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Hang Lung Properties / Group - good Buy near $14, $20?

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Hang Lung Group is correcting now, more than HLP... May be Setting up a good Buying opportunity?

ShOS: 2/1/19
HLG: 1.362.B : each HLG share is backed by 1.90 HLP shares
HLP: 4.498.B
Own: 2.591.B : 57.62% / compare: $21.15/ $17.22 = 122.8%, -35.4% disc. (5/29/19)

HK10 ... update


COMPARE / in edit - to May 7th :

HK10 vs HK101 . update : fr. May'18/ $21.90 vs $17.60 : r-124.4%, a narrowing gap! HK 101 price gets closer to HK10.


COMPARE - HLG owns over 57%* of HLP ++ some other assets *> 55.7% @YE'17 , 57.6% @2/1/19 (2.59B)

=========== : -- Aug. 2015 --- / --- April 2018 -- / --- May 2019 --- /
Company----- : Group- : -Props./ Group- : -Props./  Group- : -Props / Change : Change :
Stock Symbol: HK-10 : HK101 / HK-10 : HK101  /  HK-10 : HK101  /
Last Price---- : $29.10 : $17.40 / $23.95: $18.40 / $21.90: $17.60 / - 24.7% : +1.15% :
Hk10/Hk101: Ratio: R-167.2%/ Ratio: R-138.0%/ Ratio: R-124.4%/ Target 190%? (hlp/hlg shs OS)
vs190%Target $33.06 :-12.0% / $34.96 : -31.5%  / $33.44: -34.5% /
Low of year-- : $28.60 : $16.96 / $23.85 : $17.28  / $19.12: $13.90 /
Book Value-- : $56.86 : $29.50 / $61.06 : $30.27  / $63.49: $30.58 / +0.00% : +3.66% :
Price / Book- :  51.2 % : 59.0 % /  39.1 %:  57.1 % /  34.5 % : 57.6% /
Shares O/S -- : 1.35bn : 4.48bn / 1.36bn : 4.50bn /1.36bn : 4.50bn /
MktCap. HKD : $39.3B: $78.0B / $32.6B : $82.8B / $29.8B: $79.2B /
Earnings / sh :   $ 4.82 :  $ 2.52 /  $ 3.90 :  $ 1.81 / $ 3.88 / $ 1.80  /  -00.0% : - 28.6% :
P/E Ratio -------- : r-6.04 :  r-6.90 /    r-6.14 : r-10.17 /. r-5.64 : r-9.78  /
Yield -------------- : 1.30 % : 1.95 % /  3.34 % :  4.08 %/  3.65% :  4.26% :
Div. per share :  $ 0.38 : $ 0.34  /  $ 0.80 :  $0.75  /  $ 0.80 :  $0.75  / +111.% : +121.% :
Debt to Equity : --n/a--  : --n/a-  : 18.97%  :  17.69% :
EBITDA---------  :  --n/a--  : --n/a-  : $7.92B  :  $7.45B : $7.02B : $6.33B /
MCap/editda  :  --n/a--  : --n/a-  :  r- 4.12  :  r-11.11 :  r-4.24. : r-12.51 /
Free CF---------  :  --n/a--  : --n/a-  : (8.71B) :  (4.40B) :


Divs. 57.6% @YE'18 (2.59B) x 0.75= HK$1.92B - (1.36 x0.80= 1.09B)= +$810M positive /17.60= +46M HLP shs?

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Hang Lung Group has fallen back to near support .

I started buying again - at $22.20 and below

HK10 ... update


HK10 has been leading HK2823 / China A50  ... update : fr. May 2018 : HK$22.10 vs H$14.23





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ADDED more HK10 today - @ HK$22.05, near Day's Low

HK10 -etc ... update :


Tuesdays Prices, about 11am:

HK10  : $22.15 : unch., - 0.00% : 5.51%, 5.71
Hk101 : $17.66 : +0.16, +0.91% : 6.57%, 9.87
#2823: $14.40 : +0.06, +042% : 0.86%, N/A
10/101: R-1.254
 /2823 : R-1.538

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Kyle Bass thinks Hong Kong is in real trouble now : HK has spent 80% of its Rainy Day fund, defending its (over-valued currency)

J. Kyle Bass's Speech at CPDC Conference 4/25/19


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HK10 - a bounce finally on Friday !

