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Hang Lung Properties / Group - good Buy near $14, $20?

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This change of opinion might have helped a bit...

But not a lot, since HLP has been riding the trend of HSI, and other property shares

 

HLPPY - : Low (09/29) US$11.38: US$ (10/09): US$11.79: +3.60%
HLP/101 : Low (09/29) : $17.14 / Last (10/12) : $ 18.50 : + 7.93%
HLG/10- : Low (09/29) : $26.35 / Last (10/12) : $ 27.95 : + 6.07%
HK : HSI- : Low (09/29) : 20,557 / Last (10/12) : 22,671 : + 10.3%
R:10/101: Low (09/29) : R1.537 / Last (10/12) : R1.511 : - 1.70%
R:hsi/101: Low (09/29) : R1,199 / Last (10/12) : R1,225 : + 2.21%

 

Hang Lung Properties Limited Stock Rating Upgraded by Zacks ...
Financial Wisdom Works-1 Oct 2015
Hang Lung Properties Limited logo Hang Lung Properties Limited (NASDAQ:HLPPY) was upgraded by Zacks from a “strong sell” rating to a ...

Shares of Hang Lung Properties Limited (NASDAQ:HLPPY) traded down 0.18% during midday trading on Tuesday, reaching $11.38. The company’s stock had a trading volume of 4,913 shares. The company has a 50 day moving average of $11.56 and a 200-day moving average of $14.20. Hang Lung Properties Limited has a 52 week low of $10.85 and a 52 week high of $17.12. The stock has a market capitalization of $10.21 billion and a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.00.

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HLP / hk101 continues to outperform HLG / hk10 ... update

 

HK10-v101_zpsaulgqimc.gif

 

Stock- : Low 09/29 : 10/12- : 10/19- : + Chg.- : + Pct. +
HLP/101 : - $17.14 / $18.50 / $19.48 / +$2.34 : +13.7%
HLG/10- : - $26.35 / $27.95 / $28.40 / +$2.05 : + 7.78%
HK : HSI- : 20,557. / 22,671 / 23,076 / +2,521 : +12.3%
R:101/10 : 65.05% / 66.19% / 68.59% /

 

That 68.6% is HIGH in a historical context / well above the 52% Ratio of BKV:

 

QTR : HK-10 : HK101 : Ratio- : -CCLI - : hlp/CC :
e.13: $39.15 : $24.50 : 62.80% : 118.96 : 20.60% :
Q-1 : $39.05 : $22.30 : 57.11% : 118.82 : 18.77% :
Q-2 : $41.95 : $23.90 : 56.97% : 123.35 : 19.38% :
Q-3 : $38.45 : $22.10 : 57.48% : 127.65 : 17.31% :
e.14: $35.20 : $21.75 : 61.79% : 133.34 : 16.31% :
Q-1 : $35.35 : $21.80 : 61.67% : 142.64 : 15.28% :
Q-2 : $34.15 : $23.05 : 67.50% : 143.15 : 16.10% :
Q-3 : $26.30 : $17.36 : 66.01% : 147.61 : 11.76% : Lowest ratio vs CCLI
e.15:
BkV. : $56.86 : $29.50 : 51.88%
10.19: $28.40 : $19.48 : 68.59% : 144.61 : 13.47% :

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Bizarrely, Hang Lung Group seems to have some broad correlation with Gold

 

HLG / HL10 / Hang Lung Group ... update

 

ab_zpsrreja10n.gif

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Dinner and a movie? No thanks, says Ronnie Chan.
Hong Kong’s Hang Lung Properties expert slams plans to turn malls into entertainment hubs.

Property experts say that malls should become entertainment complexes to adapt

 

Wed., 02 December, 2015

hunglung-parc66a_0.jpg?itok=NECxIl6t

 

To combat growing competition and declining retail sales, some experts say that shopping malls must become entertainment complexes. The chairman of Hong Kong-listed Hang Lung Properties argues that this is unprofitable.

China’s economy is slowing down, as well as its retail sector. As shopping centres struggle to deal with a glut in the market and rising competition from e-commerce players, property experts say that malls need to transition to become a social place for consumers rather than just a space for commerce in order to survive.

