ARIS (ex.GCM) 200k > 350k+ oz/yr Gold miner

[hector]

I wasn't planning on letting mine go at $4, but might make sense if you have got alot.

pg10 / Yr.End 12/31: C$2.82 - at $1281 Gold price (0.22%), C$Gold was C$1715 (0.164%)

Update: 1/16/19:  C$3.46 +22.7% in 2019 / 1-yr. Vs 200d : 377d.ma : 610d : 987d. : Mkt.Depth : SH-gcm :

Date------- : GCM.t: CAD$: $Price: ShOS MktVal : 8%-Debs: Date: Cash: EntVal. / $Gold : OZ's/ Prd. years.: 221wtx12.2M
08/10/18: $2.44 x.761= $1.857 48.2M $89.5M: $98.0M: Est.: $28.0: $159.5M /$1219: 131k/200: 0.660: $0.23=$2.81M
10/02/18: $2.40 x.780= $1.872 48.2M $90.2M: $93.1M: Est.: $28.0: $155.3M /$1204: 129k/212: 0.609: $0.19=$2.31M
12/31/18: $2.82 x.733= $2.067 48.2M $99.6M: $83.4M: 12/31 $29? $154.0M /$1281: 120k/217: 0.554: $0.61=$7.44M
01/03/19: $3.18 x.741= $2.356 48.2M $113.M: $83.4M: 12/31 $29? $167.0M /$1295: 129k/217: 0.594: $0.97=$11.8M
01/04/19: $3.15 x.747= $2.353 48.2M $113.M: $83.4M: 12/31 $29? $167.0M /$1284: 130k/217: 0.599: $0.94=$11.5M
=========

[drbubb]

Gold linked Notes, Total Value Estimate: with Wt.B / vs.GCM / TPRFF : GCM.NT.U

UNITS:
Date : Gold: GCM : Ratio: G/1250 x57%+104%= Debs : Wt2.21: CAD : $USD : 124wt: Comb.: USD$: x512.8:
05/31: 1305: $3.03 : 431. : 104.4 : 59.5 +44.7= 104.2 : $1.40*x0.772 = $1.08 : 13.4% : 117.6 : $2.34: 1200 :
06/29: 1255: $2.88 : 436. : 100.4 : 57.2 +44.7= 101.9 : $1.30*x0.761 = $0.99 : 12.3% : 114.2 : $2.19: 1123 :
10/02: 1204: $2.40 : 502. : 100.0 : 57.0 +44.7= 101.7 : $1.14 x0.780 = $0.89 : 11.0% : 112.7 : $1.88: $964 :
12/31: 1281: $2.82 : 454. : 102.5 : 58.4 +44.7= 103.1 : $1.40 x0.733 = $1.02 : 12.6% : 115.7 : $2.06: 1056 : :
01/03: 1295: $3.18 : 407. : 103.6 : 59.1 +44.7= 103.7 : $1.55 x0.741 = $1.15 : 14.2% : 117.9 : $2.35: 1205 :
=====: ==================================== : *est. Wt. value, x124 wts/deb
Last Col.: $1000/ 1.95= 512.8shs xC%2.52= C$1,292 x0.770= $995, Value of 1% Debs if Converted

GCM etc: GDXJ & MNT.t ... w/o Mux st 377d: w/MUX st: GCM.t only : 12/10/2018: c$2.81 : c$17.58 : $27.76 :

st:

Date-----: GCM.t : MNT.t : 12.9%L// GDXJ  x10.0%H cad= GJcad: x7.7%
12/30/16: $1.40 : $16.48 : $2.13 //: $31.55 : $3.16 x1.350= 42.59: 3.28
12/29/17: $1.96 : $17.39 : $2.24 //: $34.13 : $3.41 x1.257= 42.90: 3.30
05/28/18: $3.29 : $17.71 : $2.28 //: $32.89* $3.29 x1.299= 42.72: 3.29 - High
06/30/18: $2.88 : $17.44 : $2.25 //: $32.70 : $3.27 x1.314= 42.97: 3.31
08/17/18: $2.13 : $16.35 : $2.11 //: $27.49 : $2.75 x1.306= 35.90: 2.76 - Low
10/04/18: $2.60 : $16.37 : $2.11 //: $27.83 : $2.78 x1.292= 35.59: 2.74
11/01/18: $2.51 : $16.91 : $1.92 //: $28.14 : $2.81 x1.310= 36.86: 2.84
11/14/18: $2.53 : $16.90 : $2.18 //: $26.64 : $2.66 x1.324= 35.27: 2.72
12/10/18: $2.81 : $17.58 : $2.27 //: $27.76 : $2.78 x1.340= 37.20: 2.86
12/31/18: $2.82 : $18.41 : $2.37 //: $30.22 : $3.02 x1.364= 41.22: 3.17

========

PRODUCTION: 18,193 oz in Nov. 2018; 19,002 in Dec.

