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Gold and the 4-6 months Cycle

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GOLD and the 4-6 months Cycle

 

Updated - to 7/7/2016 : GLD: $ 129.74 (last low: $115 at end-May) / HK2840: $ 1,113

GLD2840-2013_zpse4dgo9nj.gif

 

Old Charts

GLD-since 2011 ... update - has been falling 51 months : with a drop of 44% (see table below in post #2)

GLD-2011_zpscrszugbp.gif

 

GLD -vs -HK2840 with cycle ... from-2011 : from-2013 : from-2014 : 12-months :

GLD-HK-2013B_zps8ghwdwjf.gif

 

GLD ... from 2005 w/ pattern of January rallies; especially after DOWN years ... ... All Data : 2-yrs : 12mo-d : 10-d

GLD-all_zpsocjkch8n.gif

 

====

Tom McCl's website-------- :: http://www.mcoscillator.com/

Really Useful Gold thread :: http://uk.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=948390

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CYCLE Tester - Compare Current cycle, with the prior one. GLD-12mos

Compare 5mos & 4mos earlier

au0365nyb.gif : t24_au_en_usoz_6.gif

 

------current prices-----> au0365nyb.gif

----au0365nyb.gif :

------------------------------

 

Historical 4-6mos cycle, going into year end - ready to turn up ?? ... update

GLD-12mos_zpsv7yblf6w.gif

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There is also said to be an 8-year cycle in Gold prices

 

20130805as_image002.png

 

>The Aden sisters: http://www.kitco.com/ind/Aden/2013-08-05-Believe-It-or-Not-Gold-s-8-Year-Cycle-Still-on-Track.html

.
LOWS--: mo: $-Price- : mo : High : $-Price : +%chg : L>L: %Drop :

Dec. 69 : 00 : $035.17 : 63 : 02/75 : $185.25 : +427.%: 80 : -44.1% : Prev. Drop '69>76
Aug. 76 : 18 : $103.50 : 41 : 01/80 : $850.00 : +721.% 104: -66.6% :
Feb. 85 : 61 : $284.25 : 34 : 12/87 : $499.75 : +75.8%: 96 : -34.6% :
Feb. 93 : 62 : $327.60 : 36 : 02/96 : $408.00 : +24.5%: 96 : -21.8% :
Feb. 01 : 61 : $256.25 : 84 : 03/08 : 1011.25 : +295.%: 93 : -27.9% :
Nov. 08 : 08 : $729.50 : 34 : 09/11 : 1895.00 : +160.%: 85 : -44.3% : Similar ??, if $1,055
Dec. 15: 51 : 1055.45: 48? 12/19 : 4000.00 : +280.%?

=======

Kitco Data : http://www.kitco.com/charts/historicalgold.html

 

Updated

ab.gif_zpsxuybmlaq.png

 

(Gold cycles, are also mentioned here):

 

Gold/Silver Nearing Cycle Low - 17 Year Cycle

17yearcycle.com/uncategorized/goldsilver-nearing-cycle-low/

Jun 27, 2015 - The 17–18 week high-high-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression – that amounts to that ~4-month cycle – pinpoints July 13–17th as the ideal time ...

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You can bet on a 1-2 months upturn using call options

 

Gold-log_zpsf4dfxwhs.png

 

GOLD Call trade?

A beginning of year trade idea

.

With the great set-up we are seeing now - ie with the high short positions...
Let's see how we might structure an options trade that could be done, with the expectation of a +10% rise by the Feb. Options expiry date for the GLD trade. and by +10% by the Jan. expiry for the UGL (x2) trade - There were no Feb. calls for UGL.

.

=== current : +10%-T : strike Call-Vl : Target : %-Gain :
Feb.C
GLD : 103.00 : 113.00 : 102C: $02.89 : $11.00 : +280.6%
GLD : --------- : --------- : 105C: $01.43 : $08.00 : +459.4
GLD : --------- : --------- : 108C: $00.68 : $05.00 : +635.3
GLD : --------- : --------- : 110C: $00.42 : $03.00 : +614.0
Jan.C
UGL : $30.65 : $33.70 : $28C: $02.73 : $05.70 : +108.8%
UGL : --------- : --------- : $29C: $01.85 : $04.70 : +154.1
UGL : --------- : --------- : $30C: $01.13 : $03.70 : +227.4
UGL : --------- : --------- : $31C: $00.62 : $02.70 : +335.5

 

Updating prices, after yesterday's price Drop

.