HK10 ... update : 10d / Last: $21.65 +0.20


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FY 2018 Annual Report

Key Points of Letter to Shareholders in Hang Lung Group's FY 2018 Annual Report

  • For the 12 years between 2000 and 2011, private consumption (in mainland China) on average increased at almost 13% per year…In the ensuing six years of 2012 to 2017, the average annual growth slowed to a still respectable 10.4%. However, luxury goods sales were much more affected. The anti-corruption campaign in the past few years was certainly a major factor. The increase in overseas sales of such items was another. This trend only began to turn around towards the end of 2017.
  • By 2013 at the latest, most if not all of these top brands froze further advancement. A good number had to cut back the number of stores in many cities. The head office grip was so tight that moving a shop from one location to a much better location at comparable rents was rejected. This condition lasted through the end of 2017 and the beginning of 2018. Sentiments now have definitely turned and they are all opening new stores again. Their sales growth in China has been brisk of late.
  • Gifting involving government officials is long gone. The market has shifted into a healthier one where demand mainly comes from end users. The slow growth of the past five to six years has created pent-up demand. Since the salary rise of the target customers, especially younger professionals, has never stopped, this clientele that bought less when market sentiments were weak has now returned, and with more money to spend.
  • Many top brands have told us that the average age of their shoppers in the world, including China, is getting younger. This means that they now have even more fans and potential fans. The fashion name owners are also expecting that Beijing's efforts to bring overseas sales domestic will soon bear fruit. All these factors are once again fueling the expansion plans of luxury brands.
  • Expanding into tier-two cities in the mid-2000's was a necessary step for the long-term growth of the Company. We have been the "Home to Luxury" in Shanghai since the 2000's, and were expecting the same in other cities in the 2010's.
  • In the next two years, we will have completed more world-class commercial space on the Mainland than at any comparable period in our history -- a total of approximately 1.1 million square meters of luxury malls and office skyscrapers.
  • While being quite pleased with our business and its short- to medium-term prospects, we are also taking defensive measures. This is one reason why we have decided to soon build out our not inconsequential Mainland land bank of high-end serviced apartments. These are located in Heartland 66 in Wuhan, Center 66 in Wuxi, Forum 66 in Shenyang, and Spring City 66 in Kunming. I expect a healthy cash flow as well as profits therefrom.
  • In this sea of instability, China may in fact be a haven of relative tranquility. If so, then private consumption will rise and our business will benefit therefrom. Looking around the world, I consider myself fortunate to be engaged in our business on the Mainland.
  • In the more immediate term, I see gradual growth in our business for the rest of this year. The Hong Kong rental market performance should be similar to that of 2018. On the Mainland, it is quite possible that all our investment properties will do better than last year. The leap in the top line will begin next year, and the trend may last for several years. With a lag of say one to three years, the rental net profit should rise.

Key Points of Letter to Shareholders in Hang Lung Properties' FY 2018 Annual Report