=== : PRODUCTION
Mo.: Prod'17:  Prod'18:
Q1- :  39,008 :  52,672 /3= 17,557 ave.
Q2- :  46,075 :  52,906 : + 14.8%
H1  :  85,084 : 105,578 : + 24.1%
July:  00,000 :  19,296 :
Aug.:  00,000 :  18,747 :
Sep :  00,000 :  19,120 :
Q3- :   37.1 K :  57,163 > +54%
9mos: 122. K : 162.7k > +33%
====
Oct.:  17.33K :  18,065 :
Nov:  17.33K :  18,193 :
Dec.  17.33K :  19,002 (aver.18.4k oz in Q4)
==================
Q4- :   52.  K :  55,260 > +54%
12mo: 174. K : 218.001 > +25% vs 2017 Total
Ave.M: 14.5K : 18.2K - average per month

"218,001 OUNCES, UP 25% OVER 2017"
Guidance for 2019: 210-225k : Mid-217.5K
Cash; US$33M at YE'18, Debt @ $83.38M, end Jan.19
$1.0552 /$1.00 @ $1294.3 /$1250
8.25% x 1.0552= 8.705%

[jerpy]

18 hours ago, drbubb said:

I am pleased, of course.

Like other people in a situation like this, I wish I had bought more - haha/

So far, I have only done minor selling, but somewhere near $4.00 or so, I might let bigger chunks go

GCM.t ... long chart :

Not the only one pleased and wishing he’d bought more.

Great call though, can please not cause a slump at $4 😊

[drbubb]

DEBT coming down fast > $4.88M per quarter = $19.5 Million per annum

At 8.25%, that reduces interest expense by $1.6M each year / 48.15M shs = 3.3 cents/sh., rise in EPS?  (pre-tax)

Quarterly Gold Note Repayment on January 31, 2019 

Gran Colombia Gold Corp. (TSX: GCM, OTCQX: TPRFF) also announced today the details for the forthcoming quarterly repayment of its 8.25% Senior
Secured Gold-Linked Notes due 2024 (the “Gold Notes”) (TSX: GCM.NT.U) as follows:

Payment date: January 31, 2019
Record date: January 24, 2019
Cash payment amount: Approximately US$0.0571985 per US$1.00 principal amount of Gold Notes representing an amortization payment of the
principal amount issued and outstanding of approximately US$0.0552407 per US$1.00 principal amount of Gold Notes and a gold premium of
approximately US$0.0019578 per US$1.00 principal amount of Gold Notes.

The aggregate amount of the cash payments on the Payment Date will be US$5,047,770, of which US$4,875,000 will be applied to reduce the
aggregate principal amount of the Gold Notes issued and outstanding. The Company sold the 3,900 ounces accumulated in the gold trust account
during the past quarter at the London P.M. Fix on January 15, 2019 of US$1,294.30 per ounce to realize the proceeds required for this cash
payment.
Principal amount issued and outstanding: As of today’s date, there is a total of US$88,250,000 principal amount of Gold Notes issued
and outstanding.
After this quarterly repayment, the aggregate principal amount of the Gold Notes will be reduced to US$83,375,000.

After this quarterly repayment, the aggregate principal amount of the 
Gold Notes will be reduced to US$83,375,000. 
Read more at http://stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard#25j2WKZPAqZZuCkf.99

[drbubb]

GCM warrants-B - versus GCM.t. Trades at about 50% ... Ticker for the warrants in the US is TPRXF.