“The function of the shopping mall has changed, and the boundary between commerce and living has been blurred,” said Cathy Hau, executive director of Citic Capital. “(Malls have) become an extension of your living place.”

 

In China, more shopping centres are increasing the scope of entertainment and food and beverage areas in an attempt to boost traffic and retention in their facilities. The percentage of food and beverage in malls have increased dramatically, by “at least” 30 per cent, said Christine Lam, executive director of architecture and design firm Aedas.

In the third quarter of this year, economic growth in the mainland fell to 6.9 per cent - the lowest rate since the financial crisis. According to statistics from Wind Financial, 60 per cent of the 26 listed Chinese department store operators also reported a year-on-year decline in profit, with several referencing “weakening macro conditions” and logging net losses.

 

hunglung-parc66b_0.jpg?itok=37Ab1vne

Malls should be built and marketed in a way that does not prioritise entertainment.

 

Despite the downturn, Ronnie Chan, chairman of Hang Lung Properties, argued against the model and said that a transition towards more “experiential” malls would mean a loss in profits. Malls can be built and marketed in a way that does not prioritise entertainment, he said.

 

“Whenever I hear that, I’m very sad,” Chan said, adding that it’s important to think about the shareholders’ interests. “Restaurants don’t pay rent … or high rent. Those are low return leaders in terms of driving traffic.”

Although Chan knows properties that have an entertainment make-up of close to 70 per cent, he emphasised that Hang Lung properties in the mainland do not follow this trend, although they may include cinemas on the upper floors to drive traffic. Restaurants only account for about 17 per cent in Shanghai’s Plaza 66, he said.

Regarding the issue of oversupply in the market, Chan said that most of the malls in China are low quality and thus there are still ample opportunities for developers.

“There’s only five players that know how to do really good quality, four star or five star shopping malls in China,” Chan said. “If you build one of those, you’ll be fine.”

===

 

> more: http://www.scmp.com/property/article/1885973/malls-become-entertainment-complexes-hong-kongs-hang-lung-properties

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JLL (& hlp) currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).

Investors interested in the real estate operations industry may also consider stocks like Colliers International Group Inc. (CIGI - Snapshot Report),
Hang Lung Properties Limited (HLPPY - Snapshot Report) and Henderson Land Development Co. Ltd. (HLDCY - Snapshot Report). While Colliers International Group sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), both Hang Lung Properties and Henderson Land Development hold the same Zacks Rank as JLL.
end october:
Hang Lung Properties Limited Upgraded to "Buy" by Zacks (HLPPY)
Dakota Financial News-Oct 28, 2015
Hang Lung Properties Limited logo Zacks upgraded shares of Hang Lung Properties Limited (NASDAQ:HLPPY) from a hold rating to a buy ...
back in march 2015:
Hang Lung Properties looks to rental boost from makeover of key HK ...
South China Morning Post (subscription)-Mar 5, 2015
Hang Lung Properties is counting on a HK$500 million makeover of its main retail properties in Mong Kok and Causeway Bay to boost its rental ...
Hang Lung bags H&M flagship
Hong Kong Standard-Mar 5, 2015

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Topped up some HLG/ HK-10 today at $25.35-25.40

 

HLG broke $26, to new low at $25.25 while HLP held $18 (above its $17 Low)

 

HLG /hk10 - long term : all data / HLP-all

HK10-Log_zps7nwoadst.gif

 

HLG /hk10 - daily chart : 3yr / HLP-3yr

HLG_zpsbkni2btc.gif

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China's plan to grow

 

Shanghai Composite Index / CN;ShComp ... 2-yr : 1-yr / HSI : 2-yr : 1yr / SH-vs-HSI : 2-yr : 1-yr

ShComp-2yr_zpsvd7oye9z.gif

 

 

China will use their growing Middle Class to Drive consumption

 

+ There's been a huge rise in upper class and affluent families in China, and Chinese leaders are ready

to use these to grow the economy. These two groups should double size in just 5 years, even in a slow economy

 

+ Together, these groups are 17%, versus just 7% five years ago

 

+ They are now 55% of urban consumption, and should rise to 81% by 2020;

they growth will be faster in smaller mainland cities, than Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou

 

OVERALL, the BGC survey is expecting 9% p.a. growth to US$6.5 trillion by 2020

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Very interested in Ronnie Chan's comments about restaurants.

