The Most important election in US History?

[drbubb]

"Interesting abuse of polling by CNN "

CNN Rigs Its Own Poll AGAIN to Claim Clinton Won the Debate

Democrats oversampled, poll contradicted by consensus that Trump won big

Yes.

These Lies are being spread around the world.

I honestly think that CNN should be Torched:

Loses its license, go bankrupt, and fire their Reporters

This media outlet does not serve the public, it serves corrupt elites

 

Lying Media is everywhere - even in the Philippines

 

Can anyone who actually watched the Debate think that Mrs Clinton won it?

 

Philippines Daily Inquirer: Clinton Beat Trump in Second Debate

Tension-filled exchange. Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump and Democratic contender Hillary Clinton

shake hands after their bitter and tension-filled debate in St Louis, Missouri on Sunday night

- Above the fold Image on Pg. 1

 

Continues on pg.11, where they show an an overweight white male cheering in a bar

 

Clinton trounces Trump in second debate

 

Then as evidence they quote a poll from CNN : 57 to 34 percent favoring Clinton

(every other single poll I have seen has Trump winning by that much, or a wider margin - and I WATCHED IT!)

 

These LIES are based on REPORTS From Reuters, and AP (Rothschild controlled agencies?)

[drbubb]

Some great comments here

 

Trump Launches Surgical Strike Against Hillary

 

Published on Oct 10, 2016

Dr. Steve Pieczenik joins the Alex Jones show and outlines what Donald Trump is doing to take down Hillary Clinton.

 

The End of the CIA... and the evil cabal - that Daniel Sheehan has descibed:

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=21008

[rigger]

"Interesting abuse of polling by CNN "

CNN Rigs Its Own Poll AGAIN to Claim Clinton Won the Debate

Democrats oversampled, poll contradicted by consensus that Trump won big

 

And again by Reuters

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-11/first-post-debate-poll-gives-hillary-significant-lead-and-familiar-problem-emerges

'In yet another poll the distribution of the of those questioned leans substantially to the left, as follows:

• Democrat and Democrat leaners 44%
• Republican and Republican leaners 37%
• Independents 12%'

[rigger]

 

Immigration - and why this could be the most crucial election ever

 

"the most successful and fairest culture in the history of the world"

 

In Trump We Trust | Ann Coulter and Stefan Molyneux

Oct. 6th

Comment

Art's 3 hours ago

More than anyone I've ever heard or seen, Stephan M can help summarize a guest's concepts and ideas in ways even the guest could not have created; Ann (like so many of the other guests on this site) is perfectly capable of explaining her thoughts and ideas, yet somehow Stephan can create the words and phrases that better describe their inner selves than even they can. Well, almost anyway. I've just never seen such an outstanding interviewer/commenter/listener and analyst, and I must assume I'm not alone given the interest in this site.

"It's like... we should not have free speech if it hurts someone's feelings"

Ann Coulter reads from her book:

Part 1:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hKdROnEWv-0

Part-2 : Part-3 :

 

Super interview,just listening now.

[drbubb]

Shaun Hannity and Donald Trump do the Job that the MSM refuses to do

 

ASKING CRITICAL QUESTIONS

 

Hannity 10/11/16 | Pence: I Prefer 'Dishonest Hillary' Not Associate with 'Honest Abe'

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hD8A74rED54

 

Published on Oct 11, 2016

Hannity 10/11/16 | Pence: I Prefer 'Dishonest Hillary' Not Associate with 'Honest Abe'
Republican vice presidential candidate Mike Pence told Sean Hannity that he 'respectfully disagrees' with his longtime friend, Speaker Paul Ryan, who recently decided not to actively campaign for Donald Trump.

 

Paul Ryan is another one "owned" by the cabal - Hannity should shun him as the "tool" that he is

[Garincho]

Takes two sides to make a trade viable.

 

Polls are a guide but as Brexit,and GE 2015 showed,they are no more than that as a predictive tool.

 

.I'd vote Trump if I was a US citizen but when it comes to cash I'm unemotional about it.If I thought Hilary was value at 1.4 I'd be backing her.

 

Trump is a risk,I just don't think he's a 3.85 risk.

 

Edit to add

 

If you're right on the 67/33split then I presume you're piling onto HRC at 1.4?

 

Do you think that's value?

 

Trump is now 5/1 at Sky Bet and they let you add this pick to accumulator (most sites don't). Max payout for Political bets is £25k.

 

I think Brexit was about 6/1 or 7/1 a few days before the referendum, it might have been higher.

[mSparks]

Trump is now 5/1 at Sky Bet and they let you add this pick to accumulator (most sites don't). Max payout for Political bets is £25k.

 

I think Brexit was about 6/1 or 7/1 a few days before the referendum, it might have been higher.