GCM.wt.b vs GCM ... 2-yrs : fr. 4/24/17 : C$2.21 strike price, April 30, 2024 expiry, 12.1m outstanding

DATE=C$: GCM.t Wt.B-, vol.-- : Ratio: ITM-$: TimeV: 50%i: AdjTV, as%G :
09/06/18: $2.16: 0.710, 00.0k : 32.9%: 0.000: 0.710 : 0.000 : 0.710 : 32.9% :
09/28/18: $2.25: 0.970, 00.0k : 43.1%: 0.040: 0.930 : 0.020 : 0.950 : 42.2% :
10/31/18: $2.32: 0.910, 66.8k : 39.2%: 0.110: 0.820 : 0.055 : 0.875 : 37.7% :
11/30/18: $2.53: 1.280, 22.1k : 50.6%: 0.320: 0.960 : 0.160 : 1.120 : 44.3% :
12/12/18: $2.90: 1.400, 29.7k : 48.3%: 0.690: 0.710 : 0.345 : 1.055 : 36.4% :
12/31/18: $2.82: 1.400, 00.8k : 49.6%: 0.610: 0.790 : 0.305 : 1.095 : 38.8% :
01/03/19: $3.18: 1.590, 54.5k : 50.0%: 0.970: 0.620 : 0.485 : 1.105 : 34.7% :
01/28/19: $3.36: 1.630, 26.7k : 48.5% : 1.150: 0.480 : 0.575 : 1.055 : 31.4% :
=============
Average: $2.43: 1.054 : 43.4%: 0.220: 0.834 : 0.110 : 0.944: 38.8% :
-- 50% -: GCM.t: Wt.B- : Ratio: ITM-$: TimeV: 50%i: AdjTV, as%G :
Use Ave.: $3.00: 1.500 : 50.0%: 0.790: 0.710 : 0.395 : 1.105 : 36.8% :
Use Ave.: $3.50: 1.750 : 50.0%: 1.290: 0.460 : 0.645 : 1.105 : 31.5% :
Use Ave.: $4.00: 2.000 : 50.0%: 1.790: 0.210 : 0.895 : 1.105 : 27.6% :
Use Ave.: $4.50: 2.250 : 50.0%: 2.290: -neg.- : 1.395 : 1.105 : 24.6% :

Stockwatch: Bid/Offer:  wt.b: 1.63-1.65 / GCM: 3.33-3.37 :: extreme: 1.65/3.33= 49.5%

[drbubb]

"An analyst is finally covering GCM"

GMP ( Griffiths McBurney ) initiates coverage with a $6 price target.

Read more at http://stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard#PpSfLeAD3jj4BKZV.99

Recent Research : https://gmpsecuritieslibrary.bluematrix.com/client/library.jsp

===

$6?  That is around the Book Value.

GCM would be just a "small bite" for potential buyers seeking to add 200k+ oz. production

Potential buyers’ balance sheet summary

Source: Company presentations/Q3 financial statements

            Company /   Cash ----------- Liquidity

                                            Credit ------------ Debt

Agnico Eagle $533m $1,200m $1,733m $1,722m

Kinross          $470m $1,482m $1,952m $1,734m

Yamana.       $121m    $688m    $809m $1,779m

B2Gold.          $94m     $100m    $194m    $486m

Alamos Gold  $206m    $400m    $606m       $0m

OceanaGold.  $70m      $70m    $140m    $210m

IAMGOLD.    $734m    $500m $1,234m*  $396m

Kirkland Lake $332m       n/a       $332m      $0m

Who are the potential buyers?

Looking at our coverage universe, we have selectively taken a look at senior and intermediate

producers and have put together a list of financial liquidity (refer to Figure 4).

Certainly, there are several factors to consider when thinking of potential suitors for the assets that could be for

sale from the recent M&A, but balance sheet flexibility is one of those factors.

Based on valuation and future FCF, we believe that Agnico Eagle, Kirkland Lake, B2Gold and

Oceana Gold are among the producers that can consider bigger deals.

Although we don’t cover the Australian gold producers (like Newcrest, Northern Star, Evolution, St. Barbara),

> source: https://gmpsecurities.bluematrix.com/sellside/EmailDocViewer?encrypt=57470bfc-3adc-4470-8c7c-8bcb60d3770e&mime=PDF&co=Gmpsecurities&id=noauthentication@bluematrix.com&source=libraryView&htmlToPdf=true

[drbubb]

New PRESENTATION online....

Strengthened balance sheet. Debt down to $83.4M and $33M of cash.

•

Future growth continues emphasis on high -grade Segovia mines and the other 24 known veins we are not currently mining.

•

Blue sky potential with Marmato, Zancudo and Sandspring in the pipeline.

http://s21.q4cdn.com/834539576/files/doc_presentations/GCM-VRIC-Workshop-Speaker-Presentation-January-2019.pdf

 

WHERE DO WE GO NEXT?
• High quality producing asset base in Colombia
– Take annual production to the 250,000+ ozs level in next couple years
• Upside in resource expansion and exploration assets
– Segovia remains a top priority
– Marmato underground mine expansion
– Zancudo – IAMGOLD option
• Investment in Sandspring Resources (TSXV: SSP)
– Exposure to their Toroparu Project in Guyana which is advancing
toward feasibility
– Chicharron silver-gold project in Segovia

Also from presentation: adj EBITDA US$105 million +40%

During this period gold production was up 25%, but EBITDA was up 40%. So they keep getting more efficient. 