  • Statistics show that private consumption in China is indeed slowing. The growth rate last year was probably not much more than 8%, the most sluggish in 15 years. There are many reasons for this, including the present trade war with the U.S. and the resulting slowdown in China's GDP growth. While this is in no way detrimental to the economy, it may temporarily blunt job growth. Lack of consumer confidence will likely result.
  • Our malls have performed satisfactorily, not only in Shanghai but also elsewhere.
  • In the past few months, we have signed many leases with top luxury brands and more are forthcoming. Of the total of 30-some new contracts, about two-thirds are outside Shanghai… Forum 66 is expected to gain a few more top brands, while Center 66 will very soon become the "Plaza 66 of Wuxi". Spring City 66 in Kunming will be the city's "Home to Luxury" from the day it opens its doors later this year.
  • This development tells us several things. First, top fashion brands are expanding again in mainland China. Second, we are one of their preferred landlords in Shanghai as well as in other key cities. Third, Beijing's recent policies to stimulate private consumption are working, even for high-end goods -- perhaps particularly well for high-end goods.
  • These prestigious fashion groups must have conducted careful research before deciding to expand in China. Many of them have been operating in the country for two decades or more and are therefore experienced. Most of them over-expanded in the 2000's and suffered the consequences during the bear market of 2012 to 2017…They know well the statistics that showed a weakening in personal consumption growth but are undeterred.
  • There seems to be a divergence in the market place between ordinary spending and that for luxury items. While the former may be weakening, we have seen the opposite in the latter. This view is confirmed by the experience of selective high-end facilities owned by others. Like us, they are also faring well. The recent results of certain European fashion houses spoke to the same.
  • While enjoying an advantageous industry environment, we do not forget that there are many worrying developments in the geopolitical and geo-economic spheres. Consequently, we constantly take precautionary measures to mitigate any possible negative effect.
  • We should all be prepared for a prolonged period of uncertainties and difficulties.
  • I believe that the trade war is not only not detrimental to our industry; it may in fact help, at least in the near term. Concerned that the country's GDP growth will be adversely affected, Beijing has been taking measures to stimulate its slowing economy…All these measures will help boost consumer spending. This should be music to our ears.

> https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hang-lung-publishes-2018-annual-095600841.html

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Hang Lung: The Price GAP narrows, as higher yielding HK101 outperforms HK10

HK101/ HLP vs HK10 / HLG ... update : 10d. w/Hk2823 : $17.66 +0.44 > $21.50 +0.15, Gap: $2.84 / Ratio: 82.1%


Date-- — : Hk10-: HK101: $Gap : Ratio- / Dv.80: Dv.75: gap-: R.Yields:
BookVal. : $63.49: $30.58: NMF-: r48.2%/ 80cts. 75cts. 5cents: R-div. :
Earns/sh.: $03.88: $01.80: $2.08: r46.4%/
Dividends: $0.80 : $0.75 : $0.05: r93.8%/
05/16/19: $21.50: $17.66: $2.84 : r82.1%/ 3.72% 4.25%: 0.53%: r87.5%:
12/31/18: $19.94: $14.92: $5.02 : r74.8%/ 4.01% 5.03%: 1.02%:  r79.7%:
06/29/18: $22.00: $16.18: $5.82 : r73.5%/
12/29/17: $28.75: $19.10: $9.65 : r66.4%/
06/30/17: $32.30: $19.50: 12.80 : r60.4%/
12/31/16: $26.50: $16.02: 10.48 : r60.5%/ 3.02% 4.68%: 1.66%: r64.5%:

HK10 is earning way more than its dividend, and using the excess to increase its holding of HK101.

So the backing of HK10 has gotten stronger and stronger & its dividend "safer" possibly

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Not off hand.

I will try to do some checking

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Story image for hang lung news from Yahoo Finance: Story image for hang lung news from Mingtiandi

Is Now An Opportune Moment To Examine Hang Lung Properties ...

Yahoo Finance-16 May 2019
Hang Lung Properties Limited (HKG:101), which is in the real estate business, and is based in Hong Kong, received a lot of attention from a ...
A question to answer is whether Hang Lung Properties's current trading price of HK$17.86 reflective of the actual value of the mid-cap? Or is it currently undervalued, providing us with the opportunity to buy? Let’s take a look at Hang Lung Properties’s outlook and value based on the most recent financial data to see if there are any catalysts for a price change.
The stock seems fairly valued at the moment according to my relative valuation model. I’ve used the price-to-earnings ratio in this instance because there’s not enough visibility to forecast its cash flows. The stock’s ratio of 9.94x is currently trading slightly above its industry peers’ ratio of 6.22x, which means if you buy Hang Lung Properties today, you’d be paying a relatively reasonable price for it.

Hang Lung Said Selling Kowloon Industrial Building for HK$4B

Mingtiandi-9 May 2019

Hong Kong-listed developer Hang Lung Properties is said to have agreed to sell an industrial building in Hong Kong's Cheung Sha Wan area ...