Day before was 10/1 on Brexit

[drbubb]

So GBP 2000 will make you GBP 10,000?

 

Sounds attractive to me.

The polls are not honest, and Hillary supporters may not be motivated enough to turnout

 

Just look at the enthusiastic crowds he gets

[Garincho]

So GBP 2000 will make you GBP 10,000?

 

Sounds attractive to me.

The polls are not honest, and Hillary supporters may not be motivated enough to turnout

 

Just look at the enthusiastic crowds he gets

 

Yes you'd get 12000 GBP back so 10000 GBP profit plus the original 2k back. It has gone down to 4/1 on Sky Bet now though.

 

Betfair are offering 5/1 but I'm sure their payout limit on political bets is 10000 GBP. Definitely worth a go IMO and he was as low as 13/8 after Clinton's 9/11 collapse.

 

I use oddschecker to compare odds as they can vary quite wildly on some events and if you're putting accumulators on or a big stake it can make a massive difference. http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2016/winner

[rigger]

 

Trump is now 5/1 at Sky Bet and they let you add this pick to accumulator (most sites don't). Max payout for Political bets is £25k.

 

I think Brexit was about 6/1 or 7/1 a few days before the referendum, it might have been higher.

Brexit in the last month was roughly around the 3 mark ie 2/1 in normal odds.

 

On the day,you briefly could have got 15.

 

Obviously if you got in at that level there would have been plenty of opportunities to lay it off at lower levels.

 

Personally,I've not added to my 3.8 yet,I'm going to wait till nearer the day.3.8 was value until that tape was released.With Trump there's always the potential for more chaos.

 

Having said that,there was an RCP poll with Trump 4 behind in Pennsylvania

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5964.html

 

And one Monday with him one behind in North Carolina.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nc/north_carolina_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson-5951.html

 

my rule for this election is that if Trump is within the margin of error,then he's likely in with a shout.As per Brexit,his voters will vote.If anything the loss of the support of Paul Ryan confirms his anti establishment credentials and may get more non voters.

 

Must be a hard job trying to poll Trump given the likelihood of people to deny supporting him and his probably support from long time/off the radar voters-much like Brexit.

[rigger]

 

Yes you'd get 12000 GBP back so 10000 GBP profit plus the original 2k back. It has gone down to 4/1 on Sky Bet now though.

 

Betfair are offering 5/1 but I'm sure their payout limit on political bets is 10000 GBP. Definitely worth a go IMO and he was as low as 13/8 after Clinton's 9/11 collapse.

 

I use oddschecker to compare odds as they can vary quite wildly on some events and if you're putting accumulators on or a big stake it can make a massive difference. http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2016/winner

There's no limit on betfair.It's like a stock market of speculators.

 

Personally,I use Betfair,as even with their commission the prices are better than the High St bookies(who probably all cover on BF anyway)

[rigger]

So GBP 2000 will make you GBP 10,000?

 

Sounds attractive to me.

The polls are not honest, and Hillary supporters may not be motivated enough to turnout

 

Just look at the enthusiastic crowds he gets

Yep,just like Brexit,he's gained the support of people who want to kick the Washington establishment in the balls.

 

Look at his coalition-people who hate Hilary+people worried about illegal immigration+ gun owners+ people against TIPP and NAFTA+.........etc etc.That's a lot of people.

 

Currently,Trump is 6.4 but my personal view now is that he'll get wider before the election and you'll get even better odds on him winning Ohio,Florida,Penn and North Caro because,pretty much,that's what you're taking a punt on.He's a lot closer-even now-in the key swing states than those odds would imply.

[Garincho]

Brexit in the last month was roughly around the 3 mark ie 2/1 in normal odds.

 

On the day,you briefly could have got 15.

 

Obviously if you got in at that level there would have been plenty of opportunities to lay it off at lower levels.

 

Personally,I've not added to my 3.8 yet,I'm going to wait till nearer the day.3.8 was value until that tape was released.With Trump there's always the potential for more chaos.

 

Having said that,there was an RCP poll with Trump 4 behind in Pennsylvania

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5964.html

 

And one Monday with him one behind in North Carolina.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nc/north_carolina_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson-5951.html

 

my rule for this election is that if Trump is within the margin of error,then he's likely in with a shout.As per Brexit,his voters will vote.If anything the loss of the support of Paul Ryan confirms his anti establishment credentials and may get more non voters.

 

Must be a hard job trying to poll Trump given the likelihood of people to deny supporting him and his probably support from long time/off the radar voters-much like Brexit.

I'd put a small amount on Brexit and was going to add to it, but bottled it after the Jo Cox murder as I was convinced remain would win. I put a bit more on when the 1st results came in but by then the odds were down to 2/1, so I'd missed out.