My views are slightly different:

1. The most important thing as a mall owner is to ensure that the retailers are busy - with profitable footfall

2. Most mall owners fail to appreciate that a shop is scaled (ie costs) in terms of staff / inventory etc to the peak sales hours but the profitability is dependent on the average sales per hour. Admittedly a shop can add a couple extra staff to cope with peak but the number of checkouts etc have to be designed for peak.

3. Peak shopping (using a UK example) is typically Thurs / Friday evening and Saturday late afternoon / early evening.

4. Cinemas and restaurants help bring in people on other evenings etc.

5. However I believe that mixing in offices and residential would add to the average utilisation. Consider a mall with a number of office blocks sitting on top of it; and a few residential blocks. And ideally the mall itself sitting on top of a railway station. Within the complex there would also be gyms and maybe even a crèche etc.

6. The footfall during the day - eg office workers looking for lunch; residents going to and from work; etc would add to the footfall etc and tremendously increase the spend in the mall and hence its value.

7. I think the nearest example of this scenario I have come across is Canary Wharf in London. But also work looking at Bullring in Birmingham (which sits on / near a station). As Canary Wharf develops its residential areas and its studio workspaces it will be interesting to see how this measures out. But I think the proof it is seeing how busy the restaurants and hence the retail space is at Canary Wharf during lunch time in the average week.

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HK 10 / HLP ... update - last: $19.98 - Now targeting $18-20 ?

 

ab_zpsnbyxhehk.gif

 

Your comments make sense.

Many HK people rarely eat at home.

So they may have a meal at the mall several nights a week.

My Gf for instance, is a great fan of eating at IKEA (for reasons that escape me)

- she may even eat there twice a day. On the way to an afternoon teaching session; & again on the way home.

 

Have you ever looked at property in Manila, PH, now the most dense city on Earth (probably)

 

I am trying to understand the Office market there now : link

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REVIEW OF OPERATIONS - GROUP RESULTS

.

For the financial year ended December 31, 2015, total revenue of the Group decreased by 46% to HK$9,528 million because of fewer residential units sold compared to a year ago. Correspondingly, total operating profit decreased by 48% to HK$6,955 million. Revenue from property leasing increased by 7% to HK$8,330 million driven by continual growth of mainland China and Hong Kong portfolios.

Underlying net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 53% to HK$2,700 million. When including a smaller revaluation gain on investment properties against a year ago, net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by decreased by 53% to HK$3,211 million, Earnings per share decreased similarly to HK$2.37.

Revenue and Operating Profit

HK$ Million----- Revenue ----------------------- Operating Profit------

--------------------- : -2015: -2014: change : : -2015: -2014: change ::
Property Leasing :
: Mainland China : 4,625 : 4,354 : + 6 % - : : 3,005 : 3,090 : - 3 % - :
: Hong Kong ----- : 3,705 : 3,438 : + 6 % - : : 3,105 : 2,897 : + 7 % - :
Property Sales -- : 1,198 : 9,814 : - 88% - : : 0,845 : 7,419 : -89 % - :
------------ TOTAL : 9,528: 17,606: - 46% - : : 6,955: 13,406: -48 % - :

 

The board recommended a final dividend of HK61 cents per share for 2015 (2014: HK62 cents) to be paid by cash on May 18, 2016

 

Shopping Malls
Our eight shopping malls in mainland China collectively generated HK$3,287 million rent in 2015, up 6% year-on-year. The eight shopping malls are located in six cities on the including two each in Shanghai and Shenyang, and one each in Jinan, Wuxi, Tianjin and Dalian. The last two are the newest. Riverside 66 in Tianjin commenced operation in September 2014 and Olympia 66 in Dalian was unveiled on December 18, 2015.

