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Will the stock market go OUTSIDE the Snake soon?

 

we seem to be very close to another "outside the snake" SELL Signal on SPY ... update

 

Snake_zpsj6whk9cx.png

 

A Put to Buy, might be the "Shemitah Bellwether":

SPY-Sept-210p: now at: $8.34 (3.97% of 210-strike), with: spy-210.8/vix-12.60 = 16.73
SPY-Sept-210p: now at: 11.28 (5.37% of 210-strike)

 

Adam Hamilton's Real SPX chart

Beware-the-stock-bear........Zeal-real-S

 

>source: http://www.mining.com/web/beware-the-stock-bear/

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The SENSE in it: The Snake-Ratio shows the Mood Swings

Fear/VIX hits highs on Lows, and Stocks peak when VIX is Low

 

In reality, it times the Lows well, but sometimes shows a swing before SPY Highs

 

"Outside the Snake" ??

That looks like an interesting concept!

Do tell more...

How reliable are those signals ??

 

Snake2_zpsdjg9hzfd.png

 

What does the "SNAKE" Chart show?
The key data is a Ratio between:
+ SPY : the etf of the S&P-500 (recently 210.37), and
+ VIX : the volatility index for the S&P-500 (recently 12.60)
Ratio : r-16.70, as of the 4/17/2015 close
Range: 11.08 r-points : from 6.86 to 18.94, over 2014-2015,
so the latest close is 9.84 pts, or 88.8% of the way to the top of the range
===
What are those Snake movements (ie. the Blue channel)?
This represents a Bollinger Band around the 76day Moving Average of the data.
Bollinger bands widen when the data is more volatile, and narrow when it is less volatile. A movement out of the "snake" bands is a rarity. And they can be taken as potential turning points, or about to lead to a Turn in Stocks.

Historical : 11 signals in 3 years

Signal-Level : - Date - : - SPY - : - VIX- : Chg.-- : %.-Chg.

BUY : 04.52 : 06/04/12 : 127.13 : 27.73 : -- n/a- : -- n/a - :

SELL: 10.01 : 08/17/12 : 142.18 : 13.45 : $15.05 : +11.8%

High : +04 d. : 08/21/12 : 142.54 : 15.02 : $15.36 : +12.1%

BUY : 05.90 : 12/28/12 : 139.87 : 23.23 :- 02.51 : - 1.76%

SELL: 13.29 : 03/14/13 : 156.73 : 11.30 : $16.86 : +12.1%

High : +69 d. : 05/22/13 : 169.70 : 13.05 : $19.87 : +14.2%

BUY : 07.47 : 06/24/13 : 155.73 : 21.91 :- 13.97 : - 8.23%

SELL: 13.97 : 08/05/13 : 170.96 : 11.83 : +15.23 : +9.78%

High : +00 d. : 08/05/13 : 170.96 : 11.83 : +15.23 : +9.78%

BUY : 07.90 : 10/09/13 : 164.53 : 21.34 : - 06.43 : - 3.76%

SELL: 14.36 : 11/15/13 : 180.12 : 11.99 : +15.59 : +9.48%

High : +14 d. : 11/29/14 : 181.75 : 12.93 : +17.22 : +10.5%

High : +61 d. : 01/15/14 : 184.66 : 11.81 : +20.13 : +12.2%

BUY : 07.92 : 02/03/14 : 173.83 : 21.48 : - 10.83 : - 5.86%

SELL: 18.94 : 07/03/14 : 198.20 : 10.28 : +24.37 : +14.0%

High : +19 d. : 07/24/14 : 199.06 : 11.43 : +25.86 : +14.9%

BUY : 06.86 : 10/15/14 : 186.43 : 31.06 : - 12.63 : - 6.34%

Sell ?: 17.00+ 04/??/15 : 211.00 : 12.50 : coming?: +13%+

High : +00 ds:

 

SPY-3yrs_zpsra4uhsik.png[/

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Gold and GLD Charts / With Trendlines:

Gold%20futures_zpsbxhmuclz.png

 

GLD / Gold etf ... All-Data : All-Log

GLD-log_zps1jr7dgnz.gif

 

Combined-#1:

Gold%20fut2_zpskbfrsdfs.png

 

Combined-#2:

GLD-log2_zpsxtt40wef.gif=

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A very Bullish Gold chart - based on Welles Wilder, some lines added

 

GoldQtr2_zpswbhrddk4.jpg

 

“The $4,700 gold projection is a delta long-term #1 target, which is where the biggest moves take place.

This chart ... also shows that there have been three major turning points so far in gold’s 16-year bull market.