 

So I'm backing Trump every week as I'll regret it less if he loses than if I don't back him. I don't put big stakes on and usually bet on football which rarely comes in, so I'm just going for this. I am going to look at backing him for certain states too - which one do you think is the best value?

 

Anything could happen with this and the odds will probably increase between now and the election like you say. Hillary's health could swing it if she has another 'episode' - they're mostly keeping her out of public view but obviously can't do this totally so there's always some chance it could happen again.

[rigger]

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/10/12/punters-continue-to-desert-trump-as-do-more-leading-republicans/

 

'The embattled GOP nominee is continuing his fight even though leading Republican figures are in effect disowning him. He’s now as likely to focus his anger on his own party as Hillary Clinton. He’ been particularly venomous about the leading Republican in Congress, Paul Ryan.

Inevitably the betting has continued to move away from him. Just 16 days ago he was a 35% chance on the Betfair exchange – that’s now down to just over 15%.

1. But his following remain enthusiastic and fired up and you can see a post-November 8th scenario when the party leadership is seen as having betrayed the legitimately elected nominee.

For the Republicans the worry is the impact Trump will have on the other elections particularly the fiercely contested battle for it to retain control of the Senate.

At the moment I’m trying to identify new betting opportunities.'

 

 

 

Mike Smithson of PB.com wetting his pants.He previously stated he got on Trump in July.

 

Maybe he's wise,maybe he's not,but it goes to show that you need a strong stomach for betting.

 

Previously with Brexit,I got on a month or two before and held through to the end.I did however,duck out of adding more when 10/1 was available on the day.

 

Trump is not a trade for thee faint hearted but as I alluded earlier,he only needs to be within the margin of error in the swing states for you to get a good run for your money.

 

Fascinating times.

 

DYOR lol.

[rigger]

I'd put a small amount on Brexit and was going to add to it, but bottled it after the Jo Cox murder as I was convinced remain would win. I put a bit more on when the 1st results came in but by then the odds were down to 2/1, so I'd missed out.

 

So I'm backing Trump every week as I'll regret it less if he loses than if I don't back him. I don't put big stakes on and usually bet on football which rarely comes in, so I'm just going for this. I am going to look at backing him for certain states too - which one do you think is the best value?

 

Anything could happen with this and the odds will probably increase between now and the election like you say. Hillary's health could swing it if she has another 'episode' - they're mostly keeping her out of public view but obviously can't do this totally so there's always some chance it could happen again.

All betting carries a risk obviously.

 

I too thought Jo Cox murder was a game changer but stuck to my original trading plan as there were plenty of indicators that the polls were substantially wrong.

 

This is a risky trade but that's why you get 6+ on BF.

 

My plan is trading a straight Trump win.I don't bet on individual states for the simple reason the liquidity isn't there and I'm struggling to be able to square the action in state polling which carries some inconsistencies.Trump's win could come in a variety of forms-if it comes at all.He could well lose.

 

fascinating threads on here without all the weak kneed liberal types from PB.com.

 

edit to add I do not see a trump win as guaranteed

[Garincho]

There's no limit on betfair.It's like a stock market of speculators.

 

Personally,I use Betfair,as even with their commission the prices are better than the High St bookies(who probably all cover on BF anyway)

 

The Betfair Exchange has no limit and this is worth keeping an eye on as you can sometimes get mental odds on there. At 1 point Biden was 300/1 on there and the best you could fine with other bookies was 100/1. The only issues are that you don't get the stake back and you can only back what other people have layed, so with some of the less popular events you can't stake much.

 

It doesn't affect Trump too much though as there's currently £648 available to back at 6.6 and £4863 at 6.4, and more will be coming in anyway so you could put it on and wait for it to be matched.

 

The Betfair Sportsbook has the payout limits but you get your stake back. The odds don't go as nuts though as it's basically a standard bookie.

 

[Garincho]

All betting carries a risk obviously.

 

I too thought Jo Cox murder was a game changer but stuck to my original trading plan as there were plenty of indicators that the polls were substantially wrong.

 

This is a risky trade but that's why you get 6+ on BF.

 

My plan is trading a straight Trump win.I don't bet on individual states for the simple reason the liquidity isn't there and I'm struggling to be able to square the action in state polling which carries some inconsistencies.Trump's win could come in a variety of forms-if it comes at all.He could well lose.

 

fascinating threads on here without all the weak kneed liberal types from PB.com.

 

edit to add I do not see a trump win as guaranteed

 

I don't think it's guaranteed either, they could try anything to stop him. But there's enough chance of him winning for this to be a good punt, especially with the odds increasing.

 

I'm hoping Wikileaks are saving the best until last as people have a short memory and if they have something really damaging, releasing it in early November would be the best play.

[mSparks]

since you are talking about betting. I really should point out a couple very big differences between Brexit and the US presidential election.