Hong Kong-listed developer Hang Lung Properties is said to have agreed to sell an industrial building in Hong Kong’s Cheung Sha Wan area to a consortium of investors for HK$4 billion ($510 million), according to local media accounts citing sources familiar with the reported transaction.

The developer known for its Plaza 66 commercial project in Shanghai and a host of Hong Kong residential developments has yet to announce a deal involving the building at 9 Wing Hong Street in the northwest Kowloon district, however, the sources cited in the story indicated that a statement is imminent.

The 379,139 square feet (35,223 square meter) building, which is currently leased to office tenants, is the most valuable among a set of four assets which Hang Lung put on the market at the beginning of this year in a drive to raise capital as the developer undertakes new commercial projects in Hong Kong following a challenging 2018.

Selling Properties After a 2018 Sales Slide

Should Hang Lung receive the reported compensation for the 35-storey tower, it would be equivalent to a price of just over HK$10,550 per square foot for the building where office units are currently listed at rates of HK$24 per square foot per month. The building, which has three floors of parking below 35 storeys of office space has floor plates ranging from 9,500 to 12,017 square feet.

Ronnie Chan Hang Lung

Hang Lung’s Ronnie Chan looks pleased to have found a buyer for one of his Kowloon properties

The 1997 vintage building is located around 200 metres from the Lai Chi Kok subway station and the property has already been approved for commercial use.

In February of this year, local media reported that Hang Lung, in a bid to offload non-core properties, had appointed an agent to sell a set of four assets for a total of HK$9 billion in a tender scheduled to end in April.

Why Hang Lung Properties Limited's (HKG:101) High P/E Ratio Isn't ...

Simply Wall St-21 May 2019
Today, we'll introduce the concept of the P/E ratio for those who are learning about investing. To keep it practical, we'll show how Hang Lung ...

Theoretically, a business can improve its earnings (and produce a lower P/E in the future) by investing in growth. That means taking on debt (or spending its cash).

Such spending might be good or bad, overall, but the key point here is that you need to look at debt to understand the P/E ratio in context.

So What Does Hang Lung Properties’s Balance Sheet Tell Us?

Net debt is 26% of Hang Lung Properties’s market cap. You’d want to be aware of this fact, but it doesn’t bother us.

The Verdict On Hang Lung Properties’s P/E Ratio

Hang Lung Properties’s P/E is 9.8 which is below average (11.2) in the HK market. The debt levels are not a major concern, but the lack of EPS growth is likely weighing on sentiment.

Investors should be looking to buy stocks that the market is wrong about...


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DIVIDEND FLOW: In 2018, HLG bot 87M HLP sh x $17.38= $1,512M Cost, now owns 57.6% HLP


UPDATE: 5/28/19
/ HLP @ $17.38 = HLPPY: US$11.09
/ 57% $30.58 BV
(57.62%: 2.59B)
(x$0.75: $1.94B > Excess CF: $850M > HLG, Net Div. Flow
/ HLG @ $21.05 = HNLGY: US$13.18 (118.8%)
/ 33% $63.49 BV
(100% : 1.362B)
(x$0.80: $1.09B)
/ In 2018, HLG bot 87M HLP sh x $17.38= $1,512M, spending $662M more than Net Divs

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Another heavy day of trading, think I'll watch only for now.

Although if correlated with silver, may also make the case of capitulation selling.

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I have bought HK10 (HLG), not HK101

Based on the #HLP shares it owns, HLG should be trading at 190% of HLP

It does NOT trade that high because HLP has a higher dividend yield

w/HLP : HK$21.05 vs H$17.38 = 121% at 5/28/19

Now down to near 120% - that is too big a discount to persist imho

Chairman Ronny Chan sounded highly confident about the future of Luxury retail in China

> VIDEO Jul.18: https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/video/hang-lung-properties-chairman-expects-hong-kong-demand-to-be-strong~1450668

I am back to nearly my MAX size holding in HK10.  Let's see how it goes from here.