 

I expect this $4,700 target will be reached in 2016"

 

source- KWN : http://kingworldnews.com/60-year-market-veteran-warns-elite-may-make-a-terrifying-move-as-they-lose-control-and-gold-soars-to-5000-in-2016/

 

The Stage is set for a monumental Crash (in bonds, etc)

yield_on_index_lin_3284107a.PNG

What makes today’s negative interest rate environment so worrying is this; to the extent that demand is growing at all in the world economy, it seems again to be almost entirely dependent on rising levels of debt. The financial crisis was meant to have exploded the credit bubble once and for all, but there's very little sign of it. Rising public indebtedness has taken over where households and companies left off. And in terms of wider credit expansion, emerging markets have simply replaced Western ones. The wake-up call of the financial crisis has gone largely unheeded.

==

> http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/jeremy-warner/11569329/Jeremy-Warner-Negative-interest-rates-put-world-on-course-for-biggest-mass-default-in-history.html

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Gold shares (GDX) may be a better buy than Gold from here


Gold-toGDX_zpsz0pnrvyf.png

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Tony C thinks the Stock Bull market still has plenty of time:

 

"Looking ahead we see this bull market probably lasting until at least 2017"

 

He gives some targets for the SPX and the Dow:

 

"We currently have an SPX projection of 2500+ by 2016. This equates to about DOW 21,400+ using the current DOW/SPX price ratio"
" The price gain relationship of the three best bull markets in history are: 4.75, 6.00 and 7.25 from their respective lows; or +375%, +500% and +625%. Since there is an increment of 1.25, let’s notch it down one level to 3.50 for this bull market. This suggests the DOW could gain 250%, or hit a level of 22,600 before the bull market ends. This gives us three potential levels going forward: 22,600, 30,500 and 38,600."

 

> https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2015/07/19/the-historical-dow/

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Interestingly Martin Armstrong has been saying when the bond bubble bursts, money will flood in to stocks which `could` push it up to 30K. Quite a bold call if you ask me.

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Anyone else think that UK House prices in Gold is possibly drawing out a Head & Shoulders pattern?

sphv6f.jpg

 

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/head-shoulders.asp

 

The Rally may be ending

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SPX / S&P-500 ... alldata : 10yrs : 5yrs :

 

aa_zps5wdii8ln.gif

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Gold is still in a down channel

 

GLD: 3 mos : 2-yrs / 12 mos: GLD : GBS : HUI : GDX / 10d : SLV : GLD : GDX : nugt op : VIX : SPY : vvt : UKX : sagd

GLD-2yrs_zpspxq8vjui.gif

 

Stan Druckenmiller is going big on gold.

Druckenmiller is one of the world’s most successful and respected traders. As a hedge fund manager from 1986 to 2010, he generated an incredible average annual return of 30%.

Druckenmiller was also George Soros’s right-hand man at Quantum, Soros’s famed hedge fund. Quantum’s now legendary 1992 trade shorting the British pound was Druckenmiller’s idea. It made Quantum about $1 billion. People say the trade “broke the Bank of England.”

Most professional investors preach diversification. But Druckenmiller says he’s successful because he’s not afraid to concentrate his bets when he really believes in a trade. He calls it “being a pig.”

The first thing I heard when I got in the business, not from my mentor, was bulls make money, bears make money, and pigs get slaughtered.

I’m here to tell you I was a pig. And I strongly believe the only way to make long-term returns in our business that are superior is by being a pig. I think diversification and all the stuff they’re teaching at business school today is probably the most misguided concept everywhere.

Druckenmiller just made a $300 million bet on gold…

Druckenmiller’s fund recently bought $300 million worth of SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), an ETF that tracks the price of gold. It’s a huge bet, even for a big-time trader like Druckenmiller. He put 20% of his fund’s money into this trade, and it’s his largest position.

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CHINA (Shanghai Composite Index) may not be far from an important low

 

CN: ShComp ... update

 

aa_zps21ki4tgr.gif

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Are we in the Last Rally now?

 

"I'd suggest that very hard times are just around the corner, waiting to spring upon us.

... the collapse of the financial markets which will bring great economic hardship.."

- CMJ

 

Indu-All-l2_zps1ouwxmiw.gif

 

Maybe the Bears have "called Wolf" too many times.

When the Big Bear market starts, many people won't believe it.

Many spoke about a crash this fall. We saw a decent drop, but not a crash. Stocks are rising again.

Will many people now think the market is immune to crashes, and jump in recklessly.

 

Tony Caldaro*, who has called this market very well, thinks we are in the last wave 5 rally.

I think he is targeting something like SPX-2,040 or higher, and maybe much higher.

But after that, the Big Bear arrives.

 

I hope people make some money on this "last rally", that's what it is.

