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SAFEHAVENS: Good and Bad

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SAFEHAVENS: Good and Bad

 

The implosion of the US has barely started.

 

Does this Long Term Gold chart suggest it is time to switch back to the Yellow metal?

 

Here's WHY you need a Good Safehaven... stocks are rolling over for the first time since 200?:

SPX-20yr_zps2wrqe9tk.png

 

Gold's 20 year chart suggests an important breakout may have occurred very recently

 

Gold_zpsqs0bi0it.png

TBond-10yr_zpsok30zicq.png

 

Long Term 20 Year charts - with 14mo vs. 18mo MA

SPX/ sp500 : http://www.cstcharts.com/cgi-bin/chartge.pl?sp.m

Gold........... : http://www.cstcharts...chartge.pl?gc.m

10-yr Note.. : http://www.cstcharts.com/cgi-bin/chartge.pl?ty.m

 

Here's HOW I know that: Look at the Two major Safe Havens : US Bonds (TLT) and Gold ... update

 

GLD-vsTLT_zpseslrjdbo.gif

 

These are two asset classes where investors flee when stocks are weak.

In general, they have tended to move UP together with stocks fall - to show that, I add a bear instrument on the SPX (that's SH)

to the chart / which shows TLT, GLD, and SH. ... update

 

GLD-Safehavens_zps9odiktvd.gif

 

But here's what you should ponder:

It only makes sense to buy US govt Bonds if you think that the US Govt will not default on its bonds, and/or will nor repay them in worthless currency

 

Someday, we may see a crisis where the world is selling T-Bonds, and buying Gold.

They may even regard stocks as a better safe haven than bonds - because at least with stocks, there may be some real value in corporate assets

 

There was a time, not many years ago, when Gold outperformed Bonds - here's what that looked like...

When GOLD was the preferred Safe haven:

GLD-vs-TLT_zpsuqjalisg.gif

 

If we are moving back into such a time, we will see it in the ratio of GLD -to-TLT

 

GLD-toTLT_zps2sdxwvsn.png

 

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-30/glistening-gold-rumble-ruble-americas-tribute-scam-unraveling-fast

 

Glistening Gold & The Rumble In The Ruble - America's "Tribute Scam" Is Unraveling Fast

 

There is no question Masters of the Universe operatives are behind the collapse in oil and ruble prices. Somewhat it’s a repeat of the scenario in mid-2014, when the oil price crashed and there was no visible increase in output; what happened was the – invisible – dumping of seven million barrels a day of Gulf oil under orders by the Masters of the Universe, according to surefire (American) banking sources.

The Fed mightily contributed to the present disorder by raising interest rates when the US economy was sick, while cash settlement manipulators in Wall Street used this as the basis for their move to tank the markets. It goes without saying that the usual suspects will make hundreds of billions of dollars out of the current market crash. A good place to watch is what goes on inside BlackRock.

Into this gloomy scenario steps in none other than the aspiring Master of the (New) Universe, Chinese President Xi Jinping .....

Xi as much as anyone knows very well how the whole American economy – based on a worthless global reserve currency – is fuelled by a rapacious, barely disguised tribute, paid by every nation in the world to the Empire of Chaos. And Xi knows how this tribute scam is unraveling, fast.

In Riyadh, Xi even implied, in a very Chinese, nuanced way, that the House of Saud would be doing a very good deal if it eventually dropped Washington as the Mafia-style protector, as well as the petrodollar as the privileged conduit for recycling Saudi oil income. What about yuan-denominated bonds and yuan-based oil benchmarks?

Needless to add, should the House of Saud even contemplate such a move en masse, a CIA-engineered coup in Riyadh would be a certainty, and all House of Saud assets confiscated

So we have the Saudis – following Masters of the Universe orders – frantically dumping securities on the market while the Russian Central bank wavers on what to do next.

Yet even if the Saudis managed to dump their $8 trillion in estimated assets Russia, adopting the correct strategy, could still move to a self-sufficiency that the US – or the EU – can’t even dream of. And on top of it enjoying full employment – while the West crashes itself down as their markets disintegrate.....

