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drbubb

Gold and the 4-6 months Cycle

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(from my May Diary):

 

Gold's 4-6 months Cycle:

 

Here's what I expected from the time of the "expected Dec. Cyclical low"

 

GLD: update: end-may: $116.06 +0.44/ UK:GBS: $115.50/ HK-2840: $ 898.5 /7.76= $115.80 : HK-3081: $29.35 r-30.61

GLD-12mos_zpsxmqnwhs4.gif

 

The longer history of the cycles looked like this: 2013-15 :

 

... continues: Low, Dec.15th: 1129.8 / $103.04 = 10.96 / intraday: 1123/$103= 10.90

 

Gold-toDXY_zpsehk68ypw.png

 

 

 

Here's what happened - a Nice Rally !

But it may be petering out in April, and Gold (gold shares and silver), turned lower with bonds.

I anticipated this - and went short, selling Gold positions, and buying puts on TMF, a 3X etf linked to Bond prices

 

TMF - this chart was from mid-April

Rising interest rates, may turnaround the falling dollar, and "put the Kabash" on the rise in Gold and Bitcoins

These prices move together : TMF, GDX, UGLD, SLV : Bonds, Gold stocks, Gold, and Silver.

And they have been moving in a shared 4-6 months cycle:

 

TMF -etc. ... 2-yrs : 5-yrs : 6-mos / 10-d :

TMF-etc3_zpstrspmtlw.gif

 

So far, so good:

TMF HAS dropped - that's Bonds, Gold, Gold shares, silver...

Approximately 1% per day (!), over 9-10 days

 

TMF-etf ... update

TMT-etc-10d_zps9w5fkrfv.gif

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NEXT WEEK may be too soon, but we are getting close®

 

Gold Intermediate Cycle : Surfing for a Wave Trough.
Surf-City.png
Surf City Thursday May 11, 2017

Kitco Commentaries | Opinions, Ideas and Markets Talk

 

20170511_SCC_1.png

 

Based on Time and Price action I am seeing, I am expecting the next Intermediate Cycle Low (ICL) for Gold and PM’s either in mid-May (this week or next?) or it could move into mid-June. Why the one month variation? That is about the time needed for one of Gold’s shorter term Trading Cycles (22-29 days Low to Low on average).

The Price and Time action on Gold’s longer Intermediate Cycle, however, is clearer than the shorter Trading Cycles right now. Based on Gold’s last confirmed short term Trading or Daily Cycle Low (TCL or DCL) in March near $1196, we are possibly on day 41 of TC3. I simply hate long counts like this and whenever I see them I often explore multiple possible counts as they are outside the norm. I will also say that long TC counts are often seen near the end of Gold’s longer Intermediate Cycle.

As my normal timing band for Trading Cycle Lows (TL Low or TCL) is 22-29 days, this is either a very long Trading Cycle or perhaps we had a stealth TC Low in April on day 18. That would make this day 23 of TC4.

Bottom line, however, I don’t see Gold’s longer Intermediate Cycle Low stretching out past mid-June.

My last point here is that picking the exact bottom is not always necessary as long as you moved much of your PM portfolio to Cash near the Cycle top (see my 2nd chart). If you look at my Portfolio Tracker, my last long trade in GDX was stopped out at $24.20 on February 10th, and the Intermediate High in GDX was two days earlier on Feb 8th, near $25 and change. I did not sell my entire portfolio back then but I sold a good bit of it over the next few days.

==

> more: http://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2017-05-11/Gold-Intermediate-Cycle-Surfing-for-a-Wave-Trough.html

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GOLD : I'm not impressed !

 

I think we saw a cyclical Low at the beginning of July, but I 'm not impressed by the volume or the Size of the Rally in GLD or GDX

 

Gold-in-Euros - has gone virtually "nowhere"

t0En9bA.png

 

GLD
GpsOIEB.png

 

GDX

D1qARzi.gif

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Seasonal Cycle

 

Nice action in GDX and GDXJ over the last week or so.

 

Yes, MORE impressive.

 

Perhaps the prior weakness (see "I'm not impressed") was mainly seasonal.

 

We are now in the strong season for Gold

I can see GLD running to $130 or higher over the next 4-5 weeks

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Hmm if gold clears $1400, then that's a 2 year new high. North Korea's H-bomb detonation today could be the catalyst. This could be the end of the stock bull run, and a resumption of the dow/gold run to 1-1 ratio.

 

Untitled.png

 

11111.png

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INDU to Gold still in Long term Slide?

 

Hmm if gold clears $1400, then that's a 2 year new high. North Korea's H-bomb detonation today could be the catalyst. This could be the end of the stock bull run, and a resumption of the dow/gold run to 1-1 ratio.

 

Untitled.png

 

11111.png

update

7JuA75b.png

==

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Currencies up as much as 14% (EUR) against the USD from the year-end 2016 Low

 

FX-All : 2017 : 2016-17 : 2015-17 : 2014-17 : 2013-17 : since 2010 : w/MA's :

RSgX2Ab.gif

 

FX-All : 2013-17 :

hFmhO5L.gif

since 2010 : w/MA's :

DrRcqWT.gif

==

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