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Gran Columbia (GCM.t) : restructured Columbian Gold miner

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Updated, Last: C$2.81 (US$2.10) at 12/10/2018 - 1-yr / Vs 200d : 377d.ma : 610d : 987d. : 700-945d : Mkt.Depth :

snYkdsN.gif

Date------- : GCM.t: CAD$: $Price: ShOS MktVal : 8%-Debs: Date: Cash: EntVal. / $Gold : OZ's/ Prd. years.: 221wtx12.2M
08/10/18: $2.44 x.761= $1.857 48.2M $89.5M: $98.0M: Est.: $28.0: $159.5M /$1219: 131k/200: 0.660: $0.23=$2.81M
09/12/18: $2.27 x.769= $1.745 48.2M $84.1M: $98.0M: Est.: $28.0: $154.1M /$1206: 128k/212: 0.604: $0.06=$0.73M
10/02/18: $2.40 x.780= $1.872 48.2M $90.2M: $93.1M: Est.: $28.0: $155.3M /$1204: 129k/212: 0.609: $0.19=$2.31M
11/01/18: $2.51 x.763= $1.915 48.2M $92.3M: $88.3M: Est.: $28.0: $152.6M /$1239: 123k/215: 0.572: $0.30=$3.66M
11/12/18: $2.34 x.756= $1.769 48.2M $85.3M: $88.3M: 11/13 $29: $144.6M /$1201: 120k/217: 0.553: $0.13=$1.59M
12/10/18: $2.81 x.746= $2.097 48.2M $101.M: $88.3M: 11/13 $29: $160.3M /$1243: 129k/217: 0.594: $0.60=$7.32M
=========

Gold linked Notes, Total Value Estimate: with Wt.B / vs.GCM / TPRFF : GCM.NT.U

UNITS:
Date : Gold: GCM : Ratio: G/1250 x57%+104%= Debs : Wt2.21: CAD : $USD : 124wt: Comb.: USD$: x512.8:
05/31: 1305: $3.03 : 431. : 104.4 : 59.5 +44.7= 104.2 : $1.40*x0.772 = $1.08 : 13.4% : 117.6 : $2.34: 1200 :
06/29: 1255: $2.88 : 436. : 100.4 : 57.2 +44.7= 101.9 : $1.30*x0.761 = $0.99 : 12.3% : 114.2 : $2.19: 1123 :
07/31: 1234: $2.53 : 488. : 100.0 : 57.0 +44.7= 101.7 : $1.18*x0.769 = $0.91 : 11.3% : 113.0 : $1.95: 1000 :
10/02: 1204: $2.40 : 502. : 100.0 : 57.0 +44.7= 101.7 : $1.14 x0.780 = $0.89 : 11.0% : 112.7 : $1.88: $964 :
=====: ==================================== : *est. Wt. value, x124 wts/deb
Last Col.: $1000/ 1.95= 512.8shs xC%2.52= C$1,292 x0.770= $995, Value of 1% Debs if Converted

GCM etc: GDXJ & MNT.t ... update st 377d: w/MUX st: GCM.t only : 12/10/2018: c$2.81 : c$17.58 : $27.76 :

8SP2D6l.gif

Date-----: GCM.t : MNT.t : 12.9%L// GDXJ  x10.0%H cad= GJcad: x7.7%
12/30/16: $1.40 : $16.48 : $2.13 //: $31.55 : $3.16 x1.350= 42.59: 3.28
12/29/17: $1.96 : $17.39 : $2.24 //: $34.13 : $3.41 x1.257= 42.90: 3.30
05/28/18: $3.29 : $17.71 : $2.28 //: $32.89* $3.29 x1.299= 42.72: 3.29 - High
06/30/18: $2.88 : $17.44 : $2.25 //: $32.70 : $3.27 x1.314= 42.97: 3.31
08/17/18: $2.13 : $16.35 : $2.11 //: $27.49 : $2.75 x1.306= 35.90: 2.76 - Low
10/04/18: $2.60 : $16.37 : $2.11 //: $27.83 : $2.78 x1.292= 35.59: 2.74
11/01/18: $2.51 : $16.91 : $1.92 //: $28.14 : $2.81 x1.310= 36.86: 2.84
11/14/18: $2.53 : $16.90 : $2.18 //: $26.64 : $2.66 x1.324= 35.27: 2.72
12/10/18: $2.81 : $17.58 : $2.27 //: $27.76 : $2.78 x1.340= 37.20: 2.86

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INSTITUTIONS are IN ! At Last !

