Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
drbubb

Gran Columbia (GCM.t) : 225,000 oz/yr Gold miner

Recommended Posts

pg11 / Yr.End 12/31: C$2.82 - at $1281 Gold price (0.22%), C$Gold was C$1715 (0.164%)

 

Update: 4/19/19:  C$3.22 v.$2.82 +11.8% in 2019 / 2-yr : 1-yr. Vs 200d : 377d.ma : 610d : 987d. : Mkt.Depth : SH-gcm :

qIgk0QT.gif

Vs. GDXJ: $29.55 vs. $30.22 : - 2.22%

Date------- : GCM.t: CAD$: $Price: ShOS MktVal : 8%-Debs: Date: Cash: EntVal. / $Gold : OZ's/ Prd. years.: 221wt x12.2M
08/10/18: $2.44 x.761= $1.857 48.2M $89.5M: $98.0M: Est.: $28.0: $159.5M /$1219: 131k/200: 0.660: $0.23=$2.81M
10/02/18: $2.40 x.780= $1.872 48.2M $90.2M: $93.1M: Est.: $28.0: $155.3M /$1204: 129k/212: 0.609: $0.19=$2.31M
12/31/18: $2.82 x.733= $2.067 48.2M $99.6M: $83.4M: 12/31 $29? $154.0M /$1281: 120k/217: 0.554: $0.61=$7.44M
01/03/19: $3.18 x.741= $2.356 48.2M $113.M: $83.4M: 12/31 $29? $167.0M /$1295: 129k/217: 0.594: $0.97=$11.8M
01/04/19: $3.15 x.747= $2.353 48.2M $113.M: $83.4M: 12/31 $29? $167.0M /$1284: 130k/217: 0.599: $0.94=$11.5M
02/19/19: $4.42 x.757= $3.340 48.2M $161.M: $80.0 E : 02/?? $30? $211.0M /$1350: 156K/217: 0.720: $1.82=$22.2M
03/15/19: $3.71 x.750= $2.782 48.2M $134.M: $100.M : 03/?? $50? $184.0M /$1296: 142k/223: 0.637: $1.41=$17.2M

NEWS

2019-03-14 08:06 C:GCM 3.69 News Release Gran Colombia produces 21,335 oz Au in February
2019-03-11 18:12 C:GCM 3.68 News Release Gran Colombia has M&I resources of 1.32M oz Au

==

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Gold linked Notes, Total Value Estimate: with Wt.B / vs.GCM / TPRFF : GCM.NT.U

UNITS:
Date : Gold: GCM : Ratio: G/1250 x57%+104%= Debs : Wt2.21: CAD : $USD : 124wt: Comb.: USD$: x512.8:
05/31: 1305: $3.03 : 431. : 104.4 : 59.5 +44.7= 104.2 : $1.40*x0.772 = $1.08 : 13.4% : 117.6 : $2.34: 1200 :
06/29: 1255: $2.88 : 436. : 100.4 : 57.2 +44.7= 101.9 : $1.30*x0.761 = $0.99 : 12.3% : 114.2 : $2.19: 1123 :
10/02: 1204: $2.40 : 502. : 100.0 : 57.0 +44.7= 101.7 : $1.14 x0.780 = $0.89 : 11.0% : 112.7 : $1.88: $964 :
12/31: 1281: $2.82 : 454. : 102.5 : 58.4 +44.7= 103.1 : $1.40 x0.733 = $1.02 : 12.6% : 115.7 : $2.06: 1056 : :
01/03: 1295: $3.18 : 407. : 103.6 : 59.1 +44.7= 103.7 : $1.55 x0.741 = $1.15 : 14.2% : 117.9 : $2.35: 1205 :
=====: ==================================== : *est. Wt. value, x124 wts/deb
Last Col.: $1000/ 1.95= 512.8shs xC%2.52= C$1,292 x0.770= $995, Value of 1% Debs if Converted

GCM etc: GDXJ & MNT.t ... w/o Mux st 377d: w/MUX st: GCM.t only : 12/10/2018: c$2.81 : c$17.58 : $27.76 :

ne83uYX.gif

st:

6Uje7bJ.gif

Date-----: GCM.t : MNT.t : 12.9%L// GDXJ  x10.0%H cad= GJcad: x7.7%
12/30/16: $1.40 : $16.48 : $2.13 //: $31.55 : $3.16 x1.350= 42.59: 3.28
12/29/17: $1.96 : $17.39 : $2.24 //: $34.13 : $3.41 x1.257= 42.90: 3.30
05/28/18: $3.29 : $17.71 : $2.28 //: $32.89* $3.29 x1.299= 42.72: 3.29 - High
06/30/18: $2.88 : $17.44 : $2.25 //: $32.70 : $3.27 x1.314= 42.97: 3.31
08/17/18: $2.13 : $16.35 : $2.11 //: $27.49 : $2.75 x1.306= 35.90: 2.76 - Low
10/04/18: $2.60 : $16.37 : $2.11 //: $27.83 : $2.78 x1.292= 35.59: 2.74
11/01/18: $2.51 : $16.91 : $1.92 //: $28.14 : $2.81 x1.310= 36.86: 2.84
11/14/18: $2.53 : $16.90 : $2.18 //: $26.64 : $2.66 x1.324= 35.27: 2.72
12/10/18: $2.81 : $17.58 : $2.27 //: $27.76 : $2.78 x1.340= 37.20: 2.86
12/31/18: $2.82 : $18.41 : $2.37 //: $30.22 : $3.02 x1.364= 41.22: 3.17
  2/19/19: $4.42 : $18.60 : $3.30 // $34.34 : $3.43  x1.321= 45.31: 3.49
  3/15/19: $3.71 : $18.27 : $2.76 // $32.10 : $3.21  x1.332= 42.76: 3.29

=== : PRODUCTION
Mo.: Prod'17:  Prod'18: Prod'19:
Q1- :  39,008 :  52,672 : 60,601 >  +15.1%
Q2- :  46,075 :  52,906 > +14.8%
Q3- :   37.1 K :  57,163  > +54 %
Q4- :   52.0K :   55,260  > +54 %
===
July:  00,000 : 19,296 :
Aug.:  00,000 : 18,747 :
Sep :  00,000 : 19,120 :
= Q3 37.10K :  57,163 :
Oct.:  17.33K : 18,065 :
Nov:  17.33K :  18,193 :
Dec.  17.33K :  19,002 (aver.18.4k oz in Q4)
= Q4 52.00K : 55,260 :
——  Prod'17: Prod'18: Prod’19:
Jan.  00,000 : 00,000: 17,941  :
Feb.  00,000 : 00,000: 21,335 : New monthly record!
Mar.  00,000: 00,000: 21,325 :
= Q1 39,008 : 52,672: 60,601 : New Quarterly record!
12m: 000.0k : 000.0k : 225.9k 
==================

"218,001 OUNCES, UP 25% OVER 2017"
Guidance for 2019: 210-225k : Mid-217.5K
Cash; US$33M at YE'18, Debt @ $83.38M, end Jan.19
$1.0552 /$1.00 @ $1294.3 /$1250
8.25% x 1.0552= 8.705%

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Production & forthcoming Q4 Announcement

News Release Gran Colombia produces 21,335 oz Au in February

GRAN COLOMBIA GOLD REPORTS NEW MONTHLY GOLD PRODUCTION RECORD IN FEBRUARY 2019; ANNOUNCES DETAILS FOR THE FORTHCOMING FOURTH QUARTER AND YEAR END 2018 RESULTS WEBCAST

Gran Colombia Gold Corp. produced a new monthly record total of 21,335 ounces of gold in February, bringing the total for the first two months of 2019 to 39,276 ounces and the trailing 12-month total gold production at the end of February, 2019, to 223,237 ounces, up 2 per cent over 2018's annual production and near the top end of Gran Colombia's guidance range for 2019 of between 210,000 and 225,000 ounces.

Serafino Iacono, executive co-chairman of Gran Colombia, commenting on the company's latest production results, said: "Our investment in our Segovia operations continues to pay dividends. Our development reached a very high-grade area in our Providencia mine in February where we mined material with between one and two ounces of gold per tonne. This gave us an unexpected boost in production resulting in a new monthly record and bringing Segovia's trailing 12 months total gold production closer toward the 200,000 ounces level."

The Segovia operations set a new monthly record with 19,160 ounces of gold in February, 2019, 12 per cent higher than its previous best month of 17,164 ounces in July, 2018. Gran Colombia processed an average of 1,110 tonnes per day (tpd) in February at its Segovia operations with an average head grade of 21.4 grams per tonne, up from 16.5 g/t last month, driven by high-grade material from the company-operated areas at the Providencia mine...

. . . Fourth quarter and year-end 2018 results webcast

Gran Colombia also announced today that it will release its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year 2018 after market close on Wednesday, March 27, 2019, and will host a conference call and webcast on Thursday, March 28, 2019, at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time to discuss the results.

===

RE:RE:RE:RE:Best grade ever mined there !

the news release says their development just reached that high grade providencia area in feb. their development didn't have access to it before feb. the statement that they are highgrading implies they have a choice. if they were really trying to highgrade then they would mine mostly from providencia, but only 21% of tonnes are from providencia, and if they had the choice of highgrading then they would have been doing that when the price of gold was low at $1080 when they needed the cash rather than at $1300.

over a hundred channel samples of veins were greater than 30g/t at el silencio. the odds are that the average grade of el silencio is higher than 10g/t. the 10g/t must have been what was left over from historic mining. it was historically a very high grade producer. they say development and mechanizing el silencio helped both throughput and grade. sandra k also had many drill holes that were high grade above 10g/t. more drilling probably will increase the average grade since the 2018 drill program increased the grade of m&i. but they are not dependent on finding higher grade when they are increasing throughput to 1500tpd or maybe even 2000tpd.
lumpy13 wrote: But if they know what their reserves are, aren't they highgrading now, meaning that they will be mining lower than average grade in the future?  Improves cashflow in the near term, but will equal out over time.  Or am I missing something?

