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drbubb

Gran Columbia (GCM.t) : 235,000 oz/yr Gold miner

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Took a little profit last night, still hold around half my highest holding, my average is now about 18c haha

====

Pg18 / Added in edit (by DrB):

I still think we will test the old highs at $7+,  but can understand selling some near $6 (see high last 3 days)

Four GCM Group co's... update: 10d / GCM at $3.98 on 4.01.20=> updated: C$5.70 @4/16/20 /Gldx-Cgc

rgrBPnB.gif

/Gldx-Cgc

G0dw5Ua.gif

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Gran Colombia related Companies & Enterprise Value of Deposit - @ 4/16/2020

Company —————  (symbol) $ Price: shsOS: MktCap. : Gcm%: $-Value  (%GCM): 02/24 : Compare : PeakV.

Caldas Gold Corp.    (CGC.t. ) : C$1.97: 106.M: $208.8M: x74% : $154.4M: (42.8%): C$2.00: $212.0M, $157M
Gold X Mining Corp. (GLDX.v) : C$2.10: 58.9M: $123.7M: x21% : $25.97M:  ( 7.7%): C$2.34: $137.8M, $  29M
Western Atlas Res.  (WA.v.   ) : C$0.07: 80.0M: $  5.60M: x20% : $. 1.12M :  ( 0.4%): C$.085:  $ 6.80M, $ 1.4M
===: Three GCM co’s ====== :  =====:  =====:  $338.1M: ==== : $181.5M: (52.4%) =====> : ======> $187M (44%)
Gran Colombia Gold (GCM.t): C$5.70: 60.8M : $346.6M: ==== : ======= : (100.%): C$6.94 : C$422M (100%)

Enterprise Value of the Segovia deposit: @$5.70, $1732 Gold
Market Cap: C$346.6M: GCM.t
Fully Diluted C$459.1M: 88.7M x$5.70=C$ -Cash inflow, ever. ($46.5M)
Compare:
Cash, est.   : C$110.3M:
Three co’s  : C$181.5M:
Debt — —   : ( C$83.5M):
Abv.Items :  C$208.3M: (45.4%)
Ent.Value :  C$250.8M:  54.6% /C$1.402=
======== : US$178.9 M / $1732 -1000 Cost: /$600= 298.2k Oz, prev: 183.7k Oz.
=> 298.2k Oz. vs. 670k oz reported Reserves (44.5%) / prev. was 27.4% (4.01.20)
Notes:
Cash US$84.2M + $20M.est.Q1 -$26.5M= US$77.7 x1.42= $110M
Debs US$68.8M (-$24.1M prepay=$44.7Mx1.42= C$63.5M)+Cv.Debs. C$20= C$83.5M
Exer.: wts.: 12M xC$2.21= C$26.5M + CvDebs: $20M = C$46.5M, ignored options

PRODUCTION. etc - from pg.17, Production Q1-'20: 56,247 oz (under Covid)

13760932-15856778457264013.png

= : PRODUCTION /  v 2020-jan
Mo.: Prod'17: Prod'18: Prod'19: Prod'20:
Q1- :  39,008 :  52,672 : 60,601 : 56,247 >  -7.19% (Covid?)
Q2- :  46,075 :  52,906 : 57,882 >  +14.8%
Q3- :   37.1 K :  57,163 : 56,271 > - 1.56%
Q4- :   52.0K :   55,260 : 65,237 > +12 %
Yr. =  174.2k : 218.0k : 240.0k.:
=== :: 2017 ::  2018 ::  2019 ::  2020 ::
Jan.  00,000: 16,700 : 17,941 : 18,501: +3.1%
Feb.  00,000: 17,339 : 21,335 : 18.674: -12.5%
Mar.  00,000: 18,633 : 21,325 : 19,072: -10.5%
=Q1: 39,008: 52,672 : 60,601 : 56,247: - 7.1%;
Apr.  00,000: 16,118 :  20,372 :
May 00,000:  18,675 : 18,528 :: 
Jun. 00,000:  18,400 : 18,882 ::
=Q2: 46.08k: 52.91k : 57,882 :   + 9%
July  00,000: 19,296 : 18,166 ::
Aug. 00,000: 18,747 : 18,710 ::
Sep.  00,000: 19,120 : 19,395 ::
=Q3: 37.10K: 57,163 : 56,271 ::
9m.: 122.2k: 162.75k : 174,754 :  + 7%
Oct.: 17.33K: 18,065 : 20,968 :
Nov.: 17.33K: 18,193 : 21,835 :
11m: 156.8k: 199.0k: 217,600 :
Dec.: 17.33K: 19,002: 22,434 : Monthly record!
=Q4: 52.00K: 55,260 : 65,237 : yr: 239,991
======================= ;
2018A: "218,001 OUNCES, UP 25% OVER 2017" :
2019A: "239,991 OZ. est. ,  UP 10% OVER 2018" :
2020 : 240,000 ?? / 200,000+ Segovia + 35,000 Marmato