Amidst a challenging retail environment in Shanghai, total rental income of our two flagship malls in Shanghai, Plaza 66 and Grand Gateway 66, was up 6% year million. Plaza 66 and Grand Gateway 66 posted 9% and 3% rental growth to HK and HK$1,196 million over a year ago, respectively.

The two malls continued to enjoy positive rental reversions in 2015. Their occupancy rates both stayed at 97% at the reporting date.
Retail sales of the malls at Plaza 66 and Grand Gateway ... despite sliding high-end sales on the Mainland.
Our asset enhancement programs in Shanghai were progressing well...

. . .

Our newest mall, Olympia 66 in Dalian, was unveiled on December 18, 2015. This 220,000 square-meter landmark building in Dalian is currently our largest shopping mall in mainland China. The mall is designed to bring fascinating entertainment, leisure and shopping experiences to Dalian with a world auditoriums has 400 seats. Against the backdrop of weak retail spending and with most international brands either contracting or freezing new shop openings on the Mainland, 124 tenants representing occupancy of 21% had commenced operations at the reporting date. Another 83 tenants accounting for additional 33% are fitting out at the same time. When including committed tenancies, occupancy rate reached 63% at the end of 2015.

 

Office
Revenue of our office portfolio in mainland China leaped 9% to HK$1,203 million in 2015.
The whole office portfolio comprises five Grade A office towers, including three office towers in Shanghai, i.e. two at Plaza 66 and one at Grand Gateway 66, plus one and Forum 66 in Shenyang which commenced operations in October 2014 and January 2015, respectively.
Total rent of the three office towers in Shanghai retreated 1% amidst an increasing supply of offices space. Revenue of the Plaza 66 office towers retreated by 2% year-on-year because of acceptance of marginally lower rent in order for quantum expansion by world-class tenants. Regular renewals and new lettings were achieving rent at the top range of the market.
===

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HK:10 / Hang Lung Group (HLG) .... 3-mos : 6-mos : 2-yrs : 5-yrs : All / Last: 21.75 : -0.20 : -0.91%

HK10-6mos_zpsf7zjtvjj.gif

 

/ MALL news from today's SCMP /

/ 1 /

Malls face slimmer profits amid economic slump

Restaurants, entertainment venues and fast-fashion flagship stores added to attract your shoppers

 

+ Several mainland store chains have posted profit warnings, reflecting weaker retail sales, an economic slowdown, and an e-commerce boom

+ Joy City Property (which has malls for young consumers) warned of a 50-60 percent drop in profits for 2015

+ Shenzhen-based Maoye International expects its 2015 profits to drop 80%, and was downgraded from B1 to Caa1

+ Life Style international, and upscale mall owner, reported a 10% drop in profits, and closed its mall in Shenyang in Dec.

 

Malls are reacting by adding more Restaurants, and entertainment venue; including other malls like Wanda Plaza.

Some analysts are predicting better results in 2016, after the changes.

"Department stores are doomed, said analyst David Hong,

..."adding that even among shopping malls, only those located in prime areas of bigger cities would survive due to population inflows"

"you need to have strong bargaining power and maintain good relationships with tenants."

 

Hang Lung, which invests in luxury shopping malls in the mainland, said sales of upmarket goods continue to fall as brands put expansion plans on hold.

 

Joy City Props. / HK:0207 ... 3-mos : 6-mos : 2-yrs : 5-yrs : All : Last : $1.05 : -0.02 : -1.87%

HK207_zps4oeccgib.gif

 

Maoye Int'l Hld / HK:0848 ... 3-mos : 6-mos : 2-yrs : 5-yrs : All : Last : $0.82 : -0.01 : -1.20%
HK848_zpsi3lkc5ti.gif

 

Life Style Int'l / HK:1212 ... 3-mos : 6-mos : 2-yrs : 5-yrs : All : Last / $9.61 : -0.04 : 0.41%

HK1212_zpse80dxk7b.gif

 

/ 2 /

Q&A interview with Maureen Fung Sau-yin of SHKP (China)

 

Her background: key person behind three large shopping malls: one in HK, and two in Shanghai w/ combined are of 3.1 million sf:

APM Mall (630k sf) in Kwun Ton, the IFC mall in Pundong, and the iAPM mall at 999 Haui Hai Zhong Rd., Shanghai

She was witnessed the boom and bust cycle in HK's retail market.