 

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The Chinese Yuan was once considered a Safe Haven... but no more:

 

US$ priced in CNY ... update : Last: 6.573 - shows more CNY for the US$, since the early 2014 Low

CNY_zpsu6lojdzu.gif

 

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/massive-banking-crisis-brewing-singapore-024500286.html

 

A massive banking crisis is brewing in Singapore, says Swiss billionaire Zulauf

(... and Hong Kong too)

 

EXCERPT:

 

Speaking at the annual Barron’s roundtable, Swiss billionaire investor Felix Zulauf warned that Singapore’s largest banks are at risk of massive capital outflows if the Chinese economy experiences a hard landing, which he expects will happen this year.

“We are in a down cycle that will end with crisis and calamity. China in today’s cycle is what US housing was during the financial crisis in 2008,” Zulauf warned.

Zulauf warned that capital outflows in China will continue, prompting regulators to devalue the yuan by as much as 15% to 20% within the year. When this happens, Asian economies which are heavily dependent on China—particularly Singapore—will suffer because Chinese corporates cut their imports even more, while indebted Chinese companies will be placed at greater risk of default.

"I expect the situation the deteriorate to a point where we will witness a banking crisis in Asia that will hit Singapore and Hong Kong particularly hard," Zulauf said.

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He has been wrong before... (and right sometimes too, especially on upturns)

 

But that doesn't stop him from putting forward his case with passion

 

"Gold will hit $2500 between now and October"

 

Bo Polny-Dollars & Bonds Not Safe Haven This Crash

 

Published on Feb 14, 2016

Financial analyst Bo Polny expects big losses in the bond market around the world. Polny explains, “How many countries are going to be happy about that? Now, you want to know why gold goes vertical? People are going to run from paper because the bonds that were safe havens in 2007 and the dollars that were safe havens in 2007, this time around, is the opposite. So, you don’t have safety in paper. You don’t have safety in the dollar. You don’t have safety in bonds this time. So, gold will be the asset class that everybody is going to run to.”
Is gold on the launching pad with the rocket boosters warming up? Polny says, “Yes, yes, there is very little time left. If you don’t act, and your money is in the stock and bond markets . . . a transfer of wealth is going to happen, and the date in October is not a crash. It’s something else. . . . Before all that happens, you are going to have markets collapse. We may have a little bounce in the markets, but that will be the final opportunity to get out. If people have not gotten out of their positions and done something with their stocks before the end of this month, February, it’s going to get ugly.”

 

Ugly?

Is that we he calls a Correction in the Gold price?

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A closer look at the 14 x 18 month Crossovers / i.e. Brown MA crosses Blue, making a confirmation

 

Monthly : SPX

SPX-20yr_zps2wrqe9tk.png

 

Weekly : 5-yrs-SPX

: About to cross? Any month now - inevitable so long as SPX stays below the 14 mo - MA as it is now

Cross-SPX-5yr_zpsyelqjowk.gif

When the present rally is finished, Watch out Below !

 

2/

Monthly : T-Note

Gold_zpsqs0bi0it.png

Weekly : 5-yrs-GLD : GDX : GDXJ : SLV : SLW : RGLD :

: This looks promising, but the 14mo MA hasn't crossed over above the 18mo MA yet - it may soon,

and the strong upside volume is an indication that the cross is likely unless Gold drops back

Cross-GLD-5yrB_zpsesufawnc.gif

 

3/

Monthly : T-Notes, 10 years

TBond-10yr_zpsok30zicq.png

 

Weekly : 5-yrs-TLT : XLF- crossed ! : BKX : IYR : PHM :

:Still moving higher, upwards trend is intact

Cross-TLT-5yr_zpspxclbixf.gif

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It is time to start watching, to see if the US Dollar will roll over

 

What does the long term chart for the US Dollar / DXY look like?

 

12-months

DXY_zps7s4yg9rp.gif

 

USD_zpswn3dxccc.png

 

If it does, the USD and US Government debt may no longer be a safe haven

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