 

+ if gold goes to $1400 or $1500 as some people believe, marmato and toroparu will look like monster large profitable deposits if not already at $1300 gold. since the mine life of those will be in the several decades, the gold price will likely be much higher than $1300 a decade from now.

 

+Ebitda 105 , marketcap 126 ( usd ) = Ridiculously cheap .-)

Read more at https://stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard#b6g6GSeqGI4uIsgS.99

Read more at https://stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard#O6mpvPP8YjdHlCGO.99

 

[drbubb]

Gran Colombia Produced 218,001 Ounces of Gold in 2018 - 
Mike Davies 501 views 
Cambridge House International Inc. 
Published on Jan 27, 2019

 

[drbubb]

GMP Analyst's report : Having an Impact?

RE:new presentation online....

Our new anlyst at MGP , Ian ,  has really given us a shot in the arm . Imagine if we get 2 or 3 of these guys .   Gold is holding up really well this week when you consider it usually takes a dive during the week of Chinese New Year .  We seem to be filling in a new bottom with the big volume on a company with a small float . What ever is going on , I love it .  When these small companies get some legs they can go a long way .

Maybe we will catch Kirkland Lake sooner rather than later .

/ 2 /

GMP raised its gold price estimate to US$1300 so their 2019 EPS estimate goes up to US$0.80 from US$0.69.

Read more at https://stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard#mS7yTBuI4pmc7KGK.99

[drbubb]

GCM Shareholders loved the Surprise News from Venezuela :

GCM.t ... update :

Top 5 : chart

Gcm.t : $4.42 +0.34, +8.33%
(Gdxj): 34.34 +1.39, +4.22% : for reference
(Gld): 126.70 +1.90, +1.52% : for reference 

Gran Colombia plans to restart Venezuela mining project

Gran Colombia Gold Corp. sees opportunity in the evolving changes in Venezuela to recover and develop its gold exploration assets that were nationalized in 2011, adding to its pipeline of Latin America-based projects which could fuel the company's mid- to long-term growth objectives. Gran Colombia recognizes Juan Guaido as the legitimate interim President of Venezuela and has communicated to its government the company's firm intention to restart its mining project in Venezuela as soon as circumstances allow. For the purposes of holding, developing and financing its Venezuelan assets and carrying out its Venezuelan investment strategy, Gran Colombia intends to spin off such assets into a separate listed special purpose vehicle. Through the spinoff, Gran Colombia will retain a major stake in the new company while leveraging the capital markets to provide the financing required for exploration and development of the mining assets.

Serafino Iacono, executive co-chairman of Gran Colombia, stated: "We are incredibly excited with the future prospects of Venezuela and are eager to be a partner in the reconstruction of the country...

. . . Prior to nationalization of the gold industry in 2011, Medoro Resources Ltd. (which merged into Gran Colombia in mid-2011) was the legal owner of the Increible 4A and 4B gold mining property in El Callao, state of Bolivar, an area in which close to $110-million (U.S.) had previously been invested. Exploration for gold in Bolivar state dates back to before Venezuelan independence in 1811 and most likely prior to the Spanish occupation. The El Callao mining district itself is historically the most prolific gold producing region in Venezuela with a recorded output of six million ounces since 1870. Through its exploration work, Medoro had outlined a National Instrument 43-101 compliant mineral resource estimate with 950,000 ounces of gold in the measured and indicated category and a further 90,000 ounces of gold in the inferred category.

[drbubb]

GROWING ORE BODY Described

Gran Colombia drills 0.38 m of 105.93 g/t Au at Segovia

GRAN COLOMBIA GOLD IDENTIFIES NEW ZONES IN ITS FINAL 2018 DRILLING RESULTS FOR ITS SEGOVIA OPERATIONS; GOLD PRODUCTION IN JANUARY 2019 REMAINS STEADY

Gran Colombia Gold Corp. has provided the final assay results from 83 additional diamond drill holes (8,043 metres) included in its 2018 underground drilling program at its high-grade Segovia operations. In 2018, the company completed a total of 209 holes at Segovia representing approximately 26,800 metres.