GCM.T :$2.53 +$0.19 +8.12%, vol. 97,472 +23,166 us = 120.6K

In the conference call... and into the stock too. apparently

first CC with questions from institutions...

looks like some institutions are interested in the stock...  lots of questions ...

..GCM  possibly will upgrade the mill at segovia to 2000 tonnes/day in 2020 ...  depending on exploration results and growing resource ...  at low Capex ...     

..still lot of upside at segovia  , target date for Marmato PFS/FS 2020/2021 ....  higher priority is Segovia for now...
/ 2 /
stock is up during the CC ..... good questions ...interesting answers ...   i bet there will be some buying rec. next weeks ;) ... institutions will recognize the undervaluation of GCM

Read more at http://www.stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard#iDaMx0QOGBwPEWSS.99

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MUX has been weak recently,

... far weaker than resilient GCM.t

=====: MUX.t : end17 / GCM.t : end17 /
PrCad : $2.32 : $2.86 / $2.53 : $1.96 /
/CAD$ : 1.322 : 1.257 / 1.322 : 1.257 /
US$pr : 1.755 : 2.275 / 1.914 : 1.559 /
ShsOS : 337.3 : 000.0 / 48.15 : 20.87 / in Mn's
MkCap: $591. : $00.0 / $92.2 : $32.5 / in Mn's
Debt--  : $00.0 : $00.0 / $88.3 : $99.2 / in Mn's
Cash+ : $00.0 : $00.0 / $33.4 : $15.9 / in Mn's
ND/Eq : R0.00 : R0.00 / R.211 : R.371 /
EntVal : $00.0 : $00.0 / 147.1 : 115.8 / in Mn's
AsPct : 100.% : 100.% / 100.% : 100.% /
AuPrd : 171.0 : 152.0 / 215.5 : 174.0 /
EV/ozP 00.0k : 00.0k / 682.6 : 665.5 /
BkVal : $0.00 : $0.00 / 259.9 : 224.4 / in Mn's
BV/sh.: $0.00 : $0.00 / $5.40 : 10.75 / in USD
======

MUX Presentation : https://s21.q4cdn.com/390685383/files/doc_presentations/mcewen_presentation.pdf

MUX.t versus GCM.t ... All : from 4-4-2011 : 2-4-2014 : 2-4-2016 : 11-14-2017 : from 2-28-18 :

dtjWuPL.gif

GCM.t vs: MUX.t, MNT.t, GDXJ ... update : fr. 6.2.18 :

baZSUQN.gif

Ratio: MUX-to-GCM

RUFSs1Z.png

Date: MUX.t: GCM.t:
2/14: $2.95 : $2.23 :
2/15: $3.01 : $2.40 :
2/28: $2.52: $2.54:
=====
11/13: 2.27 : $2.34 :
11/14: 2.32 : $2.53 :
=====

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CC transcript.....

Q3 2018 Gran Colombia Gold Corp Earnings Call TORONTO Nov 14, 2018 (Thomson StreetEvents)
-- Edited Transcript of Gran Colombia Gold Corp earnings conference call or presentation Wednesday
...read more

Unidentified Analyst

So for this third quarter at Segovia, the average tonnes per day going through the mill?

Lombardo Arenas

Okay. Well, now our average tonnes per day going to the mill is around 1,200.