GLD / Gold : 102.27 - 0.79 : - 0.76% (T: 113.00 +10.49%)
GDX / Shs . : $13.79 - 0.48 : - 3.36% (T: $16.00 +16.03%)
Nugt / 3X .. : $24.99 - 2.57 : - 9.33% (T: $37.00 +48.06%)

.
=== : --------- : --------- : Strike : Feb. -- : Mar. -- : target :
GLD : 102.27 : 113.00 : 102C: $02.43 : $03.08 : $11.00 : +257.1%
GLD : --------- : --------- : 105C: $01.18 : $01.98 : $08.00 : +304.0%
GLD : --------- : --------- : 108C: $00.43 : $01.15 : $05.00 : +334.8%
GDX : $13.79 : $16.00 : $12C: $01.91 : $02.17 : $04.00 : + 84.3%
GDX : --------- : --------- : $13C: $01.20 : $01.53 : $03.00 : + 96.1%
GDX : --------- : --------- : $14C: $00.65 : $01.01 : $02.00 : + 98.0%
nugt : $24.99 : $37.00 : $25C: $03.35 : $05.50 : $11.00 : +100.0%
nugt : --------- : --------- : $28C: $02.57 : $04.35 : $09.00 : +131.7%
nugt : --------- : --------- : $30C: $02.12 : $03.85 : $05.00 : + 29.9%

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Updating prices, after yesterday's price Drop

Symbol---- : YrLow : -12/28 : -12/30 : change : Pct.- :
GLD / Gold : 100.23 : 102.27 : 101.42 : - 0.78 : - 0.76% (T: 113.00 +10.49%)
GDX / Shs . : $12.62 : $13.79 : $13.66 : - 0.29 : - 2.08% (T: $16.00 +16.03%)
Nugt / 3X .. : $21.70 : $24.99 : $24.08 : - 1.52 : - 5.94% (T: $37.00 +48.06%)
VIX- / vol. .. : #10.88 : #00.00 : #17.29 : +1.21 : +7.52%
.
=== : --------- : --------- : Strike : Feb. -- : Mar.- : target :
GLD : 101.42 : 113.00 : 102C: $01.89 : $02.55 : $ 11.00 : +331.3%
GLD : --------- : --------- : 105C: $00.85 : $01.63 : $08.00 : +390.8%
GLD : --------- : --------- : 108C: $00.37 : $00.91 : $05.00 : +449.5%
GDX : $13.66 : $16.00 : $12C: $01.83 : $02.08 : $04.00 : + 92.3%
GDX : --------- : --------- : $13C: $01.08 : $01.43 : $03.00 : +109.8%
GDX : --------- : --------- : $14C: $00.56 : $00.92 : $02.00 : +117.4%
nugt : $24.08 : $37.00 : $25C: $03.25 : $05.00 : $11.00 : +120.0%
nugt : --------- : --------- : $28C: $02.23 : $04.00 : $09.00 : +125.0%
nugt : --------- : --------- : $30C: $01.75 : $03.45 : $05.00 : + 44.9%

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I managed to pick up some GLD calls last night (12/31)

 

I went for the GLD March $103-calls, paying $2.14 per call.

 

If GLD hits my $113 target by then, they will be worth $10 each.

That's a very nice +367% return.

 

Gold-toUSD_zps2zk6n4gi.png

 

Gold: $1,060.5
DXY : 98.693
Ratio: R10.75 (AU/dxy) = New Low

 

I will keep my fingers crossed!

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Dan Norcini

 

AB_zpstpvkuib1.png

 

Gold : Another Losing Year Thursday December 31, 2015

Here is a long term chart ( monthly) showing where the price of gold ended last year ( 2014 ) and where it is ending up this year.