Serafino Iacono, executive co-chairman of Gran Colombia, commented: "We got off to a good start in 2019 with almost 18,000 ounces of gold production in January, in line with our expectations. Our drilling programs at Segovia continue to yield encouraging results, with the identification of two new zones at Providencia and the down-plunge extension of the main oreshoots at Sandra K, both of which have the potential for additional resource growth. Our 2019 drilling campaign at Segovia will focus more on stepout drilling at Providencia and Sandra K, deep zone drilling to extend El Silencio another 200 metres below its currently delineated mineral resource, and brownfield drilling on the Cogote vein system as we increasingly shift our attention toward the blue-sky potential within our Segovia mining title to add production and mine life."

Segovia drilling update

The key highlights and intercepts at Segovia since the company's Oct. 3, 2018, press release are as follows.

• Infill drilling at Providencia continued to test the Providencia vein system to the west of the current mine development. Multiple high gold grades were intersected from 30 drill holes (3,100 metres) drilled from underground on the main vein system with maximum grades of 84.10 grams per tonne gold and 97.7 g/t silver over 0.71 metre on the Providencia vein (PV-IU-164), and 105.93 g/t Au and 65.2 g/t Ag over 0.38 metre on a new, narrow and steeply dipping structure in the hangingwall of the Providencia vein (PV-IU-151). Drilling was successful in delineating a new high-grade zone to the west of and near the high-grade orebody that is currently in production, with maximum grades of 15.49 g/t Au and 22.7 g/t Ag over 2.65 metres (PV-IU-145-A) on the Providencia vein. In addition, another potential high-grade zone was outlined farther to west, with maximum grades of 65.83 g/t Au and 36.7 g/t Ag over 0.30 metre (PV-IU-055) still on the Providencia vein.

[drbubb]

WTF?  Why?

This news KILLED the stock: -18%!!.

Why raise equity? (This unexpected move kills confidence)

GCM.t ... update : Last: $3.57 -0.83 -18.85%

Gran Colombia Gold Files Preliminary Short Form Prospectus for Equity Offering

GlobeNewswire 8 hours ago

 

+ “Best efforts” offering of approximately $25,000,000 of units (the “Units”) of Gran Colombia (the “Offering”) at a price per Unit to be determined in the context of the market.

+ Each Unit will consist of one common share in the capital of the Company (each, a “Common Share”) and one-half of one common share purchase warrant ... at an exercise price of $5.75 per Common Share for a period of five years

+ The Agents will also have the option to offer for sale additional Units up to a number equal to 15% of the Units issued under the Offering exercisable until the date that is 30 days immediately following the Closing Date.

+ The Company intends to use the net proceeds of the Offering to accelerate its ongoing exploration programs at its high-grade Segovia gold project, including technical and other studies to be carried out over the next approximately six months to identify and prioritize drilling targets followed by a drilling campaign, over and above what is already planned by the Company in 2019. The objective of the drilling program is to increase mineral resources for future production growth and to extend the mine life of the Segovia Operations. If the over-allotment option is exercised by the Agents, the additional net proceeds will be used for general corporate purposes.

 

Read more at https://stockhouse.com/news/press-releases/2019/03/01/gran-colombia-gold-files-preliminary-short-form-prospectus-for-equity-offering#pR4aJQbFRyiMFtdw.99

 

 

[drbubb]

Support Level - and a "Likely Reason"

Likely to be some strong support around C$3.50.

If the price falls below there, Management should PULL the issue, and run the mine expansion at a slower rate/

My guess is that GCM's management was persuaded to do this deal by (greedy?) investment bankers in order to bring in new analyst coverage.

It is not uncommon for firms to want to start coverage along with handling a new stock issue. 

If my guess is right, then I do hope they bring in at least 2-3 high quality firms to cover the stock

If this was NOT the real reason, then it was ham-fisted.

To raise $25K, they made this surprise announcement, and the stock tanked by -$0.83 (x 48.1 M = $40m)

That is not a clever move. Could have been handled better

[drbubb]

Assessing the Damage - as we head into PDAC week in Toronto

(as I posted in my diary):

"I will wait and see how the placement goes.

PDAC is coming next week, so it will be a good time for GCM to "show its wares", explain the drill results, and reveal its plans more fully.

Probably they rushed this announcement out, because their investment bankers told them, there were some critical meetings set up"

(And there was this post on the GCM bullboard - where this site is getting some notice.):

RE...: To do what ?

Today's knee jerk reaction to the news certainly appears to be "shoot first, ask questions (and maybe even read the prospectus) later."  Gold down (a mere 20 bucks) threw a bit of crazy into the mix... but give that another week or so, and it's likely going to be nothing more than a blip on the radar ('cause gold is going higher.)

