Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
Van

Is the Bull Market FINALLY over?

Recommended Posts

The daily action in the Dow is not promising at all.. each morning the optimism gets sold and it goes negative. Very reminiscent of early 2008 imo. Back then I remember watching the markets fall 5% one day, putting in a lower low, and then saying to everyone "bear market has officially started" (and of course was met with skepticism).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not looking good right now. New two year lows, I'm looking out for in the next three months to confirm we're in the bear market for the longer term.

 

S&P500 closes beneath 1,800pts

 

NASDAQ closes beneath 4,000pts

 

FTSE All Share - already there beneath 3,300pts. Dr Bubb did say the FTSE was acting as a predictor for the US.... yesterday was definitely predictable by that measure.

 

VT world stock index - already there beneath 56 - currently at 53.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

FTSE All Share - already there beneath 3,300pts. Dr Bubb did say the FTSE was acting as a predictor for the US.... yesterday was definitely predictable by that measure.

 

 

FTSE is of course quite commodity heavy, so it's under-performance is not a surprise. I'm not sure I buy into the idea that it "leads" the US. I can, however, easily believe that the US is often the last market to confirm a fall as it is traditionally seen as a flight to safety and, of course, our friends at the PPT.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

"Abandon ship - she's going down, Capt'n!"

 

New lows are being made.. serious technical damage being inflicted on all the main indexes.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

FTSE is now within spitting distance of official >20% decline bear market territory..

 

7122 X 0.8 = 5697

 

currently flittering within 1% of that mark.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Another nail in the coffin for the bull market.

COMP/NDX very weak in recent sessions.. unless they can stage a recovery today it will be the lowest close since Nov 2014.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As the markets sink to new lows, I would say that all 9 of the standard Weinstein indicators are now flashing Bear, and the final indicator (sentiment) is nowhere near bearish enough to be contrarian.

 

Now considering that the most markets made their highs in H1-2015, I am wondering how much lower there is to go..? Perhaps another year until we reach the ultimate bottom?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Stock markets look bearish, although Gold isn't bullish at the moment. There's plenty of debt and geopolitical stuff going on around us so it won't take much for this correction to become a crash, perhaps a slow motion one.

 

8MY75vL.jpg

 

 

 

 

 

TQh5zGR.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Jp Morgan Boss Spends Annual Salary On Jp Morgan Stock - History Rhymes?

canute%255B1%255D.jpg

Jamie Dimon, chief executive officer of JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N), on Thursday bought 500,000 shares of the company's stock for more than $25 million, according to a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

JPMorgan shares closed at $53.07 on Thursday. The stock has fallen nearly 20 percent this year, in line with the decline of the KBW Bank Stock index .BKX.

JPMorgan shares have fallen as the outlook for bank profits has dimmed with expectations of continued low interest rates, higher costs for bad loans, particularly related to energy, and a slow economy.

11th Feb 2016

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-jpmorgan-ceo-stock-idUSKCN0VK2KL

----Roll back to 1929

 

Top American Bankers Try to Save the Banking System

 

On the next day, Friday, October 25, several of the nation’s largest bankers met to decide what they could do about the situation. Among the attendees were the heads of Morgan Bank, Chase National Bank, and National City Bank. The bankers ultimately decided to purchase a number of U.S. Steel shares above market price. A similar tactic worked to end a previous stock market scare in 1907 when the New York Stock Exchange plummeted, causing many banks and businesses to file bankruptcy. American banker J.P. Morgan and a few other bankers bailed out the banking system using their own money. The bankers who tried to thwart the 1929 stock market crash were unsuccessful. There were positive results, but they were short lived.

 

In those days, the stock market traded six days a week instead of five. The bankers’ move led to a slight increase in stock price on Saturday, October 26. But over the weekend many investors lost faith in the stocks and decided to sell their shares. When the markets reopened on Monday, October 28, 1929, another record number of stocks were traded and the stock market declined more than 22%. The situation worsened yet again on the infamous Black Tuesday, October 29, 1929 when more than 16 million stocks were traded. The stock market ultimately lost $14 billion that day.

http://www.themoneyalert.com/stockmarketcrashof1929.html

 

JPM Stock price for future reference - it made a new 2 year low.

 

1.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Good find, Commander T!

CEO buys his own stock in supreme display of confidence - talk about hubris.

 

FWIW I tend to place a LOT of faith in the annual cycle - that markets tend to do best from Oct-Apr, and worse over May-Sept. I think if you only look at performance in those two periods, the vast majority of the market's gains are made in the Oct-Apr period. So while I think there is a real "crash" still to come, it wouldn't surprise me to see a bounce from here back about FTSE 6,000 before the next leg of the bear market.

 

edit: I can't find the chart, but here is a good article on it

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/personal-finance/sell-in-may-and-go-away-is-it-a-myth-or-a-stock-market-reality-1.2190655

 

"While a $10,000 November-April investment in the Dow Jones Industrial Average would have compounded to over $800,000 over the last 65 years, investors would actually have been nursing a small loss if they had invested only in the May-October period."

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

After the predicted Dip in Gold - a stampede?

 

Elites Set to Wipe Out Stock Market Shorts Before Next Downwave...