Chart_15-12-31_07-06-41.png

I have drawn in two Fibonacci retracement levels formed off of the entire rally beginning in 2001 to the final top in 2011. As you can see, the price looks to close out this year below the 50% retracement level. In other words, gold has lost more than half of its bull market gains since peaking in 2011.

You can also see why that region near $1080 is so significant from a technical analysis perspective.

I have no idea where gold might go next year as I am not in the business of making price predictions. We will leave that for the gold prophets and various gold cult websites since there is never any consequence for making yet another failed price prediction, especially when the ability to blame any such failure on “gold price manipulation by sinister bullion banks” is always a convenient foil.

What I can say is the last level of downside chart support before the psychologically significant $1000 level lies just below the current price. That level is between $1040-$1030. If gold loses this support level, it is going to $1000.

As unlikely as that might seem to some, below $1000, there is not much in the way of further chart support until one nears the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level near $890 ( let’s call it $900 for round number purposes).

This market still shows no serious sign of having forged a long term bottom. From a pure chart perspective, that will not occur until or unless gold can at least get back above the closing 2014 level of $1184. Even at that, it might only mean another long period of a sideways moving market.

, , ,

Here is a chart comparing the gold price with the reported holdings of GLD. The gold cult may pooh-pooh this with their usual cries of “price manipulation” or whatever but the simple fact remains – as the reported holdings of GLD have fallen, so too has the price of gold. When those were rising, as they were from late 2008 until that time, the price of gold also rose. There is simply no getting around this if one wants to be honest ( we cannot help those who are mentally dishonest).

gld-1.jpg

To date, this giant gold ETF has shed over 65 tons of gold since the start of the year. The result has been to bring the amount of gold in custody to levels last seen SEVEN YEARS AGO, to September 2008 to be more precise. This gauge of Western-based investment demand tells us a great deal when it comes to sentiment towards gold here in the West. Without this source of demand, gold simply cannot embark on any sustained rise in price.

 

> http://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2015-12-31/Gold-Another-Losing-Year.html

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Gold Stocks - The Biggest and Baddest Bear

 

20151231jrb_image008.gif

 

> source: http://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2015-12-31/2016-Outlook-for-Precious-Metals.html

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BRADLEY for Gold

 

There's a Bradley model for Gold, and it is Bullish, but it doesn't get going until March

2016-Gold-USD-Bradley-Siderograph-Turn-D

 

> source: http://bradleysiderograph.com/2016-turn-dates-gold/

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I managed to pick up some GLD calls last night (12/31)

 

I went for the GLD March $103-calls, paying $2.14 per call.

 

If GLD hits my $113 target by then, they will be worth $10 each.

That's a very nice +367% return.

 

So far, so Good (for gold, but not silver)

 

GLD closed yesterday/Wed. at $104.67 - with the Mar.$103 Calls at; $3.75/$3.85 : $3.80 mid, up 77.5% from the trade price

GBS is trading on Thursday : $105.24 +$1.27 : +1.22%

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Taking Profits on Gold Calls

 

See the Cycle charts - Gold may be peaking here:

 

CYCLE Tester - Compare Current cycle, with the prior one. GLD-12mos

Compare 5mos & 4mos earlier

au0365nyb.gif : t24_au_en_usoz_6.gif

 

------current prices-----> au0365nyb.gif

----au0365nyb.gif :

------------------------------

 

(as I posted elsewhere):

 

Have you seen Gold, recently?

D. was questioning me about my purchase of Gold - and I made this comment 33 days ago:

"In my case, I paid about $10,000 or about 2%, to control approximately $500,000 worth of gold - that's the HK $4 million value mentioned above. These options are now in-the-money, with a $103 strike price, while GLD closed at $106+ yesterday. GLD was a little below $102 when I did the trade on 12/31/2015.

The beauty of this trade is, up to the March 2016 expiry, I cannot lose more than the options premium that I paid (ie about $10,000), The Silver trade you keep referring to happened over a year ago. And it involved calls as well. In that case, I lost the entire premium. Since then, I have had several winning and losing trades on options. I mentioned this one, because I would not have done the trade if I had not sold my HK property. And when I was pondering the size of the underlying contract (HK $4 million), I was very aware that I have approximately that value invested in Time Deposits. The point is that, using options you can effectively shift parts of your portfolio in and out of various sectors, and do it with very limited risk.