Perhaps there was some institutionally interest that wanted in (finally.)  Quite frankly, the stock was so thinly traded prior to the last couple of weeks, they'd have a heck of time getting any size position without really driving the price much higher.  So, this might simply be a means to "let them in" at a more reasonable starting price. (I'm thinking 4 or a little more would be fair.)  And who here read the darn perspectus? Because if (i.e, when) the stock trades over $7 for 10 (average weighting) days, the company has the option to accelerate the experation of those (half) warrants... which could rather quickly and easily add another 20 million to their coffers.

And you're right about needing more extensive drilling at Segovia.  It is a HIGH GRADE area that has been producing gold for something like... what is it... 150 years?  Simply put, GCM has a lot of blue sky in the land there that has never been drilled, and that is the most likely to add far greater value to the company than any other single thing they have or could possibly do.

PDAC starts next week.  Maybe after having the weekend to think about a few of these things and realizing how utterly foolish some were today to trash this stock the way they did, a little sanity will take hold and there'll be far less stock for sale under 4 than anyone might normally guess after a day like today.  But, what do I know...

Read more at https://stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard?symbol=t.gcm&postid=29432469#5ijm0rBSFXcRw5jK.99

[jerpy]

Bit gutted I only took a little profit at $4.34. That drop felt a a real kick but I’m staying sanguine about them and hoping for more clarity next week.

 

[drbubb]

I sold about half my shares on the way up, and kept most of the warrants.

May soon replace the shares I sold with warrants, provide the price gets cheap enough

[drbubb]

Gran Colombia Gold Announces C$20,000,000 Convertible Debenture Bought Deal

- and Termination of Previously Announced Equity Offering

Globe Newswire12:39 PM

Gran Colombia Gold Corp. (TSX:

GCM, OTCQX: TPRFF) (the “Company” or “Gran Colombia”) announced today it has entered into an agreement with a syndicate of underwriters co-led by GMP Securities L.P. and Scotiabank (collectively the “Underwriters”) pursuant to which the Underwriters have agreed to purchase on a bought deal, private placement basis (the “Private Placement”) C$20,000,000 aggregate principal amount of convertible unsecured subordinated debentures at a price of C$1,000 per C$1,000 principal amount of debentures (the “Convertible Debentures”). Gran Colombia also announced the termination of its C$25,000,000 best efforts offering of units, previously announced on March 1, 2019.

Serafino Iacono, Executive Co-Chairman of Gran Colombia, commented: “We are very pleased to be replacing the previously announced equity offering with the Private Placement.  Given the decline in our share price on Friday, we determined that it would not be in the best interests of Gran Colombia to proceed with the equity offering. Over the last couple years, we have significantly improved the Company, reaching mid-tier status by bringing our annual gold production to 218,000 ounces last year and, as previously disclosed, we expect to produce between 210,000 and 225,000 ounces this year.

We have also strengthened our balance sheet and our operating cash flow, providing us with the capacity to continue to internally fund our ongoing exploration, development and capital expenditure programs. In 2018, we were pleased to be able to report our maiden mineral reserve for our Segovia gold project. We believe the Private Placement affords us the opportunity to move ahead with our objective of accelerating the drilling program to significantly add reserves, production and mine life at our high-grade Segovia Operations to strengthen our enterprise value. February has proved to be another solid production month for Gran Colombia, and later this week we expect to finalize and release mineral reserve and resource updates for Segovia. Management continues to believe in the opportunities that lie ahead to grow this Company and intends to subscribe for up to 10% of the Private Placement.”

The Convertible Debentures will mature five years and one day after the issuance date (the “Maturity Date”) and will accrue interest at the rate of 8.00% per annum, payable monthly. At the holders’ option, the Convertible Debentures may be converted into common shares of Gran Colombia at any time and from time to time, up to the Maturity Date, at a conversion rate of approximately 210.53 common shares per C$1,000 principal amount, subject to adjustment in certain circumstances, which equates to an initial conversion price of C$4.75, representing a 33% premium to the closing price on the Toronto Stock Exchange on March 1, 2019, for each common share of the Company.

The Convertible Debentures will not be listed and will be convertible unsecured obligations of Gran Colombia, subordinated to senior indebtedness of the Company and ranking equally with all present and future unsecured subordinated indebtedness of the Company...