But the really bad times still await us. The Big Bad wolf is still in the woods, and he is hungry

=== ===

 

*Tony Caldaro, on his blog yesterday said:

" This is the second best rally since the late-August, potential Primary IV, double bottom low at SPX 1867 to 1990. The next price obstacle for the SPX is obviously 2000, then the 2019 pivot. If the market can clear those levels, as easily as it cleared the 1956 and 1973 pivots, Primary V should indeed be underway"

==

> https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2015/10/05/monday-update-473/

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Nice Dow chart. Can you blow it up?

Right.

Can you see the channels more clearly now?

 

INDU - monthly ... All-data : 10-yrs : 5-yrs : 2-yrs : 6mos / 10d

INDU-mo-Log_zpsctf9wup2.gif

 

10-year Chart : PV target : Dow: 18,600 - 18,800 ? : 6-mos-D

Indu-10yrs_zpsqri5znwr.gif

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A fascinating long term chart - Stocks are still very expensive vs. falling earnimgs

 

SPXEarns2_zpsiua6fakg.png

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GDX -to GLD Ratio could be on a launching pad - & that should be good for Gold

 

GDX : $13.97 +0.29: +2.08% : 35.5mn
GLD : 102.31 - 0.30: -0.29% : 2.77 M:
Ratio: 13.65%

 

OLD Ratio, last week

GDX-toGLD_zpsdezfhm6w.png

 

LATEST RATIO : thru 12/23's close

AB_zpsvyogiduj.png

 

Note how the 76day MA has flattened out, and is turning up

And the RSI seems to have bottomed also

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GOLD and the 4-6 months Cycle

 

GLD-since 2011 ... update

GLD-2011_zpscrszugbp.gif

 

GLD -vs -HK2840 with cycle ... from-2011 : from-2013 : 12-months :

GLD-HK-2013B_zps8ghwdwjf.gif

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Stocks and Gold are it critical levels - if they push through Long Term trend reversals (going back years) may be confirmed

 

FRT_zpslmnoiqlf.gif

 

If not, the direction we have seen since the beginning of 2016 may be reversed

 

With more lines... Might SPY (182.86) go back to touch GLD (119.06) ? Ratio: 1.536

 

FRT_zps2liknf44.gif

 

Ratio: SPY to GLD:

SPY-toGLD_zpsgkev6sni.png

 

The Ratio peaked at just over 2:1.

It is back down near 1.5:1. If it breaks that level, I could see it sliding to 1:1 - the "crossover" point in the 2nd chart

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The Buffett indicator : charted and explained

 

aa_zpsucvlaeqv.gif

 

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I am Ringing the Bell : It is Time to put your Puts in Place !

 

LIfe imitates art

2. SPY - update

aa_zpsgaoe4fav.gif

 

 

..........................SPY-10d_zpsihnsovde.gif

 

Bounce is very near key resistance

IWM / Russell-2000 etf ... update

IWM_zpsbuls84l4.gif

 

David Stockman predicts another economic recession

 

"The investor shouldn't be looking for growth, the investor should be looking for cover:"

 

As Stockman said earlier : David Stockman: The World Economy Has Stopped Growing And Is Headed Into A Depression

Market is ready to rollover - is trading ay 24X Trailing Earnings.

There's a huge bubble in the bond market

Conclusion:

I am putting my money where my mouth is, and buying Puts here

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The Top two of 5 things associated with Brexit

.
MP3 : http://mediaarchives.gsradio.net/stormfront/hr1062416.mp3

.
2/ Off the Leash :
1/ Domino effect :

==
Voters are no longer voting as they are TOLD to Vote by the globalist media
Other things, once considering impossible, because they were thought too unpopular, involved too much change, or were political incorrect, will now gain in interest and momentum. Thus, we may see more exits from Europe, and people more inclined for Trump, and even more research into 911 and other ideas once ridiculed as "conspiracy theory"

 

"A defeat for ALL the elites. And Hillary Clinton is their stepchild."

> see also : x

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FX - 10d charts

==

GBP - in US$ ... 5-days : update : http://tinyurl.com/GBP-10d

gbp-5d_zpsahmxyfqo.gif

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A CHART to watch now: TLT / Bonds !

 

TLT / Long-Bond etf ... update : All-data / 10-d : LAST: 138.36-0.81 / O: 139.73, H: 140.69, L: 138.22 / Vol: 11.9mn

1-year

TLT_zpst58tf0aa.gif

All-data

TLT-all_zpsyszp2y80.gif

 

 

A Key Reversal !

 

Here's Why Markets Loved Janet Yellen's Speech at Jackson Hole
Fortune- 6 hours ago
That's the takeaway from the Fed Chair speech Friday morning at the Kansas City Fed's annual gathering in Jackson Hole, Wyo. Yellen had ...
Stocks Fall After Yellen's Remarks
Wall Street Journal- 2 hours ago

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