The Gold trade was inspired by the Cycles I have been following, which I identified, analyzed and discussed pretty thoroughly on a public forum before I did the trade. There is a strong seasonal tendency for gold to rise in January, and maybe February after a down year. And the 4-6 months cycle also lined up with this trade.'

=== ===

I can tell you that GLD /Gold was about $102 when I made the investment in Gold calls, It closed yesterday at $113,58 with Gold at $1,189 per ounce. - and I have now taken most of my profits on those calls, capturing a profit of over 200% on the cost of the calls. (The way I have played it, there's still some upside on what is now a spread position.)

There were some gaps left in recent days, and i have noticed that there is a tendency for such gaps to be filled, so there may be a correction soon. (If the charts look right, I may buy some new GLD calls during that correction.)

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Great trade, on that, DrB.

And I feel that you may be right on the intermediate peak, with gold needing to regroup while stocks get a relief rally.

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And.. caution is still warranted in proclaiming an end to the bear market until we have confirmation in the other precious metals - so far it is only gold that has passed it's Oct high.

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Great trade, on that, DrB.

And I feel that you may be right on the intermediate peak, with gold needing to regroup while stocks get a relief rally.

 

Thanks.

Yet the logic of selling here is embedded in the cycle, and the too-fast price rise, with the gaps inside.

$1200 was an obvious target, and some sellers would have been happy to unload when we approached that target yesterday

 

Meantime, we see this in Stocks overnight:

U.S. Stock Futures

arrowUp.gifS&P +19.50 / +1.06% Level 1,867.75 Fair Value 1,847.27 Difference 20.48

 

> http://money.cnn.com/data/premarket/

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Gold's 20 year chart suggests an important breakout may have occurred this week

 

Gold_zpsqs0bi0it.png

Long Term 20 Year charts for Commodities
=========
Gold....... : http://www.cstcharts...chartge.pl?gc.m
Silver..... : http://www.cstcharts...chartge.pl?si.m
Platinum. : http://www.cstcharts...chartge.pl?pl.m
Copper... : http://www.cstcharts...chartge.pl?hg.m
Crude Oil : http://www.cstcharts...chartge.pl?cl.m
Unleaded : http://www.cstcharts...chartge.pl?hu.m
NatGas... : http://www.cstcharts...chartge.pl?ng.m

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Paradoxically...

Even though I am watching for signs of Inflation, I think we may get a correction in Gold, which has run up too fast imho.

 

I have sold some (but not all) of my Gold, and late last week I bought Puts on Gold and Gold shares.

The maturities go out to April and June.

I expect to be reversing these positions, and adding to my longs if/when the 4 month Gold cycle bottoms in perhaps late March/ or April

 

The correction may have started on Friday, with the Pop & Drop Reversal;

GDX-vs-UGLD

GDX-vsUgld_zpsh0ehsoz3.gif

 

(I was happy to find that someone agrees with my assessment):

 

MP3 : Big Picture : http://www.financialsensenewshour.com/broadcast/fsn2016-0305-1.mp3

 

picture-758.jpg

 

Mar 5 – Jim welcomes back Tom McClellan of McClellan Financial Publications. Tom believes the markets have been in a bear market rally off the January/February lows. He sees another down-leg in March, leading to a more meaningful...

. . .

As to gold, Tom believes the rally this year has been overdone, and he expects gold will pull back soon, at least short-term. Tom also covers oil, interest rates, and the possibility of negative interest rates in the US. Also in this segment, Ryan Puplava

===

 

A trending move can go either upward or downward, and this indicator will not tell us which. To get that answer, we have to turn to other tools. One can either watch for whichever direction a breakout goes and run with it, or one can look elsewhere for guidance about the direction that is more likely.

For that answer, a couple of other charts are showing a compelling message.

 

02-Gold-COT-Mar-16.png

 

Data from the weekly Commitment Of Traders (COT) Report, published by the CFTC, show that commercial traders of gold futures have returned to a big net short position, much like what they were showing last October just before the drop to a lower price low. The commercial traders are the big money, and thus presumed to be the smart money. When they get to a big skewed position as a group, relative to what they have been doing recently, prices usually move in the direction that this group is betting on.

