,614 / 25,516 : + 188.%
Rockwell--- : 4,159 // 0,346: +8.32% : 0,492 : 0,269 / 5,266 : + 26.6%
=========
Top5 Areas : 75,181 / 20,694: +27.5%: 14,735: 7,073/ 117,683: + 56.5%
Other GrM. : 15,603 // 2,198: +14.1%: 0,824: 0,632 / 19,257 : + 23.4%
Gtr. Manila : 90,784 / 22,890: +25.2%: 15,559: 7,705/ 136,940: + 50.0%
==
. . .
Residential Opportunities flagged by Colliers:
+ 6.6 million foreign visitors (+11% in 2016) are fueling demand for AirBNB spaces
+ 18 million domestic tourists are driving demand for short term leases of condos
+ So far, the estimated 1 million OFW's who make short term visits are not big users of AirBNB
+ Demand for luxury condos remains strong, and some building claim 90-95% vacancies
(However, if you observe lights at night, many wealthy "owner occupiers" may spend most of their time in other locations

- this confirmed by a friend with a unit in TRAG.)
+ (Smaller) condos in fringe areas, may be at least 10-15% cheaper (to rent) and can serve as halfway houses for those with long commutes
==

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REAL LIFE is not like the comic books, unfortunately !

 

aiga_symbol_signs_clip_art_16439.jpg

"Rents escalate at" (a predictable annual rate) - REALLY?

 

EXCERPT from a new posting on the PH Bubble thread

 

Here's the narrative that was fed to potential investors back a few years ago...

.

"- According to Colliers International, the average rental rate for 1BR unit in Makati is Php30,000 per month 2BR units are roughly around Php60,000 – Php80,000.

- Rental Rates Escalate at 10% per year.

- The average monthly amortization for 1BR units at XXX is at Php24,000 per month, 2BR units is at Php 43,000.

- By the time the unit is delivered to the client, the average rental rate would escalate to at least Php45,000 per month for a 1BR unit.

- Rough Estimate of Profit will be: Rental Rate: Php45,000, Amortization: (Php24,000), Monthly Profit: Php21,000"

. . .

BTW, here is what has ACTUALLY happened to Rents.

Where's that 10% annual gain in rents that was promised?

-

RENTALS : Makati, Bonifacio, Rockwell

Qtr /Year : CapVal.: Yield%: MMidpt: QonQtr : YonYr / Lo - Makati - H / L-Bonfacio-H / L-Rockwell- H /

4Q /2012 : 118.0k : 7.32% : 0,720 : +1.69% : +7.0E% / 0,525 - 0,915 / 0,570 - 0,865 / 0,686 - 0,912 :

4Q /2013 : 134.9k : 7.16% : 0,805 : +0.63% : +11.8% / 0,550 - 1,060 / 0,610 - 1,010 / 0,720 - 1,020 :

4Q /2014 : 144.5k : 6.96% : 0,838 : +0.96% : +4.10% / 0,575 - 1,100 / 0,640 - 1,045 / 0,750 - 1,055 :

4Q /2015 : 151.0k : 7.02% : 0,883 : +0.91% : +5.37% / 0,600 - 1,166 / 0,688 - 1,094 / 0,814 - 1,094 :

4Q /2016 : 150.6E : 6.61%: 0,830 : - 1.20 %: - 6.00 % / 0,560 - 1,100 / 0,640 - 1,026 / 0,780 - 1,070 :

=========

4 years-- : P32.6k : -------- : 0,110 : ---------- : ---------- / P 35 - P185 / P 70 - P159 /

Gain, 4yr: +27.6% : ------- +15.3% :

If 10% pa: P172.8k: ------- : 1,054 :

.

If we go back to 4Q-2012 and escalate at 10%. rents today should be a P 1,054 psm.

The actual is P 830 psm - that's a - 21.3% shortfall ! The actual annual gains average < 4 % pa.

And now rents are actually FALLING thanks to oversupply.

 

Keep this real-life example in mind, the next time you hear an agent tossing out glib assumptions about future market conditions. Who really knows? And who does he serve by feeding you overly optimistic assumptions? Not the investor, who pays money and has to live with the future uncertainty. The agent keeps his/her commission even when the assumptions were wildly wrong, like in this case.

==

> more, on "half-baked assumptions" : http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=20877&page=4&do=findComment&comment=345664

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Philippines, plenty of borrowing capacity, to fuel infrastructure Build-outs

 

I was a little surprised how GOOD the Debt figures now look for the Philippines
====
Government Debt to GDP : 42% (end 2016)
Household Debt to GDP-- : 9 % (end 2016)
That combined total of --- : 51% is very low, and shows there is plenty of room to borrow for infrastructure improvements
==

DEBT to GDP
Compare with other countries:
Country tot'l 2013 / Govt.: HseHD : Total-2016

Japan------- : ???? / 250% + 62% = 312%

USA--------- : 123% / 104% + 79% = 183%
Singapore - : 105% / 105% + 62% = 167%
Euro Area-- : ????? / 91 % + 59% = 150%
Malaysia---- : 140% / 53 % + 89% = 142%
OECD aver. : 134% /
Thailand--- : ? 53% / 44 % + 71% = 115%
Hong Kong : ????? / 32 % + 67% = 99 %

China, PRC : ????? / 44 % + 43% = 87 %
Philippines : ??? / 42 % + 9 % = 51 %
Indonesia-- : 38 % / 27 % + 17% = 44 %

==========
> http://www.tradingeconomics.com/hong-kong/indicators
> http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=18811&page=14

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Yes! There are dense.

I hope they have good elevators at The Rise and Air Residences

 

Air Residences' 74-75 units per floor is correct. The rise has about 55 per floor, in comparison.

Air%2BPresentation%2B-%2BReleased%2BTo%2

 

> For photos and more info, see Citygate area thread: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=21029

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