RE:...Best grade ever mined there !

q1 shaping up to be a record production quarter and with higher gold prices. all they have to do is mine an average 18k oz for march. if by chance the very high grade at providencia continues into march, look out shorts!

Read more at https://stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard?symbol=t.gcm&postid=29488168#KCBYggdRptRX1xCd.99

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Gran Colombia has M&I resources of 1.32M oz Au

Segovia life-of-mine (LOM) minable gold reserves of 688,000 contained ounces effective Dec. 31, 2018

Gran Colombia also announced today that SRK has completed preliminary results of an updated preliminary feasibility study (PFS) for the Segovia operations effective Dec. 31, 2018, and is currently finalizing the updated technical report. The PFS includes a mineral reserve of 688,000 proven and probable ounces of gold based on 1.9 million tonnes of material at an average head grade of 11.0 g/t.

For this PFS, SRK included the geological and resource modelling of the various deposits and mining areas that comprise the operating mine site of the Segovia operations. The associated table shows a breakdown of the mineral reserve as of Dec. 31, 2018, by area and category compared with the total mineral reserves as of Dec. 31, 2017.

Area               Category   Tonnes (kt)  Grade (g/t)  Au metal (koz)

Providencia          Proven           79         11.7              30
Providencia        Probable          319         18.5             190
Sandra K           Probable          171          9.8              54
El Silencio        Probable        1,268          9.3             381
Carla              Probable          104         10.1              34
Dec. 31, 2018 (1)     Total        1,941         11.0             688
Dec. 31, 2017 (2)     Total        1,660         12.4             660
% change
versus previous                      17%         -11%              4%

(1) Ore reserves are reported using a gold cut-off grade ranging 
from 3.25 to 4.31 g/t depending on mining area and mining method. The
cut-off grade calculations assume a gold price of $1,275 per ounce, 
metallurgical recovery of 90.5 per cent, smelting and refining 
charges of $6 per ounce, general and administrative expenses of $25
per tonne, processing cost of $24 per tonne, and projected LOM 
mining costs ranging from $71 per tonne to 110 per tonne. The 
reserves are valid as of Dec. 31, 2018. 

BACK of envelope: trading at 1/3 of Value

688k oz x (11.0 gpt - 4.0)/ 11.0 got = 438k x $1300= $569M
Ent.Val.: $184M // $569M = 32.3% @ C$3.71 = us$2.78

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Bullboard Comment: "GCM and short interest outstanding : 28th of FEB."

In this posting I want to give an overview about the outstanding short positioning on GCM CN and share some thoughts.

Data is retrieved out of Bloomberg.

 

Short interest in GCM has been increasing steadily since the summer of 2018 and has almost doubled since the beginning of the year (from 566k to 1.116m).

 

At the end of February, Bloomberg is reporting a short interest of 1.167.448 shares. The current float is 48.2mm shares out, so the short base is around 2.4%.

This is definitely not dramatically high, but on a relative basis is seems high though.

Because take into account that a lot of the shares are locked up and tied away, and GCM hardly enjoys institutional coverage from the long side, let alone that the market is engaging this from the short side.

I.E. Who is shorting this? I doubt that many HFs or Investment banks have the risk framework to trade this name (from the short side).

Is retail side able to mass up this short?

 

Why would someone sell 563k shares of GCM short since mid-jan to end-feb?

In February market was already anticipating good positive drilling- and financial results.

I don’t see the rationale for selling short GCM.

Unless, if you would have more information. Information that the company was working on a capital increase for instance?

GMP Securities and Scotia Capital were the leads of this operations. Remember these names.

The next data print will show us much more. GCM closed at a high $4.42 on the 28th which came together with the increase in shorts. Someone was selling 225k shares of GCM shorts since we popped through that $4.0 number (and made a quick c$180k profit, bravo). The sell-off only started on 1th of March. The short seller(s) had the opportunity to close out (part of) his short in the last few weeks with the downward price action. On the 1th and 2th of March, in total 2.4mm shares of GCM did trade. That is ample of liquidity to close part of that short.

Date —---- Short Interest : change
02/28/2019 : 1,167,448 : 225,632
02/15/2019 :    941,816 : 174,034
01/31/2019 :    767,782  : 164,943
01/15/2019 :    602,839 :  36,148
12/31/2018 :    566,691  :  -2,882
12/14/2018 :    569,573  :  -1,887
11/30/2018 :    571,460  : -15602
11/15/2018 :    587,062  :  41,581
10/31/2018 :   545,481  : 126753
10/15/2018 :   418,728  : -55865
 9/28/2018 :   474,593  : -14408
 9/14/2018 :   489,001  : 381601
 8/31/2018 :   107,400  :   63977
 8/15/2018 :     43,423  :-248377
Read more at https://stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard?symbol=t.gcm&postid=29489478#4VT27c5YwfMFdcsr.99

( Warrants? There are Over 12M... now deep in the money.  Holders of those may be shorting GCM.)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I’ve took more of my money off last week, shame I didn’t cash more above $4 like yourself Dr B.