[jerpy]

1 hour ago, drbubb said:

Gran Colombia Gold Announces C$20,000,000 Convertible Debenture Bought Deal

- and Termination of Previously Announced Equity Offering

... Gran Colombia also announced the termination of its C$25,000,000 best efforts offering of units, previously announced on March 1, 2019...

In other words, their dumb decision and market reaction caused a rethink.

[drbubb]

1 hour ago, jerpy said:

In other words, their dumb decision and market reaction caused a rethink.

To be fair, they must have been shocked by the market's reaction.

And they were quick in re-thinking.

I expect the price to stabilize, and head higher if more good news comes out.  Some nervous investors have exited & been replaced

GCM ... 10d : C$3.89 +0.32, +8.96% vol. 632,307  (after about 1 million shs. yesterday)

GCM.wt.B ... 10d : w/GCM : C$2.02 +0.28, +16.09% vol. 57,800

[jerpy]

Yes I’ll give them credit for seeing the error.

I’ve not sold any today, if anything was tempted to buy and had I sold half as you had done, probably would have bought half of those sold back. Just going to sit out the ones I cashed in as close to $4 again anyway, see where it settles and if much comes out of the PDAC where I’m sure it will given their presence.

[drbubb]

I bought warrants today at $1.81 and $1.76 and accounted for over Half of the day's warrant volume

GCM.wt.B ...  Custom: fr 9/15 : 10d : w/GCM : $1.73 -$0.14, -7.49%

Versus GCM:  $3.55 -0.15, -7.49% // Ratio: R-00%

[drbubb]

GCM - the Good & the Bad

GOOD:

Internal funding should have been enough

EBITDA should be in the $140m range for 2018. So they clearly should not need any funding. They could pay down half their debt and spend like $50m on capex. 

So then the question is, did they do it because they are incredibly short sighted and unpatient and cannot even wait 6 months?

Or did they do it to please some powerful people that might become a pain in the &*^ politically by giving them a piece of GCM very cheaply?

Or did they do it because they expect production to fall due to insufficient reserves? Or maybe they ran out of the quality veins, and costs will shoot up, and EBITDA will only be $70m. In the presentation you see that proven reserves are only 68k oz with 45g/t

Read more at https://stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard?symbol=t.gcm&postid=29452247#8LiBgFHwhHpQmDzM.99

 

BAD / RE:Internal funding should have been enough

>> In the presentation you see that proven reserves
>> are only 68k oz with 45g/t

Yeah, and this was also in that same presentation:

High grade mesothermal quartzsulfide veins in historic mining district….over 5 million ounces of gold produced through continuous mining over past 150+ years. Expected mine life runs through to 2026 (2017 PEA).

Read more at https://stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard?symbol=t.gcm&postid=29452393#My5H7Yp55GWa8TKA.99

From PRESENTATION: GCM - March 2019

2018 Gold Production 218,000ozs MID-TIER GOLD MINER, Surpassed 2018 Guidance

We have produced more than 1millionouncesof gold since inception in20103

segovia

High‐grade underground mines

89% ofproduction

2018:193,000ozs

Headg rades averaged 17.1g/t in2018

One of theTop5 HighestGradeUndergroundMines

Strengthened balance sheet in2018.

Debtdown to $83.4M as of Jan. 31,2019. Debt/EBITDA of~0.8X.

$33M ofcash asofDecember31,2018,upfrom $3M atthe endof2017.

Future growth continues emphasis on high grade Segovia mines andtheother24knownveinswearenotcurrentlymining.

Bluesky potential with Marmato, Zancudo, Sandspring and Venezuela

> http://s21.q4cdn.com/834539576/files/March-2019.pdf

[drbubb]

THE WALL (of falling Proven Resources) @ Segovia

GCM hit the Wall of Proven Reserves, and is moving past it in 2018 and beyond

Figures suggest that GCM “hit the wall” already in 2018.
+ Gold production in 2018 exceeded Proven Reserves at end 2017, by a lot!
+ Gold production at Segovia was 193k oz for 2018 (at 17.1 g)
+ Probable Gold reserves at Segovia Were 3.1 X that = 592k oz
+ But the remaining grade is only 11.4 g/t (still good)
+ At these lower grades, costs will rise, and GCM will need to put
Through its mining production 50% more ounces, to maintain its gold oz level
+ GCM is pushing up the throughput capacity of its mining operations by 25%
That is from 1,200 tpd to 1,500 tpd
+ At 1,500 tpd and 300 day full capacity, GCM could process 450k tonnes p.a
+ At 11 g/t, that would be 4.95Million Gold grams ( /28.35 = 175k oz.)
+ At 365d x full capacity = 5.22M Gold grams ( /28.35 = 184k Gold oz.)
+ Gold cash cost could potentially rise by up to 50% per oz., reducing GCM’s profits