= : TWO MINES PRODUCTION /  v 2020-Feb
Two Mines: Combined /  ——— : Segovia / ——— : Marmato/
Mo.:  Prod'19: Prod’20 / Prod'19: Prod’20 / Prod'19: Prod’20 /
Q1- :  60,601 : 58,000e
Q2- :  57,882  
Q3- :  56,271  
Q4- : 56k.Est  
Yr. =  230k.Est
Mo.: Prod'19: Prod’20 / Prod'19: Prod’20 / Prod'19: Prod’20 /
Jan.  17,941 : 18,501  /  16,220 : 16,865  /   1,700e:  1,636 /
Feb.  21,335 : 18.674  /  19,196 : 16,548  /   2,000e:  2,126  /
2mo. 39,276 : 37,175  /  35,416 : 33,413  /   3.700e:  3,762  /
Mar.  21,325 :
=Q1:  60,601 :
Apr.   20,372 :
===
Guidance : TwoMines /  ——— : Segovia / —— : Marmato /
Estimate: Low to High  /     Low to High    /.   Low to High.   /
2020 : 232.0k- 257.0k /  200.0k- 220.0k /  32,000-37,000 /
====

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Quarterly Repayment of Its Gold Notes on April 30, 2020

Gran Colombia Gold Corp. (TSX: GCM; OTCQX: TPRFF) announced today the details for the forthcoming quarterly repayment of its 8.25% Senior Secured Gold-Linked Notes due 2024 (the “Gold Notes”) (TSX: GCM.NT.U) as follows:

Payment date: April 30, 2020
Record date: April 23, 2020
Cash payment amount: Approximately US$0.10493519 per US$1.00 principal amount of Gold Notes representing an amortization payment of the principal amount issued and outstanding of approximately US$0.07632094 per US$1.00 principal amount of Gold Notes and a gold premium of approximately US$0.02861425 per US$1.00 principal amount of Gold Notes. Based on the London P.M. Fix on April 15, 2020 of US$1,718.65 per ounce, the aggregate amount of the cash payments on the Payment Date will be US$4,691,915, of which US$3,412,500 will be applied to reduce the aggregate principal amount of the Gold Notes issued and outstanding and the balance represents the Gold Premium.
Principal amount issued
and outstanding:

As of today’s date, there is a total of US$44,712,500 principal amount of Gold Notes issued and outstanding. After this quarterly repayment, the aggregate principal amount of the Gold Notes will be reduced to US$41,300,000.

/ 2 /

Gran Colombia Gold partial redemption of 8.25% notes

2020-04-17

The Toronto Stock Exchange reports that Gran Colombia Gold Corp. will redeem $4,691,915 (U.S.) total principal amount of its 8.25 per cent senior secured gold-linked notes due 2024. According to the TSX, the record date for the redemption is April 23, 2020, and the redemption date is April 30, 2020.

The TSX reports that the company will pay approximately 10.493519 U.S. cents per $1 (U.S.) principal amount of the gold notes redeemed, including an amortization payment of approximately 7.632094 U.S. cents per $1 (U.S.) principal amount and a gold premium of approximately 2.861425 U.S. cents per $1 (U.S.) principal amount. No accrued interest is included in the redemption amount as all accrued and unpaid interest on the gold note will be paid in the normal course on the interest payment date of April 30, 2020.

After payment: $41.3M -$4.7M= $36.6Million (4/30/20)

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Update: Led by GLDX: by GCM:

kR5iwH0.gif

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Wow!  I was planning to sell some today - a Day too late!