 

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016 Feb 01, 2016

By: Clive_Maund

stockmarket.gif

diamond.gifThe recovery rally in the US stockmarket that we have been expecting for a week or two started on Friday with a robust advance that gathered strength into the close. The trigger was Japan's announcement that it is going into NIRP (Negative Interest Rate Policy) in a big way, which means that as they slip deeper into the abyss of bankruptcy they are going to resort to robbing savers. This is real "endgame stuff" - another milestone on the road to ruin, and it looks like it was the result of the Japanese attendees at Davos being taken to one side and given their "marching orders". The US stockmarket reveled in this news of course, because it means that the Fed's proposed interest rate rises will never happen and instead they will get ready to launch a massive QE blitz, in concert with Central Banks around the world, in a desperate effort to fend off the gathering forces of deflation. The end result of this QE blitz will be hyperinflation and chaos. At some point the penny will drop with investors and there will be a stampede into gold and silver, although latest COTs suggest that this is still some way off.

 

stock-market-shorts-1.png

2/

stock-market-shorts-3.png

==

> http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article53882.html

 

We might get a stock rally now, accompanied by a 4-8 week pullback in the Gold price

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

DOWNSIDE CROSS looks inevitable - so SELL this Rally !

 

A closer look at the 14 x 18 month Crossovers / i.e. Brown MA crosses Blue, making a confirmation

 

Monthly : SPX

SPX-20yr_zps2wrqe9tk.png

 

Weekly : 5-yrs-SPX

: About to cross? Any month now - inevitable so long as SPX stays below the 14 mo - MA as it is now

Cross-SPX-5yr_zpsyelqjowk.gif

When the present rally is finished, Watch out Below !

 

2/

Monthly : T-Note

Gold_zpsqs0bi0it.png

Weekly : 5-yrs-GLD : GDX : GDXJ : SLV : SLW : RGLD :

: This looks promising, but the 14mo MA hasn't crossed over above the 18mo MA yet - it may soon,

and the strong upside volume is an indication that the cross is likely unless Gold drops back

Cross-GLD-5yrB_zpsesufawnc.gif

 

3/

Monthly : T-Notes, 10 years

TBond-10yr_zpsok30zicq.png

 

Weekly : 5-yrs-TLT : XLF- crossed ! : BKX : IYR : PHM :

:Still moving higher, upwards trend is intact

Cross-TLT-5yr_zpspxclbixf.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Decapitation? A Major turn now in place?

 

European Markets are getting clocked today

 

World Markets
Nikkei- 225 : 16,601.: - 0.40%
Hang Seng : 21,043.: - 1.20%
FTSE- 100 : 6,134.4 : - 1.57%
DAX-------- : 9,873.9 : - 2.13%

 

UKX / FTSE-100 ... update : UKX-etc

UKX_zps5ryhwkvx.gif

 

SOXX-etc

UKX-etc_zpszo9lcr3n.gif

 

Global stock markets may have been decapitated yesterday.

Several markets gapped down, and left in place a formation at the top, that looks similar to an Island Reversal.

 

This may be associated partly with the realization that Brexit and the break-up of the EU is a real possibility

 

(in edit):

The Brexit drop did not last long, and the UK markets went on to rally to new highs for the year.

I had some puts in place before the Brexit drop - put them on prematurely, But managed to exit the Puts with a profit

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(It is time to revive this thread)

 

I Bought SPY PUTS on Friday, in anticipation of what I thought could be...

A KEY REVERSAL... and it was !

Also note the "toppy" long term chart for bonds

 

SPY Stocks / 10d

SPY-10d_zpstund32ot.gif=

 

 

 

A CHART to watch now: TLT / Bonds !

 

TLT / Long-Bond etf ... update : All-data / 10-d : LAST: 138.36-0.81 / O: 139.73, H: 140.69, L: 138.22 / Vol: 11.9mn

1-year

TLT_zpst58tf0aa.gif

All-data

TLT-all_zpsyszp2y80.gif

 

 

A Key Reversal !

 

Here's Why Markets Loved Janet Yellen's Speech at Jackson Hole
Fortune- 6 hours ago
That's the takeaway from the Fed Chair speech Friday morning at the Kansas City Fed's annual gathering in Jackson Hole, Wyo. Yellen had ...
Stocks Fall After Yellen's Remarks
Wall Street Journal- 2 hours ago

 

=

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

you-shall-not-pass.png

 

According to Core Spreads’ Chief Market Strategist Sandy Jadeja, the market may have hit an upside barrier today. Not because Janet Yellen spoke today at Jackson Hole and, once again, said rates hikes were in our future or because stock buybacks appear to be tanking.

No. For Jadeja—being a hard-core market technician—it’s all about “price, pattern, and time.” Specifically, he’s forecasting three key dates or time windows where the market may hit a “barrier to the upside,” he told listeners last month on our podcast.

 

The first time window starts today, Friday, August 26th, and lasts until August 30th. The other two dates are September 26th and October 20th.

We should confess that predictions of this nature are something that we don’t usually pay much attention to at Financial Sense but, according to Business Insider, Jadeja has made a number of very accurate calls in the past.

 

Consider The man who accurately predicted 4 market crashes told us 3 more dates to worry about this year:

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

sp500.png

 

Nice "Santa Rally". The market might expect Trump's reign to be bullish. Not too late for a bull trap, but the large volume should reduce that probability.

Goldman, and JP Morgan stocks have blasted off like rockets since the election result.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

×