However, I’ve averaged around 40% return without doing an exact calculation, so I can’t be too unhappy, yet somehow feel opportunity missed.

Will see how my fingers itch with remaining 50% left as still well in profit, just prefer to add to Wallbridge position amongst others.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have started buying the warrants, using money from selling the GCM stock at higher levels/

gcm.t ... update

uSh53un.gif

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

"ARBITRAGE" - seems like some GCM posters have never heard (or properly understood) this word.

The warrants were too cheap, so people were buying the warrants and selling the shares.

And some people got SHORT by doing that aggressively. Some posters on the Bullboard seemed confused - like these guys:

RE:GCM and short interest outstanding : 28th of FEB
Latest short report indicates a reduction of 105,253 shares, leaving the outstanding short position (as of March 15) at 1,062,195 shares.

Over a million shares remaining short is one heck of a LOT of shares to cover on as low a volume as this is prone to trade at.  And, it doesn't make much of any sense to me that warrant holders would be holding it short either.  The only convertible debt (this new issue) is too far out of the money to make any sense, nor does it seem to make sense why the 2024 warrant holders (that have deep in the money for some time now) would bother shorting it just to continue holding the warrant that long ... unless they thought price was going lower and they would close the short.

What am I missing?  Anyone care to speculate?

/ 2 /

Given the time frame of when the short position grew to that size... I'm rather inclined to suspect there may have been a fair bit of shorting going on in front of an anticipated (lower priced) equity offering.  But, that deal was very abruptly canceled (March 1.)  And, considering how few shares the short position has been reduced the first half of March, I'm also inclined to think there will continue to be some serious upward presure on the stock price for some time yet... much more so if gold continues its march back towards 1350.  And, if/when by change the price rises (or is pushed) back over 4, there just might be a bit of a rush to get short positions closed...
but, what do I know, eh?

Read more at https://stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard#WWukyjpffZY7b40E.99

In my case: Because the wts. were relatively cheaper,

I downsized my GCM share position as I bought warrants - But I never got to the point where I had enough cheap wts, that I was shorting shares

Now the arbitrage opportunity is smaller, so it makes sense to hold both positions (each well in excess of 10K shs & 10K wts), as I await higher prices.

Then I will SELL first whichever side is most highly valued (relatively over-valued)

GCM.wt.b vs GCM ... 2-yrs : fr. 4/24/17 : 9/15/18 : C$2.21 Strike price, April 30, 2024 expiry, 12.1m wtB outstanding

H2LoRBi.gif

: fr. 4/24/17 : 9/15/18 :

9CWhY8K.gif

DATE=C$: GCM.t Wt.B-, vol.-- : Ratio: ITM-$: TimeV: 50%i: AdjTV, as%G :
09/06/18: $2.16: 0.710, 00.0k : 32.9%: 0.000: 0.710 : 0.000 : 0.710 : 32.9% :
09/28/18: $2.25: 0.970, 00.0k : 43.1%: 0.040: 0.930 : 0.020 : 0.950 : 42.2% :
10/31/18: $2.32: 0.910, 66.8k : 39.2%: 0.110: 0.820 : 0.055 : 0.875 : 37.7% :
11/30/18: $2.53: 1.280, 22.1k : 50.6%: 0.320: 0.960 : 0.160 : 1.120 : 44.3% :
12/12/18: $2.90: 1.400, 29.7k : 48.3%: 0.690: 0.710 : 0.345 : 1.055 : 36.4% :
12/31/18: $2.82: 1.400, 00.8k : 49.6%: 0.610: 0.790 : 0.305 : 1.095 : 38.8% :
01/03/19: $3.18: 1.590, 54.5k : 50.0%: 0.970: 0.620 : 0.485 : 1.105 : 34.7% :
01/28/19: $3.36: 1.630, 26.7k : 48.5% : 1.150: 0.480 : 0.575 : 1.055 : 31.4% :

02/28/19: $4.37: $2.48, 15.9k : 56.8% : 2.160: 0.320 : 1.080 : 1.400 : wt.High Close !
02/28/19: $4.40: $2.41, 15.9k : 54.7% : 2.200: 0.210 : 1.100 : 1.310 :
03/21/19: $3.80: $1.90, 33.9k : 50.0% : 1.590: 0.310 : 0.795 : 0.795 :
==============
Average: $2.43: 1.054 : 43.4%: 0.220: 0.834 : 0.110 : 0.944: 38.8% :

Default now seems to be: Wt.B trades at 50% of GCM.