Sym-X Bid - Ask Last Chg %Ch Vol $Vol #Tr Open-Hi-Lo Year Hi-Lo Last Tr    
GCM - T  
2.1 5.52 · 5.55 1.3 5.55 -0.79 -12.5 840.4 4,878

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Gold X to Merge With Gran Colombia and Guyana Goldfields to Create an Emerging Latin American-Focused Intermediate Gold Producer

The combined entity will continue as Gran Colombia and will be managed by the current Gran Colombia executive team, with corporate headquarters remaining in Toronto. Shareholders of Gran Colombia will own ~60% of the combined company, with Guyana Goldfields and Gold X shareholders owning ~25% and ~15%, respectively, on a basic shares outstanding basis.

Gold X is excited to unlock the potential synergies between its Toroparu project and Guyana Goldfields’ Aurora Project, both of which are located in close proximity to each other in western Guyana. Together with Gran Colombia’s existing mining projects and experience in Latin America, Gold X expects the combined entity will become an attractive intermediate gold producer.

Transaction Highlights

  • Creates a High-Growth, Latin American-Focused Intermediate Gold Producer
    °  Strong pro-forma 2020 production of 275,000 oz1 with production growth to over 500,000 oz/year, based on management estimates, through the development of three near-term growth projects
      °  Toroparu, Aurora Underground, and Marmato (via 74% ownership in Caldas Gold)
    °  Poised to become a consolidator in the Latin American gold sector

     
  • Unlocks Realizable Synergies in Guyana
    °  Toroparu is located ~50km from Aurora and Gran Colombia and Gold X have identified an opportunity to connect the two sites and use existing Aurora infrastructure to develop an optimized production plan for both Toroparu and Aurora gold resources that significantly reduces the upfront capital that would be required to start the Toroparu Open Pit and Aurora Underground projects independently
  • °  Management estimates potential to unlock savings of ~US$200 million based on latest Toroparu and Aurora technical reports
    °  Key savings include use of the Toroparu resource as satellite deposits for near-term gold production from Aurora’s leach processing facility, use of existing mining fleet and camp facilities at Aurora, shared access infrastructure, and consolidated G&A
    °  Full integration plan to be completed post-closing of the Proposal
  •  
  • Enhanced Balance Sheet and Access to Capital
    °  Combined company will have greater than US$100 million in cash in addition to the financing support provided by Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. (“Wheaton”) to fund development
    °  The combined company will also have greater access to equity and debt markets and benefit from Gran Colombia’s Segovia Project’s robust free cash flow

     
  • Highly Accretive Transaction with Strong Re-Rate Potential
    °  The transaction is highly accretive to net asset value per share
    °  Strong potential to re-rate as Gran Colombia enters a new larger peer set due to the resulting benefits of enhanced production, free cash flow and liquidity along with potential increased index inclusion

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Market does not like the deal much! 

GLDX is now Down almost 2% on the day :

2.70 -0.05 -1.8%

(I sold my GLDX shares near the opening, Just the 6,000 I had.  Booked a decent profit at $2.79)

GCM down 13%.

I wonder what Eric Sprott thinks of the deal?  He could kill it, possibly

GUY shareholders still like it, it seems.  Since GUY price is higher.

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These type of surprises keep happening at GCM, I’ve took my profits and completely cashed out. Not saying I can’t get them becoming an enlarged entity, there may be good fits and attractive properties but GCM management keep throwing out unexpected curve balls.

I’m now putting these on a watch mode to maybe revisit in time and not knee jerk back in if they rise again. If they sail away so be it, the board just don’t inspire me they care about ordinary share holders.

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SOMEONE WHO Likes the Deal - wrote this...