Unidentified Analyst

Okay. 1,200. Okay. And you said that you could possibly work towards 2,000 tonnes a day based on how you project on underground stope development?

Lombardo Arenas

Yes. Our projection for the mill capacities, the first quarter next year we are going to be around 1,500. And then for 2020, we are planning to be in 2,000 hundreds -- excuse me, 2,000 tonnes per day. And that -- remember that we are focusing on 3 or 4 things in Segovia. One thing is, mainly is cost reduction, cost optimization. Second thing is exploration, to develop the most extensive veins of resources that we have in Segovia. There are 24, 25 veins, and we did touch only seven. So it's a lot of veins that we didn't touch already. And the third thing is infrastructure. We have to put more mineral on the surface. So that's the reason because our priorities are exploration, cost and infrastructure of the mines in order to produce more and being able to put more tonnes in the mill.

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Given what I'm hearing it seems there's nothing to do on this stock until it goes up. Probably 5 CAD, but who knows how long that will take?

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GCM needed to be "discovered" by institutions.

Those that knew it may have been hammered when the stock plummeted years ago, and have been slow to forgive,

because some of the key management is still in place.

Whoever buys them out, if that happens, would still get a great bargain

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GCM had a good day : +6% on strong volume.

GCM-etc ... update : Flip-Mux hist :

DCLIfFm.gif

Stock : 11/17 : chg. : +-pct.: Volume
GCM.t : $2.71 : +0.16: +6.27%: 157,861
MUX.t : $2.37 : unch.: +0.00%: 110,435
Ratio : 114.3% resistance: 122%, 170%?
MUX- : $1.81 : +0.02: +1.12%: 2.886Mn
TPRff : $2.05 : +0.13: +6.88%:  11,406
GDXJ : $27.51: +0.39: +1.44%: 7.941Mn x1.315 CAD: $36.18:
MNT.t: $16.87: +0.02: +0.12%:   5,425
GLD-- : 115.62: +0.85: +0.74%: 8.110Mn 
UGLD : $83.59: +1.73: +2.11%: 140,560

Ratio: GCM-toMUX, resistance at R122%, then R170% maybe

07wpLZG.png

Ratio: GCM.t to GDXJ

cVFz6wu.png

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Needs strong volume to blast thru resistance bear $2.75

gcm ... etc :

s6EdbsJ.gif

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Is GCM a (potential) Takeover Target?

(some posters on Stockhouse believe so)

Possibility of a takeover

+ Liquorc
Yes, crazy numbers here. total enterprise value with debt under 250mm canadian. A buyer can payoff debt, 100mm, and reap returns of over 25-35% per year if purchased for $5. This can happen in a flash. Any thoughts?

+ Memr189:

Agree, and surprised it hasn’t happened yet. Majors are looking for company’s with similar profiles as GCM. 200k-300k producer with proven reserves. There have been very few if any major discoveries over the past 10 years and globally supplies are dwindling. GCM is ripe for the picking. 
Personally speaking I didn’t want to see a $5 buyout as this was to cheap, however $5 today is looking pretty good given that the SP has barely moved lately. 
GLTA! 
+ Wayned: (becomes hyperbolic):
Selling for anything under $10 right now would be a crime . For every $100 increase  in the price of gold add on several more dollars . And that doesn`t count Sandspring or Marmato .

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SandSpring (GCM owns 17%+ at C$0.25)

- Now Under $0.20, Cheap enough to Buy maybe?