At higher prices, the Pct, should rise, since if wts are 50% of GCM at $4.42, there will be zero TV.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, drbubb said:

"ARBITRAGE" - seems like some GCM posters have never heard (or properly understood) this word.

The warrants were too cheap, so people were buying the warrants and selling the shares.

And some people got SHORT by doing that aggressively. Some posters on the Bullboard seemed confused - like these guys:

RE:GCM and short interest outstanding : 28th of FEB
Latest short report indicates a reduction of 105,253 shares, leaving the outstanding short position (as of March 15) at 1,062,195 shares.

Over a million shares remaining short is one heck of a LOT of shares to cover on as low a volume as this is prone to trade at.  And, it doesn't make much of any sense to me that warrant holders would be holding it short either.  The only convertible debt (this new issue) is too far out of the money to make any sense, nor does it seem to make sense why the 2024 warrant holders (that have deep in the money for some time now) would bother shorting it just to continue holding the warrant that long ... unless they thought price was going lower and they would close the short.

What am I missing?  Anyone care to speculate?

/ 2 /

Given the time frame of when the short position grew to that size... I'm rather inclined to suspect there may have been a fair bit of shorting going on in front of an anticipated (lower priced) equity offering.  But, that deal was very abruptly canceled (March 1.)  And, considering how few shares the short position has been reduced the first half of March, I'm also inclined to think there will continue to be some serious upward presure on the stock price for some time yet... much more so if gold continues its march back towards 1350.  And, if/when by change the price rises (or is pushed) back over 4, there just might be a bit of a rush to get short positions closed...
but, what do I know, eh?

Read more at https://stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard#WWukyjpffZY7b40E.99

In my case: Because the wts. were relatively cheaper,

I downsized my GCM share position as I bought warrants - But I never got to the point where I had enough cheap wts, that I was shorting shares

Now the arbitrage opportunity is smaller, so it makes sense to hold both positions (each well in excess of 10K shs & 10K wts), as I await higher prices.

Then I will SELL first whichever side is most highly valued (relatively over-valued)

GCM.wt.b vs GCM ... 2-yrs : fr. 4/24/17 : 9/15/18 : C$2.21 Strike price, April 30, 2024 expiry, 12.1m wtB outstanding

H2LoRBi.gif

: fr. 4/24/17 : 9/15/18 :

9CWhY8K.gif

DATE=C$: GCM.t Wt.B-, vol.-- : Ratio: ITM-$: TimeV: 50%i: AdjTV, as%G :
09/06/18: $2.16: 0.710, 00.0k : 32.9%: 0.000: 0.710 : 0.000 : 0.710 : 32.9% :
09/28/18: $2.25: 0.970, 00.0k : 43.1%: 0.040: 0.930 : 0.020 : 0.950 : 42.2% :
10/31/18: $2.32: 0.910, 66.8k : 39.2%: 0.110: 0.820 : 0.055 : 0.875 : 37.7% :
11/30/18: $2.53: 1.280, 22.1k : 50.6%: 0.320: 0.960 : 0.160 : 1.120 : 44.3% :
12/12/18: $2.90: 1.400, 29.7k : 48.3%: 0.690: 0.710 : 0.345 : 1.055 : 36.4% :
12/31/18: $2.82: 1.400, 00.8k : 49.6%: 0.610: 0.790 : 0.305 : 1.095 : 38.8% :
01/03/19: $3.18: 1.590, 54.5k : 50.0%: 0.970: 0.620 : 0.485 : 1.105 : 34.7% :
01/28/19: $3.36: 1.630, 26.7k : 48.5% : 1.150: 0.480 : 0.575 : 1.055 : 31.4% :

02/28/19: $4.37: $2.48, 15.9k : 56.8% : 2.160: 0.320 : 1.080 : 1.400 : wt.High Close !
02/28/19: $4.40: $2.41, 15.9k : 54.7% : 2.200: 0.210 : 1.100 : 1.310 :
03/21/19: $3.80: $1.90, 33.9k : 50.0% : 1.590: 0.310 : 0.795 : 0.795 :
==============
Average: $2.43: 1.054 : 43.4%: 0.220: 0.834 : 0.110 : 0.944: 38.8% :

Default now seems to be: Wt.B trades at 50% of GCM.

At higher prices, the Pct, should rise, since if wts are 50% of GCM at $4.42, there will be zero TV.

 

 

Yeah I got what you were saying and has I’d seen the disconnect too; don’t know why in truth, I just don’t do the warrants.

Totally get your position though.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It is up to you to play it as you like.