 

+ HK malls are located near MTR stations, and are experiencing rental growth, despite the diminshing number of big spenders from mainland china

+ Landlords of malls, have to react to changing customer behavior... there's still room for development in the food & beverage sector which could help attract shoppers to stay longer

+ There's an opportunity to attract foreign brands who are established in mainland china, to HK

+ In China, online shopping seems to be focused mainly in second and third tier cities (which have fewer shopping malls)

And online buyers do not focus on luxury items. China had US$45mn in online shopping, and HK had $1.53 billion

 

New Construction: from now to 2018, there will be an average of 1.6 million Sq M of new shopping space each year

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An Amazing Correlation with Silver - Why?

 

I have no idea why Hang Lung Group (HK10) and

these mainland Chinese shopping mall stocks should correlate with Silver.

But if you look closely at these stocks, you will see that they really do.

 

HK10 vs. SLV ... and also HK848, HK1212 ... 10-years : +HK207 : +GLD (orange)

HK10-10yrs-SLV_zpseqeukmhg.gif

 

Anyone have any ideas why this correlation may be occurring?

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Homebuyers snap up apartments with over 25 per cent discounts in southwest Kowloon
.

Homebuyers snapped up 36 seaview apartments put up for sale for the first time in 12 years by Hang Lung Properties

UPDATED : Monday, 18 April, 2016
8bf98280-03b4-11e6-a9b2-800cbf78bba6_128

Home buyers yesterday snapped up 36 seaview flats put up for sale by Hang Lung Properties for the first time at its 12-year-old Long Beach development in southwest Kowloon.

Rather than reflecting confidence in the property market, which is facing a significant downturn, they were attracted by discounts of up to 26.2 per cent off listed prices on units with sea views.

Hang Lung had been holding its inventory all these years at the estate in Tai Kok Tsui, hoping for a better market, but falling prices over the past year forced it to offer discounts and stamp duty rebates to lure buyers.

The developer said it had received 2,580 purchase applications for this batch of two- and three-bedroom flats ranging in size from 562 sq ft to 863 sq ft.

.

The average sale price was HK$14,000 per sq ft, after Hang Lung offered a 60 per cent buyer’s stamp duty rebate – the equivalent of a 9 per cent discount on the listed price – and a cash rebate of up to 1.2 per cent for those who bought more than one unit, among other concessions.

 

“The prices are down nearly 20 per cent compared with last year, so buyers find the prices reasonable,” said Sammy Po Siu-ming, chief executive of Midland Realty’s residental department. Hang Lung built the seaside complex, its largest residential project in Hong Kong, in 2005. It has 1,829 units in total, but only 400 were put up for sale from 2013 until now. More than 600 units are still available – the company has said they will be sold when market conditions are favourable.

“I think the developer will present some more units this year, but not all, given their track record,” Po said.

Hong Kong’s new home supply is expected to peak in two years’ time as projects launched in recent years are completed, raising the threat of a further downturn for developers.

Home prices are expected to fall a further 19 per cent up to the second quarter of 2017 according to Nomura, or even collapse by 60 per cent in the event of a 30 per cent one-time devaluation of the yuan or rate rises of 400 basis points by the US Federal Reserve over a two-year period.

Analysts said developers were resorting to offering more favourable terms and prices to compete for buyers before the market cooled further.

Hang Lung in January cut its final dividend for the first time in 16 years after core earnings for 2015 slumped 56 per cent, the biggest fall since 2011, to HK$4.38 billion. It sold 63 flats and some car-parking spaces during the year, which fetched HK$1.19 billion, down 88 per cent from a year earlier.

Separately, Sino Group yesterday sold 143 car-parking spaces with an average price of HK$2.47 million for residents of its Olympic station development, The Hermitage.