SSP ... fr. 1/2016-L : 1/2017 :

8nSTHge.gif

(Stockhouse comment)

November 21, 2018 05:21 pm  by  menoalittle
2.5 stars
Sandspring looking more and more like rather juicy, low hanging fruit

Cheap! relative to GCM's nice gain

GCM & SSP -etc: .. fr. 1/16 :1/17 : update : SSP: $0.185 / GCM: C$2.67 = Ratio-6.93%

qBUpvhQ.gif

Ratio: SSP -to-GCM - just under 7%

hQ9adwI.png

Old Stockhouse posts - on SSP bullboard

Gran Colombia buys more shares of SSP

Gran Colombia has increased its holdings in Sandspring to an aggregate of 35,000,000 common shares and 16,000,000 share purchase warrants...
The 35,000,000 common shares represent approximately 16.69% of the outstanding common shares of Sandspring. Assuming that Gran Colombia but no other warrant holder exercises and holds its share purchase warrants, when combined with its existing ownership, Gran Colombia would have control and direction over 51,000,000 common shares representing approximately 22.60% of the then outstanding common shares of Sandspring.
...read more

Gran Colombia Gold Completes Acquisition of Approximately 15% Interest in Sandspring Resources Ltd. - July 26, 2018

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Out of the Blue?

Weird 10% drop in GCM shares while GDXJ is slightly higher

Why>  Found these News stories (which don;t explain much)

Colombia's clouded outlook

www.mining-journal.com-13 Nov 2018
The organiser of this week’s Colombia Gold Symposium in Medellin, a long-term resident of the city that is an administrative and services hub for the country’s expanding mining sector, says the more pervasive threat from criminal mining in Colombia and elsewhere in the region, and now the financial implosion at Red Eagle Mining, ensured a sombre mood among about 300 delegates at the San Fernando Plaza hotel.
 
/ 2 /

Colombian mining group says tax bill will attract foreign investment

Reuters-19 Nov 2018
BOGOTA (Reuters) - Colombia's main mining industry group said on Monday it was optimistic a new tax bill that includes a cut to corporate ...
===

ONE SELLER (?) seems to have dropped about 100k - 150k shares in a hurry.

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"Whatever doesn't kill me, Makes me Stronger"

GCM's fast 10% selloff the other day was scary, but the stock is back up now,

helped by a lower USD and a bouceback in Gold shares

GCM.t ... 6mo : 3mo : $2.50 +0.17 +7.02%

MTzqNgj.gif

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GCM -to-MNT Ratio - is still in a long term Uptrend

n0m89FV.png

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Which is it: Right Shoulder. or Take-off Point ?

We may find out this week

GCM.t ... One Year :

KhysdJq.gif

I still think it is the cheapest Gold mining stock on the planet

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6 hours ago, hector said:

Looks bullish af time for it to mooon

I am Long and Bullish

I want to see it blast thru Resistance at $2.75 with strong volume,  Then it can go much higher

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It's TIME for a Dividend

RE:...:HOW ABOUT A DIVIDEND!!!!!

(A Guess?)

Dividend will happen at $1450 gold or do. Totally gold price dependent. Maybe share buyback instead. .

/ 2 /

Knocking it out of the park with IRR has done nothing for the share price in recent quarters. Our debt is under control and is at par or even well below industry standards, so paying down dept won’t help in the short term. Having only 48 million shares out there is amazingly low so buying back shares makes no sense and would have no impact on share price. Goldcorp yesterday announced a 2 cent dividend!!! Yes GOLDCORP!!! big deal. 12 bucks a share and 2 pennies for that size of a company! So we have only 48 million shares out there, matching Goldcorp’s 2 cent div would cost the company ONLY $960,000 or better yet let’s say a 4 cent div which would cost them $1,920,000. So what ! It’s peanuts, they can afford it and for us longs ( before the 15-1 reverse split) we deserve it. To this day I still can’t believe the sp and volume is so low, producing 225k ounces annually, 10-15 million ounces in the ground, very low float, money in the bank this should be much higher. This is just like owning a gold mine!!! Wait a minute Ha it is one lol!
My fear here is with all the deception, greed and manipulation these days in the markets this company will be swept right  out from under us with a measly 20% premium. I hope I’m wrong but many have in the past.
GLTA and enjoy the upcoming holiday season.
 
/ 3 /

Normally, I care little for 1-2% dividends if there is a better return in increasing production/reducing costs or making share buybacks when the stock is priced low.  (SAND announced a plan to buy back 8m shares (10%) over the next year and the stock has experienced a nice upward kick.)  

