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drbubb

Gran Columbia (GCM.t) : 218,000 oz/yr Gold miner

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I wasn't planning on letting mine go at $4, but might make sense if you have got alot.

pg10 / Yr.End 12/31: C$2.82 - at $1281 Gold price (0.22%), C$Gold was C$1715 (0.164%)

Update: 1/16/19:  C$3.46 +22.7% in 2019 / 1-yr. Vs 200d : 377d.ma : 610d : 987d. : Mkt.Depth : SH-gcm :

jrwjaq1.gif

Date------- : GCM.t: CAD$: $Price: ShOS MktVal : 8%-Debs: Date: Cash: EntVal. / $Gold : OZ's/ Prd. years.: 221wtx12.2M
08/10/18: $2.44 x.761= $1.857 48.2M $89.5M: $98.0M: Est.: $28.0: $159.5M /$1219: 131k/200: 0.660: $0.23=$2.81M
10/02/18: $2.40 x.780= $1.872 48.2M $90.2M: $93.1M: Est.: $28.0: $155.3M /$1204: 129k/212: 0.609: $0.19=$2.31M
12/31/18: $2.82 x.733= $2.067 48.2M $99.6M: $83.4M: 12/31 $29? $154.0M /$1281: 120k/217: 0.554: $0.61=$7.44M
01/03/19: $3.18 x.741= $2.356 48.2M $113.M: $83.4M: 12/31 $29? $167.0M /$1295: 129k/217: 0.594: $0.97=$11.8M
01/04/19: $3.15 x.747= $2.353 48.2M $113.M: $83.4M: 12/31 $29? $167.0M /$1284: 130k/217: 0.599: $0.94=$11.5M
=========

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Gold linked Notes, Total Value Estimate: with Wt.B / vs.GCM / TPRFF : GCM.NT.U

UNITS:
Date : Gold: GCM : Ratio: G/1250 x57%+104%= Debs : Wt2.21: CAD : $USD : 124wt: Comb.: USD$: x512.8:
05/31: 1305: $3.03 : 431. : 104.4 : 59.5 +44.7= 104.2 : $1.40*x0.772 = $1.08 : 13.4% : 117.6 : $2.34: 1200 :
06/29: 1255: $2.88 : 436. : 100.4 : 57.2 +44.7= 101.9 : $1.30*x0.761 = $0.99 : 12.3% : 114.2 : $2.19: 1123 :
10/02: 1204: $2.40 : 502. : 100.0 : 57.0 +44.7= 101.7 : $1.14 x0.780 = $0.89 : 11.0% : 112.7 : $1.88: $964 :
12/31: 1281: $2.82 : 454. : 102.5 : 58.4 +44.7= 103.1 : $1.40 x0.733 = $1.02 : 12.6% : 115.7 : $2.06: 1056 : :
01/03: 1295: $3.18 : 407. : 103.6 : 59.1 +44.7= 103.7 : $1.55 x0.741 = $1.15 : 14.2% : 117.9 : $2.35: 1205 :
=====: ==================================== : *est. Wt. value, x124 wts/deb
Last Col.: $1000/ 1.95= 512.8shs xC%2.52= C$1,292 x0.770= $995, Value of 1% Debs if Converted

GCM etc: GDXJ & MNT.t ... w/o Mux st 377d: w/MUX st: GCM.t only : 12/10/2018: c$2.81 : c$17.58 : $27.76 :

BENXIXB.gif

st:

9gKPtns.gif

Date-----: GCM.t : MNT.t : 12.9%L// GDXJ  x10.0%H cad= GJcad: x7.7%
12/30/16: $1.40 : $16.48 : $2.13 //: $31.55 : $3.16 x1.350= 42.59: 3.28
12/29/17: $1.96 : $17.39 : $2.24 //: $34.13 : $3.41 x1.257= 42.90: 3.30
05/28/18: $3.29 : $17.71 : $2.28 //: $32.89* $3.29 x1.299= 42.72: 3.29 - High
06/30/18: $2.88 : $17.44 : $2.25 //: $32.70 : $3.27 x1.314= 42.97: 3.31
08/17/18: $2.13 : $16.35 : $2.11 //: $27.49 : $2.75 x1.306= 35.90: 2.76 - Low
10/04/18: $2.60 : $16.37 : $2.11 //: $27.83 : $2.78 x1.292= 35.59: 2.74
11/01/18: $2.51 : $16.91 : $1.92 //: $28.14 : $2.81 x1.310= 36.86: 2.84
11/14/18: $2.53 : $16.90 : $2.18 //: $26.64 : $2.66 x1.324= 35.27: 2.72
12/10/18: $2.81 : $17.58 : $2.27 //: $27.76 : $2.78 x1.340= 37.20: 2.86
12/31/18: $2.82 : $18.41 : $2.37 //: $30.22 : $3.02 x1.364= 41.22: 3.17