However, the wall being hit in 2018, showed no signs of a shrinking in margins (yet)

Segovia Operations
(“CoreProducer”, with 100% Ownership)
Mineral Resources(1) Gold
‐ M&I:                 1,107kozs  10.1g/t
‐ Inferred:          1,246kozs  11.4g/t

Mineral Reserves(1,2) Gold:
  ‐ Proven.              68kozs  45.4g/t   
  ‐ Probable         592kozs  11.4g/t
2018 Gold Production 193,050 ops @ 17.1 g/t
Cash Cost/oz.              US$618
Notes: 1 = at Dec.31, 2017

This is why the company is stepping up the pace of drilling; seeking more high grade resources

You should expect head grades to decline, since 2018 grade exceeds remaining resource

Per March 2019 Presentation, pg.8: http://s21.q4cdn.com/834539576/files/March-2019.pdf

A good team of analysts following the company, would mean that the company would reveal its

plans in facing these challenges, well before it hits another wall, & brings surprises

[drbubb]

bullboard comments

RE:Keep polishing the turd

sorry, you are completely wrong... yes GCM has an AISC near 900USD/oz but Segovia has an AISC bnea 800$ (including develeopement and exploration)without mine- and underground developement+modernaisation the AISC would be near 750$ oz... 900$ company-wide AISC is because the small marmato -prodiction has high costs (appr. 1100$/oz)... at marmoto they will built a new plant with 4-5 x-times capacity of the current plant..this will bring the costs down there..wait for the PEA in late 2019 ...

Segovia is a low-cost cash cow  and increased reserve will translate into more value!!

/ 2 /

PlanetURF wrote:

AISC for TTM is already $900 according to march 4th presentation. It will probably go to $1k-1.1k in the next few years if their high grade veins run dry.  

They could have funded all this internally if EBITDA would have really been $105m US in the next 12 months. That was my point. That is $140m CAD EBITDA. In theory that should have been $140-150m in FCF CAD in the next 24 months. That could be used to pay down almost all their debt and heavily spend on expansion. Instead they dillute shareholders for likely another 4.2m shares. 

Tomorow will be new reserve update, so I guess we will see who is right here. 

/ 3 /

You are right, that there might be enough FCF to fund the extra exploration but there is also the chance of another work stoppage or a collapse in the gold price. Meanwhile, the amortization of the notes is not optional so raising some cash gives some breathing room in case some things don’t go according to plan.

Meanwhile, there is now 35% upside to the conversion price of the new debt so it’s not dilutive unless we go over. 

I would have preferred an acceleration of the current warrants but there would still have to be a new warrant offered with a higher strike which would also have brought more dilution with it. 

/ 4 /

Gap Filled

Gap in daily chart filled.  The market hates gaps.  Yes sometimes they don't fill, but more often than not they do.  Time to move up.  (I hope)

image:

/ 5 /

Too cheap to let loose

...load up while you can
prepare for the following ignites:
- outstanding Segovia RE statement
- succesful closing of bond financing (I admit: their first try was overly stupid)
- Q1 production results

in 1 year time, you'll wonder why this stock has ever been trading at such a discount. This 3-4CAD price range is a gift for value hunters to load 'em up.

good luck to the longs and have some patience!

Read more at https://stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard?symbol=t.gcm&postid=29460750#TXxPMPeG2qCDr5CJ.99

[drbubb]

Misunderstood?

My comment on The Wall was copied over at the Stockhouse Bullboard (that is fine!)

But the comment seems to have been misunderstood - based on THIS reaction:

"his calculations show a drop of only 10k to 20k oz of production when processing lower grade at 1500tpd. that is not much of a drop at all, only 5% to 10% drop from 193k oz. that is certainly not 50%. his 50% assumes no increase to 1500tpd at all which is a wrong assumption. plus the big wrong assumption that their annual drill program finds zero, no high grade at all.

if the wall was hit in 2018 as he claims, then how come guidance is much higher for 2019?
what would his calculation be if they increase to 2000tpd?

all this assumes they found zero high grade in their 2018 drill program, and will find zero high grade after a big increase of 80km drilling on top of annual drilling. how likely is that to happen?
Read more at https://stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard?symbol=t.gcm&postid=29465487#MuumUwlQjUASx4fS.99

"

I will respond to this later