GCM is continually overlooked and has to be the best value for a gold mining company.  They need to do some things differently to get noticed.  (It might also behoove them to spend a bit more on drilling to strengthen their reserve numbers, that's their key weakness to most investors.)   Given that so many investors want dividends, even if low, maybe it's worth considering.  As noted, it wouldn't amount to much.  

GCM is one of my larger holdings.  Continually recommend it to others, but generally ignored.  Keep asking myself if I should buy more, though, as it should really explode if/when the gold price goes up.  And, if it could just be valued similar to peers, it's price would also be far higher.

/ 4 /

I bought more yesterday and then the same thing happened that does most days . I waited most of the day with a partial fill a $2.63 . Just before closing time I got the last fills of the day and then the bids disappeared . Tonight the finish was $2.64 but the ask is $2.70 and the bid collapsed to $2.53 according to my TD site .   That is a common end of the day for GCM and I don`t understand it . You can`t beat it because the bids disappear with seconds to go . What about that ?  I don`t remember seeing it that bad before on a non TSXV stock

Read more at http://www.stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard#XI7sIIStUEiIgJC2.99

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GCM to-MUX ratio ... Headed to: 1.4-1.5 Maybe ?

A breakout above 1.15 looks likely

W0NLJLl.png

Day to Day compared ... update: Gcm.to-$2.70 / Mux.to-$2.40 = R-1.125

Vvr3wPy.gif

 

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I’ve had a few small batches on pullbacks,, I’ll not go overboard here, but you have another small convert.

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With the bonds, it is still my largest position, by far

THIS TIME... I do hope that the breakout, if we see it, is sustainable

GCM ... update : Last C$2.77 +0.08

AsmjRWO.gif

An uptrend in Gold prices would help

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Improving Volume in GCM, over the last two days

Is this signaling an important breakout is underway?

Has a predator taken an interest, and tried to de-ramp the stock, to buy cheaper? ... GCM-etc :

bkbqclK.gif

=====: GCM.t, vol. : TPRFF vol.: Total : MUX.t , vol. : MUX-, vol. : GDXJ / vol. : GCM/GDXJ
11/30: 2.53 048.0K: 1.92 03.8k: 051.8k: 2.35 116.6k: 1.76 1.43M: 26.59 8.10M: 0.64%
12/03: 2.59 061.6K: 0.00 00.0k: 061.6k: 2.36 150.0k: 1.78 1.79M: 27.07 8.62M: 0.71%
12/04: 2.62 062.8K: 2.00 28.1k: 090.9k: 2.41 100.3k: 1.81 1.40M: 27.16 7.54M: 1.21%
12/05: 2.64 019.1K: 0.00 00.0k: 019.1k: 2.40 033.4k: 0.00 0.00M: 00.00 0.00M: N/A
12/06: 2.69 104.3K: 2.00 18.3k: 122.6k: 2.42 138.0k: 1.81 2.39M: 27.22 9.79M: 1.25%
12/07: 2.78 127.0K: 2.08 90.7k: 217.7k: 2.41 109.4k: 1.82 2.26M: 28.04 17.5M: 1.25%
======
change : +9.88% ==: +8.33% ==: =====: +2.55% === : +3.40% ===: +5.45%

An odd article was published in the Motley Fool, someone tried to Bash GCM using 2-3 year old information.

Was someone trying to drive the stock lower , so they could Buy shares cheaply?