==

> http://www.scmp.com/property/hong-kong-china/article/1936618/homebuyers-snap-apartments-over-25-cent-discounts-southwest

 

Start with a HKD 9 million flat... Raise the price artificially to 11 million,
and "discount" it back to 9 million, and everyone's happy, I suppose??
==
Recent sales:
Reg.Date Estate------------ Block-- Floor-- Flat-- Area(ft2) Price (HK$)----- Price/ft2 Source
(Saleable/Gross) (Saleable) (Gross)
13/04/16 The Long Beach Block 6, Floor 05, Flat C, 549 747 Price $6.80 M $12,386 $ 9,103 Registry
12/04/16 The Long Beach Block 6, Floor 10, Flat E, 547 728 Price $7.20 M $13,163 $ 9,890 Registry
08/04/16 The Long Beach Block 8, Floor 26, Flat D, 546 742 Price $7.50 M $13,736 $10,108 Registry
08/04/16 The Long Beach Block 3, Floor 10, Flat D, 549 747 Price $7.15 M $13,024 $ 9,572 Registry
30/03/16 The Long Beach Block 3, Floor 17, Flat C, 549 747 Price $7.03 M $12,805 $ 9,411 Registry
24/03/16 The Long Beach Block 6, Floor 11, Flat E, 547 728 Price $7.00 M $12,797 $ 9,615 Registry

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Hang Lung back over $26

 

My positions are back in profit - a small one - so I have decided to slim it down somewhat

 

HK10 ... update : All-data : Last: $26.35

HK10_zpsdzseo2zh.gif

 

The other good news is that I collected a nice dividend earlier this year

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Homes slump 'bottoms out'
Dominique Nguy Jul 21, 2016

Morgan Stanley and Citibank believe the Hong Kong property market has bottomed out, forecasting that home prices will rise by 5-8 percent in the second half of this year due to low interest rates and the release of "suppressed demand."

A report by Morgan Stanley said as the worry of an interest rate hike lessens and the unemployment rate remains at a relatively low level, it is predicted that the "suppressed demand" for flats may help lift the home price.

The bank forecasts home prices going up by 5 percent in the second half.

. . .

 

Buggle Lau Ka-fai, chief analyst at Midland Realty, said the limited supply of local super-luxury flats will spur an increase in prices.

Meanwhile in the primary market, Sino Land (0083) offloaded 22 flats of its new project in Sai Kung, Park Mediterranean, in the first hour of sales yesterday.

Hang Seng Bank (0011) head of retail banking and wealth management Margaret Kwan Wing-han said there were only an average of 2,000 new mortgages per month in the first quarter, but there had been an average of around 6,000 per month in the second quarter.
====
MORE : http://www.thestandard.com.hk/section-news.php?id=171818

Sure. Why not.
Property stocks bottomed some time ago, and are well off their lows.

I bought HK-10 too soon last year at $26, and then saw a 25% drop all the way down to $19.46. But HK-10 is now back above $26, and my position is in profit, with $50,000+ in dividends collected. But I am lightening up now, since I do not expect this (temporary?) rally to last, and expect lower lows in the months and years to come - given the supply that is coming.

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Sold down at $26.35, to 20% of my original position in HL/ HK10, because of this:

 

The Rally in HK stocks may be ending

 

HK:HSI / Hang Seng Index near 23,000 ... update - at 22,932, back to 610d MA

HSI_zpszewtplbx.gif

 

China too?

 

CN:ShComp / Shanghai Composite Index ... update

ShComp_zpsvvpbgidd.gif

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Running into resistance - two Hang Lung stocks, and a mainland China REIT

 

870001/ Hui Xian + HLP (10) and HLG (101)... update

 

870001_zpsomoydvbw.gif

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"... for consumers who are net-short (living in HK, have real estate needs) like yourself, this will take away from supply in the secondary market. But a 30% upfront stamp duty on foreigners who purchase HK residential today....I guess hot money will flow either to commercial / industrial / carparks or an even more sensible decision is hot money flows from mainland simply avoid HK and move on elsewhere... " - Stagflation

 

Another idea:

Buy HK Property developer shares when they are cheap...