 

Firstly, Brexit was a straight up vote. when the polls were 50/50 it really was a 50/50 probability with a 10/1 payoff. This is not the case with the US election, because it is a first past the post system with an electoral collage vote outcome that currently heavily favours the democratic party.

 

Secondly, and probably more importantly. with Brexit the overwealming strength of rational argumentation was in favour of Brexit. This is not the case for Trump v Clinton.

 

Thirdly all my own research suggests the msm polls are massively overestimating trumps national support. He has a strong, passionate marginal support. But marginal is exactly that - small. If you want a quick and dirty version of that, compare pro trump youtube reaction video views with pro clinton ones.

[drbubb]

"Thirdly all my own research suggests the msm polls are massively overestimating trumps national support."

 

A very strange idea, like most of mSparks ideas, not backed up any facts or reality

 

Anyway, I have put him back on "holiday" for more than a month, so do not expect him to defend it

[rigger]

Wikileaks starting to drip drip .........

 

 

http://freebeacon.com/politics/emails-podesta-listed-needy-latinos-hillary-call/

'Hillary Clinton’s campaign chairman John Podesta lamented that the campaign needed endorsements from “needy Latinos” and called a former Hispanic governor “a dick,” according to newly released hacked emails.'

 

http://dailycaller.com/2016/10/12/podesta-hacks-shows-clinton-staffers-discussing-which-emails-to-release/

'A March, 2015 email chain shows three Clinton staffers discussing a House subpoena of Mrs. Clinton’s emails. The conversation took place roughly three weeks before a Clinton aide used software called “Bleachbit” to wipe her server clean.'

 

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/oct/12/dems-planned-fool-sanders-supporters-convention/

'

Newly released emails show former Democratic Party officials offering Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign detailed advice on how to trick “self-righteous” supporters of Sen. Bernard Sanders into thinking they won concessions from the party establishment.

In the email released Wednesday by WikiLeaks, former party official Mark Alan Siegel is seen offering a proposal to reduce the role of Democratic superdelegates in future elections. While the proposal was sold to voters as an attempt to make the presidential nominating process more of a grass-roots endeavor, the email raises serious questions about whether the entire effort was just a ploy to satisfy disgruntled Sanders backers.'

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/clinton-campaign-blasts-trumps-scorched-earth-tactics-as-protesters-accuse-her-husband-of-rape/2016/10/12/7b8a6df2-908f-11e6-a6a3-d50061aa9fae_story.html

'As protesters accuse her husband of rape, Clinton blasts Trump’s ‘scorched earth’ tactics'

[rigger]

Rasmussen Clinton +4 national

 

Florida Clinton +4

 

Wisconsin Clinton +7

 

Satisfactory polls imo.

[rigger]

BBC newsnight jsut running Trump's chances down lol........interview with Frank Luntz

 

Luntz was quite sure that Trump won't win and he made the very valid point that if Trump had hidden away for 100 days he'd have walked the election as it would all have been about Hilary.

 

He did say the only way Trump could win was that he was still ahead with working class people.Democrat lady clearly thought Hilary is going to walk it.

[drbubb]

I call BULLSHIT on the BBC !

(it is as bad as the worst media in the USA)

 

This is all about the Media trying the drag a tired old hag across the finish line,

by performing various psy-ops on the people:

 

Trump has had to take on the Clinton team and all her money, the controlled media, and

EVEN THE GOP ELITES - who have crossed over to support Clinton

(Because they know their jobs and futures are at-risk if Trump wins!)

 

> http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=21017

 

It is far from over - the people are waking up fast !

[drbubb]

Rasmussen Clinton +4 national

 

Florida Clinton +4

 

Wisconsin Clinton +7

 

Satisfactory polls imo.

 

Are those polls BEFORE or after the 2nd Debate?

The Hilly-Bush Psy-Op may have worked a few days, but I think it has been exposed now

[rigger]

I call BULLSHIT on the BBC !

(it is as bad as the worst media in the USA)

 

This is all about the Media trying the drag a tired old hag across the finish line,

by performing various psy-ops on the people:

 

Trump has had to take on the Clinton team and all her money, the controlled media, and

EVEN THE GOP ELITES - who have crossed over to support Clinton

(Because they know their jobs and futures are at-risk if Trump wins!)

 

> http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=21017

 

It is far from over - the people are waking up fast !

I dont want to tempt providence but it was just like before Brexit...virtually every branch of the BBC was telling us all how Remain was a shoe in. I once listened to the Jeremy Viner lunchtime show (had no choice in the matter) and he had a person from every country in the EU in his studio telling us all how brilliant it was.

 

The BBC are the ultimate in Left wing hypocrisy,all the bullshit about equal opportunities and then the rich white liberals still run it.

 

They love the EU because they love cheap servants.