 

A similar message comes from the gold bullion ETF, GLD.

 

03-GLD-50-DEV-Mar-2016.png

 

Money has been pouring into GLD at the most rapid rate since early 2009, as investors are chasing the recent gold price pop. Those extra purchases can skew the share price, and so in order to keep the share price close to the net asset value, the sponsoring firm (State Street Global Advisors) issues more shares, and uses the proceeds to buy more gold bullion. This last chart looks at GLD assets, measured in terms of how far the total assets number is away from its own 50-day moving average. When there is a rapid rush like this into GLD, it is a sign of excessive speculation worthy of a top for gold prices.

 

So based on these sentiment indications, the likely direction for the new trending move suggested by the Choppiness Index would be downward.

=

> http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/tom-mcclellan/gold-preps-new-trending-move

 

He sees a Low in early April, followed by another Low in October (which could be lower)

And one of those lows could be the end of the Bear market..

 

Note: April + 4mos = Aug.

 

Tom McCl's website :: http://www.mcoscillator.com/

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The Gold Cycle of 4-6 months suggests a Low in late March/ April ... update

 

GoldCycles_zpsroyzy10g.gif

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Non-Confirmation?

GDX performed better than UGLD (gold x3) yesterday

 

MAR: SPY- : Chg : volume/ VIX : GDX: +-chg: -GLD- : Chg: volume: x10.?? WTI.Cr: -DXY- -Chg.- : --TLT- : Chg : Posts/Views cum'l

01: 198.11 +4.55 : 133.M: 17.70 : 18.57 - 0.81: 117.77 - 0.87 : 13.0M: 1232.7 $33.89* 98.373 +0.223 : 128.43 - 2.30 / 09, 009 : 048, 048
02: 199.00 +0.89 : 92.2M: 17.09 : 19.05 +0.48: 118.68 +0.91 : 8.69M: 1240.5 $34.73* 98.183 - 0.190 : 128.96 +0.53 / 02, 011 : 062, 0,120
03: 199.78 +0.78 : 91.6M: 16.70 : 19.82 +0.78: 120.73 +2.05 : 18.4M: 1264.9 $34.69* 97.640 - 0.543 : 129.43 +0.47 / 02, 013 : 062, 0,182

04: 200.43 +0.66 : 117.M: 16.86 : 19.71 - 0.11: 120.54 - 0.19 : 16.2M: 1260.1 $36.33* 97.224 - 0.416 : 128.60 - 0.83 / 05, 018 : 067, 0269
#

07: 200.59 +0.16 : 85.8M: 17.35 : 20.40 +0.69: 121.14 +0.60 : 9.18M: 1268.0 $37.98* 97.057 - 0.167 : 128.56 - 0.04 / 00, 029 : 000, 0500

=========

 

UGLD versus GDX ... 3-months / 10-d : 2-d :

GDX-vsUgld2_zpsopv2q3xh.gif

two days : / 10-d : 2-d :

ab_zps6tqgfnug.gif

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New Entry for LONG side - probably in April

 

Gold has begun to slide

 

Here's the HK-traded etf

 

HK-2840 ... update

HK2840_zpsqkpeuflf.gif

 

Mar. SPY- : Chg : volume/ VIX : GDX: +-chg: -GLD- : Chg: volume: x10.?? WTI.Cr: -DXY- -Chg.- : --TLT- : Chg : Posts/Views cum'l
11: 202.76 +3.22 : 119.M: 16.50 : 19.98 -0.40: 119.41 - 2.09 : 10.2M: 1251.1 $39.49* 96.197 +0.023 : 127.36 - 1.30 / 02, 042 : 123, 0870
14: 202.50 - 0.26 : 69.1M: 16.92 : 19.12 -0.86: 117.87 - 1.54 : 14.0M: 12360 $37.37* 96.560 +0.363 : 127.76 +0.40 / 00, 045: 000, 1138

Based on the cycles, Gold could be down into early April.