And use the dividend to pay rent

 

HK-10 / Hang Lung Group ... 3-years : 1-year :

HLG-3yrs_zpskioouure.gif

 

I bought over Hk$ 1.2 Million of Hang Lung shares, and cashed HKD 50,000 in dividends, and a capital gain, which allowed my to cover my first year of Rent

I sold out, and am awaiting a re-entry opportunity

 

> HL thread: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=20302

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Good advice as always. HK property companies are (in general) cheaper than HK property (discount to NAV and better yields) and come without the punitive stamp duty but, as a group, they are some distance from their lows.

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Good advice as always. HK property companies are (in general) cheaper than HK property (discount to NAV and better yields) and come without the punitive stamp duty but, as a group, they are some distance from their lows.

 

Yes. Exactly.

Patience will be rewarded, I think

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Well, they got quite a bit closer to their lows today :)

 

Getting tempting - especially NWD (HK:17) which offers a trailing yield of around 5% which I think is fairly secure.

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Hang Lung is falling again

 

HK10 ... 5-years // Last: $28.60 -$0.95, -3.21% / HK-101: $16.82 -$0.54, -3.11%

HK10-5yrs_zpsg689xojw.gif

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HK-10 / Hang Lung - fits the same Cycle

 

Two-year cycle in China, & Emerging Markets - could bottom in about one year

 

Look how closely they move together!

A negative year ahead for all three? (and China too, unless the RMB collapses)

 

EEM - vs. FXI and Hk-HSI ... update : EEM-alone : FXI : HK-HSI : HK-10 : CN:ShComp :

 

EEM-etc_zpshafpnrny.gif

 

HK-10 - fits the same two-year Cycle ... update

HK10-All_zpsolnivqyr.gif

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Not sure if the formatting will show when I put it in the next post, but I did a high-level comparison of 5 established HK property stocks Hang Lung (101), CK Property (1113), Henderson (12), K Wah (173) and New World (17). As expected, the discounts to NAV have widened with the recent downward movements in share prices. However, the interesting thing for me is that the two companies in this group with moderate net debt level (K Wah (25% net debt) and New World (44% net debt) are trading at much higher discounts to NAV (54% and 57% respectively ) than the two companies with close to zero net debt (Hang Lung Property and CK Property - both around 2% net debt and 43% and 31% discount to NAV respectively ). Henderson sits somewhere in the middle.

 

Obviously, these are not "apples to apples" comparisons - K Wah has a substantial non-property asset through its shareholding in Galaxy (27), New World has its hotel interests and investment in NWS (659) etc etc but, at the moment, the better value seems to be with the more highly geared companies. As an aside, the Galaxy share price is currently ahead of where it was at the half year mark adding about HK$1.5 billion to the NAV increasing the discount to NAV to around 58%. Similar adjustments can be made for some of the other companies as well.

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"Hang Lung ... very interesting near $26, 17" - sep.2015

Now: $27.50, $18.70, with yields: 6.20% and 4.44%
- Time for an update!

5-years: HK10/#138826 : HK101/#137026 : Both: 870001 : / 10d: HK10 : HK101 : Both : 870001

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Stock- : End-14 : End15 : End16 : End17 : Bk-Val : Divs / $-Last :
HK10- : $35.20 : $25.20 : $27.00 : $28.75 : $00.00 :
HK101 : $21.75 : $17.64 : $16.44 : $19.10 : $00.00 :
HuiXian $03.48 : $03.33 : $03.14 : $03.14 : $00.00 :
Hk-HSI: 23,605 : 21,914 : 22,001 : 29,919 : 00,000 :
EEM--- : $39.29 : $32.19 : $35.01 : $47.12 : $00.00 :
GLD/au 113.58 : 101.46 : 109.61 : 123.65 : 000.00 :
10/101:  R-1.00 : r-1.00 : r-1.00 : r-1.00 : r-1.00 :
10/ChR  R-1.00 : r-1.00 : r-1.00 : r-1.00 : r-1.00 :

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