RE... :Come on .if they succeed - there's a $1Billion+ prize

looking at the map on the goldx website, there is already a road from toroparu to the aurora gold mine.

goldx website says @$1500 gold and 4.5M oz production the after tax free cash flow would be $1.77 billion!
(Really?? $1,770 Mn / 4.5M = $393 per oz.)
 
it would be even more if they included all 10 mil oz.

even if GUY turned out to be worthless and they never use their 8000 tpd plant, just using guy as an excuse to acquire goldx would be worth it to get that $1.77 billion free cash lol

together the 3 companies do appear to have a lot of synergy. if toroparu just uses guy's plant, then that does not need any additional financing or dilution. maybe a few extra trucks to transport ore. gcm $80mil and guy $22mil gives them over $100 mil cash. if they just do that and accumulate cash from segovia @$1700 gold, they won't need wheaton. later they can self finance guy underground or a second plant for toroparu if they choose to do so.

these people freaking out about dilution, there are times when dilution is good when it is used to purchase something extremely undervalued. what if the price was only $50 mil is the dilution still bad? if the price was only $2 mil, is the dilution still bad? it all depends on the price point of that dilution.
cad$240mil to get back over us$1.77 billion in free cash sounds like a good deal to me.
 
(a two-way deal between GLDX & GUY, partly financed by GCM might also make sense - from what I read here.)

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Four GCM Group co's... update: 10d /

Stock : 5/11/20: change: + pct.%: Vol.
GCM  : C$ 5.52: - $0.82: - 12.9%: 1,263k
GLDX : C$ 2.60: - $0.15: - 5.45%:   451.k
GUY   : C$ 0.80: +$0.10: +14.3%:  6,814k
GCG   : C$ 2.15: +$0.10: +4.88%: 18,000

JgBQN5Q.gif

==

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May be NO DEAL / GCM:$ 5.84 +0.32 | +5.80%

GUY news

the Arrangement Agreement remains in effect and the Board has not changed its recommendation in support of the transaction with Silvercorp.

https://www.juniorminingnetwork.com/junior-miner-news/press-releases/691-tsx/guy/76936-guyana-goldfields-announces-receipt-of-unsolicited-proposal.html
 
/ 2 /
your comment is biased when you only say they have not changed their recommendation but omit the news release saying they are evaluating the new proposal to see if it is superior. clearly the new proposal is better than the 60 cents offer made by svm. the new proposal makes a lot more sense with the synergies, immediately having open pit ore available and guyana experience. svm has no experience in guyana. svm is not extremely undervalued like gcm so guy shareholders get better value merging with gcm.

i don't really care for guy, letting guy go and gcm merging only with goldx would be good too.
 
/ 3 /
well, I disagree.  it's GUY's processing plant that is key, as it open the door for toroparu to start producing in a matter of months (literally), rather than years.  In fact, after giving if a fair amount of thought, it looks like a far better deal than most (today) apparently think it is with it, but without a doubt, a real deal breaker without it.  And if by chance a big fish (or SVM) were to suddenly have an epiphany and move in to snatch this GLDX/GUY combo play away from GCM, well then... GCM wins simply by owning large (cheap) chunks of both sides of that play.  

Clearly this was not the brainchild of anyone at GUY.  Probably not at Sprott either.  Maybe not even GCM.  More likely from someone much closer to and/or deeply familiar with Toroparu, is my guess.  But, what do I know...
 
/ 4 /
merging only with goldx would certainly still be good as they would still get 1.77 billion free cash. my concern with guy is that it is unclear how profitable their current resources are and i read guy did not have a permit for underground mining yet. if they mix goldx open pit with guy underground then that can make it more profitable or run only goldx open pit if in the worst case they don't get underground permit from government. guy is the company that needs the merger the most along with funding to develop underground.

i think gcm management was the one who orchestrated this. they have been looking at guyana for a while now, have experience in the guyana shield, was interested in consolidating the area, bought up a lot of shares of goldx, and we find out now they secretly bought up 5% of guy too. good that the shares they bought would increase in value. it would be hard for somebody else to snatch the deal with gcm holding a lot of goldx and guy shares voting against a different suitor. i did not see svm saying they bought any shares of guy. if gcm exercise their goldx warrants, that would make it almost impossible for anybody else to snatch the guy/goldx combo.

this combo reminds me of tgz buying up the nearby high grade massawa deposit. they had a lot of cost synergy without needing to build a new processing plant and infrastructure. toroparu is also relatively low aisc but with a lot more gold oz than the 2.6 mil oz massawa. tgz was propelled upwards by that purchase, maybe that can happen to gcm too :) tgz is the biggest miner in senegal and similarly gcm would become the biggest miner in guyana.
 
