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drbubb

Gran Columbia (GCM.t) : 235,000 oz/yr Gold miner

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PRODUCTION. etc - pg.17

= : PRODUCTION /  v 2020-jan
Mo.: Prod'17: Prod'18: Prod'19:
Q1- :  39,008 :  52,672 : 60,601 >  +15.1%
Q2- :  46,075 :  52,906 : 57,882 >  +14.8%
Q3- :   37.1 K :  57,163 : 56,271 > - 1.56%
Q4- :   52.0K :   55,260 : 56k.Est > +4 %
Yr. =  174.2k : 218.0k : 230k.Est
=== :: 2017 ::  2018 ::  2019 ::  2020 ::
Jan.  00,000: 16,700 : 17,941 : 18,501: +3.1%
Feb.  00,000: 17,339 : 21,335 :
Mar.  00,000: 18,633 : 21,325 :
=Q1: 39,008: 52,672 : 60,601 : +15%;
Apr.  00,000: 16,118 :  20,372 :
May 00,000:  18,675 : 18,528 :: 
Jun. 00,000:  18,400 : 18,882 ::
=Q2: 46.08k: 52.91k : 57,882 :   + 9%
July  00,000: 19,296 : 18,166 ::
Aug. 00,000: 18,747 : 18,710 ::
Sep.  00,000: 19,120 : 19,395 ::
=Q3: 37.10K: 57,163 : 56,271 ::
9m.: 122.2k: 162.75k : 174,754 :  + 7%
Oct.: 17.33K: 18,065 : 20,968 :
Nov.: 17.33K: 18,193 : 21,835 :
11m: 156.8k: 199.0k: 217,600 :
Dec.: 17.33K: 19,002: 22,434 : Monthly record!
=Q4: 52.00K: 55,260 : 65,237 : yr: 239,991
======================= ;
2018A: "218,001 OUNCES, UP 25% OVER 2017" :
2019A: "239,991 OZ. est. ,  UP 10% OVER 2018" :
2020 TARGET: 240,000 ?? / 200,000+ Segovia + 35,000 Marmato

USEFUL CALCULATIONS HERE :

Enterprize Value to-Free Cash Flow = GCM is still cheap!

REx5 / Mark to Market Loss on 2024 Warrants

"who give a chit whether you do or don't buy shares?" - agreed lol

(you owe me for doing the homework for you)

12m warrants at $2.21 = $26.5m
1.7m options at $3.20 average = $5.4m
4.21m shares from debentures at $4.75 = $20m
3.26m warrants first sprott at $5.40 = $17.6m
7.14m warrants second sprott at $6.50 = $46.4m

total cash received on full exercise = $115.9m

"As of today, Gran Colombia has 60,812,630 common shares issued and outstanding and, including the effect of warrants, stock options and convertible debentures, the total would be 88,710,189 common shares on a fully diluted basis."

fully diluted:
market cap 88.7m shares x $5.42 = $480.7m
at end of year net debt of 0, + $40m cash from pp + $115.9m = $155.9m cash
EV (enterprise value) $480.7m - $155.9m = $324.8m

EV/FCF = $324.8m/$70m = 4.6

many miners have zero FCF for an EV/FCF of infinity

which ratio would you rather have, 4.6 or infinity?

kirkland lake which generates a huge amount of free cash currently has an EV/FCF of around 30.

name me a company that has an EV/FCF better than 4.6
 
/ 2 /
Calcs. look resonable.

Did you include the 68 million of Gold Notes in there?*

You may want to look at Atico Mining (ATY) : from 2017: $0.37
JUChkHh.gif

Smaller scale, different risks, Gold Copper  plus new good project as well.
Should easiily beat your numbers by year end  if they don't run into problems
and copper doesn't dive.

If I get a chance I will pay you back
Thanks for looking at the brighter side of things.

BTW. I thought we were all here to try to get the other guy to buy, ,,, or was that sell ...
Anyway G'night
 
*/ 3/
yes the gold notes is within the net debt of zero which does not create shares.

 

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A  good day for GCM : $6.17 +0.35, +6.01% ... 4yr

GCM.wtB: $4.04 +0.20 +5.21%

ecSrIaO.gif

Sprott Money News Weekly Wrap-up - 2.14.20
329 views•Feb 14, 2020

Eric Sprott discusses the effect of the worsening pandemic
on the global economy and the impact this will have on precious metal prices.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WpFgjFGXaC4

Eric feel KL got Detour for a steal -

Gran Colombia Gold Announces Closing of CA$40 Million Private Placement;
Eric Sprott Increases Investment to Approximately 11%

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GCM & Copper

Here's GCM, maybe TOP of channel at: C$6.72 -0.00 = GCM.wtB: C$

TtCH1LR.png

Here's Gold-to-Copper

xx

Here's TKO.t to-GCM.t - could it hit 14X, up from 0.63 ?

WeOpWLF.png

==

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Brilliant week so far for GCM, after this rise I couldn’t resist banking gains; sold a third of my holding at prices around $6.70.

Patience paid off and now pleased with myself, after much frustration.

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I noticed GCM is not at/near the Top of the Channel, and did some lightening up too.

Basically, if GCM.wtB rises 20%, I sell about 20%, leaving the Gross Amount of my investment at a similar level

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= : PRODUCTION /  v 2020-jan
Mo.: Prod'17: Prod'18: Prod'19:
Q1- :  39,008 :  52,672 : 60,601 >  +15.1%
Q2- :  46,075 :  52,906 : 57,882 >  +14.8%
Q3- :   37.1 K :  57,163 : 56,271 > - 1.56%
Q4- :   52.0K :   55,260 : 56k.Est > +4 %
Yr. =  174.2k : 218.0k : 230k.Est
=== :: 2017 ::  2018 ::  2019 ::  2020 ::
Jan.  00,000: 16,700 : 17,941 : 18,501: +3.1%
Feb.  00,000: 17,339 : 21,335 :
Mar.  00,000: 18,633 : 21,325 :
=Q1: 39,008: 52,672 : 60,601 : +15%;
Apr.  00,000: 16,118 :  20,372 :
May 00,000:  18,675 : 18,528 :: 
Jun. 00,000:  18,400 : 18,882 ::
=Q2: 46.08k: 52.91k : 57,882 :   + 9%
July  00,000: 19,296 : 18,166 ::
Aug. 00,000: 18,747 : 18,710 ::
Sep.  00,000: 19,120 : 19,395 ::
=Q3: 37.10K: 57,163 : 56,271 ::
9m.: 122.2k: 162.75k : 174,754 :  + 7%
Oct.: 17.33K: 18,065 : 20,968 :
Nov.: 17.33K: 18,193 : 21,835 :
11m: 156.8k: 199.0k: 217,600 :
Dec.: 17.33K: 19,002: 22,434 : Monthly record!
=Q4: 52.00K: 55,260 : 65,237 : yr: 239,991
======================= ;
2018A: "218,001 OUNCES, UP 25% OVER 2017" :
2019A: "239,991 OZ. est. ,  UP 10% OVER 2018" :
2020 TARGET: 240,000 ?? / 200,000+ Segovia + 35,000 Marmato

===

2020-02-20 09:09 C:GCM 6.40 News Release Gran Colombia produces 18,501 oz Au in January, 2020

==

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Well I took some more profit during the last session in and around $7. Too fast an ascent not to bank some, so half my holding now gone at a tidy profit.

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I agree, and sold a little more.  I still have plenty shares if it goes on rising

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