The stock pays no dividend, so there is no cash flow disadvantage in holding the wts

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

SOLID EARNINGS for GCM - I am surprised the stock did not close higher

"adjusted EBITDA(1) of $23.7 million for the fourth quarter of 2018" 

Gran Colombia loses $3.37-million (U.S.) in 2018

2019-03-27 18:40 ET - News Release

Mr. Mike Davies reports

GRAN COLOMBIA GOLD REPORTS FOURTH QUARTER AND FULL YEAR 2018 RESULTS; REACHES NEW HIGHS FOR PRODUCTION, ADJUSTED EBITDA AND OPERATING CASH FLOW; BALANCE SHEET STRENGTHENED; INCREASING FOCUS ON GROWTH PIPELINE

Key EXCERPTS:

+ Adjusted EBITDA increased by 36% over last year, surpassing the $100 million mark for the first time, and being a key catalyst in the 58% increase in our operating cash flow to almost $80 million and the 72% increase in our free cash flow(1) to $44 million... The Company reported adjusted EBITDA(1) of $23.7 million for the fourth quarter of 2018 bringing the full year 2018 adjusted EBITDA to a total of $102.4 million, up 36% over 2017, driven by production growth, better realized gold prices and continued efforts to control operating costs.

+ Our debt refinancing earlier in 2018 did exactly what we hoped for, lifting the dilution overhang off of our stock and we strengthened our balance sheet, increasing our cash and cash equivalents to $35.6 million, and reducing our debt by 37% to $88.3 million, by the end of 2018.

+ For the fourth quarter of 2018, total cash costs and AISC averaged $698 per ounce and $929 per ounce, respectively, bringing the full year 2018 averages to $680 per ounce and $907 per ounce, respectively. For 2019, the Company continues to expect that its total cash costs and AISC averages for the full year will remain below $720 per ounce and $950 per ounce, respectively.

+ Adjusted net income(1) for the fourth quarter of 2018 was $14.3 million, or $0.30 per share, up from $9.1 million, or $0.44 per share, in the fourth quarter last year reflected the favorable impact on income tax expense in the fourth quarter of 2018 arising from the Colombian tax reform measures announced in December 2018 that will see a further reduction in future income tax rates. For the full year, adjusted net income in 2018 increased to $42.3 million, or $1.22 per share, compared with $22.9 million, or $1.13 per share, in 2017, primarily reflecting the year-over-year improvement in adjusted EBITDA.

+ In 2018, the Company completed approximately 26,800 meters of drilling at the Segovia Operations , leading to an updated Mineral Resource estimate as of December 31, 2018 with 3.5 million tonnes at a grade of 11.8 g/t totalling 1.3 million ounces of gold in Measured and Indicated Resources, up 7% from last year. Inferred Resources increased to 3.6 million tonnes at a grade of 10.1 g/t totalling 1.2 million ounces of gold, up 4% compared to last year. The Company also reported an updated Mineral Reserve for Segovia with a total of 1.9 million tonnes at an average grade of 11.0 g/t representing 688,000 proven and probable ounces of gold as of December 31, 2018, up 4% compared to last year and replacing what the Company mined in 2018.

The Company completed approximately 8,200 meters of drilling in 2018 at its Marmato Project , outlining two new zones of Deeps-style mineralization and continuing to increase confidence in the geological model as it moves toward completion of technical studies in 2019 for the expansion of underground mining operations.

In 2018, the Company also announced that drilling carried out by IAMGOLD over the last two years on the Company's Zancudo Project has identified a new manto structure in the North Zone and a potential ore shoot on both the Manto Antiguo and Manto Inferior structures in the South Zone, all of which merit further evaluation.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GCM. t compared with GDXJ ... 10d : C$3.75 -2.09% (US$2.81), GDXJ: $31.71 -3.56%

xx

Ratio: TPRFF to GDXJ : 10-day  : (US$2.81), GDXJ: $31.71 = r-8.86%

YdXBo64.png

GCM.t/ TPRFF vs. GDXJ, GORO ... update :

SFgttNQ.gif

==

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

BULLBOARD Comments - on Reserve Life etc

Reserve life of 3 years at 220,000 oz/year - Too Cheap?  Why?

I am very new to this story, as in stumbled on the name one hour ago. Help me out here....

The GCM valuation appears to be dirt cheap based on trailing profit and margins. Elephant in the room is that the P&P reserve life of 688,000 oz will only get them through 36 months or less, depending on ramp up.
With exploration being conducted in 2019, does anyone have any commentary on potential reserve grades in undeveloped area. What if they grades are low or not significant?
..I assume that this is the reason for the discount that it is currently trading at. 

/ 2 /

a few years ago gcm had zero p&p ounces. if you only look through the narrow tunnel p&p, you would have shorted gcm expecting it to go out of business with zero p&p ounces, and then gone crazy watching production dramatically increase every year.

/ 3 /

The discount is based on the history of the company and the mines. This company had a market cap around US$1bn with less production than it has now when it bought Marmato quite a while ago. But then costs were high, the gold price went down, they took too much leverage and then they ran into problems with artisanal miners and were blocked from developing Marmato as an open pit. 

Shareholders got smoked and there are a lot of gold investors who won’t get involved with a stock that has burned them before. They now have cash flow and access to capital markets to invest in the mines. They have a plan for Segovia and a plan for Marmato. It takes a while for investors to notice but maybe when it gets big enough for GDXJ, they will notice.