The Silver coorelation is, well, historic perhaps but not easy to explain, so it may come with lags, if at all.

I own lots of Silver / SLV calls now too


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Hang Lung Properties (HK101) keeps outperforming HL Group - because of the Yield maybe?

HK101 - vs. HK10 & HK2823 ... 10d : 6mo : Last:


: 6mo :


Date-- — : Hk10-: HK101: $Gap : Ratio- / Dv.80 : Dv.75 : Y.Gap: R-Yields:
BookVal. : $63.49: $30.58: NMF-: r208.% / 80cts. 75cts. 5cents: r107.%. :
Earns/sh.: $03.88: $01.80: $2.08: r216.%/
Dividends : $0.80 : $0.75 : $0.05 : r107.%/
06/27/19: $21.15: $18.52: $2.63 : r114.%/  3.78% 4.05%: 0.27%:  r93.3%:
05/26/19: $20.50: $18.46: $2.04 : r111.%/
05/16/19: $21.50: $17.66: $3.84 : r122.%/  3.72% 4.25%: 0.53%:  r87.5%:
12/31/18 : $19.94: $14.92: $5.02 : r134.%/ 4.01% 5.03%: 1.02%:  r79.7%:
06/29/18: $22.00: $16.18: $5.82 : r136.%/
12/29/17: $28.75: $19.10: $9.65 : r151.%/
06/30/17: $32.30: $19.50: 12.80 : r166.%/
12/31/16: $26.50: $16.02: 10.48 : r165.%/ 3.02% 4.68%: 1.66%: r64.5%:

THAT was yesterday.  Today we have:

HK10 / Hang Lung Group.          : $22.00 +0.85, +4.02%
HK101 / Hang Lung Properties : $18.60 +0.08, +0.43%
————————————------> Gap : $ 3.40 : +0.77, r-118.3%

I managed to buy some Hk10 shares at $20.45 in that recent dip

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On 6/27/2019 at 2:55 PM, hector said:

I see a small bounce at least for HK10. But silver is now falling again, and the extradition protests are not over.

Today we have: / Friday chart added in edit ... update/ Last: $21.65 +0.50 / $18.58 +0.06 = Gap: $3.07, r-117.%


HK10 / Hang Lung Group.          : $22.00 +0.85, +4.02%
HK101 / Hang Lung Properties : $18.60 +0.08, +0.43%
————————————------> Gap : $ 3.40 : +0.77, r-118.3%

I managed to buy some Hk10 shares at $20.45 in that recent dip

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China Stocks jump... as Trade talks are "back on"

HK2823 / iShares FTSE A50 China Index ETF

HK2823 vs hk10, hk101 ... 6mos : 10d / Last: $15.32 +0.38, +2.54%. Hk10: $21.85, +0.92, Hk101: $18.64, +0.32%


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HL Group (HK10) is still lagging Properties (HK101)

HK10 -vs-HK101 ... update : $21.90: $19.06: $2.84 : r115.%/ $22.00 / $20.00 : R-ss. Gap: $2.00


Date-- — : Hk10-: HK101: $Gap : Ratio- / Dv.80 : Dv.75 : Y.Gap: R-Yields:
BookVal. : $63.49: $30.58: NMF-: r208.% / 80cts. 75cts. 5cents: r107.%. :
Earns/sh.: $03.88: $01.80: $2.08: r216.%/
Dividends : $0.80 : $0.75 : $0.05 : r107.%/
07/11/19: $21.90: $19.06: $2.84 : r115.%/ 3.65% 3.93%: 0.28%:  r92.9%:
07/10/19: $21.55: $18.84: $2.71 : r114.%/ 3.71%  3.98%: 0.27%: r93.2%:
06/27/19: $21.15: $18.52: $2.63 : r114.%/  3.78% 4.05%: 0.27%:  r93.3%:
12/31/18 : $19.94: $14.92: $5.02 : r134.%/ 4.01% 5.03%: 1.02%:  r79.7%:
12/31/16: $26.50 : $16.02: 10.48 : r165.%/ 3.02% 4.68%: 1.66%:  r64.5%:

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