========

PRODUCTION: 18,193 oz in Nov. 2018; 19,002 in Dec.

=== : PRODUCTION
Mo.: Prod'17:  Prod'18:
Q1- :  39,008 :  52,672 /3= 17,557 ave.
Q2- :  46,075 :  52,906 : + 14.8%
H1  :  85,084 : 105,578 : + 24.1%
July:  00,000 :  19,296 :
Aug.:  00,000 :  18,747 :
Sep :  00,000 :  19,120 :
Q3- :   37.1 K :  57,163 > +54%
9mos: 122. K : 162.7k > +33%
====
Oct.:  17.33K :  18,065 :
Nov:  17.33K :  18,193 :
Dec.  17.33K :  19,002 (aver.18.4k oz in Q4)
==================
Q4- :   52.  K :  55,260 > +54%
12mo: 174. K : 218.001 > +25% vs 2017 Total
Ave.M: 14.5K : 18.2K - average per month

"218,001 OUNCES, UP 25% OVER 2017"
Guidance for 2019: 210-225k : Mid-217.5K
Cash; US$33M at YE'18, Debt @ $83.38M, end Jan.19
$1.0552 /$1.00 @ $1294.3 /$1250
8.25% x 1.0552= 8.705%

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18 hours ago, drbubb said:

I am pleased, of course.

Like other people in a situation like this, I wish I had bought more - haha/

So far, I have only done minor selling, but somewhere near $4.00 or so, I might let bigger chunks go

GCM.t ... long chart :

5Wuq03n.gif

Not the only one pleased and wishing he’d bought more.

Great call though, can please not cause a slump at $4 😊

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DEBT coming down fast > $4.88M per quarter = $19.5 Million per annum

At 8.25%, that reduces interest expense by $1.6M each year / 48.15M shs = 3.3 cents/sh., rise in EPS?  (pre-tax)

Quarterly Gold Note Repayment on January 31, 2019 

Gran Colombia Gold Corp. (TSX: GCM, OTCQX: TPRFF) also announced today the details for the forthcoming quarterly repayment of its 8.25% Senior
Secured Gold-Linked Notes due 2024 (the “Gold Notes”) (TSX: GCM.NT.U) as follows:

Payment date: January 31, 2019
Record date: January 24, 2019
Cash payment amount: Approximately US$0.0571985 per US$1.00 principal amount of Gold Notes representing an amortization payment of the
principal amount issued and outstanding of approximately US$0.0552407 per US$1.00 principal amount of Gold Notes and a gold premium of
approximately US$0.0019578 per US$1.00 principal amount of Gold Notes.

The aggregate amount of the cash payments on the Payment Date will be US$5,047,770, of which US$4,875,000 will be applied to reduce the
aggregate principal amount of the Gold Notes issued and outstanding. The Company sold the 3,900 ounces accumulated in the gold trust account
during the past quarter at the London P.M. Fix on January 15, 2019 of US$1,294.30 per ounce to realize the proceeds required for this cash
payment.
Principal amount issued and outstanding: As of today’s date, there is a total of US$88,250,000 principal amount of Gold Notes issued
and outstanding.
After this quarterly repayment, the aggregate principal amount of the Gold Notes will be reduced to US$83,375,000.

After this quarterly repayment, the aggregate principal amount of the 
Gold Notes will be reduced to US$83,375,000. 
Read more at http://stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard#25j2WKZPAqZZuCkf.99

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GCM warrants-B - versus GCM.t. Trades at about 50% ... Ticker for the warrants in the US is TPRXF.