RE:just start my new position

marketcap is below 3x earnings now and below 2x Ebidta ... absolutely strange...      i already own a lot of shares  sold 1/4 of the position near 4.50 CAD  ...i will buy again near 3 - 3.20 CAD ... not sure this stock will reach this target...  

Read more at https://stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard#tOCexuUAVbE12ys2.99

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

March 28th Presentation : > http://s21.q4cdn.com/834539576/files/Q4-2018-Results-Presentation.pdf

HIGHLIGHTs

1 PbtDaSf.png
2 u9xbUIz.png

3 v0pwRf6.png
4 gRH7wo1.png
5 QuSrLCH.png
Priorities

1.Complete CA$20M bought deal private placement of convertible debentures.

2.Continue implementation of optimized mine plan at Segovia:Expand infrastructure to access deep levels at El Silencio and Providencia.Continue ventilation improvements at El Silencio and commence Sandra K.Continue El Chocho tailings storage construction and commission filter press.

3.Expand planned 20,000m drilling program at Segovia with bought deal proceeds to accelerate step-out and brownfield drilling to increase reserves for production growth and mine life extension.

4.Complete technical studies for underground expansion project at Marmato.

5.Provide technical support to Sandspring; monitor opportunity in Venezuela.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Gran Columbian Gold & other favorites

GCM.t ... update : @ $3.44

Yok3wMj.gif

Some favorites : ROXG.t, GORO... chart: +SSP :

DSaedc9.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Nice presentation and I suppose I’ve reflected on yours and others comments this week, so been adding more back with WM.t profits.

Seem to have a nice flip flop between the pair in weighting’s, more luck than anything but they seemed to have risen and fallen conveniently for me to do so.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have been doing the same, but not as efficiently as would be ideal

I still like GCM's chart

6Q3MQIP.gif

Been investing in ROXG.t , GORO and LAM.t also -but in smaller size.

Was very disppointed with MUX in recent months

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GCM is still "in a stall", awaiting a catalyst

GCM.t ... update :

sDgrosS.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GOOD NEWS

Gran Colombia produces 60,601 oz Au in Q1

2019-04-11 07:19 ET - News Release

Mr. Serafino Iacono reports

GRAN COLOMBIA GOLD ANNOUNCES NEW QUARTERLY GOLD PRODUCTION RECORD OF 60,601 OUNCES IN FIRST QUARTER OF 2019; SEGOVIA OPERATIONS' TRAILING 12 MONTHS GOLD PRODUCTION SURPASSES 200,000 OUNCES; SIGNS CONTRACT WITH GOLDSPOT DISCOVERIES TO USE ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE IN SEGOVIA'S EXPLORATION

Gran Colombia Gold Corp. produced a total of 21,325 ounces of gold in March bringing the total for the first quarter of 2019 to 60,601 ounces, a new quarterly record and up 15 per cent over the first quarter of 2018. This brings the trailing 12-month total gold production at the end of March, 2019, to 225,930 ounces, up 4 per cent over 2018's annual production and at the top end of Gran Colombia's guidance range for 2019 of between 210,000 and 225,000 ounces.

Serafino Iacono, executive chairman of Gran Colombia, commenting on the company's latest production results, said: "We are very pleased to begin 2019 with another strong quarter of operating performance. At our flagship Segovia operations, our investment in the expansion of our mines has increased our daily tonnes processed in the first quarter of 2019 from the company-operated areas by 11 per cent compared with the annual average for 2018. The expansion of the Maria Dama plant to 1,500 tonnes per day is on track for completion in the second quarter this year, so we will have additional capacity available to handle our expected near-term growth. Our first quarter 2019 gold production has also benefited from higher grades at both our Providencia and El Silencio mines, reaffirming our confidence in the high-grade nature of our mining title as we proceed to accelerate our exploration campaign for the next two years following the completion of the bought-deal private placement last week. We were also pleased to see an improvement in the mining rate at the Marmato mine in March, raising its monthly production by 22 per cent compared with the average for the first two months of 2019 and getting its quarterly performance back on track with our expectations for this year. We will be reporting our financial results for the first quarter of 2019 on or about May 15, 2019."

The Segovia operations had another solid month in March with gold production of 18,970 ounces bringing the total for the first quarter of 2019 to a new quarterly record of 54,386 ounces, up 17 per cent over the first quarter of 2018. Gran Colombia processed an average of 1,112 tonnes per day (tpd) at its Segovia operations in the first quarter of 2019, up 19 per cent from the first quarter last year, with an average head grade of 18.8 g/t, up from 16.1 g/t in the first quarter of 2018. The key driver was a 36-per-cent increase in high-grade material from the company-operated areas at the Providencia mine which contributed 21 per cent of the total tonnes processed in the first quarter of 2019 at an average head grade of 34.8 g/t, up from 25.4 g/t in the first quarter last year. The company's mine development and mechanization in the company-operated areas of the El Silencio mine have also helped to increase both the tonnes mined and the average head grades from this mine in the first quarter of 2019 compared with the first quarter last year. This brings Segovia's trailing 12-month total gold production at the end of March, 2019, to 200,964 ounces, up 4 per cent over 2018's annual production.