I identified some targets:

HK$885 / 7.75 = $114-GLD equiv.
HK$845 / 7.77 = $109

 

I retain a long term position in Gold, but also have some short term Puts on GLD; and Calls on DUST

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ECHO Peak in GLD? ($121.18), Peak in GDX: $21.42?

====

Prior Gold highs had an Echo Peak, where prices tried to rally back to the old highs and failed.

- see the Red bars in the chart below

 

Is that what we saw yesterday (Thursday 3/17) ?

If GLD falls back down, and the 8d MA crosses below the 21d MA, then the Sharp-Down part of the correction may begin,

 

GLD : 120.13 - 0.46 : -0.38% vol 9.64mn / O: 121.16, H: 121.18, L: 120.03 // off high: - 0.85% // 8d: 119.7, 21d: 118.8
GDX : $20.43 - 0.43 : -2.06% vol 103.mn / O: $21.05, H: $21.42, L: $20.37 // off high: - 4.64% // 8d: 19.95, 21d: 19.45

SLV. : $15.16 +0.29 : +1.95% vol 20.6mn / O: $15.11. H: $15.28, L: $15.00 // off high: - 0.89% // 8d: 14.74, 21d: 14.56

 

GLD (Gold etf) .12mos: 2mos: 10d / GDX-vs-UGLD / 2mos: GDX : SLV / EURusd : 2-mos : US$ 1.113 = Eur 0.898

GLD-12mos_zpssgohni72.gif

 

/ previous chart is below - it called the top to perfection /

GLD_zpsfxj2evzf.gif

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Major Cycle Low Upcoming in Gold

 

Gold_8-year_May2016.gif

May 19, 2016

There is a major cycle low looming for gold prices. Ideally it should arrive as a price low in late 2016. But based on history, it could arrive anytime between August 2016 and March 2017, and still fit within the normal tolerance.

Defining a normal tolerance for gold’s 8-year cycle is a pretty iffy proposition. We have only 5 prior examples to go by, and while they cover a period of over 40 years, anyone who ever studied statistics knows that n<30 is problematic. If you want to wait until n=30 before believing in this cycle, then you only have to wait until the year 2215.

If you are willing to accept the message from fewer iterations, then this week’s chart has some interesting insights to offer. A few years ago I constructed this idealized 8-year cycle pattern, and featured it in our newsletter. The one leg up, 3-waves down pattern has “worked” ever since gold finally started trading freely in 1975, with one major exception. From 2001 to 2009, the normal “left translation” flipped to a more bullish right translation mode. Aside from that one strong uptrending period, gold’s price pattern has matched this artificial pattern pretty well.

 

The relevance of that insight for the current period is that the next major 8-year cycle bottom is due this autumn. Ideally it should be due in February 2017, but another tool suggests that late 2016 is more likely to see the arrival of that bottom.

 

Gold_13%605_Mo_cycle_May2016.gif

There is a dominant 13-1/2 month cycle in gold prices. The next major cycle low is ideally due in October 2016, but gold regularly makes bottoms plus or minus a month from the ideal cycle bottoms. So this is not a tool that will allow anyone to reasonably pencil in a hard date for when the cycle low is due.

Still, an autumn 2016 bottom for the 13-1/2 month cycle fits well with the idea of a major 8-year cycle low due in late 2016 to early 2017. One additional insight from the 13-1/2 month cycle is that we have already seen “right translation” of the price pattern versus this cycle, and that one piece of information conveys bullish portents for the likelihood of a higher price high for gold in 2017, once we get past the upcoming big cycle low.

 

Bottom Line: We have two major long-term cycles, both calling for an important bottom in gold prices in late 2016. That’s a big deal. The two are independent of each other, and their confluence in calling for a bottom later this year has strong implications. Gold prices ought to be expected to drop downward into that cycle low, but more importantly we should expect a big uptrend to commence out of that major cycle bottom. It will be hard for gold bugs to be patient and wait for that major cycle low to arrive, but the long term cycles say that the ensuing rally should be worth the wait.