GCM.wt.b vs GCM ... 2-yrs : fr. 4/24/17 : C$2.21 strike price, April 30, 2024 expiry, 12.1m outstanding

GQwGmz7.gif

DATE=C$: GCM.t Wt.B-, vol.-- : Ratio: ITM-$: TimeV: 50%i: AdjTV, as%G :
09/06/18: $2.16: 0.710, 00.0k : 32.9%: 0.000: 0.710 : 0.000 : 0.710 : 32.9% :
09/28/18: $2.25: 0.970, 00.0k : 43.1%: 0.040: 0.930 : 0.020 : 0.950 : 42.2% :
10/31/18: $2.32: 0.910, 66.8k : 39.2%: 0.110: 0.820 : 0.055 : 0.875 : 37.7% :
11/30/18: $2.53: 1.280, 22.1k : 50.6%: 0.320: 0.960 : 0.160 : 1.120 : 44.3% :
12/12/18: $2.90: 1.400, 29.7k : 48.3%: 0.690: 0.710 : 0.345 : 1.055 : 36.4% :
12/31/18: $2.82: 1.400, 00.8k : 49.6%: 0.610: 0.790 : 0.305 : 1.095 : 38.8% :
01/03/19: $3.18: 1.590, 54.5k : 50.0%: 0.970: 0.620 : 0.485 : 1.105 : 34.7% :
01/28/19: $3.36: 1.630, 26.7k : 48.5% : 1.150: 0.480 : 0.575 : 1.055 : 31.4% :
=============
Average: $2.43: 1.054 : 43.4%: 0.220: 0.834 : 0.110 : 0.944: 38.8% :
-- 50% -: GCM.t: Wt.B- : Ratio: ITM-$: TimeV: 50%i: AdjTV, as%G :
Use Ave.: $3.00: 1.500 : 50.0%: 0.790: 0.710 : 0.395 : 1.105 : 36.8% :
Use Ave.: $3.50: 1.750 : 50.0%: 1.290: 0.460 : 0.645 : 1.105 : 31.5% :
Use Ave.: $4.00: 2.000 : 50.0%: 1.790: 0.210 : 0.895 : 1.105 : 27.6% :
Use Ave.: $4.50: 2.250 : 50.0%: 2.290: -neg.- : 1.395 : 1.105 : 24.6% :

Stockwatch: Bid/Offer:  wt.b: 1.63-1.65 / GCM: 3.33-3.37 :: extreme: 1.65/3.33= 49.5%

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"An analyst is finally covering GCM"

GMP ( Griffiths McBurney ) initiates coverage with a $6 price target.

Read more at http://stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard#PpSfLeAD3jj4BKZV.99

Recent Research : https://gmpsecuritieslibrary.bluematrix.com/client/library.jsp

===

$6?  That is around the Book Value.

GCM would be just a "small bite" for potential buyers seeking to add 200k+ oz. production

Potential buyers’ balance sheet summary
Source: Company presentations/Q3 financial statements
            Company /   Cash ----------- Liquidity
                                            Credit ------------ Debt
Agnico Eagle $533m $1,200m $1,733m $1,722m
Kinross          $470m $1,482m $1,952m $1,734m
Yamana.       $121m    $688m    $809m $1,779m
B2Gold.          $94m     $100m    $194m    $486m
Alamos Gold  $206m    $400m    $606m       $0m
OceanaGold.  $70m      $70m    $140m    $210m
IAMGOLD.    $734m    $500m $1,234m*  $396m
Kirkland Lake $332m       n/a       $332m      $0m
Who are the potential buyers?
Looking at our coverage universe, we have selectively taken a look at senior and intermediate
producers and have put together a list of financial liquidity (refer to Figure 4).
Certainly, there are several factors to consider when thinking of potential suitors for the assets that could be for
sale from the recent M&A, but balance sheet flexibility is one of those factors.
Based on valuation and future FCF, we believe that Agnico Eagle, Kirkland Lake, B2Gold and
Oceana Gold are among the producers that can consider bigger deals.
Although we don’t cover the Australian gold producers (like Newcrest, Northern Star, Evolution, St. Barbara),

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New PRESENTATION online....