At the Marmato operations, March's gold production of 2,355 ounces reflected the impact of some recent development work which increased tonnes processed to 1,090 tpd at an average head grade of 2.5 g/t. This brings Marmato's total production for the first quarter of 2019 to 6,215 ounces, on par with the first quarter of 2018, and its trailing 12-month total gold production at the end of March, 2019, to 24,966 ounces, also on par with 2018's annual production.

Gran Colombia engages Goldspot Discoveries Corp. to use artificial intelligence in its forthcoming exploration campaign at its Segovia operations

Gran Colombia also announced today that it has engaged the team of expert geologists and data scientists at Goldspot Discoveries to use machine learning to identify new drilling targets at its Segovia operations to minimize exploration risk and increase discovery rates. Goldspot will use its geoscience and machine science expertise to clean, unify and analyze Gran Colombia's exploration data at Segovia and then produce both 2-D and 3-D targets for the forthcoming exploration program. Goldspot will also deliver newly constructed lithological and mineralization models, new geophysical products produced through the reprocessing of the raw data and new structural interpretations and models.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Great Report - on a Down Day for Gold

GLD : $121.95 -$1.58, -1.28% vol. 11.6M
GCM.t $ 3.67 +$0.09, +2.51% vol. 73,783 / relative: +3.79%

RE: waiting for a down day in gold ?

Those are good numbers. Q1 report is going to look very, very good. 
Once a few others really realize what is going on here, stock will move higer.

Read more at https://stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard?symbol=t.gcm&postid=29612313#vwD3lJ2YE607cq3T.99

== PRODUCTION ==

= Q1 39,008: 52,672 : 60.601: + 15.1%
= Q2 46,075: 52,906 :
= Q3 37.10K : 57,163 :
Oct.:  17.33K : 18,065 :
Nov:  17.33K :  18,193 :
Dec.  17.33K :  19,002 (aver.18.4k oz in Q4)
= Q4 52.00K : 55,260 :
——  Prod'17: Prod'18: Prod’19:
Jan.  00,000 : 00,000: 17,941  :
Feb.  00,000 : 00,000: 21,335 : New monthly record!
Mar.  00,000 : 00,000: 21,325 :
= Q1 39,008 : 52,672: 60,601 : New Quarterly record!
12m: 000.0k : 000.0k : 225.9k

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

SWITCHING Strategy

WM > GCM > WM > GCM ...

tqPI7pY.png

The latest switch... would have been selling WM to buy GCM @12.5%.  I do sell some WM recently, and Bought GCM.wt.B at lower levels

(I find it amazing how well some of these Ratios look on charts.)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, drbubb said:

SWITCHING Strategy

WM > GCM > WM > GCM ...

tqPI7pY.png

The latest switch... would have been selling WM to buy GCM @12.5%.  I do sell some WM recently, and Bought GCM.wt.B at lower levels

(I find it amazing how well some of these Ratios look on charts.)

For someone who managed it purely on instinct(call it luck if you wish), it’s definitely amazing, as it’s not a strategy, more just happened.

Very revealing Dr B.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GCM warrants-B - versus GCM.t. Trades at about 50% ... Ticker for the warrants in the US is TPRXF.

GCM.wt.b vs GCM ... 2-yrs : fr. 4/24/17 : C$2.21 strike price, April 30, 2024 expiry, 12.1m outstanding

GQwGmz7.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

OS Debt to Decline by $4.9M. EV will rise by 4.9 / 48.1M = 10 cents

Gran Colombia partial redemption of 8.25% gold notes

2019-04-17 20:38 ET - Miscellaneous

The Toronto Stock Exchange reports that Gran Colombia Gold Corp. will redeem $4,875,000 (U.S.) of its outstanding 8.25 per cent senior secured gold-linked notes due 2024 on April 30, 2019. According to the TSX, the company will pay approximately 6.01384 U.S. cents per $1 (U.S.) principal amount of the notes, representing an amortization payment of approximately 5.84708 U.S. cents per $1 (U.S.) principal amount and a gold premium of approximately 0.16676 U.S. cent per $1 (U.S.) principal amount. The record date for the redemption is April 23, 2019.

The TSX reports that the notes remaining will begin trading at the open on April 22, 2019, on a postredemption basis, under the current symbol, GCM.NT.U, and the current Cusip number, No. 38501D AL 9. For more information, see the company's news release dated April 16, 2019.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Update: 4/19/19:  C$3.22 v.$2.82 +11.8% in 2019 / 2-yr : 1-yr. Vs 200d : 377d.ma : 610d : 987d. : Mkt.Depth : SH-gcm :

qIgk0QT.gif

Vs. GDXJ: $29.55 vs. $30.22 : - 2.22%

Kho1jgu.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

×