/ 5 /
but for myself ,  I saw my (wtB) warrant go from 4.24 to 3.40 in 1 day
 ,.. why doesnt gldx buy guy and gcm and other player give the money to do that in a form of a debenture or in share part or something else , 
 
/ 6 /
makes no sense... with Marmato alone GCM will never reach the goel being a 500000 oz+ producer ...    look at the presentation ..  after the combination of all assets GCM will own  more as 20  million oz of gold and down the road they will operate 3- large opeations ...   evalation will happen!   GCM goal with Gold X was grabbing Toroparu for cheap thats why they invested in this..why sell this for 3.xx $ ???  its worth 10-15$ per share....

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MORE UPBEAT ASSESSMENT on the 3-way Merger idea

GCM.t: $ 5.93 + 0.41 | + 7.43%

GOLD MARKET HEATS UP WITH FIRST HOSTILE BID OF THE YEAR
 
 
The gold sector is heating up—the Market saw its first hostile takeover move of 2020 this week.
 
Colombian gold producer Gran Colombia (GCM-TSX) announced a plan to consolidate two juniors in nearby Guyana—Gold X Mining Corp (GLDX-TSX), which is friendly—and Guyana Goldfields (GUY-TSX) which is hostile. GCM already owns 22% of GLDX and 5% of GUY.
 
Silvercorp (SVM-TSX) announced a bid for Guyana on April 27 worth 60 cents or 0.119 shares of Silvercorp. Gran Colombia’s bid is 90 cents per share.
 
If successful, the 3 way merger would have 275,000 oz of annual gold production, a quick path to 500,000 oz and $100 million cash. Gran Colombia and Goldx say it would also create about $200 million in synergies between GUY’s Aurora Mine and GLDX’s 7.3 million ounce Toroparu deposit—which is only 50 km away. 
 
Guyana Goldfields has only said they received the bid. Silvercorp has made no comment so far.
 
I think it’s a brilliant move by Gold X CEO Paul Matysek. He has made the synergies between Gold X and Guyana so obvious--so even if this proposed merger doesn’t consummate, he has made Silvercorp very aware of how much sense it makes for them to next take out Gold X. It will put Matysek out of a job though.
 
It makes sense for these two assets to be together. What you have here is a mill without a mine (GUY) and a mine without a mill (GLDX). Toroparu’s ore has similar metallurgy to Aurora, and could feed the Carbon-In-Leach (CIL) plant there.
 
If Gran Colombia is successful and the two acquisitions close, the new team will move the production timetable forward on its 7.3 million ounce Toroparu asset by ~2 years and get there with far less capital—by trucking their ore to Guyana’s operating Aurora mine some 50 km away.
yCTkybRpSkuh5uIi5eQYnSQ3sithKZn6g5V9NTKT
 
Source: Gold X Investor Presentation   
 
Second, the issues with the Aurora Mine have revolved around getting enough high-quality ore to the mill. While the mine has had plenty of problems, there appears to be nothing wrong with the infrastructure.
 
Guyana spent well over $200 million building out this infrastructure over the last 5 years. Replicating it now would cost even more. 
 
In the December Pre-Economic Assessment for Toroparu, capex was estimated at $360 million. But processing that ore at Aurora means much of that expenditure is not needed. 
 
Instead, a road will be built to truck ore from Toroparu to Aurora – this will cost around $11 million. There will be an expansion of the mill, and the upfront Toroparu mine development. The total capital required will be far less than a greenfield operation.
 
Together Toroparu and the Aurora underground can feed the mill. With the pressure off Aurora to “fill the mill”, the focus can be on grade and development. There is a chance that the Aurora mine can more quickly get back on its feet.
 
Matysek estimates that Toroparu could be producing through the Aurora mill within 12 months. 
 
In a brief interview Monday, Matysek said that combining Toroparu with Aurora was always the obvious choice –at first he just did not know how to do it.
 
The problem is Gold X simply hasn’t had the balance sheet to cover an acquisition like Guyana. 
 
That is where Gran Colombia comes in.
 
Gran Colombia appears to be operating as the piggybank of the transaction. They clearly see the synergies that I described above, they already own 20% of Gold X and 5% of Guyana, and they have the balance sheet to both make the deal happen and bring Toroparu into production.
 
