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Van

Is the Bull Market FINALLY over?

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Bumping this thread.. 

As DrB is fond of saying, "anything can happen", and the market has been defying out bearish overtures as the bull run has gone on. It's now the 2nd oldest bull market in history. I don't know how much longer it can go on.. perhaps we have already just recently seen the peak, but I have learnt to keep an open mind. It would not suprise me if we see Dow30k  in the next few months, but equally it would not surprise me if we fall below 20k.

I do notice that there is significant divergence now. European indices look very weak and have a LOT of work to do to claw back the highs. Another leg down would make a strong case for a bear market.

I have no equity exposure, but I'm not trying to short it in any meaningful way either.

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I bought Straddles a few weeks ago when VIX was extremely low.

And I sold the Put side in the recent selloff, to recover 90% of my cost.

I am now awaiting a chance to sell off the Call side, when I think the market is stalling out.

Have I missed the rebound moment?  Maybe, Maybe not ... Jan2019-$285C

xx

I note that Tony Caldaro, who has been highly accurate still thinks we will see a new High, to end this Bull phase

xx

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An Apocalyptic Paul Tudor Jones Warns The Fed Is About To Lose Control

In a striking interview with Goldman's Allison Nathan, legendary trader Paul Tudor Jones argues that US inflation is set to accelerate sharply, making bonds a very poor investment, and that the Fed must act swiftly to tackle financial bubbles created by prolonged monetary easing.

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The stock market looks poised to Slide Lower...

- But that not mean it will happen

I follow these Two Bear instruments to see it a breakout is happening - that might be associated with a bear market
 

FAZ & TZA ... update

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Midterm election years the weakest for stocks?

 

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