(From the Bullboard, Stockhouse Forum):

the Fool - Wayned (12/07)

I thought we must be under a halt today with the jump in gold and our lack of trading .  But I just found the reason . Once again we are getting hacked by the media with two year old information spun into a new story* by Motley Fool . Before anybody says the Fool has no influence you are dead wrong .  They have huge circulation and when we trade 30 k shares when gold is on a run , they obviously have great influence .    The article goes for the throat right off the bat calling GCM a serial destroyer of wealth  and one of the poorest managed companies in mining , etc. etc .
There is small acknowlegement in the middle about restructuring  but then a vicious slash at the end about having no reserves and among the highest  ASICs in the business .  It`s hard to believe they can publish trash like this . It is even harder to believe  the company won`t do anything to defend itself  , make a fuss , publish a rebuttal and gain some eyeballs .  Oh yeh I forgot . The weekend is coming up .
/ 2 /
Someone probably paid them to do a hit piece. Which probably means someone is trying to buy a big chunk and needs help getting cheap stock. Happens frequently on Seeking Alpha, too. Looks like we are up about the same as Teranga, so that piece isn't doing very much so far.

Read more at http://www.stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard#b3A5zg0BTidUzmBg.99

*Is This Gold Miner a Sound Investment?

Serial diluter of investor value Gran Colombia Gold Corp. (TSX:GCM) is once again touting for investors and seeking to attract further capital. The company, which is the largest underground miner in the Latin American nation of Colombia, has a long history of overpromising and under delivering for investors while riding roughshod over local communities and acting solely in the interests of insiders. While Gran Colombia has made significant progress on improving its operations and strengthening its balance sheet, there are no clear indications that this has changed.

Nonetheless, the miner has performed strongly over the last year, seeing its stock soar by 32% compared to gold losing around 7%...

The miner has reserves of 660,000 gold ounces at Segovia and 3.9 million ounces of measured and indicated resources at its Marmato property located near the city of Manizales. While the lack of proven and probable gold reserves is of considerable concern, Gran Colombia’s Marmato and Zancudo properties possess substantial potential, thus helping offset the risks associated with Gran Colombia’s low level of reserves....

... Gran Colombia has been a very difficult stock to like for some time. It has a long history of destroying shareholder value and failing to maximise the potential of its operations. The low level of proven and probable reserves, as well as high AISCs along with a lack of community support for its Segovia operations create considerable concern about Gran Colombia’s ability to unlock value for investors.

> more: https://www.fool.ca/2018/12/07/is-this-gold-miner-a-sound-investment/

ODD Comments!

"very difficult stock to like for some time" - but: "stock soar(ed) by 32% compared to gold losing around 7%" ??

I LIKE a stock that outperforms like that!

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The Rising price of Gold in CAD is helping GCM's C$ stock price

Mint's usual Turn-of-year Surge is targeting $18.00-18.60, maybe higher

MNT.t is like a Gold-in-CAD etf

MNT.t / Royal Canadian Mint ... update :

8pwBk9n.gif

Gold in CAD

gfGycrf.png

CAD

QCsmw9t.png

==

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Cocked, Locked, and Ready to Roll?

GCM

snYkdsN.gif

Broke the "MUX Barrier" finally yesterday > chart :

GDXJ-in-CAD barrier is at C$2.86 ... ... update

8SP2D6l.gif

Date------- : GCM.t: CAD$: $Price: ShOS MktVal : 8%-Debs: Date: Cash: EntVal. / $Gold : OZ's/ Prd. years.: 221wtx12,2M
11/12/18: $2.34 x.756= $1.769 48.2M $85.3M: $88.3M: 11/13 $29: $144.6M/$1201: 120k/217: 0.553: $0.13=$1.59M
12/10/18: $2.81 x.746= $2.097 48.2M $101M: $88.3M: 11/13 $29: $160.3M/$1243: 129k/217: 0.594: $0.60=$7.32M
=========
Date-----: GCM.t : MNT.t : 12.9%L// GDXJ  x10.0%H cad= GJcad: x7.7%
11/14/18: $2.53 : $16.90 : $2.18 //: $26.64 : $2.66 x1.324= 35.27: 2.72
12/10/18: $2.81 : $17.58 : $2.27 //: $27.76 : $2.78 x1.340= 37.20: 2.86
========

May soon add this chart to the top of the page

GCM-MUX-etc ... update :

iuhGTcP.gif

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