Strengthened balance sheet. Debt down to $83.4M and $33M of cash.
Future growth continues emphasis on high -grade Segovia mines and the other 24 known veins we are not currently mining.
Blue sky potential with Marmato, Zancudo and Sandspring in the pipeline.
http://s21.q4cdn.com/834539576/files/doc_presentations/GCM-VRIC-Workshop-Speaker-Presentation-January-2019.pdf
 
WHERE DO WE GO NEXT?
• High quality producing asset base in Colombia
Take annual production to the 250,000+ ozs level in next couple years
• Upside in resource expansion and exploration assets
– Segovia remains a top priority
– Marmato underground mine expansion
– Zancudo – IAMGOLD option
• Investment in Sandspring Resources (TSXV: SSP)
– Exposure to their Toroparu Project in Guyana which is advancing
toward feasibility
– Chicharron silver-gold project in Segovia

Also from presentation: adj EBITDA US$105 million +40%

During this period gold production was up 25%, but EBITDA was up 40%. So they keep getting more efficient. 
 
+ if gold goes to $1400 or $1500 as some people believe, marmato and toroparu will look like monster large profitable deposits if not already at $1300 gold. since the mine life of those will be in the several decades, the gold price will likely be much higher than $1300 a decade from now.
 
+Ebitda 105 , marketcap 126 ( usd ) = Ridiculously cheap .-)

Read more at https://stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard#O6mpvPP8YjdHlCGO.99
 

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Gran Colombia Produced 218,001 Ounces of Gold in 2018 - 
Mike Davies
 501 views 
Cambridge House International Inc. 
Published on Jan 27, 2019
 

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GMP Analyst's report : Having an Impact?

RE:new presentation online....

Our new anlyst at MGP , Ian ,  has really given us a shot in the arm . Imagine if we get 2 or 3 of these guys .   Gold is holding up really well this week when you consider it usually takes a dive during the week of Chinese New Year .  We seem to be filling in a new bottom with the big volume on a company with a small float . What ever is going on , I love it .  When these small companies get some legs they can go a long way .
Maybe we will catch Kirkland Lake sooner rather than later .

/ 2 /

GMP raised its gold price estimate to US$1300 so their 2019 EPS estimate goes up to US$0.80 from US$0.69.

Read more at https://stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard#mS7yTBuI4pmc7KGK.99

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GCM Shareholders loved the Surprise News from Venezuela :

GCM.t ... update :

YPdDDxk.gif

Top 5 : chart

Gcm.t : $4.42 +0.34, +8.33%
(Gdxj): 34.34 +1.39, +4.22% : for reference
(Gld): 126.70 +1.90, +1.52% : for reference 

Gran Colombia plans to restart Venezuela mining project

Gran Colombia Gold Corp. sees opportunity in the evolving changes in Venezuela to recover and develop its gold exploration assets that were nationalized in 2011, adding to its pipeline of Latin America-based projects which could fuel the company's mid- to long-term growth objectives. Gran Colombia recognizes Juan Guaido as the legitimate interim President of Venezuela and has communicated to its government the company's firm intention to restart its mining project in Venezuela as soon as circumstances allow. For the purposes of holding, developing and financing its Venezuelan assets and carrying out its Venezuelan investment strategy, Gran Colombia intends to spin off such assets into a separate listed special purpose vehicle. Through the spinoff, Gran Colombia will retain a major stake in the new company while leveraging the capital markets to provide the financing required for exploration and development of the mining assets.

Serafino Iacono, executive co-chairman of Gran Colombia, stated: "We are incredibly excited with the future prospects of Venezuela and are eager to be a partner in the reconstruction of the country...

. . . Prior to nationalization of the gold industry in 2011, Medoro Resources Ltd. (which merged into Gran Colombia in mid-2011) was the legal owner of the Increible 4A and 4B gold mining property in El Callao, state of Bolivar, an area in which close to $110-million (U.S.) had previously been invested. Exploration for gold in Bolivar state dates back to before Venezuelan independence in 1811 and most likely prior to the Spanish occupation. The El Callao mining district itself is historically the most prolific gold producing region in Venezuela with a recorded output of six million ounces since 1870. Through its exploration work, Medoro had outlined a National Instrument 43-101 compliant mineral resource estimate with 950,000 ounces of gold in the measured and indicated category and a further 90,000 ounces of gold in the inferred category.

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