But this is a hostile takeover – and that is where it really gets interesting...
===

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Silvercorp, Guyana Goldfields amend merger agreement

Kitco News

Amended merger sweetens pot for Guyana Goldfields shareholders in deal with Silvercorp

Silvercorp Metals Inc. (TSX: SVM, NYSE American: SVM) and Guyana Goldfields Inc. (TSX: GUY) have amended their previously announced merger agreement, the companies reported Sunday.

The deal basically sweetens the pot for shareholders of Guyana Goldfields, with the companies saying the increased offer values Guyana Goldfields at C$227 million. The amended agreement also increases the termination fee to C$9 million that Guyana Goldfields would have to pay Silvercorp if the deal is terminated for certain specified reasons.

The companies said they amended the agreement after Guyana Goldfields received an unsolicited all-cash proposal from a third party. The board of directors of Guyana Goldfields last week rejected an all-stock offer from Gran Colombia Gold Corp. (TSX: GCM) and signaled its intention to keep pursuing a merger with Silvercorp.

With the revised offer, each shareholder of Guyana Goldfields shares will receive, for each share held, C$0.25 in cash and 0.1849 of a Silvercorp share. This will mean total consideration of C$1.30 per share, based on the volume-weighted average price for Silvercorp shares during the five trading days ending Thursday, the company announced.

Under the original agreement announced on April 27, Guyana Goldfields shareholders were to receive either C$0.60 in cash or 0.1195 of a Silvercorp common share.

The companies said both boards of directors voted in favor of the amended transaction unanimously. A circular will be mailed to shareholders of Guyana Goldfields in early June, and special meeting and vote on the transaction is planned for June 29.

The companies said Silvercorp now holds 16,549,000 Guyana Goldfields shares, representing 9.48% of all outstanding shares

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COMMENTS from SH Bullboard

RE:Deal

I personally believe they’re intending to release their plan on Tuesday with the Q1 financials... I think it’s going to be a big day for GCM.T.

I think we’ll hear that they’ve bought several million more GUY.T shares on the open market and I believe that’s going to continue.  SVM offer was lowballing, in the hopes that no one else would make an offer... they aren’t as financially established as GCM.T yet, they’re still building their main asset into production.  I would assume that GCM.T and GoldX also have more connections in the S.A. Region, and in Guyana that SVM does, not to mention I’m sure current GUY.T shareholders are extremely disappointed with their management.  I think it’s goimg to be a battle but GCM.T will come out as the winner ans much stronger from it.

  I think it’s clear that GUY.T  current management is getting some sort of sweetheart deal on the back side of this merger, because SVM states that they intend to keep them and the BOD on after.  I can only imagine how enraged shareholders would be from this.  It shouldn’t be a tough sell GUY.T shareholders.

The Alchemist 
 
+ Gran Colombia has already acquired approximately 5% of Guyana Goldfields' shares, in order to support the chances of its offer for success.
Increased offer is worth C$227 Million to GUY shareholders, so 5% is worth C $11.3 Million
+ Silvercorp now holds 16,549,000 Guyana Goldfields shares, representing 9.48% of all outstanding shares.
 
/ 2 /

Q1 results - Blowout !

https://ceo.ca/@nasdaq/gran-colombia-gold-reports-first-quarter-2020-results
 
+ wow, 24 m US  for q1
+ net income for the first quarter of 2020 of $24.3 million ($0.42 per share)
x4 = 1.68 annualized net income/share.
phenomenal results. so undervalued, it's riduculous.
+ Serafino Iacono, Executive Chairman of Gran Colombia, commenting on the Company’s latest results, said, “Our first quarter results continued to show strength, and that was when gold was more than $100 an ounce lower than where we are now. Quarterly revenue surpassed $100 million for the first time leading to adjusted EBITDA of $50 million. Operating cash flow and Free Cash Flow were up over 50% compared with the first quarter last year. The balance sheet also got stronger as we built up our consolidated cash position to about $100 million and by the end of April, we had reduced our Gold Notes by 40% since the beginning of the year

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Wow!

Analysts target for GCM is C$14

Red Cloud maintains a buy rating, with a target of C$14.00/share. https://www.redcloudfs.com/gran-colombia-gold-corp-tsxgcm-2020-off-to-a-good-start-with-strong-q1-financials/  rate and reply

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