Tom McClellan
Editor, The McClellan Market Report : http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/major_cycle_low_upcoming_in_gold/

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Gold Money (ca:XAU) may be useful in timing the short 4-6 months cycle

 

XAU.t versus GLD and GDX ... update

 

XAU-GDXetc_zpsdwhafbef.gif

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Uranium’s Bearish Message for Gold

Uranium_June2016.gif

June 24, 2016

With the Brexit vote now decided, a lot of attention has turned to gold as a supposed “safety” asset. Most traders who lived through the big decline of 1980s do not think of gold as a “safe” asset. And the message of this week’s chart is that expectations for a big gold price rally from here may be misplaced.

 

A year ago, I wrote here about the role of uranium prices as a leading indication for what gold prices will do later. A 7-month lead time seems to be ideal for getting the best fit between the two plots.

The recent rise (since late 2015) in gold prices is a bit of a delayed reaction to the rise in uranium prices. But looking ahead from now, we can see that the recent drop in uranium prices is foretelling a drop in gold prices over about the next 6 months.

 

Gold can sometimes ignore uranium’s message, as we saw in 2009-2010 when gold trended higher in spite of uranium having trended downward. That was an adjustment process following uranium’s big spike up move in 2007, and uranium’s 2008-10 downtrend was a process of unwinding those excesses. So yes, there are exceptions to this model working perfectly.

Right now, we do not appear to have a bubble in uranium prices to suggest that something is amiss in the model. So I am expecting that gold should be able to stay with the program, and head downward into late 2016. Such a move would also fit well with the expectation from the 8-year cycle in gold prices.

Tom McClellan
Editor, The McClellan Market Report :

http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/uraniums_bearish_message_for_gold/

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GOLD and the 4-6 months Cycle

 

Updated - to 7/7/2016 : GLD: $ 129.74 (last low: $115 at end-May) / HK2840: $ 1,113

GLD2840-2013_zpse4dgo9nj.gif

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Though I did not record it in THIS thread, if you look at my Diary for Jan-April 2017,

I did manage to get in at/near the Dec. 2016 Low, and made some very good profits on NUGT options.

and some GLD options.

 

The recent challenge has been to lighten up, and prepare for the cyclical downturn.

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I said last month: "The current cycle may tell us a lot about where Gold is headed in 2017-18"

So far, it is not living up to its most Bullish potential,though the price has made some progress

 

Gold's 4-6 months Cycle:

 

Here's what I expected from the time of the "expected Dec. Cyclical low"

 

GLD: update: end-may: $116.06 +0.44/ UK:GBS: $115.50/ HK-2840: $ 898.5 /7.76= $115.80 : HK-3081: $29.35 r-30.61

GLD-12mos_zpsxmqnwhs4.gif

 

I managed to pick up some GLD calls the last day of 2015, ie 12/31.

(I went for the GLD March $103-calls, paying $2.14 per call.)

I also bought Jan.18 GLD and Feb.17 NUGT Calls on the Dec. 2016 Low.

 

Gold-toUSD_zps2zk6n4gi.png

 

... continues: Low, Dec.15th: 1129.8 / $103.04 = 10.96 / intraday: 1123/$103= 10.90

 

Gold-toDXY_zpsehk68ypw.png

 

 

 

Here's what happened - a Nice Rally ! But it may be petering out as we go into March (and April) ?

 

Cycles since GLD started trading

I ran this chart before selling about US$100k of Gold yesterday

 

GLD ... All-data

gld-cyc-0_zpsw1racqh3.gif

 

I was concerned that gold was running higher "on its own", without the participation of Gold shares.

and I thought the 4-6 mos cycle might be rolling over

 

I also produced this busy chart, expecting that NUGT might test expected support at about $10.00

(In my own chart work, I am accustomed to looking at such busy charts.)

nugt-12mo_zpswwldd0zz.gif

 

Later in the day, we saw a sharp drop in GDX (-5.35%) and in NUGT (-16.07%)

 

NUGT ... 12 mos : Last: $9.45 - $1.81 : -16.07%

nugt_zps1qvgqarn.gif

 

What we saw in the summer was: Gold chopped along in a high range, while GDX came down,

resulting in a GDX/GLD ratio that looks like this:

 

GDX-toGLD_zps07dbaqwx.png

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